Search found 813 matches

by SamB
Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 214064

Re: Vanguard Notice Regarding Failed Bank CDs - Questions

Back in the '80's you had the Maryland Savings & Loan failures. My wife had a $25K certificate of deposit at one of the S&L's. It took the better part of a year to retrieve the principal. I don't remember if any interest was paid. If this current process takes two weeks, consider yourself lucky. Also, if you think interest rates are high now, you need to go look at a little history.
by SamB
Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]
Replies: 2923
Views: 521116

Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

I have lived in Northern Virginia since 1976. There have been booms and busts during all the years since. It is a terrible time to buy a house. If it does not go bust this year or next year, just wait. I think the last time around the fellow that bought a house down the street from us waited for ten years after the purchase to break even. I remember a home on the market for five years in the 90's. Apparently they bought at a peak, and somehow did not understand that the selling price has absolutely nothing to do with what you paid for it. Then there is always the possibility that what you bought never recovers in price during your lifetime. I grew up in Detroit in the 50's and 60's, and I would never, ever consider real estate as an investm...
by SamB
Wed Mar 24, 2021 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]
Replies: 2923
Views: 521116

Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

I have lived in this area since 1976. There have been a number of real estate bubbles, and this certainly looks like one of them. The way it works is just like you describe. It lasts for several years and then you have the 8-10 year blowout. In other words you buy at some inflated price and then you wait for 10 years to break even. There is nothing new about this. In fact, it might be a great opportunity for people in Northern Virginia to sell and move to Florida, or Ecuador, or wherever. And for the uninitiated, real estate can decline precipitously, and stay there for a very long time especially on a time scale inconsistent with your life span. I grew up in Detroit in the 50's and 60's, and I am sure glad I did not stay there waiting for ...
by SamB
Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I buy a house in Nova/DC area?
Replies: 23
Views: 3207

Re: Should I buy a house in Nova/DC area?

I have lived in Reston since 1986. We built a house there. The Washington DC area is boom and bust, and prior to Reston I owned a row house in Alexandria ( Arlandria area). That was in 1978. Herndon is nice, but three years is a very short period of time. Just to give you an example, a four bedroom colonial on my street sold for $800K just before the 2008 bust. It sells for about $750K now. My home was built for $192K in '86 and might sell for $765K today. It sounds ok, but I have put far more into the house at this point than the initial cost, and as you can see, a real estate blowout can last for a decade and has done just that over the time I have lived in the Northern Virginia area. Also the busts can last for more than a decade. Someti...
by SamB
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cross-country trip via Amtrak
Replies: 58
Views: 10075

Re: Cross-country trip via Amtrak

I have taken Amtrak from DC to Portland, and also from DC to LA via New Orleans. The northern route went through Chicago where you connected from the Capital Limited to the Empire Builder. I just had a coach seat on this trip, which was interesting, but those days are over. I did the southern route last year via New Orleans. You connect to the Sunset Limited. This trip was more scenic than the Empire Builder route, but I enjoyed both. The DC - Orleans leg was not all that interesting. On both of these trips I scheduled a lay over day at a hotel to insure I made the connection. Amtrak cross country trains are basically tourist trains or for people that hate flying for one reason or the other; they use freight lines which are well maintained,...
by SamB
Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone here with net worths north of $1 mil use financial advisors?
Replies: 454
Views: 87466

Re: Does anyone here with net worths north of $1 mil use financial advisors?

I will pay an attorney (legal issues), CPA (tax questions), or some kind of insurance expert, which is rarely a salesman. But asset allocation - what to own and when? You must be kidding, right?
by SamB
Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to leave our dentist??
Replies: 54
Views: 9749

Re: Time to leave our dentist??

It might be time to shop around, but I hate to break the news to you. Your dental health is a direct function of what you eat and when you eat it. I am speaking of the dental decay problem. Maybe you should start thinking about it, and look up Westin Price. I am not making any food recommendations, just pointing to a dentist that did a great deal of research on dental health. If that is the case, perhaps you can explain why, when we grew up at the time when people actually ate sit down meals at home, my mother and I had many fillings and my Dad and brother had almost none, same dentist. This is what Westin Price was trying to explain and that is why I mentioned him. One fellow above gives a percentage breakdown for environment versus genes...
by SamB
Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to leave our dentist??
Replies: 54
Views: 9749

Re: Time to leave our dentist??

It might be time to shop around, but I hate to break the news to you. Your dental health is a direct function of what you eat and when you eat it. I am speaking of the dental decay problem.

Maybe you should start thinking about it, and look up Westin Price. I am not making any food recommendations, just pointing to a dentist that did a great deal of research on dental health.
by SamB
Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else gotten totally bored with investing?
Replies: 142
Views: 26910

Re: Anyone else gotten totally bored with investing?

I got bored with it about 20 years ago. It took years, reading numerous books, and thinking about it to realize what was possible. That effort was necessary because it established a working frame work, and the realization that I could not do any better. Of all things financial asset allocation is the simplest, but realizing it is not so simple. Most people will never get there.

Legal issues, tax issues are much more complicated and may be the only consideration complicating an asset allocation. If I do have to devote any time to finance it is because of tax or legal issues. My rate of return is the market rate, minus my costs, and it became obvious years ago.
by SamB
Tue Apr 11, 2017 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are people aware that Verizon email is being terminated?
Replies: 67
Views: 22567

Re: Are people aware that Verizon email is being terminated?

I use Outlook so I have not decided whether I may use the Gmail account only or stick with AOL. It really bothers me that now I have to suffer the ads on the AOL interface. There are no ads on the Gmail interface, but you have to downgrade the Google security setting in order to make a connection with Outlook. Are you sure about that? I thought you could just use a Google App Password generated for you (by Google) to use Outlook with Gmail. I'm not a maven about this, but I think it's the case. In order to use Outlook 2013 I had to go into account settings, and respond to this, Allow less secure apps: OFF Some apps and devices use less secure sign-in technology, which could leave your account vulnerable. You can turn off access for these a...
by SamB
Mon Apr 10, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are people aware that Verizon email is being terminated?
Replies: 67
Views: 22567

Re: Are people aware that Verizon email is being terminated?

Maybe I missed it, but there is a simple option involving keeping your verizon email address and using a different server. Go to options, then mail settings in the AOL email interface and select forward all email to your favored address. I did this for Gmail and it worked fine, without any delay. You can do the same thing from the Gmail side by specifying that Gmail download the mail coming to the Verizon account. There may be some delay if you go this route and you would have to also specify deleting the email off the AOL server after it is downloaded. I use Outlook so I have not decided whether I may use the Gmail account only or stick with AOL. It really bothers me that now I have to suffer the ads on the AOL interface. There are no ads ...
by SamB
Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why can't I save enough to have decent vacation or restaurant meal
Replies: 125
Views: 16159

Re: Why can't I save enough to have decent vacation or restaurant meal

I am 70 years old, and I am sure glad that when I was 40 we went camping for vacation, and the restaurant meals fell into the category of almost never. In fact, since both my wife and I cook, restaurants are one perpetual disappointment. Looked at from a financial perspective, life is one big trade off between present and future consumption. Be very careful about what you consider "decent" present consumption, especially if it is discretionary. Here is an example for you. My wife's parents were immigrants from eastern Europe after WWII. It was leave or die. They settled in Chicago, about three miles from a steel mill. Her father got a job as a laborer at the mill. It was unionized, and the mill was at full capacity his whole caree...
by SamB
Fri Feb 24, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talking with parents' financial advisor
Replies: 52
Views: 7372

Re: Talking with parents' financial advisor

You are wasting your time. The whole passive/Vanguard investment idea is extremely simple and very counter intuitive; being average in the short term at the lowest possible cost will compound to make you above average in the long term. Most people will never, ever get this. For those who do and have basically spent years reading and thinking about it in order to change their financial DNA it still does not amount to a free lunch. It is just the best you can do with near 100% certainty. You still experience the pain, and must exercise self control that is very different from what most people are capable of. You should spend your time managing your own financial affairs so that you might be able to help your parents in the future. It could be...
by SamB
Fri Feb 10, 2017 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Plumbing issue - advice sought
Replies: 47
Views: 5187

Re: Plumbing issue - advice sought

You need to open up the ceiling and locate the source of the leak. I have had active leaks in copper pressure pipe (a pin hole in an elbow fitting), a joint in a PVC drainage pipe that did not get enough adhesive, and a vent pipe that actually sheared in expansion because it was constrained by a wood wedge in the hole it ran through. There was no water of course, but the pipe was venting into the wall for 30 years. I forgot to mention another problem with copper pipe which was exposed during the kitchen remodeling. It was deteriorating at a coupling. Remember also that where the water shows up on the ceiling is not necessarily close to the source. The ceiling may not be perfectly flat and the water will accumulate at the lowest point. My ne...
by SamB
Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 81843

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

I stopped looking at percentages about five years ago. The risk is handled by the total bond type investment, which in this case turns out to be the TSP G fund. You step back and ask yourself what is the maximum in this fund to hold during the zombie apocalypse? That is your insurance policy. In other words how long can you go when the market drops 80%, your pensions/annuity is cut in half, all of those guaranteed government entitlements are cut in half, etc. The G fund in my case is the backup. Given the bond rates of return being far from what I consider normal in my investment lifetime, which dates from about 1976, I do not even consider bonds an investment. Their value (not the G fund) is inflated beyond anything I have seen in my lifet...
by SamB
Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Predicting future Net Worth
Replies: 31
Views: 6866

Re: Predicting future Net Worth

Maybe I missed it, but I did not see Financial Engines mentioned. That may be helpful. I used to use it, but I am passed the time when it is really relevant, and I don't need it now. My experience, dating from 1978, is that you can get long stretches (10-20 years) when the return stays low, and long stretches when it remains high. For me, the span of years between 1980 and 2000 determined my retirement wealth. Basically, not much has happened in the last 15 years. My experience was a Dow Change from 750 to 14000. Contrast that to the change between the year 2000 and the present. My opinion is that you should take Financial Engines seriously, and pay particular interest to the tails of the distribution, because if you think you cannot end up...
by SamB
Thu Dec 15, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru Outbacks - any owners here?
Replies: 36
Views: 6131

Re: Subaru Outbacks - any owners here?

I am 69 and have owned a 1995 Subaru Legacy L wagon (AWD). This car preceded the Outback. It is an AWD wagon, but has a slightly lower center of gravity, and is slightly smaller than the Outback. It is interesting that the Outback actually has a smaller hatch opening than my old Legacy L. My wagon has 169K miles on it, and the extra expense was associated with engine seals (they leak) and wheel bearings. The wheel bearings will cost more to replace because of the AWD. I am assuming that Subaru is better about leaking seals after 21 years. The Outback has a timing chain, not a belt which had to be replaced three times on the Legacy L. I put in a new clutch, but an automatic may not have had any problem other than fluid changes. The Subaru is...
by SamB
Tue Nov 15, 2016 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Accident in new car - questions
Replies: 16
Views: 3720

Re: Accident in new car - questions

I would not insist that Toyota fix the car. Very often dealerships contract out a repair to a local shop depending on the make, age of the car, and type of repair. In fact, if you had a very old Toyota it might be more likely that they hired a subcontractor to fix it.
by SamB
Sat Nov 12, 2016 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?
Replies: 155
Views: 29741

Re: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?

If you are cooking most of your food, I would not be concerned about the grocery bill. Take a keen interest in nutrition, and it will pay off financially in the long run, especially for your children. In fact, I would monitor what your children eat outside of the house. It may not be as healthy as you assume it is. As far as what constitutes nutritious food, you are pretty much on your own. I would spend more time trying to figure this out than you spend with your investments, which, if you subscribe to the philosophy on this forum should be pretty close to zero. If you think a particular dietary/food mix is better, then verify it with your own blood tests. We are all different. There are many ways to be frugal, but if you are preparing you...
by SamB
Wed Nov 02, 2016 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Deleted
Replies: 26
Views: 5085

Re: leaf blower, chainsaw, hedger or single tool

I use a Stihl backpack blower and I also use a chipper/shredder to mulch the leaves. I recommend getting professional quality equipment. You will only have to buy it once and it will last twenty years. The leaf mulch is used on plant beds near the house rather than wood mulch which might draw termites.
by SamB
Sun Jul 10, 2016 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco Tires - Anyone ever frustrated?
Replies: 86
Views: 39093

Re: Costco Tires - Anyone ever frustrated?

Costco over torqued my lug nuts and most of the stud bolts had to be replaced. I pay my local shop $20 for a rotation when they change the oil and filter. I used to do this all myself, but I figured at age 69 I would rather do something else - like wait while someone else does it.

Costco is overrated. I can actually talk to the owner at my local shop that I have been dealing with for 25 years and the owner takes me seriously when I tell him not to over torque the lug nuts.

If you are not willing to do it yourself find a local shop and pay to have it done. I am a Costco member, but I doubt that I will ever buy tires from them again. I might buy a battery, but I would install it myself.
by SamB
Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Problems with Exterior Paint Job on Home
Replies: 13
Views: 1989

Re: Problems with Exterior Paint Job on Home

Wood is problematic and I would spend money replacing it, not trying to redo what you already have. I used to paint my own wood trim and brick molding. I regret wasting my time even though the saved money went into index funds. Wood deteriorates over time, and the average moisture content will gradually rise. Painting it, no matter how meticulous you are with the prep, will be an eventual lost cause as it ages. The only reservation I have about the company you hired is that they should have explained this to you. A high-end company will refuse some jobs because they don't want to deal with unpredictable results. However, when they suggest what actually has to be done, and how much it costs, they get out bid by a chain trying to make a quick...
by SamB
Wed May 18, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Emergency Preparedness
Replies: 75
Views: 10648

Re: Emergency Preparedness

I think that it is prudent to have back up food, water, medical, power, etc. in case of a disaster, natural or otherwise. I think the term "prepper," or worse yet, "survivalist" have become pejoratives and that is unfortunate in my opinion. Politics gets wrapped in the history of these terms, but basically the more independent and self sufficient you are, the greater your ability to help others as well as yourself.

Preparedness extends all the way from being able to handle an auto breakdown on the side of a freeway to the dreaded zombie apocalypse. You have to figure out what kind of risks you want to mitigate and the cost. Not to do so, is pretending that there are no risks.
by SamB
Wed May 18, 2016 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Arrgghhh !!! Windows 10 installed overnight
Replies: 92
Views: 15029

Re: Arrgghhh !!! Windows 10 installed overnight

I have two PC's and one laptop. The only PC I have successfully installed 10 on was the oldest, running 7. I initially went through the upgrade and then decided to take the revert option because it was slower. The reversion was unsuccessful and the result was that I could not reboot in any mode. I installed the original Windows 7 OS, and then did the 10 install on top of that OS. There were no other SW apps installed. I got a clean 10 install without any corruption. Dell will not support 10 on my old laptop, and true to form 10 will not work on that laptop. I tried to upgrade from 8.1 on the new PC, and both times the upgrade resulted in numerous sources of corruption. For example right clicking the mouse over the left appearing windows log...
by SamB
Fri May 06, 2016 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Roof (potential) issues and choices (past/present)
Replies: 29
Views: 4773

Re: Roof (potential) issues and choices (past/present)

I don't know what roof geometry you have, but I would consider the soffit vents and vent ridge. The last time I had the roof done, which involved complete shingle removal, I had the attic fan removed. It never lasted more than five years, and you could hear it when it ran. Adequate soffit vents along with the vent ridge have always been a better solution for adequate ventilation. I would also ask about the quality of any bathroom fan vents, and rubber boots that are installed around the plumbing vent(s). Very often roofers will use the cheapest vent they can find at the local HD or similar. This is not a good idea. I had two popped rivets on a cheap exhaust vent which resulted in water leakage down the duct connecting the vent to the bathro...
by SamB
Wed May 04, 2016 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First time home buying, need advice!
Replies: 35
Views: 5106

Re: First time home buying, need advice!

I am not going to bother with the monthly cash flow analysis. I have been at this for 38 years and my increase in wealth over that time did not come from real estate. It came from saving and investment in the equity market, and that investment pretty much followed the approach on this forum way before it was fashionable. The only reason I would buy a home is because it is a consumption that I want to make. I have never treated it as an investment. In your case it would amount to a huge concentration of wealth in one asset and that is a bad move. You do not have to look very far to view real estate purchases in various cities and towns around the country that were worthless thirty years later and they remain so. Based on the information you ...
by SamB
Thu Apr 28, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are females just not interested in investing in general or is it just the women that I date?
Replies: 89
Views: 14166

Re: Are females just not interested in investing in general or is it just the women that I date?

My experience is that it is really difficult to generalize about sex and financial interests. I have known women who had the financial responsibility in their family which was abdicated by their husbands, and vice versa. However, I will hazard to generalize about money and compatibility. It would be very difficult if two people were in perpetual conflict on this front. That does not mean you have to agree on everything, but if one person takes the lead, the other has to agree on the big issues.
by SamB
Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2016
Replies: 12
Views: 2161

Re: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2016

If you scroll down the linked page you find, "Fat: The New Health Paradigm." This is one of the most unbiased nutritional assessments I have seen. I guess it is because they don't really care how it all comes out. They are just attempting to predict public perceptions and spending patterns based on the research.
by SamB
Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Weight Loss Plans?
Replies: 178
Views: 22111

Re: Weight Loss Plans?

Watch this movie, [Link removed by admin LadyGeek, see below.], and start looking into the hormonal theory of obesity. The Germans lost the war, but they sure got this one right. Things have been down hill ever since the endocrinologists lost their minds on this one.

Note that the guy in the movie did not eat less, and had no change in exercise. His health tanked in about two months. Luckily it is reversible.
by SamB
Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What growth rate would you use?
Replies: 75
Views: 7238

Re: What growth rate would you use?

My growth rate since 1989 has been slightly more than 8 percent. However, I am a lot more pessimistic now than I was in 1989, and I use 6% for an 80/20 portfolio. I just cannot see stocks march ahead at 8% nominal with GDP at 2% or less. There would have to be wholesale changes in the US economy, institutional change, technology, etc. And as far as technology is concerned I am very underwhelmed. The biggest changes occurred at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century. What is happening now is not of that magnitude. However, it could change of course, but I certainly cannot predict it. The only way I could justify 8% is if, I was aware that stocks have not done much of anything in 15 years, and I could not be bothered by the his...
by SamB
Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you pay for exercise?
Replies: 222
Views: 24804

Re: Do you pay for exercise?

I exercise every day, but not because I think it has anything to do with my BMI, or health for that matter. I like being outside, and I am a life long biker. So, every day I either walk, or bike, just because I enjoy it. The thought of going to a gym, and working some type of exercise machine, would be something akin to torture. I honestly do not understand why people do it. If you are into weight lifting, boxing, gymnastics, or some other sport that you enjoy, it would make sense to me, but otherwise, I would either find something that I enjoy or just not do it. Growing up in the 50's and 60's I do not remember any fitness/gyms for the purpose of helping people stay fit for whatever reason. Exercise was always associated with some sport. I...
by SamB
Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Reviews
Replies: 11
Views: 1467

Re: Amazon Reviews

[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]
by SamB
Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Saving for the future vs you only live once
Replies: 72
Views: 14397

Re: Saving for the future vs you only live once

I am 68 and I can say without any reservation that I am thankful every day I get out of bed that I was a cheap SOB, and put every dime I ever had in the stock market beginning about 1978. The fact is your body is going to wear out on you. Eventually, you will have health problems or at least limitations you are going to have to deal with. And of course you will want to provide for your children and not be a burden in old age. Trading off present for future consumption has been a life long balancing act every day I have gotten out of bed. And at this point, I am quite satisfied that I did what I did forty years ago. I look around me, and life could be a whole lot more difficult. Old age is not for wimps, and if you don't have a dime, you wil...
by SamB
Sat Jan 09, 2016 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bad health news, rethinking everything
Replies: 40
Views: 9336

Re: Bad health news, rethinking everything

Apparently you are not an oncologist, but I would start with Thomas Seyfried (Boston College) and go from there. What do you have to lose? You might be able to tilt the odds in your favor over your life span. Apparently, your ancestors did just that. It could be that you really do not have all of these financial considerations that you bring up. But, one thing is for sure, you cannot follow the crowd.
by SamB
Thu Jan 07, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheap source of Science Diet Optimal Care cat food?
Replies: 25
Views: 5227

Re: Cheap source of Science Diet Optimal Care cat food?

I used to drive 25 miles to our old vet to buy Science Diet until I got interested in my own nutrition and then my cat's. I read the label on the bag and could not believe what I was reading. Start doing some research. Your cat is a carnivore. The only reason farmers feed their livestock grain is to fatten them up for slaughter. Basically, that is what a lot of cheap pet foods do. Your cat needs fat and protein with a mix of vitamins and minerals. It does not need grain of any kind.

The first thing a lion or tiger goes after in the body of their prey is the body organs - high fat, and high micro-nutrient content. That ought to tell you something about what your cat should be fed.
by SamB
Thu Dec 24, 2015 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Performance?
Replies: 45
Views: 6947

Re: Vanguard Personal Performance?

1yr - .9%
3yrs - 11.6%
5yrs - 10.7%
10yrs - 7%

Basically, it has been a lousy 15 years. I started in 1978 and I don't ever expect to see what happened between 1980 and 2000 in the stock market again in my lifetime. That said, the last 15 years have been a good time for young people to place their bets, if that is what they want to do.
by SamB
Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next year is the year for stock picking....
Replies: 26
Views: 4014

Re: Next year is the year for stock picking....

In any market, up or down, active investors (stock pickers) will collectively earn the market average return minus that group's collective expenses. If you are in the group indexing the entire market then you earn the market return with 100% certainty minus the expenses which ought to be substantially less than the average expenses for the stock pickers (active investors). Pick whatever time span you want, or characterization of the market change during that time period, your chances of beating the passive group minus their expenses will be less than 50% because of the expenses of the active group. The greater the expense difference between passive and active the lower the probability that you will beat the so-called passive investment grou...
by SamB
Tue Dec 22, 2015 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you handle auto care? (for a non-DIY'er)
Replies: 54
Views: 7050

Re: How do you handle auto care? (for a non-DIY'er)

This is a real do-it-yourself proposition. I stumbled over a local shop about 30 years ago; they are not a chain, but a family owned business. The quality of the work I get on my car is totally a function of who they hire. Their shop works on all makes and models, trucks, RV's, even boat engines. They are equipped to do pretty much any repair, and they have relationships with machine shops. They also do contract work for dealers that do not want to work on a 30 year old car that someone brings in. If you thought that your dealer would not subcontract the work on your 30 year old Mustang you would be wrong. I have never had this shop recommend any work that was not absolutely needed. Of course they are in it for the long term, and they are w...
by SamB
Sun Nov 29, 2015 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru Blues
Replies: 103
Views: 18187

Re: Subaru Blues

I have a 1995 Legacy L wagon AWD with about 155kmiles on it. I can see why many people like the Subaru, but AWD is basically twice as much trouble as 2WD, and the Subaru engine is prone to engine seal leaks. So in the 20 years I have owned the car, all of the wheel bearings have been replaced and I just had the clutch replaced. The car has a timing belt so that is the usual timing belt/water pump scenario every 50-60K miles. Oil leaks from seals are pretty much off and on over the life of the car. If I had it to do over again, I would never buy an AWD car; I just don't need it. I think most people that pay the extra money for AWD cars don't really need them in terms of avoiding getting stuck in snow, etc. I keep the Subaru because it was th...
by SamB
Wed Nov 25, 2015 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Monte Carlo question
Replies: 44
Views: 7131

Re: The Monte Carlo question

I have used the basic Monte Carlo simulation for the last 25 years. It is very useful for estimating future uncertainty, and doing sensitivity analysis involving time, rates of return, and variance. The worst thing you can do is type mean values in a spreadsheet and base your planning on the results. You could however bracket the mean values and look at those, but then you are really moving back toward the Monte Carlo results.

Nobody is average and neither is your retirement portfolio. If you are not using some kind of method such as Monte Carlo to estimate the range of possibilities then you are not managing your risk at all.
by SamB
Sun Nov 22, 2015 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would you estimate for return?
Replies: 28
Views: 3921

Re: What would you estimate for return?

Geormetric mean since 1989 is 8% and the arithmetic mean is 8.8%. One standard deviation is about 13%. The difference in the returns reflects the risk, or about one half the variance. The last five years have are hardly been what I would consider normal, or what I would base an estimated return on. My best guess would be the nominal returns above, but then 80's and 90's were spectacular return wise. The stock market really has been flat for the last 15 years, when you consider the DOW was about 750 in the late 70's when I started investing. So go ahead and place a bet. That is what I did in 1978. There is no reason to believe that your bet will turn out like mine, but I think using the last five years is a bit primitive. I keep being impres...
by SamB
Sat Nov 07, 2015 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco auto buying service is USELESS!
Replies: 43
Views: 32289

Re: Costco auto buying service is USELESS!

I use the USAA buying service. You can see the price immediately, and you do not have to trigger the dealer notification. The real advantage of this immediate feedback is that you can track the prices throughout the year. You can also change zip codes to see the price fluctuation. Depending on inventories and demand there is a huge monthly price fluctuation. Prices are generally the worst when the cars are on sale, which is accompanied by an aggressive sales campaign.
by SamB
Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Organic Food: Costco vs Trader Joe's vs Local Super market
Replies: 33
Views: 7746

Re: Organic Food: Costco vs Trader Joe's vs Local Super market

For me this is an apples and oranges comparison. In my area Trader Joe's is a step down in quality from Costco. Costco has reasonable prices on fairly high end items. I would put Trader Joes's in the middle as far as quality is concerned.

I have yet to get a consistent definition of organic. Although, I buy organic produce sometimes. The reason is it tastes better, and the price difference is not something I am concerned about.

It is possible to get bad produce, for example mushy apples, at Costco just as it is at Trader Joes.
by SamB
Tue Oct 27, 2015 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bavaria - Bike Touring?
Replies: 12
Views: 1850

Re: Bavaria - Bike Touring?

This is not specifically Bavaria, but there is a paved bike trail along the Danube south of Vilshofen. We did the river boat cruise from Budapest to Vilshofen and there was an option to take the bike for 20 miles on the bike trail along the shore and meet the boat at the next city, Durnstein to Melk. The trail was very popular and apparently many people were taking biking vacations along this trail. I heartily recommend it. Note that it was all paved bike trail, no roads involved. It looked to me like bike touring could be tricky in some very scenic areas, for example the lakes region in Austria. This area was heavily traveled by tour buses and cars and there were no shoulders for bikers. Amawaterways has partnered with Backroads, and they ...
by SamB
Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bicycle commuting
Replies: 91
Views: 10207

Re: Bicycle commuting

I've done some simple math and concluded I've saved over $500 on gas alone, but that is negated by the cost to fuel the extra 600 cals a day :). I would be interested to know how you came up with 600 Kcal/day. 3500 kcal/pound has never been confirmed by any starvation or overfeeding study. In fact, it is not even close. At 9kcal/g for fat you cannot even arrive at the 3500 kcal figure (4086 kcal). Even with various estimates for triglyceride in adipose tissue you can't get to 3500kcal /lb because it varies. In fact, the 9kcal/lb varies. Whatever assumption you are making about your burn rate the big one is probably basal metabolism, and how your hormones are affected by exercising - you may be using more energy while you sleep! Basically I...
by SamB
Mon Oct 05, 2015 8:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Reduce/Reuse, but no Recycle
Replies: 56
Views: 6269

Re: Reduce/Reuse, but no Recycle

I was driving a VW beetle when the rest of the world was blowing past me in a 4000lb, 400 HP monster averaging about 10 mpg. These people invariably bought a new car every two years. I buy a new car every 10 to 20 years, and even when I worked I never drove more than 10K miles per year, and now it is close to 4K miles per year. If I see one more person drive up to the market in a 4000Lb SUV, jump out in the latest spandex attire, and then whip out the environmentally green bags vice the plastic ones, I think I am going to puke. Most of this recycling stuff has always been about absolving the quantitatively challenged from driving around in monster cars, and living in 5000 square foot houses with three car garages. You can also throw in the ...
by SamB
Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total International vs Developed Markets Index Fund
Replies: 20
Views: 5711

Re: Total International vs Developed Markets Index Fund

Whenever I am faced with a comparison like this I just go to the Vanguard website, pull up the fund, switch to "price and performance," and then look at the ten year return plot. I then superimpose the alternative fund to see what the difference amounts to. Most of the time, and this case is no exception, the long term plot shows very little difference. Short term, may show differences. It is kind of like the difference between small caps and mid caps. There is very little over the long term. As pointed out above there are differences in definitions of what belongs in a particular category within an index. However, most of the time this is in the noise. If you are trying to decipher if these small differences make a significant di...
by SamB
Wed Sep 16, 2015 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: McDonald's has good coffee: McDonalds has Senior Coffee
Replies: 92
Views: 31777

Re: McDonald's has good coffee: McDonalds has Senior Coffee

I did not know this. It might be a reason to visit a McDonalds in the future. There is little else on the menu that I would eat or drink. If I bought some kind of combo meal I would have to eat the burger without the bun and throw out the fires. I keep hoping to see some fast food place that goes Paleo, but I doubt that will happen. Real food just does not lend itself to "fast food." It is interesting to me that the fast food industry does not want my money. I would not have any problem paying double or triple for real food, but they don't want my business. Note that a lousy salad with low-fat whatever, is not going to get me in the door. I am definitely not a vegetarian. Since I run on fat, I have no problem not eating for 24 hou...
by SamB
Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Property Tax] To contest or not to contest
Replies: 27
Views: 3251

Re: [Property Tax] To contest or not to contest

Be sure to check the exact description of your property for tax purposes. For 15 years the county assumed I had five bedrooms instead of four. I got a refund of the assessment error for five years.
by SamB
Sun Sep 13, 2015 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please Critique CFP Recommended Portfolio
Replies: 52
Views: 5276

Re: Please Critique CFP Recommended Portfolio

You mean people get paid for this?