Search found 254 matches

by elderwise
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve scraps transfer count limits on savings accounts
Replies: 41
Views: 3498

Re: Federal Reserve scraps transfer count limits on savings accounts

So the Federal Reserve came up with a new method of keeping these excess reserves from leaking into the economy and causing inflation. The Federal Reserve for the first time in 2008 started paying banks interest on their excess reserves. By varying the the interest rate, the Federal Reserve can thr...
by elderwise
Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Price of oil has collapsed; how will this impact the economy?
Replies: 108
Views: 8254

Re: Price of oil has collapsed; how will this impact the economy?

How do these futures work so if I buy contract worth $5000 at 2 per barrel do I need to take delivery or is this just paper trading I just dont get how the physical delivery is handled.

I thought people just buy and then sell for either profit or loss but nobody really takes the delivery ?
by elderwise
Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FDIC announces first bank failure since [but not because of] coronavirus crisis
Replies: 12
Views: 1910

FDIC announces first bank failure since [but not because of] coronavirus crisis

[edited title for clarity. Note "The FDIC said in a press release that the bank operated with “financial difficulties” since 2015" - moderator prudent] Not sure if anyone else read this, seems like first bank in US to fail under covid crisis https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fdic-announces-first-ba...
by elderwise
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190713

Re: First Infant COVID death in IL - Chicago

Heartbreaking, but not the right place to post this. I posted this because a lot of presumably young folks think they are immune, and only elder folks are in danger. I guess we all need to look at the big picture and beyond the 'buy it cheap' or 'let it crash more so i can stock up on value', this ...
by elderwise
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:13 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190713

First Infant COVID death in IL - Chicago

This is very local, but still -- hope this ends soon... https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/cook-county-infant-dies-from-coronavirus-first-in-us/2246475/ Cook County Infant Dies From Coronavirus, First in US [This topic has been merged into the preexisting Bogleheads community discussion- Co...
by elderwise
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626160

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:31 am
Finally a calm day?
the calm before the storm ...... :|
by elderwise
Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626160

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

peskypesky wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:48 am
The dead cat is bouncing no more. Futures down. -3.7%
seems like we might hit another day of circuit breakers at open - all futures index are limit down
by elderwise
Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4902
Views: 422664

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

For those not following the after hours markets, the S&P and Nasdaq are currently limit down and long term Treasury futures are also down 1% vs. the 4pm equity close. i am following the futures - seems like we will be hitting circuit breakers again at open eh? so both UPRO and TMF will tank at open...
by elderwise
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P Dow Jones postpones quarterly re-balancing until markets settle
Replies: 3
Views: 339

S&P Dow Jones postpones quarterly re-balancing until markets settle

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-dow-jones-postpones-quarterly-rebalancing-until-markets-settle-2020-03-17?mod=bnbh What does this mean to us Index investors ?? VTSAX or VINIX etc wont be correctly tracking the underlying holdings ??? S&P Dow Jones Indices will postpone the quarterly rebalancing...
by elderwise
Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safety of Money Market Funds Currently
Replies: 149
Views: 11877

Re: Safety of Money Market Funds Currently

Nate79 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:58 pm
This has reached an unbelievable level of insanity. It's 2008/2009 all over again.
Are you referring to the fact that its insane people are worrying over losing $$$ in Govt SPAXX fund , or something else?
by elderwise
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4902
Views: 422664

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I am wondering is the TMF % up sort of making up for the drop in UPRO?
by elderwise
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone here keeps super low GTC limit orders ...
Replies: 4
Views: 389

Does anyone here keeps super low GTC limit orders ...

for VTI, TQQQ, VOO or any other favorite ETF looking to buy when it goes insanely low? and at what price do you keep a staggered limit order

like for ex. VTI : 50@ 100$, 60@95$, 80@70$ ?

these draw downs present a very good opportunity :P

Just wondering..
by elderwise
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626160

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Futures are already bouncing up from this news: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-coronavirus-spreads-both-trump-and-democrats-call-for-paid-sick-leave-2020-03-12?mod=mw_latestnews Too early to tell if its another dead cat bounce before going further down the .... Dow futures up 192 pts Nasdaq fu...
by elderwise
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k change VINIX to Fixed SAGIC Stable Value to cap losses?
Replies: 2
Views: 97

Re: 401k change VINIX to Fixed SAGIC Stable Value to cap losses?

His loss was around 25K , 401k in index was around 125K before it shed this much...

looking at the futures its hard to think he made the wrong decision lol , seeing it he did the past week on friday when we had the bounce in green..
by elderwise
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k change VINIX to Fixed SAGIC Stable Value to cap losses?
Replies: 2
Views: 97

401k change VINIX to Fixed SAGIC Stable Value to cap losses?

A friend recently liquidated (not cashed out) exchanged his Total stock holdings to stable value his loss around 25K, to cap further loss and to re-enter Total STock at a lower price (ofcourse a bet) - is this a good decision?He is planning to re enter when maybe VTI hits 100 or 95 - I am not planni...
by elderwise
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TQQQ - when / whats the price it has to be liquidated
Replies: 1
Views: 403

TQQQ - when / whats the price it has to be liquidated

Ok, so i am only in for 17K entered into TQQQ at 112$ thinking it was a good deal :oops: knowing of severe drawdowns possible and i am fine if goes down as much as its now 40 ish. not selling.At what price - will it either do a reverse stock split, or need to delist / close the fund. This is more of...
by elderwise
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying PUTS at this time is it pricey
Replies: 1
Views: 152

Buying PUTS at this time is it pricey

I know nothing how options trading works and i know this is aint WSB lol but is buying PUTS expensive (premium) wise etc to enter into now when we are already in such bad market. I am not talking about buying PUTS with holding underlying shares - just plain PUTS that has unlimited upside potential b...
by elderwise
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190713

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The Italian health system is already buckling - and they're still at < 10K cases. Saw over the weekend that they are asking 20,000+ retired doctors and nurses to come out of retirement to help. And that's at sub 10K cases..imagine when it's 100K. The confirmed cases in Italy was under 7,000 as of y...
by elderwise
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in correction territory yet or not?
Replies: 20
Views: 2325

Re: Are we in correction territory yet or not?

Thanks for the replies everyone.. I just did nothing sometimes inaction is the best action...have a gut feeling it gonna get worse before it gets better. What would you do ? ... @Sandtrap money May be needed in the next 5-8 years not for house. @ukbogler - very nice article indeed - seems to be best...
by elderwise
Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Circuit breakers - how does ETF price the underlying holdings like VTI / QQQ
Replies: 2
Views: 332

Circuit breakers - how does ETF price the underlying holdings like VTI / QQQ

I am curious how the 5, 7 , 20% Circuit breakers affect the ETF's like VTI, QQQ etc when say their underlying stocks drop so low that the individual stocks may be halted but the ETF itself is traded.

Are there price inefficiencies ? or somehow its automatically adjusted??
by elderwise
Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2.5% spike in one minute?
Replies: 13
Views: 1366

Re: 2.5% spike in one minute?

The markets are already self adjusting down.. VTI already slightly lower before the spike.

I guess everyone knows how bad the situation is that the FEd needs to lower the rates.. we might be in a dead cat bounce folks..hold on to your dry powder 8-)
by elderwise
Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626160

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I did not think this was over.. especially that fake 2.5% pop on Friday in the last 15 mins, 5-10% downside from here and then we bottom.. my guess The last few hour or so of the trading session seemed to me like an Algo trading..all stocks went up and general volume increased either like a month e...
by elderwise
Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in correction territory yet or not?
Replies: 20
Views: 2325

Are we in correction territory yet or not?

Have some unexpected cash come in 100K, not required immediately. Thinking of DCA's into Total Stock next few months, its not a perfect buy the bottom attempt but gradually average out down to whatever.Would be easier in terms of tax lots to just dump in 1 go, but with current situation feeling best...
by elderwise
Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can TQQQ or UPRO become XIV?
Replies: 9
Views: 589

Can TQQQ or UPRO become XIV?

Hi, is it possible If nasdaq drops a lot and due to the daily reset the tqqq fund can go kaboom like XIV? Also what does it mean when you say someone is Long on Tqqq is that the same as saying you have 100 tqqq shares ? Would it be good to buy down during a solid TQQQ drawdown ? Since the drawdown i...
by elderwise
Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:13 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Forum is very slow?? is this just today?
Replies: 151
Views: 9446

Re: Forum is very slow?? is this just today?

I am visting the forum 5 AM on a weekend only so I can access it fast.

I think its just too much load, if its hosted on a VPS - not a dedicated box - must be overload :)
by elderwise
Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4902
Views: 422664

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Can anyone more technically sound on me, correct or confirm the below statement from this guy on Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/faupop/tqqpuke/ In order to reset their 3X daily exposure, it seems TQQQ fund itself is buying the dip and lowering their cash:stock ratio..i could...
by elderwise
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Forum is very slow?? is this just today?
Replies: 151
Views: 9446

Forum is very slow?? is this just today?

I am noticing refreshing threads, general links take super long to open - is there a ongoing maintenance or just heavy load on the servers? I knew Fidelity was having issue with the balances due to Market Orders.. didnt realize BH forums was also under heavy load. Also same things happens on my cell...
by elderwise
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please help me understand - SPCE ???
Replies: 10
Views: 764

Re: Please help me understand - SPCE ???

So now DOW is down 700 points, almost 2.4% and nasdaq 200 2.22% while this stock is still trading almost at same price..and it is trading

I still don't get it..
by elderwise
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please help me understand - SPCE ???
Replies: 10
Views: 764

Please help me understand - SPCE ???

I am primarily an INDEXer, however what is the logic behind WHY an individual stock for 2 days in row would be GREEN when the whole market is red. DOW, S n P, Nasdaq is down 1000's points? Is this simple demand / supply ? their volume traded is ridiculous, i am not asking if SPCE is good, just wante...
by elderwise
Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Windfall during times of big drops ..not necessarily a recession
Replies: 7
Views: 1254

Windfall during times of big drops ..not necessarily a recession

If you had a small windfall of 200-300 K during times such as today, or something worse...would the advice still be Lump sum is better than DCA?

Or if the market keeps tanking and tanking (not really recession) and you keep DCA's ing into the dip would it not be better than lump sump at one?

Thanks,
by elderwise
Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4902
Views: 422664

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'm honestly blown away by the number of people starting off their investment journey, with this strategy, and how popular these app brokerages are. I wouldn't trust any of them with a sizable portfolio, especially considering the number of reliable big names out there. I'm curious how many here ru...
by elderwise
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does your BUY or Sell order affect the market
Replies: 1
Views: 264

When does your BUY or Sell order affect the market

I always wonder when does a buy or sell order for a broadly traded ETF or stock, starts to affect the market like djia or Nasdaq?

100K, 200K, 1MM?

Does anyone have any answers with data backing it?
by elderwise
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another Roth 401k vs 401k trad , gov employee with 457B gov and pension elgbl
Replies: 13
Views: 491

Re: Another Roth 401k vs 401k trad , gov employee with 457B gov and pension elgbl

I also have on my W2 BOX 12C coded DD with an amount of 25K, below I see what it refers to, does this also reduce my AGI or only reduce my state tax?

DD - Cost of employer-sponsored health coverage. The amount reported with Code DD is not taxable.
by elderwise
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another Roth 401k vs 401k trad , gov employee with 457B gov and pension elgbl
Replies: 13
Views: 491

Re: Another Roth 401k vs 401k trad , gov employee with 457B gov and pension elgbl

If you are not sure you will be in the current job until pension is vested, I would NOT do Roth 401k completely. When you are completely vested in the pension, then given that you are guaranteed some future income in retirement, I would suggest you are in a better shape to take more risk and do Rot...
by elderwise
Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another Roth 401k vs 401k trad , gov employee with 457B gov and pension elgbl
Replies: 13
Views: 491

Another Roth 401k vs 401k trad , gov employee with 457B gov and pension elgbl

Hello, Need some advise, I know by my various searches and posts by others, everyone recommends trad but can you see in my case if Roth 401k makes sense? Make 100K, max out 401k, 457B (gov empl), gov employer deducts around 12K mandatory defined pension contributions.Spouse makes 30-40K, she also de...
by elderwise
Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4902
Views: 422664

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Who else is here 100% TQQQ, just curious and how much % or $ you have invested...

or 80/20 TQQQ/TMF
by elderwise
Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big Data and Market Forecasting
Replies: 26
Views: 1573

Re: Big Data and Market Forecasting

Why is there so much speculation in this thread when the answer was literally in the first response: If i am not wrong, HFT, QF already do this to generate massive returns (think RenTech - Jim Simmons)...but obviously its like dark magic nobody knows other than those who know it.. if not we would a...
by elderwise
Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are index investors investing in QQQ by accident?
Replies: 28
Views: 2785

Re: Are index investors investing in QQQ by accident?

just kidding -- but Yeah that's why we should all just jump into TQQQ and enjoy :) 8-) :oops:
by elderwise
Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4902
Views: 422664

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I have a bit over $30k in it, which is a pretty large amount for me. I know two people who put some money into variants of this who have not posted. And it got spread around beyond this forum (including at the aforementioned WSB). I would be very surprised if the total in this was less than $2m. I'...
by elderwise
Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4902
Views: 422664

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

we have to wait for privatefarmer to reply, i only have around 70K in this strategy (so far).. @hdas if i am not wrong he has 500K plus invested into this and a mix of margin 1.5x on top of that talk about leverage on steroids. I think combined people here on this thread might have close to 2 mill.....
by elderwise
Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big Data and Market Forecasting
Replies: 26
Views: 1573

Re: Big Data and Market Forecasting

If i am not wrong, HFT, QF already do this to generate massive returns (think RenTech - Jim Simmons)...but obviously its like dark magic nobody knows other than those who know it..

if not we would all be billionaires by now :P
by elderwise
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4902
Views: 422664

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I initiated a 100% TQQQ position in August. It is now a few points from a 100% return.... parabolic doesn't begin to describe. That's maximum pucker factor right there. I rolled out of UPRO / TMF back in september to 100% TQQQ in two roth iras (spousal+ me) and its close to 45% up. I know it can go...
by elderwise
Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pension Plus 457 Plan
Replies: 27
Views: 2227

Re: Pension Plus 457 Plan

Betterself wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:52 pm
I guess we are lucky as our state lawmakers never figure the loophole out. AKA not too many people claim that benefit.
@Betterself, I did not get what you mean by claim? the 457 is the employees, and so is the pension..not sure I get it..
by elderwise
Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Discounted IVF medication programs for higher income people?
Replies: 12
Views: 1548

Re: Discounted IVF medication programs for higher income people?

One thing I would like to add is that even for States that are mandated by laws to cover IVF , do note if your employer is self-insured (means basically they only use the CIGNA / BCBS etc to manage the claims and use the insurance providers negotiated rates but the final payer is the employer itself...
by elderwise
Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4902
Views: 422664

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

for 300K is the the futures strategy better than doing UPRO or TQQQ with TMF / EDV / TLT ?
by elderwise
Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Passport renewal and 'passport card' (extra $30)
Replies: 36
Views: 1556

Re: Passport renewal and 'passport card' (extra $30)

For those above who mention going back and forth to Canada frequently, (US Citizens I mean) its more worth while to get the NEXUS card issued jointly by CBP and CBSA for US and Canada agencies which also gives you in addition to being cleared for canada via air, sea and land to also have Global Entr...
by elderwise
Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BUY! BUY!! BUY!!! So, is anybody hedging?
Replies: 66
Views: 5700

Re: BUY! BUY!! BUY!!! So, is anybody hedging?

There was a post on this thread (page 2) about repo rates i dont see now, where did it go..

did someone delete it?
by elderwise
Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4902
Views: 422664

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Anyone else backed out? just curious -

@Moto what amount of $$ had you vested in it when you were active? Was it taxable or tax deferred?
by elderwise
Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retiring at 24 - Extreme FIRE is it possible?
Replies: 158
Views: 13624

Re: Retiring at 24 - Extreme FIRE is it possible?

Yes. It is possible. So far I have spent under 20k per year on average (currently under 13k) and also have a family of 4. How? Can you share your actual annual expenses over the last couple years? For the past 37 to 44 months: 5K property Taxes 9.7K medical 5k travel 3.7k utilities 24.6k credit car...
by elderwise
Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard going to do TV commercials
Replies: 62
Views: 5380

Re: Why doesn't Vanguard advertise on TV like other companies?

I think pretty recently i saw a video ad on youtube too ...