Search found 1633 matches

by CurlyDave
Tue May 26, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For EF "months", are we including unemployment benefits & stated severance policies? And both parts of a couple?
Replies: 19
Views: 1046

Re: For EF "months", are we including unemployment benefits & stated severance policies? And both parts of a couple?

As I look to improve my sleep factor, which has nothing at all to do with fixed income AA in my retirement accounts that I can't/won't be touching for 20+ years, it falls on the old EF, and "how many months". I've been working on numbers based on both me & my wife instantaneously going to $0. As I ...
by CurlyDave
Tue May 26, 2020 7:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you pull a trigger on a home purchase or continue renting?
Replies: 45
Views: 2926

Re: Would you pull a trigger on a home purchase or continue renting?

If the cost and percentage of my leverage were equal, wouldn’t equities come out ahead? That is a very, very big if . 1. Margin rates are typically higher than mortgage rates. 2. If you margin equities to 80%, even a minor drop in the market will produce a margin call. 80% LTV on a house is conside...
by CurlyDave
Tue May 26, 2020 1:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you pull a trigger on a home purchase or continue renting?
Replies: 45
Views: 2926

Re: Would you pull a trigger on a home purchase or continue renting?

Well, you’ve done half the calculation. But if your house drops 5% you lose 25% of your equity. Funny thing, leverage. But lets be honest about this. The long term trend is up. Even if I only get back inflation, my equity is increasing at 5x inflation. There’s lots of research on this. Broad stock ...
by CurlyDave
Mon May 25, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you pull a trigger on a home purchase or continue renting?
Replies: 45
Views: 2926

Re: Would you pull a trigger on a home purchase or continue renting?

MedSaver wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:27 am
Well, you’ve done half the calculation. But if your house drops 5% you lose 25% of your equity. Funny thing, leverage.
But lets be honest about this. The long term trend is up.

Even if I only get back inflation, my equity is increasing at 5x inflation.
by CurlyDave
Mon May 25, 2020 1:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you pull a trigger on a home purchase or continue renting?
Replies: 45
Views: 2926

Re: Would you pull a trigger on a home purchase or continue renting?

Also, money invested in Real Estate has, in general, done better than money invested in stocks. This can't be true. Sure it can be, and it is. Don't forget, if I start with 20% down I have 5 to 1 leverage on the invested money. There are all the tax advantages over the years, and don't forget the i...
by CurlyDave
Sun May 24, 2020 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you pull a trigger on a home purchase or continue renting?
Replies: 45
Views: 2926

Re: Would you pull a trigger on a home purchase or continue renting?

...I plan to stay here at least 6 months. In the meantime I was going to move all the liquid cash into a HYSA. 1. I don't think HYSAs exist right now. 2. At my age (74) I can look back on 45 years of home ownership in HCOL and VHCOL areas, and tell you that I have never lost money on a home. Also, ...
by CurlyDave
Thu May 14, 2020 1:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash out refi to invest 100k
Replies: 30
Views: 2195

Re: Cash out refi to invest 100k

...what if I refi'd for 30 years, and took the full value out in cash. so about $100,000 and invested all of that into this new covid economy... The odds are with you my friend, the odds are with you. Before I found this board I did exactly the same thing for many years. And I greatly benefitted fr...
by CurlyDave
Thu May 14, 2020 1:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling rental property - Has any used an iBuyer or Virtual Agent?
Replies: 24
Views: 1181

Re: Selling rental property - Has any used a Virtual Agent?

A big question I would ask is "How do you set a price on the property?"

To me, this is much of the value of an agent. If I save 1.5% on fees, but underprice by 5%, I have lost money.
by CurlyDave
Tue May 12, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

S&P futures up 0.42% 5 minutes before the open.

Shaping up to be a good day.
by CurlyDave
Mon May 11, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stinky wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 8:54 am
CurlyDave wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 8:41 am
Any bets on whether NASDAQ goes positive by the end of the day?

My money is on yes.
NASDAQ is down 0.02% as I type, having recovered from a slow start.

I'm with CurlyDave. NASDAQ will close up today.
Up 0.15% right now. Moving faster than I can type...
by CurlyDave
Mon May 11, 2020 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Any bets on whether NASDAQ goes positive by the end of the day?

My money is on yes.
by CurlyDave
Mon May 11, 2020 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Hyperchicken wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 11:43 pm
Retesting the Fibonacci retracement level of 2950!
...
Am I doing this right?
It really depends if it is a risk-adjusted Fibonacci retracement, or just a common garden one.
by CurlyDave
Sun May 10, 2020 12:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Choosing not to correct all billing/financial errors
Replies: 68
Views: 4588

Re: Choosing not to correct all billing/financial errors

Along these lines, I've recently stopped bringing back refundable containers. Into the recycling bin they go. Just not worth my time. In 1970 I decided that recycling was just a plot to get me to stockpile garbage. My opinion has not changed, and it is just now coming out that much, if not most, of...
by CurlyDave
Sun May 10, 2020 12:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to negotiate severance if laid off?
Replies: 75
Views: 6081

Re: How to negotiate severance if laid off?

When I worked at megacorp they would sometimes offer buyouts if someone were willing to volunteer for a layoff. Never millions, but adding a few weeks of extra severance and a few extra years credited to pension payments. If this didn't get enough volunteers, the severance packages they offered to n...
by CurlyDave
Sat May 09, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Real estate crowdfunding as alternate investment
Replies: 17
Views: 1120

Re: Real estate crowdfunding as alternate investment

I've been investing in PeerStreet for over 2 years; currently have 56 active loans and 33 paid-off loans. My thoughts: (1) It's only available to accredited investors (so, hopefully educated on the risks involved and able to take a loss in stride) (2) It's not for the feint of heart. Some borrowers...
by CurlyDave
Sat May 09, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: College age kid wrecked his car...
Replies: 113
Views: 6042

Re: College age kid wrecked his car...

1. Lots of ways to deal with the car.

2. TLH all of the VTI. Buy something similar enough that you do not have to be out of the market for more than a few minutes. Maybe VOO?

3. Say "Thank you Mr. Deer."
by CurlyDave
Fri May 08, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

...Millions more people have filed claims for unemployment benefits since the monthly data was collected in mid-April . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/08/business/economy/april-jobs-report.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage Somehow I think that will be offset by all tho...
by CurlyDave
Fri May 08, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well, the real numbers are out and Unemployment is "only" 14.7%.

Not a great number, but a long way from 20+%. And for fans of larger numbers, labor underutilization went from 8.7% to 22.8%.

And stocks are soaring again on the news.
by CurlyDave
Fri May 08, 2020 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

...It's just not a good look to be profiting at a time when others are suffering... In 2019 there were just under 800k personal bankruptcy filings in the US. https://nypost.com/2019/08/11/bankruptcy-filings-rising-across-the-country-and-it-could-get-worse/ SPY and VOO were up 31+% in 2019. (My favo...
by CurlyDave
Thu May 07, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

... It's sad, but Covid-19 has had positive effects on certain companies (obvious example Zoom) that possibly outweigh the many negatives. I am not certain that it is sad. It is accelerated "creative destruction", which is the lifeblood of capitalism. I am certain that Henry Ford caused the unemplo...
by CurlyDave
Thu May 07, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

A lot of businesses are going bankrupt. Will people be quickly returning to those jobs too? And what about the restaurants that can only open at half capacity? And the airplanes flying only 1/3 full for the foreseeable future? If you really think the market level is unsustainable, I will again poin...
by CurlyDave
Thu May 07, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

...Are you saying that the (current) 33 million people (we only know about those who have filed for unemployment) will quickly find another job? I think the market is anticipating a lot of "creative destruction" and that most of those unemployed now will either find other jobs or go back to the one...
by CurlyDave
Wed May 06, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

...Another good day for BHs to show 5/6 figure gains. Do I include the cents in those 6 figure gains? :D :D Actually, the Curly Family portfolio is within striking distance of a new all-time high. And, we have made a couple of monthly withdrawals since the last time we were there. Mr. Market has in...
by CurlyDave
Wed May 06, 2020 1:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Title insurance policy
Replies: 17
Views: 899

Re: Title insurance policy

The lender is smart enough to protect their interest in the property with a lender's title insurance policy. Maybe you should be at least as smart as they are. Note that they are also smart enough to make someone else pay for the policy... You pay for it (and everything else) one way or another. Wh...
by CurlyDave
Wed May 06, 2020 12:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Title insurance policy
Replies: 17
Views: 899

Re: Title insurance policy

You can skip the owner's title insurance as long as you don't mind losing everything you have paid for the property due to a defect in the chain of title that allows someone else to sell the property out from underneath you. It depends on how large a role the equity in the home will play in your fi...
by CurlyDave
Tue May 05, 2020 11:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Refrigerator: Problems? Solutions?
Replies: 18
Views: 1751

Re: New Refrigerator: Problems? Solutions?

Bought a new GE, bottom freezer with French Door refrigerator section. I'd appreciate any learned insights you might provide: Question 1: I placed two thermometers in each compartment, and the readings are pretty consistent between thermometers per compartment. But, the readings suggest that the th...
by CurlyDave
Tue May 05, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Up, up and away! I bet a lot of BHs here made 5/6 figures based on today's rise so far. I'm sure that a lot have made five figures today already. But you would need almost $6 million just in stocks to have seen a six figure gain today. I don't think that many here have that much in stocks. Maybe I'...
by CurlyDave
Tue May 05, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

MisterMister wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 10:49 am
InvestingGeek wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 10:30 am
Up, up and away! I bet a lot of BHs here made 5/6 figures based on today's rise so far.
Meh. Last Wednesday the market went up 2.7%. The next two days it dropped 3.7%.
SPY did. QQQ did a lot better.
by CurlyDave
Tue May 05, 2020 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well, soaring again today.

I don't know what is happening but I am hoping for more of it.
by CurlyDave
Sun May 03, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16054

Re: American exceptionalism

Agree. The U.S. started out with a large geographic distance from Europe. Hard to wage war from afar and communication time in weeks/months. Of course the counter example is that the Europeans were quite successful in waging war against the Native Americans... Good counter example. Although wasn't ...
by CurlyDave
Sun May 03, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16054

Re: American exceptionalism

anon_investor wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 1:48 pm

...So buy VGT?
Not a whole lot different than QQQ, my favorite.
by CurlyDave
Sun May 03, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16054

Re: American exceptionalism

Dottie57 wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 10:35 am

Agree. The U.S. started out with a large geographic distance from Europe. Hard to wage war from afar and communication time in weeks/months.
Of course the counter example is that the Europeans were quite successful in waging war against the Native Americans...
by CurlyDave
Sun May 03, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Neighbor’s contractor wants to access our property
Replies: 158
Views: 16231

Re: Neighbor’s contractor wants to access our property

I think most people are looking at this the wrong way. The contractor obviously wants access through your property for some reason. This gives you the potential to control and mitigate a lot of annoyances during the construction process. 1. Construction workers like to start at very early hours -- d...
by CurlyDave
Fri May 01, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Front load washing machine recommendations
Replies: 98
Views: 4658

Re: Front load washing machine recommendations

Another vote for LG from Costco. I think ours is a 3570. It has lasted at least 5 years with no problems and no mold -- we do leave the door open, but don't wipe anything out. Probably fits right into your $700 budget. The only problem with ours is that the outside piece of dark colored transparent ...
by CurlyDave
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Our company just closed our regional office permanently
Replies: 35
Views: 5397

Re: Our company just closed our regional office permanently

...I've thought this could be very disruptive for employment over the long run. If the work can be done remotely, what's to say it can't be offshored to a cheaper labor force in another country at a favorable exchange rate?... One issue that will keep jobs in the US is simply language. It is more d...
by CurlyDave
Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12662

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

Flashes1 wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:27 pm
...It sounds like somebody might be sitting on a pile of cash trying to time when to put it in equities...
The Fed just said it will target 0%.

If anyone wants a higher return, equities are where its at.
by CurlyDave
Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Payoff investment property => more /less risk tolerance
Replies: 5
Views: 432

Re: Payoff investment property => more /less risk tolerance

Mortgage interest is a business expense for a rental. Completely deductible from the first dollar to the last, no SALT limits.
by CurlyDave
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does an active fund return converge to the market return?
Replies: 31
Views: 1022

Re: Does an active fund return converge to the market return?

The arithmetic average will converge to the market return, before expenses. But because active funds usually have lower diversification, they have higher volatility which results in them under performing most of the time (lower geometric average). Interesting. Thanks. What about stock weights, corr...
by CurlyDave
Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AAPL MSFT GOOG AMZN ???
Replies: 85
Views: 6474

Re: AAPL MSFT GOOG AMZN ???

...My feeling is those four stocks are at the forefront of the changing economy and one will always be a stand out. This year it was AMZN, the year before Apple and the year before Microsoft. Like four horses Among five or six in the lead. 1. I think you need to look up the history of the Dow-Jones...
by CurlyDave
Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AAPL MSFT GOOG AMZN ???
Replies: 85
Views: 6474

Re: AAPL MSFT GOOG AMZN ???

drk wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:30 pm
Consider this: the people on this board who work at those companies hold total market funds. What do you know that they don't?
Not really a good comparison. If your job and your investments are all tied up in one company that is very over concentrated.
by CurlyDave
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Carrying a big long mortgage
Replies: 92
Views: 6028

Re: Carrying a big long mortgage

abuss368 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:04 am

...Going into retirement with a mortgage increases sequence of returns risk because of leverage. The good times can be nice but the bad times much worse.
I have difficulty imagining 30 years of bad times.
by CurlyDave
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5642
Views: 483124

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The dead cat is not bouncing -- it was shot from a cannon.
by CurlyDave
Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why am I even saving for retirement?
Replies: 223
Views: 19837

Re: Why am I even saving for retirement?

One of these has the unfortunate tendency to plummet 30-50% every decade or so. The other is the "third rail of American politics". If I were an outside observer it's obvious which one I would bet on. But there is no need to only bet on one or the other. For a long time even the SS Administration t...
by CurlyDave
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why am I even saving for retirement?
Replies: 223
Views: 19837

Re: Why am I even saving for retirement?

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:03 pm
Just ran my wife's and my numbers through https://ssa.tools/...

...So why should we save anything more?
There is an old proverb about not putting all of your eggs in one basket.
by CurlyDave
Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to approach buying a home and retirement savings
Replies: 35
Views: 1551

Re: How to approach buying a home and retirement savings

I should add that my home value was just appraised and it’s worth 45k more than what I payed for. Also the home was a previous rental before. The rent was more than my mortgage now There is a lot of negativity toward real estate on this board, and you are seeing it. DW and I are now retired and hav...
by CurlyDave
Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Anyone found] amazing shopping deals now?
Replies: 30
Views: 3914

Re: Amazing shopping deals now

For a lot of things on Amazon delivery times have increased to very unreasonable levels. I used to be able to get a lot of building maintenance items, HVAC parts, etc from them. No longer. And certainly no discounts. In fact the only way to get a reasonable delivery on some items is to go up to the ...
by CurlyDave
Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Finding a contractor
Replies: 10
Views: 811

Re: Finding a contractor

Handyman? Jack of All Trades? Skilled carpenter? State licensed and Insured Remodeling Renovation Contractor? Licensed Insured General Contractor? Depends on the scope of work and project valuation. Get quotes from each of the insurance company recommendations is best as they will work together. So...
by CurlyDave
Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does ["falling at an annualized rate of 40%..."] mean?
Replies: 14
Views: 1335

Re: What does this sentence mean?

Or maybe they see it falling by 10% vs. 1Q20, or 2Q19, or something else, because 40% = 4 * 10%, etc. The short version is "it won't be good." Actually the short version is "J.P. Morgan thinks it won't be good." Now, as to the quality of their thinking, I seem to remember a bailout for J.P. Morgan ...
by CurlyDave
Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery
Replies: 55
Views: 3923

Re: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery

Part of the reason it’s low is because there’s no way to profit from it (since everyone knows it’ll be higher in the future, it would have been bid up if there was a way to do it). Unless you own an oil storage tank or some other place to take physical delivery and store it. I was literally just la...
by CurlyDave
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Covid19 resistant job
Replies: 154
Views: 9612

Re: Best Covid19 resistant job

...I figured healthcare would be safe, but since a lot of healthcare makes money off nonessential medical treatment, they are also hurting. I keep seeing stories about hospitals laying people off. :( ... I was amazed to discover the definition of non-essential medical treatments. I had cancer surge...