Search found 1040 matches

by Engineer250
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7814
Views: 1605779

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Sorry it’s my fault. I’m putting extra money towards debt not buying index funds. So expect the volatility to continue.
by Engineer250
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7814
Views: 1605779

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Reading through this thread, it amazes me how many Bogleheads succumb to market timing and buying high/selling low. The theoretical 'everybody indexes and price discovery disappears' is never going to happen. Actually most posts are jokes. About a 100 pages back I did a statistical analysis of peop...
by Engineer250
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7814
Views: 1605779

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I believe that another factor is ruthless cost cutting. Also profit margins are at or near all-time highs. The low hanging fruit has been plucked. The easiest way to grow earnings is to merge with another company and fire redundant employees. As the pointy haired boss in the Dilbert cartoon famousl...
by Engineer250
Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 129
Views: 14988

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

There have been many previous posts about best places to retire. :twisted: https://www.google.com/search?sitesearch=bogleheads.org&q=best+place+to+retire BTW: Where is crazytown? Are you talking about the bar on Broadway in Nashville? I prefer to retire in funkytown not crazytown (though I might be...
by Engineer250
Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 354
Views: 38798

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Anyone else excited to see 10 year treasury yields finally hanging on above 3% again? I'll be interested when they're at 6%, but that could mean high expected inflation and/or high economic growth. The fact that short-term treasuries are close, flatter yield curve, doesn't get me excited to lend mo...
by Engineer250
Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 354
Views: 38798

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Anyone else excited to see 10 year treasury yields finally hanging on above 3% again?
by Engineer250
Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 105801

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Don't automatically assume that "Bogleheads tend to be from the fortunate side of Americans". Many Bogleheads worked hard and saved to achieve a measure of success. Not everyone here has had things handed to her. Not everyone here was born into wealth or privilege. Success for many here started wit...
by Engineer250
Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 105801

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

this thread has reminded me to buy international this week buy low sell high is nice Could you do just as well by shorting the USD ? “For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start. America’s golden goose of commerce and innovation will continue to la...
by Engineer250
Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 20701

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

Not that it's relevant to anything I do, but I have a vague feeling this market still has a couple more years of upside before stalling. Economy's doing well, company fundamentals are good, inflation is a threat especially with tarriffs on the horizon, and we're nowhere close to the craziness of Y2...
by Engineer250
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?
Replies: 110
Views: 5816

Re: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?

Company in my industry won a large contract last week. I found out at the same time the world did. But even if I had some sort of industry knowledge that they were going to win...their stock is down 2% since then. My "beef" with stock picking, even when your information is good, is that sometimes st...
by Engineer250
Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 354
Views: 38798

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

My buddy Skysoldier was number 1 at 10 AM in his prediction of the S&P. He is torn between wanting to win the contest and have bragging rights or wanting me to be right with my high prediction. He has come down on the side of his portfolio and he wants my high prediction to be acciurate. I will buy...
by Engineer250
Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 354
Views: 38798

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

When the threads pop up about 100% stocks, it tells me that lots of folks have already forgotten the pain of the 2000-2002 and the 2008-2009 bear markets. Could be that the veterans remember this and that maybe these threads are from newer investors and newer forum members. It would be interesting ...
by Engineer250
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 354
Views: 38798

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

youdiditr2 wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:07 am
this post means we're offical at the top!!!! Track performance since this post!
Top isn't until 2020. Trust me. Better put away this crystal ball.
by Engineer250
Mon Aug 20, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Median pay for 30 Bay Area companies
Replies: 7
Views: 1658

Re: Median pay for 30 Bay Area companies

Like livesoft would say, garbage in, garbage out. It lists the median pay of 30 "Bay Area" companies but doesn't list what the median pay is for their Bay Area based employees specifically. For example, the average pay for Intel is listed at $102k but that includes the wages of every manufacturing ...
by Engineer250
Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you measure % of international holdings?
Replies: 10
Views: 895

Re: How do you measure % of international holdings?

My allocation is zero, so it's the same regardless. I believe most people measure it such that the total of the portfolio = 100% ... UNLESS they specifically mention "of their equity allocation" Well my bond allocation is 0. So my international is the same percentage either way as well, 50% :shareb...
by Engineer250
Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 10531

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

I don't think awareness of a good faith best estimate of how things might play out in the medium-term necessarily equates to market timing. In my view their are three valid aspects to consider. 1. A person in their heavy-lifting accumulation years might consider a higher contribution rate if they h...
by Engineer250
Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory
Replies: 65
Views: 9169

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Since the mid 2000's, in China, you have a leader who made himself leader for life, in Russia, Putin has invaded Ukraine & made himself leader for life & the same for Turkey (leader for life). All the trends are moving in the wrong directions in those countries. As these leaders gain power, the sit...
by Engineer250
Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 10531

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

If you go back in time and read 10 year predictions written in 2008, would they have been this precise? I would wager a high percentage were wrong. You made me curious so I tried to find some of their old research papers to see. From one in 2009: Given early 2009 stock valuation levels, our analysi...
by Engineer250
Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 48
Views: 5775

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

Mines right on track between 2005/2006 with the chart, that's including the employer match and only half of 2005. I'm a bit behind. But was making $30k a year in 2005 so not capable of maxing out by putting about 50% of my income into my 401k. I suspect that is where most people are. Bogleheads are...
by Engineer250
Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 105801

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I swear if it weren't for threads on this forum I'd have no idea what my investments were even doing. The major news outlets cover DJIA and sometimes S&P, but it's easy even with that to forget past the day-to-day and what it's actually doing this year or last five years or whatever. I'm a market ca...
by Engineer250
Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another Roth vs Traditional Debate
Replies: 21
Views: 1920

Re: Another Roth vs Traditional Debate

One of the arguments for going traditional is you can do Roth conversions in later years. Your scenario blows that up. I've never understood the argument that Roths may be banned and taxed retroactively (which would be extraordinary) but tax rates won't go up (which has happened frequently historic...
by Engineer250
Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6814

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

I agree. But anecdotally it feels like inflation is picking up faster than CDs/savings rates/treasury rates. I am too tired/lazy to look up rather my "feeling" has any connection with reality. But nonetheless, it's a concern. That inflation is going to pick up regardless, so I would kind of like tr...
by Engineer250
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6814

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

I hope he’s right. That would be just fine with me. I would like to see higher rates as well. Every time the 10-year treasury yield drops back below 3% I am disappointed. Would like to see it comfortably above 3. Higher 'real' interest rates might be nice, higher rates that are actually a negative ...
by Engineer250
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6814

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

bondsr4me wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:32 pm
I hope he’s right.

That would be just fine with me.
I would like to see higher rates as well. Every time the 10-year treasury yield drops back below 3% I am disappointed. Would like to see it comfortably above 3.
by Engineer250
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 14167

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

I'm in agreement with the premise. But this post proved nothing. Why not backtest some target retirement funds vs age-in-bond portfolios? Because this ISN’T about performance chasing, past or future. How is comparing age in bonds to several companies' target funds any more meaningful? It's not. A m...
by Engineer250
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 14167

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

I'm in agreement with the premise.

But this post proved nothing. Why not backtest some target retirement funds vs age-in-bond portfolios?
by Engineer250
Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So go the FAANG, so goes the market?
Replies: 41
Views: 4735

Re: So go the FAANG, so goes the market?

There are about 1 to 2 million species of animals. 350,000 of them are beetles. Beetles account for between 17% and 35% of all of the animal species on Earth. Should we view this with alarm? Well I wasn't worried about all this other stuff, but now I'm kinda worried about our new beetle overlords. ...
by Engineer250
Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are millennials botching their asset allocations?
Replies: 68
Views: 7738

Re: Are millennial botching their asset allocations?

As a 27 year old who frequents this website, I am not botching my asset allocations. However, I do find concerning the number of my friends/coworkers who have either little to no ability to save, no concern about their retirement, or just trusting their financial advisor blindly. Same. I’m also 27,...
by Engineer250
Sun Jul 29, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying a home [as a safe investment]
Replies: 42
Views: 3368

Re: Buying a home

+1 - at the end of the day, everyone wants to purchase a house and wants people to tell them it was the best financial decision they ever made. By the way, a rental can also be a home. I'd say at the end of the day, we all justify our financial decisions, and say they were worth it even if for reas...
by Engineer250
Sun Jul 29, 2018 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying a home [as a safe investment]
Replies: 42
Views: 3368

Re: Buying a home

Don't you have to account for investing the difference? Especially among BHs, that is what they are doing with their excess cash that they aren't spending on housing costs. That $50,000 down payment, invested 30 years ago in Vanguard's S&P 500 investor fund, would be worth almost $1MM today. 10 yea...
by Engineer250
Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying a home [as a safe investment]
Replies: 42
Views: 3368

Re: Buying a home

Don't you have to account for investing the difference? Especially among BHs, that is what they are doing with their excess cash that they aren't spending on housing costs. That $50,000 down payment, invested 30 years ago in Vanguard's S&P 500 investor fund, would be worth almost $1MM today. 10 yea...
by Engineer250
Sat Jul 28, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11418

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

I am old school and would rather invest in a company that “makes something”. Like rather invest in Tesla any day than an ad or service based company like Facebook. I remember ribbing colleagues who got in on FB their IPO and watched it drop from what they bought it at. I think it is up like 400% fr...
by Engineer250
Sat Jul 28, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11418

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

I am old school and would rather invest in a company that “makes something”. Like rather invest in Tesla any day than an ad or service based company like Facebook. I remember ribbing colleagues who got in on FB their IPO and watched it drop from what they bought it at. I think it is up like 400% fr...
by Engineer250
Fri Jul 27, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11418

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

Im traveling right now and using pay as you go data, so please just describe your puppies and kale salads with text instead of images. This forum is my go to when I have bad cell reception. I know I can open a thread and just read a page without having to load a bunch of gifs, images, or ads. That ...
by Engineer250
Fri Jul 27, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement [2FA: Two-factor authentication]
Replies: 185
Views: 13895

Re: Security code [Vanguard website access]

I thought i remembered seeing an email option when I signed up. However, I’m perfectly okay with a text only system. It’s more secure. If my email is compromised, they could easily compromise all my financial accounts. At least now that won’t include VG. Using your phone is far more secure. I don’t ...
by Engineer250
Tue Jul 24, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Split 401k 50/50 roth/traditional [new job]?
Replies: 17
Views: 1219

Re: Split 401k 50/50 roth/traditional [new job]?

I know the group bias here is to do 100% traditional, You knew this and expected this. I am one of the few pro-Roth holdouts on here. I'm doing 50/50 in what is a 22% fed rate and high state tax rate due to theoretical tax cuts expiring, future higher earnings, and not expecting early retirement. T...
by Engineer250
Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The joys of investing
Replies: 23
Views: 3009

Re: The joys of investing

(I love spreadsheets) The spreadsheet is my favorite part. I have I Fund in TSP but am trying to have a market weight portfolio. So I use a spreadsheet to balance my US vs International, and my emerging and international small cap. It will be a lot simpler when they update the I Fund and I just hav...
by Engineer250
Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home ownership vs investing -- condos vs renting, etc
Replies: 108
Views: 6158

Re: Home ownership vs investing -- condos vs renting, etc

I don't know anyone that didn't want to trade up their condo for a house when they could. So that was a lot of sunk cost for them, and betting that prices will keep going up, but that their condo fees won't get too bad. This is potentially very important. What were their reasons for wanting to upgr...
by Engineer250
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home ownership vs investing -- condos vs renting, etc
Replies: 108
Views: 6158

Re: Home ownership vs investing -- condos vs renting, etc

I don't know anyone that didn't want to trade up their condo for a house when they could. I know many people who don't want to trade their apartment for a house, including myself, although I agree that an apartment is not a good substitute for a house for someone who really wants a house instead of...
by Engineer250
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home ownership vs investing -- condos vs renting, etc
Replies: 108
Views: 6158

Re: Home ownership vs investing -- condos vs renting, etc

I know too many people who bought a condo because they couldn't afford a house and were too impatient to wait and keep saving, felt like they'd better get in now before they got priced out. If that's your reason for buying a condo, don't do it. I don't know anyone that didn't want to trade up their ...
by Engineer250
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"
Replies: 58
Views: 7167

Re: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"

I find it interesting to note that many do not view stocks' annualized real returns of 12.78% from 2009 until now to be indicative of a bubble in that market, but many here view real estate prices increasing by an inflation-adjusted 3.1%* from the bottom of the last recession, then real estate is c...
by Engineer250
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"
Replies: 58
Views: 7167

Re: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"

I find it interesting to note that many do not view stocks' annualized real returns of 12.78% from 2009 until now to be indicative of a bubble in that market, but many here view real estate prices increasing by an inflation-adjusted 3.1%* from the bottom of the last recession, then real estate is c...
by Engineer250
Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capping Emergency Fund
Replies: 53
Views: 5143

Re: Capping Emergency Fund

Engineer250, Not necessary true. You can withdraw the Roth IRA contribution penalty free before 59 1/2 years old too. KlangFool True. But if you do end up tapping a Roth IRA, then you have "wasted" that year's limited contributions, so obviously not a first choice. But I do mentally consider my cur...
by Engineer250
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capping Emergency Fund
Replies: 53
Views: 5143

Re: Capping Emergency Fund

I think some people consider a stock crash and unemployment as an emergency and plan to use their energy emergency fund in an attempt to avoid selling stocks under any circumstances until they recover, which I assume people define as a return to pre-crash prices but I don't really know. mega317, A ...
by Engineer250
Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"
Replies: 58
Views: 7167

Re: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"

There seems to be a lot of people who believe the recent gains in real estate (over the last 10ish years) are sustainable on a long-term basis in select cities. For some reason, folks forget about the dot.com bust, the housing market crash from 10 years ago, etc. Tech may be a long-term driver of t...
by Engineer250
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"
Replies: 58
Views: 7167

Re: WCI blog post - "This Real Estate Bubble - Likely Isn't a Bubble"

If the housing market (taken as a whole) is not currently a bubble, it seems likely that it's approaching bubble territory. Two questions for you: 1. How do you define "bubble territory?" 2. What data do you have to suggest that we are in said territory? There isn't much empirical data being provid...
by Engineer250
Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation for High Net Worth (>$3M) Individuals
Replies: 26
Views: 5123

Asset Allocation for High Net Worth (>$3M) Individuals

Saw this blog post on Financial Samurai and thought it was interesting: https://www.financialsamurai.com/how-high-net-worth-individuals-invest-asset-allocation-breakdown/ According to the pie-chart below, the average asset allocation for respondents with over $3 million in investable assets is 55% s...
by Engineer250
Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capping Emergency Fund
Replies: 53
Views: 5143

Re: Capping Emergency Fund

emergency funds stop making sense the moment it doesn't affect your feelings about it. mathematically, the best thing to do is to invest every penny you have, and if/when an emergency happens, sell and rebalance. if you can't sleep well at night doing that, then by all means, carry some cash around...
by Engineer250
Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capping Emergency Fund
Replies: 53
Views: 5143

Re: Capping Emergency Fund

emergency funds stop making sense the moment it doesn't affect your feelings about it. mathematically, the best thing to do is to invest every penny you have, and if/when an emergency happens, sell and rebalance. if you can't sleep well at night doing that, then by all means, carry some cash around...
by Engineer250
Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock buy backs?
Replies: 13
Views: 734

Re: Stock buy backs?

I just read that a lot of companies are buying back their own stocks this year. Questions: 1. Why would they do this when the market is so high? 2.What does this mean to stockholders? 3.What does this mean to the market in general? Peace, JTJjr What else are they going to do with their record profi...