Search found 53 matches

by Counterpoint
Sun Dec 08, 2019 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does this HSA long term strategy make sense? (And relative unimportance of keeping receipts before age 65)
Replies: 6
Views: 942

Re: Does this HSA long term strategy make sense? (And relative unimportance of keeping receipts before age 65)

Bottom line, they should max it out and invest it for now. If at some point in the distant future they are worried that they will never spend it, they can reconsider. Between long term care insurance and Medicare premiums I doubt that will ever be the case. Even in that case, they can use it as add...
by Counterpoint
Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does this HSA long term strategy make sense? (And relative unimportance of keeping receipts before age 65)
Replies: 6
Views: 942

Re: Does this HSA long term strategy make sense? (And relative unimportance of keeping receipts before age 65)

Thanks for all the comments. If they are saving that well, I doubt they will work and stash in the HSA till 65. Good point. Their vague target is to try and retire at 60 - or at least go part time. But even if they stop contributing to their HSAs at 60, it does not affect the projected HSA balance m...
by Counterpoint
Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does this HSA long term strategy make sense? (And relative unimportance of keeping receipts before age 65)
Replies: 6
Views: 942

Does this HSA long term strategy make sense? (And relative unimportance of keeping receipts before age 65)

This post is to request inputs on whether the long-term HSA planning parameters outlined below make sense, and on what I may be missing. I’m helping some younger family members with their financial planning. In particular, there is a couple I’m helping who have little bandwidth for detailed financia...
by Counterpoint
Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current expected return of stocks
Replies: 71
Views: 5025

Re: Current expected return of stocks

One piece for the OP to check out: The Credit Suisse 2019 Global Investment Returns Yearbook, published annually together with Professors Dimson, Marsh and Staunton. It provides a good historical perspective on the equity premium in various countries/regions, including the US, over the 1900-2018 per...
by Counterpoint
Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 158
Views: 17905

Re: Tributes to Jack Bogle

Thank you, Jack. Having worked in institutional finance in my career, both on Wall Street and on the buy side, I know first hand that most large financial institutions have major conflicts of interest with their customers. Caveat emptor. Vanguard as a result of Jack's philosophy was a breath of fres...
by Counterpoint
Sun Dec 23, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: First-time TLH questions (+ interaction with Roth conversions)
Replies: 2
Views: 279

Re: First-time TLH questions (+ interaction with Roth conversions)

So what does it look like when you check? It should show shares purchased. Thanks, livesoft. I went back and looked more closely at my Vanguard account and you’re correct that the dividend reinvestment already happened on Dec 21. In the old mutual fund platform (for our IRAs), the dividend payment ...
by Counterpoint
Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: First-time TLH questions (+ interaction with Roth conversions)
Replies: 2
Views: 279

First-time TLH questions (+ interaction with Roth conversions)

I’m planning to do my first TLH and would like to check a few things. Background: This would be with VTSAX i.e. Vanguard Total Stock Market (TSM) in our taxable account: Current losses on the highest-cost lots are about $7K. Sadly given about $2K in TSM dividends received Dec 21 and I believe schedu...
by Counterpoint
Sat Dec 15, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What should a new investor being reading?
Replies: 30
Views: 2546

Re: What should a new investor being reading?

Oddly, I had just put together a list and detailed recommendations for a few people who had asked me the same question, and in fact read a whole bunch of them in the last month to help them out. If you have the time and interest, I’d highly suggest spending the money to buy a few books. Yes, you can...
by Counterpoint
Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors
Replies: 17
Views: 2314

Re: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors

Just out of curiosity, how much extra ER are you willing to pay for a hedged developed markets fund, and why that amount? Estimates of hedging cost due to bid-ask spreads are made in this Vanguard piece: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/icrifi.pdf See pages 16-17 and in particular Figure 11 and it...
by Counterpoint
Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors
Replies: 17
Views: 2314

Re: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors

In pushing the question to a logically possible (but not actually implemented) extreme, I see your point entirely - if Vanguard advised 100% FI portfolios, and they stuck to their 100% hedged position, then there would be currency concentration risk. I agree. But the first of those premises is fals...
by Counterpoint
Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors
Replies: 17
Views: 2314

Re: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors

Rationale for International Investing and Undesired Currency Overlay More broadly, part of the relative important of currency risk depends on an investor’s portfolio. My portfolio is a 100% allocation to equities since we are in a comfortable financial position and don't need to draw down the portf...
by Counterpoint
Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors
Replies: 17
Views: 2314

Re: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors

Concentration Risk: Vanguard’s FI hedging implies this risk is very small Thanks for your thoughtful response, Noobvestor. Even if you and I have different perspectives on the same information, it was instructive to see your reasoning. I’ll address a couple of specific issues in this post, and foll...
by Counterpoint
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors
Replies: 17
Views: 2314

Re: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors

Thanks for the response, noobvestor. First of all, I should have separated out the facts/analytical results (that the historical data shows that US investors would have reduced volatility by hedging) from my opinion (that currency diversification is not a good reason for engaging in international e...
by Counterpoint
Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors
Replies: 17
Views: 2314

Re: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors

Hedged EAFE ETF from iShares costs 0.35%. I feel certain that Vanguard could beat that price. Yup, this is the HEFA I was referring to. I mistakenly referred to it (and DBEF - Deutsche Bank's X-Trackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF) as index funds rather than the ETFs that they are. And I very much ...
by Counterpoint
Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors
Replies: 17
Views: 2314

Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors

This is one of the findings from an Aug 2018 research piece from Vanguard: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGPCH.pdf They break down their analysis by home currency of the investor, but for US investors the key is in Figure 7b. It shows that over the last few decades, a US investor would have red...
by Counterpoint
Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Mint: Am I correct in having my security concerns allayed?
Replies: 18
Views: 2277

Re: Using Mint: Am I correct in having my security concerns allayed?

I only use mint to track spending, but I think you have the gist of it right. The Treasury deptment issued a report in fintech and it has a section on data aggregators and risks. It goes straight to this issue. I will say I don’t use mint for my investing accounts, just checking and credit cards. T...
by Counterpoint
Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Mint: Am I correct in having my security concerns allayed?
Replies: 18
Views: 2277

Using Mint: Am I correct in having my security concerns allayed?

I was wary of using financial aggregators because of concerns of having my passwords stored with them, which could conceivably lead to unauthorized transactions executed if the aggregator was hacked into. There’s a tradeoff between the benefits of aggregators (which vary depending on individual need...
by Counterpoint
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"
Replies: 240
Views: 24028

Re: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"

I'm surprised that so many Bogleheads call either company for services. I'm a septugenarian and have not called either company more than I have described here in over 20 years. Of course, I don't have a smartphone. DMW My experience is that calling Vanguard has been helpful when it’s the first time...
by Counterpoint
Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"
Replies: 240
Views: 24028

Re: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"

So if you have your money in a taxable account at Vanguard that makes sense, but then again you're probably sitting on LTCG at this point, so you probably already wouldn't consider moving the funds for that reason. However, if one has an IRA or some other tax-deferred growth account at Vanguard and...
by Counterpoint
Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market Timing Bonds vs. Money Market with Rising Interest Rates
Replies: 27
Views: 3474

Re: Market Timing Bonds vs. Money Market with Rising Interest Rates

If you don't intend to spend any of that money in the next year or two, it shouldn't be in a money market fund. I don’t think I’d agree with such a blanket statement. In general, with other factors like credit and liquidity risk being equal, the advantage of investing in a bond fund compared to a M...
by Counterpoint
Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fee only advisor suggestion
Replies: 7
Views: 1233

Re: Fee only advisor suggestion

First of all, I want to clarify that I’m not suggesting getting an advice-only FA instead of getting answers on the BH forum. If the OP is only looking for a simple portfolio review, or even answers to specific financial questions, BH is terrific and probably sufficient. But I’ve provided below situ...
by Counterpoint
Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market Timing Bonds vs. Money Market with Rising Interest Rates
Replies: 27
Views: 3474

Re: Market Timing Bonds vs. Money Market with Rising Interest Rates

So I deposited $25K in Vanguard this week which would typically go to my Bond allocation. Are you saying it was a mistake to put it in VMMXX @ 2.06% vs. VBTLX? I would suggest looking at your bond allocation in a portfolio context. If it’s part of a standard stock/bond allocation, the bond portion ...
by Counterpoint
Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 51
Views: 6821

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Just saw this thread, and thought I'd post a couple of links to interesting articles I've read on the term premium (especially the current negative term premium according to the ACM model): Good overview by Ben Bernanke on what drives the term premium (a bit old, from 2015, but still useful as a pri...
by Counterpoint
Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fee only advisor suggestion
Replies: 7
Views: 1233

Re: Fee only advisor suggestion

I used this site to get 3 suggestions for advice-only financial advisors in my area (who charge by the hour, not based on AUM - Assets Under Management): https://adviceonlyfinancial.com The site is run by Harry Sit, the author of The Finance Buff, who is also a respected BH poster. I paid $200 for i...
by Counterpoint
Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market Timing Bonds vs. Money Market with Rising Interest Rates
Replies: 27
Views: 3474

Re: Market Timing Bonds vs. Money Market with Rising Interest Rates

Bond yields are determined by bond traders, based on their expectations of future economic conditions; they already know about the Fed policy, and trade at prices which reflect it. The yield of a five-year bond should be equal to bond traders' expectations of short-term rates over the next five yea...
by Counterpoint
Fri Jul 27, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will or Trust?
Replies: 53
Views: 5367

Re: Will or Trust?

... By far the more important issue is whether to provide for your children in trust rather than outright. I agree with FIREchief to provide for your children in trust rather than outright. If it's appropriate, you can give each child effective control over her trust at a specified age. I'm curious...
by Counterpoint
Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will or Trust?
Replies: 53
Views: 5367

Re: Will or Trust?

People are conflating two different issues: whether to create a revocable trust, and whether to provide for your children outright or in trust. You can put the same dispositive provisions (who gets what, and under what terms) either in a Will or in a revocable trust. Revocable trusts make sense in ...
by Counterpoint
Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: LTCi option - whole life w/ Continuation of benefits rider
Replies: 19
Views: 1854

Re: LTCi option - whole life w/ Continuation of benefits rider

I'm no expert on LTCI, but this sounds similar to a "hybrid" LTCI policy. Michael Kitces had an interesting post that points out how the benefit of the guaranteed premium on a hybrid policy can be offset by a below-market rate of return on the cash value: https://www.kitces.com/blog/is-the-ltc-cost-...
by Counterpoint
Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth multi-year conversion plan: inputs requested
Replies: 25
Views: 3285

Re: Roth multi-year conversion plan: inputs requested

Interesting - thanks. But an off-topic issue that I probably shouldn't have brought up in this thread, given its complexity.
by Counterpoint
Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth multi-year conversion plan: inputs requested
Replies: 25
Views: 3285

Re: Roth multi-year conversion plan: inputs requested

Note that we rarely talk about "tax-advantaged" savings in this forum. We talk about "tax-deferred" and "tax-free"/post-tax accounts. We try to have a clear distinction between Tax-deferred and Roth since they are like opposites of each other. When we break down our portfolios for discussion, we se...
by Counterpoint
Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth multi-year conversion plan: inputs requested
Replies: 25
Views: 3285

Re: Roth multi-year conversion plan: inputs requested

@ Celia: I was hoping you'd weigh in - thank you "in person" for being a big part of my education on this topic! (2) In terms of implementation, I’m thinking of spreading out each 70K conversion over the year (to diversify the market price at which we’re making the conversion, same as dollar cost av...
by Counterpoint
Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth multi-year conversion plan: inputs requested
Replies: 25
Views: 3285

Re: Roth multi-year conversion plan: inputs requested

@Firechief: Thanks for your help, including the example which enabled me to work through my situation. As far as the "ease of use" of QCDs vs. DAF, I think it depends on your custodians. I find donations of appreciated securities in my Schwab taxable account to my Schwab DAF to be exceptionally easy...
by Counterpoint
Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth multi-year conversion plan: inputs requested
Replies: 25
Views: 3285

Re: Roth multi-year conversion plan: inputs requested

(6) Is there a good place to look for or post Q&A on the Retiree Portfolio Model? It was very useful, but there are some aspects that I don’t quite get, even after looking at the ReadMe section of the model. Sorry about that! If it's a general question that you think other users might benefit from ...
by Counterpoint
Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth multi-year conversion plan: inputs requested
Replies: 25
Views: 3285

Re: Roth multi-year conversion plan: inputs requested

Thanks very much for all the great advice! Some kind of conversion plan makes sense to me. Another factor in favor of conversion is that after one of you dies, the surviving spouse may face higher brackets due to single filing status. You are right to think about IRMAA considerations starting at age...
by Counterpoint
Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth multi-year conversion plan: inputs requested
Replies: 25
Views: 3285

Roth multi-year conversion plan: inputs requested

I’m looking at our first conversions from a TIRA to Roth IRA and have a few questions (first of all, my gratitude to the forum members for all that I’ve learnt here, and especially to Celia re: conversions and to BigFoot48 for the RPM). Our situation: - Spouse and I are early retirees in our late 50...
by Counterpoint
Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switching investments from joint to individual account - what to consider?
Replies: 4
Views: 501

Re: Switching investments from joint to individual account - what to consider?

aristotelian wrote:
Mon Feb 26, 2018 11:26 pm
The form that you would want is called "agent authorization" at Vanguard.
Thanks.
by Counterpoint
Mon Feb 26, 2018 11:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switching investments from joint to individual account - what to consider?
Replies: 4
Views: 501

Re: Switching investments from joint to individual account - what to consider?

I think your understanding is reasonable. It sounds as if you're going to keep the joint account but, going forward, you're going to have an individual account. This is easy and requires nothing more than the individual opening the account. The control is not difficult. When you're setting up the a...
by Counterpoint
Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switching investments from joint to individual account - what to consider?
Replies: 4
Views: 501

Switching investments from joint to individual account - what to consider?

My spouse and I are retirees who do automatic savings through a joint account into Vanguard index funds. For reasons that are too complicated to get into, we are now looking at continuing our future savings through an individual account in one of our names (instead of through the joint account). Bef...
by Counterpoint
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to decide whether to itemize (if you need to do the same in state tax return as federal)
Replies: 2
Views: 564

Re: How to decide whether to itemize (if you need to do the same in state tax return as federal)

Remember only to count deductions which are allowed on both returns. In most states, you cannot deduct state income tax. Thus, if you pay $3000 in property tax and at least $7000 in state income tax, your state itemized deductions will be $7000 less than your federal itemized deductions. Excellent ...
by Counterpoint
Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to decide whether to itemize (if you need to do the same in state tax return as federal)
Replies: 2
Views: 564

How to decide whether to itemize (if you need to do the same in state tax return as federal)

This applies to taxpayers living in states where you have to do the same thing on your state return (itemized vs standard deduction) as what you do on your federal return. This is true in our instance, plus our state’s standard deduction is much lower than the federal ($4000 for MFJ in our state). I...
by Counterpoint
Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Plans in case FIFO requirement is revived
Replies: 8
Views: 668

Re: Plans in case FIFO requirement is revived

Maybe convert the low cost basis shares to the ETF share class VTI. So you’d have low cost basis shares of VTI and higher cost basis shares of VTSAX. So we can convert just part of the VTSAX holding to VTI, and specify which lots? If yes, then that's brilliant and I think that should address it. An...
by Counterpoint
Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Plans in case FIFO requirement is revived
Replies: 8
Views: 668

Re: Plans in case FIFO requirement is revived

2. Invest in the ETF equivalent with Vanguard. But apparently we cannot do automatic investment. We travel a lot, so I’d very much prefer to have auto-investment. If the FIFO rule was put in for mutual funds then the Vanguard structure allowing you to convert to the equivalent ETF would give you an...
by Counterpoint
Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Plans in case FIFO requirement is revived
Replies: 8
Views: 668

Re: Plans in case FIFO requirement is revived

Methinks this a violation of forum rules. We're only allowed to discuss/advise on active, in-force legislation and regulations, not on speculated changes. Hmmm. That never occurred to me, since the substance of the post is not about speculating on legislative changes, but rather assessing alternate...
by Counterpoint
Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Plans in case FIFO requirement is revived
Replies: 8
Views: 668

Plans in case FIFO requirement is revived

I’m looking for some feedback on simple strategies I could adopt now in case there is a FIFO requirement in the future (as was discussed during the recent tax bill deliberations but fortunately shelved). Hopefully this is an unlikely event, so I'd undertake something different only if it's very simp...
by Counterpoint
Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to contribute to DAF this year: impact of future QCD
Replies: 12
Views: 1174

Re: How much to contribute to DAF this year: impact of future QCD

Very reasonable (I've mentioned sizing the 2017 DAF contibutions to reach QCD age in several other threads). Also, in my case I've donated appreciated TMI shares and reinvested them 100% in TMI shares withing the DAF, so it makes no difference if the market is up, down or sideways. In fact, if the ...
by Counterpoint
Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to contribute to DAF this year: impact of future QCD
Replies: 12
Views: 1174

Re: How much to contribute to DAF this year: impact of future QCD

In the comparison between QCDs and donating appreciated stock (for example in the Kitces article link above), I think the new tax situation starting 2018 would make a difference in the calculus for those who don’t itemize. Donating appreciated stock would become a little less attractive because of t...
by Counterpoint
Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to contribute to DAF this year: impact of future QCD
Replies: 12
Views: 1174

Re: How much to contribute to DAF this year: impact of future QCD

If you have even more highly appreciated securities, you have to consider the benefit of donating those and withdrawing your RMD instead of using QCDs as you're planning. It's not something I was familiar with, so I quickly looked it up and found these: https://www.kitces.com/blog/ira-qualified-cha...
by Counterpoint
Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to contribute to DAF this year: impact of future QCD
Replies: 12
Views: 1174

Re: How much to contribute to DAF this year: impact of future QCD

Agreed. I would not go further than 5-8 years out unless there were a huge tax arbitrage opportunity. The tax benefit to us from the DAF is over 50%, including federal and state tax benefits as well as the capital gains avoided. While making the donations is paramount, improving tax-efficiency woul...
by Counterpoint
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to contribute to DAF this year: impact of future QCD
Replies: 12
Views: 1174

Re: How much to contribute to DAF this year: impact of future QCD

@friar1610: Thanks for mentioning the Kitces article - I checked it out and it's useful to know for the future. I’ve only recently discovered the Kitces blogs and have been quite impressed.
@Chip: Good to hear your opinion, which is my gut feel as well.
by Counterpoint
Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to contribute to DAF this year: impact of future QCD
Replies: 12
Views: 1174

How much to contribute to DAF this year: impact of future QCD

I opened a new DAF with Vanguard yesterday using donated securities. We estimate that, together with prefunding next year’s major contributions, would fund our 501c3 contributions over the next 8 years or so (maybe somewhat longer if the DAF assets do well). The overall tax benefits according to our...