Search found 100 matches

by dspencer
Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 175
Views: 25883

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

What matters is your asset allocation, determined by your risk tolerance. Figure that out (the latter before the former) and then go do something fun. This concept is presented on Bogleheads frequently and with much conviction. Yet it seems to make a difficult and important decision seem almost tri...
by dspencer
Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 169
Views: 9239

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

Basically saying on this day you won so big that it is just best to take your winnings for that day, but only the winnings for that day , and set them aside in a safe fixed income or inflation protected vehicle and thank Mr. Market for the statistical anomaly you have just benefited from. From my s...
by dspencer
Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 169
Views: 9239

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

Selling the instant it goes up 2% in a given day does not seem to be a reliable way to sell high. This is an excellent observation. Since the stock market is expected to go up (otherwise why would we want to invest at all), this idea to sell just because something goes up 2% or 3% or 10% is probabl...
by dspencer
Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?
Replies: 169
Views: 9239

Re: Buy on Really Bad Days, Sell on Really Good Days?

One doesn't have to watch anything because your brokerage firm (including Vanguard) will do it for you. Just set an alert to send a message/e-mail to your phone when something is triggered. It really is that easy as long as you look at your phone occasionally. I know, but I am just not interested i...
by dspencer
Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 574
Views: 151451

Re: Share your net worth progression

Just recently started tracking my net worth and reeaaallyy tracking my expenses. Im a physician, still in training, with around 50K in debt (student loan and a car loan). My wife and I got married in April 2016, and so far our DrMoneyTails Family consists of the both of us, the Dog and the Cat. Net...
by dspencer
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Magic of Savings Rate
Replies: 97
Views: 10897

Re: The Magic of Savings Rate

Why does it seem this board is slanted towards the negative? Does it just seem more intelligent to slant towards pessimism or are that large a percentage of well financed individuals generally negative thinkers? I personally find the thought behind MMM to be somewhat motivating. Pretty sure the sav...
by dspencer
Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 33 years old, how am I doing ?
Replies: 54
Views: 8224

Re: 33 years old, how am I doing ?

I had been considering asking for some advice about my personal situation, but this thread makes me reconsider. From a couple of benign posts containing the typical background information it's been determined that the OP is: spoiled, mentally weak, boastful, attention-seeking, immature, socially una...
by dspencer
Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 33 years old, how am I doing ?
Replies: 54
Views: 8224

Re: 33 years old, how am I doing ?

Regarding your asset allocation: I second the suggestion to at least consider VWIUX given your tax bracket. Also worth seeing if there is a state specific tax-exempt bond fund for your state since 10% is a pretty high state income tax. As for your REIT holdings, I don't know that it will really simp...
by dspencer
Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 33 years old, how am I doing ?
Replies: 54
Views: 8224

Re: 33 years old, how am I doing ?

In many ways we are in remarkably similar situations. I'm the same age, married, 18 month old, another on the way, net worth within a rounding error. I am simply astonished that you are able to spend less than $50k per year with high income, a HCOL area and a family. Do you track your spending or is...
by dspencer
Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3972
Views: 1058675

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think that part of the "it's only a paper loss" notion comes from the flawed notion that an investor's capital should be in viewed as shares, rather than as dollars. Among many, this also leads to them not wanting to sell shares to generate income, preferring to spend only dividends, because they...
by dspencer
Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3972
Views: 1058675

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

It will be interesting to see how this thread and the one that talks about how much people are up YTD evolves when we have a nice healthy plunge in the markets. Just wait for the TLH threads to start appearing again. TLH opportunities and equities on sale = a beautiful thing. Not much in the way of...
by dspencer
Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase
Replies: 120
Views: 6430

Re: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase

I have to say I am very surprised by the overwhelming NO answers. Why save money if can't spend it? Let me rephrase the question and see if the answers will be different: Can OP afford to reduce the saving rate from 60% to 30% for two years? then maybe back up to 40 or 50% afterward? I think the an...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase
Replies: 120
Views: 6430

Re: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase

reallyconfused wrote:I would just go ahead and buy the Tesla. :beer
You beat me to it! If this isn't about buying a Tesla then I am completely befuddled and desperate to know what this one of a kind $70k car is.
by dspencer
Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase
Replies: 120
Views: 6430

Re: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase

If you really want to be safe, make sure the car has some MASS. The new cars today keep getting lighter (which is great for fuel efficiency and the planet), but in a collision do you want your family to be in the 3-year old SUV or the brand-new lightweight sedan? You don't need mass to stay safe. T...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase
Replies: 120
Views: 6430

Re: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase

Nice discussion thus far. Thanks to everyone who has replied. Regarding the questions of which cars/SUVs I'm considering, I don't want to reveal that as it will devolve the discussion into the merits of those cars versus others and whatnot. Regarding how I arrived at these two options, I went to an...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase
Replies: 120
Views: 6430

Re: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase

If you really want to be safe, make sure the car has some MASS. The new cars today keep getting lighter (which is great for fuel efficiency and the planet), but in a collision do you want your family to be in the 3-year old SUV or the brand-new lightweight sedan? You don't need mass to stay safe. T...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 03, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 85/15 too aggressive at age 35?
Replies: 104
Views: 10385

Re: 85/15 too aggressive at age 35?

I'm 36 and plan on being FI by age 55. I'm virtually 100% in equities and plan to continue to be so until age 45, when I'll start moving one year's of retirement spending into bonds or a stable value fund every year until age 55, at which point I'll have a decade of spending safely set aside. Whate...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 03, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens to those who don't save?
Replies: 13
Views: 1970

What happens to those who don't save?

This forum is a self selected group of people who tend to live below their means, often way below. My anecdotal experience and what seems to be backed up by news stories is that this behavior is pretty rare. A large percentage of people are living paycheck to paycheck and often using debt to even ge...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best "investment tip" I have gotten from Bogleheads
Replies: 47
Views: 7265

Re: Best "investment tip" I have gotten from Bogleheads

I had no idea people were so passionate about their oatmeal and its preparation! Recently, I have been eating muesli with yogurt and a bit of milk. I just put the yogurt in the night before and add a little milk in the morning. It doesn't even require a special gadget to cook! The best investment ti...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Building a cabin
Replies: 2
Views: 581

Re: Building a cabin

I have built a cabin, but it was a small log cabin without electricity or running water, so probably not what you are looking for. Have you tried looking at modular/prefab cabins? It might be easier to find pricing that way since they are selling a product rather than providing a custom quote. It is...
by dspencer
Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pool Maintenance Savings
Replies: 26
Views: 2063

Re: Pool Maintenance Savings

Any experience with saline pools? I live in the Northeast and the wife and I are thinking of getting one (above ground) I have a salt pool. Best bang for the buck to get Chlorine in the pool. I like my salt pool as well. I love it. Curious as to what the "cons" are? Admittedly I have not looked int...
by dspencer
Tue Aug 01, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pool Maintenance Savings
Replies: 26
Views: 2063

Re: Pool Maintenance Savings

Without a doubt, the most important tool is maintaining a pool is a good test kit. Not the $10.00 one most people have. Use something like a Taylor K-2006. After you get your pool correctly balanced, you don't have to run every test every time but it's important to understand the relationships of e...
by dspencer
Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta
Replies: 24
Views: 3159

Re: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta

It's amazing to me that all these robo-advisors seem to be growing at a very good pace, and it seems that traditional money-management firms are taking it on the chins. I don't know how the latter can survive. I also disagree. There have been a few articles about how robofirms are really burning th...
by dspencer
Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta
Replies: 24
Views: 3159

Re: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta

Instability has been the hallmark of Wealthfront. If I were interested in investing with them I'd be moderately concerned with the number of times they've changed their identity and strategy since they were first created in 2009 as "kaChing." The only constant has been Andy Rachleff. The firm start...
by dspencer
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta
Replies: 24
Views: 3159

Re: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta

what do you mean what changed their minds? its called money. Yeah it seems to me that the primary motivation is marketing. Now they can show a made up chart that shows how much extra money you will make with their proprietary system. In their defense, it seems that some of their criticisms from the...
by dspencer
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top and bottom of AA usefulness
Replies: 19
Views: 1854

Re: Top and bottom of AA usefulness

Depends on how much you spend. For my household, I think we could probably invest $10M in either 100% bonds or 100% stocks and be just fine. Two schools of thought once you have more than enough- don't keep playing when you've already won and now you have money you can afford to risk. Hard to balan...
by dspencer
Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Housing is too expensive.
Replies: 49
Views: 6967

Re: Housing is too expensive.

When I read "job is not secure", the first thought that comes to mind is that this is the perfect opportunity to at least investigation relocating to a lower COL area. Same here. It's a pretty radical suggestion and hard to say whether OP would even remotely consider it. As someone who has only liv...
by dspencer
Tue May 16, 2017 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VNQ vs Crowdedfunded Real Estate
Replies: 18
Views: 1976

Re: VNQ vs Crowdedfunded Real Estate

I don't understand the appeal of some of these newer, alternative investment options. I'm thinking of crowd funding and P2P lending specifically. They're unproven. They're more expensive. They're less transparent. They're less liquid. I read the White Coat Investor blog quite a bit and I really res...
by dspencer
Tue May 16, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VNQ vs Crowdedfunded Real Estate
Replies: 18
Views: 1976

Re: VNQ vs Crowdedfunded Real Estate

I have a couple percent of my investible assets in PeerStreet. It is very hard to gauge the risk. I have some experience with the old-fashioned hard money lending and was satisfied by those results. The good part is that these are loans backed by real estate and so the likelihood of any one loan goi...
by dspencer
Thu May 11, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arbitrage
Replies: 8
Views: 756

Re: Arbitrage

adamthesmythe wrote:Gotta have fast internet. Really fast internet.


Good luck competing with co-located servers and direct fiber optic connections.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news ... lions.html
by dspencer
Wed May 10, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe
Replies: 66
Views: 9014

Re: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe

If supply and demand for funds is all done based on market cap then how would a price get bid up or down? Funds would only need to balance inflows and outflows and would have to buy or sell all funds proportionally to maintain their index. Supply and demand isn't based on market cap at all - it is ...
by dspencer
Wed May 10, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe
Replies: 66
Views: 9014

Re: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe

Every buyer needs a seller - so someone is determining the price. Even if we assume all money is invested to track indexes the people managing that money (and thus executing the trades as needed) will be setting price against someone else on the other end of the trade - why wouldn't those prices be...
by dspencer
Tue May 09, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe
Replies: 66
Views: 9014

Re: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe

Well, in the short term it would barely be a blip. But over the longer term, companies get added and deleted from the Indexes all the time. That would be a way of rewarding or punishing those companies for their behaviors, wouldn't it? And there are lots of indexes, right? With VG we are only expos...
by dspencer
Tue May 09, 2017 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 81
Views: 12754

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

After 30 years of accumulation at the same savings rate, who is likely to have more money saved: the person using 30/70 or 70/30? Certainly having more money as you approach retirement has some psychological benefit, right? 70/30, of course. Using this resource I linked above: m The expected differ...
by dspencer
Tue May 09, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe
Replies: 66
Views: 9014

Re: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jack-bogle-envisions-chaos-catastrophe-markets-everyone-indexed-194610197.html “If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe,” said Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard, at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting on Saturday. “There would be no tra...
by dspencer
Tue May 09, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 81
Views: 12754

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

There is a savings rate where a 30/70 does the trick. It might mean your house is smaller, you cars are less fancy, you work longer than you prefer, it might even mean you have to move or go back to school. But there is a way to do it. Working longer to slightly optimize my Sharpe ratio, which does...
by dspencer
Mon May 08, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe
Replies: 66
Views: 9014

Re: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe

I would be more worried if nearly everyone started using a momentum strategy. It seems like it would take a very high proportion for regular indexing to destroy price discovery. Even in the Boglehead forum there are probably enough members dabbling in speculative stock picking that the market could ...
by dspencer
Fri May 05, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: should i switch my VBTLX into VWIUX (e.g. muni bond fund)? [in taxable]
Replies: 13
Views: 2003

Re: should i switch my VBTLX into VWIUX (e.g. muni bond fund)? [in taxable]

flamesabers wrote:What tax bracket are you in? I think that's a major factor as to which bond fund is more suited to you.


Vanguard even has a tool to make it easier:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... alentyield
by dspencer
Fri May 05, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 16502

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

I just got off a call with Personal Capital who claims that "Tactical Weighting" is better than market-cap weighting of index funds. Essentially make your own "fund" with a basket of stocks that are evenly distributed amongst 10 sectors and also more spread out amongst size (sma...
by dspencer
Thu May 04, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 16502

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

One question: 15 years ago, if you had the option of great competent trustworthy wealth managers that charged 0.50% AUM all-in, would you have gone with one? I have that option now though I'm certainly leaning towards doing it myself. Have these managers told you how they would invest your money? I...
by dspencer
Thu May 04, 2017 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in convertible notes of pre-IPO companies
Replies: 3
Views: 291

Re: Investing in convertible notes of pre-IPO companies

I think this is a very accurate portrayal of the risks associated. I definitely would never do this with monies I felt I couldn't afford to lose totally. Did you feel you were given a very advantaged conversion rate to equity had the companies remained viable? Yes, had things gone well it would hav...
by dspencer
Thu May 04, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prosper.com - Misreporting annualized returns?
Replies: 15
Views: 1854

Re: Prosper.com - Misreporting annualized returns?

So this is sort of a multi-part question but I think this is the place to ask it... For the past 6 years or so I've had a growing amount of capital in prosper.com in C-class loans, which reported to be returning around 12% returns, which tax-adjusted and risk-adjusted felt reasonable. Well, today I...
by dspencer
Thu May 04, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in convertible notes of pre-IPO companies
Replies: 3
Views: 291

Re: Investing in convertible notes of pre-IPO companies

Yes. I can think of two examples off the top of my head. In one case we had a one year loan with the option to convert to equity at maturity. I had a seat on the board as part of the deal and felt that management was being dishonestly optimistic with their projections. We elected not to convert and ...
by dspencer
Wed May 03, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 16502

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

I've done a fair bit of reading/thinking and wondering if I could just start simple: (all in taxable account) 50% VTSAX 50% VWIUX If the stock market declines then I could shift more into stocks, e.g. if it declines 15% then shift to 80/20 What do you think of this allocation/plan? Do I need some i...
by dspencer
Mon May 01, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Robo-advisors vs Vanguard
Replies: 36
Views: 7061

Re: Robo-advisors vs Vanguard

..., but more importantly the information on Vanguard is slow to update and does so inconsistently. Depending on whether I'm looking at my account overview, balances and holdings, or portfolio watch and whether I'm on mobile or not will change what account balance is shown. I notice similar issues ...
by dspencer
Mon May 01, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 16502

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

Ok, suppose I were to start out conservative 50/50 (thinking I'll shift more to stocks IF the market drops), which funds would you recommend? The standard VTSAX and VBMFX? Or maybe a stock fund that produces higher dividends and a bond fund that is tax-free since I need the income? I could be in a ...
by dspencer
Mon May 01, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Robo-advisors vs Vanguard
Replies: 36
Views: 7061

Re: Robo-advisors vs Vanguard

Vanguard could think a little bit about marketing. For instance, their Target Retirement and LifeStrategy funds could have another share class with slightly different names: Robo Retirement and Robo Strategy. Or even Robo Advantage funds. These funds would then pop up in a search and when anybody w...
by dspencer
Tue Apr 25, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Recent transfers to Vanguard, cost-basis success?
Replies: 17
Views: 1410

Re: Recent transfers to Vanguard, cost-basis success?

I recently transferred a taxable account from Betterment to Vanguard. I already had a taxable account at Vanguard with Flagship status. The cost basis information was not automatically transferred. Betterment sent me a .csv (generic spreadsheet) file which contained my cost basis information. I sent...
by dspencer
Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...
Replies: 27
Views: 3853

Re: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...

Thanks for the information. I remember this happening and a financial advisor I know was one of the people advising his clients to switch to the Janus fund since that's where the magic would be now. Maybe it's comparing apples to oranges given the nature of his fund, but certainly he seems to be lac...
by dspencer
Wed Apr 05, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why ETFs Won’t Replace Mutual Funds"
Replies: 17
Views: 2476

Re: "Why ETFs Won’t Replace Mutual Funds"

In taxable, the additional control ETFs give you WRT realizing capital gains and losses is invaluable. Indeed; I know I have said this about 10 times now but ETFs allowed me to harvest my capital gains on, e.g., VTI (total stock market) last December without needing to switch funds. Well worth the ...