Bogleheads.org

Why does this thread still exist? Has it not run its course? The thread allows for ongoing discussion and commentary without forum members creating new threads every time they wish to opine. This sort of thing is common on discussion forums. Then why not create a pinned thread called "Open thread about the state of the US Stock Market", instead of just keeping alive this zombie thread with a misleading title? Talk about delayed responses (I also don't visit this forum much anymore). The title is either accurate or ironic depending on what is happening. I don't think it's meant to be taken literally or seriously enough to be characterized as "misleading." But also just my opinion and hardly worth debating further on my e...

For what it's worth, I am, in a manner of speaking, "in the industry" and I have zero interest in whether someone wrote their own resume or had it done professionally. What's important is that the resume clearly communicates (as much as this can be accomplished on paper) what the candidate offers and that they understand the job in question. I don't a second thought as to whether they wrote the resume themselves or what kind of resources they might have used to produce it.

Whatever level of assistance you are thinking of utilizing, if that gives you the confidence to move forward and put yourself out there, my vote would be to go for it. I'm willing to bet you can do a fine job on your own.

I grew up in a small town and sort of understand the concern, but do you think the local folks are really going to harass you that much? I think most would get over it pretty quickly and move on to whatever other thing locals like to be indignant about. I don't know that trying to argue the finer points of whether these businesses are "local" will get you anywhere with your neighbors. If I really felt I owed anyone an explanation, my response would be something like: "I do best to support local business whenever and wherever I can. When it comes to my retirement and financial security my first and only loyalty is to myself and my family." If someone wants to argue with that, let them sound foolish and you move on with yo...

I tried watching The Expanse on Prime after seeing it recommended. I bailed within the first 15 min. It surprised me because: 1) I rarely bail on a show that quickly and, 2) based on what I had read about the show I expected to like it. I don't know...the vibe just didn't grab me.

Into Season 3 of Bosch now.

bloom2708 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:52 pm I'm not sure if this counts.

We live where the weather is bad all but 3-4 months of the year. It is a low cost of living area. We make a decent income. Most days we suffer through terrible weather. I guess it is partly because of being frugal/saving for retirement. Partly because I can't convince anyone to leave.

Probably not the spirit of the original ask, but darn we suffer through some things for long periods of time for somewhat unknown reasons.

I would say this definitely counts. I don't think I could do it.

For the most part I am willing to pay for convenience. Life presents enough challenges without having a load of preventable daily frustrations on top of it.

The only recent example I can think of is that I kept using a pair of running shoes for far too long before getting a new pair for Christmas from my wife.

The only other possible example I can think of is that I tend to be a late adopter of a lot of the technology and automation that supposedly makes one's life easier. My reluctance is partly money-related but also due to disinterest and a skepticism that these things will really add value in my life.

JoMoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm I seem to be the only one complaining about the upside "volatility"
Where's the circuit breaker !?!?!

I'm with you. It's probably a bad sign.

KnowNth wrote: ↑Wed Dec 26, 2018 1:44 pm That when market drops, bogleheads surprisingly generate lots of noise as well.

Indeed.

livesoft wrote: ↑Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:03 am I ran the dishwasher when it was only one-third full.

And there I was at Christmas, vowing to have more faith in my fellow persons only to come home and read this.

Scooter57 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:16 pm Got the guitar out. Been singing. Going to hoist these old bones up on a stage in a few months, do some open mics, and show these young kids a thing or two.

Do it! My dad (70 yo) has played guitar for decades, has a good singing voice, and finally mustered the nerve a few years ago to do some open mics. Now he's booked as a regular performer at a local winery and has been invited to play at parties and other gigs. In the process he met a fellow retiree who is a bassist looking to play again. So now my dad not only has a playing partner but also made a new friend.

Good luck to you.

Warren Buffet always says he likes getting a good deal on companies he buys, and now is the time for all of us! Dumping a bunch of money into stock index funds while the going is good and cheap!! Anyone else investing more now??? I'm not exactly dancing in the streets, but I'm going to play devil's advocate here and stand up for the original poster. This is an interesting forum in that it teaches helpful information about not panicking when the market drops, about being greedy when others are fearful, unsustainable growth not being something to get excited about, buying stocks on sale, etc. Then, when someone basically says, "ok, I got it! There's been a correction or a bear market, and rather than panic, I can actually see the good i...

DanMahowny wrote: ↑Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:28 pm Dan Mahowny family will watch Christmas Vacation this evening.

It's our Christmas Eve tradition.

This is going to happen in about five minutes here...

A great family movie we just saw was Mary Poppins Returns . It was very much in the style of the first movie, and very nostalgic for my wife and me. A very upbeat, positive movie. My little sister won 20 tickets and $200 in concessions at her employer's Christmas party, so she took us all Saturday. Definitely not my cup of tea, but it was OK. My wife enjoyed it (she's pretty much a human version of Mary Poppins and looks a lot like Emily Blunt) and the kids thought it was fun. Like almost everything coming out these days, nothing new or creative whatsoever; follows the exact same formula as the original. I haven’t seen the new version but if it’s so similar one wonders what the point was in making it, besides the obvious money angle. The o...

And yes these posts have become annoying. Part of it is the cheerful sentiment, that erosion of wealth is somehow a positive. This is confusing to me because anyone investing is ultimately hoping for that investment to grow. I agree on both accounts. It's turning into quite a tired cliche on this forum. I'm handling the market drop just fine, but I seem to be missing whatever gene causes one to be happy in these situations. Yes, in a strict manner of speaking I "prefer" to buy shares at current price rather than at previous high, but that's only because it happens to be how things turned out. I have no control over what the market does, and my money goes in at the same time regardless. If that means I buy cheaper at some times co...

heartwood wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:06 pm Brandi Carlile, By The Way, I Forgive You

Listened to this one in its entirety for the first time tonight. Pretty good. Some beautiful instrumental work.

Seems like the analogy is serving more as a distraction than a support for the premise.

So, I hate to be the "don't do it" guy because I know that isn't what you're asking for, but it sounds like you're adding just for the sake of adding? Surely there is something more you hope to get from it other than "intellectual curiosity," as you put it. I would think that any recommendation you're given is just going to be random unless you have a more clearly defined objective for adding a fund.

I'm in my mid-thirties and already concerned enough about being pigeon-holed in my field that I am looking to shift gears.

Financially, I can't get far enough away from zero fast enough.

randydimera wrote: ↑Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:23 pm Hey all, this year I put my 5500 dollars in for the first time ever in a target date retirement fund. I am wondering if since the market is down pretty bad these days, if I should put my max contribution in the first of the year to get it done with. I am 24 years old and I do have enough money lieing around to do this. Wondering what you guys think. Maybe half now and half midway in the year? Or is it always better for long term gains to put it in sooner rather than later?

Thanks much

What would keep you from putting it in at once, and what, specifically, are you concerned about?

InvestInLife wrote: ↑Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:58 pm

Woodshark wrote: ↑Sat Dec 22, 2018 5:16 pm During 2007, 2008 I was younger and 100% in stock funds.

I was younger in 2007-08 also.

Sure - anyone can claim such a thing as an anonymous person on the Internet.

Scooter57 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 22, 2018 6:08 pm Hence the idea I often see here, "I wont need that money for 30 years" may be quite mistaken. And that doesnt even get into the carnage wreaked by an unexpected diagnosis, an accident, or the birth of a child with a health issie that requires a parent's presence 24/7.

This is true, but to what extent does one account for all of the possibilities of what can go wrong while still investing for the future? A scenario where I make it to my later years in one piece is important for me to plan for as well. How conservative of an allocation does this argue for? I think about this sort of thing and don't have a great answer other than that at some point I must accept I've done what I can and hope for the best.

I don't use Fidelity so I don't know about the transaction fee, but Vanguard's Tax-Managed Small Cap fund has thus far performed well for its class.

Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: ↑Sat Dec 22, 2018 4:23 pm i think your missing what i mean.. and what i'm suggesting is definitely not a boglehead move.

i mean deciding that one's bond allocation is really just dry powder and turning this into a texas holdem game, and going all in.

aka.. instead of deciding in a bull market "why not 100% stocks", deciding to do it when the house is on fire around you.

Not sure why you would conflate such behavior with machismo or having "balls of steel" or whatever.

So, really, people are making themselves sound like they are much bigger risk takers than they really are. If one has the continuing comfort of a salary, a pension waiting, a paid-for house, etc., then being 100% is stocks is really not as big a risk. Of course they can easily withstand a 20-30% downward swing in their portfolio as they do not rely upon it for live. Personally, being post-salary and pre-retirement (having retired at a young age), I do rely completely upon my portfolio for all aspects of financial existence including living expenses. I would never consider the 100% equities path. So I think it is important for people not to glibly state that they are 90% or 100% or whatever level equities without putting it within a risk co...

Why are we just assuming that all of these people are now suddenly running for cover?

typical.investor wrote: ↑Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:53 pm

vineviz wrote: ↑Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:17 pm m is always helpful, but target volatility isn’t exactly a strategy whose results can be arbitraged away or crowded out. It won’t always help , and might sometimes hurt, but that won’t have anything to do with how popular it is.

I don't believe that is true.

When low-volatility stocks have value exposure, on average they outperformed the market by 2.0 percent; when low-volatility stocks have growth exposure, they have underperformed by 1.4 percent on average.

As long as the fund doesn't have a stated goal of outperforming the market (and it shouldn't), I don't see a problem with this.

2015 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:33 am Excellent.
Those who prepared well in advance for worst case scenarios by securing a lifeboat are unconcerned while the Titanic sinks. They might be thinking "I told you so" to the overconfident who got caught in the rainstorm without so much as an umbrella as a result of wasting so much time reading every blog, new study, latest pronouncement by an academic, "distinguished" author, the "good guys", etc.

Why stop at thinking "I told you so?" Why not point and laugh? Why not also kick a little mud on them while they're down?

I mean, if we're going to be haughty and disdainful about it, why not go all out?

Grt2bOutdoors wrote: ↑Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:42 pmWhere are the posters who say they are holding 90/10 funds? Lately, they've been keeping quiet, surprised they aren't banging the drum to buy the dip?

Hi.

I don't bang drums. Never said a word about "buy the dip." That happens to be one of the "-isms" on this forum that I find to be overwrought and slightly obnoxious.

But anyway, is there something you wanted to ask me?

Just began Season 3 of Narcos. Will be interested to see how this season holds up given how Season 2 ended.

Here’s the sequence of returns of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Inv from 2009 to 2017: +28.70%, +17.09%, +0.96%, +16.25%, +33.35%, +12.43%, +0.29%, +12.53%, +21.05% 9 years of positive returns. Not a single down year since 2009. Granted, we were coming off a historic market drop, but we have become very accustomed to continued good news year after year. That’s not how things usually work. Stocks have risk - it’s pretty unrealistic to not experience some drops. Total Stock Index is down this YTD @ -6.86%. It was bound to happen sooner or later, so I can’t say I am all that surprised. I still don’t love it, but I understand this is pretty normal behavior so I am a long way from freaking out. This sums up my attitude nicely. We've had a g...

LiterallyIronic wrote: ↑Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:31 pm

brokenrecord wrote: ↑Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:19 pm

tmcc wrote: ↑Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:16 pm The market is down? lol i dont look at that.

I bet that’s not true

It happens every time someone posts "the market is up big time!" or "the market is tanking!". A number of people feel the need to post "Oh, really, I didn't notice" as if they're trying to impress someone with their alleged aloofness.

That's an eye roll for me as well. You can't visit this forum and not have a general sense of how the market is doing. I mean, look at the front page of this subsection of the forum. Does that not scream "THE MARKET IS DOING THINGS!"

michaeljmroger wrote: ↑Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:25 pm

munemaker wrote: ↑Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:09 pm

michaeljmroger wrote: ↑Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:07 pm I lost $85,000 of new money invested 15 days ago. At this point it doesn't matter anymore if I'm "comfortable" with my asset allocation, this is a serious loss by any standard.

I suggest it is not a loss until you realize it by selling.

That's a theoretical and unrealistically distant view of money I worked extremely hard to gain. I very much see that as a dreadful loss.

I think it's probably pointless for anyone to try to tell you to not feel bad about that kind of drop. But are you going to do anything?

LiterallyIronic wrote: ↑Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:10 pm Indeed. Mid-30s. Fresh out of school in 2008. Couldn't get a job. Nothing to invest. Missed the ensuing run-up.

Similar boat here in mid-thirties. Was more concerned at the time with just getting by. Felt like I had a late start to everything and still dealing with the impact.

People are really getting into the weeds, comparing day-by-day performance of US vs Ex-US. Seems like some folks are looking for anything at this point.

jstatton wrote: ↑Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:02 pm international (VEU, VXUS) and emerging markets (VWO) are holding up very nicely in this latest downturn in the market. As i am writing this (12/20/2018) VWO is up .8% on the day... During a big down day.

IS the tide suddenly turning making international a safe haven relative to expensive US assets?

Are you just basing this off of today? VXUS and VWO have both performed miserably this year. Whether this is some turning of the tide is anyone's guess. I would hope that VXUS and VWO have a better year ahead of them, regardless of US.

What is special or different about today?

Crushtheturtle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:40 pm

Hector wrote: ↑Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:38 pm

Crushtheturtle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:59 pm International diversification for the win!

Foreign markets are down 20-25% from the top as well. How is that for the win right now?

I meant today! This is the beginning of the ex-US rally!

Yeah, let's see that sustained for a few years. My portfolio is begging for it.

Viz - how does one determine their "comfort level" of target volatility under this concept? (I'm actually thinking more from the perspective of an accumulator here)

Meh. There's nothing more subjective than "best" music. Everyone has different tastes. I don't force my friends to listen to my faves, and they shouldn't really care what my faves are. Neither should anyone here, frankly. Post #3. My over/under was on post #5. I actually like to hear what others think is "good". Yes, subjective. There are so many artists/albums you can never discover these days without some type of help. Best to just not open the thread with a title you don't like. :? Agreed. As someone with eclectic and wide-ranging tastes I'm always on the lookout for new music. Most recommendations end up being a miss, but to me it's worth it to explore. Music is a significant part of my life. And nobody is "for...

petulant wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:54 pm

MJW wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:48 pm

indexlover wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:40 pm
Isn't this forum a place for intellectual curiosity.....

That depends on who you ask. Results may vary.

Shots fired!

Lol.. I don’t think it’s that controversial. This forum tends to be a mixed bag when it comes to tolerance of intellectual curiosity. Makes sense given the size of the membership.

indexlover wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:40 pm
Isn't this forum a place for intellectual curiosity.....

That depends on who you ask. Results may vary.

[Moved into a new thread from: U.S. stocks in free fall --admin LadyGeek] Been investing the max allowed by tax law in my 401 k in a total stock market index fund all my working life. I slept through 2008, doing what I have always been doing. Didn't sell anything and kept up the monthly purchases. Was 100% in that fund until the middle of this year when I turned 50. Changed my AA to 75% equities (85% of that in the same index fund I always had and 15% in an international index fund) and 25% cash (with the intention that I will plow some of that into an appropriately chosen bond fund or mix of bond funds; haven't picked the bond funds yet). New money going in is also with the same AA. I intend to retire at 67. With the market down turn now ...

Doom&Gloom wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:08 pm When life hands you unicorns, make glue.

Seems like maybe a good time to stock some unicorn meat in the freezer..

letsgobobby wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:50 pm

Tamalak wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:45 pm Everyone look quick, ex-us is up while us is down. It's like spotting a unicorn..

Be hopeful. This is the beginning of a ten year trend!

I would be happy with three at this point. Something. Anything.

fujiters wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:28 pm

MJW wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:03 pm In an occasional moment of laziness, I have contemplated driving the 30 min from my house to cross the border to a state where someone else pumps your gas for you. Not sure that is being frugal or cheap, but pumping gas is, to me, one of those most mind-numbingly banal activities in which one can partake.

I have yet to actually follow through on this.

Driving is one of those mind numbing activities for me. Boggles my mind you'd even think about driving over an hour round trip to avoid 3 minutes of pump holding.

Well, obviously it is illogical, which is why I haven't done it. My post was mostly tongue-in-cheek.

In an occasional moment of laziness, I have contemplated driving the 30 min from my house to cross the border to a state where someone else pumps your gas for you. Not sure that is being frugal or cheap, but pumping gas is, to me, one of those most mind-numbingly banal activities in which one can partake.

I have yet to actually follow through on this.

I can’t help but think we give the market too much credit when we apply the word “wisdom” to collective investor behavior. There are plenty of times when the market just seems to act like a big, dumb monolith. My philosophy as an investor has been that the market just is what it is and attempting to rationalize its behavior is a pointless endeavor. The matter of whether or not I think I can outguess the market is not reliant upon the notion that it is somehow wise or knowing.

Dude2 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:00 am Yea, sure, solid track records...

viewtopic.php?t=61209

Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2010 3:07 pm

Munir wrote: Hi Taylor: Can what happened to US Growth be used as an argument against "staying the course"?

Hi Munir:

It is more of an argument against managed funds. Index fund investors are not subject to manager changes, style drift or serious under-performance like happened to US Growth.

US Growth has outperformed Vang500 from 2008 to present, though not by a wide margin.

It does seem like Vanguard has a handful of redundant/overlapping actively managed funds that could be culled from the herd.

JoMoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:34 am

samsoes wrote: ↑Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:09 am This thread needs to be euthanized.

This is one of the most active threads... besides, if you killed it, it would just create a dozen more with the same generic topic about whatever particular direction things are going.

Exactly. We're already seeing a bunch of "OMG this market!" threads popping up as it is. Hopefully this one is helping to keep that number down.

My solution to threads/topics that do not interest me is to not click on them.

Wow, I hope I'm able to see this at some point.