Search found 76 matches

by aboose
Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card Fraud -- Got charged $1.2k and a call from Citibank
Replies: 8
Views: 1468

Credit Card Fraud -- Got charged $1.2k and a call from Citibank

Hi everyone, I am a young professional (22) and I've had a credit card for about 6 months. I have the Costco Citibank card since I am a member under my family. On Saturday morning I wake up to several calls and emails from citibank alerting me. Somehow someone got ahold of my credit card number deta...
by aboose
Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Okay, so you're not trying to show that scenario 2 is market timing. Glad we could clear that up. As for the claim that "scenario 2 somehow provides superior risk/return to scenario 1": we've discussed this. Whichever scenario exposes you to higher stock allocation more often will be higher reward ...
by aboose
Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Thanks, I appreciate all the input. :sharebeer

@boglephreak:

Precisely
by aboose
Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

What would you be able to prove by this? Would your calculations be able to prove that, in fact, Scenario 2 secretly *does* make updated predictions about future returns? No, you wouldn't. Which means you wouldn't be able to prove that it is market timing. Because that's what market timing is. We'v...
by aboose
Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Your 'market timing' here is a red herring - you present no evidence that scenario two potentially hurts returns in a way different from scenario one and that evidence is not going to be based on whatever you call it or imply based on presumed similarities to other strategies. It seems you just wan...
by aboose
Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Da5id wrote: I believe you are flat out wrong. But I don't believe I could possibly persuade you of that.
You could if there were empirical proof that scenario 2 doesn't damage returns while maintaining similar risk profiles.
by aboose
Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

I think the only way to illustrate my point will be to somehow do the math calculation to show what the result of scenario 1 vs 2 would be.

Thank you everyone for your input. I've learned a lot.
by aboose
Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

If being reactive to the market isn't market timing, then sure, I guess I agree with your incensed comments. Because the second one returns me to my desired risk profile right now. If I wait, the risk may appear. How is this hard to understand? I don't want more than 50% in stocks... If it drifts up...
by aboose
Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

So what, in practice, is the difference between scenario 1 and 2? It depends. If scenario 1 says "rebalance weekly", well then you are going to rebalance often - probably more often than scenario 2 with common bands. This means scenario 1 will more actively maintain your allocation at a risk-return...
by aboose
Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

If you were in a situation where your portfolio risk was higher than you prefer, and you were provided with two scenarios: Rebalance based on scenario 1, to return your risk profile to what you want based on a time-criteria so therefore not market timing and therefore not hurting your returns Rebala...
by aboose
Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

IMHO making the choice to not re-balance is by your logic likewise market timing. Perhaps eating lobster instead of a hamburger is market timing too, as is buying a car. By the argument here, you are engaging in market timing continuously by purchasing a Vanguard LifeStrategy fund and holding it fo...
by aboose
Thu Dec 08, 2016 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Re:

In both cases, when the market goes up you sell and when it goes down you buy. except thats not always the case for rebalancing. assume 100% stock, 75% TSM/25% SCV. the market crashes, and SCV gets hit significantly harder than TSM. because it went down more for SCV, I have to sell TSM in order to ...
by aboose
Thu Dec 08, 2016 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Re:

I'm saying by neither definition can rebalancing be considered market timing. That my bonds have dropped below their prior % is simply due to the fact that they returned less than stocks (as expected). This is, of course, *necessarily* due to recent market behavior, which I don't believe is a signa...
by aboose
Thu Dec 08, 2016 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Sounds like he too is thinking rebalancing is all about increasing returns. I don't rebalance to increase returns. I rebalance because I don't want 90% of my money in stocks. Which is what would happen if I never rebalanced. At first, I was going to refute you, but I think you might be somewhat rig...
by aboose
Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

It just doesn't make sense to me. How can you reduce your risk, while simultaneously increasing your returns / beating the market? There is no Free Lunch. I can accept that rebalancing helps us get back to our emotionally set asset allocations, if it also means we are reducing our returns. Because l...
by aboose
Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

aboose: Have you seen this thread? https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=182926 The study in question suggests the opposite of your assertion - higher returns by waiting to hit a band rather than rebalancing immediately. Very interesting, I haven't read it yet but interesting... Of cours...
by aboose
Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

But this implies we know what is "off center". To me that is the very definition of market timing. Quoting it in terms of risk profiles has never made sense to me. Your "risk" depending on definition of risk doesn't stay constant as you rebalance. People also confuse long term risks and inflation/c...
by aboose
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

So I would suggest you do your re-balancing at the times you choose, and don't worry about what others think. And don't worry about trying to convince everyone they are wrong because they have a different definition. You do need to be aware of the issue that as the market changes between those date...
by aboose
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Secondly, if I take your first approach in which you advocate re-balancing at a fixed time so as to be not market timing, let me ask you to consider the following scenario. Exactly like your first, I choose to re-balance at fixed time interval (hence I must not be market timing), but the interval I...
by aboose
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

What I was hoping for was a technical/backtested analysis of data that shows that rebalancing doesn't hurt returns. Hmm, well, that's completely different. It may indeed hurt returns, but many of us pick an AA for risk-management, not to maximize returns. So rebalancing if the markets get wildly sk...
by aboose
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

aboose, This is a semantics argument: we're talking about what to call something. Such arguments are bound to be a waste of time unless we can agree on definitions of terms. So, to make this concrete, how about you provide *your* definition of "market timing", and then we'll discuss whether we thin...
by aboose
Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

My point is that a lot of people do market timing based on the following assumptions: - Stocks are at all time highs - Stock returns are expected to be higher or lower over the next X years - Bonds are reacting to rate hikes - Etc etc etc. These markets are not purely technical, they price in market...
by aboose
Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

The definitions are simply different. 'Mechanically the same' - if by this you mean you sell and buy assets, sure. But, a market timer may buy more stocks because 'the time is right', the same day a rebalancer would sell stocks because his allocation is out of whack. His allocation is out of whack ...
by aboose
Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Re: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Midareff, thanks for your input. That said, my last paragraph covers that. Just because mentally you are doing it for different reasons doesn't mean that rebalancing per "balance bands" isn't mechanically the same as buying and selling in reaction to market movements.
by aboose
Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?
Replies: 241
Views: 12781

Explain why Rebalancing isn't Market Timing?

Hi everyone, I am an inexperienced investor who is struggling to deal with this logical dilemma. Can you please explain to me why rebalancing isn't market timing? I have been shamed and made fun of for having this hypothesis but I am not technically experienced or literate enough in order to prove m...
by aboose
Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just joining the party
Replies: 15
Views: 2253

Re: Just joining the party

When (not "if") equities takes a down significant turn, having 20% minimum in bonds will allow you to rebalance in a more significant way exactly when equities are cheap. This will improve your returns. This is a cornerstone of Modern Portfolio Theory. It should be covered in all the good books you...
by aboose
Mon Nov 21, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If I won the game, how to play the next phase?
Replies: 27
Views: 5426

Re: If I won the game, how to play the next phase?

Now this is a case where market timing might actually come into play. And by that, I don't mean your asset allocation. What I'm saying is that historically, the worst times to retire early are right before a large recession/bear market. The 5% failure of the Trinity study focuses on those events. As...
by aboose
Mon Nov 21, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?
Replies: 155
Views: 20661

Re: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?

Can't say I have. I've never looked to try to maximize calories per dollar spent, to me that's a survival mode thing and I'm not in survival mode. I'm more focused on maximizing overall nutrition (and enjoyment) per $1 not just calories alone. I don't know how else to think about food aside from ca...
by aboose
Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?
Replies: 155
Views: 20661

Re: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?

Has anyone tried the HUGE commendation chocolate bar at trader Joe's? Only 15 bucks for 32 pieces of chocolate. Each piece has 330 calories. That's 700 calories a dollar. Insane. Next best I can find is the dark chocolate lovers bar which are sold individually at 625 calories for 1.70 (~300cal/dolla...
by aboose
Thu Nov 17, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I market timed & learned. Any Advice?
Replies: 52
Views: 6909

Re: I market timed & learned. Any Advice?

Wow, I'm honestly surprised. Market timers almost NEVER publicly come out with their mistakes.
by aboose
Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?
Replies: 155
Views: 20661

Re: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?

I really don't follow your metaphor. I believe you called people that care about what they eat "food snobs". I would agree with you if it were me coming in here stomping around about people who prioritize eating nice food as a hobby. But you were the one who called my diet "similar to a child" init...
by aboose
Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?
Replies: 155
Views: 20661

Re: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?

Well, we do have taste buds. There is a difference between being a food snob and liking tasty food. Just like not wanting to have a box under a bridge as your shelter is not being a shelter snob and not wanting to walk around in a burlap sack doesn't make you a fashion snob. By that logic, we shoul...
by aboose
Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Experiences Buying Mattress Online
Replies: 47
Views: 15342

Re: Any Experiences Buying Mattress Online

I've heard great things about the "Purple Matress" ( https://onpurple.com/ )
by aboose
Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?
Replies: 155
Views: 20661

Re: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?

BW1985 wrote:There's more to food than calories though, there's macro and micro nutrients.

I agree with you! I mentioned that part after.
by aboose
Tue Nov 15, 2016 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?
Replies: 155
Views: 20661

Re: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?

No offense, but chicken nuggets, mac n cheese and no veggies sounds like what a lot of little kids in my family eat. Sure I guess. In the end, Calories In, Calories Out. I get most of the nutrients I need throught fruit and milk and I make sure to sneak some veggies in at lunch time at the work caf...
by aboose
Tue Nov 15, 2016 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?
Replies: 155
Views: 20661

Re: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?

It seems like a lot of strategies for saving money requires a lot of time investment, such as shopping at different grocery stores, etc. If I'm going to use that much time to save a trivial amount of money, I'd rather just work more... I hear that a lot, but how do you go to the grocery store once ...
by aboose
Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?
Replies: 155
Views: 20661

Re: Monthly grocery costs? How do you keep it low?

I spend $400 a month on groceries for just myself. I feel clueless as how to get it down as I'm no chef. I need to consume at least 2500 calories a day for my active lifestyle. The cheapest food I've found are macaroni and cheese (720 cal, $3) and Chicken Nuggets (950 cal, $3) from Trader Joe's. I a...
by aboose
Mon Oct 24, 2016 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I switch my t.IRA that I opened this year to Roth penalty free?
Replies: 4
Views: 430

Can I switch my t.IRA that I opened this year to Roth penalty free?

I'm considering doing this as my AGI is quite low (15% tax bracket AGI due to starting work half way through the year and 10K into 401k). I opened the IRA as a t.IRA originally and maxed it in June. It has been sitting in Vangaurd TSM. Can I convert this to Roth and will I face any penalties for thi...
by aboose
Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3346
Views: 1005286

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

"The Charisma Myth" by Olivia Fox Cabane I am listening to this as an audiobook on my way to work every day. It seems fairly interesting. I'm 25% in so I suppose there's a lot to go, but so far it is a lot of things I knew already and don't magically make one charismatic. Frankly I think the secret ...
by aboose
Tue Oct 18, 2016 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I stop watching my investments? Negative ROI feels bad.
Replies: 48
Views: 4548

Re: Should I stop watching my investments? Negative ROI feels bad.

Googling up these charts is now so easy to do it's hard to believe the OP hasn't already looked at plenty of them. He/she went to college, invests at a good rate, and tracks it in a spreadsheet. Per a previous post he/she works in corporate finance at a F500 company. Is there more to the story behi...
by aboose
Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I stop watching my investments? Negative ROI feels bad.
Replies: 48
Views: 4548

Re: Should I stop watching my investments? Negative ROI feels bad.

Hi everyone, Sorry, I was at work, so I wasn't able to reply. I didn't expect to see so many responses. I'm very thankful for all the wise advice Bogleheads forum has given me both from a technical standpoint and from an emotional standpoint right now. I think the toughest part for me was that I kne...
by aboose
Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I stop watching my investments? Negative ROI feels bad.
Replies: 48
Views: 4548

Should I stop watching my investments? Negative ROI feels bad.

Hi all, I only started investing 4 months ago as I am a recent graduate with my first job. Here is my cash flows. http://i.imgur.com/QVncqB4.png As you can see I have now officially reached negative ROI on my investment. It feels pretty bad. I knew that the market can fluctuate, but I feel really st...
by aboose
Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 283
Views: 243605

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

I find this interesting right now, as people seem to be panicking about the market being overvalued and/or stagnant. I won't touch my investments or shift my strategy. But I will be curious to see what will happen. A lot of people make it seem like a crash or downturn is inevitable in the near futur...
by aboose
Thu Oct 06, 2016 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you own Vanguard Total Stock Market, do you re-invest dividends?
Replies: 75
Views: 12252

Re: If you own Vanguard Total Stock Market, do you re-invest dividends?

I reinvest in my taxable. As I believe in time in the market and since I get paid weekly, I already have many weekly tax lots, so the impact of quarterly dividends is hardly anything (52 tax lots vs 56 tax lots per year). I am sure one day when TLH becomes relevant to me this will be a big headache,...
by aboose
Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Job Hopping as an income increasing strategy?
Replies: 13
Views: 1811

Thoughts on Job Hopping as an income increasing strategy?

Hi all I am 22 years old. I have been working only 4 months since I graudated from undergrad in may. I make in the 60-70k range in corporate finance at a F500 company. I've already started to see how companies cheap out on their own employees. I don't know that I believe in the fairy tale that hard ...
by aboose
Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Tax Loss Harvesting (Noob questions)
Replies: 3
Views: 525

Re: Help with Tax Loss Harvesting (Noob questions)

Wow. I have read your reply and am soaking it all in. I will read and re-read.

Really appreciate the well thought out and informative response. :sharebeer
by aboose
Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:05 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: How Did You Become A Boglehead? What Led You Here?
Replies: 168
Views: 21204

Re: How Did You Become A Boglehead? What Led You Here?

Last year, when I was in my Junior year college summer doing my first internship, I saw how much tax I was paying and realized I wasn't making nearly as much as I thought I was. Further, I couldn't believe how confusing and convoluted it was to figure out how much tax I actually owed was. That led m...
by aboose
Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Tax Loss Harvesting (Noob questions)
Replies: 3
Views: 525

Help with Tax Loss Harvesting (Noob questions)

Hi all, I am very new to everything and am trying to wrap my head around this rather than my old strategy -- put my head into the soil and ignore tax efficiency. I have only been investing for 4 months now. I have three accounts. Fidelity 401K from Employer -- 3K now, 10K by end of year. 100% VITSX ...