Search found 819 matches

by Portfolio7
Fri May 22, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable Account - a Swiss Army Knife for Savers
Replies: 30
Views: 3778

Re: Taxable Account - a Swiss Army Knife for Savers

This is good advice. It's possible to ride the ragged edge on liquidity (I should know, I've been doing it for near on 15 years), but I woudn't advise it. We had a $70K living/emergency/whatever fund in our early 30's, whose purpose was to get us through the first 5 years or so of our kid's lives, u...
by Portfolio7
Tue May 12, 2020 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should you include home equity in Net Worth?
Replies: 160
Views: 7588

Re: Should you include home equity in Net Worth?

Of course it's part of Net Worth, but that's not really the point. You should be asking why do you care about your Net Worth? There is more than 1 valid answer, but as you think about your answer, you'll also be generating a framework to address your original question. I include our home in our NW c...
by Portfolio7
Tue May 12, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what moment does retirement begin?
Replies: 50
Views: 3518

Re: At what moment does retirement begin?

I am enjoying this thread. I am still a wage slave, so I can't talk about retirement... But, I can say that I have not quite 2 years (633 Days, 10 hours and some odd minutes and seconds per my little retirement clock) until I am eligible for retirement from Megacorp... which is no great shakes, but ...
by Portfolio7
Mon May 11, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526440

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

How are you guys doing so much better than market averages? Is it individual stocks (idiosyncratic risk) or did you guys time your new money contributions perfectly in late March? I am down somewhere between 10% and 13%. Not looking closely. Vanguard Total stock market is down 13.32% YTD which is m...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 08, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478099

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

That must feel pretty good, congratulations! I'm right about where the S&P500 is, down 10% after today, assuming current prices hold. I've learned that a portfolio full of relatively high return/high volatility slices of the market can go really bad all at once! I mean, we all know risk assets go so...
by Portfolio7
Tue May 05, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11141

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

Below are my results vs the S&P 500 for 26 years, using Index funds, but still a useful comparison. It is a bit streaky. Notice 5 years of beating the S&P 500 right in the middle of it, ending with a flourish at 24.3% better, which was in 2008 (sorry for lack of labels). (Also, that same year repres...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 01, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526440

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Down about 11% YTD as of last night. AA is currently about 77/23. Equity about 55% US, 45% Int'l. FI is all stable value.

I need EM and SC/MC to bounce back in order to keep up with the S&P500, and I'm running just a bit short. Interesting stuff, this investing.
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?
Replies: 110
Views: 9262

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Not really. The net difference to my eventual wealth isn't all that great. I rebalanced a little over a month ago (A rebalance back to my AA would have required selling about 8% of my portfolio, within the bond portion, and buy equities. I sold about 4% of my portfolio.) I was going to move the othe...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Upcoming Time to Lump Sum Into Market
Replies: 17
Views: 1451

Re: Best Upcoming Time to Lump Sum Into Market

I guess this is sort of market timing and the typical BH answer will be "right now", but what I am asking is if there is any potential news I should be aware of over the next few weeks that would make it worth waiting for (or not waiting for)....e.g. any upcoming earnings reports, economic data rep...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did any Bogleheads blink?
Replies: 42
Views: 3951

Re: Did any Bogleheads blink?

I procrastinated and waited way too long to rebalance. By some miracle the day I finally remembered to do it ended up being the lowest day (so far). But now that we swung way back up I'm supposed to rebalance again... urgh. I had made an adjustment in mid Feb, so my rules say I have to wait 4 weeks...
by Portfolio7
Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478099

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

* A good time to remember the Warren Buffett exhortation: “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.” That one has always worked for me. Cheers. :beer I'm usually fine with this, but right now, I can't tell whether others are greedy or fearful. I am starting to suspect t...
by Portfolio7
Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did any Bogleheads blink?
Replies: 42
Views: 3951

Re: Did any Bogleheads blink?

I procrastinated and waited way too long to rebalance. By some miracle the day I finally remembered to do it ended up being the lowest day (so far). But now that we swung way back up I'm supposed to rebalance again... urgh. I had made an adjustment in mid Feb, so my rules say I have to wait 4 weeks...
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Your Asset Allocation Strategy Changed?
Replies: 73
Views: 3700

Re: Has Your Asset Allocation Strategy Changed?

Not for 99% of my portfolio.

I have some small IRA accounts that are mostly in emerging markets. I may end up selling the EM once volatility drops a bit and I decide on a reasonable plan for a more diversified approach.
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn about investing or building wealth that would have helped you, if you knew about it earlier in life?
Replies: 45
Views: 3155

Re: What did you learn about investing or building wealth that would have helped you, if you knew about it earlier in li

Your band isn't going to make it big. Ha! I had a teacher who told us he had a chance to invest in Chicago before they made it big. He was still teaching us, so obviously he decided against it. I had a friend (whom I met years later) whose band was up for a potential contract, it was down to two ba...
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn about investing or building wealth that would have helped you, if you knew about it earlier in life?
Replies: 45
Views: 3155

Re: What did you learn about investing or building wealth that would have helped you, if you knew about it earlier in li

Your band isn't going to make it big. Ha! I had a teacher who told us he had a chance to invest in Chicago before they made it big. He was still teaching us, so obviously he decided against it. I had a friend (whom I met years later) whose band was up for a potential contract, it was down to two ba...
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526440

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Down about 15%. Around 75/25 AA at present.
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?
Replies: 268
Views: 16326

Re: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?

5% currently. We are nowhere near some of these very large percentages being posted, but not as bad as 6% might imply: We started at 10% and grew to 15% over about 12 years, then dropped it to 5-6% for the past 12 years as we've been stretched on cash flow. - In the past 15 years we purchased a seco...
by Portfolio7
Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626178

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

If it hits 2200 Monday, I'm going all in. Why not simply wait for 1800? It is unlikely to occur. 2200 has a fairly good probability of occurring and punching the rebalance ticket at that time is as good as any. Also, Monday is my buy day so... it's not like I'm sitting on a pile of cash waiting for...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526440

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Down roughly 18% for 1Q. 77/23, equities close to global market weight.
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your age/AA during this crisis?
Replies: 138
Views: 6316

Re: What is your age/AA during this crisis?

I vary my age slightly when I post just for added security, but it's in the ballpark. As to risk... it's such a personal thing, dependent so much on your circumstances. Our AA is aggressive, I definitely am a risk taker. We have a mix of assets and liabilities that I'll admit makes us more vulnerabl...
by Portfolio7
Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility
Replies: 24
Views: 1289

Re: Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility

The problem is what is "global", but fair enough the FTSE all cap global is likely a better fit. I maintain that the stated purpose of the fund has not been realized when it was put to the true test. Caveat emptor and all that. I freely admit to believing at one point that VMNVX might allow a reduc...
by Portfolio7
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't investors like "boring"?
Replies: 29
Views: 1807

Re: Why don't investors like "boring"?

I would take a completely boring investment that had a guaranteed, inflation-adjusted annual return of 5% in perpetuity any day of the week. :D This. Once you get past the urge to gamble, or make up lost ground, or avoid falling behind.... you are left with volatility and the lack of a guaranteed o...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626178

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I am not a market timer so I don't claim to know anything, but I would have thought stocks would drop more. On the other hand, the sheer number of "bogleheads" who bailed on the market and are now saying that we cannot have hit the bottom yet makes me think that we have, in fact, hit the bottom. :m...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I have seen this coming?
Replies: 107
Views: 7384

Re: Should I have seen this coming?

But it's not accurate that the risk was low. We now know that the risk was high much earlier than markets reflected, based on indicators we either weren't paying attention to or didn't know how to interpret at the time. I'm doubt it's reasonable for almost any investor to have any of that risk refl...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I have seen this coming?
Replies: 107
Views: 7384

Re: Should I have seen this coming?

In all seriousness, I mean, we all saw this coming. It was in the news, we assessed the risk, most of us accurately decided that risk was low I think you mean inaccurately No, he means that taken in isolation, the fact that a new disease has broken out is unlikely to have much impact on the economy...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I have seen this coming?
Replies: 107
Views: 7384

Re: Should I have seen this coming?

In all seriousness, I mean, we all saw this coming. It was in the news, we assessed the risk, most of us accurately decided that risk was low (and when I say that, I mean that every prior potential pandemic had resulted in virtually no market disruption, so, risk was low.) This time, despite being r...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I have seen this coming?
Replies: 107
Views: 7384

Re: Should I have seen this coming?

For the market timers or those tempted to market time... Did you get back in for this? "The Dow soared 2,112 points to close 11.3% higher, notching its biggest one-day percentage gain since 1933" https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/dow-soars-11percent-in-best-day-since-1933-as-stimulus-deal-nea...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63015

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

No, I wouldn't call it probable. In fact I'd be surprised if we have hit bottom. I think there is still a lot of bad news to process, and a couple negative surprises will send us to lower prices yet. Otoh, if the surprises are mostly positive moving forward then yes, that may have been the bottom. T...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478099

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Get ready to make some moolah tomorrow morning everyone! Futures are up 2% for the DOW, 1% for the S&P. I really don't get the rally this past couple of days, but I'm happy to have partially rebalanced on Monday. With the market up 10% since then it's tempting to undo that rebalance now and just ta...
by Portfolio7
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478099

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I don't see how this is good news. This rally/reaction is way too optimistic. We will get back to the business of rebuilding the economy in good time, but you can't short-circuit the process. You especially can't decide to throw all our seniors overboard in favor of economic recovery, which thought ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 295
Views: 25669

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

I too hit my rebalancing band sometime last week (I don’t “peak” every day ...) - sold government bond and bought global stock today. About $30k. It’s the first rebalance from bond to stock I’ve done and I felt strangely detached. No second thoughts at all about buying equities when others are sell...
by Portfolio7
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626178

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I put in my rebalance order for today, close of market. I will sell about 4% of my portfolio, Fixed Income, and buy equities. That's about half of my eventual rebalance. The other half won't happen for at least a month. I passed my rebalance and my 30 day purchase limit... but when I ask my magic 8-...
by Portfolio7
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often do you re-balance during these times?
Replies: 42
Views: 3479

Re: How often do you re-balance during these times?

If more anecdotal data is useful... this may sound a little complicated, but it's really pretty straightforward. I have two processes which can change my AA. Depending on risk factors, I may skew a fund up or down a couple percent. This is a form of overweighting, and it leads to small changes in my...
by Portfolio7
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone else increasing their equity allocation?
Replies: 28
Views: 2951

Re: Anyone else increasing their equity allocation?

I'm in my early 50's and was 77% / 23% (21% Stable Value and 2% ST TIPS) with my invested assets, heading into this mess. ( I also have a pension that, when considered as part of the mix, put me at 70/30). I just ran my numbers, and I'm allowed to sell $90K of FI and use it to buy equity funds. You ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation really hiding?
Replies: 5
Views: 470

Re: Is inflation really hiding?

I wouldn't give Ed Yardeni too much credit (I'm guessing he's one of the pundits you're reading). He's a smart guy, and I'd love for him to be right, but he's talking perceived odds regarding something that none of the pandemic experts can predict with certainty right now. If you're worried about in...
by Portfolio7
Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?
Replies: 170
Views: 9261

Re: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?

Age 53. AA was 78/22. Now I suppose it's more like 74/26. I've almost always been an aggressive investor, and maintain a modestly variable AA. I have rules about getting more and less aggressive, and limits on how often that changes. I was near maximum aggressiveness when the Corvid-19 crisis hit. F...
by Portfolio7
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks on sale?
Replies: 88
Views: 4474

Re: Are stocks on sale?

a lot of people are saying market is stil overvalued based on P/E Imho, a lot of people are anchoring on outmoded data. Which doesn't mean the market won't continue to decline, but I do think the metrics are easy to calculate and difficult to interpret appropriately (which is not to say I've necess...
by Portfolio7
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626178

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I guess the real question is whether the ups and downs will trigger an investment action. For me, I will do my monthly account review 1 week from now, and I will likely rebalance. Even if I don't rebalance, I do have a simple secondary analysis that may indicate selling a few percent in bonds and bu...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Before/today and next plan with what you have
Replies: 6
Views: 509

Re: What U had/What u have/ What U r doing now

May be a bit too personal for a public forum but as I scan this board it is hard to decipher what people are doing with their investments without knowing their spend goals as well as what they have now and allocation. I may be looking for validation, maybe consolation, maybe encouragement. Im reall...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it Possible the Market Closes Permanently
Replies: 43
Views: 4297

Re: Is it Possible the Market Closes Permanently

It could close permanently (nuclear war? invasion?), but it won't for Covid-19 (I abbreviate ncv for novel corona virus). Maybe for a short period of time. I suspect there will be no market closure, but it could get be a close decision if health facilities get overwhelmed. Much of the immediate dang...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 295
Views: 25669

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

This is my attempt to rebalance my portfolio in a rational way during market turmoil, without veering too far into market timing. I'll let you know later how it performs. ^^^^^^^ This seems like a well-developed plan! I'm buying on Monday/Tuesday when a significant percentage of my annual 401k cont...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any 50+ year olds buying?
Replies: 53
Views: 3863

Re: Any 50+ year olds buying?

No, not yet. I am in my early 50's. I think/hope I've got 5 years until retirement, but it could be 7 or 8. My IPS specifies a process and time frame for this kind of change when markets decline substantially. In a little over a week I will consider whether to sell some bonds and buy some equities, ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who is increasing their stock allocation?
Replies: 5
Views: 703

Re: Who is increasing their stock allocation?

It is hard because of low interest rates. Both Buffett and Munger have indicated that they believe that current valuations are fair only if interest rates remain low for the forseeable future, which is their way of saying that markets are fairly expensive if we return to anything resembling a norma...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey Reacts to Stock Market Crash
Replies: 93
Views: 15087

Re: Dave Ramsey Reacts to Stock Market Crash

The S & P 500 isn't down 30%. The 52 week low is about 19.5% down from the 52 week high. I'm curious why the 30% number is being thrown around. Let me clarify as I see why you and others may not grasp the point. As I mentioned above, two weeks ago certain individual companies and sectors were selli...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey Reacts to Stock Market Crash
Replies: 93
Views: 15087

Re: Dave Ramsey Reacts to Stock Market Crash

Best buying opportunity in 10 or 15 years. More like 15 months, unless he thinks S&P 500 at 2750 is a better than it was at 2350 15 months earlier. What he means is it's the best single opportunity to invest in indexes or actively managed funds (depending on your preference) and pick up the same ex...
by Portfolio7
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526440

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Down 11.4% which is roughly commensurate with an 80/20 portfolio, I think. I should be seeing a little benefit from VMNVX (Global min vol), which appears to have about 62% downside capture so far this year - but that's against the Global Mcap index (-18.5%), not against the S&P500 (-14.8% if I'm pul...
by Portfolio7
Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I hate ETFs
Replies: 82
Views: 5797

Re: Why I hate ETFs

I admit to enjoying the immediacy of ETFs, on the rare occasion I place buy or sell orders. That may be a function of the fact that my ETFs are in my IRAs, my 401Ks are populated with Mutual Funds. My 401Ks take at least two days to process: it's a pita waiting on it, and the scope for price changes...
by Portfolio7
Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 5% Rebalancing Bands Are Wrong
Replies: 65
Views: 4986

Re: Why 5% Rebalancing Bands Are Wrong

I'm not saying there is a bug in PV. I'm saying people misinterpret results. Aren't you surprised that rebalancing less often gave better results ? Personally, I'm not, because the portfolio rebalanced less often was heavier on stocks than the other in a period when stocks outperformed bonds. But t...
by Portfolio7
Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478099

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

If things go up from here, the mantra of the 11+ year bull market will annoyingly continue. We need another 1.5% down first! I believe in the bull! Tbh I wouldn't mind if people stopped talking about it, so I'm cool with the 1.5% - but I don't think we're at the end of the business cycle yet (thoug...
by Portfolio7
Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 491
Views: 41537

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Random question: When you see the dollar value drops, you really feel nothing? What's going through my mind are things like - "I could have bought a XXX with that!" or "That would have paid for X years of Y!" and so on. The sums are significant for most of us on the board. I do feel it - six figure...