Search found 255 matches

by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 up 1.85% in first four days of 2017
Replies: 13
Views: 2390

Re: S&P 500 up 1.85% in first four days of 2017

Trying to remember my guess for the S&P at years end=- does anyone remember the name of the post where we guessed? https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/default.aspx Yesterday I was in first place for a matter of minutes, I believe :( ! But I did say I'd be fine with losing if the market ende...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2320

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

Generally, yes, thought I think the word 'only' may be a bit problematic? It might be better to say that the FI portion of your portfolio is devoted to capital preservation, and the equity side to return? I'm not sure how best to think of it. Swenson wrote about this too, and pretty well convinced m...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you keep anything in your portfolio as a monument to your bad decisions?
Replies: 69
Views: 4783

Re: Do you keep anything in your portfolio as a monument to your bad decisions?

When I first moved to snow country I ended up putting my car in a ditch because I was impatient and didn't wait for my windshield to fully defrost, and with low visibility simply realized I had left the pavement too late. No harm done as I was moving very slowly, but my license plate holder got a li...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4148
Views: 1102954

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

It feels like a consolidation. A few folks taking profits, a few sharp drops, and more likely than not this just trails out over a few weeks before everyone settles down from the November jitters. Then you get the Christmas boost and we hit 2595 on the S&P and I will have I used all my luck for the ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6185

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I think that would be silly. No one should bet against the U.S. Which country do you think has accounted for the bulk of genuine business innovation in the last decade? Which do you think will account for the bulk of genuine business innovation going forward? +1 If I take this statement to mean any...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12608

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

Hi Bob, thanks for this great piece! I ran an initial calculation, just to see what it looked like, and now I'm trying to make sure I'm not making stupid mistakes in my calculations. I'm 50 years old and hope I'm roughly 12 years from retirement. I calculated the percentage of current savings vs the...
by Portfolio7
Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 5702

Re: The Personal Black Swan

While we are talking about "diversification" do some of you own funds from more than one company. I have assets at several custodians, but not for any of the reasons expressed here. DW & I own Vanguard and DFA funds, primarily. We also have a few small etfs from other companies. Virtually all of it...
by Portfolio7
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6185

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

Caduceus wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:07 am
I think that would be silly. No one should bet against the U.S.

Which country do you think has accounted for the bulk of genuine business innovation in the last decade? Which do you think will account for the bulk of genuine business innovation going forward?
+1
by Portfolio7
Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6185

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

Are you a betting man (or woman)? I am ok with a tilt towards Int'l, but only with about 10-15% of my portfolio. S&P is also up 15% this year. You're not tilting towards int'l, you're tilting away from int'l and strongly towards US. (Today, int'l is 47.6% of world market.) Sorry to confuse you, I c...
by Portfolio7
Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Next Bear Market, Ben Carlson
Replies: 13
Views: 2081

Re: The Next Bear Market, Ben Carlson

Ben has been posting solid material for years. His older blog posts are also worth perusal.
by Portfolio7
Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6185

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

Are you a betting man (or woman)?

I am ok with a tilt towards Int'l, but only with about 10-15% of my portfolio. S&P is also up 15% this year.
by Portfolio7
Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 260
Views: 35050

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

Calais, this is interesting. I hope it's ok to throw in my 2 cents, with both observations and questions: - I tilt to small cap due to historical risk/return trends and academic analysis of those trends and my assessment of their sustainability, not due to valuations. Valuations are tricky. I don't ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 8744

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

I agree with the several posts that 100% fixed income fails to minimize risk. I forget the source, but I've read that your AA should vary between 75/25 and 25/75. I think that's directionally correct, but the conclusion I came to after playing with all sorts of potential allocations is that anything...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"
Replies: 54
Views: 9351

Re: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"

Actually, I would hope there is another critical message conveyed by the interactive ad: That it actually is possible to build a million dollar nest egg without super-human abilities . That's the message I wish I had heard when I was younger, and it's one I've heard over and over again from many ot...
by Portfolio7
Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 38
Views: 2642

Re: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing

I admire Gibson's observation, but you can't just slap 10 asset classes together and hope it all works out. There are a lot of portfolios where the parts don't play so well together, no potential advantage over a 3 fund portfolio, plenty of potential disadvantage. I think to take advantage of this i...
by Portfolio7
Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA for children
Replies: 38
Views: 2599

Re: Roth IRA for children

Another Fidelity user here. My oldest has special needs, so that's a different discussion altogether. My youngest had his first job at age 15 and made almost $2,000. I told him if he put 50% into a Roth IRA, we'd match it. Free money. He got that pretty quick and went all in. So we went down to Fide...
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 3792

Re: Do Investors really underperform their investments

Chip wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:12 am
It's mentioned in Pfau's article, but let's remember that it was Bogleheads member tfb (Harry Sit - The Finance Buff) who first explored the problems with Dalbar's calculations and conclusions.
Chip, I wanted to thank you for this :beer :beer :beer ; I hadn't realized.
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 3792

Re: Do Investors really underperform their investments

One correlary to the DALBAR findings, at least one that occurred to me, is that they would appear to validate the AUM advisor model. If you pay an advisor 1%, but your returns are ~ 4% better because you didn't make all those behavioral errors, aren't you better off by 3%? This presupposes that the...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NASDAQ as a significant portfolio component?
Replies: 29
Views: 1689

Re: NASDAQ as a significant portfolio component?

At least with regard to the thread mentioning the QQQ ETF, it is Technology, Consumer Cyclical, and Healthcare "heavy": My particular Asset Allocation appears to be light on Tech and Healthcare vs the total market sector weighting (I write 'appears' because some of my portfolio funds are proprietar...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 3792

Re: Do Investors really underperform their investments

As far as precious metals funds, I have taken a good hard look but didn't buy in because of their poor long term records. I see them more as portfolio insurance, I didn't want to pay the premium. Definitely agree they aren't necessary, but I find it funny when posts start to pop up about adding to ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 3792

Do Investors really underperform their investments

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2017/10/09/investors-do-not-underperform-their-investments Dalbar continues their annual study results publication, suggesting investors underperformed their investments by 4.7% this year. Wade Pfau has noted errors in their methodology, early last March ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4148
Views: 1102954

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Also, I'm not certain, but won't Cape adjust down significantly when 2008 rolls off the books (10 year calc.) ? This is an interesting comment. Is that true? Please correct me if I am wrong but CAPE 10 is the current price divided by the earning over 10 years. When the market dropped the price to e...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NASDAQ as a significant portfolio component?
Replies: 29
Views: 1689

Re: NASDAQ as a significant portfolio component?

A number of portfolios work around a core and satellite type approach, even if 90% of it is your core 3-fund and 10% REIT, or 10% SCV. I don't see any strong philosophical reason not to own. Such funds are typically diversified, though to a lesser extent than many typical Index funds. I have 5% in a...
by Portfolio7
Sun Oct 22, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Observation on Edward Jones
Replies: 21
Views: 4268

Re: Observation on Edward ones

This is consistent with my experience with EJ. I have never invested with them, but I am considering a career change, and talked to a reasonably successful EJ guy about a year ago. The guy I talked to was fairly knowledgeable about several segments of the business, but flat out denied that they had ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4148
Views: 1102954

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

With CAPE at 31+, I've decided to reduce my stock allocation by 10% for each point above 30. Trimmed 10% and will trim another 10% at 32, and so on. If it hits 40, I'm completely out. The bear is coming! Also, if you're just looking at CAPE why not shift 10% of your stock allocation at a time to in...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4148
Views: 1102954

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

fantasytensai wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:25 pm
After all that, VTSAX finished in the green.
Well, that's it. You're off my 'contrary indicator' list. :wink:
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a crash coming soon?
Replies: 64
Views: 5677

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

If you are young, the most effective element of your wealth building is to save more. Assuming you have a reasonable AA, are averaging in with paycheck contributions, and that you don't panic and sell in a crash - then all that's really in your control is the saving part. I don't expect a 30% + even...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 47
Views: 4283

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

[/quote] We hear a lot of press these days thAt "everything is overpriced"-stocks, bonds, real estate etc. Imho this is not true. We don't know what risks will materiLize. 10 years from now we'll know what was overpriced and what was cheap, with 20/20 hindsight. [/quote] +1 Great comment. I want to ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"
Replies: 30
Views: 3869

Re: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"

Bogle is so sharp and nuanced and thoughtful in his public comments that I doubt anyone could find something that seriously contradicted his own words. The times he's strayed from his own advice he's been very open about. His followers contradict him infinitely more often :) +1 I trust very few wri...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on BONDS and REITS?
Replies: 13
Views: 1380

Re: Thoughts on BONDS and REITS?

Bonds or similar Fixed Income (Stable Value, CD, Money Market) are critical tools to control your volatility risk. REITs come with a TSM index fund already, so you don't need to mess with them as a separate asset class, like VNQ or VNQI. I invest in both domestic and international REITs and I think ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 on pace as least volatile year on record
Replies: 5
Views: 921

Re: 2017 on pace as least volatile year on record

I wonder if this is a result of trading algorithms providing liquidity and valuing the markets in similar fashion.... plus the steady flow of 401K $ into stocks and bonds via autopilot tending towards stability as well. I don't know enough to say yes or no, but it seams like a reasonable supposition...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 68
Views: 7188

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later

This sounds like an executive issuing cautionary information to nervous customers... reasonable thing to do. Meanwhile, the leading indicators of economic health suggests the market has room to run. :greedy More importantly, I need another 35 points out of the S&P 500 yet in order to make my predict...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does everyone keep track of your portfolio?
Replies: 107
Views: 7090

Re: How does everyone keep track of your portfolio?

There are many views available in the Fidelity site, that are useful. I personally use an Excel file also, without any automatic data pulls, which I'd like to add eventually. What I like about doing it this way: - I can structure the data the way I want to see it - It's easy to link into Net Worth c...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash
Replies: 36
Views: 3037

Re: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash

I remember wishing fervently I had money to invest after the crash. I was in college, every dime went to tuition, rent and food, and this looked like easy pickings... (it's easier to think that way when you've nothing at stake in the first place.)
by Portfolio7
Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your asset allocation and why?
Replies: 160
Views: 14439

Re: What's your asset allocation and why?

Ages 50/48 Roughly 70/30 allocation. The idea is 12% each, LC, MC, SC, REIT, Int'l SC, EM and 28% FI (or 11% ea and 34%, etc). After a lot of reading, I gravitated to a portfolio that was equally split between complementary segments of the market. I've strayed from that approach on occasion (like no...
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF
Replies: 32
Views: 3155

Re: Gold ETF

I have a simpler way of holding gold. I have a big pile of $100 bills and I light one on fire every month. Cheaper that way. Love this. I invested some money in a gold ETF and watched it go up and ultimately down over 5+ years. I keep it in my portfolio to remind myself not to do stupid things. Thi...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7386

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

That's certainly market timing, but it's a very different type of timing than the one people usually think about. You haven't changed your risk profile (kept the same stock:bond ratio, though I guess you could have switch out of consumer staples or something like that) or your expected returns. But...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash on the sidelines impact ?
Replies: 14
Views: 1565

Re: Cash on the sidelines impact ?

The only cash on the sidelines is the potential cash the Fed can create by depositing it into banks' accounts. An IPO is simply an exchange of ownership of the same asset(s). A private owner sold to a public one but the share they sold has a claim to the same assets. If you issue additional shares ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash on the sidelines impact ?
Replies: 14
Views: 1565

Re: Cash on the sidelines impact ?

There is no such thing as "cash on the sidelines" unless you mean the cash that is always there and doesn't change in quantity. The COTS metaphor imagines that the amount of cash available expands and shrinks, which is nuts. There is always the same amount of "cash" available and somebody has to ow...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 6822

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

Yeah, we were tested in some ways, in the dot.com and housing busts. It's different every time. Hopefully you learn something. We weathered the first one without touching anything; then we sold/bought our way through the second in a defined way (and came out ahead with a healthy dose of luck.) We ca...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing - Personal Philosophies
Replies: 43
Views: 3719

Re: Rebalancing - Personal Philosophies

I maintain a base AA, but will direct from 0% to 10% depending on circumstances (e.g. overweighted in Int'l Equities/EM at the moment.) This is not recognized best practice, but keeps my worst impulses contained, protecting against 'big mistakes'. I'd like to think Charlie Munger would approve that ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?
Replies: 45
Views: 4839

Re: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?

No answer, but some questions... Isn't an investment decision supposed to be based on yield? Is it logical that demand for stocks increase in a low rate environment? I mean, I think Bogleheads work off a different foundation to some degree, but I think economists would approach it from this angle? A...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1584
Views: 282272

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

11.7% as Sept. close. 70/30 split. Small Value tilt hasn't done so well this year, though it rebounded last month.
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any advice on moving my company 401k?
Replies: 17
Views: 1601

Re: Any advice on moving my company 401k?

I work for a F500 firm. Our 401(k) has a 2 basis point plan fee that we all get charged on top of our fund fees. I pay about 32 basis points in total, though I could get it down to about 7 basis points if I went with a 3 fund allocation. I slice and dice, using a mix of mostly Vanguard and DFA funds...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- Third Quarter Leaders
Replies: 13
Views: 1989

Re: 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- Third Quarter Leaders

Ok, this is pretty fun... #115 and closing! I'll be happy to take the loss, though, if the market decides to climb more than 85 points by year end. :beer
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So... What bond fund or bond-like instrument do you use?
Replies: 47
Views: 4393

Re: So... What bond fund or bond-like instrument do you use?

We have access to a Stable Value fund. These are bonds in insurance wrappers, designed to create a steady stream of income. Ours (we both worked at the same employer for years) is currently yielding a shade over 3%, and is split between 8 highly rated insurance companies (and did just fine in 2008),...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Bull Market could last years
Replies: 89
Views: 10065

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

The market tends to confound the best of investors, so I don't place big bets. I try to keep my bets limited, higher probability, lower risk. Saying that hundred of years of history are now definitively moot, is high risk. As for the article, it makes an interesting point, but the substantiation fee...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 4918

Re: Research Associates Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

There are old investors, and there are bold investors, but there are no old bold investors. (Howard Marks) (Edit to give attribution) Been skewed international all year, but I'm no TAA adherent; not about to abandon US stock. I'm a bull on Int'l, but it's probably time for the dollar to about-face :...
by Portfolio7
Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?
Replies: 12
Views: 2662

Re: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?

Its been said for sometime now that the market is overvalued and is due for a correction soon, yesterday the Fed Chair had a press conference in which she stated 5 times that the Feds cannot account for why inflation has not moved UPWARD, using the term "MYSTERY", this breeds uncertainty and if the...
by Portfolio7
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?
Replies: 36
Views: 10107

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

It cracks me up to so regularly see threads like this, which go so clearly against the basic tenets of what BH seems to be about: keep it simple, keep it low cost, don't try to time/predict the market. And threads abound about complex portfolio tuning and market guesswork... :oops: Sure, but part o...