Search found 695 matches

by CurlyDave
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 220
Views: 17605

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

...There are definitely different ways to think about SS. Some consider it the way you do, as a form of fixed income. Others view SS benefits as merely reducing the amount of income one needs to pull from one's portfolio and other income sources. I must say that I lean toward the latter view, mainl...
by CurlyDave
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 220
Views: 17605

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

...Inflation is not the only variable at work here. The value of the portfolio has also changed due to returns. After having withdrawn 6% of the portfolio's balance every year, a $1 million starting value would now be worth an inflation-adjusted $580k, for instance. Not quite. That might be what Ex...
by CurlyDave
Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 220
Views: 17605

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I have been retired for 11+ years (73 yo), and the variation on this method I use and really like to to take a monthly withdrawal of 0.5% of the current portfolio value. If you go back and look at the updated Trinity study, a non-inflation adjusted withdrawal of 6% is 30 year safe 93 to 98% of the ...
by CurlyDave
Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 220
Views: 17605

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I always feel like the strategy of picking your retirement start date and than tracking inflation seems complicated. What if you don’t have a hard “start date” but are working part time and also pulling from your portfolio? What if the week after you retire the market tanks? Do you base your 4% on ...
by CurlyDave
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security [impact of earnings on benefits]
Replies: 29
Views: 2755

Re: social security

CAGR of stocks has been ~10% for about a century. This beats the 8% guaranteed increase of SS benefits. Dave, It sounds like you may not agree but do you see how many would not consider an extremely risky/volatile investment as an alternative to almost perfectly secure, COLAed income? S A. I unders...
by CurlyDave
Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security [impact of earnings on benefits]
Replies: 29
Views: 2755

Re: social security

...I dont think I want to wait to collect SS , I could wait and start taking some IRA distribution or sell some stocks. Everything is payed for and I get health care through my wife job . I could live off the SS my cash savings and dividents without having to sell or take 401K withdrawls for at lea...
by CurlyDave
Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any downside to small brokerage buys?
Replies: 5
Views: 865

Re: Any downside to small brokerage buys?

ProfWengen wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:03 pm
Commission will kill you if you make small transactions (unless you're buying something that's commission free).
+1 Try to keep commissions under 2% of total being invested. Less is even better.
by CurlyDave
Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with inheritance
Replies: 17
Views: 2402

Re: What to do with inheritance

ProfWengen wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:23 pm
I wouldn't pay off the house. You could just put the $130k you owe into a 10yr bond and come out ahead so I don't see paying off the house as a good option. FWIW, I'd put it all into index funds...
+1 on index funds. +1 on not paying off house.
by CurlyDave
Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50,000: Should I buy now or wait for the market to drop further?
Replies: 43
Views: 6865

Re: $50,000: Should I buy now or wait for the market to drop further?

Why not divide $50,000 into 12 months and buy each month according to your AA? That way you are not market timing. Stocks are on sale right now. Whether the sale will last one month, one day or one week is unknown. Every single time I have divided up a large sum and averaged it into he market, I ha...
by CurlyDave
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keep a backup hot water heater?
Replies: 97
Views: 4703

Re: Keep a backup hot water heater?

Cold shower. Heat water in a metal dishpan on kitchen stove top. Carry dishpan into shower. Stand over dishpan and take a warm sponge bath. It's not that bad, and certainly beats the alternative. I am amazed that somebody has to explain this... are people nowadays that helpless? Actually there is a...
by CurlyDave
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keep a backup hot water heater?
Replies: 97
Views: 4703

Re: Keep a backup hot water heater?

sport wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:30 pm
If you change the anode in the tank every 5 years, or so, you will increase its life substantially.
+1

If others of about the same age are failing near you, now is the time to change the anode. Less than $50, less than an hour of time.
by CurlyDave
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage lump sum question - What would you do?
Replies: 23
Views: 2503

Re: Mortgage lump sum question - What would you do?

If you really, seriously want to pay off the mortgage (I think it is a bad idea) you could contact the bank and ask what kind of discount they would give you for an immediate payment in full. I suspect you could pay off the mortgage at 90 cents on the dollar, maybe less. Why would the bank give you...
by CurlyDave
Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Concerns of buying a home...what would you do?
Replies: 23
Views: 2089

Re: Concerns of buying a home...what would you do?

IMHO time is the best friend you have in the real estate game. If you want to stay in Orlando, keep looking there. To me, crack houses are a real crap shoot, a lot too risky for my blood. But if you have any DIY skills at all, you can find bargains. Over my lifetime, I have bought two houses to live...
by CurlyDave
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A strategy to pay off home at retirement?
Replies: 57
Views: 4192

Re: A strategy to pay off home at retirement?

...If your house was paid for, would you go to a bank and take out a $150k loan at 3.85% to invest? In my case, the answer is heck yes. I have mortgages on my house and 3 rental properties, at rates between 3.5 and 4.0% There is no reason to make an early payoff of money at such a favorable rate. A...
by CurlyDave
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage lump sum question - What would you do?
Replies: 23
Views: 2503

Re: Mortgage lump sum question - What would you do?

If you really, seriously want to pay off the mortgage (I think it is a bad idea) you could contact the bank and ask what kind of discount they would give you for an immediate payment in full.

I suspect you could pay off the mortgage at 90 cents on the dollar, maybe less.
by CurlyDave
Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets
Replies: 158
Views: 13416

Re: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets

While I worked for megacorp, I was always a lot more interested in the FI part than the RE part. The best part of the whole thing was that the closer I got to FI, the less onerous work became. If the boss told me to do some nitwit thing, I could explain why and suffer no consequences. When I declare...
by CurlyDave
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 3184

Re: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio

Let's assume for a minute that it is as easy as you imply to pick the winning tech stocks - the Facebooks and Googles over the Myspaces and AOLs. Wouldn't there be funds that specialize in this that would show outsized returns? Where are they? And if they existed, wouldn't their performance bring i...
by CurlyDave
Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Apple - macOS Mojave
Replies: 33
Views: 2308

Re: Apple - macOS Mojave

I usually wait about a week and read on-line reviews before updating.

Unless there is something compellingly bad about an application right now, a week is enough time for the major issues to at least become known on the forums.
by CurlyDave
Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finding an investment for soon-to-be-received large sum
Replies: 10
Views: 1174

Re: Finding an investment for soon-to-be-received large sum

Venture capital is certainly a possibility. Maybe as part of a small consortium. Personally, I would stick with Real Estate, although the completely passive requirement means it might be more like a REIT than as directly held real estate. IMHO one of the things that makes RE a good investment is the...
by CurlyDave
Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rain Jacket recommendations and care
Replies: 32
Views: 2489

Re: Rain Jacket recommendations and care

Liam Friend wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:03 pm
I really like my Cabela's Gore-Tex jacket. Water repellent, breathable, and I think still lifetime has a lifetime warranty. $129 but rarely if ever on sale.
+1 on Cabela's.
by CurlyDave
Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?
Replies: 77
Views: 8748

Re: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?

...Those with grave doubts about the long-term viability of capitalism don't have many options left, maybe direct real estate and precious metals I suppose. Direct real estate owners are capitalists just like stock owners. IDK about precious metals owners. I suspect they also count as capitalists. ...
by CurlyDave
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1099 and mortgage qualification
Replies: 15
Views: 855

Re: 1099 and mortgage qualification

Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America all said they wanted 2 years of tax returns before they would review my application. Working with a mortgage broker, I was able to find other offers, but they were for loans like 5 year ARM. Nothing currently in the 15, 30 year fixed rate world. If the choice cam...
by CurlyDave
Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hypothetical Question - Market Timing
Replies: 43
Views: 2499

Re: Hypothetical Question - Market Timing

There are always people who will tell you that a correction is "just around the corner". But, they have been saying this for years. In 2016 a correction was inevitable -- result S&P up 12%. 2017 predictions are the same, result +21.7%, 2018, to date + 9.7%--I think we will make +10% or maybe a lot m...
by CurlyDave
Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Botched countertop installation - leave it as-is or risk the repair?
Replies: 78
Views: 8425

Re: Botched countertop installation - leave it as-is or risk the repair?

...The install was not done correctly for sure, but I doubt you will have any luck getting them to do a full re-do. I'm betting the most you get out of them is a re-caulk/silicon job. Too much risk to rip it all out to try and get the remaining 10% out of you. Especially because this is a bit of an...
by CurlyDave
Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Botched countertop installation - leave it as-is or risk the repair?
Replies: 78
Views: 8425

Re: Botched countertop installation - leave it as-is or risk the repair?

You've just proved my point and completely contradicted yourself. As you acknowledge, the backsplash removal is likely to damage stuff (the wall, backsplash, ect). - The counter material is on a TWO MONTH BACKORDER! So your kitchen will be in disarray for 3+ months before a new backsplash is instal...
by CurlyDave
Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Botched countertop installation - leave it as-is or risk the repair?
Replies: 78
Views: 8425

Re: Botched countertop installation - leave it as-is or risk the repair?

We tallied it up and the majority is in favor of a Lift & Redo. I'm struggling to understand how so many people could possibly recommend the 'Lift & Redo" option. How can you possibly justify all of the work/mess/problems just to fix one missing inner bead of caulk, when there will already be a pro...
by CurlyDave
Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis - Mortgage, Emergency Fund, etc.
Replies: 51
Views: 4363

Re: Analysis Paralysis - Mortgage, Emergency Fund, etc.

Are we crazy that within a week we went from ready to do a $200k recast to ready to put $200k in the market? I think it is a great idea. And there is a very good reason I have not seen expressed yet. Your mortgage is expressed and paid in nominal dollars. Even the most pessimistic estimates of real...
by CurlyDave
Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent Increase or Not?
Replies: 25
Views: 2607

Re: Rent Increase or Not?

Landlord here. When I have a vacancy I try to re-rent at full market rate. After that I try to let the rent lag the market by about 1/12 of one month's rent. The reasoning is that I will have a one month vacancy if a tenant moves out, so I am willing to accept slightly under market rates in order to...
by CurlyDave
Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time to look at SS [When should I take Social Security?]
Replies: 55
Views: 5062

Re: Time to look at SS [When should I take Social Security?]

2. The inflation correction for SS benefits is the Chained CPI, not the same CPI-W usually used to correct nominal for real dollars. It is smaller than the CPI-W. Social Security COLAs are based on CPI-W, not chained CPI. https://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/cfr20/404/404-0272.htm https://www.ssa.gov/oact/S...
by CurlyDave
Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time to look at SS [When should I take Social Security?]
Replies: 55
Views: 5062

Re: Time to look at SS [When should I take Social Security?]

...I agree that with an 8% real growth rate one will be better off claiming early regardless of longevity. But it's less clear, CurlyDave, that one is also better off even with 5%. For example, with 5% real growth someone with a Normal Retirement Age (NRA) of 66 needs to collect only past age 86.0 ...
by CurlyDave
Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time to look at SS [When should I take Social Security?]
Replies: 55
Views: 5062

Re: Time to look at SS

I am now 73. I took SS at 62 and have never regretted it for a second. For 11 years I have spent Uncle's money while my own portfolio has grown at a lot more than 8%. Either use a calculator that takes time value of money into account, or build your own Excel spreadsheet that does it. It takes a few...
by CurlyDave
Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nest vs Arlo (or other) security camera & system
Replies: 16
Views: 1183

Re: Nest vs Arlo (or other) security camera & system

Go hardwired for security cameras.

I can guarantee that the exact time you want to look at the video from the camera will be when someone has neglected to recharge the battery.
by CurlyDave
Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental properties - Sell at a loss or hold on?
Replies: 14
Views: 1570

Re: Rental properties - Sell at a loss or hold on?

Sandtrap is right. The real problem here is the management company. If you can not/will not/don't want to manage it yourself, a small-scale rental business is a miserable thing to own. DW and I own 12 rental units and have managed them ourselves from the very first one. It has been a fantastic side ...
by CurlyDave
Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bench vise recommendation
Replies: 20
Views: 1350

Re: bench vise recommendation

I have used a Harbor Freight vise for the past 30 years. Built two houses with my own two hands, a lot of woodwork and some metal work. Get a cheap vise and see how much you use it. If you want an expensive one after that, go ahead, you won't be out a lot of money. I bet you will decide that the vis...
by CurlyDave
Sat Sep 01, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Contemplating trading in a 2-year old car with <25k miles...
Replies: 23
Views: 1779

Re: Contemplating trading in a 2-year old car with <25k miles...

I have a 2017 Outback. I compared it to the Forrester before I bought, and agree about the seat. Also the Outbacks are much nicer riding than the Forresters. The 3.6 does not have enormous acceleration, but is definitely better than the 2.0 engine. It is a very nice car -- be sure to get the Eyesigh...
by CurlyDave
Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33762

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well, the last day of August was another good day. Up 0.58% for the day.
by CurlyDave
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33762

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well, our portfolio soared 1.57% today. What do you own that went up that much today? Individual stock holdings? We hold both index funds and individual stocks. I am a strong believer that investors need to have some "fun money" which can be used for whatever they want. Maybe I have been very lucky...
by CurlyDave
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33762

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

...Is the GDP number real or nominal? If real, that’s good news. Otherwise it might indicate inflation is finally starting to accelerate... I don't think it makes any difference whether GDP increase is stated in real or nominal terms. The 4.2% number we see today is year over year, so the most real...
by CurlyDave
Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33762

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

inbox788 wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:49 pm

...Alternatively, if it stayed level (on average) after "soaring" 0.09% today and everyday for 200 trading days, it would mean 18% gain over the year...
Actually, the year-long growth would be found from the formula 1+G = (1.0009)^200 = 1.197 or 19.7% growth.
by CurlyDave
Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33762

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well, our portfolio soared 1.57% today.
by CurlyDave
Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns
Replies: 153
Views: 13706

Re: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns

Luckygirl wrote:
Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:31 pm
Would these results be similar if you were taking RMD’s starting in 2000? Every year the amount you have to take goes up.
There is no law that you must spend the RMD. You can withdraw and then re-invest after paying taxes on the withdrawal.
by CurlyDave
Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The first million is the hardest?
Replies: 46
Views: 9157

Re: The first million is the hardest?

Lost of good comments on the first part being the hardest. Now let me tell you what made it easier for me. When I worked at megacorp and was starting in investing I was part of an informal investing club. Two other like-minded people and myself would sit together in the cafeteria and discuss investi...
by CurlyDave
Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Placing an ETF trade on the weekend
Replies: 17
Views: 1521

Re: Placing an ETF trade on the weekend

FireProof wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 2:06 pm
Simple answer: don't do it
+1

Get out of bed Monday morning and know for sure what will happen.
by CurlyDave
Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does it make sense to move from VOO to a bucket of stocka
Replies: 13
Views: 1198

Re: Does it make sense to move from VOO to a bucket of stocka

Would it make sense to move some of my portfolio from VOO to a bucket of stocks that have same dividend as VOO but greater growth (this bucket of stocks are a pick from S&P holdings). Thanks in advance for your input. Even if you decided that moving from VOO to a bucket of stocks would be a good id...
by CurlyDave
Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Payoff?
Replies: 27
Views: 2675

Re: Mortgage Payoff?

Investing and earning a higher return is harder than it sounds because you have a sequence of returns risk. Here is a simplistic example of this that I have posted before. Actually, in this instance there is no sequence of returns risk. This is a consequence of the fact that the OP is talking about...
by CurlyDave
Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Take pension immediately upon retirement, or use 457 funds?
Replies: 36
Views: 1702

Re: Take pension immediately upon retirement, or use 457 funds?

I will start by saying that I am a crusty old geezer who believes in self-sufficiency. The money in the 457 is yours . If you spend your money until it is gone and then rely on the not-so-tender mercies of someone else, who does not have your best interest at heart, you may find out that some sharp ...
by CurlyDave
Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Payoff?
Replies: 27
Views: 2675

Re: Mortgage Payoff?

I would keep the mortgage and keep the money invested. You already have $40k that you didn't have last year. Why stop now? If there is a downturn there is no need to pay off the mortgage immediately -- just keep making payments on it until the market recovers. Essentially you are making money by arb...
by CurlyDave
Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you calculate net worth with pensions?
Replies: 105
Views: 6744

Re: How do you calculate net worth with pensions?

I definitely count the value of my pension and SS when determining an appropriate AA. I think the idea that a pension is not an asset is simply nonsense. Now, it is certainly an asset that can not be passed on to my heirs, and counting it toward my AA means that any inheritance will be unbalanced th...
by CurlyDave
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inheritance—Advice Requested
Replies: 63
Views: 6962

Re: Inheritance—Advice Requested

... my tentative plan is to invest half the money now and dollar cost average the rest starting six months from now, divided into six equal portions. IMHO you need to look at this a little differently. The inheritance is already 100% invested, with a very conservative Asset Allocation. The second y...
by CurlyDave
Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oversimplifying expected return on rental properties
Replies: 12
Views: 1157

Re: Oversimplifying expected return on rental properties

You guys keep right on thinking this way -- more properties for us to choose from.

Our rentals have done better than our stocks over our lifetime.

The oversimplification is ignoring the effects of inflation on rents and the tax advantages of rental properties.