Search found 453 matches

by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan
Replies: 25
Views: 3319

Re: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan

All these pundits clucking about a recession in the next year or so are starting to make me suspect we're years away.
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 114
Views: 5097

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

Where did I say that I am expecting to receive a better risk-adjusted return? I said that I am expecting lower risk and lower return. I expect the ratio of risk to return to stay the same. The reason I don’t just increase my bond allocation is because I’m not a Bonds-are-for-safety bond investor (s...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What type of bond investor are you?
Replies: 31
Views: 2135

Re: What type of bond investor are you?

Well. I know that as long as my stable value fund yields more than Int treasuries, I'm in SV. I believe that will also be true as long as ST Treasury rates are lower than the SV yield, even if IT rates are higher. Once ST Treasuries pass the SV yield, if ever, then I have to think about shifting som...
by Portfolio7
Sun Dec 16, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was Eliminating Investor Class Shares a Mistake?
Replies: 16
Views: 2608

Re: Was Eliminating Investor Class Shares a Mistake?

One likely advantage of eliminating investor class shares is that they also eliminate some paperwork and cost. They only have to track some fraction of the data that they did before, or at least, run fewer analytics on the data they have, to come to those expense ratios.
by Portfolio7
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?
Replies: 39
Views: 2275

Re: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?

Imho, there is no relationship between the actual economic impact of 2008 and anything that may follow - and virtually none to the level of emotion with which people respond. As Twain reportedly (?) said, “History doesn't repeat itself (but it often rhymes”). The one "new" thing I believe will conti...
by Portfolio7
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 114
Views: 5097

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

The most interesting feature of these funds is their relationship with the market cap counter parts....Looking at the SP600, blend vs low vol ETF's (real trading). We get this: This is the normal cumulative returns http://i63.tinypic.com/2a519fr.png And this is the spread spread = data['IJR'].pct_c...
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession Coming
Replies: 56
Views: 7081

Re: Recession Coming

What is this dry powder you speak of? My money is in savings, or it's invested - it doesn't sit around waiting for events I can't time...
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 114
Views: 5097

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

I've held this fund for two years now, about 7% of my holdings. I am not ready to trust it as a core holding. I want to see how it performs during a big draw down. Thus far, the performance appears to be very good (and I'm thinking about standard deviation when I say that.) Returns have of course be...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 244
Views: 18654

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I've posted this before, but my perspective shifts, so... I'd been through the dot.com crash already. I wanted to hedge in late 1999, but wasn't sure what I was doing, hesitant to follow my instincts, so I rode it out. Once the crash started, I wasn't tempted to sell at all (I only had very low 6 fi...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2018)
Replies: 4
Views: 511

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2018)

Madsinger, thanks. It helps to see everyone else is going through the same tribulations, even if it is pretty modest.
by Portfolio7
Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2043
Views: 380512

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

70/30 and bouncing between (2%) and (3%) down for the year. Dom/Int is roughly 50/50.

I'm fine with our investments. It's everything else that's a goat rodeo, and that can pretty much be boiled down to business model issues. I don't think I'll mind turning the page on 2018 at all!
by Portfolio7
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?
Replies: 43
Views: 3001

Re: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?

IF you are planning for a 30 year retirement horizon, then what Nisiprius said. The percentage changes if your time horizon is greater or lesser than 30 years.
by Portfolio7
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 12051

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Social Security is not a pension plan, it is insurance. The full name is Old Age Survivor Disability Insurance -“OASDI”. It was designed to provide a minimum level of benefits to prevent abject poverty, but it is not or ever intended to replace a pension or a savings plan. It offers disability insu...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did the bond market lose money this year
Replies: 39
Views: 3552

Re: Why did the bond market lose money this year

The Fed wants to raise rates further, but only if it doesn't cut off economic growth. "Cut off economic growth" -> too broad and too imprecise. That maybe the case, but that is definitely outside of the Fed's mandate. The Fed's mandate seemed a bit extraneous to the thrust of OP's question... still...
by Portfolio7
Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did the bond market lose money this year
Replies: 39
Views: 3552

Re: Why did the bond market lose money this year

A year ago, the Fed had declared it's intent to raise overnight rates significantly. This got priced into the market. However, I would suggest not everyone believed the Fed, so some assumption was priced into bonds, perhaps at 75% of what ended up happening. As I conceive it, the priced in assumptio...
by Portfolio7
Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do bogleheads think of small cap value?
Replies: 37
Views: 3219

Re: What do bogleheads think of small cap value?

A small stock example from Michael Batnick. The bear market of 1969 absolutely wrecked small stocks. In just 17 months, they lost 56% of their value, leaving investors once bitten, twice shy. https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2018/11/26/the-nifty-fifty/ https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/wp-content/...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone invest in Vanguard's Health Care Fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 1766

Re: Anyone invest in Vanguard's Health Care Fund?

About 5% of my 16yo son's Roth IRA is currently in FHLC. I figured it makes sense for someone with a 40 or 50 year investment horizon to take a few reasonable risks in an industry that's bound to expand, regardless of the exact economics (future legislation.) I don't personally feel a desire to inve...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is today a bad time to rebalance?
Replies: 18
Views: 2252

Re: Is today a bad time to rebalance?

I've got 25 to 30 years left so I am going to believe time is on my side. For now 100% of future contributions will go 100% into bonds to get the allocation up a bit and I'll rebalance if/when things turn around a bit. I'm estimating from your other post that contributing 100% to bonds, or $18K per...
by Portfolio7
Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 412
Views: 47243

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Has anybody else noticed the pattern in the last month that on down days value out performs growth and on up days growth out performs value. Not looking to do anything with that just interesting. Yes. Growth funds have gone from more consistent outperformance vs value to the more recent mixed bag, ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 301
Views: 45928

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

I'd want another $1.5M.... but I'd probably jump at $1M, and work in a lower stress job for the next ten years. However, not sure I can just leave it at that and not factor in DW. We'd need another $800K for her, so that's perhaps $2M for both of us to walk. These numbers are high because we'd be re...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k down 8% this month
Replies: 58
Views: 6861

Re: 401k down 8% this month

Ok, I decided to look today just because. I have a natural avoidance tendency when I know things are down. Down 5% YTD. My primary feeling is Annoyance. Those darn tariffs spoiled my emerging markets party :annoyed . Is it weird that I only want to get more aggressive? Am 73/27 with an aggressive sk...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 99
Views: 8881

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

Another reader. I'd already read 'The intelligent asset allocator' by Bernstein; loved the content and discussion. I think that was in 2015, and was happy to find my portfolio structure was similar to one he proposed. Then I read Swenson right after, and I really liked the book, both for the advice ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"
Replies: 31
Views: 2011

Re: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"

The point regarding arbitrage seems central to me. It's comparison to the risk free rate of return that's key, and the one that most of us ignore. We've had cash flow issues for some time due to a few reasons, encompassing both business & educational opportunities and things like unexpected health c...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand dividends
Replies: 146
Views: 13305

Re: Help me understand dividends

I'm not used to thinking about this, but isn't the framework of this discussion inhibiting a resolution? Mathematically, dividends make no difference IN THEORY, before taxes. After taxes, yeah, some difference. Segue to Total Return discussion, as per many comments above. You should not care how muc...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"
Replies: 48
Views: 4884

Re: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"

My projections from the time I was in my late 20's suggested about age 50-55 w/o kids, age 55-60 with kids. We had kids. Pension slashed. Age 60. I have a simple algorithm that calculates roughly what we need to retire at a given age for 100% income replacement, and I charted that against our actual...
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing?
Replies: 103
Views: 9969

Re: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing

Regarding tutoring, after college but before my 'real job' started, I took a couple months off. In between river-rafting and frisbee golf with my friends, I was the resident drop-in tutor at the local jc, I'd see just about anyone. I tutored science, math, english lit, spanish, accounting - got sign...
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4506

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

Nisiprius post is very odd to me. He speaks of the dividend discount theory and rising rates. Yet rates did not rise suddenly overnight to justify the drop on Wednesday morning in US stock prices. The market doesn't have to look backwards or react to what happens. The market can look forward, i.e. ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it a sign that a bear market is coming, when most people are afraid that stocks will plummet?
Replies: 42
Views: 2890

Re: Is it a sign that a bear market is coming, when most people are afraid that stocks will plummet?

I think these types of articles (may) only tell you which way the market is biased (but I don't consider this alone to be a great source). I see it this way: the market will react to fundamentals over time (short term voting machine, long term weighing machine.) At any one point valuation will be th...
by Portfolio7
Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stress testing for those contemplating retirement in the next couple years
Replies: 28
Views: 2863

Re: Stress testing for those contemplating retirement in the next couple years

I like safety, but I don't see hitting those rarified numbers. I'm hoping to hit 15x Income, about 20X expenses when you revise for not needing to contribute to retirement accounts and reduced taxes and certain debts rolling off the ledger. There are other expenses that will likely go away, and some...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security and Asset Allocation
Replies: 50
Views: 5054

Re: Social Security and Asset Allocation

Actually it's not a "private universe" at all. It's based on game theory, on poker, on tennis, on blackjack, on the strike zone within baseball, and on Munger's circle of competence. More importantly, it's based on the professional's game versus the amateur's. Professionals and amateurs play two en...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6182

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

Honestly, not so much, but I don't believe I'm laboring under that particular misunderstanding. I have read that there was significant instability, that this instability coincided with significant federal intrusions in the banking space pre-1914 (from the US Bank to all sorts of restrictions regard...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2043
Views: 380512

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

About 2.4% in my basic portfolio. My TAA version is about 3.2% In both cases, I have a high % of EM/Int'l. 70/30
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6182

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

The short answer is because politicians, the Fed, and many economists believe that they can successfully reguate the economy through such measures and eliminate (or "smooth out") booms and busts. It just doesn't work well in practice. JT Others have different opinions and conclusions. Of course the...
by Portfolio7
Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6182

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

The short answer is because politicians, the Fed, and many economists believe that they can successfully reguate the economy through such measures and eliminate (or "smooth out") booms and busts. It just doesn't work well in practice. JT Others have different opinions and conclusions. Of course the...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Other Portfolios that aren't 3 fund
Replies: 31
Views: 3501

Re: Other Portfolios that aren't 3 fund

I have equal parts Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap, Int'l Small Cap, Emerging Markets, REITs. I dip a toe into the value/growth wars, but not worth breaking down. The rest is fixed income, a stable value fund with yields good enough to keep me out of Int Trsy & Tips, at least for now. It's a great por...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DIYers Taking a Toll
Replies: 50
Views: 6595

Re: DIYers Taking a Toll

michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:34 pm
It seems like every time I see a "professional" on the business channels they say it is a stock pickers market.
I've heard that a lot too. Hedge fund returns since 2009 suggest otherwise. Performance relative to the S&P500 dropped off a cliff in comparison to the prior ten years or so.
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liquid Alternatives relative lack of performance
Replies: 0
Views: 238

Liquid Alternatives relative lack of performance

For anyone interested, an analysis of Liquid Alternatives (as a replacement to bonds) finds that a simple equity/bond approach worked best, within the bounds of their data (16 years). The analysis was based on Equities plus a single diversifier, there weren't any multi-alternative comparisons examin...
by Portfolio7
Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Other investment opportunities besides the stock market
Replies: 25
Views: 2018

Re: Other investment opportunities besides the stock market

A different but related situation: DW is a partner in her small firm, 2 principals. She works there and owns just under half the business also. The cost to buy in was substantial, but she now works in and helps run the business, and she discusses key decisions with me. At the time the business was g...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Four Ways to Boost Investment Returns Without Additional Risk"
Replies: 2
Views: 1458

Re: "Four Ways to Boost Investment Returns Without Additional Risk"

Do funds with low ERs necessarily have lower churn than funds with higher ERs? I don't think that's true. The lowest cost funds out there are indexed and usually have little turnover, but I don't know that we can say that fund A having a lower ER than fund B means that A automatically has lower chu...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Parallels between investing and fantasy football?
Replies: 14
Views: 864

Re: Parallels between investing and fantasy football?

I used to play fantasy baseball... and there are a lot of parallels. If you think of your team as a portfolio of funds, and your star clean-up batter like the S&P500, with a long history of strong performance... he might start the season so slow, you wonder what the problem is. You consider subbing ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mother, can I trust the stock market?
Replies: 19
Views: 2379

Re: Mother, can I trust the stock market?

Read this and try not to freak out https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-02-17/dole-food-had-too-many-shares Essentially the way everyone owns stock is: Cede & Co., a nominee of the Depository Trust Co., owns all the stock in all the companies. DTC keeps a list of its "participants" -- banks...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value of Vanguard's Allocation Chart? Putting the present in a larger context? Or ???
Replies: 12
Views: 1418

Re: How close are your 12 month earnings compared to Vanguard's Allocation Chart?

Given the scale of returns you posted and translating against the tracking I did, I roughly match a 90/10 portfolio over the entire time I've invested, about 23 years. It's pretty much an apples to oranges compare no matter how you do it, so I'm not sure of the point? I mean, if I'd been 100% US ins...
by Portfolio7
Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lessons from the financial crisis (Pisani, CNBC)
Replies: 52
Views: 5152

Re: Lessons from the financial crisis (Pisani, CNBC)

In 2008 I was working on Wall Street at one of the largest hedge funds in the world. Minimum investment requirements were in the double digit millions, and so the LP investor base was mostly pension funds, endowments, insurance companies and a handful of very high net worth individuals. Between 200...
by Portfolio7
Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lessons from the financial crisis (Pisani, CNBC)
Replies: 52
Views: 5152

Re: Lessons from the financial crisis (Pisani, CNBC)

I don't understand this from the bullet points at the top of the article: "The financial crisis started as what seemed like a minor issue — the failure of the subprime mortgage industry." How is that "a minor issue"? This is how I understand it, but appreciate any pertinant clarifications or correc...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pensions and retirement savings rate
Replies: 30
Views: 2639

Re: Pensions and retirement savings rate

I would not count on the pension at all. Granted it is a gov't pension, but obligations can be reduced in bankruptcy proceedings. My pension is about 10% of what it would have been under the existing terms when I was hired. Try to save enough without it, and let it be the gravy (or the benefit that ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX & low volatility performance
Replies: 12
Views: 1490

VMVFX & low volatility performance

VMVFX is Vanguard's Global Minimum Volatility Fund, and intrigues me. I don't have time for a full workup and compare, but have pulled this together: VMVFX is about 60% US 40% Foreign per the Vanguard composition detail. It's a World small-midcap fund, per the morningstar category, but the style box...
by Portfolio7
Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with 401K Funds - Employee Fiduciary
Replies: 6
Views: 648

Re: Help with 401K Funds - Employee Fiduciary

My understanding is that EF doesn't allow Vanguard Admiral shares to be used, only investor. If the company hasn't already done the paperwork, they might also want to look at Guideline, which beats EF on employer costs if there are 15 or fewer participants, doesn't charge an AUM fee, and does offer...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with 401K Funds - Employee Fiduciary
Replies: 6
Views: 648

Re: Help with 401K Funds - Employee Fiduciary

1. The thought process behind these funds... did I miss anything important, either at a fund level, or portfolio construction level? (I waffled on SCV for a number of reasons, may include it in the end.) Couple of thoughts, but if this were a real 401k plan set of choices, it would be better than a...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Determining ESG’s Nature
Replies: 10
Views: 703

Re: Larry Swedroe: Determining ESG’s Nature

ESG makes some people feel like they are doing the right thing. Per a list from Schwab, several standard Vanguard funds fare pretty well in overall ESG measures, despite not being designed around it. Imho there's a fair helping of marketing involved in the ESG designation, but there is legitimacy to...
by Portfolio7
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with 401K Funds - Employee Fiduciary
Replies: 6
Views: 648

Re: Help with 401K Funds - Employee Fiduciary

Thanks. I know, the first 20 or so funds are the important ones. The ones after that are not really needed, but I know one of the partners really wants some of those options... so I tried to keep them on a good track.