Search found 555 matches

by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How have your homes as investments done?
Replies: 213
Views: 21091

Re: How have your homes as investments done?

Think my post got lost. Anyways, had a 20% IRR on the first house before the cost of upgrades, but haven't calculated that impact - maybe net 12-15%. That includes imputed rent, insurance, repairs, etc. Bought on the outskirts of the Bay Area during local housing recession, and sold just a few years...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you all do in the month of May, 2019
Replies: 125
Views: 9773

Re: How did you all do in the month of May, 2019

Hmm. I had no idea. Took a look. About 4% decline. Obv., am not concerned, though i'd really like to see a solid gain this year.
by Portfolio7
Sun May 19, 2019 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mid Caps have outperformed Large & Small for the past 50 years. Yet I see very little recommendation for them. Why?
Replies: 74
Views: 8500

Re: Mid Caps have outperformed Large & Small for the past 50 years. Yet I see very little recommendation for them. Why?

I am a fan of mid-cap funds. I have about 30% of my portfolio in Midcap or Midcap-leaning funds, (LC/SC/REITs/Stable Value Fund make up the rest. I don't try to classify REITs by cap size.) I've had up to 40% Midcap in the past.
by Portfolio7
Sun May 19, 2019 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me design a 401k fund menu
Replies: 29
Views: 1494

Re: Help me design a 401k fund menu

How many funds are you allowed, and are there restrictions? I built this lineup for DW's small business. They had 40 options. I just dropped this version into the note for ease, but it was not the final version, though it's close. In any case, the intent was less to get all 40 funds nailed down than...
by Portfolio7
Thu May 16, 2019 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?
Replies: 129
Views: 8319

Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Nope. My AA is already as aggressive (80/20) as it's allowed to be under current circumstances.
by Portfolio7
Sat May 11, 2019 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast
Replies: 28
Views: 3985

Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Thanks for the kind words. Podcasts are an important part of my information flow, and given the increasing number of high quality ones, I find that I'm slowly bumping off what used to be "must listen" subscriptions as they get replaced by even better ones. Five years ago I wouldn't miss an "In Our ...
by Portfolio7
Sat May 11, 2019 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 17 of our 18 equity-focused American Funds have delivered index-beating lifetime results.
Replies: 34
Views: 3067

Re: 17 of our 18 equity-focused American Funds have delivered index-beating lifetime results.

American funds have a long history of strong performance, but the outperformance seems to be an artifact of prior decades now. In any case the front end loads on some fund classes are a heavy price to pay, by my math it would take decades of outperformance to make up for that. The no-load 401k funds...
by Portfolio7
Tue May 07, 2019 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 2019 the year of the mid-cap fund? Does active beat out index sometimes?
Replies: 13
Views: 2003

Re: Is 2019 the year of the mid-cap fund? Does active beat out index sometimes?

Yes, I'm in Vanguard Midcap Growth Index fund. I don't worry about getting beaten by any of (how many?) the numerous active funds out there. I'm sure it happens, and for years at a time... but Index funds usually play out pretty well in the long run. Umm you realize that Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth is ...
by Portfolio7
Thu May 02, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 2019 the year of the mid-cap fund? Does active beat out index sometimes?
Replies: 13
Views: 2003

Re: Is 2019 the year of the mid-cap fund? Does active beat out index sometimes?

Yes, I'm in Vanguard Midcap Growth Index fund. I don't worry about getting beaten by any of (how many?) the numerous active funds out there. I'm sure it happens, and for years at a time... but Index funds usually play out pretty well in the long run.
by Portfolio7
Thu May 02, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 219
Views: 23708

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

Age 49/51 80% equity / 20% Fixed Income
by Portfolio7
Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement studies for different asset allocations
Replies: 8
Views: 1299

Re: Retirement studies for different asset allocations

I think there are at least three components that make the question of AA in retirement a difficult one to answer: 1) Higher equity allocations tend to be more successful in retirement and 2) Higher volatility portfolios tend to be less successful in decumulation, and 3) sequence of returns risk (SOR...
by Portfolio7
Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is factor-based small-value/Fama-French tilting worth it?
Replies: 101
Views: 5901

Re: Is factor-based small-value/Fama-French tilting worth it?

I think tilting to size (small, midcap) can make sense. Both have long term returns in excess of large cap. The catch is that you pay for it with volatility.... at least with small cap. Midcap appears to maybe have some higher efficiency vs small or large caps, with higher nominal return, but only m...
by Portfolio7
Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1920100

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Wanted to bump this thread. No posts here for 11 days now. Wonder where all of the bears are hibernating? (S&P currently at 2947) I appreciate all the bears that balance folks like me: because of them the market advance has been measured and manageable, and despite some short term 20% drops here an...
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How and when did you do it - to get to 1 Million
Replies: 130
Views: 27356

Re: How and when did you do it - to get to 1 Million

Started saving I was about 27,DW 25. Roughly 14% of low-end professional income, now about 11%. At 46 we hit $1M NW. At 50, we passed $1M of invested financial assets. We've some things work against us over the past 15 years, my pension has been slowly stripped, DW's business has had growing pains, ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension Govt vs a High match job with higher pay.
Replies: 16
Views: 1826

Re: Pension Govt vs a High match job with higher pay.

Just back-of-the-envelope thinking, but you make $84K per year in future value of your pension for every year you work. That takes your salary up to (58 + 84 =) $142K. As long as the gov't pension is secure, to me it's a no brainer to stay where you are, if low risk and financial security are the on...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 953
Views: 94939

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Interestingly enough, June July and August are fine, it's September that's the problem. Feb and May are marginal. July appears to be the best month of all from 1928 to 2018, per Yardeni's data. Of course, 2016 and 2018 are mostly inverted, showing pretty good results for May - Sept. Also, this past ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early Retirement Now "Yield Curve Inversion: Eight Reasons Why I'm Not Worried Yet"
Replies: 4
Views: 981

Re: Early Retirement Now "Yield Curve Inversion: Eight Reasons Why I'm Not Worried Yet"

My sense is the inversion is overblown. I shift my AA depending on moving average indicators, and I'm as aggressive as my process allows (80/20), but I am keeping an eye on employment. Attached is commentary from folks who I like to follow: From Tim Duy, well known for his insightful commentary on t...
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: ESG Strategy Performance
Replies: 1
Views: 448

Re: Larry Swedroe: ESG Strategy Performance

I would agree with the conclusion that ESG buyers are willing to pay extra for 'psychological gain' as you put it. However, Larry's view seems very cursory. Yes, Parnassus and others with high fees are going to be trailing non ESG funds, that's mathematically a near certainty over the long run. Howe...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Socially Responsible [Investing]
Replies: 58
Views: 3791

Re: Socially Responsible [Investing]

It seems to me that responsible companies can carry a lot of goodwill both in terms of cachet and honest to goodness customer desire to do the right thing. Sometimes that goodwill will translate into profit. Whole Foods comes to mind, before the Amazon Purchase. REI has a certain cachet. Many many m...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s
Replies: 285
Views: 16706

Re: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s

Good advice I've already passed on to my son. Aim for FI by 40. That is SO tough. I graduated from West Point; so, I had no student loans. I've made a good salary by most standards. I started clearing 6 figures by around 30 y/o (2012). Even prior to that, during two deployments where expenses were ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Boglehead opinion of the inverted yield curve?
Replies: 63
Views: 5175

Re: What is the Boglehead opinion of the inverted yield curve?

If there is a recession and the equity markets move down, I will be happy, because I have cash and liquid assets lined up to cover withdrawals for 10+ years. If there is no recession and the equity markets move up, I will be happy, because my stocks will go up. No matter what happens, I will be hap...
by Portfolio7
Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forecasting future returns / net worth
Replies: 10
Views: 1361

Re: Forecasting future returns / net worth

I think you can do it either way. I prefer nominal, with an after the fact conversion to real. To me, this seems more direct; and you don't get confused by whether all of your assumptions are consistent... you just convert the results. Using real converts up front, so all the calcs are in constant d...
by Portfolio7
Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what makes an investment
Replies: 20
Views: 825

Re: what makes an investment

If I bought shovels in New York in 1849 with the intent of selling to local farmers, odds of making a big profit may have been pretty modest... If I bought shovels in SF in 1849, it may have been the best of investments. In both cases, the intent is to make profit. Both are investments. But perhaps ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s
Replies: 285
Views: 16706

Re: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s

Good advice I've already passed on to my son. Aim for FI by 40. I'm in my early 50's, and have been dodging layoffs at my workplace for 25 years while the number of US employees has been cut in half. For a long time we really needed my job, and I put in crazy hours. Still do, to a large degree... I'...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Insurance Products better than the Stock Market?
Replies: 22
Views: 1785

Re: Any Insurance Products better than the Stock Market?

Insurance products are Insurance, not investing products. They are there to protect you from events which you are vulnerable from. This is why SPIAs seem to be the most popular insurance product on the BH site (relative to retirement... not talking health or car or home insurance here, to be clear)....
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 953
Views: 94939

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Small caps are on a tear from the December lows. Good thing I only think of market timing and never do it :happy I knew this day would come when I pour new money into VBR religiously. VBR (small cap value) has shown some signs of life, though VBK (small cap growth) continues to outperform. I don't ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 148
Views: 19357

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

U.S. stocks are nuts. Shiller CAPE now stands at 33.36 and the only time in history it was higher was Feb, 1998 to Mar 2001 which would have been a wild ride. If you had gotten out of stocks in Feb 1998 you could have stayed out for 12 years and gotten back in at the price you sold, meanwhile makin...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich Dad / Poor Dad Investing Theory
Replies: 74
Views: 5561

Re: Rich Dad / Poor Dad Investing Theory

I think of a home as forced savings. If you for some reason see amazing price appreciation, as we did in California, just thank your lucky stars. The smallest house you can live in forever is the best buy. There is a version of Life called Redneck Life, which is hilarious, but it also is very accura...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Bipartisan retirement bill [to upgrade 401k plans]
Replies: 17
Views: 2689

Re: New Bipartisan retirement bill

It would seem logical that multi-employer plans would translate to lower costs for small businesses with existing plans... which would be potentially actionable! Anyone know if that's actually the case? I worry that many plans are implemented because they carry virtually no cost to the employer but ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans
Replies: 46
Views: 4895

Re: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans

I'm going to guess Colorado, for one. That might be fixed in 30 years if they stick to the plan: Colorado Gov. John W. Hickenlooper Jr. signed into law on June 4 a pension reform bill designed to reduce investment risk and improve the funded status of the state's public employee retirement system. A...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich Dad / Poor Dad Investing Theory
Replies: 74
Views: 5561

Re: Rich Dad / Poor Dad Investing Theory

Klangfool, Sure, I get where you are trying to go, and well, everyone has a different definition of the 'real world'. I think we agree on the importance of investing only in assets that increase your wealth. As for how one describes that, it's pretty clear we perceive that differently. We'll have to...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What accounts do you have for your kids?
Replies: 27
Views: 1741

Re: What accounts do you have for your kids?

I think it's more important HOW you introduce such accounts to your kids. The education comes first, but then the process itself can be a good thing also. They both had savings accounts when about 10, joint with us of course, and this worked well to teach them some basic concepts of how we handle mo...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich Dad / Poor Dad Investing Theory
Replies: 74
Views: 5561

Re: Rich Dad / Poor Dad Investing Theory

You are attempting to assert that the proper definition of an asset is whether it makes you wealthier. The proper term for that is 'productive asset'. If you don't like that term, I suggest you choose a different term than 'asset', because that term is already taken. All you do is muddle the issue ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich Dad / Poor Dad Investing Theory
Replies: 74
Views: 5561

Re: Rich Dad / Poor Dad Investing Theory

KlangFool - Stop please. Houses are assets under the traditional definition of asset. You are trying to make up your own definition, then continually argue with everyone who doesn't agree with your definition. That's annoying, unnecessary, and pointless. Home are assets because they can be sold for...
by Portfolio7
Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich Dad / Poor Dad Investing Theory
Replies: 74
Views: 5561

Re: Rich Dad / Poor Dad Investing Theory

This from a Forbes Article posted Oct 10, 2012: https://www.forbes.com/sites/helaineolen/2012/10/10/rich-dad-poor-dad-bankrupt-dad/#72f54950633a Kiyosaki was one of the small-time wealth guru mountebanks who made it to the big-time in the aughts by telling his forever falling behind audience that th...
by Portfolio7
Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deferring HSA by paying medical Out-of-Pocket: Overblown?
Replies: 42
Views: 3641

Re: Deferring HSA by paying medical Out-of-Pocket: Overblown?

My thoughts are: 3)During retirement, Roth IRA distributions and 401k would be more valuable because they can be used for ANY expenses. That's why it would make more sense to max those out before building up an HSA nest egg since HSA is limited to medical expenses not covered by medicare. 4)Spendin...
by Portfolio7
Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else gotten totally bored with investing?
Replies: 142
Views: 22846

Re: Anyone else gotten totally bored with investing?

In some ways, yes... I know enough to realize that I'm best off with a stable AA and to just let it ride. Since my portfolio is slice and dice, there is a tiny bit of maintenance I do, but the truth is I could walk away for a year and come back and it would make no difference. The elemental characte...
by Portfolio7
Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I hate bonds
Replies: 116
Views: 13120

Re: I hate bonds

I agree with you. While the mechanics of bonds are pretty straightforward, the differences between various kinds and the math involved takes a little time to really comprehend. I am definitely not in that group that fully comprehends; I know enough to know I have a ways to go. Honestly I knew more a...
by Portfolio7
Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zero federal tax. Will this cause an audit?
Replies: 43
Views: 4210

Re: Zero federal tax. Will this cause an audit?

At the end of the tax review section Turbo Tax gives you an audit risk evaluation (mine is always low). They also try to sell you an audit defense package which you should not waste $44.99 on. You can use the "Forms" view in Turbo Tax to look at the actual IRS forms that will be filed and the works...
by Portfolio7
Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion
Replies: 100
Views: 8422

Re: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion

An inverted yield curve is typically a sign of financial stress in US Markets, but what I read seems to show mostly strength, with only a few marginal weakness in the US key indicators thus far (shrug).

I'm not doing anything to respond to this news.
by Portfolio7
Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small/Emer Tilt vs 3Fund - Anyone ?
Replies: 17
Views: 950

Re: Small/Emer Tilt vs 3Fund - Anyone ?

Yes, EM, Mid cap and Small Cap. Plus Minimum Volatility. Domestic stocks are tilted to growth, EM to value.

Why... to keep it short, I try to use high volatility segments of the market that play pretty well together, but I'm not above trying to catch a trend here or there.
by Portfolio7
Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 75
Views: 11177

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

I don't know whether over the long term rates are going to go up, down, or remain stable. I do expect them to go up somewhat in the short term, as they already have largely due to the FED. For decades until recently the pressure on rates has been to the downside. What is different now is that QE is...
by Portfolio7
Sat Mar 23, 2019 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 10% Gold increase or decrease risk?
Replies: 83
Views: 4652

Re: Does 10% Gold increase or decrease risk?

I think it's a bit presumptuous to assume that someone else is NOT looking at the portfolio as a whole. Let's take that as a given. Note that there was a time when I was more enthusiastic about gold, but over time have become less and less convinced, to the point I'm rather agnostic. I don't believe...
by Portfolio7
Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2338
Views: 420558

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Hey guys, I prepared this bar chart to show progression of my networth. Let me know what you think All figures are in SGD '000 https://i.imgur.com/4nnc3Oc.png ' I think your savings are growing twice as fast as mine ever did. Nice work! Looks like you've hit critical mass, unless you have a crazy h...
by Portfolio7
Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2338
Views: 420558

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

As of Thursday 9.8% 70/30. Same place I was in Sept. Today's yield inversion means I'll be back down a bit today. Meh. That's investing for you.
by Portfolio7
Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: exotic ETFs
Replies: 16
Views: 1084

Re: exotic ETFs

Well, there is WOOD if you have a mind to invest in lumber for some reason, and PUTW if you are looking for a non-bond alternative... then those 2x and 3x leverage etf's. Guess I'm not far enough off the beaten path to offer anything more than that.
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 10% Gold increase or decrease risk?
Replies: 83
Views: 4652

Re: Does 10% Gold increase or decrease risk?

Replacing Bonds with Gold has worked ok for a portfolio... but Bonds still have generally offered a better counterpart to equities in terms of risk adjusted returns as well as actual nominal returns. Dropping a little gold into a portfolio doesn't seem to have improved the portfolio risk/reward cha...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 10% Gold increase or decrease risk?
Replies: 83
Views: 4652

Re: Does 10% Gold increase or decrease risk?

Replacing Bonds with Gold has worked ok for a portfolio... but Bonds still have generally offered a better counterpart to equities in terms of risk adjusted returns as well as actual nominal returns. Dropping a little gold into a portfolio doesn't seem to have improved the portfolio risk/reward char...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does 20% extra of portfolio allocated to equities get you?
Replies: 128
Views: 9232

Re: What does 20% extra of portfolio allocated to equities get you?

There is certainly a balancing act involved. We can agree on that point. It's called personal finance for good reason. I suppose my problem with focusing on volatility is that the likelihood of a fluctuating value of an investment between the time of purchase and sale is only meaningful to the exte...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fell in Love with Fidelity
Replies: 103
Views: 12862

Re: Fell in Love with Fidelity

My 401K access routes through Fidelity, and I very much appreciate the capabilities they offer. I've moved all our IRAs and past 401k accounts to Fidelity. I like that I can talk to a person at the local office. My fees are very low; I've paid a few minor trading fees when I wanted something outside...