Search found 980 matches

by CurlyDave
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any way other than real estate to leverage good income and credit?
Replies: 9
Views: 525

Re: Any way other than real estate to leverage good income and credit?

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:29 am
Sell tradelines.
In other words, let some deadbeat use your good credit to borrow money.

Does not sound like a surefire route to success.
by CurlyDave
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 347
Views: 32263

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

...How much equity do you have? Have you thought about a 1031 into a triple net lease? Possibly a better return with fewer landlord headaches. I haven't done it personally, but it's something I'm looking into for the future when I have more cash. Triple net leases scare the heck out of me. And I am...
by CurlyDave
Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 347
Views: 32263

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

... Even if the numbers look halfway decent, you have to factor in the hassle and risk. As a long term investment you'd be VERY LUCKY if you don't have to deal with evicting a tenant or a tenant grossly mistreating the property (damage can far exceed the deposit). Either can completely wipe out man...
by CurlyDave
Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice — asking for the “gray hair perspective”
Replies: 39
Views: 2401

Re: Career advice — asking for the “gray hair perspective”

If you were to leave can you bring clients with you or will you be subject to a non-compete? I don't know if I would have a non-compete were I to leave. I do know that my firm has a ton of support infrastructure (market data, research, etc.) that would be prohibitively expensive to duplicate indivi...
by CurlyDave
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice — asking for the “gray hair perspective”
Replies: 39
Views: 2401

Re: Career advice — asking for the “gray hair perspective”

Tread water at work for a while until you can secure and protect your intellectual property and shop it around to a new group or start your own. Then leave when you are ready. I don't think this works. The IP belongs to the firm that was signing the paychecks while the idea was conceived. I would p...
by CurlyDave
Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 347
Views: 32263

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Rental properties are a part-time job that could become a full-time job. No thanks. As a retired old geezer, this is what I love about rentals. And, as I got older, I loved it while I was still working. One of the pieces of advice I consistently read is that a very good way to stretch your retireme...
by CurlyDave
Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 347
Views: 32263

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Rental properties are a part-time job that could become a full-time job. No thanks. As a retired old geezer, this is what I love about rentals. And, as I got older, I loved it while I was still working. One of the pieces of advice I consistently read is that a very good way to stretch your retireme...
by CurlyDave
Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (Water Filtration System) Miracle we are all not dead
Replies: 61
Views: 5329

Re: (Water Filtration System) Miracle we are all not dead

I got a water softener at Sears for about $250 and installed it myself. It does take some plumbing ability. (I would get a different brand these days just because of the Sears bankruptcy threat.) I also bought two water filters for about $30 each and installed them myself. 25 micron filter in the fi...
by CurlyDave
Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The impact of Baby Boomers on the Future of U.S. Stocks
Replies: 41
Views: 5175

Re: The impact of Baby Boomers on the Future of U.S. Stocks

Harry Dent was (is) big on demographics and I remember seeing ads where he was predicting that the retirement of the Baby Boomers would lead to the next great depression - for reasons you cited and also because they would be consuming less in their retirement years. Well, the Baby Boomers are now r...
by CurlyDave
Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Techniques For People Approaching Retirement In This Aging Bull Market
Replies: 35
Views: 5202

Re: Investing Techniques For People Approaching Retirement In This Aging Bull Market

...I also heed the advice on stop loss orders... What I have been experimenting with lately is using ETFs and trailing stops instead of a bond position. A trailing stop is a much different kettle of fish than a simple stop loss order. With traditional stop loss orders the only thing I have stopped ...
by CurlyDave
Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market up because of rate cut expectation - why ?
Replies: 21
Views: 2742

Re: Market up because of rate cut expectation - why ?

...Personally I believe the Fed may have taken on an unspoken mandate to support asset prices given how heavily reliant every State's pension infrastructure is on market returns. A 30% decline and plateau would bankrupt about half the States, forcing them to cut pensions and raise taxes, which coul...
by CurlyDave
Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 6512

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

...That's why I would be very wary of highly leveraged rental properties. There are many circles where the thing to do is to buy properties with the least cash possible, but if/when the market goes the wrong way, you can find out the hard way that leverage works in both directions. Personally, I wo...
by CurlyDave
Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New and Better Glidepaths
Replies: 8
Views: 1412

Re: New and Better Glidepaths

Interesting article. So is fully paid for, physically owned, R/E income property more bond like or equity like under these conditions? j :happy I don't think it is either. It is a separate class entirely. And, it doesn't even have to be "fully paid for". DW and I accumulated rentals slowly, making ...
by CurlyDave
Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Spreadsheet or math help needed. [Timing when to buy]
Replies: 9
Views: 1238

Re: Spreadsheet or math help needed.

I'm going to setup a dummy account where I pretend to put money in on the first and don't margin my emergency fund. I should have done that when I started buying the dips. Margining my emergency fund is what may make dip buying work. I just want to see it in black and white. If you are buying some ...
by CurlyDave
Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $1.5M - My investment plan, Your advice/suggestions
Replies: 17
Views: 3969

Re: $1.5M - My investment plan, Your advice/suggestions

SIPC limit is $500k for any one account, but you really should investigate this more. Many brokerage houses have more than just SIPC protection and this can go up to hundreds of millions. At many brokerage houses $1M in combined accounts is sort of a magic number for top tier customer service. I thi...
by CurlyDave
Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DCA on the way out, too? Even towards a conservative AA?
Replies: 13
Views: 918

Re: DCA on the way out, too? Even towards a conservative AA?

The only time I tried to DCA a lump sum in, I came to regret it, since it did less well that if I had just moved it all at once.

Since the market goes up 2/3 of the time a DCA on the way out might make more sense...
by CurlyDave
Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable gains...exchange or let it ride?
Replies: 9
Views: 801

Re: Taxable gains...exchange or let it ride?

...As mentioned, short term losses should be realized immediately. (though with today's 2% move up, it might be too late -- would have been bad if you went from loss to cash, but ok if you moved from one total market basket to another)... Personally, if today's move up produces a gain instead of a ...
by CurlyDave
Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you buy a house without a garage?
Replies: 95
Views: 5907

Re: Would you buy a house without a garage?

For most of my life I had no idea why anyone would waste a perfectly good garage by parking a car in it.

Is it possible to add a detached garage? What is the cost of this vs. the price reductions on the house?
by CurlyDave
Thu May 30, 2019 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 176
Views: 11738

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

...Dave, this is an inappropriate comparison. As I wrote in a follow up post, the 2% inflation target was adopted in 2012 in the US. Here's my detailed post about this:... Even if they are much better at hitting a 2% inflation target than I think they will be, there is no guarantee the target will ...
by CurlyDave
Wed May 29, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: having work done on car before you buy it
Replies: 7
Views: 482

Re: having work done on car before you buy it

If there is any kind of warranty on whatever work you want done on the car, it will be a lot easier to get it honored at home than from a great distance.
by CurlyDave
Wed May 29, 2019 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Blackbird Problem
Replies: 11
Views: 907

Re: Blackbird Problem

http://www.crowbegone.com

I have not tried it, but it might work.
by CurlyDave
Wed May 29, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 176
Views: 11738

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy aims for a 2% inflation over time . It's quite plausible that it will succeed. Canada's central bank has had a 2% inflation target (the midpoint of a 1% to 3% target range) as a cornerstone of its monetary policy since 1991; it has remarkably succeeded to ma...
by CurlyDave
Tue May 28, 2019 2:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tracking down a wasp nest
Replies: 20
Views: 1818

Re: Tracking down a wasp nest

If you can capture one, tie a small piece of brightly colored thread around it and release.

The idea is not to injure the wasp, but to make it easier to see and track.
by CurlyDave
Mon May 27, 2019 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I roll repairs into the mortgage?
Replies: 39
Views: 2225

Re: Should I roll repairs into the mortgage?

I will not be surprised if there are not a few other odds and ends needed once the inspector comes out and I already have a summer full of my own projects so the management company will be doing these repairs. In my experience, one of the sure fire roads to financial ruin is over-reliance on a prop...
by CurlyDave
Mon May 27, 2019 12:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I roll repairs into the mortgage?
Replies: 39
Views: 2225

Re: Should I roll repairs into the mortgage?

Lee_WSP wrote:
Sun May 26, 2019 5:40 pm

...I agree with this analysis for a personal mortgage, but I view rentals as business prepositions.
OK, I'll bite. Educate me on why the analysis is different for a rental, which I agree is a business proposition, than for a personal mortgage.
by CurlyDave
Mon May 27, 2019 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I roll repairs into the mortgage?
Replies: 39
Views: 2225

Re: Should I roll repairs into the mortgage?

I will not be surprised if there are not a few other odds and ends needed once the inspector comes out and I already have a summer full of my own projects so the management company will be doing these repairs. In my experience, one of the sure fire roads to financial ruin is over-reliance on a prop...
by CurlyDave
Sun May 26, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Close to making an offer on a home
Replies: 65
Views: 5203

Re: Close to making an offer on a home

I have lived with long commutes and I have lived with short commutes. You would be amazed by how much more comfortable life is with a short commute. That is worth a lot to me. Stop obsessing over the oil stain. Get a gallon of paint thinner and a big bag of cat litter. Spread cat litter, then pour p...
by CurlyDave
Sat May 25, 2019 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What has changed in new home construction over the years?
Replies: 49
Views: 6073

Re: What has changed in new home construction over the years?

I bought I new home in a subdivision; as we have expansive soil in many areas here, my builder used post-tension slabs. Across the street a year later, another builder built homes with conventional slabs, which are cheaper. If the soil heaves, I know which homes will function better. I have built t...
by CurlyDave
Sat May 25, 2019 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I roll repairs into the mortgage?
Replies: 39
Views: 2225

Re: Should I roll repairs into the mortgage?

I take a lot of flak on this board for my thinking about mortgages, but here goes: 1. With a fixed rate mortgage inflation is your friend. For a lot of reasons, inflation is also the government's friend. Never bet against inflation. 2. If the properties cash flow, your tenants are paying off your mo...
by CurlyDave
Tue May 14, 2019 1:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Feedback on house purchase
Replies: 19
Views: 1800

Re: Feedback on house purchase

I think the OP should go for it. Houses in HCOL areas have been going up for many years. When the kids leave and retirement comes around he can sell the house and move to a lower COL area. If something goes wrong his retirement date gets pushed back a few years, but it is not a disaster. This is exa...
by CurlyDave
Sun May 12, 2019 3:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drill well today or drill well later?
Replies: 26
Views: 2136

Re: Drill well today or drill well later?

Well regulations can change drastically in a short period of time. A friend had to pass on buying a piece of property because it had been divided many years ago, and new well regulations about the setback from property lines for a well made it impossible to drill on that property. How much of your n...
by CurlyDave
Fri May 10, 2019 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Disability: Fibromyalgia
Replies: 31
Views: 3530

Re: Social Security Disability: Fibromyalgia

I helped a friend get SSI. 1. You need a lawyer. 2. Keep a copy of every scrap of paper -- he didn't and SS "lost" his application the first time. 3. 50 is kind of a magic age. Under 50 and the applicant is evaluated for the ability to hold any job, over 50 and the applicant is only evaluated for j...
by CurlyDave
Fri May 10, 2019 1:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Disability: Fibromyalgia
Replies: 31
Views: 3530

Re: Social Security Disability: Fibromyalgia

I helped a friend get SSI. 1. You need a lawyer. 2. Keep a copy of every scrap of paper -- he didn't and SS "lost" his application the first time. 3. 50 is kind of a magic age. Under 50 and the applicant is evaluated for the ability to hold any job, over 50 and the applicant is only evaluated for jo...
by CurlyDave
Wed May 08, 2019 1:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What kind of Replacement A/C would you get ??
Replies: 51
Views: 4761

Re: What kind of Replacement A/C would you get ??

...- For better airflow control, have AC return ducts (in addition to AC supply ducts) in almost every room, not just one central return. +1 I designed our current house and insisted on a return air duct in every room with an inlet air register. It makes a world of difference. You can not force mor...
by CurlyDave
Tue May 07, 2019 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is volatility good or bad?
Replies: 27
Views: 1298

Re: Is volatility good or bad?

Is volatility good or bad? I ask because I think of it as providing opportunity to buy stocks that have been irrationally discounted at lower levels but I don't get the sense this is common view. Volatility is often used as a proxy for risk. In fact, Nobel Prizes have been won for mathematical stud...
by CurlyDave
Sun May 05, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Say you have a pension & lot of cash. With those in mind, does it make sense to have a more aggressive allocation?
Replies: 62
Views: 4326

Re: Say you have a pension & lot of cash. With those in mind, does it make sense to have a more aggressive allocation?

...Is this correct reasoning, or am I extremely wrong? I am firmly in the camp of treating a pension as "phantom bonds" for asset allocation purposes. And, I put my money where my mouth is -- born in 1945 and 95% stocks because DW and I both have pensions and SS. Jack Bogle himself recommended cons...
by CurlyDave
Sun May 05, 2019 1:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large Windfall that we cannot spend for 5 years
Replies: 10
Views: 2546

Re: Large Windfall that we cannot spend for 5 years

1. IF the money is clawed back, will there also be an interest charge? 2. OR, if it is going to be taken back is it a non-recourse type of take back? (In other words, if you keep the money separate from all of your other funds, would the claim be against the residual estate, or could they come after...
by CurlyDave
Fri May 03, 2019 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion
Replies: 55
Views: 6000

Re: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion

I think investing in AMZN, and to some extent AAPL, is BRK wanting to stake out a place in the internet space. I don't think younger investors understand what a game changer the internet has been, and I think it has a long time left to run as a game changer. I was born in 1945, so I spent the early ...
by CurlyDave
Fri May 03, 2019 2:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying Estimated Taxes in Retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 3018

Re: Paying Estimated Taxes in Retirement

The historic CAGR for stocks is ~10.5%. Good luck counting on that going forward. I have been reading articles that express a pessimistic view for a decade. For the past 3 years the CAGR for SPY has been 13.38%, 5 years 10.78%, 10 years 15.83%. I view 10.5% going forward as a conservative estimate....
by CurlyDave
Fri May 03, 2019 2:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying Estimated Taxes in Retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 3018

Re: Paying Estimated Taxes in Retirement

...With the penalty/interest set at 0.5% per month, this is like borrowing at a 6% interest rate in order to invest for 1 year or less. That seems like a questionable choice to me. I don't think that is the correct analysis. While you are right that in any one tax year the time frame is less than o...
by CurlyDave
Thu May 02, 2019 12:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My solar investment experience
Replies: 100
Views: 8705

Re: My solar investment experience

In 2017 I participated in a local program by installing a 7kWp solar system on our roof and now have some results that to share. The answers are: 13,746; 15,298; 385; 84.56 and zero. $13,746 was our net investment for the solar system. 15,298 is the pounds of CO2 emissions NOT emitted. 385 is the n...
by CurlyDave
Sun Apr 28, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relocating Across Country - Vehicle Situation
Replies: 22
Views: 1236

Re: Relocating Across Country - Vehicle Situation

I think the Subaru is a much better car for Seattle than the Mazda.

If you move out of state and keep the lease will MD refund part of the tax just as if you had sold it?
by CurlyDave
Sun Apr 28, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sanity check?
Replies: 11
Views: 1653

Re: Sanity check?

Agreed, if howerver there is a shtf event i would certainly move more of my aa into stocks to take advantage of the discount, but changing my aa now would effect my sleep. We more or less had one in December 2018. What did you do? This is not a criticism of your AA or plan, but a call to really exa...
by CurlyDave
Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distribution Monthly or Yearly
Replies: 16
Views: 1847

Re: Distribution Monthly or Yearly

...Because the stock values could just as easily decline over the course of a year. I think that is overly pessimistic. When we talk about lump sum investing vs. breaking it into increments, the common wisdom is that stock prices increase 2/3 of the time. So it is better to lump sum it in. This wou...
by CurlyDave
Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does this retire-and-build-a-house plan make sense?
Replies: 17
Views: 2415

Re: Does this retire-and-build-a-house plan make sense?

Two other items on the house, either existing or new. 1. Be absolutely certain there is high speed internet available, and 2. be certain that there is good cell phone coverage available. We have friends who bought about a year ago and the people they bought from had cable internet. Pretty fast. BUT,...
by CurlyDave
Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%
Replies: 14
Views: 1358

Re: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%

...As for adjusting one's stock allocation based on global GDP forecasts, this seems unwise for two reasons: 1) GDP forecasts are notoriously inaccurate, as even year-ahead economic growth is unpredictable, and 2) stock markets are forward looking, so any information you have about GDP growth trend...
by CurlyDave
Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%
Replies: 14
Views: 1358

Re: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%

...There is a loose relationship, but bear in mind that the stock market is considered a " leading indicator " of the economy... so if you're trying to use reported economic growth numbers, that are reports on the past, to predict future stock performance, you're doing it wrong. I am not so certain...
by CurlyDave
Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%
Replies: 14
Views: 1358

Re: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%

...Either way, I don't believe there is anything here to change AA. My question was actually more long-term. Changing AA based on one quarter of GDP is not justified, but when predictions (not even data) are for lower market performance that is a topic of discussion -- why wouldn't a year or more o...
by CurlyDave
Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%
Replies: 14
Views: 1358

1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%

OK, first Quarter GDP growth came in a 3.2%, higher than expectations. And the CEA says there may be some seasonality in the numbers which indicates ~4% might be a better estimate. I have two questions: 1. Is there any established relationship between GDP growth and market performance? 2. Is changin...
by CurlyDave
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Investment (Rental) Apartment Abroad While Living in California
Replies: 10
Views: 952

Re: Buying Investment (Rental) Apartment Abroad While Living in California

I have had good success investing in real estate, but I would never own a property more than 1 hour away by car. All of my properties are less than 20 minutes away right now. This may be one of the reasons for my success.