Search found 460 matches

by Johnnie
Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What seems to matter
Replies: 21
Views: 2714

Re: What seems to matter

Separating simple return from the compounding of those simple returns misses the point, imho, that starting early enormously decreases the heavy lifting (saving) required to build critical mass in your retirement account... "Start investing early. Decades of simple and compound returns can be an in...
by Johnnie
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should we care about inflation?
Replies: 58
Views: 5020

Re: Why should we care about inflation?

You also seem to completely discount the possibility of 1970s-style inflation but it could happen, or worse. Roger that. Too many here are looking at this in an "antiseptically" analytical manner and so not considering the psychological effects at all levels of society. Here's what I remember from ...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5599
Views: 1264571

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I was planning on not making our Roth IRA contributions this year because our accounts are all Small Cap Value and they were doing quite well without any contributions. Actually, SCV lagged last year so maybe this is exactly the time. OTOH, SCV lagged last year so maybe it's time to question your f...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5599
Views: 1264571

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I personally believe this selloff is the start of something big. Either that, or we are close to the end of this selloff. :P Or the end will be big. Victoria Or this is the end of the beginning. "In my beginning is my end. ... In my end is my beginning." Winnie, Nov. 10 1942: "This is not the end, ...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Anyone Know Anything?
Replies: 36
Views: 3392

Re: Does Anyone Knows Anything?

The title of Friedrich Hayek's 1974 Nobel speech is suggestive: The Pretence of Knowledge For my money it comes down to the seens vs. the unseens. You may know all about a lot of "seens," but a few big "unseens" can wipe you out. I also think about Taleb's line that humans are lousy at making predic...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5599
Views: 1264571

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm lucky but feel like a genius: My plan calls for annual rebalancing in February. But I decided that with a very high profile event happening in a very dicey corner of the world in February I would advance that to the last full week of January. Been feeling smug about it since the first big declin...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to take out the canes
Replies: 3
Views: 954

Re: Time to take out the canes

Or as J.P. Morgan supposedly said (and should have said if he didn't!), "Bear markets are when stocks return to their rightful owners.” :arrow:
by Johnnie
Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 86
Views: 10060

Re: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]

You guys make me nervous with all this cavalier talk. Even though I happen to agree that this is likely a blip, or just part of a garden-variety correction. But - cue my signature line. :|
by Johnnie
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5599
Views: 1264571

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I've had a funny reaction to this one. Three years out from retirement I've been feeling a sense of anxiety the past few months, especially in January. I thought it was just the general uncertainty of where I'm at, but when the market tumbled last week the anxiety lifted, and more so today. One clue...
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sense of security with ETF's?
Replies: 10
Views: 909

Re: Sense of security with ETF's?

I know this is not really correct - or may be technically correct but isn't meaningful - but I've always had the sense that with mutual funds I actually own the underlying stocks, while with ETFs I'm just holding a derivative. Which makes me more comfortable in mutual funds. When I try to get a bett...
by Johnnie
Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 237
Views: 20589

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

Maybe someone has already said this, but is it possible that the world has changed in ways that make us far too over-conservative about stocks? With all the buybacks and a dearth of new issues for many years, with big demographic changes and broad, worldwide macroeconomic changes (ie. globalization)...
by Johnnie
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diary of a Bear Market
Replies: 24
Views: 2885

Re: Diary of a Bear Market

Scariest line in the whole thing: "... is off 44% and won't regain the 1051 level set on January 11, 1973, for another eight years."
by Johnnie
Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 77
Views: 9101

Re: The Power of Working Longer

Compare and contrast this Marketwatch article from Merriman:

Double your retirement income (by working another) five years
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Crash of May 1940
Replies: 3
Views: 632

Re: The Crash of May 1940

"What General Weygand called the Battle of France is over. I expect that the Battle of Britain is about to begin. Upon this battle depends the survival of Christian civilization. Upon it depends our own British life, and the long continuity of our institutions and our Empire. The whole fury and migh...
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 94
Views: 6501

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

I lean positive, and am reinforced by Larry Swedroe's writing on this. My over-sized allocation to SCV goes back to reading Jeremy Seigel in the late 1990s. I got this large SCV portfolio the old fashioned way, buying-in and just sitting on it for years. But I'm dialing-back my tilt as I get closer ...
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kitces article: A cash bucket in retirement? Nope
Replies: 150
Views: 11885

Re: Kitces article: A cash bucket in retirement? Nope

I'm not a fan of buckets because it seems like playing a mental game, and just a roundabout way of saying "dial-back your A/A." However, I have found very helpful two alternative "lenses" to view this through. One is from Kitces himself, "Behavioral Biases And The Hierarchy Of Retirement Needs." Exc...
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Anybody Else Freaked Out By the Rapidly Escalating Stock Market?
Replies: 40
Views: 3654

Re: Is Anybody Else Freaked Out By the Rapidly Escalating Stock Market?

Cramer is a fraud in his investing advice but I usually watch his opening monologue to get a read on what the Wall Street big boys and insiders are thinking and doing. (For example, in November-December 2013, under-invested fund managers were talking-down the market hoping for a chance to get long i...
by Johnnie
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazing how much your IPS can de-stress your life
Replies: 29
Views: 4070

Re: Amazing how much your IPS can de-stress your life

I am amazed how much my life has changed and de-stressed since I have found my IPS and agreed to live by it. Amen, Brother! I was lost in the wilderness of timing and thinking I could "figure this thing out" until very late in the game, but Paul Merriman's Marketwatch articles caught my imagination...
by Johnnie
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Small-cap Value Funds ??
Replies: 55
Views: 5350

Re: International Small-cap Value Funds ??

Also a Merriman-head, and have had DLS in a Roth for a couple years, during which is has rock-and-rolled. Which is nice but I'm relieved to read here that its longer term performance has also been very good. I was a little bit uncomfortable because as has been noted it's not really a pure small cap ...
by Johnnie
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent market gains
Replies: 18
Views: 1627

Re: Recent market gains

From "Dow Closes Above 26000 for First Time as Investor Caution Turns to Greed," WSJ 1/17/18: ...The most recent gains have been powered in part by a sudden hunger for stocks among certain money managers and individual investors who have long been wary of the nearly nine-year bull market. Gotta love...
by Johnnie
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pre-buying food. Agricultural commodities
Replies: 5
Views: 569

Re: Pre-buying food. Agricultural commodities

Put 10 or 20 10-pound bags of white rice in some pickle buckets in the basement and call it good.

Or maybe just some cases of this other grain product: :beer
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone pondering moving to a cheaper place and downsizing?
Replies: 63
Views: 4624

Re: Anyone pondering moving to a cheaper place and downsizing?

I plan to move to a cheaper place, but I'm already in a pretty cheap place so it's more about getting a better quality of life than saving serious money. For example, I'll be in a semi-rural waterfront home in the same state that's worth exactly the same amount as my similar sized home in a medium-s...
by Johnnie
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal sequencing
Replies: 19
Views: 1900

Re: Withdrawal sequencing

With a lot of my investibles in tax-deferred the way seems obvious: When I stop working don't take rollover IRA distributions, and instead do spend-down after-tax dollars, to make room for Roth conversions up to the top of the new 12% tax rate (plus $12000/24000 exemption). Do that until claiming So...
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding “theory” question
Replies: 30
Views: 2907

Re: Compounding “theory” question

...And seemingly trivial monthly expenses, over time, impoverish--but we don't usually get to see the total. The cable company isn't going to give you a statement showing the number of dollars you've paid them, cumulatively, over the last twenty years! Recent articles suggesting that "Hey you've wo...
by Johnnie
Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Growing Peril of Index Funds: Too Much Tech
Replies: 67
Views: 5899

Re: The Growing Peril of Index Funds: Too Much Tech

After reading the explanations of why the article is misguided I'm still left feeling uncomfortable about directing my 401k contributions into TSM in 2018 for exactly the reason it states. Full disclosure, I'm a slice-'n-dicer with portions of domestic and international small and value funds, plus R...
by Johnnie
Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who missed out on maximizing 401k?
Replies: 62
Views: 5784

Re: Who missed out on maximizing 401k?

For a good long time now, once a year this is me to our person-in-charge-of-that: "Max me baby!" :D
by Johnnie
Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)
Replies: 201
Views: 17788

Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

This may be the most convincing explanation I've found for why stock index funds (and real estate) are for winners, and shiny rocks not so much:

How to invest like a rich guy


That said, I also like just a few shinies buried in the orchard as insurance.
by Johnnie
Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 114
Views: 10119

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

No one has mentioned the most obvious date: April 1. :twisted:
by Johnnie
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Financial Shock" wealth
Replies: 33
Views: 6348

Re: "Financial Shock" wealth

Thought this article was intriguing until it got political. Immediately lost all appetite for information. Except, it's not political. It says nothing about public policy. It describes a conceptual model of the differential impact of ordinary financial shocks on those above and below a point where ...
by Johnnie
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Financial Shock" wealth
Replies: 33
Views: 6348

Re: "Financial Shock" wealth

It's a disturbing article because the second half suggests "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer" may be endemic to the human condition - a "one-way ratchet." Overall it makes me feel hugely fortunate but totally unable to feel smug about it. Here are some relevant excerpts from the disturbin...
by Johnnie
Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?
Replies: 21
Views: 2164

Re: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?

Bill Gross is saying bond risk represented by a spike in rates is so great now that bonds may not protect portfolios in a big equity downdraft: “Risk assets, therefore, have a less ‘insurable’ left tail that should be priced into higher risk premiums. Should a crisis arise because of policy mistakes...
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Finding The Source Of Value
Replies: 19
Views: 2298

Re: Larry Swedroe: Finding The Source Of Value

From the article: ...Following is a summary of their findings: There’s a strong countercyclical variation in the value premium’s market beta. Macroeconomic variables are informative in estimating the conditional (that is, conditioned upon the state of the economy) capital asset pricing model. Consis...
by Johnnie
Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?
Replies: 136
Views: 20184

Re: What % of your income have you saved?

What a fascinating exercise! Much obliged to tfb for bumping this 2013 thread (which I see had another round that I missed last May). Using Social Security earnings as basis I have been blessed to be worth 120% of my life time earnings. With just savings figuring into the equation no real estate I a...
by Johnnie
Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you do right?
Replies: 96
Views: 10014

Re: What did you do right?

Right: Maxed-out tax-deferred savings opportunities pretty much since they were invented, starting with IRAs, then 401ks and Roths. Thankfully, I've always been a super-saver. Wrong: I never learned how to invest properly until I started reading Paul Merriman in Marketwatch a few years ago. Alas, I'...
by Johnnie
Sat Nov 25, 2017 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 195
Views: 16277

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

Many thanks to ArtsDoctor for this: In order to answer your own questions, you'll need to understand the 1994 study on which the 4% SWR was originally calculated. Once you've actually looked into that study and subsequent studies, you'll see that there are many caveats. You can start with a variety...
by Johnnie
Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding VTSAX only
Replies: 46
Views: 6009

Re: Holding VTSAX only

From Ben Carlson writing about an Evidence Based Investing Conference: 'Barry began his fireside chat with the new incoming CEO of Vanguard, Tim Buckley, by asking what his favorite stock is. Buckley didn’t skip a beat and joked, “All of them.”' http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/11/6-things-that-...
by Johnnie
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle, the world's richest man
Replies: 25
Views: 5339

Re: Jack Bogle, the word's richest man

Image



"A toast to my big brother, Jack: The richest man in town."





Ding-ding, ding-ding...



:sharebeer
by Johnnie
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 14062

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

"- Market valuation at the time of retirement can impact market returns over an extended period of time, which in turn impacts safe withdrawal rates. When market valuation is at average or favorable levels, increase the safe withdrawal rate by 0.5% to 1.0%; at unfavorable valuation, use the existing...
by Johnnie
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As we gear up for the predictions season, a look back on how they fared for 2017 so far
Replies: 19
Views: 2374

Re: As we gear up for the predictions season, a look back on how they fared for 2017 so far

technovelist wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:48 pm
It would be pretty hard to sell a newsletter that said "We don't know what is going to happen, so just buy the market and spend your time on other matters".
Right, you need a forum to do that. :wink:
by Johnnie
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 6215

Re: The Personal Black Swan

We really don't know whether the internet is robust or fragile, and my black swan nightmare is that something or someone takes it down for more than a couple of days. I don't think people realize just how huge a disruption that would be even if it only lasted a week, and if it were longer - Katie ba...
by Johnnie
Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Split the Equity allocation 50% US / 50% International
Replies: 40
Views: 5534

Re: Split the Equity allocation 50% US / 50% International

The issue is not intellectual (which would default to 45/55 US/Foreign) but psychological: tracking error tolerance. My clients read the Wall Street Journal. When International stocks outperform domestic, they say, "Great job, Phil, really love those international stocks." When international stocks...
by Johnnie
Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do people mean when they say their SWR is X% or they have X times expenses?
Replies: 27
Views: 2369

Re: What do people mean when they say their SWR is X% or they have X times expenses?

There are two resources that I have found useful for refining my own thinking on this and related issues: The first is "Cut-Throat's famous 'Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62'" post: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=102609 The other is a deep dive Michael Kit...
by Johnnie
Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 14062

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

I really do not see any likelihood of such grave events that trading in metals becomes a method of survival. I would suggest that if it ever did get to a point close to that your preferred metal would be lead as opposed to the shiny silver or gold. Seriously, while it can be fun to talk about prepp...
by Johnnie
Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 2659

Re: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?

There is another factor that we have not talked about there, how we rebalance and the type of market we are in. There are concave and convex rebalancing options out there. Each of these rebalances risk but in different ways. Concave, or having a fixed asset allocation, does best in a osculating mar...
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 14062

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

If any of those kind of black swan events happen and assets aren't completely worthless then those with assets will be in a better position than those without. If assets are worthless then it won't matter either way except for the regret those of us who saved will have over not buying a Ferrari and...
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 14062

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

dupe, sorry. that evil 'quote' link right next to 'edit.'
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 14062

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

...For example, since I retired 7 years ago, I have spent $13k to replace HVAC/ductwork, $10k tree work, $6k new french drain to re-mediate drainage/moisture issues, wood rot on foundation sill $3k and numerous other smaller repairs. My wife and I have incurred some significant dental expenses whic...
by Johnnie
Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is a good time to rebalance?
Replies: 30
Views: 2602

Re: When is a good time to rebalance?

I'm a Merriman-head. He does it annually at the same time of year, and suggests that more often is contra-indicated for momentum reasons. Here's what I like about that: It's a hard and fast rule, which takes away any hint of market-timing, and conforms with my signature line below. I know there are ...
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pre-Retirement “Reentry Blackout” Period
Replies: 4
Views: 667

Re: Pre-Retirement “Reentry Blackout” Period

PFInterest wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:40 pm
Isn't the (sorta) worst thing you'll die before the 3 yrs....
Not really, because that will resolve all the uncertainty and every other worry in single stroke! (Maybe literally.)
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 43
Views: 3836

Re: 1-yr, 3-yrs 5-yrs and 10-year results for 10 Professionally Designed Portfolios

Johnnie: You can also compare 10 professionally designed portfolios on MarketWatch. Mr. Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio is last for 1-yr, 3-yrs, 5-yrs and 10-yr returns. The Second Graders Three-Fund Portfolio is tied for first place: Past performance does not forecast future performance...