Search found 626 matches

by Portfolio7
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2516
Views: 462697

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

+15.4%. Detracting from a YTD model portfolio with our same AA of 16.1% is having a significant portion of our fixed income in stable value versus nominal bonds. Coming up on first year in retirement at the end of the month and I'm just pleased it didn't start out like 1966 (knock on wood)! All my ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not market timing is hard
Replies: 31
Views: 3134

Re: Not market timing is hard

I hear you. You and I make a market. My AA carries as much stock as my IPS allows (I allow myself some variance.)

I am ultra bullish at the moment, and looking for loopholes in my IPS so I can invest more stock! :greedy (I'm joking about looking for loopholes, but it's crossed my mind!).
by Portfolio7
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12340
Views: 2123319

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Eh. The perma bulls will be right one day. Just not today. I've never met a permabull. Are they related to the snipe? If I were hunting Perma-Bulls I'd start by tracking Ken Fisher; the dude's been 100% equities since the late 1990's if I recall right. He's easier to track now, one just needs to fo...
by Portfolio7
Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 103
Views: 8952

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

For a group that has decided to take their retirement strategy into their own hands, this board is curiously passive about leaving SS to someone else. About the only way I have of wresting at least a little control back is to claim early. This is true, and I have considered that as well. For now, I...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1876
Views: 194913

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Momentum and Minimum Volatility are looking a little shaky, but yeah, most everything is up. I've been investing for 25 years, and at this point my future is driven by the market. My contributions are still significant, but are the less critical factor in building wealth now. I have to trust the mar...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2516
Views: 462697

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I disagree. If there are no contributions or withdrawals, FOGU's example is good enough (except for the minor correction I stated above). If there are contributions or withdrawals, it gets complicated. But a back of the envelope calculation can add half the total of contributions minus withdrawals ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 103
Views: 8952

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

Yes, the Motley Fool article is right, as far as it goes. This same result came out of my own personal modelling, and it surprised me. I posted on a Kitces blog and he was kind enough to respond to me to both confirm the math and point out the several other issues at play (all of which have been men...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two competing investing philosophies: buy and hold vs. move to indexing
Replies: 7
Views: 577

Re: Two competing investing philosophies: buy and hold vs. move to indexing

Buy and Hold is a guideline, not a straight-jacket IMO. It's meant to prevent performance chasing, and even BH's rebalance. I guess I am something of an active investor myself by way of disclosure, since I do buy and sell. My AA really hasn't changed all that much over the years, but I can't claim t...
by Portfolio7
Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Difficulty lnvesting a Windfall
Replies: 25
Views: 3256

Re: Difficulty lnvesting a Windfall

Just this morning I moved a sizeable amount from the Settlement Fund to Total Stock Market. It wasn't easy but already my anxiety level is much reduced! I will proceed following Portfolio7's example: If the issue really rests with how quickly you buy into equities.... I'd just close my eyes and pus...
by Portfolio7
Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 233
Views: 20589

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

This is interesting. Just did it real quick, but if I'm right, the sum of the long positions, open and close, is a return of 18.5% YTD - assuming an equal % was invested in each. That's not too far from actual YTD returns. I didn't bother with the shorts, the sea of red dissuaded me.
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 29, 2019 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Difficulty lnvesting a Windfall
Replies: 25
Views: 3256

Re: Difficulty lnvesting a Windfall

It sounds like you are ok buying the equity portion of your portfolio, but hesitant on bonds? I don't think there's anything wrong with an Equity / Cash portfolio, if the cash yields match bond yields. Buy your equities and hold your cash in perpetuity, or until you feel comfortable moving it to bon...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WaPo: Many Investors Have Sat Out Rally
Replies: 87
Views: 15058

Re: WaPo: Many Investors Have Sat Out Rally

Now that this thread is 10 years old, and $1 invested in the plain 'ol S&P 500 has quadrupled in 10 years, it does make some sense to reflect on what you did in those 10 years. I admit that I tried to time the market during the Euro-Greek-Bonds crisis. I don't have any idea what everybody else did....
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 174
Views: 14717

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

Reading through this thread again, I got an idea. Why not "split the difference"? Then you would be "half right" or "half wrong" whatever happens. Note that if you don't like 50% non-US on the equity side you could use VTI (or VTSAX) with VXUS or (VTIAX) and adjust the percentages to get whatever n...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2516
Views: 462697

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

14.7%. that's basically 72/28, but equities are roughly 50/50 US/Global, so that's dragging things down a bit vs US only. 1.0% over the past 12 months. 6.0% since Jan 1, 2018. AA has shifted a little in that time, but overall it's reasonably consistent with the above. Those numbers are from my large...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1876
Views: 194913

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I am going to jinx this by saying I could see another 8% by the end of the year (dodges rotting fruit thrown from the bleachers.) Investing can be so painful, but also so much fun. It's like rotisserie baseball with index funds, except an average year usually means you're winning! I look at this an...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1876
Views: 194913

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

what euphoria?.. it's been nonstop pessimism in the last two years, hardly the type of sentiment you expect before a crash. My thinking is that the euphoric stage is yet to come. Agreed. I invested through the dot.com rise and crash, and the GFC. I see nothing today that looks like the euphoria of ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1876
Views: 194913

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I am going to jinx this by saying I could see another 8% by the end of the year (dodges rotting fruit thrown from the bleachers.)

Investing can be so painful, but also so much fun. It's like rotisserie baseball with index funds, except an average year usually means you're winning!
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inside Fisher Investments
Replies: 123
Views: 11612

Re: Inside Fisher Investments

I'd be curious to hear from someone who was actually a Ken Fisher client. We see a lot of posts from refugees fleeing Ed Jones, Raymond James, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo advisors. I don't recall anyone posting about their Ken Fisher experience. Maybe his clients are so satisfied they don't leave or...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1876
Views: 194913

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

3006.72

Solid day. The S&P 500 is still growing strong, but may have given up leadership. EM/REITs looking pretty good.
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Late Starters
Replies: 66
Views: 9761

Re: Late Starters

Question: When you guys say saving do you mean maxing your 401K/IRA or just putting something away in general? I assume that for most people on this board, it means 401k/457/403 + IRA + taxable investing over the $18k and $5.5k limits. The average net worths on this forum seen to be more than just ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio
Replies: 65
Views: 10313

Re: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio

I was able to find the article below. It appears that over 1991-2017 the time frame of the chart below, Dalio's CAGR was about 12%, per the author. The S&P 500 was about 10.5% for that same time period, I believe https://www.gurufocus.com/news/607625/ray-dalio-lots-of-character-less-than-inspiring-r...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often do you look at your IRA or 401K Balances
Replies: 71
Views: 5681

Re: How often do you look at your IRA or 401K Balances

Daily, for the most part, but sometimes I will go weeks without checking. My portfolio tends to do worse when I ignore it. This is because if I'm going to leave it unattended for a long time, I tend to go with an overly conservative AA. I start thinking of all the risks and trying to balance them, a...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1876
Views: 194913

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I can't think of a time ever when there was more fear about the market, yet more potential for it to explode upwards. I'm sure I'm wrong, someone chime in. Even so - after the usual caveats that things can go south, or meander, etc etc... should Brexit, Tariffs, and corporate profits all resolve to...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1876
Views: 194913

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I can't think of a time ever when there was more fear about the market, yet more potential for it to explode upwards. I'm sure I'm wrong, someone chime in. Even so - after the usual caveats that things can go south, or meander, etc etc... should Brexit, Tariffs, and corporate profits all resolve to ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 01, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12340
Views: 2123319

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It seems the ISM manufacturing index dropped to 47.8 this month. So it goes...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 01, 2019 1:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation Approaching Age 40s
Replies: 22
Views: 2648

Re: Asset Allocation Approaching Age 40s

Early 50's and 72/28. I am comfortable anywhere between about 60/40 and 80/20. When I was 40 I was 100% stocks in my retirement funds, and had $80K or so in cash. I scaled my equity percentage back starting late 2007, which in retrospect was a really good time to have decided to reduce my volatility...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 29, 2019 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in
Replies: 92
Views: 14232

Re: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in

Spouse's TIAA is an exception to that rule. She contributed in the 1980s through about 1991. Employee contribution: $3377 Employer contribution: $6442 Value in Feb 2017 was $296,415. Clearly, the time horizon matters! Maybe not as much as you think when you adjust for inflation. :( I think the time...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 29, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in
Replies: 92
Views: 14232

Re: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in

Spouse's TIAA is an exception to that rule. She contributed in the 1980s through about 1991. Employee contribution: $3377 Employer contribution: $6442 Value in Feb 2017 was $296,415. Clearly, the time horizon matters! Maybe not as much as you think when you adjust for inflation. :( I think the time...
by Portfolio7
Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in
Replies: 92
Views: 14232

Re: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in

mrc wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:50 pm
Clearly, the time horizon matters!
+1. I tried to make a similar point in my post as well.
by Portfolio7
Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in
Replies: 92
Views: 14232

Re: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in

In my early 50's, & the importance of a high savings rate and starting young just overwhelms all the other variables. Every year earlier you start, and every extra percentage is critical. It far outweighs any AA decisions I've made (other than put the money in the market. Keeping it in cash would ha...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheets
Replies: 77
Views: 6247

Re: Spreadsheets

I have one spreadsheet that I use for most everything. Net Worth. Portfolio Allocation. Budget. Debt paydown schedules. IRR calcs on the cash flow from our business. Investment examples of compound growth for my kids. Health care plan compares. Social Security calculations (so we understand the ben...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheets
Replies: 77
Views: 6247

Re: Spreadsheets

I have one spreadsheet that I use for most everything. Net Worth. Portfolio Allocation. Budget. Debt paydown schedules. IRR calcs on the cash flow from our business. Investment examples of compound growth for my kids. Health care plan compares. Social Security calculations (so we understand the bene...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12340
Views: 2123319

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I'm pretty close to believing nobody knows nothing. The benefits of knowing something are enormous, and we know that people are really trying. In a way I would like to go back and study economics, but now I don't care enough to actually do it. I am not sure whether economics is totally hopeless, or...
by Portfolio7
Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12340
Views: 2123319

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I'm pretty close to believing nobody knows nothing. The benefits of knowing something are enormous, and we know that people are really trying. In a way I would like to go back and study economics, but now I don't care enough to actually do it. I am not sure whether economics is totally hopeless, or...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 315
Views: 36803

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Today is day one, of the resurrection **. Make sure to be fully loaded :twisted: ** The ratio of SCV/Large Growth had a large reversal today Update June 4: Just a better chart (data from Tiingo) for ppl to appreciate the opportunity set. VBR up almost 5% these past 5 trading days. That happened str...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich people are hoarding cash
Replies: 101
Views: 15958

Re: Rich people are hoarding cash

Of the BH population that answered the survey, if you are 45 or older with $1M of investible assets, well... that puts you roughly in the top 15% of American households, but also in the bottom 15% of the BH group that answered this survey. Might be 10% and 5% respectively, but was just drawing a ge...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich people are hoarding cash
Replies: 101
Views: 15958

Re: Rich people are hoarding cash

Several years ago, there were some spreadsheets made where BHs could enter a bunch of financial info, such a income, house value, etc., and "total net worth". (IIRC, these were not identified by User ID.) There were at least a few with 8 digits. I don't remember seeing any with 9. RM This was the r...
by Portfolio7
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 315
Views: 36803

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Massive good day for SCV in absolute and relative terms. Momentum and Low Vol getting whacked. Cheers :greedy SCV has shown a few signs of strength during the year, but over the past week or so SCV performance is looking strong every day. Note that vs 1 year ago, I think most SCG funds are still in...
by Portfolio7
Sun Aug 25, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 13305

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

I think that I might finally be wrapping my head around the source of many of the ongoing debates about various issues on this forum, including 'best diversifiers', 'TSM vs. factors', etc. I believe that investors' underlying goal may explain a lot of this and be useful for understanding both our o...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 28789

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

I think it depends somewhat on your portfolio whether it makes sense to add some gold. A simple US 60/40, over the past 32 years, beats 60% S&P, 40% gold. However, if you measure peak to peak, or trough to trough, they do about equally as well. One could likely use gold, total bonds, or any combo as...
by Portfolio7
Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple-minded inspection of actual low-vol fund
Replies: 31
Views: 3677

Re: Simple-minded inspection of actual low-vol fund

Since the correlation of DEF and VTSMX is 0.80, which to me is not a "low" correlation at all but nevertheless is imperfect, I thought I ought to test one other possibility: the possibility that a combination of VTSMX and DEF might be better than either alone. The reasoning here is that it meets so...
by Portfolio7
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 148 Years Of Dividend Growth Investing
Replies: 5
Views: 959

Re: 148 Years Of Dividend Growth Investing

"So clearly, the expression about "time in" the market verses "timing the market" is flat out wrong. What matters is not how long you are in the market but how many dividends you reinvest." This is so dumb. Reinvesting dividends is how you calculate a total return. Dividends take money out of the m...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple vs Complex Index Portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 2783

Re: Simple vs Complex Index Portfolio

A blog post that is instructive in terms of the journey many of us go through. I read a lot of comments reflecting the journey back towards simplicity. I'm not advocating this guy's choice as to where he is heading, but the process is a familiar one. https://alphaarchitect.com/2019/08/08/there-and-b...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome
Replies: 120
Views: 24203

Re: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome

There is a reason why most choose intermediate term duration. . . . I suspect the reason that most people choose intermediate duration bonds is that they don't fully understand the relationship between stocks and bonds and, lacking the confidence that comes from that understanding, pick "Door B" be...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome
Replies: 120
Views: 24203

Re: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome

There is a reason why most choose intermediate term duration. . . . I suspect the reason that most people choose intermediate duration bonds is that they don't fully understand the relationship between stocks and bonds and, lacking the confidence that comes from that understanding, pick "Door B" be...
by Portfolio7
Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to take out the canes
Replies: 19
Views: 4234

Re: Time to take out the canes

Takes some nerve and discipline to plow money into the market on a day like today, but that's just what I did..... :shock: The percentage drop is one thing, but on a price level, the S&P 500 is where is was last seen 2 months ago. More like 3 months ago, I think? Anyways, it's down just 6% over the...
by Portfolio7
Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Complacency
Replies: 77
Views: 6497

Re: Boglehead Complacency

Hi All, Our cherished forum is one of the best sources of stock market sentiment. Right now I'd like to point out: >> lack of anxiety despite the ~80 handles drawdown we find ourselves in. >> many threads where people are looking to increase risk, rather than make preparations for the eventual drop...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"
Replies: 68
Views: 16774

Re: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"

I am not a classic market timer. Most of what I have done is mild tactical reallocation or overbalancing. Also have been doing classic rebalancing. Mostly what I do (or attempt to do) is sell expensive assets to buy cheap assets. For me, it has been more about controlling risk than boosting returns...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"
Replies: 68
Views: 16774

Re: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"

I am not a classic market timer. Most of what I have done is mild tactical reallocation or overbalancing. Also have been doing classic rebalancing. Mostly what I do (or attempt to do) is sell expensive assets to buy cheap assets. For me, it has been more about controlling risk than boosting returns...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Setting up a 401K...
Replies: 6
Views: 545

Re: Setting up a 401K...

I am not an expert by any means, but if it helps here is some background about when I was trying to help DW with her business. Take it with a few grains of salt, especially as I am not in this role professionally, and even if I were, I don't know much about your situation. I analyzed a variety of sa...