Search found 402 matches

by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 523
Views: 29665

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Help me understand something, The purpose of holding international (and bonds) in a 3-fund portfolio is not entirely about maximizing returns, but rather places a premium on stability and insurance against complete collapse. Right? My understanding: Bonds, yes - but I wouldn't describe the internat...
by Portfolio7
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4281

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

OP, your example seems to be about someone having all the money they will ever have to invest at one time and deciding when to invest it all. Does that seem realistic to you? Most folks invest over many, many years. How does your scenario work out if someone invests throughout the time period you'r...
by Portfolio7
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"
Replies: 239
Views: 19755

Re: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"

+1

I don't get the hoopla over the Fidelity announcement.
by Portfolio7
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bankruptcy rising for older Americans
Replies: 4
Views: 889

Re: Bankruptcy rising for older Americans

AlohaJoe, thanks for the link. I feel a little foolish now for not being a bit more skeptical of the conclusions drawn. :oops:
by Portfolio7
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bankruptcy rising for older Americans
Replies: 4
Views: 889

Bankruptcy rising for older Americans

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/05/business/bankruptcy-older-americans.html Bankruptcy rates up 66% for pre-retirees (age 55 to 64). Up 204% for age 65 and over. Usual suspects: Health care, debt, unexpected family burdens, but also student loans for their kids is in the mix. The net is that these f...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 03, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Touring Singapore in October
Replies: 9
Views: 615

Re: Touring Singapore in October

I have only been there on business, but I really liked visiting Arab Street. Very atmospheric. If the 6 yo is an adventurous eaters, there are a few restaurants... and a McDonalds knock-off about a block away, as I remember! I had Schawarma there, it was great. There is a 'China' area and an 'India'...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 03, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: How did you become a Boglehead?
Replies: 53
Views: 3430

Re: How did you become a Boglehead?

I guess I've always been a Boglehead at heart - or maybe 90% of one - all the reading I did led me to the 10 principles independently. I was determined to start saving asap, then investing with low cost index funds. My one experience with a financial analyst only hurried me along the road. When I st...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 03, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HELOC
Replies: 20
Views: 1343

Re: HELOC

If it's a no fee and draw HELOC, why not? If bank close it, so let it. The problem comes if they close it AFTER you have used the contents to buy an asset. As long as the asset is liquid, you're fine, but you can't treat it like cash. Then there are behavioral issues that tend to result from having...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Levels of Wealth
Replies: 125
Views: 11433

Re: 3 Levels of Wealth

Great thread. People can also be up or down the 10 point scale. We're 5 or 6 if you look at our assets, but they're all illiquid for one reason or another, including the 401K (at least, I treat it that way.) So we are really at 2 and it will be some time before we have a large pile of cash. What I r...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 112
Views: 11363

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

As a rule, the duration of your bonds should match your investment horizon. If you are more 10 years from retirement, the bulk of your bonds should be intermediate or long-term bonds, not a cash-like pseudo-insurance product like a GIC. I thought that guidance was meant primarily to prevent investm...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 112
Views: 11363

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

As a rule, the duration of your bonds should match your investment horizon. If you are more 10 years from retirement, the bulk of your bonds should be intermediate or long-term bonds, not a cash-like pseudo-insurance product like a GIC. I thought that guidance was meant primarily to prevent investm...
by Portfolio7
Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 112
Views: 11363

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

As a rule, the duration of your bonds should match your investment horizon. If you are more 10 years from retirement, the bulk of your bonds should be intermediate or long-term bonds, not a cash-like pseudo-insurance product like a GIC. I thought that guidance was meant primarily to prevent investm...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jul 31, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are millennials botching their asset allocations?
Replies: 41
Views: 3623

Re: Are millennial botching their asset allocations?

For the most part I stopped subscribing to the belief that there are distinct generational differences between demographic cohorts. In my experience the ratio of aggressive risk-taking investors, risk-averse investors, and people who don't save or invest at all, are roughly the same across all gene...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jul 30, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Developed World Small Cap for more diversification?
Replies: 5
Views: 597

Re: Developed World Small Cap for more diversification?

Yes, but... everything in investing seems to require three hands (on the one hand, OTOH, and there is usually at least a third consideration!) I am a tweaker too. One of the things I'm slowly learning in a visceral manner is that entire markets (& economic conditions) change over time, and the time ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best source for simple market news?
Replies: 26
Views: 2133

Re: Best source for simple market news?

Bloomberg.com offers pretty even-handed summaries like that but the new paywall is pretty expensive, and I'm not likely to take the plunge to pay for it, but that's the one column I almost never read. However.... The real question is why do you want it? This type of info, even in the most pristine f...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jul 23, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are socially responsible funds just another marketing ploy?
Replies: 25
Views: 2152

Re: Are socially responsible funds just another marketing ploy?

Of course, but doesn't mean it doesn't work. My wife wouldn't invest otherwise, so all her (minor investments) are in ESG funds. I carefully omit mentioning how minor their social commitment actually is, so she can feel good imagining her money is hard at work educating orphans, saving whales, and ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The joys of investing
Replies: 23
Views: 2885

Re: The joys of investing

Investing fascinates me. It's like fantasy baseball, but better, you don't have to come in first to win... in fact, doing average is great! But really, every asset class is so much like a baseball player, with different abilities (this one does well during deflation, this other one when interest rat...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest
Replies: 75
Views: 10995

Re: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest

I automate contributions, but also track balances and project them. This helps me see the value in the $1500 deposit. In 30 years that's $15K or more. Also, I have savings goals (% of $ earned, $ of income, multiple of expense) that I track in my spreadsheet. Seeing those tick closer to my targets m...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help - Custodian for Employee Fiduciary Transition
Replies: 0
Views: 117

Help - Custodian for Employee Fiduciary Transition

I'm not sure if this is the best place to post my question, so mods, please move as appropriate. My wife's very small firm (she is a partner) is moving to Employee Fiduciary to administer their 401K program (they are fairly generous with their employees for such a small firm.) This is all new to her...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 346
Views: 22518

Re: Invest in Tesla?

I love the idea of Tesla, and am kind of a fan, but no way would I own the stock. My sense is that the price implies a decade of success and significant margin growth, beyond a standard car company (and I'm borrowing from some folks I've read here, not doing the math myself.) In any case, it sounds ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 112
Views: 13824

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

Just Ignore it. Most people are laid off before 50 if not earlier and never get back to good jobs. Plan accordingly. Sorry you feel that way David. While he may have an overly pessimistic view. His larger point is valid. Especially in some fields, if you are planing to retire 60+, it would be wise ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11650

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

Ok, so I often hear that delaying social security until 70 vs. taking it early at 62 is often the beneficial thing to do because of the pseudo ~ 8% return that you get on delayed Social Security. In my case, for me to do that, I would have to spend down my portfolio to "buy" the "age 70 SS annuity"...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11650

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

Ok, so I often hear that delaying social security until 70 vs. taking it early at 62 is often the beneficial thing to do because of the pseudo ~ 8% return that you get on delayed Social Security. In my case, for me to do that, I would have to spend down my portfolio to "buy" the "age 70 SS annuity"...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your one favorite Fidelity Fund??
Replies: 58
Views: 4837

Re: What is your one favorite Fidelity Fund??

I carry fewer and fewer Fidelity funds over time, and I wouldn't recommend the one I do carry, but it works for me. FOCKX slots into my portfolio at 7% of total allocation, and returns have been stellar over the couple years I've owned it. The fees are very high at 70 basis points and I suspect I'm...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jul 01, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your one favorite Fidelity Fund??
Replies: 58
Views: 4837

Re: What is your one favorite Fidelity Fund??

I carry fewer and fewer Fidelity funds over time, and I wouldn't recommend the one I do carry, but it works for me. FOCKX slots into my portfolio at 7% of total allocation, and returns have been stellar over the couple years I've owned it. The fees are very high at 70 basis points and I suspect I'm ...
by Portfolio7
Sat Jun 30, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1937
Views: 353223

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

0.58% YTD as of the end of June. 70/30. This is a great thread. The longer it goes, the more I feel the pointlessness of it, and the less desire I have to compare to any other returns. Anyways, like Greg Maddux once said to George Will, the past is history (the future is perfect :wink: .)
by Portfolio7
Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a way to avoid bad companies in S&P 500?
Replies: 92
Views: 4686

Re: Why would creating an intelligent S&P 475 be so difficult to do?

Not sure if I get the distinction between an intelligent fund and an active fund… ultimately what is the difference between a fund that picks winners and a fund that identifies and omits losers? Both of those are active funds. I don't know what an intelligent fund is, that sounds like marketing.
by Portfolio7
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility
Replies: 25
Views: 2466

Re: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility

Volatility risk almost always starts and ends with bonds, though some alternatives will perform as well or better for short times, maybe even longer times (but I have no such faith.). I tend to think of volatility risk as a strategic question that is lifecycle dependent, and appreciate any thoughts ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 57
Views: 3394

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

I don't see how the answer can be anything but a resounding yes. All the fiber-optic cable laid down in the late 1990's that enabled the worldwide scope of the internet also allowed a lot of work to move overseas, with instantaneous communication. Technology also means that companies now require far...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 7114

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

This is my point. People need to understand that fundamental difference between what we are doing and what Buffett does. I think this is a good point. It was never my intent when originally posting to suggest that we all should be following Buffett's investment advice. I was trying to understand so...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we need 529?
Replies: 42
Views: 4282

Re: Why do we need 529?

Another reason to go Roth IRA is potentially better control over your investments. In any case, the hard part for us was funding it. Our money went to retirement savings, and monetary gifts to the boys went to the 529. The latter ended up woefully insufficient; in retrospect we would have been wiser...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 7114

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

"Never Lose Money" Actionable? Tangible? j A large number of posts suggest this comment is largely about managing risk in several forms. A Boglehead perspective would recognize several tools we use to do so: - Using Index Funds where possible - Rebalancing periodically - Avoiding the purchase of in...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 7114

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

nisiprius wrote:
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:26 pm
Rule #1: Nobody actually knows what Buffett means by many of the things he says.
Rule #2: never forget rule #1.
;-) Now that there was funny, I don't care who ya are! Thanks for the laugh!
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 7114

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

I'm not so willing to entirely discount anything WB attaches importance to, and he repeats this 'rule' with gusto in the recent biographic documentary. In simpler terms, I think he meant to be "risk averse", (rather than "loss averse"). The latter term is the more common understanding of the words ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 7114

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

I'm not so willing to entirely discount anything WB attaches importance to, and he repeats this 'rule' with gusto in the recent biographic documentary. In simpler terms, I think he meant to be "risk averse", (rather than "loss averse"). The latter term is the more common understanding of the words h...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 7114

What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

I recently ran across a screed from Charlie Bilello (post: https://pensionpartners.com/the-1-rule-in-investing/) attacking Warren Buffett's well known credo "Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1." I realized I think of this differently than I used to. I once thought more...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 112
Views: 12383

Re: Very confused with the current market

- It has been history higher and higher. - the fundamental law says it will recycle every 10 years - I had been on cash for 10 months Please don't tell me I should not time the market. What's going wrong? For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. (Mencken) There...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with
Replies: 152
Views: 12193

Re: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with

1 Develop a workable plan: 75%? Our current plan is maybe 'good enough', but the big unknowns leave me grasping. 2 Invest early and often: 75% Starting at 27 was good enough, but we could have started earlier. 3 Never bear too much or too little risk: 75%. We consider risk first in AA construction, ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 Year Rule - Not allowed to execute new investment strategy until 1 year has passed
Replies: 27
Views: 2603

Re: 1 Year Rule - Not allowed to execute new investment strategy until 1 year has passed

I think something like this is a good idea. I've done something similar, although not as complicated and not as strict, myself. In my case, it took two forms. First, I try to wait a month (just a month!) between deciding to do something and actually doing it. And, second: I have a rule that I make ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity retirement planner accurate ?
Replies: 12
Views: 1878

Re: Fidelity retirement planner accurate ?

I like this planner. One shouldn't trust any planner to be "right", but this one seems pretty in line with my own calculations, as well as those of our fee-only planner. I like the options to analyze for historical market returns, below historical, and well below historical.
by Portfolio7
Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and your portfolio?
Replies: 23
Views: 2432

Re: FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and your portfolio?

I definitely act out of FOMO. I am a tinkerer; I have a real difficulty with 'good enough'. As a result I have rules I follow strictly in order to prevent me from doing stupid things. I think it's never a good idea to act without a considered plan. So, my 2 cents, fwiw. In early 2009 I had no equiti...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time between Peaks
Replies: 6
Views: 611

Re: Time between Peaks

Most people on this forum appear to believe in reducing risk as your savings increase or when within 5 or 10 years of retirement. There is also widespread agreement that you should be trying to save based on your estimated future expenses... so that if you want to spend $100K per year in retirement ...
by Portfolio7
Mon May 28, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Post Your Morningstar Box Style
Replies: 111
Views: 9712

Re: Post Your Morningstar Box Style

Below is our standard equity mix. I have to calculate with a wtd avg because of proprietary funds in my 401K, multiple accounts. 13 13 14 14 16 11 09 07 04 Right now our portfolio has a bit more growth vs the grid above, particularly in small cap - though the size weightings would be very close. Fix...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 25, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 84
Views: 6861

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

I will maintain a small tilt to of about 5-8% of my portfolio to small and small value just in case I'm wrong but other than two distinct periods I don't see any difference. HOWEVER, they do seem to run at different times, so as part of an overall equity allocation I believe there can be a re-balan...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 25, 2018 2:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renting vs Owning Your Home
Replies: 166
Views: 13915

Re: Renting vs Owning Your Home

Circumstances matter. We've experienced every kind of financial result, but I'm not sure we'd change anything. Our first home was purchased as the early 90's housing recession in our area was turning around. In 9 years it tripled in value. Near as I could estimate, we earned about 21% annually on th...
by Portfolio7
Thu May 24, 2018 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 106
Views: 11065

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

The advice you are given here is conservative precisely because risky investor behavior tends to result in bad outcomes eventually. The philosophies advocated here are not about reaping the greatest reward. They are about maximizing your chances of success, thereby minimizing your chances of losing...
by Portfolio7
Tue May 22, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 109
Views: 13708

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Well, odds don't seem to support the SPY Index doubling, that would require a nominal return that's higher than the historical average I believe - but under 'normal' conditions you might expect the "dividend-adjusted" index to roughly double. I think the possibility of the latter is still fairly rob...
by Portfolio7
Mon May 21, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 264
Views: 51245

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

We are aiming for retirement assets to be about 70% of our NW at retirement. We won't get to 25x expenses in savings, but with SS, a small pension, and some other resources, we should be close in total. What does this mean? What it should mean is that net income needed after SS, pension, and other ...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 18, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 401k limit is $55K - do you max it out? Why/why not?
Replies: 110
Views: 11086

Re: 2018 401k limit is $55K - do you max it out? Why/why not?

I maxed out last year. I end loosing company match for a whole month. the 2017 max is 53000, that's total sum of pre aft and comapany match. I will never repeat my mistake again. I lost couple of thousand company match. I would rather contribute less than max then loosing company match. I used to h...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 18, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 264
Views: 51245

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

It has to be defined in terms of target spending - the 'average' number would be meaningless to everyone except that mythical average person. Agreed. Income vs. expenses is what counts in the long run. I would say 25-30 times expenses is a safe target. It is reasonable to use a ballpark figure like...