Search found 207 matches

by Portfolio7
Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?
Replies: 9
Views: 1424

Re: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?

Its been said for sometime now that the market is overvalued and is due for a correction soon, yesterday the Fed Chair had a press conference in which she stated 5 times that the Feds cannot account for why inflation has not moved UPWARD, using the term "MYSTERY", this breeds uncertainty and if the...
by Portfolio7
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?
Replies: 36
Views: 9716

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

It cracks me up to so regularly see threads like this, which go so clearly against the basic tenets of what BH seems to be about: keep it simple, keep it low cost, don't try to time/predict the market. And threads abound about complex portfolio tuning and market guesswork... :oops: Sure, but part o...
by Portfolio7
Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA if you were just starting out again
Replies: 49
Views: 3202

Re: AA if you were just starting out again

I'd save more. Pensions dissappearing make it tougher, and I'd give a lot to be FI now, at 50. I undervalued FI when I was younger. I'd start earlier. I started investing at age 29, my wife at 25. My initial post-tax investing strategy would be be more consistent, and avoid several mistakes. My AA w...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 22
Views: 3092

Re: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing

This is a very intriguing topic. As a simpleton investor, I have nothing particularly constructive to add. However I do wonder what the above suggests for the average Boglehead with a 3 fund +/- tilt portfolio. I think of a 3-Fund portfolio as the go-to approach for investing. It seems like the ult...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: measurement of success of investment(s)
Replies: 33
Views: 1983

Re: measurement of success of investment(s)

Hi, thanks for the article.. although after a couple of read-troughs I'm not sure if I fully understand it ! :P I think a problem with the "Funded Ratio" is that how its depicts most of the gain is in the final years when at that time people should be taking less risks. Anyway, for reaching the ret...
by Portfolio7
Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: measurement of success of investment(s)
Replies: 33
Views: 1983

Re: measurement of success of investment(s)

Michael Kitces has a good article about tracking your overall progress towards your goals: https://www.kitces.com/blog/funded-ratio-for-individual-retirement-savings-goals/. I think this is the most important metric I have. In an individual fund/stock basis, I first decide on my approach. My asset a...
by Portfolio7
Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 17 years of returns: sobering (updated OP)
Replies: 123
Views: 24880

Re: 17 years of returns: sobering (updated OP)

Interesting thought. I started at about the same time, 1994. CAGR is difficult to calculate with a shifting DCA, but assuming consistent monthly contributions (which isn't quite true, employer contributions throw that off a bit), and then calculating the rate that yields my current balance vs the an...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 3811

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

In all honesty, I'm still at #1. I mean, there are always segments of the global market that don't look promising, and in this case it may be the US... but who can say for sure. Even if the reduced 10 year outlook is true, you don't know the SOR, and that's kinda important. That's another good reaso...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3944
Views: 1037854

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I have one... the single individual stock I own in my play money. First Hawaiian Bank dropped ten percent while the rest of the market rose. Go figure. Oh well, I needed to offset some capital gains on my tax filing anyway... Hey, First Hawaiian is the only stock I've every owned outside of indexes...
by Portfolio7
Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help! - How to improve small company 401k?
Replies: 19
Views: 1688

Re: Help! - How to improve small company 401k?

my 2 cents, fwiw... there are a lot of players in this space now, but several don't publish their cost structure. I've done some preliminary work for my wife's company, and I really liked what I learned about Employee Fiduciary, and I think the on-going analysis is trending towards selecting them. I...
by Portfolio7
Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think
Replies: 49
Views: 5523

Re: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think

I wish I could say this feeling isn't related to the long-running Bull market we are in. But I know if things were down I would be much more aggressive. I suppose there are worse sins than being a tactical asset allocator within a 10-20% range. :twisted: I expect there are a lot of ways to apply th...
by Portfolio7
Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: James Altucher's get-rich-quick pitch
Replies: 17
Views: 3503

Re: James Altucher's get-rich-quick pitch

Altucher is a pretty smart guy, who's made and lost and made a lot of money. His ideas on money don't seem to fit the Boglehead mold very well. I find him entertaining, but take his thoughts with a grain of salt. https://20somethingfinance.com/the-worst-401k-advice-youll-ever-get-from-james-altucher/
by Portfolio7
Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?
Replies: 35
Views: 3964

Re: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?

This thread reminds me of the Tolstoy quote from AK: "Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way." There are probably a thousand ways to not stick to a long-term investing plan, but buy and hold is pretty much just that. :beer
by Portfolio7
Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive vs. Active Portfolio Mgt ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1938

Re: Passive vs. Active Portfolio Mgt ?

Passive investing still has a few things going for it imho. :wink: If I were to make a list, well, I think I'd start with this: 1. Lower Cost. This is huge. 50 to 100 basis points over 20 years makes a big difference in your end point. 2. Simplicity. No need to identify superior active funds/manage...
by Portfolio7
Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones
Replies: 155
Views: 39982

Re: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones

It took 23 years of investing to reach $1M of investable assets - which, if you count my vested cash pension sitting in ST Treasuries, we did this year at age 50. First year we invested about $2K; that grew to around $15K/year within a couple years. In all the years since, we averaged very near that...
by Portfolio7
Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive vs. Active Portfolio Mgt ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1938

Re: Passive vs. Active Portfolio Mgt ?

Passive investing still has a few things going for it imho. :wink: If I were to make a list, well, I think I'd start with this: 1. Lower Cost. This is huge. 50 to 100 basis points over 20 years makes a big difference in your end point. 2. Simplicity. No need to identify superior active funds/manager...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM
Replies: 65
Views: 5375

Re: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM

Arnott suggests that investors with high risk/volatility tolerance should dump US stocks and load up on EM, especially EMV which of course his EM fundamental indexes target. He also suggests that in the US market the factor currently with the most attractive valuation characteristics is QUAL. Lower...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Learning from loss
Replies: 23
Views: 2792

Re: Learning from loss

Luckily I've had mostly small newbie mistakes. Buffet and/or Munger (memory fails me) have said that the key to successful investing is to avoid the big, damaging errors. I try to emulate the spirit of that statement by implementing the basics of a strong AA, diversification, risk management, etc - ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 22, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing Sequence of Return Risk - Ben Carlson
Replies: 5
Views: 1172

Re: Managing Sequence of Return Risk - Ben Carlson

Another excellent article by Carlson: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/08/managing-sequence-of-return-risk/ I found this remark interesting: (Sidenote: A dirty little secret about compound interest is that the majority of the results come once you’ve built a larger capital base.) Since I starte...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Despair?
Replies: 39
Views: 5777

Re: Irrational Despair?

I'm seeing lots of articles like this: 7 signs the stock market is ready to run smack into a wall http://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-signs-the-stock-market-is-ready-to-run-smack-into-a-wall-2017-08-18 Irrational despair seems to be the disorder of the day. Or is it quite rational? Should we sell ev...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two nice charts on default and duration risk
Replies: 11
Views: 1117

Re: Two nice charts on default and duration risk

That first chart would mesh well with another thread that discussed how Fed policy resulted in the chart for Treasuries pretty much always being a straight line. I'm not smart enough to try to replicate all the essential elements of that discussion. The contrast with non-treasury bonds, and the mix ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stable Value Funds vs Bond Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 2211

Re: Stable Value Funds vs Bond Funds

I am with your wife for now. I also use my Nationwide stable value fund paying 3.5%. The board here approved 3 years ago when we set up the 3 fund portfolio. Also, like I stated in another post. Women have something in the gut that tells them what is correct. Even sometimes when they know nothing. ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?
Replies: 35
Views: 3964

Re: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?

What long term plan? I did some dumb stuff out of ignorance, but it worked out ok. Here it is, warts and such: When I started I only knew I should diversify my 401K, without knowing what that meant except 'buy different stuff'. I had about every weird combination of assets you can imagine. I didn't ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3944
Views: 1037854

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

This might be the correction that many people are waiting for. Let us see if they have the courage to jump in. It just so happens that my managed account at Fidelity was liquidated Monday and the funds( 460k ) are finally available finally available today in my self directed account so I can start ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Buy a New Car?
Replies: 42
Views: 3038

Re: Should I Buy a New Car?

With no special conditions, I'd keep the Camry all the way; pay your $400-$1000 annually in regular maintenance to keep it running, and burn up those miles on an old reliable car. Special conditions: A) it's had a lot of repairs or B) you need to stay in a newer car due to an image requirement with ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Aug 07, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bearish trends beneath the surface
Replies: 13
Views: 1630

Re: bearish trends beneath the surface

Isn't this kinda normal for the markets? I guess that's kinda why I posted this. :happy My complete equity allocation is in VTSAX (Vanguard's TSM). All the slice-n-dice and factor arguments left me a little cold -- feeling like there might be something to it but not entirely sure and, even if so, w...
by Portfolio7
Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: Who Sold Stock During the 2008-9 Crash?
Replies: 85
Views: 7340

Re: Study: Who Sold Stock During the 2008-9 Crash?

This is like a confession of past sins. By way of comparison, I didn't sell a thing in 2000-2004, but still it was a scarring experience. I almost sold in March 2000, but stuck with B&H. I decided I would learn how to deal with future drawdowns. :greedy I was 100% equities in November 2007. By the e...
by Portfolio7
Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bearish trends beneath the surface
Replies: 13
Views: 1630

Re: bearish trends beneath the surface

Isn't this kinda normal for the markets? There's always a relative few big winners each year, there's always a certain amount of rotation at the top, and 70% of stocks are down in any given year, many in bear territory (Go Cal!). Anyways, sure breadth varies, but volatility is low, bears and bulls s...
by Portfolio7
Sun Aug 06, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 225
Views: 33881

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

Mlm wrote:I feel so inadequate :shock:
Yeah. Near as I can figure, DW and I are in top 5% of savers in this country for age and income, and this place is still an eye opener.
by Portfolio7
Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?
Replies: 90
Views: 9574

Re: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?

Swenson pretty much had me convinced of the value of Intermediate Treasuries to keep the 'safe' money safe. I admit I was an easy sell, and maybe need to revisit. Anyways, after input from several knowledgeable bogleheads, and investigating my 401(k), it seemed to make sense to look at the Stable Va...
by Portfolio7
Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using VMVFX Vanguard [Global] Minimum Volatility fund for international.
Replies: 18
Views: 1832

Re: Using VMVFX Vanguard [Global] Minimum Volatility fund for international.

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=816974 Apparently investors are bailing on low vol funds because they are underperforming even though that is what you would expect in an up market. I consider that good news for anyone invested. The question 4-12 months ago was whether low vol...
by Portfolio7
Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using VMVFX Vanguard [Global] Minimum Volatility fund for international.
Replies: 18
Views: 1832

Re: Using VMVFX Vanguard [Global] Minimum Volatility fund for international.

As long as you stay the course and don't punt and go to a traditional int'l fund if global min vol underperforms, it is a reasonable idea. Last year at the Bogleheads meeting Gus Sauter briefly talked about the quant fund run in house with real money (Vanguard seed money). . VMNVX Volatility Measur...
by Portfolio7
Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now time to move into international stocks?
Replies: 57
Views: 6794

Re: Is now time to move into international stocks?

I would suggest it depends on your investing strategy. If that is straight buy and hold, and that's the best proven strategy, then no, it's never 'time', except to rebalance to your plan AA. If you believe in modestly overweighting areas that are under-valued, and can commit to that for several year...
by Portfolio7
Wed Aug 02, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 276
Views: 23802

Re: How much money do you need to retire?

50 yrs old. House will not be paid off. $2.3M by age 60. My wife's business should throw off some money

$ exclude house and business (A loan for the latter will be paid off in 5 years.)
by Portfolio7
Tue Aug 01, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing - Less Effective?
Replies: 5
Views: 455

Factor Investing - Less Effective?

Just a heads up for Factor investors... Perusing Abnormal Returns, and it had a link to Capital Spectator, which ran a sample of factor based ETFs (randomly generated portfolios selecting from several ETFs) 1000 times and compared to the S&P 500. The results are not terribly encouraging. They admit ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Plan for Small Business
Replies: 9
Views: 717

Re: 401K Plan for Small Business

Thanks! I've looked at them also, but with less rigor. I've heard Paychex competes against (and their terms are similar to) ADP - the initial rate data I dredged up from various sources seemed consistent with ADP, anyways... ADP is in the running because my wife's firm uses them for payroll, they of...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Plan for Small Business
Replies: 9
Views: 717

Re: 401K Plan for Small Business

Thanks, appreciate the comments. It's a difficult area to do compares, I'll look into V/A as well. When you call Vanguard small business - make sure they know how small you are. That helps - they have pretty straightforward plans for fixed costs for very small businesses (like under 15 people). Som...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Plan for Small Business
Replies: 9
Views: 717

Re: 401K Plan for Small Business

Thanks, appreciate the comments. It's a difficult area to do compares, I'll look into V/A as well.
by Portfolio7
Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Plan for Small Business
Replies: 9
Views: 717

401K Plan for Small Business

I'm not sure if this is the right place to ask this, but looking for any advice on 401K Plans for small businesses. My wife's business currently uses Dyatech, and it's loaded with American Funds at 1.4% fees or more. Plan Cost is cheap, $500 annually. Less than 10 Employees on the plan. I ran a fina...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters
Replies: 14
Views: 2067

Re: Larry Swedroe: Grading The Forecasters

Ken Fisher bragged for years that he was at the top of the list over the long term, not sure if that was every year or if you just combine 10 or 15 years or whatever. He has a couple books, but I found the one I read less than compelling. He's pretty much a perma-bull, so he's going to out-perform t...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 27
Views: 2587

Re: International and US CAPE

.... At a high level, a direct application of cape to the investing process likely de-optimized one's portfolio. While these 10 year outlooks may be directionally indicative (not sure I buy that entirely), the pathway to get there is incredibly unpredictable. Staying the course has generated strong...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jul 27, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 27
Views: 2587

Re: International and US CAPE

My understanding of CAPE is that it's a notoriously poor market-timing tool (e.g. Cape data has been supportive of an overweight position in EM since 2008, but only in 2017 has that approach born much advantage. Europe/EAFE is very similar in that Cape is on the low end of the historical range, and...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 27
Views: 2587

Re: International and US CAPE

Thanks for the info! Jumping to the punch line, applying reversion to the mean, current p/e vs historical seems to suggests one should overweight in EM, underweight in US. My understanding of CAPE is that it's a notoriously poor market-timing tool (e.g. Cape data has been supportive of an overweight...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jul 26, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee
Replies: 64
Views: 6289

Re: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee

Just some noob questions & thoughts... I believe that one has to start with the concept of insurance, which is to protect against significant risk (not to protect against all risk.) Rather than insuring the principle via options, wouldn't it make a lot more sense (and be a lot less expensive) to onl...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BASE INVESTMENT or What Your Ruler
Replies: 14
Views: 889

Re: BASE INVESTMENT or What Your Ruler

I know the proper compare should be a similar portfolio... but as one poster said, my portfolio, being all index funds, is also my benchmark. That being pointless (I get what the market gives me!), I actually do compare to the S&P500. I also compare to lazy portfolios about once per year. I compare ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8299

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Right now, the world market looks like: 30% US stocks 27% non-US stocks 22% US bonds 21% non-US bonds Hi, can you provide the source for this info? I've seen several comments in the media to the effect that the Global stock/bond split is more like 40/60 vs the 57/43 shown here. I'm sure there is a ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jul 25, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8299

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Right now, the world market looks like: 30% US stocks 27% non-US stocks 22% US bonds 21% non-US bonds Hi, can you provide the source for this info? I've seen several comments in the media to the effect that the Global stock/bond split is more like 40/60 vs the 57/43 shown here. I'm sure there is a ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: % bogleheads of overall population
Replies: 82
Views: 10690

Re: % bogleheads of overall population

Us Gen Xers know we can't rely on pensions, SS is a roll of the dice, and then there is inflation... $1M aint' what it used to be. I'd like to hit $3M, but anything over $2M might entice me to leave the rat race. This stat doesn't surprise me at all. My inlaws were talking about winning the lottery...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ameriprise Recommendations
Replies: 2
Views: 469

Re: Ameriprise Recommendations

Just one more reason to stay away from Ameriprise (and many other financial advisers). Keep things simple and avoid trying to be too clever. Ameriprise was our first big mistake as young investors. We got stung for over $5K in loads, but it convinced us to drop Ameriprise and figure out how to inve...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?
Replies: 53
Views: 5049

Re: Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?

Some are very very bright. The kind of person you're talking about, who challenges you and brings new perspectives. Boutique firms and such, in my limited experience. Some are so-so. Quite a few have a lot of semi-relevant knowledge, but really don't grasp the essentials. Eating your own cooking doe...