Search found 380 matches

by WildBill
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today
Replies: 49
Views: 3222

Re: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today

Howdy

GE goes into the “too hard to figure out” pile for me. I only invest in individual stocks if I am convinced there is compelling value.

I cannot decipher GE’s financials (a lot of people at GE seem to be having the same problem)
so I am ignoring it as an investment.

Happy stockpicking

W B
by WildBill
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Property - Keep, sell or refinance
Replies: 20
Views: 1224

Re: Rental Property - Keep, sell or refinance

Howdy Negative cash flow and it looks like minimal potential for appreciation/continuing depreciation in value. Some potential hassles with tenants and repairs. No brainer. Sell it ASAP as it is a liability every day you continue to own it. You probably have a breakeven tax wise as the decrease in b...
by WildBill
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling Small Business
Replies: 4
Views: 380

Re: Selling Small Business

Howdy Not enough info. If you have a proprietary product or long term contracts in place you can estimate it as some multiple of revenue. Otherwise the only prospective buyer would be one who could run it as you have, as the only value is in the services that you provide to the customers and their t...
by WildBill
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Transition after Military
Replies: 13
Views: 1111

Re: Career Transition after Military

Hello BH, I'm an avid reader of the site but am looking for some advice and general guidance on transitioning from the military in a little less than three years. Background: Army officer with a BS in Finance from a large state school in the PAC-12. I'm planning on completing my initial commitment ...
by WildBill
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking ideas for relaxing but not boring vacation
Replies: 19
Views: 1451

Re: Seeking ideas for relaxing but not boring vacation

Howdy

These tick the boxes

Vancouver

Portugal

Argentina

Albuquerque/Taos/Santa Fe

Carlsbad/Sedona/Grand Canyon/Flagstaff

Have fun
W B
by WildBill
Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 14188

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

TBH, I'm surprised that not many share the same opinion as you. My guess is that this thread is biased against ppl like you. People may not say "No, I'm not going to pay for my kid's college" for fear of getting criticized by others. My parents told me they would not pay for my college and they did...
by WildBill
Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 14188

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

Howdy We are paying full freight for both sons at very good and very expensive private schools. Getting close to the end. We got lucky with timing in 529 plans and the plans will have some residue for hypothetical grandchildren. I funded them heavily with equities in 2009 and 2010. Although the cost...
by WildBill
Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hiking vacation in November - any recomendations?
Replies: 35
Views: 1997

Re: Hiking vacation in November - any recomendations?

Howdy As several folks have said, Big Bend is just about perfect in November. Another idea is the Bay Area in California. You can stay in Mountain View or Cupertino and have dozens of excellent day hikes within a short drive - Big Basin Redwoods, Portola, Sanborn Park, Monte Bello, Stevens Creek, Pu...
by WildBill
Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Needed appraisal of farm land?
Replies: 18
Views: 1097

Re: Needed appraisal of farm land?

Why a waste of money at this point? I may sell it at some point. Yes, that not for sure. I could die first or give it away. Do you think appraisals will be cheaper some day? What it's worth now and what it's worth when you go to sell it years from now could be two very different numbers. Why would ...
by WildBill
Mon Jul 16, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in oil?
Replies: 13
Views: 961

Re: Investing in oil?

Howdy Check out PEO. It is a diversified closed end fund invested in the oil industry. It is run by Adams Express, which is a decent outfit. Expense ratio is about 0.4%, unusually low for a closed end fund. Usually sells at a discount to NAV, so reinvestment of dividends gives you a slight kicker on...
by WildBill
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16157

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Real estate is unique in that it is one of the few businesses where you can use leverage to invest in a potentially appreciating asset. Wildbill, I've appreciated your posts & insight. Would you clarify the above statement? Seems to me that someone could use leverage to invest in stocks also. Howev...
by WildBill
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16157

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

It surprises me, that on this forum direct real estate is not looked at as another way to diversify one's portfolio and is being criticized so often. I don’t think this forum is particularly anti real estate. Yeah, I think it's maybe just anti claims of things like routine 38.75% returns via owning...
by WildBill
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16157

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Wildbill wrote; You include “principal paydown by tenant” as part of your return, but that is false. You pay the mortgage. The tenant pays you rent. You are double counting. Wildbill, I agree that the mortgage is negative cashflow, but if you look at total return, I really think that you have to co...
by WildBill
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16157

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

From a prior post, so I don't have to write it out again: Buy a property at $100K, $20K down. Monthly rents of $900-$950. I personally buy in markets with 6-8% long term appreciation, but lets be very conservative and use the general longer-term real estate appreciation value across the entire U.S....
by WildBill
Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bike helmets
Replies: 82
Views: 4766

Re: bike helmets

Howdy OK Back to slipshod. Do the “studies” account for frequency or per metric risk. No. I am only impressed by statistical evidence relevant to the argument. Occupational hazard of being a nerd petrophysicist. Here is the WBCSRAP (Wild Bill Common Sense Risk Adjusted Profile :twisted: ) I have spe...
by WildBill
Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you own just 5% of anything?
Replies: 65
Views: 4934

Re: Do you own just 5% of anything?

Howdy

AMAT is about 7% of my portfolio. I did not intend for it to be, it just happened because I bought it at a good time and it has appreciated over a number of years. Reducing it would entail significant capital gains taxes.

Sometimes stuff just happens.

W B
by WildBill
Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bike helmets
Replies: 82
Views: 4766

Re: bike helmets

Howdy Sorry to be blunt, but you are asking me to defend a straw man statement that you have set up by citing the article. “The risk for head injuries are more common in car accidents than in bicycle accidents.” Says who? On what basis, and under what circumstances? On a per mile basis? On a damage ...
by WildBill
Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend a vehicle for $24,000 or less
Replies: 47
Views: 3897

Re: Recommend a vehicle for $24,000 or less

Yep. More like $19500.

W B
by WildBill
Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bike helmets
Replies: 82
Views: 4766

Re: bike helmets

Howdy No worries. I stated my opinion on the article as in my view it was ill-reasoned gibberish. It doesn’t seem that we disagree about much. Nothing I said or intimated was intended to be offensive, and if it was my apologies. It is my reaction to bad writing and slipshod reasoning in the article ...
by WildBill
Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bike helmets
Replies: 82
Views: 4766

Re: bike helmets

Howdy

Maybe I should also wear one in bed, as a contingency against falling out of bed, or my wife punting me up beside the head. She is a restless sleeper.

Setting up a false dilemma or false equivalence to justify stupidity is a trick as old as the hills. Give it a rest.

W B
by WildBill
Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bike helmets
Replies: 82
Views: 4766

Re: bike helmets

This is a great article about bike helmets written by a grad student. The title is “Why It Makes Sense to Bike Without a Helmet” http://www.howiechong.com/journal/2014/2/bike-helmets Howdy I read it. Gibberish to support the writer’s apparent dislike of helmets. Reasoning unworthy of a prospective ...
by WildBill
Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: home buying question
Replies: 7
Views: 923

Re: home buying question

Howdy

In my experience close attention to my wife’s opinion has been invaluable.

In this case I think she has nailed it. What’s the hurry.

W B
by WildBill
Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car dealerships offering (included) lifetime warranties?
Replies: 13
Views: 1508

Re: New car dealerships offering (included) lifetime warranties?

Howdy Hyundai Sonata Hybrid bought in 2013 has full lifetime warranty for original owner on all drive train components, including engine, transmission, batteries, regenerative braking and electric motors. The real deal. Now at 80K miles on second set of tires and only maintenance periodic oil change...
by WildBill
Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What’s your plan for a market downturn?
Replies: 114
Views: 9746

Re: What’s your plan for a market downturn?

Howdy

As in the past, I will stock up on whatever is on sale.

W B
by WildBill
Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I cancel my Colorado trip due to wildfires??
Replies: 19
Views: 1916

Re: Should I cancel my Colorado trip due to wildfires??

Howdy Go and have fun, as everyone says get local information updated regularly. Colorado has great places to visit and easy to change plans. One highlight was visiting the Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park near Montrose. Not many places like it in the world. If you get to Montrose definite...
by WildBill
Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you learning or studying?
Replies: 99
Views: 7348

Re: What are you learning or studying?

Perhaps my favorite educational moment was in college, the last day of a Quantum Mechanics course, when the Professor said, Just between us, this is all bunk. Yep. Quantum mechanics is a mess, and physics has been a mess for a hundred years. I remember sitting in class thinking “ You have got to be...
by WildBill
Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Business valuation opinions
Replies: 17
Views: 1288

Re: Business valuation opinions

Howdy

Valuation is pretty tough, as the business depends on you and your partner.

Beats me why you would want to sell it. It is very valuable to you and your partner, much less so to an outside buyer.

How about one of you buying the other out?

W B
by WildBill
Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 10075

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

3CT_Paddler wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:19 pm

Buying real estate based on speculative price appreciation is much more risky IMO vs buying based on good cap rates. If the cap rates are not there, don't buy.
Howdy

Yep. This sums it up.

W B
by WildBill
Wed Jun 27, 2018 12:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timing exit from megacorp
Replies: 54
Views: 5982

Re: Timing exit from megacorp

Howdy 1 - Do not give up on the RIF/severance path. Some artful maneuvering and changing circumstances may bring it to pass. Worth considering and definitely worth a try. 2 - If your 401K allows after tax contributions, in the last half year make large after tax contributions up to the maximum limit...
by WildBill
Wed Jun 27, 2018 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 10075

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

Howdy I have been and still am an investor in both real estate and securities, including index funds, individual stocks and various flavors of bonds. My experience in making money with real estate over 40 years is that: Purchases of raw land can produce substantial capital gains, generally in line ...
by WildBill
Tue Jun 26, 2018 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 10075

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

If you had bought in Southern California in 1989, you would in most cases not have seen your house return to the price you bought it at for almost 10 years. Meanwhile, your stock portfolio (S&P500) would have more than tripled. And in the middle of this, around 1992-4, you would be under your origi...
by WildBill
Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio
Replies: 21
Views: 2837

Re: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio

Howdy

I of course follow the historically sound and mathematically proven “square number” asset allocation strategy.

Equities 64%, 8x8

Fixed income 36%, 6x6

Foreign equities 25% of equity allocation, of course 5x5

Happy numerology :moneybag 8-)

W B
by WildBill
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best tips for starting a new job
Replies: 19
Views: 1364

Re: Best tips for starting a new job

Howdy

Ears open. Mouth shut.

W B
by WildBill
Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Houston Safety
Replies: 13
Views: 1320

Re: Houston Safety

Howdy

Texans are overwhelmingly warm, friendly and polite people, which is a very good thing as over a million of them have licenses to carry concealed firearms. This is a sizable percentage of the adult population.

Leave the bazooka at home and behave yourself. 8-)

W B
by WildBill
Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
Replies: 304
Views: 41384

Re: Good Modern Science Fiction

Howdy

Do not miss Seveneves. It is excellent.

Now Anathem is my second favorite of Stephenson’s books, instead of my top favorite.

Happy reading

W B
by WildBill
Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Renter Insurance for Collage student living in Dorm?
Replies: 6
Views: 684

Re: Renter Insurance for Collage student living in Dorm?

Howdy

We would have skipped it, but it turned out that in order to store stuff in the storage area in his dorm for the summer renter’s insurance was required. So we bought it. Something to consider.

W B
by WildBill
Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: is Having more and needing less normal?
Replies: 113
Views: 8922

Re: is Having more and needing less normal?

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:44 am
WildBill wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:18 am
I absolutely do not give a s*** what other people think.
Personally I don't consider that a virtue, more of a rationalization.
If you say so. Just recycle my previous statement re your observation :happy
by WildBill
Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel advice for an engineer
Replies: 65
Views: 4459

Re: Travel advice for an engineer

Howdy

One more - Museum of Computer Science in Mountain View, Ca. Self explanatory.

W B
by WildBill
Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel advice for an engineer
Replies: 65
Views: 4459

Re: Travel advice for an engineer

Howdy

Thought of another one.

If you are in Boston go by the Harvard Science Center. They have a museum of scientific and engineering instruments on the first floor, with the remains of the ENIAC computer and a history of its development in the lobby. Very good stuff.

W B
by WildBill
Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel advice for an engineer
Replies: 65
Views: 4459

Re: Travel advice for an engineer

Howdy You are my kind of guy. Off the top of my head - Hoover Dam. Erie Canal - read Peter Bernstein’s book first. Brooklyn Bridge - read David Mcculloughs book the Great Bridge first. Woolworth Building in NYC. Frank Woolworth built the tallest building in the world ( at that time) with cash money ...
by WildBill
Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: is Having more and needing less normal?
Replies: 113
Views: 8922

Re: is Having more and needing less normal?

Howdy

Blue jeans, t shirts and cargo shorts make for a timeless and comprehensive wardrobe. :happy

Shoes are optional. Maybe a jacket for cold weather.

My dressing code suits me and I absolutely do not give a s*** what other people think.

Happy dressing up for those who like it.

W B
by WildBill
Thu May 31, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need some advice in regards to A/C System
Replies: 29
Views: 1715

Re: Need some advice in regards to A/C System

Howdy You have gotten lots of good advice, but some of it is ambiguous. ACs are not rocket science. An AC system is basically a refrigerator. How often does your refrigerator require servicing? The only “servicing” a modern AC system should require is indoor filter changes, keeping the outside unit ...
by WildBill
Thu May 31, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to buy commodities (soybeans)
Replies: 16
Views: 1897

Re: How to buy commodities (soybeans)

Howdy

If you are really interested in learning about commodities, buy a couple of bean contracts. You will learn very, very fast.

That’s what I did, and I learned a lot, including a conviction to not do it again.

Happy contango

W B
by WildBill
Wed May 30, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: physical real estate as safe money
Replies: 11
Views: 1695

Re: physical real estate as safe money

I have a question concerning rental property that is paid for ( no mortgage). I have a portfolio based on liability matching school of thought. If I use the value of the property within the total portfolio, what percent of value of the property could be used as safe money or expense floor? This is ...
by WildBill
Wed May 30, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need some advice in regards to A/C System
Replies: 29
Views: 1715

Re: Need some advice in regards to A/C System

Howdy Excellent advice from livesoft. Reading your post my impression is that the guy is attempting to sell you a bunch of stuff you don’t need. The best investment you could probably make at the moment for cleaning up the system, if it does indeed actually need it, is changing the filters a couple ...
by WildBill
Wed May 30, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein - CD + Treasuries + Munis VS Vanguard Total Bond ??
Replies: 14
Views: 2108

Re: Bernstein - CD + Treasuries + Munis VS Vanguard Total Bond ??

LMPs are an absurd notion for individual investors. This article contains only some of the reasons why: https://medium.com/@justusjp/liability-matching-portfolios-have-a-20-failure-rate-27b7300dcbdd Howdy Thanks for the article. The main objections the writer has to seem to be that there exist a wi...
by WildBill
Fri May 25, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Heart rate monitor
Replies: 12
Views: 1565

Re: Heart rate monitor

Best deal I have seen on the Slice is about $45 from REI, which I saw after I bought mine from Amazon for $69. So I bought two more for my sons. That was timely. My two year old Mio Fuse just died, so I picked up a Slice on closeout at REI. Not impressed by the PAI thing, but that's not why I use a...
by WildBill
Wed May 23, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Heart rate monitor
Replies: 12
Views: 1565

Re: Heart rate monitor

Howdy MIO Slice. I have had mine for about 4 months now and I like it very much. I cannot speak about long term reliability - so far my experience is based on daily usage for four months - so far so good. I bought it based on a number of reviews. The accuracy is good - plus or minus 1 or 2 bpm vs my...
by WildBill
Tue May 08, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to handle problem employee
Replies: 84
Views: 6060

Re: How to handle problem employee

Howdy Common issue, almost universal. She is delegating her work upward to you. Invert the process. Instead of spending time a lot of time getting bogged down in discussing the whichness of what and how we did it in the good old days at wherever, objectively lay out the goals and objectives - that i...