Search found 835 matches

by elderwise
Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

tadamsmar wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 7:40 pm My daughter and her husband use a bank in LA that is experiencing failure. They have FDIC insured accounts and they got their mortgage via that bank. She asked me if they should do anything. I told her to just assume nothing would change for her.

I wonder if routine access to funds will be hindered in any way. I think this was First Republic, unless there is another bank out there that begins with R and is troubled.
FrC going down eh?
by elderwise
Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: comcast offer -- is there a catch?
Replies: 23
Views: 1979

Re: comcast offer -- is there a catch?

anoop wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:04 pm
SmileyFace wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:53 pm BE CAREFUL - are you talking to Comcast? They called me with this offer and I am not a customer - it was a scam trying to collect on that 1 year up front. Call the Comcast phone number on your bill and see if they actually have such an offer.
The number they left on voicemail was
1-855-800-4071
which announces itself as an Xfinity number.

But I think I will just pass for now.

Maybe I will look into Fidium Fiber.
Have you tried googling that number. Doesn't look like a legit Comast#.

A lot of times even calls can be faked.
by elderwise
Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

so perhaps folks can stop screaming about the "government bailout of elite well-connected woke investors" and focus on the facts on the ground. that would be nice I must not hang out in the right places -- I haven't hard any screaming about "well-connected woke investors". Scroll back some pages and you'll see folks screaming about "moral hazard," that this as a bailout of coastal elites, and and posts blaming SVB failure on ESG policies. Here's one: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=7163758#p7163758. Events like this seems to have a way of bringing out the alarmist zero hedge crowd eager to grind their ax. Nope the issue from a basic 101 economics perspective is that the risk is being mitigated...
by elderwise
Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: comcast offer -- is there a catch?
Replies: 23
Views: 1979

Re: comcast offer -- is there a catch?

anoop wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:26 pm I currently pay approx $100/mo with taxes and equipment.
Got a call from them that I can get the same for $50/mo for 3 years.
Catch is I must prepay for the first year.
Apparently there is no commitment and I can cancel at any time.

Is there any catch that I'm not seeing? Anyone here sign up for something like this?
There is a slickdeals thread about 25$ PMo for 200 Mbps down may wanna check that.

That's no contract and directly off Comcast website.
by elderwise
Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS could rival S&P500 over next decade
Replies: 57
Views: 7164

Re: TIPS could rival S&P500 over next decade

secondopinion wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:31 pm
Cheez-It Guy wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:10 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:19 am some service jobs (e.g. barber) would seem hard to automate.
So hard that a lone engineer built one in his basement to give himself a haircut during the pandemic!

https://youtu.be/7zBrbdU_y0s
https://youtu.be/WQ8Xgp8ALFo

Mainly, I just want more people to watch this excellent engineering content and feel as inadequate as I do.
But giving a haircut is not the only reason people go to a barber; they are part-therapist as they listen to everything you say and a discussion occurs. A robot will not do that yet.
Chat GPT has entered the room.
by elderwise
Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens if Schwab goes under?
Replies: 89
Views: 18921

Re: What happens if Schwab goes under?

tonyclifton wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:46 am
kabob wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:42 pm Schwab, SCHW listed on the NYSE,just dropped BigTime, like $80 to $56.78 FAST!
Think i better buy some just to keep an eye on em...
It is not a good idea to consider share prices when the market is not open. If you check the volume, you will see there is little to nothing traded on a Sunday. I did check Schwab and it was like single shares of stock being bought and sold on Sunday. Schwab is down for sure over the last six months.
Are stocks traded at all on Sundays??
by elderwise
Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

muffins14 wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:54 am
WhyNotUs wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:51 am The good news is that the bank leaders, who have been giving themselves huge bonuses while making questionable decisions, will now be able to give themselves bigger bonuses for federalizing risk :sharebeer
How will they be able to do that when they are being wiped out? SVB shareholders and bond holders are going to lose all their investment. I’m not sure how their risk has been “federalized” when their value has gone to zero and they’ve been delisted from the stock market
Senior management already sold all their stock z whose left holding bag? You and me average Joe and Jane

In God we trust 🙏
by elderwise
Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy Schwab Stock?
Replies: 38
Views: 4968

Re: Buy Schwab Stock?

Buy frc much better deal at 78% off fire sale..just hope it doesn't be like svb 😀..
by elderwise
Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

Frc stock is almost 80% down from last close.

Is it also on verge of collapsing after the Fed injection over weekend..??
by elderwise
Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

In layman's terms..svb does have assets exact $ amount is unknown.

The key take is say... I have Microsoft stock worth 1M (Cost price), and tech has tanked and its now worth 200K.

Come the Fed say hey e you know what it's fine msft will eventually go back to 1M, I'll write you a check for 1M right here right now we can worry about this later. Granted stock not same as treasure bills or bonds.

Is this baseline understanding correct?

So I made a mistake and you govt come in and fix it for the *greater good*.

👏👏👏
by elderwise
Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

This is a bailout in disguise.

Being able to borrow against their holdings at face value
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

I wonder If this was an unintended side effect..of the Fed rate hikes.

What ..other.....surprises are we in for that regulatory bodies should have planned when doing these rate hikes ro curb inflation and dry up the liquidity QT.

I am no expert and understand none of yield curve, long term short term bills but know that when I need my money at the bank they should not be I'm a sivb situation.

Futures are pumping nicely another win for the feds.

:confused
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: Long term Buy+Hold SIVB shareholder (lessons to be learned)

As a SIVB shareholder will there be a class action lawsuit? Will CEO Greg Becker go to Jail? https://www.morningstar.com › news Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker cashed out $2 million CEO Greg Becker exercised stock options -- meaning he paid money to convert his options into stock -- and then immediately sold the stock on Feb. 27, filings show. That netted him $2.27 million in personal profits. https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/svb-ceo-sold-stock-before-collapse-6198490/#:~:text=Less%20than%20two%20weeks%20before,of%20company%20stock%2C%20Bloomberg%20reports. Lawsuit? Maybe. It happens when public companies go belly up. Jail? For what? For selling shares during the proper window as dictated by regulations--just as he did in Dec 2021, ...
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Silicon Valley Bank fails, FDIC takes over]

muffins14 wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:39 pm
elderwise wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:07 pm Also I mean 2008 already happened

But basically Fdic and Feds are giving these banks free pass with no repercussions.

But I guess in the end the rules of normies don't apply to the Richies.
The bank is dead, no stock value. How is this being given a free pass?
If they don't taken any civil or legal action against the executives it basically means.

Rules for thee but not for me.

The senior leadership was well aware of this for months, and this was basically a known outcome but they were hoping for a reversal how? More fund raising capital?
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Silicon Valley Bank fails, FDIC takes over]

Do senior leadership at banks have any fiduciary duties in the way they handle the banks $ similar to how a CFP?

Or because they are management they can do anything?

Sort of a tangent but Jamie Dimon made a big mistake in buying that Frank company for 175M and now says it's fraud..how does this happen no idea . They had a team doing due diligence.
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Silicon Valley Bank fails, FDIC takes over]

Also I mean 2008 already happened

But basically Fdic and Feds are giving these banks free pass with no repercussions.

But I guess in the end the rules of normies don't apply to the Richies.
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: Regulators close New York’s Signature Bank, citing systemic risk!!

It will be interesting to see If FRB or the other Cali banks whose stocks tanked Friday will have closures.

Due to ahem.. systemic risks.
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Silicon Valley Bank fails, FDIC takes over]

I have very mixed feelings about this situation. There is a difference between protecting depositors and a bailout. At the same time, SVB was not a "Mom and Pop" sort of bank. This was a bank for mostly venture capitalists. Shouldn't there be some due diligence on VC's part with regard to the financial situation of the bank they work with? Also, is it possible to get private deposit insurance for business banking? (I assume yes but truly don't know) If, as mentioned above, Fido can spread my cash automatically across many banks why can't businesses do that or insure privately to mitigate the risks? This is a bailout of the rich, elites in Silicon Valley that are highly connected. Don’t kid yourself to think if the clientele of th...
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: Regulators close New York’s Signature Bank, citing systemic risk!!

Seems this NY bank is crypto friendly too.

Lol @ that.

Sbf slv sivb what's next?
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Silicon Valley Bank fails, FDIC takes over]

trirunner wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:48 pm
jebmke wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:47 pm
trirunner wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:45 pm
jebmke wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:39 pm
rockstar wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:36 pm

So no bail out:



Super frustrating translating this stuff to normal speak.
I believe in resolutions they have a special FDIC assessment on banks to fund any shortfall borne by FDIC. Essentially an industry "bailout" to the extent the wind-down results in losses.
It's basically a bailout, the industry will pass the cost down to average customers. so average Americans will pay to make VC whole.
Isn't that true with all insurance?
I did not sign up to pay to insure > $250k for VCs.
Exactly, when I pay for my car or homeowners insurance I am protecting MY asset.

Not my neighbors.
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Silicon Valley Bank fails, FDIC takes over]

Is there any sort of transparency for us to know if tax payers money is used?

Was TARP in 2008 a tax payer funded bailout?
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: Regulators close New York’s Signature Bank, citing systemic risk!!

To me..it seems there is more to come.
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Silicon Valley Bank fails, FDIC takes over]

One point I’d really like to make - Just because SVB did not go through the “big bank stress test” does not = unregulated. At their size and being publicly traded, they had annual Safety And Soundness Exams by their primary federal regulator and the state banking regulatory agency. They would be rated on a CAMELS system - Capital, Asset Quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity, Sensitivity to market risk. They would have Asset Liability Management stress testing. They would have annual audits from an outside auditor for their 10Ks. They would have SOX audits being public. They have FDICIA controls. I can keep going. There were plenty of folks looking at this and any bank. and now because of this situation a lot of perfectly stable banks ar...
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Silicon Valley Bank fails, FDIC takes over]

Why would anyone want to buy them? JPM is already poaching their clients with the baggage. At the right price it could be a steal. Obviously, $1 would be an OUTSTANDING price! When I worked on the margin desk, me and my colleagues thought about going on margin to buy a slug of Enron at $10 for our personal accounts. After all, with all of those physical assets it had to be worth something. We never put in that order. Hey Alex, you are very knowledgeable in this. Is it somehow possible that due to this contagion spreading and liquidity going away, prime brokers like Jeffries and others that a lot of Hedge funds use to finance their shorts if any XYZ companies cause a squeeze as the stocks being used as collateral significantly lose value. S...
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Silicon Valley Bank fails, FDIC takes over]

Is their stock guaranteed to go 0$ $SIVB?

I assume even if another bank buys siv, stock is still 0?

How's is legal for ceo to cash millions in $ stock sale weeks before they know things were bad 👎. Is there no justice to the tax payers,?
by elderwise
Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 213637

Re: [Silicon Valley Bank fails, FDIC takes over]

Auction process underway to find buyer for SVB. Bidding starting at $1. Why would anyone want to buy them? JPM is already poaching their clients with the baggage. At the right price it could be a steal. Obviously, $1 would be an OUTSTANDING price! When I worked on the margin desk, me and my colleagues thought about going on margin to buy a slug of Enron at $10 for our personal accounts. After all, with all of those physical assets it had to be worth something. We never put in that order. Hey Alex, you are very knowledgeable in this. Is it somehow possible that due to this contagion spreading and liquidity going away, prime brokers like Jeffries and others that a lot of Hedge funds use to finance their shorts if any XYZ companies cause a sq...
by elderwise
Wed Dec 28, 2022 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bob the Market Timer- Index to Cash to Index?
Replies: 52
Views: 11390

Re: Bob the Market Timer- Index to Cash to Index?

12 months checking in.

Seems things are going as expected.

Waiting... Waiting.

Time in the market wins over timing the market.. eh. Uhm.. most of the time.
by elderwise
Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So when do know for sure we are in recession
Replies: 70
Views: 4526

Re: So when do know for sure we are in recession

Did you recently change to all cash? Jan 27th 2022. And I posted here as well but it was a fools errand and I was taking my chances.. so yes it was a stupid luck I am not intelligent. You have done well. Kudos for your guts my friend. To make the rest of us feel better, the market was down 9% from dec.31 to Jan. 27 , 2022. I remember a huge market drop of Jan 24 and I wanted to move more money into equities but didn't. You had the opposite approach. I wouldn't necessarily go all stocks if I were you as others propose, but you should at least move 50% into stocks right now. Today would have been a great day for it after huge losses. I think we are up 7 or 8% since October 14 buy you are not going to pick the bottom so my advice would be sta...
by elderwise
Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So when do know for sure we are in recession
Replies: 70
Views: 4526

Re: So when do know for sure we are in recession

Btw I took a a realized 8 or 10K rough hit from Nov 2020 ATH to my January exit from index to cash. In my 401k
by elderwise
Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So when do know for sure we are in recession
Replies: 70
Views: 4526

Re: So when do know for sure we are in recession

Guys if we are in an inflationary environment, won't the 401k cash sitting in stable value funds with a fixed 3 to 4% also increase? (The fixed rate % I. Mean) So I guess my question is, if we are in uncertain times for a year or so.. is this really a loss if and when savings rate hit 5 to 7%. I got lucky, but I ofcourse don't want to stay out forever but also what is really lost at higher interest rates which will definitely happen over the course of next few months? Isn't this then..a question of protection of capital (preservation) vs 'losing' phantom wealth I never really had ? Also this is no way is my indication that I am smarter than others and or someone who stays the course is wrong. I did the same in 2020, vs my co worker who made...
by elderwise
Wed Nov 02, 2022 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So when do know for sure we are in recession
Replies: 70
Views: 4526

Re: So when do know for sure we are in recession

Some of my CC have cut my limits with a solid credit score.

What do you think happens next?

Btw anyone else seeing their cc limits being dropped? And no I am not referring to inactive cards.
by elderwise
Wed Nov 02, 2022 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bob the Market Timer- Index to Cash to Index?
Replies: 52
Views: 11390

Re: Bob the Market Timer- Index to Cash to Index?

delamer wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 5:25 pm
elderwise wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 5:03 pm All funds still in stable value ( 3%).

Any price below my exit price on Jan 26th will have made this a win. And I don't see this happening any time soon.
You need to look at total return, not just share prices.
Hmm interesting. So if vtsax is 25% down and throws 5% dividend hypothetically

And I have parked in stable fund at 3 to 4%

Would there still be need to look at total return?
by elderwise
Wed Nov 02, 2022 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So when do know for sure we are in recession
Replies: 70
Views: 4526

Re: So when do know for sure we are in recession

strummer6969 wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:24 pm
elderwise wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:07 pm
student wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:05 pm Did you recently change to all cash?
Jan 27th 2022. And I posted here as well but it was a fools errand and I was taking my chances.. so yes it was a stupid luck I am not intelligent.
I'm just curious - how much did you have invested? I had an urge to go to cash in January but did not act on it. If I had a smaller portfolio, I think the decision would've been easier. It's hard to justify blowing out an entire portfolio.

But great job sticking with cash even through all the bear market rallies we've had :beer It was well played in hindsight.
150K converted from FXAIX fido's equivalent of VTSAX.
by elderwise
Wed Nov 02, 2022 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So when do know for sure we are in recession
Replies: 70
Views: 4526

Re: So when do know for sure we are in recession

H-Town wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 5:09 pm
elderwise wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:03 pm 2 Quarters seemed a rule of thumb. ..til it didnt.

So is 3 Quarters a confirmed recession or is it 4 negative Qtrs ? I have my whole 401k In cash so I am curious.

Thanks!
What happened to your triple leveraged plays? or did you play puts with those "recession" bets?
Exited with measly gains never the less net +ve and that was outside 401k
by elderwise
Wed Nov 02, 2022 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So when do know for sure we are in recession
Replies: 70
Views: 4526

Re: So when do know for sure we are in recession

2 Quarters seemed a rule of thumb. ..til it didnt. So is 3 Quarters a confirmed recession or is it 4 negative Qtrs ? I have my whole 401k In cash so I am curious. Thanks! just curious, when did you go to cash? On 01/26/22 as I have updated the other thread here with that info. I have never gone all cash, my friend advised me to do so in 2020 when i went nobody knows nuthin didnt act on his advicd and told him you cant time it.. and he made out like bandits..my strategy was to not miss out like the last time he made in excess of 300K in his 401k are you trying to determine when to get back to investing? Yes have you done this before (gone to cash) or is this the first time? First time all cash do you think the goal of investing is to never ...
by elderwise
Wed Nov 02, 2022 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So when do know for sure we are in recession
Replies: 70
Views: 4526

Re: So when do know for sure we are in recession

Imagine the worst that can happen in either direction- You go all in now and the market drops another 40% and we have the beginning of the lost decade 2.0 that takes more than eight years to get back to just even Or you stay in cash and we bottomed with the market going to new highs with Cape ratio's of 40+ getting really expensive before you decide to get back in near a new top. I am honestly not one of those that I have read here in this forum itself and outside who exited in 00 or 07 and never went back to stocks.long term index wins. I was specifically looking at this as a timing thing, and do want to get back in. But with all the Ukraine Russia, oil, easy money going back..I thought it was pretty sure not a 2020 bull run for sometime.
by elderwise
Wed Nov 02, 2022 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bob the Market Timer- Index to Cash to Index?
Replies: 52
Views: 11390

Re: Bob the Market Timer- Index to Cash to Index?

All funds still in stable value ( 3%).

Any price below my exit price on Jan 26th will have made this a win. And I don't see this happening any time soon.
by elderwise
Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So when do know for sure we are in recession
Replies: 70
Views: 4526

Re: So when do know for sure we are in recession

jebmke wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:08 pm I don't know; but my sense is that news of a recession often happens well after the equity markets hit bottom. Quite often, job losses, bankruptcies, home foreclosures continue well after equity markets start to go up.
We are slowly getting there mortgages rates have shot up a lot, inflation is hot.

The only thing holding I feel is our job market is quite hot ...still... even with layoffs.

So is that the final straw? ..jobs...?
by elderwise
Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So when do know for sure we are in recession
Replies: 70
Views: 4526

Re: So when do know for sure we are in recession

student wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:05 pm Did you recently change to all cash?
Jan 27th 2022. And I posted here as well but it was a fools errand and I was taking my chances.. so yes it was a stupid luck I am not intelligent.
by elderwise
Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So when do know for sure we are in recession
Replies: 70
Views: 4526

So when do know for sure we are in recession

2 Quarters seemed a rule of thumb. ..til it didnt.

So is 3 Quarters a confirmed recession or is it 4 negative Qtrs ? I have my whole 401k In cash so I am curious.

Thanks!
by elderwise
Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14353
Views: 1986216

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

privatefarmer wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 7:55 pm I think I’m down around only 80%…. But hopefully with time it’ll recover. Been pretty brutal.
Is this YTD or since the start? The 3x fngu, tqqq, tmf all ate very badly down 80 90% ytd.

Hope you are only 80% ytd but even so it's a rough ride.

For @Marseille07 who deleted their post asking what is so bad bad.. well YTD 80 to 85% down is pretty bad hopefully it's over. But with the current micro / Macro environment it's hard to say.
by elderwise
Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14353
Views: 1986216

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Another bad bad day for HF strategy.

Is private farmer still here?
by elderwise
Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I get new iPhone?
Replies: 62
Views: 5633

Re: Should I get new iPhone?

I think iphone 13 you would find good deals on. It has sim slot which I personally consider indispensable...

Other than the higher MP camera & satellite features.. iphone 12 or 13 would still serve you good for years to come.

The new SE isn't as good as the 1st gen SE. This I agree with others.. batt life just ain't good.

Also if you are going mini route go Iph13 mini not 12 mini.
by elderwise
Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Replies: 282
Views: 50755

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Feels like tomorrow we might hit another new bottom of a bottom.
by elderwise
Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14353
Views: 1986216

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

With nasdaq futes telegraphing a deep red I wonder what tomorrow I'll bring to this Hf strategy

The 3x is only magnifying the drawdown and unfortunately at this time both stock and bond side.

For those who are heavy on this strategy & with Portfolio Margin to increase leverage like Private farmer what are you doing hodl? Add more from new cash?

Wanting to enter but waiting..it seems it's only dropping further and further 😕
by elderwise
Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Replies: 282
Views: 50755

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

No CFP needed this guy is prophetic, hopefully June low breaches today. Time to jump in when we get closer to -30% :shock: 30% is a shallow recession with Fed moving to zero bound, where we are today though I'm pretty sure the Fed, being composed of some of our brightest folks, will work very hard to avoid the mistakes of the past. I think, with nothing concrete to base this on, that they will largely succeed. “Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “sof...
by elderwise
Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bob the Market Timer- Index to Cash to Index?
Replies: 52
Views: 11390

Re: Bob the Market Timer- Index to Cash to Index?

Don't be surprised if you get excessive trading letters from your 401k provider. I did when I bounced in and out in 2020. Now, I just let my 401k ride and keep buying into the S&P 500. As of my other money, I'm in t-bills and TIPS. I do plan to go back in. But I have quantitative measures to use, not gut feel. Right now, with the S&P trading well below 20x, I feel good DCAing back into the market. But I have some t-bills that I'm waiting to mature first. https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio However, check out this chart. When interest rates were high in the 80s, the S&P 500 traded in the 5-10x range. And we're still above the median and mean values right now. excessive trading / blocks happen if you swing back and forth. if ...
by elderwise
Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14353
Views: 1986216

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Q4 2022 or Q1 2023 maybe a good time to go into this strategy.

lately this has been brutal to the HF'ers - YTD FNGU is 84% down and TQQQ is 76% down OUCH. TMF 65%
by elderwise
Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bob the Market Timer- Index to Cash to Index?
Replies: 52
Views: 11390

Re: Bob the Market Timer- Index to Cash to Index?

I think my gambling has turned out fine so far. I was out.. lately, too much noise here and outside.

Also this 'gambling' was a lot safer than going all in in Gamestop or AMC :oops:

When to get back in is very easy, you get back in when everyone else is thinking of get back out.

Q4 2022 and 2023 will be interesting to observe.
by elderwise
Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:36 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Happy Birthday To Mel Lindauer - June 22, 2022
Replies: 29
Views: 2584

Re: Happy Birthday To Mel Lindauer - June 22, 2022

Happy Birthday Mel. whenever I see your name you know what comes to mind

Mel's unloved mid Caps! Spell check ugh

Thank you for your contributions.