Search found 340 matches

by gummy
Thu Aug 19, 2010 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gummy-stuff, eh?
Replies: 29
Views: 10692

Norbert Schlenker wrote:The gummy-stuff archive is now located here. The archive has been cleaned up and reorganized, with many duplicate (and some triplicate) spreadsheets removed. Gummy's retired (that's what he says, anyway; this would be the third or fourth time, I think ...
WHAT!
I've retired at least eight times!
Image

P.S.
Thanks, Norbert.
by gummy
Sat Jul 31, 2010 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gummy-stuff, eh?
Replies: 29
Views: 10692

Re: Reply to Praxis

Ever Ready wrote:...
A good place to start viewing is the "index.html" file.
Good Luck,
Ed
Image
The .rar file, when uncompressed, will have some 6000 files.
It's the same set of files that's been on the CD which I've been selling for some time -- and now I'm tired o' that.
Hence the name:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/CD-gummy.rar

The "main" file (from which y'all can access everything else) is called (would-you-believe?):
gummy_stuff.htm
It looks like this (in part):
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/gummy-CD-image.gif
Image
by gummy
Sat Jul 31, 2010 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gummy-stuff, eh?
Replies: 29
Views: 10692

Re: gummy-stuff, eh?

bob90245 wrote:
gummy wrote:Okay, so I've finally decided to leave my http://www.gummy-stuff.org sandbox (after all these years, eh?) Image
But all your other articles remain intact? Like this one?

http://www.gummy-stuff.org/sensible_withdrawals.htm
Yup! Everything is there:
972 web pages
4569 pretty pics
573 spreadsheets
------------------
Total = 6114
by gummy
Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gummy-stuff, eh?
Replies: 29
Views: 10692

gummy-stuff, eh?

Okay, so I've finally decided to leave my http://www.gummy-stuff.org sandbox (after all these years, eh?) Image

However, I've also decided to make all that "stuff" available here, in compressed format:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/CD-gummy.rar
It's (about) 145 MB and ya gotta un-compress it.

Ciao!
gummy

P.S.
I'll still be chatting it up on my blog:
http://ponzoblog.blogspot.com/

Image
by gummy
Mon Mar 16, 2009 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No more gummy stuff, eh?
Replies: 43
Views: 9613

Shakespeare wrote:http://financialwebring.org/gummystuff/

Please contact the_management@financialwebring.org if there are any problems.
My apologies to Shakespeare.
On the CD I sent him, there's some ... uh ... junk, including an old version of the "main page".

Alas, Shakes' link gets you to an old page.

For the latest, try this:
http://financialwebring.org/gummystuff/gummy_stuff.htm


See?
I told y'all I wuz gettin' old. :?
by gummy
Sun Mar 15, 2009 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No more gummy stuff, eh?
Replies: 43
Views: 9613

Thanks fellas, for all the kind words.

We recently returned from a cruise and I found dozens of e-mails requesting charts, spreadsheets, tutorials, formulas etc. etc..

I suddenly felt my age (74-going-on-90). :?

Anyway, feel free to download, move, modify, regurgitate ... whatever ... anything you find on gummy-stuff. :D

I have one banker, in Europe (somewhere), who said he'd like to stick it all on his website.
ergo: gummy-stuff will live on, eh?
by gummy
Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: invest in... whisky
Replies: 15
Views: 2896

I can recall setting up a spreadsheet and testing it with the DOW components.
They all seemed to be down ... so it weren't a good stock selection for testing. :?
While looking about for stocks that actually went UP, I found this guy:
Image

When I mentioned this on another forum, somebody noted the following:
Image
:lol: :lol:
by gummy
Sat Feb 14, 2009 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another Madoff post: what did he do with the $50 billion
Replies: 26
Views: 4331

Madoff says he lost some $50B. One has to ask: "What $50B?" http://www.gummy-stuff.org/madoff-bill.jpg ------------------------------------------------- Madoff Math #1 I invest $1000 with Madoff and leave it with him for 25 years. He promises me an annual return of 10%. After 25 years I figure it's worth 1000 (1.1)^25 or $10,835. Now I discover that Madoff is a crook and doesn't have any of my money. How much did I lose? $1000 or $10,835? Is Madoff referring to the supposed "current value of all portfolios" (corresponding to $10,835) ... or the sum of all initial investments (corresponding to $1000)? ------------------------------------------------- Madoff Math #2 Suppose $1 is invested each year with Madoff, each invest...
by gummy
Wed Feb 11, 2009 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I thought for every buyer there was a seller
Replies: 21
Views: 4591

Re: I thought for every buyer there was a seller

justaworker2 wrote:Would someone please tell me, where has all of the money gone to?
Funny!
My wife asked me that same question yesterday (in connection with the money lost in the Madoff scheme).
She was thinking or "real" money.
I whipped out some charts to illustrate the difference between "real" money that you keep in your wallet... and money associated with the value of assets:

Image

P.S.
I'm waiting for Bob_H's explanation, 'cause he may be the only one who knows. :lol: :lol:
by gummy
Wed Feb 04, 2009 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do you need an annuity?"
Replies: 37
Views: 6163

Re: Gummy

Taylor Larimore wrote:Now I realize you are like the rest of us
Hey Taylor ... that makes me feel warm all over. Image
by gummy
Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do you need an annuity?"
Replies: 37
Views: 6163

Okay, now it's time for me to brag ... jest a bit:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/FWF-2008-contest.htm

Alas, my personal portfolio dropped 50% in 2008. :oops:
by gummy
Wed Feb 04, 2009 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do you need an annuity?"
Replies: 37
Views: 6163

When I retired (in '93) my wife insisted I put half our pension monies into a life annuity.
I tried to argue that it was a bad move ... but she always wins these arguments.

So I got us a life annuity with a fixed income, guaranteed 15 years (jest in case we both drop dead early), with the Missus getting 100% of the income if I dropped dead.

The income was based upon long term bond rates and they were high in '93.
We got an annual income $9200 per $100K ... and that 9.2% was great!
Good luck in getting that now!

Now, the other half has dwindled to practically $0 (with my sophisticated investment rituals) :lol:
... and she reminds me of how clever she was. I don't argue with her any more.
by gummy
Sun Jan 25, 2009 6:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How can I check my internet connectivity speed?
Replies: 42
Views: 8564

http://www.speedtest.net/

Sure you don't mean
6 megabits per second?

6 MBytes = 48 Mbits.

I think the fastest U.S. speed available is 5.6 MBytes at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab.
by gummy
Sun Jan 25, 2009 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GOT ANY PEARLS OF WISDOM FOR BOGLEHEADS BOOK?
Replies: 210
Views: 38093

When possible, use ACTUAL data and not some mathematical proxy.

One should always change the meaning of a word when practising the art of obfuscation. (e.g. 'Risk')

http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Quotes/quoter.htm
by gummy
Thu Dec 25, 2008 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking a back-testing paper
Replies: 384
Views: 58477

For those who like Buy&Sell schemes and thorough backtesting, guaranteed to raise your pulse rate, whet your appetite and initiate coronary palpitations
... here's one suggested by a little-known financial guru:

You flip a coin.
Heads? You Buy.
Tails? You Sell.

http://www.gummy-stuff.org/coin-flip-portfolio.htm

:lol: :lol: :lol:
by gummy
Sun Dec 14, 2008 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Milevsky - The "buckets" myth of retirement invest
Replies: 88
Views: 17653

Re: Milevsky - The "buckets" myth of retirement in

bob90245 wrote:Here is my research:
Harvesting Withdrawals in Retirement
Mamma mia!
Fantastic web site!
I had to link to it from my website. :lol:
by gummy
Mon Dec 08, 2008 3:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Black Swans and Bogle
Replies: 21
Views: 4012

In fact, Monte Carlo supports the notion that the future cannot be inferred from historical data.
There's a fun spreadsheet described here:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/reincarnation.htm
You get a single "possible" future with each key press.
Image
To suggest that one can (somehow!) "average" the possibilities and generate an "expected" future is pretty wild, eh?
Indeed, a simple reordering of historical returns is an interesting ritual:
Image
by gummy
Sun Dec 07, 2008 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which study: missing a few rally days and long-term returns?
Replies: 24
Views: 4432

There's a fun spreadsheet described here:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Max-Min-deletions.htm
:lol:
by gummy
Thu Nov 27, 2008 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 20518

dbr wrote:If I understand correctly, Milevsky's formula at least computes the probability of being both out of money and still alive.
Yes.
That Milevsky paper is quite interesting. The authors assume a lognormal distribution of returns and a particular model for life expectancy.
Then they calculate the probability that your portfolio will die before you do. :lol:

For example (with certain assumptions), they conclude that there's a 17% probability that a 65-year-old male with a 60%+40% stock+bond portfolio will have his portfolio die before he does.

What intrigued me was the model of life expectancy and the fact that they consider portfolio withdrawals as providing oneself with an annuity:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/annuities-2.htm
by gummy
Thu Nov 27, 2008 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 20518

I jest love the direction this thread has taken.
Image
by gummy
Thu Nov 27, 2008 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 20518

Yes those instincts we have are really worth something! SWR calculations and simulations are nice tools and should not be ignored. But real retirement has all the complexities of life in it and modeling all this is not very practical. Roof leaks, car repairs, changes in relative's circumstances, births and deaths, natural disasters, etc. -- too much to tie up in a neat plan. Amen! Nevertheless, if'n my income depended upon writing about market machinations, I'd be writing about (and publishing) learned articles on "safe" withdrawals, efficient frontiers, Buy& Sell signals, return distributions, Monte Carlo, sexy formulas , etc. etc. . Fortunately, I can write about these guys with tongue firmly planted in my cheek. P.S. Once-...
by gummy
Thu Nov 27, 2008 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 20518

nisiprius wrote:When I consider what an utterly impulsive move our marriage was--and so far, so good--I have to think that you have to trust your instincts, whether your instincts are trustworthy or not.
A great line!!
by gummy
Thu Nov 27, 2008 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 20518

Verde wrote:The really complicated issue is how to save 25 times terminal income in 40 years.
Amen!
To be amazed at how much you'd have to invest (from your current salary) to achieve some predetermined portfolio in umpteen years
try the funny/money/ballpark calculator #4: :?
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/retirement-calculators.htm
by gummy
Thu Nov 27, 2008 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 20518

Verde wrote:The really complicated issue is how to save 25 times terminal income in 40 years.
Having paid off our mortgage (and other misc. debts) and no longer having to raise four kids :lol:
we've found that we can live comfortably on (roughly) 50% of our pre-retirement income.
by gummy
Thu Nov 27, 2008 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 20518

Is there anybuddy here who is retired and actually withdraws 4% ... or another number generated by some magic formula based upon historical precedent? I've been retired for 15 years and adjust my withdrawals according to current (and expected) market conditions, our current (necessary) financial requirements and our luxury item dreams. This year, for example, we didn't take any expensive vacations, but stayed home and played canasta. A few years ago we took an expensive, 3-week tour of China. We also ignore the results of Monte Carlo simulations, the extraction of Mean and Standard Deviation from historical data, "safe" withdrawal calculators ... and all the fine fellas at Trinity. :lol: In spite of that, I still advise my daughte...
by gummy
Wed Nov 26, 2008 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 20518

You are asked by your 30-year-old daughter:
"How much money should I have in my portfolio when I retire in 35 years?"
How do you answer?

You are asked by your retired, 65-year-old neighbour:
"How much money should I withdraw from my portfolio each year?"
How do you answer?

I suspect that the infamous 4% Rule would be relevant in connection to the first question
... but (hopefully) not the second. :lol: :lol:

P.S.
My answer to the 2nd question would be along the lines of:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/sensible_withdrawals.htm
by gummy
Wed Nov 26, 2008 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 20518

DRiP Guy wrote:
gummy wrote:Image
C'mon, gummy, you are smarter than that ...
Unlikely! :lol:
by gummy
Wed Nov 26, 2008 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insanity of the 4% safe withdrawal rule
Replies: 123
Views: 20518

Image
by gummy
Fri Nov 21, 2008 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: During financial stress ...
Replies: 11
Views: 2562

For the sake of comparison: Image

Image
by gummy
Fri Nov 21, 2008 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: During financial stress ...
Replies: 11
Views: 2562

When I posted that result (BUD at 52-week high), a friend noted the following: :lol:

Image
by gummy
Thu Nov 20, 2008 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: During financial stress ...
Replies: 11
Views: 2562

During financial stress ...

Something cheerful to think about:

Somebody wrote and asked me about the new High/Low Oscillator.
As usual, I ain't never heard of it ... so I checked it out.

During the checking, I looked at about 300 stocks (mostly on the S&P500)
to see who was at their 52-week low (about half of them).

However, I actually found one that was at its 52-week high !!!

I couldn't imagine who that'd be.
When I looked again, it made great sense:
Image
by gummy
Sat Nov 15, 2008 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importing Data Into Excel
Replies: 7
Views: 3135

LifeIsGood wrote:Gummy,
Thanks for the reply. When I run the query, I get an error:
"Run-time error '1004':
Method 'DisplayAlerts' of object '_Application' failed
I'm using Excel 2003
Hmmm ... that spreadsheet changes minute-by-minute.
Could you try again, without typing in any of your own Yahoo symbols?

The Yahoo data comes from here (asking for dividends):
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=GE
by gummy
Fri Nov 14, 2008 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importing Data Into Excel
Replies: 7
Views: 3135

This Excel 97 spreadsheet will download historical dividends:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/dividends.htm
by gummy
Wed Nov 12, 2008 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 200-day moving average market timing
Replies: 1201
Views: 443472

Gummy, Great spreadsheet. I think you show that this does not work well for stocks (and DJIA). Have you tried moving average crossovers against indices? I tried exponential moving averages from 1 to 200 vs. averages of 10 to 300 against a diversified portfolio: VTSMX, VGTSX, ^DJC, VGSIX, VISVX, VEIEX over the time frame from May 1998 to Nov 2008. In all cases I found moving averages to beat buy and hold. I'm surprised the results should be so different , but moving average crossovers trade less frequently and perhaps most indices tend to trend more than stocks, and the DJIA. Don The plot thickens! I done some Vanguard stuff and get this: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/200-day-MA.htm#DP For example: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/200-MA-5a.gif Mamm...
by gummy
Wed Nov 12, 2008 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 200-day moving average market timing
Replies: 1201
Views: 443472

TheEternalVortex wrote:Why are you using 200 days? Maybe 150 days is better? Or 225 days? Or 134 days?

Maybe you should choose the value that would have been optimal, given available data...
Did you take a peek at the link? You can stick in 150, 225, 134 ... or 2.
by gummy
Wed Nov 12, 2008 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 200-day moving average market timing
Replies: 1201
Views: 443472

Intrigued by the notion that a 200-day MA is better than Buy&Hold, I done did this:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/200-day-MA.htm

I find that over the last 10 years, the MA portfolio done good (but "the market" didn't).
Aaah, but over the previous 10 years, Buy&Hold portfolio done good (and so did the "the market").

Fascinating, eh?
by gummy
Sat Oct 25, 2008 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 questions on bond fund duration
Replies: 18
Views: 3791

Blackwood wrote:Thanks for all the informed and helpful replies. I think I have a much better understanding of bond duration now
(I admit I haven't finished working through Gummy's equations ... )
Shucks ... no point in repeating that struggle.
I done did it meself and still have the scars to prove it:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/bonds.htm
by gummy
Thu Oct 23, 2008 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will market bottom be reached; Sustained recovery begn?
Replies: 15
Views: 3245

After an exhaustive search of historical DOW performance, I find this
(which illustrates the evolution of a $1K DOW portfolio over 25 weeks, then and now):
Image

Conclusion?
The DOW will bottom in 9 weeks.
Isn't that Dec 25? :lol:
by gummy
Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 questions on bond fund duration
Replies: 18
Views: 3791

V, the Current value of a Bond = (present value of all the coupons) + (the present value of the Maturity Value of the Bond) Then V = some hairy function involving (among other things) y, the yield per coupon period (measured in years). What's this hairy function? The Macauley Bond Duration : http://www.gummy-stuff.org/smiley2.gif http://i34.tinypic.com/95xulj.gif where y = R/m is the yield per period. If there are m = 2 coupons per year, then y = R/2 . The interesting thing about this hairy function is the following ... using a wee bit o' calculus : http://i36.tinypic.com/2ymbs07.gif That is, if the (modified) Bond Duration is 5 (measured in years), then dV/V = - 5 dy The interpretation is that, if dy is small, then dV/V gives the fractiona...
by gummy
Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle Predicts 10% avg. returns for stocks over 10 yrs
Replies: 69
Views: 14251

I (finally!) got me some inflation rates and have the "real" CAGR here, at the bottom: :lol:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/meltdown.htm#FUTURE
by gummy
Fri Oct 17, 2008 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle Predicts 10% avg. returns for stocks over 10 yrs
Replies: 69
Views: 14251

grayfox wrote:So how long would someone have had have held stocks in order to make sure they got the promised 7 percent real return?
Has gummy calculated this time period?
OOPS!
I misread your post and thought you was talkin' about "future" gains. :oops:
For historical stuff (ignoring inflation ... until I find them numbers) I get this:
Image
So, every N = 25-year period had a minimum Compound Annual Growth Rate of 7.4%.
by gummy
Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle Predicts 10% avg. returns for stocks over 10 yrs
Replies: 69
Views: 14251

Here's an interesting exercise : [1] Consider the recent past , namely this century. (Maybe "this time it's different" , eh?) http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Ito-SP500-1.gif [2] Application of a sexy mathematical ritual ** gives us the probable distribution of S&P values, 10 years from now: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Ito-SP500-2.gif The red line is where we is now. [3] That'll give some classy probabilities concerning where the S&P may be in 10 years. http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Ito-SP500-3.gif In particular, "the Math" sez there's an 85% chance it'll be less than it is now. Repeat several times: "The future is a replica of the past." "The future is a replica of the past." :lol: :lol: :lol: ** Don'...
by gummy
Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says Dow may go down to 4000
Replies: 67
Views: 16180

bob90245 wrote:What happens when you reinvest dividends? You do know that there are TWO Dow indices: one for price only (the one you're using) and one for total return (reinvests dividends).
Actually, the DOW values I used, from djindexes (also available at Yahoo) are adjusted for reinvested dividends.
See, for example, this:
http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.c ... wAvgMethod
and elsewhere on the djindexes site:
Cash dividends are reinvested in all current index component stocks based on their weight in the index as of the ex-date of the dividend.
by gummy
Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says Dow may go down to 4000
Replies: 67
Views: 16180

daryll40 wrote:Sorry that I can be somewhat of a moron, but I cannot figure out what the above chart is saying. Yeah, I get it that Gummy is saying that a "blind trust" mentality is the way to go. But the chart itself is not speaking to me.
Maybe the explanation here is a mite clearer:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/sleep-strategy.htm
by gummy
Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says Dow may go down to 4000
Replies: 67
Views: 16180

Were we talkin' about sleeping through a DOWnturn?
Here's a neato chart:
Image
Y'all want 95%?
Sleep fer 52*20 weeks = 20 years.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
by gummy
Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says Dow may go down to 4000
Replies: 67
Views: 16180

I just wanted to point out that after suffering a 50% decline, you need a 100% increase just to get back to where you were. After a 53.5% decline, you'd need 115.1% increase to get back to even -- and the 53.5% decline was surrounded by other significant years of loss. In the end, even in the early 40s, you were still below '29 levels. Aah, too true! However, I reckon one should consider sleep a financial strategy: If you had bought the DOW five years before the '29 crash and fell asleep until five years after, you'd have made money. http://www.gummy-stuff.org/1929-crash.htm If you had bought the DOW in Jan, 1987 and fell asleep thru' the '87 crash, until Christmas, you'd have made money. Thank you very much. so-- who won the bet-- do you ...
by gummy
Mon Oct 13, 2008 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says Dow may go down to 4000
Replies: 67
Views: 16180

Gummy, can you do that with the best years or years after the biggest declines? One of the things we always hear about risks of market timing is missing the rebounds and I'd really like to see what the years after the "worstest" look like and how quickly the market has recovered. Nonnie I got a bunch of charts 'n stuff here: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/meltdown.htm Do I gotta do this full disclosure thing? I own DRYS and EXM. I like 1937-1938 , 1969-1970 , 1977-1978 , 2002-2003 and I especially like 1931 (down 53.5%) and 1933 (up 78.9%). :lol: :lol: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/meltdown-2.gif P.S. I have a bet (made yesterday over thanksgiving dinner) with my two brothers-in-law: #1 bets the DOW will be up 400 points on Monday (toda...
by gummy
Sun Oct 12, 2008 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says Dow may go down to 4000
Replies: 67
Views: 16180

btenny wrote:Gummy
Can you please add 1974 to your chart?
Thanks
Bill
Done:

http://www.gummy-stuff.org/DOW-weakly.gif

P.S. I got this stuff here:
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/meltdown.htm
:lol:
by gummy
Sun Oct 12, 2008 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says Dow may go down to 4000
Replies: 67
Views: 16180

I reckon it's easy enough to say what's "possible" or "plausible".
In Dec, 1996, Shiller said:
"... it is entirely plausible that the [Dow Jones] could dive well below 7,000 in the next few years."
In fact, the DOW went to 9,894 over the next five years ... to 12,316 over the next five years.

It was said about Shiller (in Fortune)
"... the smartest guy who'd been most wrong about the stock market."

Now, after extensive mathematical analysis I'd like to say that it is "possible" that the DOW will not go below 8,000 and will increase to 12,000 within a year. :lol: :lol: