Search found 480 matches

by Johnnie
Sat May 12, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation in Roth vs pre-tax
Replies: 19
Views: 1514

Re: Asset allocation in Roth vs pre-tax

Allocate the assets with most retrun (REITs, SCV, ..) in Roth If you believe that they have the most return, why are you holding other assets? This always makes little sense to me. And if it's for diversification and a better risk-adjusted return, why wouldn't you have that mix in your Roth to maxi...
by Johnnie
Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicare Advantage vs. Supplemental
Replies: 77
Views: 7121

Re: Medicare Advantage vs. Supplemental

“So I'm at the age where I have to make these decisions. Lord, it's complicated.” Me too and roger-that. These are my goals and concerns (borrowing from previous posts): - “I am more concerned with getting the best coverage possible, and less concerned with cost. My secondary concern is probably si...
by Johnnie
Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KF's simple rules to achieve FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 451
Views: 30363

Re: KF's simple rules to achieve FI [Financial Independence]

Good thread, KF. The rules seem true because at root they are simple arithmetic. IOW, this may not be the only plan that might work for a person, but it's the only plan that's guaranteed to work - asteroid-level collapses of the financial system (or your own human capital) excepted. The rules are al...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Working till retirement is not a great plan
Replies: 175
Views: 13825

Re: Working till retirement is not a great plan

We don’t like to talk about it, but a lot of older workers lose their job because they’re just not that good relative to their pay. I’m a well paid SW engineer at 50+. I know I’m not as good as I used to be. I’ve got a lot of great experience, which counts for something, but there are limits. These...
by Johnnie
Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building a bridge to Social Security: When to start?
Replies: 34
Views: 4042

Building a bridge to Social Security: When to start?

When I retire in the next 3-5 years I plan to use "Cut-Throat's famous 'Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money earlier'" method: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=102609 On retirement, withdraw from your portfolio an amount equivalent to annual Social Security at 70 x th...
by Johnnie
Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?
Replies: 21
Views: 1172

Re: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?

From Larry Swedroe, World Isn’t Flat—Invest Accordingly : "...As you can see, the benefits of international diversification are greater when investing in international small and small value stocks and in emerging markets than when investing in the international large stocks in the EAFE Index. "Becau...
by Johnnie
Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets: Yes or No?
Replies: 78
Views: 17729

Re: Emerging Markets: Yes or No?

40% of my equities are international. 8 percent of my equities are EM, plus the EM that is in All-World ex-US Index (VFWAX), which is 16 percent of my equities. (I didn't realize VFWAX was 20% EM, but I'm good.) It's a significant but still modest holding because so much can go wrong there. But catc...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 17, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many people small value-tilt international?
Replies: 13
Views: 1497

Re: How many people small value-tilt international?

8% of stocks in ISCV (DLS); overall 40% international.
I've only had it for a couple years, and no surprise have been a happy camper during that time.


♫ ♪ Ridin' high in April,
Shot down in May...
♪ ♫
by Johnnie
Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could all of these "low expected returns over next 10 years" predictions be wrong?
Replies: 120
Views: 11063

Re: Could all of these "low expected returns over next 10 years" predictions be wrong?

Me on an earlier thread about the same subject: Re: Return expectations for the next 10 years Post by Johnnie » Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:40 am The explanations of why returns will remain sucky for years and years make ever so much sense - and yet the record of such long term predictions in the past is lau...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?
Replies: 13
Views: 1210

Re: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?

Nisi, I had a little trouble reconciling your numbers with the graph at first. Correct me if I'm wrong, but just looking at the graph, it appears to me that these numbers above must be for the period Dec 31, 2007 to Dec 31, 2008, or simply 2008. Including the next year as well, what I'd call "2008-...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401(k)/403(b) Conversion to Roth IRA
Replies: 28
Views: 3253

Re: 401(k)/403(b) Conversion to Roth IRA

Just to be certain I understand you, what you are saying is : since 60 you've been able to move your 403(b) $, annually, into a tIRA. (My 403 (b) plan allows for this beginning at 59 1/2 - known as an in service withdrawal.) After stopping work, the plan is to then convert the tIRA to a Roth in a l...
by Johnnie
Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no bonds in roth?
Replies: 34
Views: 4824

Re: no bonds in roth?

I agree with you on thing: I'm not 100 percent that what I am doing is the optimal thing. -- What I am doing: Roth IRA 100 percent invested in the higher-risk asset classes in a slice-and-dice portfolio. The Roth is considered just one component of (say) a 60/40 portfolio, and I have a way to includ...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no bonds in roth?
Replies: 34
Views: 4824

Re: no bonds in roth?

Again, what am I missing? (There must be something. :oops: ) You're trying to time the market by hoping it will someday be lower than it is today. There is no guarantee that will ever happen. Even if it does, you're also assuming that you can pick the bottom and make the switch at the right time. I...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no bonds in roth?
Replies: 34
Views: 4824

Re: no bonds in roth?

My Roth used to be 100% TSM (VTI), but as it grew I decided I wanted to have something in the Roth to re-balance with if necessary. Like on a RRBD (really, really BD) which is when I'd love to back up the truck. So it is now 90-10 TSM/TBM, even thought my overall AA is 65-35. It's just an extra row...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's that smell?
Replies: 41
Views: 6164

Re: What's that smell?

Actually, with a retirement window 5-7 years from now, I'm hoping for a recession sooner than later so we can get through it and I can retire on the way back up. My apologies to those who are closer to retirement. Three years out. I sympathize, but make it snappy, would ya? :? :wink: ~~~~~~~~~~~ To...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 301
Views: 29209

Re: A nice surprise

Sweet! Reminds me of a recent (and comforting) thread, "the second million is easier."

Image
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Accumulation-Dynamic Decumulation Strategy
Replies: 63
Views: 6215

Re: Accumulation-Dynamic Decumulation Strategy

This method seems to be aiming at developing a kind of personal pension fund paying a low-fluctuation pension. It differs from a traditional pension fund in that it won't benefit from continuous contributions of working members while paying pensions to retired members... Minor threadjack but I feel...
by Johnnie
Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regrets / Pearls
Replies: 27
Views: 4434

Re: Regrets / Pearls

I was a super-saver who only learned how to be a good investor in my late 50s. If my knowledge had measured up to my good habits I would be rich.
by Johnnie
Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no bonds in roth?
Replies: 34
Views: 4824

Re: no bonds in roth?

Roth dollars are worth more. You probably want 20% bonds to rebalance especially after this huge bull run we've had. I'm not so sure about that last. But I'm not so sure about what I have either. Three years from retirement, 55/45, and I've got my potential high-flyers in the Roth - emerging, intl ...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?
Replies: 111
Views: 8666

Re: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?

I just peek every day when it's going up - and run and hide when it's going down. I know what it's going to say so why look. Eventually when it looks safer I peek and usually think, "Oh, that isn't too bad." Many roads to staying the course. :D :beer
by Johnnie
Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What seems to matter
Replies: 25
Views: 3758

Re: What seems to matter

Separating simple return from the compounding of those simple returns misses the point, imho, that starting early enormously decreases the heavy lifting (saving) required to build critical mass in your retirement account... "Start investing early. Decades of simple and compound returns can be an in...
by Johnnie
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should we care about inflation?
Replies: 58
Views: 5322

Re: Why should we care about inflation?

You also seem to completely discount the possibility of 1970s-style inflation but it could happen, or worse. Roger that. Too many here are looking at this in an "antiseptically" analytical manner and so not considering the psychological effects at all levels of society. Here's what I remember from ...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6537
Views: 1400909

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I was planning on not making our Roth IRA contributions this year because our accounts are all Small Cap Value and they were doing quite well without any contributions. Actually, SCV lagged last year so maybe this is exactly the time. OTOH, SCV lagged last year so maybe it's time to question your f...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6537
Views: 1400909

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I personally believe this selloff is the start of something big. Either that, or we are close to the end of this selloff. :P Or the end will be big. Victoria Or this is the end of the beginning. "In my beginning is my end. ... In my end is my beginning." Winnie, Nov. 10 1942: "This is not the end, ...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Anyone Know Anything?
Replies: 36
Views: 3590

Re: Does Anyone Knows Anything?

The title of Friedrich Hayek's 1974 Nobel speech is suggestive: The Pretence of Knowledge For my money it comes down to the seens vs. the unseens. You may know all about a lot of "seens," but a few big "unseens" can wipe you out. I also think about Taleb's line that humans are lousy at making predic...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6537
Views: 1400909

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm lucky but feel like a genius: My plan calls for annual rebalancing in February. But I decided that with a very high profile event happening in a very dicey corner of the world in February I would advance that to the last full week of January. Been feeling smug about it since the first big declin...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to take out the canes
Replies: 3
Views: 969

Re: Time to take out the canes

Or as J.P. Morgan supposedly said (and should have said if he didn't!), "Bear markets are when stocks return to their rightful owners.” :arrow:
by Johnnie
Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 86
Views: 10484

Re: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]

You guys make me nervous with all this cavalier talk. Even though I happen to agree that this is likely a blip, or just part of a garden-variety correction. But - cue my signature line. :|
by Johnnie
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6537
Views: 1400909

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I've had a funny reaction to this one. Three years out from retirement I've been feeling a sense of anxiety the past few months, especially in January. I thought it was just the general uncertainty of where I'm at, but when the market tumbled last week the anxiety lifted, and more so today. One clue...
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sense of security with ETF's?
Replies: 10
Views: 990

Re: Sense of security with ETF's?

I know this is not really correct - or may be technically correct but isn't meaningful - but I've always had the sense that with mutual funds I actually own the underlying stocks, while with ETFs I'm just holding a derivative. Which makes me more comfortable in mutual funds. When I try to get a bett...
by Johnnie
Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 244
Views: 23019

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

Maybe someone has already said this, but is it possible that the world has changed in ways that make us far too over-conservative about stocks? With all the buybacks and a dearth of new issues for many years, with big demographic changes and broad, worldwide macroeconomic changes (ie. globalization)...
by Johnnie
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diary of a Bear Market
Replies: 24
Views: 3040

Re: Diary of a Bear Market

Scariest line in the whole thing: "... is off 44% and won't regain the 1051 level set on January 11, 1973, for another eight years."
by Johnnie
Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 77
Views: 9416

Re: The Power of Working Longer

Compare and contrast this Marketwatch article from Merriman:

Double your retirement income (by working another) five years
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Crash of May 1940
Replies: 3
Views: 674

Re: The Crash of May 1940

"What General Weygand called the Battle of France is over. I expect that the Battle of Britain is about to begin. Upon this battle depends the survival of Christian civilization. Upon it depends our own British life, and the long continuity of our institutions and our Empire. The whole fury and migh...
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 95
Views: 7366

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

I lean positive, and am reinforced by Larry Swedroe's writing on this. My over-sized allocation to SCV goes back to reading Jeremy Seigel in the late 1990s. I got this large SCV portfolio the old fashioned way, buying-in and just sitting on it for years. But I'm dialing-back my tilt as I get closer ...
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kitces article: A cash bucket in retirement? Nope
Replies: 150
Views: 12382

Re: Kitces article: A cash bucket in retirement? Nope

I'm not a fan of buckets because it seems like playing a mental game, and just a roundabout way of saying "dial-back your A/A." However, I have found very helpful two alternative "lenses" to view this through. One is from Kitces himself, "Behavioral Biases And The Hierarchy Of Retirement Needs." Exc...
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Anybody Else Freaked Out By the Rapidly Escalating Stock Market?
Replies: 40
Views: 3780

Re: Is Anybody Else Freaked Out By the Rapidly Escalating Stock Market?

Cramer is a fraud in his investing advice but I usually watch his opening monologue to get a read on what the Wall Street big boys and insiders are thinking and doing. (For example, in November-December 2013, under-invested fund managers were talking-down the market hoping for a chance to get long i...
by Johnnie
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazing how much your IPS can de-stress your life
Replies: 29
Views: 4280

Re: Amazing how much your IPS can de-stress your life

I am amazed how much my life has changed and de-stressed since I have found my IPS and agreed to live by it. Amen, Brother! I was lost in the wilderness of timing and thinking I could "figure this thing out" until very late in the game, but Paul Merriman's Marketwatch articles caught my imagination...
by Johnnie
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Small-cap Value Funds ??
Replies: 55
Views: 6160

Re: International Small-cap Value Funds ??

Also a Merriman-head, and have had DLS in a Roth for a couple years, during which is has rock-and-rolled. Which is nice but I'm relieved to read here that its longer term performance has also been very good. I was a little bit uncomfortable because as has been noted it's not really a pure small cap ...
by Johnnie
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent market gains
Replies: 18
Views: 1701

Re: Recent market gains

From "Dow Closes Above 26000 for First Time as Investor Caution Turns to Greed," WSJ 1/17/18: ...The most recent gains have been powered in part by a sudden hunger for stocks among certain money managers and individual investors who have long been wary of the nearly nine-year bull market. Gotta love...
by Johnnie
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pre-buying food. Agricultural commodities
Replies: 5
Views: 607

Re: Pre-buying food. Agricultural commodities

Put 10 or 20 10-pound bags of white rice in some pickle buckets in the basement and call it good.

Or maybe just some cases of this other grain product: :beer
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone pondering moving to a cheaper place and downsizing?
Replies: 63
Views: 4895

Re: Anyone pondering moving to a cheaper place and downsizing?

I plan to move to a cheaper place, but I'm already in a pretty cheap place so it's more about getting a better quality of life than saving serious money. For example, I'll be in a semi-rural waterfront home in the same state that's worth exactly the same amount as my similar sized home in a medium-s...
by Johnnie
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal sequencing
Replies: 19
Views: 2036

Re: Withdrawal sequencing

With a lot of my investibles in tax-deferred the way seems obvious: When I stop working don't take rollover IRA distributions, and instead do spend-down after-tax dollars, to make room for Roth conversions up to the top of the new 12% tax rate (plus $12000/24000 exemption). Do that until claiming So...
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding “theory” question
Replies: 30
Views: 3074

Re: Compounding “theory” question

...And seemingly trivial monthly expenses, over time, impoverish--but we don't usually get to see the total. The cable company isn't going to give you a statement showing the number of dollars you've paid them, cumulatively, over the last twenty years! Recent articles suggesting that "Hey you've wo...
by Johnnie
Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Growing Peril of Index Funds: Too Much Tech
Replies: 67
Views: 6273

Re: The Growing Peril of Index Funds: Too Much Tech

After reading the explanations of why the article is misguided I'm still left feeling uncomfortable about directing my 401k contributions into TSM in 2018 for exactly the reason it states. Full disclosure, I'm a slice-'n-dicer with portions of domestic and international small and value funds, plus R...
by Johnnie
Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who missed out on maximizing 401k?
Replies: 62
Views: 6124

Re: Who missed out on maximizing 401k?

For a good long time now, once a year this is me to our person-in-charge-of-that: "Max me baby!" :D
by Johnnie
Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)
Replies: 201
Views: 19224

Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

This may be the most convincing explanation I've found for why stock index funds (and real estate) are for winners, and shiny rocks not so much:

How to invest like a rich guy


That said, I also like just a few shinies buried in the orchard as insurance.
by Johnnie
Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 114
Views: 10608

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

No one has mentioned the most obvious date: April 1. :twisted:
by Johnnie
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Financial Shock" wealth
Replies: 33
Views: 6528

Re: "Financial Shock" wealth

Thought this article was intriguing until it got political. Immediately lost all appetite for information. Except, it's not political. It says nothing about public policy. It describes a conceptual model of the differential impact of ordinary financial shocks on those above and below a point where ...
by Johnnie
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Financial Shock" wealth
Replies: 33
Views: 6528

Re: "Financial Shock" wealth

It's a disturbing article because the second half suggests "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer" may be endemic to the human condition - a "one-way ratchet." Overall it makes me feel hugely fortunate but totally unable to feel smug about it. Here are some relevant excerpts from the disturbin...