Search found 3170 matches
- Sun Apr 16, 2023 1:34 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: How to prioritize investments and mortgage payoff
- Replies: 27
- Views: 3075
Re: How to prioritize investments and mortgage payoff
If you need to fix the AC for the upcoming summer, then you should. As far as the rest of your questions go, given the risk to your job and the overall instability in the tech industry, you’d be better to keep as much liquidity as possible. The $40K toward the mortgage is particularly bad because it won’t reduce your monthly payment and is inaccessible if you were to need cash. The single most valuable asset that you have during a period of unemployment/uncertainty is cash in the bank. Re-evaluate in 6 months. +1 Everywhere I look I see news of high inflation and economic measures to restrain it. It sounds like a period of economic uncertainty has either started or is coming soon. Cash in the bank is very good. 529 plans and mortgage paydo...
- Sun Apr 16, 2023 1:02 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Side hustles for mid to late career folks
- Replies: 112
- Views: 16403
Re: Side hustles for mid to late career folks
It seems to me that side hustles are less appealing to mid to late career professionals who are doing well in their career. Would you agree? Have you seen any examples of good side hustles for mid to late career professionals? It seems that a lot of side hustles that were appealing when I was in my 20s don't pay well enough to be appealing today. (Actionable purpose: I am looking for a side hustle that pays well enough to be worth my time.) My side hustle was rental real estate investing. I am an engineer and fairly handy, so I bought "unloved" houses, not complete fixer-uppers, but distressed for a correctable reason. DW and I repaired, upgraded and rented them out. When I retired, the "side hustle" moved with us to a ...
- Mon Jan 30, 2023 11:41 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Buy vs. Rent
- Replies: 951
- Views: 58073
Re: Buy vs. Rent
...You've gotten some good responses here. As I noted early on, the buy vs rent is not always, or even primarily, a financial decision. It's a lifestyle choice as much as anything. Predictability of large expenses has massive value in one's other lifestyle choices... In addition to being a lifestyle choice, buying offers a unique opportunity to some people. If you are at all handy, owning offers the potential of capital increases through adding "sweat equity". And, this shadow income is treated very favorably by the tax laws. If I work a side gig, the net income is all taxable -- improvements on my home are not taxed until realized, and then there is a substantial exclusion plus capital gains treatment for the value increase. Thi...
- Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:06 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Income stability --> stay the course?
- Replies: 39
- Views: 6623
Re: Income stability --> stay the course?
2) Given the average annual return in the AA range of 70/30 to 30/70 is too small to matter, you should pick an AA that let you "Sleep Well At Night" (SWAN) during time like this. 4) Your AA is too aggressive. Your AA had failed your own test if you cannot continue investing at time like this. KlangFool Just for some context - we bought a house earlier this year. I had asked for a home purchase preparedness review earlier this year and got some really good advise (ref: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=367934). We heeded most of the advise and are in a much better situation as a result. Thanks for all the help :) Prior to house purchase, I was fairly aggressive in purchasing stock - as we did not have any debt. But...
- Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:38 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: submit ?s: Bill Bengen on the 4% rule of thumb
- Replies: 47
- Views: 6646
Re: submit ?s: Bill Bengen on the 4% rule of thumb
Jon has he done any research on variable withdrawal rates? And if so, what are his findings? Is a 4% **Variable withdrawal rate sustainable? (**withdrawing 4% of the Jan 1 portfolio balance of the new year and every year the 4% withdrawal is based on the portfolio balance at Jan 1) Thanks Dave I do not know about Bengen, but the Updated Trinity Study (Cooley, Hubbard and Waltz, in the Journal of Financial Planning April 2011 "Portfolio Success Rates: Where to Draw the Line" -- it is linked in the Wiki if you look https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/article/journal/APR11-portfolio-success-rates-where-draw-line ) answered a similar question which is "portfolio success rate vs. withdrawal rate" without inflation a...
- Thu Aug 11, 2022 8:09 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Retiring With 100% Stocks
- Replies: 45
- Views: 6256
Re: Retiring With 100% Stocks
Sequence of Returns Risk has a very precise mathematical meaning. Yes, it does. A constant percentage withdrawal strategy absolutely does reduce that risk to zero. Nope. "Sequence of returns risk" refers to the the fact that, for any given set of periodic returns, receiving the lower returns early in a sequence of decumulation will produce less lifetime consumption than receiving the lower returns later in the sequence. This sequence effect manifests regardless of the withdrawal strategy: constant percentage, variable percentage, or constant real dollars. All of those strategies will produce lower lifetime consumption with a poor sequence of returns. The only difference is the way the withdrawal strategy is designed to respond to...
- Thu Aug 11, 2022 1:13 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Retiring With 100% Stocks
- Replies: 45
- Views: 6256
Re: Retiring With 100% Stocks
The other very interesting feature of any constant percentage withdrawal strategy is that it eliminates sequence of returns risk. It'd be an interesting feature if it truly eliminated sequence of returns risk. But it doesn't do that. Sequence of Returns Risk has a very precise mathematical meaning. A constant percentage withdrawal strategy absolutely does reduce that risk to zero. We tend to play fast and loose with that mathematical meaning and call a lot of things SORR that really are not. Constant percentage withdrawal does not reduce all risks and does not prevent some very undesirable results. But those risks are not SORR in the original mathematical sense of SORR. This doesn't mean that those other risks are not real. If market retur...
- Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:36 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Retiring With 100% Stocks
- Replies: 45
- Views: 6256
Re: Retiring With 100% Stocks
+1Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:56 am I personally prefer 2.5% constant-percentage (not fixed dollar + inflation) and call it a day. This gives you the best result long-term (at the expense of having to cut back in stagflation).
As far as AA, 100/0 is ridiculous in retirement. I recommend at least 95/5 if not 90/10.
The other very interesting feature of any constant percentage withdrawal strategy is that it eliminates sequence of returns risk.
- Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:17 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Upgrade to iPhone 14?
- Replies: 30
- Views: 3909
Re: Upgrade to iPhone 14?
... Just don’t want to get one if the upgrades are not worth the cost. I don't think anyone can make that decision for you. Since you can afford it, get the one you want. I have the 13 pro and use the camera several times a week. A lot of photography to document things for managing rentals. Someone gives me a check -- take a picture for permanent records. See a needed repair -- take a picture to send to repair person. See a clogged gutter overflowing -- take a short movie. A new contract for some service -- take a picture. The 3 lenses are really handy, and resolution has improved to the point where the phone can be a reasonable substitute for a copier. But, that is mostly business use. For personal I could get by with an older phone and o...
- Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:45 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Buyer of Our House Wants $5k "Credit" for Something That was Open and Obvious
- Replies: 160
- Views: 14248
Re: Buyer of Our House Wants $5k "Credit" for Something That was Open and Obvious
...Yes, the buyers walking from the deal is a nightmare scenario. We have two little kids. Listing is a nightmare. We just want to be done. But simultaneously this feels like a shakedown. It is a shakedown. Welcome to the rough and tumble world of real estate. I have been through this dozens of times. They want a price reduction, the flooring is just a convenient excuse to ask for one. Keep this in your bag of tricks the next time you buy real estate. In a cooling market any inspection defect is a good excuse to ask for a discount. The obviousness of the flooring issue is not the question. Do not take this personally. Real estate has been a significant part of our portfolio for many decades. I have done far tougher things to sellers. Somet...
- Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:55 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: shocked at the price of buying checks!
- Replies: 93
- Views: 11080
Re: shocked at the price of buying checks!
Has anyone had experience ordering business checks from any of these websites? I don't want to use Deluxe, that Chase redirects me to. The cheapest option on walmartchecks seems to be either 2-to-a-page or 3-to-a-page business checks, but I've never had experience using something like that before. Is it the same if I order a manual check or a laser check? I want to make sure the checks won't bounce or cause issues. I use the 3 to a page business checks. I get them from a different vendor than Walmart, but the principle is the same. I can either print them on my computer or write them by hand. My bank accepts them either way. I run a small business and both receive and write many more checks every month than most people on this thread do in...
- Sat Jun 18, 2022 12:38 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Any reason to NOT get the Apple Card?
- Replies: 80
- Views: 12757
Re: Any reason to NOT get the Apple Card?
I really like my Apple card. I use it for almost everything. There is no number printed on the card, and no security code, so I can give it to a waiter at a restaurant without worrying about someone stealing the number by just writing it down. The numbers are on my iPhone so I can use it for internet purchases. Unfortunately that's not how it works, no one has time to write the name/number/pin down they just ring your bill up correctly and swipe. Then create a second bill for a few bucks and swipe the card a second time and never present you with it anything under $25-$35 does not need a signature in most states. Hell in most states any amount does not need a signature it's just a holdover that most companies do not understand from the com...
- Sat Jun 18, 2022 12:24 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Buy Mom’s House?
- Replies: 80
- Views: 8159
Re: Buy Mom’s House?
... Can other family help? We have no other family members who can help or care. Most of my family doesn't like my mother... This part worries me a lot. Other family members may not want to help, but when she passes they may be right there with their hands out wanting "their" part of the equity in the house. You need an attorney. Another issue that has been mention is upkeep of the house. Often elders do not have the money, the willingness, or the knowledge to keep a house up. You would be amazed how fast seemingly minor issues can grow to be huge financial problems if neglected. I have personally seen situations where the "solution" to a small area of rotting floor was a throw rug until it became a gaping hole.
- Fri Jun 17, 2022 11:14 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Is there a trick to renting a portable restroom?
- Replies: 36
- Views: 3829
Re: Is there a trick to renting a portable restroom?
Look at construction sites and get one intended for workers.
In my rural community they are about $50/month. That is a far cry from the prices you are seeing.
One day will be close to the same as one month.
The also come with integrated electric power panels, power meter and temporary power poles attached -- all for less than you are paying. You do not have to hook up the electricity for the restroom to work.
In my rural community they are about $50/month. That is a far cry from the prices you are seeing.
One day will be close to the same as one month.
The also come with integrated electric power panels, power meter and temporary power poles attached -- all for less than you are paying. You do not have to hook up the electricity for the restroom to work.
- Fri Jun 17, 2022 11:03 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Any reason to NOT get the Apple Card?
- Replies: 80
- Views: 12757
Re: Any reason to NOT get the Apple Card?
I really like my Apple card. I use it for almost everything. There is no number printed on the card, and no security code, so I can give it to a waiter at a restaurant without worrying about someone stealing the number by just writing it down. The numbers are on my iPhone so I can use it for internet purchases. The integration with my iPhone is very tight. I get a notification of every charge a few seconds after it is made. While I am still at the checkout counter, so I can challenge any overcharge in real time. Any unauthorized use is going to show up in real time also. Not a real plus, but a psychological bonus. The card is literally made of titanium. It makes a metallic ring when I drop it on a sales counter. Definitely an attention-gett...
- Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:26 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: What is the purpose of a fun money allocation?
- Replies: 57
- Views: 4832
Re: What is the purpose of a fun money allocation?
It depends on your philosophy.
I just "let it ride". Although I make charitable contributions with highly appreciated stock. I already had fun money, but I put it all, 5% of our portfolio, into AAPL in 2005. Was that lucky -- absolutely yes. BUT anyone who thinks it was 100% luck needs to read Chapter 4 of The Richest Man in Babylon.
My rules of fun money are: (1) put in no more than 5% of portfolio. (2) Let it ride in a separate account. (3) If it decreases put in no more than 5% of new contributions.
The purpose of my fun money is to keep analyzing the market, keep abreast of financial news, keep my interest up.
- Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:05 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: BH Real Estate Folks: Would you sell it, or rent it out?
- Replies: 33
- Views: 2876
Re: BH Real Estate Folks: Would you sell it, or rent it out?
1. Read what Sandtrap has to say very carefully. He has been there and done that. 2. DW and I own rentals. Started with SFHs and now have three 4-plexes (12 units). I have owned rentals for 40+ years. Owning rental properties more than about one hour drive away from home has always been a poor choice for me. Can't visit often enough, can't self-maintain, can't inspect tenant landscape maintenance, etc. I have never had a hired property manager work out well. You think 8-10% of rents, but that is just the start of it. Maintenance is extra, landscaping is extra, taking phone calls from tenants is extra, everything is extra. They will eat your lunch for you and then demand desert. "Professional" management is the fastest way I know o...
- Wed Jun 08, 2022 8:07 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Shared driveway and joined/adjacent retaining walls
- Replies: 47
- Views: 3685
Re: Shared driveway and joined/adjacent retaining walls
...We would also each want to back up about 5 feet into the other’s motor court. In other words, the individual motor courts are large enough to allow backing up and turning around, but it would be tight… so backing 5 feet into their property rather than doing a 3-4 point turnaround would be good. Right there is a huge negative. Even if the neighbor has the best intentions in the world, most people are incapable of parking correctly in an unfamiliar situation. The neighbor's guests will inevitably block this access. Think about what happens when you back into the plumbing truck at his place. Or when his daughter has a boyfriend who parks his jalopy blocking your access every day. And a shared retaining wall is a lot more problematic than a...
- Sun Jun 05, 2022 11:26 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: New RV pay cash or finance some?
- Replies: 57
- Views: 6024
Re: New RV pay cash or finance some?
... Plus, 5-6% is a high hurdle rate to try and beat by investing... For the past 50 years the nominal CAGR of the S&P 500 has been 11.17% according to Investopedia . Since the loan is repaid in nominal dollars, 5-6% doesn't look that high to me. With inflation running 8+% I would borrow the max that I could unless there was some reason i felt my income might take a serious hit. But, if that were the case I wouldn't be buying an expensive toy. So what happens if you have a lost decade where the market goes nowhere? Personally, I would compare the Loan Rate against an Investment Grade Bond rate not an expected return from equities. WoodSpinner You got me to do some research. Take a look at this website: http://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/e...
- Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:27 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: New RV pay cash or finance some?
- Replies: 57
- Views: 6024
Re: New RV pay cash or finance some?
I was not suggesting a 50 year RV loan. The 50 year CAGR was intended to show the relative consistency of S&P returns over long periods.punkinhead wrote: ↑Sun Jun 05, 2022 4:43 amWhat matters is what your money is doing during the term of the loan, not the 50 year average growth of the market. Taking a 50 year loan on an RV doesn't strike me as a good idea. Maybe the market will return 11% for the next 5 years, maybe it won't, but you'll certainly be paying that 5-6% interest.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Sun Jun 05, 2022 2:11 amFor the past 50 years the nominal CAGR of the S&P 500 has been 11.17% according to Investopedia.WoodSpinner wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 8:04 am ... Plus, 5-6% is a high hurdle rate to try and beat by investing...
Since the loan is repaid in nominal dollars, 5-6% doesn't look that high to me.
- Sun Jun 05, 2022 2:11 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: New RV pay cash or finance some?
- Replies: 57
- Views: 6024
Re: New RV pay cash or finance some?
For the past 50 years the nominal CAGR of the S&P 500 has been 11.17% according to Investopedia.WoodSpinner wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 8:04 am ... Plus, 5-6% is a high hurdle rate to try and beat by investing...
Since the loan is repaid in nominal dollars, 5-6% doesn't look that high to me.
With inflation running 8+% I would borrow the max that I could unless there was some reason i felt my income might take a serious hit. But, if that were the case I wouldn't be buying an expensive toy.
- Sun Jun 05, 2022 1:58 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Should we buy a cheap home for a mentally ill family member?
- Replies: 61
- Views: 8939
Re: Should we buy a cheap home for a mentally ill family member?
As a small-time landlord I think this would not be a good plan. I once had a family rent an apartment for a mentally ill daughter. 20 with 3 children. The rinky-dinks in that unit drove me nuts. I refused to renew the lease.climber2020 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 04, 2022 4:08 pm How about everyone pitching in and renting a small apartment for the family? You’ll only need to do this until the last kid turns 18 and leaves the house, so the overall cost may be lower.
If you’re going to take your money and set it on fire, this seems to be a relatively lower risk way of doing it.
I suspect you would either get an eviction or refusal to renew, which would mean even greater instability for the children.
- Sun Jun 05, 2022 1:28 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Retirement: Income to Net Worth Ratio
- Replies: 181
- Views: 14257
Re: Retirement: Income to Net Worth Ratio
A bigger part of my question was more about the ratio itself, and less if 2.5% is enough to retire or not (though good to hear for sure). Is 5% growth to NW per year feel worthwhile to keep working, or is it low? I don't have much context on evaluating if 5% is good or bad. If it was like 20% it would obviously big relative value. The 5% you are talking about is your contribution to NW. The growth of your NW consists of both your contribution and the market increase of your portfolio. The nominal CAGR of the S&P 500 over the past 50 years has been 11.17%, around 7% after inflation. Depending on your AA your portfolio increases may well exceed your contributions. DW and I retired 15 years ago and our NW continues to increase. Of course ...
- Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:58 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: DCA vs Lump sum in todays environment
- Replies: 33
- Views: 3706
Re: DCA vs Lump sum in todays environment
Hello Boggleheads, I recently sold a house and have about $400,000 to invest into 50% total US and 50% total international mutual funds. I don’t plan to touch the funds for at least 10 to 20 years. The market is currently down for the year and seems to be a lot of uncertainty with the war in Ukraine and with rising interest rates. I know lump sum is usually better then dollar cost average, but in todays environment would you still advise to lump sum or dollar cost average. I was thinking of dollar cost average for one year period but just wanted to get some other opinions. Thank you In my entire life, I have only had lump sums twice, all the rest of the investments have been from salary, which is kind of a forced DCA. The first time I divi...
- Thu Jun 02, 2022 6:58 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
- Replies: 22381
- Views: 2120889
- Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:57 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: elderwise's investment side discussion
- Replies: 50
- Views: 3383
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Right now I would rather have a friendly game of poker with Atilla the Hun on one side and Dracula on the other than short oil.elderwise wrote: ↑Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:42 pm Shorting OIL By buying 3x inverse Oil etn NRGD is also a good idea.
No way I think it's sustainable for OIL at our pumps to go to 8 9$ per gallon and stay there..
More than tech I feel OIL has to self correct..even if inflation keeps going up the pain of filling your tank at 2x 3x is unsustainable long term..
- Thu Jun 02, 2022 8:06 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Help! Mistakenly borrowed from Inherited IRA based on Financial Advisor Advice
- Replies: 78
- Views: 6810
Re: Help! Mistakenly borrowed from Inherited IRA based on Financial Advisor Advice
An underpayment is charged interest at the Federal short-term rate plus three percent. This is compounded daily, which hurts a little more, but it is not a huge monster to be greatly feared.
It has to be addressed, but it does not have to be addressed as an emergency. Take the time to get good advice and develop a strategy.
- Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:50 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
- Replies: 22381
- Views: 2120889
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Looking like a soaring morning so far.
- Tue May 31, 2022 11:34 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: house purchase: to use an agent or not
- Replies: 32
- Views: 3446
Re: house purchase: to use an agent or not
Will be buying a house in the next year, perhaps the next few months, and I'm wondering if we should use an agent or not. We are in a pricey market (Colorado), and we are cash buyers. Advantage I can see for not using an agent: no buyer's percentage to pay, so our offer would be more attractive. We would use a lawyer to handle the paperwork. What are the disadvantages of not using an agent? Thanks. The buyer's agent is paid from the overall commission the seller has already agreed to--your proposal has no advantage to the seller. As an alternative, consider having no agent while looking, but allow the seller's agent to represent both sides on the deal. Usually you can negotiate a 1% to 1.5% rebate of the commission to you. I have done this...
- Mon May 30, 2022 1:29 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Do you include real estate in your asset allocation?
- Replies: 82
- Views: 6897
Re: Do you include real estate in your asset allocation?
For those who do consider rental properties in asset allocation: - what value do you use (current market value? CMV less mortgage? monthly income? ...)? - what adjustments, if any, do you make to your stock/bond asset allocation as a result of including the rentals? I use CMV of real estate. All real estate, rentals and our residence*. Mortgages are not deducted from market value of real estate, I consider them to be debt that is counted against net worth. The reason is that mortgages are the lowest interest way to borrow money. Legally they are tied to a particular property, but for my asset allocation purposes mortgages are just plain old debt. For 40+ years I have gravitated to a "Talmud Portfolio" even though I just learned t...
- Sun May 15, 2022 5:10 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Enduring Discomfort
- Replies: 32
- Views: 3568
Re: Enduring Discomfort
In periods of extreme inflation this can be a very poor assumption.
For instance, look at Venezuela from 2018-2021. Did any Venezuelan portfolios survive that time period?
- Sun May 15, 2022 4:10 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Enduring Discomfort
- Replies: 32
- Views: 3568
Re: Enduring Discomfort
The reason is inflation.
8 years of 10% inflation more than doubles the price of everything. Not suddenly, but in a time interval less than 1/3 of most retirement planning periods, the real value of conservative portfolio can be cut in half.
And, there is no guarantee that we will not see higher than 10% inflation.
- Sun May 15, 2022 12:41 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Remove sticker from glass
- Replies: 56
- Views: 5552
- Fri May 13, 2022 8:55 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Stone patio really costs $15K?
- Replies: 78
- Views: 12147
Re: Stone patio really costs $15K?
looks like 15 ft diameter circle; about 700 sq ft? googled "stone patio cost", got "The average cost to install a stone patio ranges from about $3,900 to $15,000 for a 300 square foot area. Regardless of the stone you choose, labor stays right in the $8 to $15 range, mostly depending on where you live. Materials make or break the budget, ranging from $5 to $35 per square foot" since you're more than twice 300 sq ft, at least double those estimates? Then add to run the gas lines and the partial wall at back,plus the actual firepit and its wall. I'd say you're in the ball park. A 15 ft diameter circle has an area of 177 sq. feet. (Pi times radius squared, not diameter) The real problem is that any corner-cutting on instal...
- Fri May 13, 2022 8:06 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Broken fridge
- Replies: 24
- Views: 2031
Re: Broken fridge
Ask the landlord if he would assist you in pressing a claim for the lost food against the repair company.
They are really the ones at fault.
They are really the ones at fault.
- Thu May 05, 2022 1:58 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 36221
- Views: 4652884
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I suspect they believe inflation is going to be a lot more difficult to tame than Powell believes. I am firmly in the "never underestimate inflation" camp.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 1:43 pmWhat I don't get is why the FedWatchers are re-pricing a 75 bps hike in June when Chair Powell just denied it yesterday. They're essentially saying they don't believe him.
- Thu May 05, 2022 12:07 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 36221
- Views: 4652884
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Fri Apr 29, 2022 12:05 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 36221
- Views: 4652884
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
...I know all the armchair central bankers fully believe that inflation was a guarantee from the start and that it was going to persist. I don't believe any of that is true. I absolutely believe they made they best decisions they could with the information they had. And we were right, but we are suffering the pain along with everyone else. I don't consider myself an armchair central banker, but I did minor in economics. Bob Dylan pointed out: "You don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing." I put my money where my mouth was though. Bond holdings are in ultra short term bond funds, and we loaded up on fixed rate 30 year mortgages back when owner occupied rates were 2.5%, and non-owner occupied was 3.25%. ...
- Fri Apr 29, 2022 11:14 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 36221
- Views: 4652884
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
...I know all the armchair central bankers fully believe that inflation was a guarantee from the start and that it was going to persist. I don't believe any of that is true. I absolutely believe they made they best decisions they could with the information they had. And we were right, but we are suffering the pain along with everyone else. I don't consider myself an armchair central banker, but I did minor in economics. Bob Dylan pointed out: "You don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing." I put my money where my mouth was though. Bond holdings are in ultra short term bond funds, and we loaded up on fixed rate 30 year mortgages back when owner occupied rates were 2.5%, and non-owner occupied was 3.25%. ...
- Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:25 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 36221
- Views: 4652884
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Personally, I am seeing more parallels to 1966 than 2018, parallels that can not be mentioned. The only bright point is that things move at the speed of computer and internet today.
- Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:12 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Replies: 36221
- Views: 4652884
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
But in reality one of the morning headlines is that Personal Consumption Expenditures hit a fresh high today. This is touted as the Fed's favorite inflation measure.princetontiger wrote: ↑Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:52 am we are now captive to rates
would be interesting if inflation moderates and doesn't hike as much. feels like 2018 all over again.
We have a long stretch with some pretty evil-tasting financial medicine coming our way...
- Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:40 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: How to keep rodents out of engine compartment?
- Replies: 28
- Views: 2435
Re: How to keep rodents out of engine compartment?
I have had some success with glue traps.
Non-toxic, inexpensive, and can be removed from kids and pets.
Non-toxic, inexpensive, and can be removed from kids and pets.
- Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:56 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Home Safe
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2219
Re: Home Safe
Not sure that installing a home safe takes much skill. Select a location, maneuver it into place and (optionally) bolt it to the floor. If you are putting the safe on a slab, a simple hammer drill will suffice to attach the concrete anchors ( hearing protection, dust mask, vacuum mandatory). If that seems out of your comfort zone, they simply hire a safe company to do the install. That is their stock in trade, so I would not worry excessively about them knowing you have a safe. So does the safe manufacturer / distributer / delivery driver / nosey neighbor, etc. I had a work colleague who had a safe professionally installed. A few months later his house was "professionally" burglarized. Shockingly the intruders knew exactly where ...
- Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:51 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How long to double 2022 forward
- Replies: 26
- Views: 4731
Re: How long to double 2022 forward
... The question is are we really looking at 3-5% nominal returns for the next decade? If so this would set us back significantly from our goal and I find it extremely disheartening to be this pessimistic. Can I reasonably expect our investments to at least double in 10 years? Struggling to be more confident and relaxed in our financial situation despite being in a better position than 1 year ago and looking for some encouragement and thoughts (hopefully positive) on future returns. The problem with accepting the "conventional wisdom" on predictions of future returns is that the track record of people who make these predictions is uniformly miserable. For example look at https://www.mymoneyblog.com/vanguards-10-year-stock-market-...
- Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:58 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
- Replies: 22381
- Views: 2120889
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Even though the 'DAQ is down, S&P is starting a little mini-soar.
It looks like all Netflix really showed was that tech stocks can stumble, but even there, streaming videos is not the entire tech world. Far from it.
It looks like all Netflix really showed was that tech stocks can stumble, but even there, streaming videos is not the entire tech world. Far from it.
- Tue Apr 19, 2022 3:30 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
- Replies: 22381
- Views: 2120889
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Apple TV just won an academy award for one of their originals, just added baseball, and reports are they have NFL football for next season.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 19, 2022 3:25 pmThat's interesting because I thought their gameplan was to create exclusive & high-quality contents so that the users would have to stick with them. I know Amazon Prime has some good stuff, but unaware of other streaming services providing comparable quality of contents elsewhere.
- Tue Apr 19, 2022 3:00 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
- Replies: 22381
- Views: 2120889
- Tue Apr 19, 2022 2:51 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
- Replies: 22381
- Views: 2120889
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It is starting to look like a melt up at the close. Haven't had one of those in ages.
- Tue Apr 19, 2022 9:12 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
- Replies: 22381
- Views: 2120889
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
OK. We are now up by more than 1% for today. Does that count as a soar?
- Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:35 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
- Replies: 22381
- Views: 2120889
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I am seeing a little mini-soar this morning. This beats the stuffing out of a free fall.