Search found 126 matches

by dspencer
Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 166
Views: 18819

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

A valid question. Many of the up-and-coming projects have the value of the coin tied to the project’s real world adoption/success in some way, as opposed to just being a “currency” and nothing else like BTC and it’s derivitaves. How can something that is infinitely replaceable have any value? No on...
by dspencer
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 166
Views: 18819

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

I suppose it’s like the dot com bubble in that sense. Anyone can create a website, but many of them aren’t particularly useful. But, after the crash, companies with actual use rose from the ashes and many are giants today. I think cryptos will see something similar. BTC has fallen to where it was i...
by dspencer
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 166
Views: 18819

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

What happens if no miner wants to sell at less than $5,000, and nobody wants to buy at more than $3,000? Does the posted "market price" at places like coindesk continue to show a fictitious $5,000, with the only indication that it's not real being a transaction volume of zero? Isn't the "market pri...
by dspencer
Fri Dec 22, 2017 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why own VTABX/BNDX now?
Replies: 3
Views: 753

Re: Why own VTABX/BNDX now?

You have the wrong figure for yield to maturity for the international bond index fund. Vanguard lists 0.8%, not 2.1%—the higher figure is the average coupon. There shouldn't be that huge a gap between YtM and the SEC yield, and there isn't. The municipal bond market is narrower and less diversified...
by dspencer
Fri Dec 22, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 166
Views: 18819

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Ok, I was assuming a logarithmic chart. I'm going to drop from this thread because it's really not being productive for anyone, but before leaving I feel I have to share for all the people who will come and say "wow, what a massive drop in this chart!", this crash doesn't look any different than al...
by dspencer
Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 166
Views: 18819

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

My point still stands: why shout out on bogleheads "I knew the end was coming and it finally came!" like many are doing right now, when what in reality seems to be happening is just a liquidity issue causing a 20% crash which is mostly irrelevant considering the growth of the asset YTD? Wait until ...
by dspencer
Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why own VTABX/BNDX now?
Replies: 3
Views: 753

Why own VTABX/BNDX now?

As part of my transition from Betterment to Vanguard I have a small position in Vanguard Total International Bond Fund (BNDX/VTABX/VTIBX). I know there have been some discussions about why it may or may not make sense to own international bonds in general. However, I'm more curious as to whether the...
by dspencer
Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 719
Views: 192158

Re: Share your net worth progression

I've always been a record keeper on this stuff and it is great to have a place to share. The rest of the story is (most often) two earners, four kids including one with special needs, an inclination toward saving, investing in equities and staying the course. 1990 $57K age 29 1991 $94K 1992 $141K 1...
by dspencer
Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation [in market crash]
Replies: 38
Views: 2515

Re: Asset Allocation [in market crash]

I absolutely agree there is no way to anticipate a crash. But once a crash occurs, should we anticipate a recovery? If I were closer to retirement I would have a good portion in Bonds. If a crash occurred, wouldn’t I want to favor stocks temporarily? Whether the bounce back is 1 or 10 years. In my ...
by dspencer
Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

1. I was purposefully vague about the context of our relationship simply because it's the internet. Suffice it to say it's a close & high trust relationship, not just a buddy from college. 2. I have dealt personally with plenty of financial advisors and in particular with those serving High Net Wor...
by dspencer
Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

There is also maybe a degree of overconfidence in predicting the market. I think that is a large reason. Folks who are rich are usually self made business owners. They did it by taking on HUGE risks that paid off. They just assume they can analyze the winners better then everyone else since they ha...
by dspencer
Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

Personally, we should be asking him for help. It is great to be a bogleheads, but would rather have 30+million and get fleeced a few million every year by a FA then be a bogleheads and worry abut 20 base points in ER. My advice, a good accountant, good estate lawyer, and any reasonable plan will do...
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

1) OP - what's the context for this? Does the friend really want your help? How has this been indicated? 2) Assuming that the friend really does want OP's advice, it just seems kinda odd. Very wealthy person, with money invest poorly (in my opinion) doesn't turn to professionals, nor to self educat...
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1372809

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Still an accumulator, but approaching the end. Otoh, DS is beginning his accumulation, and I’d like him to get a sense for what a sharp drop feels like. He’s got enough now ($xxk) that he will feel it. He knows, by reading, that volatility goes both ways, but that’s something you have to experience...
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

If I had this much money and didn't need any more, I would definitely use the "Larry Portfolio", or something like that. 70% US intermediate treasuries 10% US SCV 10% Intl SCV 10% EM Is there a reason to prefer treasuries over municipal bonds? Comparing VFIUX to VWIUX they seem fairly similar in mo...
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

Laddering does provide flexibility, but it's not a free lunch. The shorter durations pay very low interest rates. VMLUX pays so little I'm not even sure it's justified over a saving's account, except it's tax exempt. It's probably barely keeping pace with inflation now also. Philosophically, I don'...
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

3 Fund Portfolio Works for $3,000 or $30,000,000. It would also free up some more time to enjoy having $30 million dollars. :wink: I am a fan of the 3 fund portfolio, although to be fair I have helped with his muni bonds and that is already 3 funds: VWIUX (intermediate term), VMLUX (limited term), ...
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

Dude seriously?!?!? This guy has 30 million dollars in assets. He has no worries. think of it as a daydreaming exercise! As others have said, the 3 fund portfolio works with extra zeros on the assets as well. I think I could be happy with a 3 fund of my own with $30 million at this stage in my life...
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Car loans vs. Home loans - Are markets efficient?
Replies: 12
Views: 1250

Re: Car loans vs. Home loans - Are markets efficient?

Several good reasons presented. Maybe another one is that it's easier to repo a car than to foreclose on a house? It's also easier to resell a car than to resell a foreclosed house.
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1372809

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

sschoe2 wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:00 pm
Can we post a new thread titled U.S. stocks rising out of control or is that a non-actionable troll post?
Rising out of control? Buy Buy Buy! Wait, doesn't that mean a drop is inevitable at any second? Sell Sell Sell!

Seems totally actionable to me. :D
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

How much are his annual expenses? How much more would he like to have and how fast? Is he saving for something special? What? 1. I don't know. $1MM/year maybe. I'm a huge fan of budgeting personally, but that's not going to happen. Also, at this level it's not so simple. When I buy a car, I just tr...
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

Dude seriously?!?!? This guy has 30 million dollars in assets. He has no worries. think of it as a daydreaming exercise! As others have said, the 3 fund portfolio works with extra zeros on the assets as well. I think I could be happy with a 3 fund of my own with $30 million at this stage in my life...
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

Step 1: Control downside risk. I don't know anything about the businesses that they own, but owning businesses can be a huge risk. This couple doesn't have much of a risk of going broke, but most of that risk probably comes from these businesses. I would strongly consider selling these if they were...
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

3 Fund Portfolio Works for $3,000 or $30,000,000. It would also free up some more time to enjoy having $30 million dollars. :wink: I am a fan of the 3 fund portfolio, although to be fair I have helped with his muni bonds and that is already 3 funds: VWIUX (intermediate term), VMLUX (limited term), ...
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

Personally, we should be asking him for help. It is great to be a bogleheads, but would rather have 30+million and get fleeced a few million every year by a FA then be a bogleheads and worry abut 20 base points in ER. My advice, a good accountant, good estate lawyer, and any reasonable plan will do...
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

Less than half of net worth is in simple investable assets. In the list presented, everything below the "cash" line would be problematic for me. Above the cash line, looks like only 23% equities. I have no clue what to say about all this as the investor needs a real time-out in order to figure out ...
by dspencer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5708

Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

I am trying to help a friend determine a more sensible allocation. Here are his and his wife's details: Married, both in 60s Retired from primary professions but continue to earn income as business owners. Currently earning roughly $2-3 MM per year but that is not reliable in long term as it's a vol...
by dspencer
Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 195
Views: 16503

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

Here is a case written by sambb in one of my other threads. Similar examples have appeared in other places. I don't know if anyone had good answers. ***************************** What about the following: Need 100k/year, so desire to have 2.5M (4%) withdrawal. Lets say right now in 2017, i hit 2.5M...
by dspencer
Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1372809

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Anyone who doesn't see the similarity between investing in stocks and gambling should re-acquaint themselves with the meaning of "risk". Expected return is not actual return. Everyone who walks into a casino has a positive expected return and a strategy to realize that return. Everyone who invests ...
by dspencer
Tue Oct 24, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1372809

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I know this market is in for a tumble. Not because it keeps going up, but because it doesn't go down. The dip-buyers can't get in because there are no dips. Just what it did the last times just before it crapped out. Are you short the market? Do you have a time table for this prediction? How much w...
by dspencer
Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 175
Views: 30215

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

What matters is your asset allocation, determined by your risk tolerance. Figure that out (the latter before the former) and then go do something fun. This concept is presented on Bogleheads frequently and with much conviction. Yet it seems to make a difficult and important decision seem almost tri...
by dspencer
Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 169
Views: 11239

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

Basically saying on this day you won so big that it is just best to take your winnings for that day, but only the winnings for that day , and set them aside in a safe fixed income or inflation protected vehicle and thank Mr. Market for the statistical anomaly you have just benefited from. From my s...
by dspencer
Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 169
Views: 11239

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

Selling the instant it goes up 2% in a given day does not seem to be a reliable way to sell high. This is an excellent observation. Since the stock market is expected to go up (otherwise why would we want to invest at all), this idea to sell just because something goes up 2% or 3% or 10% is probabl...
by dspencer
Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 169
Views: 11239

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

One doesn't have to watch anything because your brokerage firm (including Vanguard) will do it for you. Just set an alert to send a message/e-mail to your phone when something is triggered. It really is that easy as long as you look at your phone occasionally. I know, but I am just not interested i...
by dspencer
Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 719
Views: 192158

Re: Share your net worth progression

Just recently started tracking my net worth and reeaaallyy tracking my expenses. Im a physician, still in training, with around 50K in debt (student loan and a car loan). My wife and I got married in April 2016, and so far our DrMoneyTails Family consists of the both of us, the Dog and the Cat. Net...
by dspencer
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Magic of Savings Rate
Replies: 97
Views: 12043

Re: The Magic of Savings Rate

Why does it seem this board is slanted towards the negative? Does it just seem more intelligent to slant towards pessimism or are that large a percentage of well financed individuals generally negative thinkers? I personally find the thought behind MMM to be somewhat motivating. Pretty sure the sav...
by dspencer
Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 33 years old, how am I doing ?
Replies: 54
Views: 9070

Re: 33 years old, how am I doing ?

I had been considering asking for some advice about my personal situation, but this thread makes me reconsider. From a couple of benign posts containing the typical background information it's been determined that the OP is: spoiled, mentally weak, boastful, attention-seeking, immature, socially una...
by dspencer
Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 33 years old, how am I doing ?
Replies: 54
Views: 9070

Re: 33 years old, how am I doing ?

Regarding your asset allocation: I second the suggestion to at least consider VWIUX given your tax bracket. Also worth seeing if there is a state specific tax-exempt bond fund for your state since 10% is a pretty high state income tax. As for your REIT holdings, I don't know that it will really simp...
by dspencer
Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 33 years old, how am I doing ?
Replies: 54
Views: 9070

Re: 33 years old, how am I doing ?

In many ways we are in remarkably similar situations. I'm the same age, married, 18 month old, another on the way, net worth within a rounding error. I am simply astonished that you are able to spend less than $50k per year with high income, a HCOL area and a family. Do you track your spending or is...
by dspencer
Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1372809

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think that part of the "it's only a paper loss" notion comes from the flawed notion that an investor's capital should be in viewed as shares, rather than as dollars. Among many, this also leads to them not wanting to sell shares to generate income, preferring to spend only dividends, because they...
by dspencer
Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1372809

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

It will be interesting to see how this thread and the one that talks about how much people are up YTD evolves when we have a nice healthy plunge in the markets. Just wait for the TLH threads to start appearing again. TLH opportunities and equities on sale = a beautiful thing. Not much in the way of...
by dspencer
Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase
Replies: 120
Views: 8109

Re: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase

I have to say I am very surprised by the overwhelming NO answers. Why save money if can't spend it? Let me rephrase the question and see if the answers will be different: Can OP afford to reduce the saving rate from 60% to 30% for two years? then maybe back up to 40 or 50% afterward? I think the an...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase
Replies: 120
Views: 8109

Re: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase

reallyconfused wrote:I would just go ahead and buy the Tesla. :beer
You beat me to it! If this isn't about buying a Tesla then I am completely befuddled and desperate to know what this one of a kind $70k car is.
by dspencer
Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase
Replies: 120
Views: 8109

Re: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase

If you really want to be safe, make sure the car has some MASS. The new cars today keep getting lighter (which is great for fuel efficiency and the planet), but in a collision do you want your family to be in the 3-year old SUV or the brand-new lightweight sedan? You don't need mass to stay safe. T...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase
Replies: 120
Views: 8109

Re: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase

Nice discussion thus far. Thanks to everyone who has replied. Regarding the questions of which cars/SUVs I'm considering, I don't want to reveal that as it will devolve the discussion into the merits of those cars versus others and whatnot. Regarding how I arrived at these two options, I went to an...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase
Replies: 120
Views: 8109

Re: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase

If you really want to be safe, make sure the car has some MASS. The new cars today keep getting lighter (which is great for fuel efficiency and the planet), but in a collision do you want your family to be in the 3-year old SUV or the brand-new lightweight sedan? You don't need mass to stay safe. T...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 03, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 85/15 too aggressive at age 35?
Replies: 104
Views: 12311

Re: 85/15 too aggressive at age 35?

I'm 36 and plan on being FI by age 55. I'm virtually 100% in equities and plan to continue to be so until age 45, when I'll start moving one year's of retirement spending into bonds or a stable value fund every year until age 55, at which point I'll have a decade of spending safely set aside. Whate...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 03, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens to those who don't save?
Replies: 13
Views: 2200

What happens to those who don't save?

This forum is a self selected group of people who tend to live below their means, often way below. My anecdotal experience and what seems to be backed up by news stories is that this behavior is pretty rare. A large percentage of people are living paycheck to paycheck and often using debt to even ge...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best "investment tip" I have gotten from Bogleheads
Replies: 57
Views: 11569

Re: Best "investment tip" I have gotten from Bogleheads

I had no idea people were so passionate about their oatmeal and its preparation! Recently, I have been eating muesli with yogurt and a bit of milk. I just put the yogurt in the night before and add a little milk in the morning. It doesn't even require a special gadget to cook! The best investment ti...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Building a cabin
Replies: 2
Views: 640

Re: Building a cabin

I have built a cabin, but it was a small log cabin without electricity or running water, so probably not what you are looking for. Have you tried looking at modular/prefab cabins? It might be easier to find pricing that way since they are selling a product rather than providing a custom quote. It is...