Search found 1059 matches

by Engineer250
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 553
Views: 60525

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:01 pm
Engineer250 wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:39 am
My personal traffic indicator says the economy is still going on very strong. No evidence of slowdown here.
The purchasing manager index is at 59.3%. That is indicative that we are not in a recession and that one is not close either.
Neat. I learned about a new economic indicator.
by Engineer250
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 553
Views: 60525

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

My personal traffic indicator says the economy is still going on very strong. No evidence of slowdown here.
by Engineer250
Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782248

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I saw a headline a couple days ago that said, “Bear Market is Coming” or something like that. But I misread it as BEER market :D :sharebeer
by Engineer250
Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782248

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The whole "boomers had it easy" meme is a fantasy that too many young people use as an excuse for why they don't have to try. I never said boomers had it easy. My point was while you can say “maybe this good run in the stock market is over” and “I made good money in CDs” - I don’t have the same opt...
by Engineer250
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782248

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Many of the places where they are stagnant are in human terms much pleasanter places to live. Typical midwest bias :wink: Homes in my neighborhood have gone up almost 300% since the 1980s. I calculate about a 4.4% annualized return. Of course money in the stock market would have done much better. Y...
by Engineer250
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782248

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Investing in stocks seems so weird. You have to expect to lose a bunch of money periodically, and that this is a good thing and not a bad thing because you can buy even more at lower prices and that the stock market is just joining AA to correct it's excesses and become a better person. It's like e...
by Engineer250
Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782248

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I did all my end of year buying on Tuesday (when it almost recovered and stayed flat). I don't have much left to buy into it for the rest of the year, so expect it to keep going down. In other news, while I am putting in less money the student loans are also in freefall and 10% paid off after 3 mont...
by Engineer250
Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782248

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Sometimes I think this is my favorite thread. Sorry Taylor, nisiprius, Lady Geek, nedsaid, livesoft, et al who offer better educated and analytical analysis of markets and investing (edit: than I). I was trying to talk to my husband about the inverting or possible inverting of the bond yield curve ...
by Engineer250
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782248

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:13 pm
@Hiwatter, WanderingDoc thinks highly of rental properties.
Can we get some real estate, gold, and crypto currency dedicated threads? So these guys can stay out of the index fund threads? I don’t show up at real estate forums and tell everyone they are stupid and should be buying index funds.
by Engineer250
Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782248

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:36 am
I’m forbidden by law from setting up or contributing to a tax advantaged arraignment. I do fully fund Roth IRAs for my children.
If I had a dollar for every Boglehead fully funding their kids’ Roth IRAs...I would have been able to max my own this year :greedy :beer
by Engineer250
Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve Report: Millennials are poorer than previous generations
Replies: 17
Views: 2240

Re: Federal Reserve Report: Millennials are poorer than previous generations

Part of it was the hit they took in 09. The other part is that they are still waiting to be rewarded for their existence :D The baby boomers that raised them did a great disservice teaching millennials to behave/think that way. Amen I see a lot of Boomer and older Xer parents on here setting up Rot...
by Engineer250
Fri Nov 30, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Unveils Plans for Expanding Withdrawal Options
Replies: 27
Views: 2321

Re: TSP Unveils Plans for Expanding Withdrawal Options

Oh. Well let's make sure we discuss this again in another year. :sharebeer
by Engineer250
Thu Nov 29, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Unveils Plans for Expanding Withdrawal Options
Replies: 27
Views: 2321

Re: TSP Unveils Plans for Expanding Withdrawal Options

The lack of the ability to make in-plan Roth conversions will cause me to withdraw hundreds of thousands of dollars more from the TSP next September than I would have otherwise withdrawn had they permitted in-plan Roth conversions. I don’t know why this is such a big deal. My Vanguard 401k doesn’t ...
by Engineer250
Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Unveils Plans for Expanding Withdrawal Options
Replies: 27
Views: 2321

Re: TSP Unveils Plans for Expanding Withdrawal Options

The lack of the ability to make in-plan Roth conversions will cause me to withdraw hundreds of thousands of dollars more from the TSP next September than I would have otherwise withdrawn had they permitted in-plan Roth conversions. MichDad I don’t know why this is such a big deal. My Vanguard 401k ...
by Engineer250
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 553
Views: 60525

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Can't keep this market down, climbing back up!
by Engineer250
Thu Nov 22, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 27
Views: 2740

Re: Inflation

Inflation is going to come from only one source: Fed printing more currency (how else is the govt going to pay interest on the debt pile). There's an economic theory (Modern Monetary Theory) that says, in part, high deficits cause high inflation. Increased taxation is a method to reduce the monetar...
by Engineer250
Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782248

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

So if both indices and bonds are down, then where is the money going? Cash. As in savings accounts. I'm paying off student loans, which is similar. While I think this little blip is actually a big nothing, and that personal investors don't drive the stock market, it is interesting to remember all t...
by Engineer250
Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?
Replies: 225
Views: 18392

Re: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?

Like everyone else I am getting the “you have no eligible funds” message even though I do. Also my brokerage option inside my 401k doesn’t have the same icons so I suspect I will have to manually exchange those for the admiral. But I’m okay with that. I can be patient and wait a couple weeks while ...
by Engineer250
Mon Nov 19, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?
Replies: 225
Views: 18392

Re: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vanguard-ratchets-up-index-fund-price-battle-1542636000 For those not behind the paywall. Starting Monday, the firm is lowering the minimums for admiral shares—a share class that costs less than regular investor classes—to $3,000 from $10,000 for 38 index mutual funds. ...
by Engineer250
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782248

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Sorry it’s my fault. I’m putting extra money towards debt not buying index funds. So expect the volatility to continue.
by Engineer250
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782248

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Reading through this thread, it amazes me how many Bogleheads succumb to market timing and buying high/selling low. The theoretical 'everybody indexes and price discovery disappears' is never going to happen. Actually most posts are jokes. About a 100 pages back I did a statistical analysis of peop...
by Engineer250
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782248

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I believe that another factor is ruthless cost cutting. Also profit margins are at or near all-time highs. The low hanging fruit has been plucked. The easiest way to grow earnings is to merge with another company and fire redundant employees. As the pointy haired boss in the Dilbert cartoon famousl...
by Engineer250
Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 129
Views: 15178

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

There have been many previous posts about best places to retire. :twisted: https://www.google.com/search?sitesearch=bogleheads.org&q=best+place+to+retire BTW: Where is crazytown? Are you talking about the bar on Broadway in Nashville? I prefer to retire in funkytown not crazytown (though I might be...
by Engineer250
Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 553
Views: 60525

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Anyone else excited to see 10 year treasury yields finally hanging on above 3% again? I'll be interested when they're at 6%, but that could mean high expected inflation and/or high economic growth. The fact that short-term treasuries are close, flatter yield curve, doesn't get me excited to lend mo...
by Engineer250
Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 553
Views: 60525

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Anyone else excited to see 10 year treasury yields finally hanging on above 3% again?
by Engineer250
Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 107982

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Don't automatically assume that "Bogleheads tend to be from the fortunate side of Americans". Many Bogleheads worked hard and saved to achieve a measure of success. Not everyone here has had things handed to her. Not everyone here was born into wealth or privilege. Success for many here started wit...
by Engineer250
Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 107982

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

this thread has reminded me to buy international this week buy low sell high is nice Could you do just as well by shorting the USD ? “For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start. America’s golden goose of commerce and innovation will continue to la...
by Engineer250
Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 21593

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

Not that it's relevant to anything I do, but I have a vague feeling this market still has a couple more years of upside before stalling. Economy's doing well, company fundamentals are good, inflation is a threat especially with tarriffs on the horizon, and we're nowhere close to the craziness of Y2...
by Engineer250
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?
Replies: 110
Views: 5987

Re: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?

Company in my industry won a large contract last week. I found out at the same time the world did. But even if I had some sort of industry knowledge that they were going to win...their stock is down 2% since then. My "beef" with stock picking, even when your information is good, is that sometimes st...
by Engineer250
Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 553
Views: 60525

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

My buddy Skysoldier was number 1 at 10 AM in his prediction of the S&P. He is torn between wanting to win the contest and have bragging rights or wanting me to be right with my high prediction. He has come down on the side of his portfolio and he wants my high prediction to be acciurate. I will buy...
by Engineer250
Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 553
Views: 60525

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

When the threads pop up about 100% stocks, it tells me that lots of folks have already forgotten the pain of the 2000-2002 and the 2008-2009 bear markets. Could be that the veterans remember this and that maybe these threads are from newer investors and newer forum members. It would be interesting ...
by Engineer250
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 553
Views: 60525

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

youdiditr2 wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:07 am
this post means we're offical at the top!!!! Track performance since this post!
Top isn't until 2020. Trust me. Better put away this crystal ball.
by Engineer250
Mon Aug 20, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Median pay for 30 Bay Area companies
Replies: 7
Views: 1677

Re: Median pay for 30 Bay Area companies

Like livesoft would say, garbage in, garbage out. It lists the median pay of 30 "Bay Area" companies but doesn't list what the median pay is for their Bay Area based employees specifically. For example, the average pay for Intel is listed at $102k but that includes the wages of every manufacturing ...
by Engineer250
Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you measure % of international holdings?
Replies: 10
Views: 917

Re: How do you measure % of international holdings?

My allocation is zero, so it's the same regardless. I believe most people measure it such that the total of the portfolio = 100% ... UNLESS they specifically mention "of their equity allocation" Well my bond allocation is 0. So my international is the same percentage either way as well, 50% :shareb...
by Engineer250
Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 10682

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

I don't think awareness of a good faith best estimate of how things might play out in the medium-term necessarily equates to market timing. In my view their are three valid aspects to consider. 1. A person in their heavy-lifting accumulation years might consider a higher contribution rate if they h...
by Engineer250
Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory
Replies: 65
Views: 9370

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Since the mid 2000's, in China, you have a leader who made himself leader for life, in Russia, Putin has invaded Ukraine & made himself leader for life & the same for Turkey (leader for life). All the trends are moving in the wrong directions in those countries. As these leaders gain power, the sit...
by Engineer250
Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 10682

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

If you go back in time and read 10 year predictions written in 2008, would they have been this precise? I would wager a high percentage were wrong. You made me curious so I tried to find some of their old research papers to see. From one in 2009: Given early 2009 stock valuation levels, our analysi...
by Engineer250
Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 48
Views: 5821

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

Mines right on track between 2005/2006 with the chart, that's including the employer match and only half of 2005. I'm a bit behind. But was making $30k a year in 2005 so not capable of maxing out by putting about 50% of my income into my 401k. I suspect that is where most people are. Bogleheads are...
by Engineer250
Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 107982

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I swear if it weren't for threads on this forum I'd have no idea what my investments were even doing. The major news outlets cover DJIA and sometimes S&P, but it's easy even with that to forget past the day-to-day and what it's actually doing this year or last five years or whatever. I'm a market ca...
by Engineer250
Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another Roth vs Traditional Debate
Replies: 21
Views: 1961

Re: Another Roth vs Traditional Debate

One of the arguments for going traditional is you can do Roth conversions in later years. Your scenario blows that up. I've never understood the argument that Roths may be banned and taxed retroactively (which would be extraordinary) but tax rates won't go up (which has happened frequently historic...
by Engineer250
Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6858

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

I agree. But anecdotally it feels like inflation is picking up faster than CDs/savings rates/treasury rates. I am too tired/lazy to look up rather my "feeling" has any connection with reality. But nonetheless, it's a concern. That inflation is going to pick up regardless, so I would kind of like tr...
by Engineer250
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6858

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

I hope he’s right. That would be just fine with me. I would like to see higher rates as well. Every time the 10-year treasury yield drops back below 3% I am disappointed. Would like to see it comfortably above 3. Higher 'real' interest rates might be nice, higher rates that are actually a negative ...
by Engineer250
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6858

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

bondsr4me wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:32 pm
I hope he’s right.

That would be just fine with me.
I would like to see higher rates as well. Every time the 10-year treasury yield drops back below 3% I am disappointed. Would like to see it comfortably above 3.
by Engineer250
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 14867

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

I'm in agreement with the premise. But this post proved nothing. Why not backtest some target retirement funds vs age-in-bond portfolios? Because this ISN’T about performance chasing, past or future. How is comparing age in bonds to several companies' target funds any more meaningful? It's not. A m...
by Engineer250
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 14867

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

I'm in agreement with the premise.

But this post proved nothing. Why not backtest some target retirement funds vs age-in-bond portfolios?
by Engineer250
Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So go the FAANG, so goes the market?
Replies: 41
Views: 4765

Re: So go the FAANG, so goes the market?

There are about 1 to 2 million species of animals. 350,000 of them are beetles. Beetles account for between 17% and 35% of all of the animal species on Earth. Should we view this with alarm? Well I wasn't worried about all this other stuff, but now I'm kinda worried about our new beetle overlords. ...
by Engineer250
Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are millennials botching their asset allocations?
Replies: 68
Views: 7822

Re: Are millennial botching their asset allocations?

As a 27 year old who frequents this website, I am not botching my asset allocations. However, I do find concerning the number of my friends/coworkers who have either little to no ability to save, no concern about their retirement, or just trusting their financial advisor blindly. Same. I’m also 27,...
by Engineer250
Sun Jul 29, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying a home [as a safe investment]
Replies: 42
Views: 3402

Re: Buying a home

+1 - at the end of the day, everyone wants to purchase a house and wants people to tell them it was the best financial decision they ever made. By the way, a rental can also be a home. I'd say at the end of the day, we all justify our financial decisions, and say they were worth it even if for reas...
by Engineer250
Sun Jul 29, 2018 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying a home [as a safe investment]
Replies: 42
Views: 3402

Re: Buying a home

Don't you have to account for investing the difference? Especially among BHs, that is what they are doing with their excess cash that they aren't spending on housing costs. That $50,000 down payment, invested 30 years ago in Vanguard's S&P 500 investor fund, would be worth almost $1MM today. 10 yea...
by Engineer250
Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying a home [as a safe investment]
Replies: 42
Views: 3402

Re: Buying a home

Don't you have to account for investing the difference? Especially among BHs, that is what they are doing with their excess cash that they aren't spending on housing costs. That $50,000 down payment, invested 30 years ago in Vanguard's S&P 500 investor fund, would be worth almost $1MM today. 10 yea...