Search found 340 matches

by gummy
Thu Aug 19, 2010 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gummy-stuff, eh?
Replies: 29
Views: 8843

The gummy-stuff archive is now located here . The archive has been cleaned up and reorganized, with many duplicate (and some triplicate) spreadsheets removed. Gummy's retired (that's what he says, anyway; this would be the third or fourth time , I think ... WHAT! I've retired at least eight times! ...
by gummy
Sat Jul 31, 2010 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gummy-stuff, eh?
Replies: 29
Views: 8843

Re: Reply to Praxis

... A good place to start viewing is the "index.html" file. Good Luck, Ed http://www.gummy-stuff.org/oops.gif The .rar file, when uncompressed, will have some 6000 files. It's the same set of files that's been on the CD which I've been selling for some time -- and now I'm tired o' that. H...
by gummy
Sat Jul 31, 2010 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gummy-stuff, eh?
Replies: 29
Views: 8843

Re: gummy-stuff, eh?

Okay, so I've finally decided to leave my http://www.gummy-stuff.org sandbox (after all these years, eh?) http://www.gummy-stuff.org/smiley4.gif But all your other articles remain intact? Like this one? m Yup! Everything is there: 972 web pages 4569 pretty pics 573 spreadsheets ------------------ T...
by gummy
Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gummy-stuff, eh?
Replies: 29
Views: 8843

gummy-stuff, eh?

Okay, so I've finally decided to leave my http://www.gummy-stuff.org sandbox (after all these years, eh?) http://www.gummy-stuff.org/smiley4.gif However, I've also decided to make all that "stuff" available here, in compressed format: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/CD-gummy.rar It's (about) 14...
by gummy
Mon Mar 16, 2009 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No more gummy stuff, eh?
Replies: 43
Views: 8753

http://financialwebring.org/gummystuff/ Please contact the_management@financialwebring.org if there are any problems. My apologies to Shakespeare. On the CD I sent him, there's some ... uh ... junk, including an old version of the "main page". Alas, Shakes' link gets you to an old page. F...
by gummy
Sun Mar 15, 2009 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No more gummy stuff, eh?
Replies: 43
Views: 8753

Thanks fellas, for all the kind words. We recently returned from a cruise and I found dozens of e-mails requesting charts, spreadsheets, tutorials, formulas etc. etc. . I suddenly felt my age (74-going-on-90). Anyway, feel free to download, move, modify, regurgitate ... whatever ... anything you fin...
by gummy
Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: invest in... whisky
Replies: 15
Views: 2684

I can recall setting up a spreadsheet and testing it with the DOW components. They all seemed to be down ... so it weren't a good stock selection for testing. While looking about for stocks that actually went UP , I found this guy : http://www.gummy-stuff.org/hi-lo-2.gif When I mentioned this on ano...
by gummy
Sat Feb 14, 2009 3:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another Madoff post: what did he do with the $50 billion
Replies: 26
Views: 4023

Madoff says he lost some $50B. One has to ask: "What $50B?" http://www.gummy-stuff.org/madoff-bill.jpg ------------------------------------------------- Madoff Math #1 I invest $1000 with Madoff and leave it with him for 25 years. He promises me an annual return of 10%. After 25 years I fi...
by gummy
Wed Feb 11, 2009 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I thought for every buyer there was a seller
Replies: 21
Views: 3818

Re: I thought for every buyer there was a seller

Would someone please tell me, where has all of the money gone to? Funny! My wife asked me that same question yesterday (in connection with the money lost in the Madoff scheme). She was thinking or "real" money. I whipped out some charts to illustrate the difference between "real"...
by gummy
Wed Feb 04, 2009 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do you need an annuity?"
Replies: 37
Views: 5518

Re: Gummy

Taylor Larimore wrote:Now I realize you are like the rest of us
Hey Taylor ... that makes me feel warm all over. Image
by gummy
Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do you need an annuity?"
Replies: 37
Views: 5518

Okay, now it's time for me to brag ... jest a bit:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/FWF-2008-contest.htm

Alas, my personal portfolio dropped 50% in 2008. :oops:
by gummy
Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do you need an annuity?"
Replies: 37
Views: 5518

When I retired (in '93) my wife insisted I put half our pension monies into a life annuity. I tried to argue that it was a bad move ... but she always wins these arguments. So I got us a life annuity with a fixed income, guaranteed 15 years (jest in case we both drop dead early), with the Missus get...
by gummy
Sun Jan 25, 2009 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How can I check my internet connectivity speed?
Replies: 42
Views: 7805

http://www.speedtest.net/

Sure you don't mean
6 megabits per second?

6 MBytes = 48 Mbits.

I think the fastest U.S. speed available is 5.6 MBytes at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab.
by gummy
Sun Jan 25, 2009 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GOT ANY PEARLS OF WISDOM FOR BOGLEHEADS BOOK?
Replies: 210
Views: 34529

When possible, use ACTUAL data and not some mathematical proxy.

One should always change the meaning of a word when practising the art of obfuscation. (e.g. 'Risk')

http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Quotes/quoter.htm
by gummy
Thu Dec 25, 2008 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking a back-testing paper
Replies: 384
Views: 50991

For those who like Buy&Sell schemes and thorough backtesting, guaranteed to raise your pulse rate, whet your appetite and initiate coronary palpitations
... here's one suggested by a little-known financial guru:

You flip a coin.
Heads? You Buy.
Tails? You Sell.

http://www.gummy-stuff.org/coin-flip-portfolio.htm

:lol: :lol: :lol:
by gummy
Sun Dec 14, 2008 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Milevsky - The "buckets" myth of retirement invest
Replies: 88
Views: 16320

Re: Milevsky - The "buckets" myth of retirement in

bob90245 wrote:Here is my research:
Harvesting Withdrawals in Retirement
Mamma mia!
Fantastic web site!
I had to link to it from my website. :lol:
by gummy
Mon Dec 08, 2008 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Black Swans and Bogle
Replies: 21
Views: 3641

In fact, Monte Carlo supports the notion that the future cannot be inferred from historical data. There's a fun spreadsheet described here: m You get a single "possible" future with each key press. http://www.gummy-stuff.org/random-SP.gif To suggest that one can (somehow!) "average&qu...
by gummy
Sun Dec 07, 2008 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which study: missing a few rally days and long-term returns?
Replies: 24
Views: 3949

There's a fun spreadsheet described here:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Max-Min-deletions.htm
:lol:
by gummy
Thu Nov 27, 2008 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 18529

If I understand correctly, Milevsky's formula at least computes the probability of being both out of money and still alive. Yes. That Milevsky paper is quite interesting. The authors assume a lognormal distribution of returns and a particular model for life expectancy. Then they calculate the proba...
by gummy
Thu Nov 27, 2008 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 18529

I jest love the direction this thread has taken.
Image
by gummy
Thu Nov 27, 2008 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 18529

Yes those instincts we have are really worth something! SWR calculations and simulations are nice tools and should not be ignored. But real retirement has all the complexities of life in it and modeling all this is not very practical. Roof leaks, car repairs, changes in relative's circumstances, bi...
by gummy
Thu Nov 27, 2008 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 18529

nisiprius wrote:When I consider what an utterly impulsive move our marriage was--and so far, so good--I have to think that you have to trust your instincts, whether your instincts are trustworthy or not.
A great line!!
by gummy
Thu Nov 27, 2008 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 18529

Verde wrote:The really complicated issue is how to save 25 times terminal income in 40 years.
Amen!
To be amazed at how much you'd have to invest (from your current salary) to achieve some predetermined portfolio in umpteen years
try the funny/money/ballpark calculator #4: :?
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/retirement-calculators.htm
by gummy
Thu Nov 27, 2008 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 18529

Verde wrote:The really complicated issue is how to save 25 times terminal income in 40 years.
Having paid off our mortgage (and other misc. debts) and no longer having to raise four kids :lol:
we've found that we can live comfortably on (roughly) 50% of our pre-retirement income.
by gummy
Thu Nov 27, 2008 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 18529

Is there anybuddy here who is retired and actually withdraws 4% ... or another number generated by some magic formula based upon historical precedent? I've been retired for 15 years and adjust my withdrawals according to current (and expected) market conditions, our current (necessary) financial req...
by gummy
Wed Nov 26, 2008 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 18529

You are asked by your 30-year-old daughter: "How much money should I have in my portfolio when I retire in 35 years?" How do you answer? You are asked by your retired, 65-year-old neighbour: "How much money should I withdraw from my portfolio each year?" How do you answer? I susp...
by gummy
Wed Nov 26, 2008 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 18529

DRiP Guy wrote:
gummy wrote:Image

C'mon, gummy, you are smarter than that ...
Unlikely! :lol:
by gummy
Wed Nov 26, 2008 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 18529

Image
by gummy
Fri Nov 21, 2008 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: During financial stress ...
Replies: 11
Views: 2370

For the sake of comparison: Image

Image
by gummy
Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: During financial stress ...
Replies: 11
Views: 2370

When I posted that result (BUD at 52-week high), a friend noted the following: :lol:

Image
by gummy
Thu Nov 20, 2008 4:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: During financial stress ...
Replies: 11
Views: 2370

During financial stress ...

Something cheerful to think about : Somebody wrote and asked me about the new High/Low Oscillator . As usual, I ain't never heard of it ... so I checked it out. During the checking, I looked at about 300 stocks (mostly on the S&P500) to see who was at their 52-week low (about half of them). How...
by gummy
Sat Nov 15, 2008 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importing Data Into Excel
Replies: 7
Views: 2820

Gummy, Thanks for the reply. When I run the query, I get an error: "Run-time error '1004': Method 'DisplayAlerts' of object '_Application' failed I'm using Excel 2003 Hmmm ... that spreadsheet changes minute-by-minute. Could you try again, without typing in any of your own Yahoo symbols? The Y...
by gummy
Fri Nov 14, 2008 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importing Data Into Excel
Replies: 7
Views: 2820

This Excel 97 spreadsheet will download historical dividends:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/dividends.htm
by gummy
Wed Nov 12, 2008 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 200-day moving average market timing
Replies: 1194
Views: 407377

Gummy, Great spreadsheet. I think you show that this does not work well for stocks (and DJIA). Have you tried moving average crossovers against indices? I tried exponential moving averages from 1 to 200 vs. averages of 10 to 300 against a diversified portfolio: VTSMX, VGTSX, ^DJC, VGSIX, VISVX, VEI...
by gummy
Wed Nov 12, 2008 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 200-day moving average market timing
Replies: 1194
Views: 407377

TheEternalVortex wrote:Why are you using 200 days? Maybe 150 days is better? Or 225 days? Or 134 days?

Maybe you should choose the value that would have been optimal, given available data...
Did you take a peek at the link? You can stick in 150, 225, 134 ... or 2.
by gummy
Wed Nov 12, 2008 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 200-day moving average market timing
Replies: 1194
Views: 407377

Intrigued by the notion that a 200-day MA is better than Buy&Hold, I done did this: m I find that over the last 10 years, the MA portfolio done good (but "the market" didn't). Aaah, but over the previous 10 years, Buy&Hold portfolio done good (and so did the "the market")...
by gummy
Sat Oct 25, 2008 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 questions on bond fund duration
Replies: 18
Views: 3463

Blackwood wrote:Thanks for all the informed and helpful replies. I think I have a much better understanding of bond duration now
(I admit I haven't finished working through Gummy's equations ... )

Shucks ... no point in repeating that struggle.
I done did it meself and still have the scars to prove it:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/bonds.htm
by gummy
Thu Oct 23, 2008 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will market bottom be reached; Sustained recovery begn?
Replies: 15
Views: 2967

After an exhaustive search of historical DOW performance, I find this
(which illustrates the evolution of a $1K DOW portfolio over 25 weeks, then and now):
Image

Conclusion?
The DOW will bottom in 9 weeks.
Isn't that Dec 25? :lol:
by gummy
Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 questions on bond fund duration
Replies: 18
Views: 3463

V, the Current value of a Bond = (present value of all the coupons) + (the present value of the Maturity Value of the Bond) Then V = some hairy function involving (among other things) y, the yield per coupon period (measured in years). What's this hairy function? The Macauley Bond Duration : http://...
by gummy
Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle Predicts 10% avg. returns for stocks over 10 yrs
Replies: 69
Views: 13141

I (finally!) got me some inflation rates and have the "real" CAGR here, at the bottom: :lol:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/meltdown.htm#FUTURE
by gummy
Fri Oct 17, 2008 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle Predicts 10% avg. returns for stocks over 10 yrs
Replies: 69
Views: 13141

So how long would someone have had have held stocks in order to make sure they got the promised 7 percent real return? Has gummy calculated this time period? OOPS! I misread your post and thought you was talkin' about "future" gains. For historical stuff (ignoring inflation ... until I fi...
by gummy
Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle Predicts 10% avg. returns for stocks over 10 yrs
Replies: 69
Views: 13141

Here's an interesting exercise : [1] Consider the recent past , namely this century. (Maybe "this time it's different" , eh?) http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Ito-SP500-1.gif [2] Application of a sexy mathematical ritual ** gives us the probable distribution of S&P values, 10 years from now...
by gummy
Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says Dow may go down to 4000
Replies: 67
Views: 15150

What happens when you reinvest dividends? You do know that there are TWO Dow indices: one for price only (the one you're using) and one for total return (reinvests dividends). Actually, the DOW values I used, from djindexes (also available at Yahoo ) are adjusted for reinvested dividends. See, for ...
by gummy
Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says Dow may go down to 4000
Replies: 67
Views: 15150

daryll40 wrote:Sorry that I can be somewhat of a moron, but I cannot figure out what the above chart is saying. Yeah, I get it that Gummy is saying that a "blind trust" mentality is the way to go. But the chart itself is not speaking to me.
Maybe the explanation here is a mite clearer:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/sleep-strategy.htm
by gummy
Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says Dow may go down to 4000
Replies: 67
Views: 15150

Were we talkin' about sleeping through a DOWnturn?
Here's a neato chart:
Image
Y'all want 95%?
Sleep fer 52*20 weeks = 20 years.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
by gummy
Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says Dow may go down to 4000
Replies: 67
Views: 15150

I just wanted to point out that after suffering a 50% decline, you need a 100% increase just to get back to where you were. After a 53.5% decline, you'd need 115.1% increase to get back to even -- and the 53.5% decline was surrounded by other significant years of loss. In the end, even in the early...
by gummy
Mon Oct 13, 2008 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says Dow may go down to 4000
Replies: 67
Views: 15150

Gummy, can you do that with the best years or years after the biggest declines? One of the things we always hear about risks of market timing is missing the rebounds and I'd really like to see what the years after the "worstest" look like and how quickly the market has recovered. Nonnie I...
by gummy
Sun Oct 12, 2008 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says Dow may go down to 4000
Replies: 67
Views: 15150

btenny wrote:Gummy
Can you please add 1974 to your chart?
Thanks
Bill
Done:

http://www.gummy-stuff.org/DOW-weakly.gif

P.S. I got this stuff here:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/meltdown.htm
:lol:
by gummy
Sun Oct 12, 2008 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says Dow may go down to 4000
Replies: 67
Views: 15150

I reckon it's easy enough to say what's "possible" or "plausible". In Dec, 1996, Shiller said: "... it is entirely plausible that the [Dow Jones] could dive well below 7,000 in the next few years." In fact, the DOW went to 9,894 over the next five years ... to 12,316 ov...