Search found 1303 matches

by CurlyDave
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

OK, you pick the hypothetical allocation then. 1. I was not looking for a global optimum, I was only pointing out the condition necessary for an early claim to be more beneficial than a delayed claim. 2. If you want a hypothetical, how about this one. The dates are not cherry picked -- they are cho...
by CurlyDave
Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

Imagine a person who: 1) Has a portfolio that is 60% stocks, 40% TIPS, and 2) Is currently planning on taking Social Security at their FRA. And let's also grant without argument, for the sake of making this point, that stocks have an expected real return of 7%... This will not get you the real comb...
by CurlyDave
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

Sure. That's somewhat uncommon though, because it implies that you're already 100% stocks in the portfolio. (This is what Grabiner was getting at above.) One in 10 participants have taken an extreme position, holding either 100% in equities (6% of participants) or no equities (3% of participants). ...
by CurlyDave
Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

Additionally - I would never model the difference by comparing the early SS with stock returns unless maybe my target AA was 100% stocks. That would certainly be comparing apples to oranges - you could also just move more money to stocks and still delay SS with a superior result.. My actual AA was ...
by CurlyDave
Sun Nov 10, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 101
Views: 5978

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

Gold prospecting.

Most prospectors are complete cheapskates. Get a good metal detector, and you will be far ahead of them.
by CurlyDave
Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

I'm not sure that depletion of the SS trust fund will impact the decision at all under current law because everyone's benefits, regardless of when they started claiming benefits, would be reduced by the same amount, about 21% IIRC based on the SSA's current estimates. Even if there is a 21% across ...
by CurlyDave
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

Based on current law and SS Trustees Reports, my strategy has the greatest expected value for me. If there are future changes in the law, I will fight back as best I can. Beats the heck out of spending down my portfolio and counting on the tender mercies of SS for my future. Interesting - based upo...
by CurlyDave
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

You may be overestimating the degree of control over your own money. The government can change taxes and rules on retirement account withdrawals, and sales taxes, just as they can change the taxation and benefits of social security receipts. You don't know if you've won the game until you've actual...
by CurlyDave
Sat Nov 09, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids
Replies: 174
Views: 12787

Re: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids

I want to become the favorite ancestor of all my descendants.
by CurlyDave
Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Was I ripped off at the car dealership?
Replies: 73
Views: 6651

Re: Was I ripped off at the car dealership?

You didn’t say what kind of Ford you had but I found this on the net. https://repairpal.com/estimator/ford/f-150/oil-pan-reseal-cost The average cost for a Ford F-150 oil pan gasket replacement is between $572 and $685. Labor costs are estimated between $325 and $411 while parts are priced between ...
by CurlyDave
Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seller's agent not letting us use a buyer's agent
Replies: 122
Views: 10443

Re: Seller's agent not letting us use a buyer's agent

...Is it good practice to use the same agent as the seller? Wouldn't there be a conflict of interest? I have bought many properties using the same agent as the seller. When I was accumulating real estate I would seek out that situation and negotiate a 1% overall reduction in commission, which lower...
by CurlyDave
Sat Nov 09, 2019 6:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell equities to pay down mortgage
Replies: 22
Views: 1911

Re: Sell equities to pay down mortgage

My idea all along, over the last few years, up until I posted this thread, was: -Pay no additional principal on the mortgage and instead invest in taxable. -In 10 or 20 years or whenever, when the market is presumably higher than it is today, I will have the option of locking in equity gains to pay...
by CurlyDave
Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation for my 30 yr old daughter
Replies: 13
Views: 944

Re: Asset Allocation for my 30 yr old daughter

My kids are younger than your D, but I told them to decide on US/international split and stay with it forever, and not to worry about bonds until they get to their 40s. I don't see the point of owning bonds until later in life if you have high risk tolerance, but I do realize on this board people l...
by CurlyDave
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is selling trees for lumber Immoral?
Replies: 33
Views: 2656

Re: Is selling trees for lumber Immoral?

What is immoral is not maintaining the forest at all, and allowing the trees to grow old, die and rot. Get someone who works for the state to "cruise" your land (timber cruiser is a legitimate occupation) and go from there. If you have been contacted by a private timber cutter, you have almost certa...
by CurlyDave
Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

"I have both calculated the tax consequences and even paid them. Essentially I am in a tax bracket where 85% of my SS is taxable as ordinary income." How severely did your claiming early affect Roth conversions and those taxes? Our income is too high to make Roth contributions both with and without...
by CurlyDave
Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

Perhaps you have calculated the additional tax ramifications of a few of the more likely outcomes for your specific situation and it still works well for you ….but that is not the case with other folk's differing parameters. I have both calculated the tax consequences and even paid them. Essentiall...
by CurlyDave
Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

...In fact, the return is generally far superior to any risk-adjusted returns that can be achieved over comparable time periods by the available alternatives, whether investing in risk-free bonds, growth equities, or buying a commercially available annuity... The problem here is that every time I s...
by CurlyDave
Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

...In fact, the return is generally far superior to any risk-adjusted returns that can be achieved over comparable time periods by the available alternatives, whether investing in risk-free bonds, growth equities, or buying a commercially available annuity... The problem here is that every time I s...
by CurlyDave
Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

Sure. That's somewhat uncommon though, because it implies that you're already 100% stocks in the portfolio. (This is what Grabiner was getting at above.) I read Grabiner's comments. While he has certainly made a reasonable assertion that 100% stocks is unusual, I think it falls short of a proof of ...
by CurlyDave
Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

I understand now. So you are "wresting control back" by hurrying to collect and spend some money as early as possible at the expense of future benefits, before the across-the-board cuts kick in (at which point your benefits will be cut the same as others'). Okay. We can agree to disagree if that is...
by CurlyDave
Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

...If your overall financial picture is already appropriate for your risk level, then the appropriate rate of return to use for NPV analysis or breakeven analysis is the rate of return from something roughly as risky as Social Security. While that sounds about right, that little word "if" is crucia...
by CurlyDave
Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

And, the elephant in the room few are talking about is the depletion of the SS Trust Fund -- this is not speculation the SS Trustees report on it every year. If someone is 62 today, depletion and its uncertainties will happen well before they reach breakeven. IMHO, the risks here make SORR about as...
by CurlyDave
Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1903
Views: 198378

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Breaking - US reportedly going to drop existing Chinese tariffs. Futures are up sharply from earlier. Happy for this, but it feels like we are merely getting back the money we lost when the tariffs were announced. I don't know about you, but my portfolio is one or two % below an all-time high. And ...
by CurlyDave
Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1903
Views: 198378

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

delete
by CurlyDave
Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1903
Views: 198378

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

So what is the S&P 500 up so far this year? I calculated that the SPY ETF is up 22.7% and with dividends that's probably over 24% so far for the year. Not bad. Plus, it looks like the market is set to asplode again today. I wouldn't mind a little increase today -- I have to liquidate enough for pro...
by CurlyDave
Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

Yes, the Motley Fool article is right, as far as it goes. This same result came out of my own personal modelling, and it surprised me. I posted on a Kitces blog and he was kind enough to respond to me to both confirm the math and point out the several other issues at play (all of which have been me...
by CurlyDave
Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1903
Views: 198378

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

There is a direct relationship between pork prices and the trade war between the US and China. One of the factors boosting the market recently has been the lack of escalation of that war, and various promising news on negotiations. With three rate cuts in a year, the economy has been pumped as far ...
by CurlyDave
Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Law firm wants 40% PLUS expenses
Replies: 7
Views: 1421

Re: Law firm wants 40% PLUS expenses

I am familiar with two cases, one in CA, one in OR taken on a contingency basis. The OR one involved personal injury, the CA one did not. In both of them, expenses were in addition to the contingency fee. With a large number of plaintiffs, at least some of the expenses should be shared which will re...
by CurlyDave
Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much money is really needed in retirement?
Replies: 74
Views: 9146

Re: How much money is really needed in retirement?

... I try to teach this but nobody listens... My experience also. Over the years there have been dozens of people I have tried to teach. Anyone can become a millionaire if they are willing to work and save. But once they realize it will take decades to get rich, they all lose interest. Everyone wan...
by CurlyDave
Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1903
Views: 198378

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

There is a direct relationship between pork prices and the trade war between the US and China. One of the factors boosting the market recently has been the lack of escalation of that war, and various promising news on negotiations. With three rate cuts in a year, the economy has been pumped as far ...
by CurlyDave
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you consider pensions as part of your overall asset allocation?
Replies: 67
Views: 5046

Re: Do you consider pensions as part of your overall asset allocation?

...This method works, but only as long as you are alive (when you die, the phantom bond disappears, or at least partially, based on survivors). So for those who want an AA that includes estate planning, it might not be so useful... You are right about the negative effects of dying. :mrgreen: DW und...
by CurlyDave
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you consider pensions as part of your overall asset allocation?
Replies: 67
Views: 5046

Re: Do you consider pensions as part of your overall asset allocation?

...Now what? If you didn't compute the "phantom bond" value, but just looked at your income streams and investment portfolio, exactly what would you do differently? You need 50k from the portfolio. How does the 1M "phantom bond" change how you pick the AA?... Here is how it is different. If I do no...
by CurlyDave
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1903
Views: 198378

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

...And then the market more than doubled over the next 3 years, and then crashed 40%. It never actually got as low as it was in 1996, so even with valuations the highest they had been since the Great Depression, and with the Fed chairman himself claiming "irrational exuberance", 1996 was still a go...
by CurlyDave
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1903
Views: 198378

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

whodidntante wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:58 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:53 pm

I'm again making too much money; that makes me nervous. :shock:

Has the exuberance become irrational? I haven't been paying attention.
Last time Greenspan said "irrational exuberance" didn't it take a couple of years to kill the goose that was laying golden eggs?
by CurlyDave
Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you consider pensions as part of your overall asset allocation?
Replies: 67
Views: 5046

Re: Do you consider pensions as part of your overall asset allocation?

Even though the vast majority here do not count pensions as part of their AA, I think this is wrong. I capitalize my pension and SS, and DW's and then multiply by 20 to 25 to get a "phantom bond" value. If I did not do this my AA would be hopelessly conservative. Now I am familiar with the arguments...
by CurlyDave
Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much money is really needed in retirement?
Replies: 74
Views: 9146

Re: How much money is really needed in retirement?

While some people have data on expenses for decades, I did not have that. What I did have was I knew our salaries, and I knew our savings rate. As a very good estimate of expenses, the difference between salaries and savings rate is current expenses. Sure, there are going to be adjustments for taxes...
by CurlyDave
Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does leasing make sense in this case?
Replies: 45
Views: 2722

Re: Does leasing make sense in this case?

If you are not certain of how long you want to keep a car, a lease can make sense for other reasons. The only time we leased a car, it was because of of a heavily advertised promotional rate. But, we got a lemon. Less than a year into the lease the car developed a rear main seal leak which caused oi...
by CurlyDave
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: aapl stock, trailing stop, wwyd?
Replies: 10
Views: 1157

Re: aapl stock, trailing stop, wwyd?

... 5 or 6 might be too tight IMO. Looking at recent action. FWIW ive never done a trailing stop before... If you are going to play with fun money, and I do, you need to expand your horizons on different investing strategies. The biggest thing I can recommend is to start reading Investor's Business...
by CurlyDave
Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: aapl stock, trailing stop, wwyd?
Replies: 10
Views: 1157

Re: aapl stock, trailing stop, wwyd?

Fun money in aapl is up 21% from avg price paid. ~210/ share. Where would you set a trailing stop. My thoughts are 10% below 255. TIA.. When I do trailing stops it is usually in the 5% to 6% range. I have some AAPL, but my cost basis is 5/share. I am going to ride it for a while longer without any ...
by CurlyDave
Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Reduce oil/coal investments seeing as they are doomed
Replies: 16
Views: 1455

Re: Reduce oil/coal investments seeing as they are doomed

... But at the same time I can see a political and economic future that is less reliant on coal and oil. Natural gas is a possible transition fuel in the near to long term... 1. Are you an engineer? Do you really know what you are saying, or are you repeating the promises of politicians? There is a...
by CurlyDave
Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where can I find iphone deals/discounts?
Replies: 22
Views: 2230

Re: Where can I find iphone deals/discounts?

Although not "new", Apple sometimes carries refurbished. Right now, they are only carrying X's, not XI's. I have bought a refurbished iPad with no problems. RM I know with computers, If I have AppleCare and they need to repair my computer they will give me a loaner while they do the repair. When th...
by CurlyDave
Fri Nov 01, 2019 4:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has anyone issued a private mortgage?
Replies: 15
Views: 1808

Re: Has anyone issued a private mortgage?

I'm the trustee in charge of selling the home of a relative who died earlier this year... I'd like to replace the commercial mortgage & HELOC with my funds to cut the carrying cost by ~2/3, but make sure my interest is secured... As much as this sounds sensible, I think it is a bad idea. 1. you are...
by CurlyDave
Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Climate change and the muni bond market
Replies: 11
Views: 1072

Re: Climate change and the muni bond market

Also, regardless of one’s opinion about the role of climate change, the facts show that billion-dollar weather and climate events are occurring at an increasing rate: According to NOAA, the 1980-2018 annual average was 6.3 events (adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index, or CPI), w...
by CurlyDave
Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: APC power backup for extended outages
Replies: 29
Views: 1325

Re: APC power backup for extended outages

...Running a generator indoors would be like running your car indoors, except the generator doesn't have the emissions scrubbing equipment your car does so it would be even worse. While the exhaust is the first thing to kill you if you run your generator indoors, don't think that you can just route...
by CurlyDave
Wed Oct 30, 2019 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Low water pressure/flow in house
Replies: 52
Views: 2720

Re: Low water pressure/flow in house

As a few of the others noted, the problem is upstream of your pressure measurement, not downstream. There is a restriction somewhere on the 1” feed or there is an overall city water pressure issue. My guess is the former. Do verify that your shower heads push about 2 gpm. If it’s way more (say 5 gp...
by CurlyDave
Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: bipolar/alcoholic/broke/jail time - how to move forward financially?
Replies: 37
Views: 4496

Re: bipolar/alcoholic/broke/jail time - how to move forward financially?

Its never too late to get better. Go to AA meetings. Get sober. Treatment....even outpatient. He needs to make his recovery the priority, and everything else will fall into place. IMHO.... +1000 +1 more. AA will help with the alcoholism, if he wants to go. But many will not go. AA will also be good...
by CurlyDave
Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone have an issue with Corelle plates?
Replies: 38
Views: 3592

Re: Anyone have an issue with Corelle plates?

You do know that the manufacturing processes for new and old Corelle dinnerware are completely different? The same is true of Corningware and Pyrex. It is not heavily advertised, but in the US, Pyrex is not a specific composition of glass, but merely a trademark for glass items which are designed t...
by CurlyDave
Mon Oct 28, 2019 10:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance or Recast
Replies: 3
Views: 335

Re: Refinance or Recast

I would let your current loan "season" for a while, maybe even a year or two.

At 5 months in this is about 1.5% of the loan life. A lot can happen in a few years, and your life goals can change. A constant stream of refinances can eat up a lot of capital.
by CurlyDave
Mon Oct 28, 2019 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?
Replies: 21
Views: 1937

Re: The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?

Control of technology is more critical than ever for growth. And when was the last time anti-trust laws were enforced? Ask Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, etc. I am not certain that there is as much anti-trust there as you think. Google might have a dominant position in search, and Facebook might ...
by CurlyDave
Mon Oct 28, 2019 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?
Replies: 21
Views: 1937

Re: The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?

...Also, in the 90s things changed with the networked desktop PC. Communication became clearer, Diseconomies of scale either vanished or were vastly pushed upwards. The result is that the natural size of a company his increased. I think the networked PC (and I am an Apple fan, so I use PC generical...