Search found 823 matches

by bligh
Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting a 529 question
Replies: 2
Views: 240

Re: Starting a 529 question

Hello, beginner here in process of reading the Boglehead’s Guide book and seaking some advice. I’m 31 and we just welcomed our first daughter this year and I want to open a 529 education savings plan (state of Illinois- Bright Start). My husband has bias from talking to coworkers that think it’s a ...
by bligh
Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

9 pages in. I have to ask. Has a single person changed their position having read or participated in this thread? :shock: :oops:


:sharebeer
by bligh
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

The approach is based on the notion that the market does an effective job of pricing securities. There is absolutely no reason to think that rationale would fail beyond the US borders. Then why have risk adjusted returns for U.S. equities been dramatically higher than international equities for 30 ...
by bligh
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

International market funds just as US market funds are based on market cap and most are dominated by Large Global companies with huge export businesses. A good portion of US earnings come from outside the country and vice versa for other Global companies. To limit your investment to just a select f...
by bligh
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

This! Performance has nothing to do with the Bogleheads strategy. It says, buy and hold your asset allocation and dont mess with it. Be content that you are going to get the market returns. It is highly unlikely that you will be able to beat the market in the long run, so diversify , keep your cost...
by bligh
Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Ex-US didn't just under-perform the US. It performed poorly. Period. The return was poor, particularly when considering the high volatility. It was a bad investment in the long run, not just the short run. Regarding past performance... The whole Boglehead strategy extrapolates from past performance...
by bligh
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

So now one of the arguments for international is that the US dollar might collapse, while the rest of the world hums along....surely no one actually believes that. The Dollar doesn't have to collapse, just weaken. Even Weaken is a misleading term. More like a "less favorable exchange rate". Which f...
by bligh
Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

....restive provinces, territorial disputes, corruption, lack of trust in government, demographic problems, and many others.... All of those things were true about the United States at the dawn of the 20th century and they didn't prevent our stock markets from dominating the world's other markets. ...
by bligh
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Depends on your dating of the Fall of Rome ;-). Note that the Roman Republic lasted a lot shorter time. The Roman Empire was very different - it was deliberately multicultural (making citizens of prominent members of *all* the subject peoples) and latterly Rome was capital in name only - the real c...
by bligh
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I would agree. I am currently ~55% U.S. / 45% Intl and am fine with a floating 50-60% U.S. allocation. I am however, nervous about having most of my assets and cash in the U.S. Something about that seems irresponsible. I am the same. (I keep it between 50/50 and 55/45) ... You and I are fortunate t...
by bligh
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6752
Views: 1468298

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I put in a tiny bit into the market this morning. Nice to see a good RBD just as I had a bit of of cash available. Wish I had more cash I could put in but oh well.
by bligh
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

With a keen knowledge of the concept of "Stay the Course" and "Don't Buy High and Sell Low" and most importantly "Don't Try to Time the Market" I cannot simply put my head in the sand and pretend that the last ten years or more have been anything other then a disappointment for those of us with Int...
by bligh
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: As an American, where are some great places in the world to retire?
Replies: 90
Views: 7685

Re: As an American, where are some great places in the world to retire?

Wife and I are Costa Rican citizens. Spanish is our mother tongue. We're home. No place in the USA. I "need" to be retired in a place where I can live in shorts and sandals all year long. We already live there. Costa Rica. Two other places. Panama and Mexico. Are you fluent in Spanish? IMO, that I ...
by bligh
Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

there appear to be two entrenched camps. one starts with US as the status quo or fundamental portfolio and sees no reason to add or supplement or deworsify into international markets. the other starts with global markets and sees no reason to reduce or ignore or avoid the dozens of other markets to...
by bligh
Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Also, you suggest that something "Fundamentally different is going on." Amen... that's another great concern of mine and that is one of the itches I am trying to scratch while reading through responses. I think there is real and valid reasons to question International Investing - Why we ever went d...
by bligh
Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Your post is implying that international cape ratio isn’t historically high as well. It uses that as one argument. Yes. Is the international cape ratio the second highest its ever been too? The essence of my point is that you are comparing US stock market performance at (possibly) the tail end of o...
by bligh
Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

The inception date of Vanguard Total Stock U.S. Stock Market Index Fund ( VTSMX ) was 4/27/1992. The inception date of Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ( VGTSX ) was 4/29/1996. Per Morningstar , as of 8/13/2018, if you had invested $10,000 in both funds on 4/30/1996, you would currentl...
by bligh
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

To play devil's advocate, contrary to company or industry diversification, diversify at a country-level is sound in theory but hard in practice for the following reasons: Most likely, you are born and have lived in the same country in your whole life The friction or uprooting and moving to a new co...
by bligh
Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 513
Views: 28606

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Reminder… Jack Bogle was … and still is a rebel. [Article] Have you ever wonder why certain things are as they are in your work environment? I often share the story of five monkeys and a banana. An experiment is conducted in which five rhesus monkeys were placed in a cage together with a banana han...
by bligh
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth
Replies: 83
Views: 5696

Re: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth

I have thought about making a new thread, but I figure my situation fits in well with the topic of this thread. We are in our 30's and I consider ourselves FI with a total NW of say 2-3M (with annual spend of $55k). I left my high paying job a few years ago, took time off, and now consult part time...
by bligh
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth
Replies: 83
Views: 5696

Re: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth

I have thought about making a new thread, but I figure my situation fits in well with the topic of this thread. We are in our 30's and I consider ourselves FI with a total NW of say 2-3M (with annual spend of $55k). I left my high paying job a few years ago, took time off, and now consult part time...
by bligh
Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth
Replies: 83
Views: 5696

Re: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth

So, I am asking for your opinion on the following questions to see how far off the mark I am. I am providing my answers but they are based on my gut not on any hard evidence I can back up: OP, this thread has been derailed. Let me make a very simple guide to deciding to buy a home. 1. Do you want t...
by bligh
Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth
Replies: 83
Views: 5696

Re: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth

Why would I live in that VHCOL area if I am not paid well enough to live well in those areas? <<Your solution would have to be to move out of California in the long run>> Why would I live in California in the first place? In my area, California does not pay high enough to compensate for the additio...
by bligh
Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth
Replies: 83
Views: 5696

Re: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth

Why would I live in that VHCOL area if I am not paid well enough to live well in those areas? <<Your solution would have to be to move out of California in the long run>> Why would I live in California in the first place? In my area, California does not pay high enough to compensate for the additio...
by bligh
Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth
Replies: 83
Views: 5696

Re: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth

1) I think this varies a lot by person and cost of living. The biggest downside in tying up a laree % of income (however you want to measure it net or gross) is that in general a house is very illiquid and has high transaction costs. If you are spending 30% on a house and 20% eating out, well its m...
by bligh
Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth
Replies: 83
Views: 5696

Re: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth

OP, PITI versus gross pay and whatever is irrelevant to me. I start with what I want in housing. Then, I decide whether rent or buy make the most sense in term of cost. I would only buy if A) The PITI with 20% down payment and 30 years fixed rate mortgage is 20% to 30% lowered than renting. B) My n...
by bligh
Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth
Replies: 83
Views: 5696

Re: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth

The OP asked how someone would approach determining how much house to buy in a VHCOL area as a first time purchase. I would look at overall spending and saving and not just focus on housing. Here’s our data point: we purchased a 2150 sq. foot townhouse with 4 bedrooms/4 bathrooms in an excellent ne...
by bligh
Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth
Replies: 83
Views: 5696

Re: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth

There is no universal, so the question doesn't really make sense. Housing is just consumption. If one person decides to spend 30% on housing and 0% on, I dunno, whatever you decide to spend money on, then why is that a worse choice than someone who spends 20% on housing and 10% on vacations or chil...
by bligh
Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth
Replies: 83
Views: 5696

House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth

So, I am asking for your opinion on the following questions to see how far off the mark I am. I am providing my answers but they are based on my gut not on any hard evidence I can back up: 1) What percentage of a person's gross pay should the monthly payment be? (All inclusive - Mortgage, Principal,...
by bligh
Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Response from boss re: market analysis
Replies: 71
Views: 7402

Re: Rude response from boss re: market adjustment

Fact of life... Bosses are allowed to be rude. Subordinates aren't. Learn to live with it. In practice, you are right. However I disagree with this state of affairs. I had left a job early in my career because a boss (I didn't report to him, but he was part of the senior management of the company) ...
by bligh
Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flight cancelled. Entitle to any compensation?
Replies: 37
Views: 5979

Re: Flight cancelled. Entitle to any compensation?

Jeez. I wish this thread had popped up sooner or I had posted here when I ran into the issue 2 weeks ago. I had Norwegian cancel my flight back from Rome and essentially move my return trip forward 2 days. I instead had them fly me back 3 days later on their next available flight.. (it cost an extr...
by bligh
Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Why are you leaving your current job?"
Replies: 24
Views: 2310

Re: "Why are you leaving your current job?"

Never be negative in an interview. Always be positive in your answer. If you have been with the company 5+ years, no one is going to see you as a job hopper or a trouble maker.. If you get asked that question, I would just say something to the effect of : "I am looking for new challenges, and new f...
by bligh
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Why are you leaving your current job?"
Replies: 24
Views: 2310

Re: "Why are you leaving your current job?"

Never be negative in an interview. Always be positive in your answer. If you have been with the company 5+ years, no one is going to see you as a job hopper or a trouble maker.. If you get asked that question, I would just say something to the effect of : "I am looking for new challenges, and new fr...
by bligh
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 6067

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

If I buy and hold this guy, do I only need 17x my expenses saved up for the 4% withdrawal rate then? :mrgreen:
by bligh
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4279

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

If it were March 2000, (or 1901, 1929, 1968, 2007) would you still invest half of everything you own in stocks? Yes I'd own stock, because on March 2000 I did not know what was to come, just like today I do not know what is to come tomorrow. If I knew what was to come, not only would I sell all my ...
by bligh
Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How many years till FIRE? Which path would you choose?
Replies: 38
Views: 4656

Re: How many years till FIRE? Which path would you choose?

Absolutely true. A lot of what Boglehead posters is to help questioners understand the risks and the pros/cons of taking different positions. Ultimately, one person cannot determine how to weigh those risks for another person. You have pointed out the risk of not recognizing that our time is limite...
by bligh
Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How many years till FIRE? Which path would you choose?
Replies: 38
Views: 4656

Re: How many years till FIRE? Which path would you choose?

You are talking about external forces that can upend a family’s finances. I am talking about a change within the family, like a chronic medical condition or a debilitating accident, that can totally realign a family’s finances and priorities. And family is a key word here — husband, wife, minor chi...
by bligh
Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How many years till FIRE? Which path would you choose?
Replies: 38
Views: 4656

Re: How many years till FIRE? Which path would you choose?

1. At age 40, I would use a safe withdrawal rate of 2.0% to 2.5%. That means you’d need $6 million to $7.5 million to sustain a $150,000 in expenses. That said, if it will take you to age 50, you can up the withdrawal rate to 3%. That seems exteemely pessimistic. While not perfect, the same methodo...
by bligh
Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How many years till FIRE? Which path would you choose?
Replies: 38
Views: 4656

Re: How many years till FIRE? Which path would you choose?

1. At age 40, I would use a safe withdrawal rate of 2.0% to 2.5%. That means you’d need $6 million to $7.5 million to sustain a $150,000 in expenses. That said, if it will take you to age 50, you can up the withdrawal rate to 3%. There are plenty of online calculators that will show you how long it...
by bligh
Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Skin in the game"
Replies: 105
Views: 6984

Re: "Skin in the game"

My humble opinion is that kids have enough skin in the game. It is quite literally their life and their future they are talking about. Whether they have the maturity to understand that or not at that age is the question. I hope to raise responsible adults, but If I fail, I am certainly not planning ...
by bligh
Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: How did you become a Boglehead?
Replies: 53
Views: 3430

Re: How did you become a Boglehead?

Thank goodness for my husband and his interest in investing. He was the one who set us on the path of investing back in the late '70s when he put money into his employer's stock purchase program. That started a pattern of taking opportunities when they arose to invest. We bought stock in my cousin'...
by bligh
Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 14204

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

Yes.

529 Plan + Cash Flow should hopefully be enough for 100% of undergrad for both kids.

Assisting with any graduate studies will depend on our situation.
by bligh
Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Portfolio Pain Happens
Replies: 49
Views: 4683

Re: Larry Swedroe: Portfolio Pain Happens

So Larry can fill his "lifeboats" the way he wants, I fill my "lifeboats" the way I want, and I suppose you can fill your "lifeboats" the way you want. It is, last I checked, still a free country. I like the lifeboat metaphor. Now in retirement, my savings do indeed serve the function of a lifeboat...
by bligh
Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Levels of Wealth
Replies: 125
Views: 11428

Re: 3 Levels of Wealth

OP, Another point of view. I am always wealthy. 1) I have never in debt. A) I pay off my credit card every month. B) I had a car loan but I can pay it off any time. C) I have a mortgage but I can pay it off any time too. 2) I save 1 year of expense every year for my whole life. But, I have enough m...
by bligh
Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)
Replies: 641
Views: 54550

Fidelity lowers Expenses on existing Funds

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] Hey Guys, Just FYI .. Apart from the new Zero expense ration funds that they announced, it looks like they dropped the expense ratios on most of their funds. For the fund I hold it looks like their expense ratios are significantly lower than Va...
by bligh
Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help set my investing mindset right with where to go managing Millions?
Replies: 11
Views: 1107

Re: Help set my investing mindset right with where to go managing Millions?

All you need it VTSAX, VTIAX, and VWIUX. I would split the bond component between VWIUX and VBTLX so that I dont have all my money in municipal bonds. I would go with something like 40% VTSAX/VTI (US Total Stock) 20% VTIAX/VXUS (Ex-US Total International Stock) 20% VWIUX (Intermediate term muni) 20...
by bligh
Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: How to add $340,000 to retirement savings
Replies: 77
Views: 10991

Re: Retirees: How to add $340,000 to retirement savings

Retirement is a long way away for my spouse and we have tossed around the pros and cons of owning vs renting in retirement. In general, owning would be a better option for us financially, while being a poorer lifestyle option for us... at least in early retirement. In late retirement, owning would p...
by bligh
Tue Jul 31, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are millennials botching their asset allocations?
Replies: 41
Views: 3622

Re: Are millennial botching their asset allocations?

For the most part I stopped subscribing to the belief that there are distinct generational differences between demographic cohorts. In my experience the ratio of aggressive risk-taking investors, risk-averse investors, and people who don't save or invest at all, are roughly the same across all gene...
by bligh
Tue Jul 31, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are millennials botching their asset allocations?
Replies: 41
Views: 3622

Re: Are millennial botching their asset allocations?

As a 27 year old who frequents this website, I am not botching my asset allocations. However, I do find concerning the number of my friends/coworkers who have either little to no ability to save, no concern about their retirement, or just trusting their financial advisor blindly. Is it really surpr...
by bligh
Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial upside / downside of marriage vs cohabiting
Replies: 74
Views: 5794

Re: Financial upside / downside of marriage vs cohabiting

The way I understand it, the recent tax code changes help keep much larger chunks of your income at a lower rate because of MFJ. I haven't done the exact math.. But you could probably run the numbers in your situation. Using a very simplified example, if your SO makes $50K and you make $500K. Combin...