Search found 1074 matches

by Engineer250
Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Fund v. Treasury Bill/Bond & Yield Question
Replies: 2
Views: 451

Treasury Fund v. Treasury Bill/Bond & Yield Question

Hi I have what I think is a fairly straightforward question but I can't find seem to find the answer in my searching of the internet. So my understanding of a bond and its relationship to its yield is that the price of the bond will go down as the yield goes up (understand this may not always be a perfect relationship where bond funds are concerned). So if we are thinking about a "rising rate environment" (not trying to predict the future, just trying to understand the relationship): if treasury rates go up, I understand that would mean future treasury bill/bond prices will go down. How does this behave with treasury funds/ETFs? Let's say I buy VGSH (Short-Term Treasury ETF) today. Current SEC yield as estimated by Vanguard over t...
by Engineer250
Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New era for TSP "I" Fund?
Replies: 121
Views: 20240

Re: New era for TSP "I" Fund?

Wondering if anyone has an update on what's going on with this? Wish this wasn't taking 3 years to implement or facing the obstacles it seems to be.
by Engineer250
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651540

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Yes certainly not a bad thing for those of us accumulating. I bought $200k yesterday and today. Still sitting on a ton of cash but not in any hurry with the news trending the way it is. We're at the same price as Dec. 2019 - why would you not have bought then, but bought today? Yeah, we never get answers to these questions. Actually, pesos answered this question further up the thread.... apparently, (s)he had a one-off cash infusion that was out of his control regarding timing (so far, it sounds like he has fortunate timing). :beer I did a 401k transfer (as a result of changing jobs) when Brexit got voted in. They withdrew all my money, the US market dropped by 7% if I recall, I bought back in, and it went back up. Sadly my 401k at the tim...
by Engineer250
Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Engineers - What are you making? ($$$)
Replies: 357
Views: 54068

Re: Engineers - What are you making? ($$$)

MechEng, 9 years, $120k, HCOL, 45-70 hours a week depending, nights and weekends sometimes, no overtime, good benefits, stable industry and I don’t have to worry about layoffs at my company (privately held).

I agree the numbers on here seem high. Even hot shots at my company in the 10-15 year range only make around $150k. I could probably work an easier job and make the same or job shop and make another $10-20k a year more but I like what I do (don’t always love the hours) and like my company and like what we do. My husband is an unemployed recent comp sci grad though so it sounds like if I could merely get him a job out income would skyrocket.
by Engineer250
Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New era for TSP "I" Fund?
Replies: 121
Views: 20240

Re: New era for TSP "I" Fund?

Anyone know more than I do about a timeline for implementation of this? Every time I try to search for news on it I only find months-old information; the latest that Congress opposed certain investments but the TSP board President said it was still moving forward- however, no timeline was provided.
by Engineer250
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Currently invested in 100% stock
Replies: 138
Views: 18959

Re: Currently invested in 100% stock

If you lose your job and are forced to rely on your funds to survive, obviously being 100% stocks will probably not have been the optimal solution. You will be forced to liquidate precisely when you don't want to liquidate, and it would have been better to have retained some allocation in bonds. Nevertheless there are those that are, and I believe the 100% allocation is more appropriate for them. For example, those that are single, have no obligations, no children, no debt, and work in recession proof industries---federal employee, state government, those in the military, workers for campbell soups/dollar tree, etc. Based on the demographics of millennials, apparently there's a sizable chunk of such unattached people. I fall into that cate...
by Engineer250
Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area budget for $350k family income
Replies: 94
Views: 11299

Re: Bay Area budget for $350k family income

The issue here is clearly one of defining the term "middle-class lifestyle". The hypothetical family is living an upper-class lifestyle, but trying to 'convince themselves' that they are middle-class. $4200/year for a baby, $6000/y for 'entertainment' ($500/m buys a lot of Netflix), and $8000/y for vacations is not what anyone would consider middle-class. The same issue pops up a lot on this board. People claiming to be earning middle class money and living a middle class lifestyle when in fact they are earning more and living more lavishly. In fact on this board a lot of people living above an middle class lifestyle claim to be living below middle class. I've seen people claim that driving a 3-5 year old Honda Accord is being fr...
by Engineer250
Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Improving the TSP [for current participants]
Replies: 587
Views: 92365

Re: Improving the TSP [for current participants]

Anyone have any plans for when the withdrawal options change in just a couple weeks?

I have a logistics question. I am no longer with the feds but still “young”. My plan is to pull out all my Roth TSP money and roll it into my Vanguard Roth IRA, to make it easier to invest my Roth money differently from pre-tax money (and take advantage of the G Fund as I get older). My question is, should I:

A. Roll the money into my existing Roth IRA and just keep track of how much the rollover was and the time for future reference (simplicity of one account).
-OR-
B. Have a separate rollover Roth account to keep the money separate (multiple accounts but keeps like money with like).
by Engineer250
Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogleheads, why won't anyone hire me?
Replies: 194
Views: 21182

Re: Bogleheads, why won't anyone hire me?

I haven’t read all the replies and want to put more thought into a reply later, but I just wanted to say a few things. A. The job market is not as “great” as the stats make it sound. Most new jobs have been in retail and fast food. B. I agree it’s definitely who you know. And luck. C. My experience with today’s job market is you better be already doing what they are going to hire you for and have more experience than they are hiring for, or better be someone’s kid. D. This board is dominated by boomers who got their jobs with paper resumes and hand shakes at a time when the middle class job market was still booming. While I’m sure some are sympathetic and reasonable, expect a few old guys telling you to suck it up and don’t take it personal...
by Engineer250
Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I able to do a Mega Backdoor ROTH?
Replies: 9
Views: 2583

Re: Am I able to do a Mega Backdoor ROTH?

Bump for an update: I'm not the most qualified to ask the "appropriate" questions. But I called my 401k provider today (Voya) and I asked the question: "Can I rollover my after-tax 401k contributions while still employed?" - This seemed like the appropriate question to ask - BH feel free to correct me if I'm wrong there. The answer was "Yes" - I can apparently do an in-service (which I take to mean "while still employed") withdrawal of after-tax contributions. Note though: I followed up that with the question of "Does a withdrawal mean the same as a rollover?" and I was told yes, it can be a rollover as well. So now I must ask BH - did my question/answer to my 401k provider tell me all I ne...
by Engineer250
Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just general comments for a 22 y/o on financial position
Replies: 44
Views: 8800

Re: Just general comments for a 22 y/o on financial position

nedsaid wrote: Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:34 pm Meg77, that was great advice given above. I would nominate that post for the Bogleheads Hall of Fame if there was one.

The thing is, when I was in college, I had no money. When I took my first job, I might have had $20 in the bank plus whatever I borrowed from my parents to get started. I just marvel at these posts. Oh well, I guess some people out there just have money.
Seems the norm for Bogleheads. I had no money in college but was lucky to get out without debt. Many of my peers were not so lucky. Then I see people on here who are maxing out their 401ks, Roth IRAs, paying their kids’ entire college tuition and on campus living expenses, and starting Roth IRAs for their kids when they are 16 years old.
by Engineer250
Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife hates new job...wants to quit after 1 day
Replies: 195
Views: 28653

Re: Wife hates new job...wants to quit after 1 day

Sounds like she isn’t the kind of person who can deal with uncertainty/ambiguity and is also not particularly social. She may be in the wrong role to begin with. I mean come on, she was upset that people didn’t talk to her? Did she introduce herself and talk to them? “Hi, I’m XXX, this is my first day, who are you and what do you do here?” In a perfectly functioning megacorp it is usually a small miracle to have 1) space 2) a computer 3) necessary passwords and access for a new employee. No surprise she is at a random table with bad IT if chaos just started. My guess is she got hired into megacorp before restructuring where there was a solid plan for her job, and now she has entered the chaos associated with the restructuring. I don’t see ...
by Engineer250
Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to add bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 4736

Re: When to add bonds?

I believe that a good argument can be made to be 100% stock until ten years prior to your anticipated retirement age. At that point, you can then starting moving into bonds, 2-5% per year. Am similar age to OP (though started working young and went through 2008) and this is my plan. I read an article around 2008 that states too many people about to retire were too heavily invested in stocks, and too many young people were too heavily invested in bonds. Am 100% and plan to stay that way until I get a lot closer, then do a more extreme ramp up in bonds as I get close. I’ve been through 2008, didn’t really know there was a downturn in December, and like that I don’t need to do anything. A target fund would serve largely the same purpose though.
by Engineer250
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I caught the falling knife
Replies: 60
Views: 15590

Re:

MossySF wrote: Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:22 pm This is like a butter knife.

Buying a foreclosure in 2009 thinking most of the worst was over -- now that's a real blade.
Not sure this aged well either. Bought in 2008. Put 5% down. Refinanced twice as rates were dropping. My monthly mortgage plus taxes plus insurance is $1000 less than the house next to me is renting for. People waiting for a second real estate crash are still waiting.
by Engineer250
Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWAX) and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares (VFSAX) now available (February 7)
Replies: 181
Views: 27513

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5

...But a two-fund solution (or 3-fund, with Total World Stock, Total Bond in tax-advantaged, and muni bonds in taxable) is a perfect combination of tax efficiency and simplicity.... For Fed retirees, Total World in TIRA and Roth at Vanguard, Schwab, or Fido, and TSP G Fund for bonds in the TSP (Thrift Savings Plan) is sweet. Later this year you will be able to roll your own Total World at 53/47 or whatever it is then with TSP C, S and I for an overall ER of 0.03%, assuming the I fund contract holds to 0.03% at renewal. The I fund will be reconstituted later this year to track the MSCI all-country ex-US IMI index so the EM end ex-US small cap "gap" in the TSP will be removed. https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/f24204d8-3fba-46b7...
by Engineer250
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119735

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:01 am
Engineer250 wrote: Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:39 am My personal traffic indicator says the economy is still going on very strong. No evidence of slowdown here.
The purchasing manager index is at 59.3%. That is indicative that we are not in a recession and that one is not close either.
Neat. I learned about a new economic indicator.
by Engineer250
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119735

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

My personal traffic indicator says the economy is still going on very strong. No evidence of slowdown here.
by Engineer250
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651540

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I saw a headline a couple days ago that said, “Bear Market is Coming” or something like that. But I misread it as BEER market :D :sharebeer
by Engineer250
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651540

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Scooter57 wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:16 am The whole "boomers had it easy" meme is a fantasy that too many young people use as an excuse for why they don't have to try.
I never said boomers had it easy. My point was while you can say “maybe this good run in the stock market is over” and “I made good money in CDs” - I don’t have the same options. Like Bogle says, “invest we must”. I’m not going to get into a debate on which generation had it hardest or parade out a list of my own hardships to “prove” to anyone whether or not I’ve tried or earned my own success. I am going to keep investing because it’s my only option now for a retirement someday.
by Engineer250
Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651540

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Many of the places where they are stagnant are in human terms much pleasanter places to live. Typical midwest bias :wink: Homes in my neighborhood have gone up almost 300% since the 1980s. I calculate about a 4.4% annualized return. Of course money in the stock market would have done much better. Yes sometimes things change. Sometimes the good, middle class jobs that people could get in the 1980s have disappeared. Sometimes the amazing savings rates and bond returns people could get havent been around in my adult life, and don't look like they will be again anytime soon the way this economy is going. You say sometimes it's time to take your money off the table in case the stock market becomes another Japan. I say you had affordable home pr...
by Engineer250
Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651540

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Investing in stocks seems so weird. You have to expect to lose a bunch of money periodically, and that this is a good thing and not a bad thing because you can buy even more at lower prices and that the stock market is just joining AA to correct it's excesses and become a better person. It's like expecting that if you buy a house, part of it will periodically burn down but that's a good thing. No need to have insurance on that is there? It's just weird. A better analogy is the price of your home. You buy a home expecting in the 40 years you live there that its “price” or “value” will typically keep up with inflation, but may occasionally rise or fall. When it falls, your kids have a better chance of buying a home in your neighborhood and y...
by Engineer250
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651540

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I did all my end of year buying on Tuesday (when it almost recovered and stayed flat). I don't have much left to buy into it for the rest of the year, so expect it to keep going down.

In other news, while I am putting in less money the student loans are also in freefall and 10% paid off after 3 months. Better return than the last year in the market but we'll see if that holds up.
by Engineer250
Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651540

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

gks wrote: Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:57 pm Sometimes I think this is my favorite thread. Sorry Taylor, nisiprius, Lady Geek, nedsaid, livesoft, et al who offer better educated and analytical analysis of markets and investing (edit: than I).
I was trying to talk to my husband about the inverting or possible inverting of the bond yield curve and he was trying to change the subject or at least get me to stop talking about it. Thankfully I have this place to see other people collectively say, “huh, that’s interesting.”

More on topic, I predict a stock market rise tomorrow. There’s a small buy I keep forgetting to make so guessing the market will be back up now that I’m remembering.
by Engineer250
Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651540

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

TomatoTomahto wrote: Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:13 pm @Hiwatter, WanderingDoc thinks highly of rental properties.
Can we get some real estate, gold, and crypto currency dedicated threads? So these guys can stay out of the index fund threads? I don’t show up at real estate forums and tell everyone they are stupid and should be buying index funds.
by Engineer250
Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651540

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

J G Bankerton wrote: Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:36 am I’m forbidden by law from setting up or contributing to a tax advantaged arraignment. I do fully fund Roth IRAs for my children.
If I had a dollar for every Boglehead fully funding their kids’ Roth IRAs...I would have been able to max my own this year :greedy :beer
by Engineer250
Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve Report: Millennials are poorer than previous generations
Replies: 17
Views: 2668

Re: Federal Reserve Report: Millennials are poorer than previous generations

3504PIR wrote: Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:15 pm
ebrasmus21 wrote: Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:09 pm
3504PIR wrote: Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:52 pm Part of it was the hit they took in 09. The other part is that they are still waiting to be rewarded for their existence :D
The baby boomers that raised them did a great disservice teaching millennials to behave/think that way.
Amen
I see a lot of Boomer and older Xer parents on here setting up Roth IRAs for their kids and putting the entire yearly contribution in for them. That is usually credited as being wise and financially smart, but it could also be looked at as rewarding them just for existing 8-)
by Engineer250
Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Unveils Plans for Expanding Withdrawal Options
Replies: 27
Views: 3118

Re: TSP Unveils Plans for Expanding Withdrawal Options

Oh. Well let's make sure we discuss this again in another year. :sharebeer
by Engineer250
Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Unveils Plans for Expanding Withdrawal Options
Replies: 27
Views: 3118

Re: TSP Unveils Plans for Expanding Withdrawal Options

The lack of the ability to make in-plan Roth conversions will cause me to withdraw hundreds of thousands of dollars more from the TSP next September than I would have otherwise withdrawn had they permitted in-plan Roth conversions. I don’t know why this is such a big deal. My Vanguard 401k doesn’t offer this and neither did the Schwab 401k my private employer had before. It won't be a problem come September 2019 when you can do unlimited partial withdrawals. However, as it stands now you are limited to one partial withdrawal and then must do a full sum withdrawal. IRRs allow you to do yearly Roth conversions and allow all assets to remain in the plan. Right. But again, why is this a deal breaker when I’ve never had a private plan that offe...
by Engineer250
Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Unveils Plans for Expanding Withdrawal Options
Replies: 27
Views: 3118

Re: TSP Unveils Plans for Expanding Withdrawal Options

MichDad wrote: Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:36 pm The lack of the ability to make in-plan Roth conversions will cause me to withdraw hundreds of thousands of dollars more from the TSP next September than I would have otherwise withdrawn had they permitted in-plan Roth conversions.

MichDad
I don’t know why this is such a big deal. My Vanguard 401k doesn’t offer this and neither did the Schwab 401k my private employer had before.
by Engineer250
Mon Nov 26, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119735

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Can't keep this market down, climbing back up!
by Engineer250
Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 27
Views: 3239

Re: Inflation

CarpeDiem22 wrote: Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:52 pm Inflation is going to come from only one source: Fed printing more currency (how else is the govt going to pay interest on the debt pile).
There's an economic theory (Modern Monetary Theory) that says, in part, high deficits cause high inflation. Increased taxation is a method to reduce the monetary supply and therefore reduce inflation. Most of those economists don't think the US deficit is anywhere near high enough to cause high inflation, but it's an interesting idea to contemplate.
by Engineer250
Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651540

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Christine600 wrote: Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:08 am
AlphaLess wrote: Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:03 pm So if both indices and bonds are down, then where is the money going?
Cash. As in savings accounts.
I'm paying off student loans, which is similar.

While I think this little blip is actually a big nothing, and that personal investors don't drive the stock market, it is interesting to remember all the predictions about boomers selling off when a lot of millennials can't afford to buy in. I don't think that's what's going on here though.

Also, am hoping the Fed stays strong and still raises rates as planned in December. Their rate raising so far has resulted in better savings and CD rates for me and I would like to see more of the same.
by Engineer250
Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?
Replies: 225
Views: 25164

Re: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?

Like everyone else I am getting the “you have no eligible funds” message even though I do. Also my brokerage option inside my 401k doesn’t have the same icons so I suspect I will have to manually exchange those for the admiral. But I’m okay with that. I can be patient and wait a couple weeks while they work out the kinks. I am going out on a limb, but I predict your 401(K) funds will not be eligible for the Admiral.... I pay an extra $50 a year for a brokerage option that lets me invest in anything I want through VG rather than the funds in my plan. It's like a normal VG brokerage account but inside my 401k. I haven't been in this job very long so didn't have the admiral minimums yet. But do with this change. Most of the funds in my plan w...
by Engineer250
Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?
Replies: 225
Views: 25164

Re: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vanguard-ratchets-up-index-fund-price-battle-1542636000 For those not behind the paywall. Starting Monday, the firm is lowering the minimums for admiral shares—a share class that costs less than regular investor classes—to $3,000 from $10,000 for 38 index mutual funds. The funds make up the majority of Vanguard’s index funds that are available to individual investors and include some of the industry’s largest stock and bond index funds. The other quote of interest to me: The firm is also launching new admiral shares on five index funds with those new minimums. Does anyone know what these are? Someone mentioned Total World in a separate thread. Is my VSS/VFSVX (All-World ex-US Small Cap) dream coming true? And t...
by Engineer250
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651540

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Sorry it’s my fault. I’m putting extra money towards debt not buying index funds. So expect the volatility to continue.
by Engineer250
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651540

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Independent George wrote: Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:52 pm Reading through this thread, it amazes me how many Bogleheads succumb to market timing and buying high/selling low.

The theoretical 'everybody indexes and price discovery disappears' is never going to happen.
Actually most posts are jokes. About a 100 pages back I did a statistical analysis of people’s posting. It was something like 3-4 people who were reducing their equity exposure, another 10-20 who said they were buying more, and another 500 posts of jokes or telling people to stay the course. Much like the stock market, important to separate out the signal and the noise in this thread.
by Engineer250
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651540

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I believe that another factor is ruthless cost cutting. Also profit margins are at or near all-time highs. The low hanging fruit has been plucked. The easiest way to grow earnings is to merge with another company and fire redundant employees. As the pointy haired boss in the Dilbert cartoon famously said, "Employees are our most valuable asset, lay some off and the stock price goes up." At some point, even this strategy will exhaust as many US companies operate with essentially skeleton crews. At some point, business schools will have to start teaching about how to grow business again. Love it. Have read articles complaining millennials are less likely to buy homes due to student loans. Just saw one yesterday that said they are l...
by Engineer250
Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 148
Views: 22399

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

CaliJim wrote: Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:16 am There have been many previous posts about best places to retire. :twisted:

https://www.google.com/search?sitesearc ... +to+retire

BTW: Where is crazytown? Are you talking about the bar on Broadway in Nashville?
I prefer to retire in funkytown not crazytown (though I might be going off the rails on a crazy train). :sharebeer

Anyways, downturn isn’t happening until 2020, trust me :wink:
by Engineer250
Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119735

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Anyone else excited to see 10 year treasury yields finally hanging on above 3% again? I'll be interested when they're at 6%, but that could mean high expected inflation and/or high economic growth. The fact that short-term treasuries are close, flatter yield curve, doesn't get me excited to lend money at 3% for ten years when near cash is earning 2%. It's hard for me to get excited about a (possibly) 1% real return. I’m not buying treasuries (outside of fed money market for my emergency fund). But I will take real returns being greater than 0 any day. Minus 2014 and 2015, inflation was hovering between 1.5% and 3% since the recession. But good luck finding any money markets or savings accounts paying anywhere near that. Inflation is someth...
by Engineer250
Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119735

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Anyone else excited to see 10 year treasury yields finally hanging on above 3% again?
by Engineer250
Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 142213

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Don't automatically assume that "Bogleheads tend to be from the fortunate side of Americans". Many Bogleheads worked hard and saved to achieve a measure of success. Not everyone here has had things handed to her. Not everyone here was born into wealth or privilege. Success for many here started with a state of mind, which is one message Bogleheads try to impress on those who will listen. We see that many things increase far faster than wages, education and healthcare come to mind. However, discussions involving such subjects tend to drift into politics, which is off limits here. And don't misinterpret my statements. I didn't say everyone posted here had everything handed to them. I just said I think Bogleheads tend to be from the...
by Engineer250
Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 142213

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

this thread has reminded me to buy international this week buy low sell high is nice Could you do just as well by shorting the USD ? “For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start. America’s golden goose of commerce and innovation will continue to lay more and larger eggs. America’s social security promises will be honored and perhaps made more generous. And, yes, America’s kids will live far better than their parents did .” –- Warren Buffett Ignoring Mr. Buffett's assertion about social security's continued viability in its present form (as that's a political discussion), we should note that the bolded statement is empirically false. We already have a generation with a lower standard of liv...
by Engineer250
Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 26151

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

InvestingGeek wrote: Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:44 am Not that it's relevant to anything I do, but I have a vague feeling this market still has a couple more years of upside before stalling. Economy's doing well, company fundamentals are good, inflation is a threat especially with tarriffs on the horizon, and we're nowhere close to the craziness of Y2K or 2006-2008.
This is my feeling as well. I am worried about high inflation (and not sure about what effect that will have on the stock market). I don't see another crash coming until 2020 at the soonest. But it's not changing anything I do. Just a hunch.
by Engineer250
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?
Replies: 110
Views: 7904

Re: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?

Company in my industry won a large contract last week. I found out at the same time the world did. But even if I had some sort of industry knowledge that they were going to win...their stock is down 2% since then.

My "beef" with stock picking, even when your information is good, is that sometimes stock prices are irrational. For instance, I trust Tesla the company to get past their production problems and do well. That doesn't mean I'm confident their stock price will be higher in x years from now.
by Engineer250
Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119735

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

SGM wrote: Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:06 am My buddy Skysoldier was number 1 at 10 AM in his prediction of the S&P. He is torn between wanting to win the contest and have bragging rights or wanting me to be right with my high prediction. He has come down on the side of his portfolio and he wants my high prediction to be acciurate. I will buy him a cup of coffee tomorrow for hitting number 1.
I am beginning to worry I undershot with my prediction, but we'll see. I'm #120 now with another 2+% to go. A lot better than my performance in the hedge fund contest.

Thanks to whomever started this thread. I love the freefall one too so am pleased there's another one we can post on if the market goes up by a half a percent rather than down.
by Engineer250
Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119735

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

When the threads pop up about 100% stocks, it tells me that lots of folks have already forgotten the pain of the 2000-2002 and the 2008-2009 bear markets. Could be that the veterans remember this and that maybe these threads are from newer investors and newer forum members. It would be interesting to research that. What I am saying is that long bull markets tend to make us very brave. 100% stock. I was invested in 2008 and am prepared to lose 50% just like I did in 2008. But I suppose I would still be considered young and have only been a forum member for a couple years now. I don't want to get all "this time it's different" with bonds, but feel honestly that my generation won't have the same Bond bull market a lot of older peopl...
by Engineer250
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119735

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

youdiditr2 wrote: Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:07 am this post means we're offical at the top!!!! Track performance since this post!
Top isn't until 2020. Trust me. Better put away this crystal ball.
by Engineer250
Mon Aug 20, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Median pay for 30 Bay Area companies
Replies: 7
Views: 2026

Re: Median pay for 30 Bay Area companies

jharkin wrote: Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:53 pm
mervinj7 wrote: Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:40 pm Like livesoft would say, garbage in, garbage out. It lists the median pay of 30 "Bay Area" companies but doesn't list what the median pay is for their Bay Area based employees specifically. For example, the average pay for Intel is listed at $102k but that includes the wages of every manufacturing employee in Oregon. I would assume the average pay for a Santa Clara based non-factory based employee (e.g. engineer) would be much higher.
Yep.... And you know somebody is going to read this and declare that CS new hires right out of college should get these salaries :oops:
Plenty of Bogleheads posted about their kids making $100k+ right out of college. Makes me wonder what I did with my life.
by Engineer250
Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you measure % of international holdings?
Replies: 10
Views: 1242

Re: How do you measure % of international holdings?

JoMoney wrote: Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:16 pm My allocation is zero, so it's the same regardless.
I believe most people measure it such that the total of the portfolio = 100%
...UNLESS they specifically mention "of their equity allocation"
Well my bond allocation is 0. So my international is the same percentage either way as well, 50% :sharebeer
by Engineer250
Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 12555

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

I don't think awareness of a good faith best estimate of how things might play out in the medium-term necessarily equates to market timing. In my view their are three valid aspects to consider. 1. A person in their heavy-lifting accumulation years might consider a higher contribution rate if they have been using historic returns to estimate what savings rate will get them where they want to be by a certain age. I'm not trying to pick on you, but how realistic is this? My saving plan is basically "as much as I can." If I think returns will be a lot better or a lot worse than average, it doesn't change how much I'm saving. I can't afford to save any more. But also because the great unknown of the future, I feel like I can't afford ...