Search found 951 matches

by CurlyDave
Tue May 14, 2019 1:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Feedback on house purchase
Replies: 19
Views: 1789

Re: Feedback on house purchase

I think the OP should go for it. Houses in HCOL areas have been going up for many years. When the kids leave and retirement comes around he can sell the house and move to a lower COL area. If something goes wrong his retirement date gets pushed back a few years, but it is not a disaster. This is exa...
by CurlyDave
Sun May 12, 2019 3:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drill well today or drill well later?
Replies: 26
Views: 2122

Re: Drill well today or drill well later?

Well regulations can change drastically in a short period of time. A friend had to pass on buying a piece of property because it had been divided many years ago, and new well regulations about the setback from property lines for a well made it impossible to drill on that property. How much of your n...
by CurlyDave
Fri May 10, 2019 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Disability: Fibromyalgia
Replies: 31
Views: 3446

Re: Social Security Disability: Fibromyalgia

I helped a friend get SSI. 1. You need a lawyer. 2. Keep a copy of every scrap of paper -- he didn't and SS "lost" his application the first time. 3. 50 is kind of a magic age. Under 50 and the applicant is evaluated for the ability to hold any job, over 50 and the applicant is only evaluated for j...
by CurlyDave
Fri May 10, 2019 1:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Disability: Fibromyalgia
Replies: 31
Views: 3446

Re: Social Security Disability: Fibromyalgia

I helped a friend get SSI. 1. You need a lawyer. 2. Keep a copy of every scrap of paper -- he didn't and SS "lost" his application the first time. 3. 50 is kind of a magic age. Under 50 and the applicant is evaluated for the ability to hold any job, over 50 and the applicant is only evaluated for jo...
by CurlyDave
Wed May 08, 2019 1:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What kind of Replacement A/C would you get ??
Replies: 51
Views: 4637

Re: What kind of Replacement A/C would you get ??

...- For better airflow control, have AC return ducts (in addition to AC supply ducts) in almost every room, not just one central return. +1 I designed our current house and insisted on a return air duct in every room with an inlet air register. It makes a world of difference. You can not force mor...
by CurlyDave
Tue May 07, 2019 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is volatility good or bad?
Replies: 27
Views: 1266

Re: Is volatility good or bad?

Is volatility good or bad? I ask because I think of it as providing opportunity to buy stocks that have been irrationally discounted at lower levels but I don't get the sense this is common view. Volatility is often used as a proxy for risk. In fact, Nobel Prizes have been won for mathematical stud...
by CurlyDave
Sun May 05, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Say you have a pension & lot of cash. With those in mind, does it make sense to have a more aggressive allocation?
Replies: 62
Views: 4188

Re: Say you have a pension & lot of cash. With those in mind, does it make sense to have a more aggressive allocation?

...Is this correct reasoning, or am I extremely wrong? I am firmly in the camp of treating a pension as "phantom bonds" for asset allocation purposes. And, I put my money where my mouth is -- born in 1945 and 95% stocks because DW and I both have pensions and SS. Jack Bogle himself recommended cons...
by CurlyDave
Sun May 05, 2019 1:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large Windfall that we cannot spend for 5 years
Replies: 10
Views: 2514

Re: Large Windfall that we cannot spend for 5 years

1. IF the money is clawed back, will there also be an interest charge? 2. OR, if it is going to be taken back is it a non-recourse type of take back? (In other words, if you keep the money separate from all of your other funds, would the claim be against the residual estate, or could they come after...
by CurlyDave
Fri May 03, 2019 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion
Replies: 55
Views: 5783

Re: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion

I think investing in AMZN, and to some extent AAPL, is BRK wanting to stake out a place in the internet space. I don't think younger investors understand what a game changer the internet has been, and I think it has a long time left to run as a game changer. I was born in 1945, so I spent the early ...
by CurlyDave
Fri May 03, 2019 2:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying Estimated Taxes in Retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 2931

Re: Paying Estimated Taxes in Retirement

The historic CAGR for stocks is ~10.5%. Good luck counting on that going forward. I have been reading articles that express a pessimistic view for a decade. For the past 3 years the CAGR for SPY has been 13.38%, 5 years 10.78%, 10 years 15.83%. I view 10.5% going forward as a conservative estimate....
by CurlyDave
Fri May 03, 2019 2:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying Estimated Taxes in Retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 2931

Re: Paying Estimated Taxes in Retirement

...With the penalty/interest set at 0.5% per month, this is like borrowing at a 6% interest rate in order to invest for 1 year or less. That seems like a questionable choice to me. I don't think that is the correct analysis. While you are right that in any one tax year the time frame is less than o...
by CurlyDave
Thu May 02, 2019 12:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My solar investment experience
Replies: 100
Views: 8405

Re: My solar investment experience

In 2017 I participated in a local program by installing a 7kWp solar system on our roof and now have some results that to share. The answers are: 13,746; 15,298; 385; 84.56 and zero. $13,746 was our net investment for the solar system. 15,298 is the pounds of CO2 emissions NOT emitted. 385 is the n...
by CurlyDave
Sun Apr 28, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relocating Across Country - Vehicle Situation
Replies: 22
Views: 1211

Re: Relocating Across Country - Vehicle Situation

I think the Subaru is a much better car for Seattle than the Mazda.

If you move out of state and keep the lease will MD refund part of the tax just as if you had sold it?
by CurlyDave
Sun Apr 28, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sanity check?
Replies: 11
Views: 1637

Re: Sanity check?

Agreed, if howerver there is a shtf event i would certainly move more of my aa into stocks to take advantage of the discount, but changing my aa now would effect my sleep. We more or less had one in December 2018. What did you do? This is not a criticism of your AA or plan, but a call to really exa...
by CurlyDave
Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distribution Monthly or Yearly
Replies: 16
Views: 1832

Re: Distribution Monthly or Yearly

...Because the stock values could just as easily decline over the course of a year. I think that is overly pessimistic. When we talk about lump sum investing vs. breaking it into increments, the common wisdom is that stock prices increase 2/3 of the time. So it is better to lump sum it in. This wou...
by CurlyDave
Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does this retire-and-build-a-house plan make sense?
Replies: 17
Views: 2400

Re: Does this retire-and-build-a-house plan make sense?

Two other items on the house, either existing or new. 1. Be absolutely certain there is high speed internet available, and 2. be certain that there is good cell phone coverage available. We have friends who bought about a year ago and the people they bought from had cable internet. Pretty fast. BUT,...
by CurlyDave
Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%
Replies: 14
Views: 1331

Re: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%

...As for adjusting one's stock allocation based on global GDP forecasts, this seems unwise for two reasons: 1) GDP forecasts are notoriously inaccurate, as even year-ahead economic growth is unpredictable, and 2) stock markets are forward looking, so any information you have about GDP growth trend...
by CurlyDave
Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%
Replies: 14
Views: 1331

Re: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%

...There is a loose relationship, but bear in mind that the stock market is considered a " leading indicator " of the economy... so if you're trying to use reported economic growth numbers, that are reports on the past, to predict future stock performance, you're doing it wrong. I am not so certain...
by CurlyDave
Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%
Replies: 14
Views: 1331

Re: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%

...Either way, I don't believe there is anything here to change AA. My question was actually more long-term. Changing AA based on one quarter of GDP is not justified, but when predictions (not even data) are for lower market performance that is a topic of discussion -- why wouldn't a year or more o...
by CurlyDave
Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%
Replies: 14
Views: 1331

1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%

OK, first Quarter GDP growth came in a 3.2%, higher than expectations. And the CEA says there may be some seasonality in the numbers which indicates ~4% might be a better estimate. I have two questions: 1. Is there any established relationship between GDP growth and market performance? 2. Is changin...
by CurlyDave
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Investment (Rental) Apartment Abroad While Living in California
Replies: 10
Views: 942

Re: Buying Investment (Rental) Apartment Abroad While Living in California

I have had good success investing in real estate, but I would never own a property more than 1 hour away by car. All of my properties are less than 20 minutes away right now. This may be one of the reasons for my success.
by CurlyDave
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does this retire-and-build-a-house plan make sense?
Replies: 17
Views: 2400

Re: Does this retire-and-build-a-house plan make sense?

Other people can talk about the financials, I want to talk about the house. Do you plan to stay there indefinitely? If the answer is yes, or even maybe, you should realize that over time you may not be in tip-top physical condition. Here are some of the features I designed into our house, which are ...
by CurlyDave
Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to fix foundation damaged by neighbor's car
Replies: 23
Views: 2427

Re: How to fix foundation damaged by neighbor's car

My house has been damaged and the person that damaged it has proposed that he repair rather than submit an insurance claim. I am concerned that a home inspector or future prospective buyer might consider this an unacceptable fix. Cause of damage: The neighbor backed his car into to the corner of my...
by CurlyDave
Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 902
Views: 86903

Re: "S&P 500 Index closes at record high"

...There's far too much 'resulting' among investors and on this forum (i.e. confusing the success or objectives of a strategy with its results). I have to disagree with this. Strategies were developed by looking at what their results would have been over time (back testing). The ones with good resu...
by CurlyDave
Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who is buying 1-3 year old used Toyotas and Hondas?
Replies: 114
Views: 11772

Re: Who is buying 1-3 year old used Toyotas and Hondas?

Any car that is traded at a year is either a lemon, or the buyer isn't bright. There is no reason to buy a 1 year old vehicle. The only exception might be someone that gets great deals and flips cars, like a family member. We can buy a Ford for a great price, and have to hold it for 6 months. Howev...
by CurlyDave
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 11007

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

If your concern is about the fall in value of long term bonds with rising interest rates, you just have to keep your bond portfolio very short term. This, of course, means even lower bond returns. If you agree that bonds are for safety, not return, then this will meet that goal. Ralph Short enough ...
by CurlyDave
Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Highest priced ETFs
Replies: 22
Views: 1017

Re: Highest priced ETFs

I suppose I don't need you to tell this, but here is a comparison of Total Stock Market fund vs Berkshire A https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2003&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&endDate=04%2F20%2F2019&initialAmount=10000&a...
by CurlyDave
Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Highest priced ETFs
Replies: 22
Views: 1017

Re: Highest priced ETFs

Strictly speaking it is not an ETF, but it is pretty similar. One share of BRK.A will set you back a little over $300k.
by CurlyDave
Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Experience with Edward Jones?
Replies: 76
Views: 7109

Re: Experience with Edward Jones?

This "advisor" has some chutzpah (sp?). Go to his office and tell him what you need done and that you'll wait there while he does it. I promise you, if I was in his office, he'd get it done quickly so I'd leave. I will give you some magic words. Call his office (not him) and ask to speak to the "Co...
by CurlyDave
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what point would you hire someone vs. cut down a tree yourself?
Replies: 88
Views: 3249

Re: At what point would you hire someone vs. cut down a tree yourself?

BTW how far do you all go when it comes to having them prove they are licensed and insured? Would an ad in the phone book be sufficient? I was talking to an aquaintence about this and he said that they often get upset when he has had them verify this by showing their policy card or giving him their...
by CurlyDave
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what point would you hire someone vs. cut down a tree yourself?
Replies: 88
Views: 3249

Re: At what point would you hire someone vs. cut down a tree yourself?

I am assuming that the car was parked on neighboring property, not your own. That is correct for your insurance to deny coverage. Damage on other people's property caused by your trees are their responsibility generally. Seems a little backwards but that is how it is . Nope, the car was parked in m...
by CurlyDave
Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what point would you hire someone vs. cut down a tree yourself?
Replies: 88
Views: 3249

Re: At what point would you hire someone vs. cut down a tree yourself?

I live in the country right now I own 3 ordinary chain saws and a pole saw.

I will not even start one up without putting on the safety equipment, which includes the special chaps that stop the saw if you try to cut your leg.

Do not try this on you own, especially on a ladder.
by CurlyDave
Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what point would you hire someone vs. cut down a tree yourself?
Replies: 88
Views: 3249

Re: At what point would you hire someone vs. cut down a tree yourself?

If it damages something or hurts someone when it falls your insuance company will not pay the damages. I don't believe this is a correct statement. If indeed they deny coverage for trees that are dead, please provide a link or citation. I know for sure when a large branch fell from a tree over my d...
by CurlyDave
Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on non warrantable condo in Bellingham
Replies: 17
Views: 1470

Re: Advice on non warrantable condo in Bellingham

Highly concentrated ownership should be very concerning. I would pass on this one and look for another. Many years ago my father bought a unit in a small condo building for my special needs stepsister to live in while she attended college. The plan was to sell it when she graduated. During the cours...
by CurlyDave
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $1.1 million rental portfolio, but tired of being a landlord
Replies: 87
Views: 10857

Re: $1.1 million rental portfolio, but tired of being a landlord

1031 into a well located triple net lease. This has the advantage of avoiding the cap gains tax and the 25% recapture tax, as well as the PITA residential tenants. The downside is all the eggs are then in one basket, and you may get a PITA commercial tenant. There is a much, much larger risk in a t...
by CurlyDave
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs
Replies: 98
Views: 9288

Re: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs

...You should reduce your exposure to stock when your portfolio is big enough... That is certainly one way to handle a larger portfolio. OTOH, I have a different way which is that I keep my AA as before and allow my withdrawals to increase, essentially a little lifestyle creep. Having reached FI, I...
by CurlyDave
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: House with Permanent Wood Foundation - Would You Buy?
Replies: 13
Views: 1354

Re: House with Permanent Wood Foundation - Would You Buy?

In 1986 pressure treated wood was treated with arsenic and is very durable. I do not remember when the switch was made, but this was outlawed sometime later and pressure treated wood is now treated with copper, which is not as durable, but is less toxic. I would not be worried about toxicity of the ...
by CurlyDave
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Peers Can Change Financial Behavior
Replies: 14
Views: 1783

Re: Larry Swedroe: Peers Can Change Financial Behavior

The closest to a control group I can think of is the county workers in Galveston, TX. The county opted out of Social Security in ~1981 and substituted a "privatized" alternative. Everyone who is a county worker has "skin in the game", and the reports I have read in the past are that their financial...
by CurlyDave
Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with Home Sale profits?
Replies: 28
Views: 2056

Re: What to do with Home Sale profits?

...Are you saying even if the amount is completely invested in stocks, that it still constitutes as a "back up emergency fund"? I would assume so but just want to make sure I understand you completely. Even 100% invested in stocks it is a back up emergency fund. For instance, if I were in some kind...
by CurlyDave
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with Home Sale profits?
Replies: 28
Views: 2056

Re: What to do with Home Sale profits?

... And now onto the rather important decision: lower mortgage or invest? I think it depends on your time horizon. The mortgage is costing 4.75%, and that is a nominal , not real 4.75% since it is paid off in future dollars. Since even the most pessimistic projections have nominal stock returns wel...
by CurlyDave
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $1.1 million rental portfolio, but tired of being a landlord
Replies: 87
Views: 10857

Re: $1.1 million rental portfolio, but tired of being a landlord

I think you should put on your big boy pants and learn to like the real estate. 1. It is going to be difficult to find a 5-10 hour per week part time job. 2. The price appreciation of the buildings should be viewed as very similar to tax-advantaged savings, except that it is even better. Why? Becaus...
by CurlyDave
Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Peers Can Change Financial Behavior
Replies: 14
Views: 1783

Re: Larry Swedroe: Peers Can Change Financial Behavior

The participants in the mentioned Status app are self selected, motivated to have this kind of info. What would be a good control group to focus specifically on the strength of the peer awareness on their behavior? I wonder how their outcomes would compare if they were given advice driven by accept...
by CurlyDave
Sat Apr 13, 2019 1:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What % bonds for early retirement
Replies: 41
Views: 3686

Re: What % bonds for early retirement

what's confusing to me is those target funds probably assume that you have been investing for 10 years longer than I have. So I wasn't sure given the overall shorter investment window if I needed to have a higher percentage of stocks or if because I'm looking to retire sooner I should be more quick...
by CurlyDave
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I semi-retire now?
Replies: 138
Views: 12784

Re: Can I semi-retire now?

I think you need to realize that your children are at their least expensive part of their lives. As they get older costs of everything will go up, up up. Second issue is inflation. I have been retired for 12 years and my personal inflation has outpaced the CPI. You are looking at 40-50 years of reti...
by CurlyDave
Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoiding market risk with nestegg
Replies: 23
Views: 3140

Re: Avoiding market risk with nestegg

By avoiding market risk you are taking on 100% of the inflation risk, whatever that might be.

If that floats your boat, OK. But I would rather have market risk than inflation risk.
by CurlyDave
Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying Estimated Taxes in Retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 2931

Re: Paying Estimated Taxes in Retirement

While doing my last "working year" income taxes yesterday, it occurred to me that I need to keep very careful track that we're making the correct tax payments going forward... I am very careful to never pay them a nickel before the absolute last minute it is due. The estimated tax payments they wou...
by CurlyDave
Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should you use a real estate agent when buying a house? What are your experiences?
Replies: 72
Views: 3860

Re: Should you use a real estate agent when buying a house? What are your experiences?

Thanks to everyone for all that info so quickly. So is it true that agents have access to listings that are not in MLS or online anywhere? That's interesting. Is this common? I don't know how common it is, but I have personally bought property that was not listed on MLS. The agent we were using kne...
by CurlyDave
Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Torment from the IRS
Replies: 16
Views: 2362

Torment from the IRS

My accountant pointed out an IRS rule that he had not seen before. This is from page 19 of the instructions for Form 709: No checks of $100 million or more accepted. The IRS can not accept a single check (including a cashier's check) for amounts of $100,000,000 ($100 million) or more. If you're send...
by CurlyDave
Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High Federal Taxes this year: Tips on reducing taxes, particularly of short-term investments
Replies: 52
Views: 4418

Re: High Federal Taxes this year: Tips on reducing taxes, particularly of short-term investments

The real question here is: "How much return did the OP make on that $17.5k the government lent him last year?"

Was it more or less than the penalties and interest he was charged?

If it was more he should dial up the gratitude and dial down the complaints.
by CurlyDave
Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Baby boomer vicious cycle crash
Replies: 63
Views: 5591

Re: Baby boomer vicious cycle crash

...I believe the bulk of the baby boomers is starting to retire now through the next 5 years. The majority retire from 60-65 right? As much as I think that is right, and as much as I understand the concern about a large cohort putting downward pressure on the market by selling to finance their reti...