Search found 498 matches

by Johnnie
Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 632
Views: 38191

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Past performance and history as a guide for the future received some attention in this (and other) threads, and I wanted to say something obvious and perhaps well known but still worth mentioning: History tells us that it's possible for a thing that has already happened to happen. Obviously that doe...
by Johnnie
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3778

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

I have read here something like this: Variable distribution rate plans guarantee you'll never run out of money - but you might end up taking 5 percent (or whatever) out of $100 bucks. It probably won't be that bad, but makes me wonder: What would a 5 percent variable distribution plan out of a $1 mi...
by Johnnie
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 61
Views: 3679

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

I've been looking into the Rising Equity Glide Path concept, and I'm intrigued... I'm doing a not-very-radical version of this, with an eye toward mitigating sequence of returns risk. With just a few years until retirement I'm gradually dialing down AA from 60/40 to 50/50. In the years between reti...
by Johnnie
Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11464

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I don't use CAPE to set or modify my AA. I'm also not willing to count on history to tell me what a "safe" withdrawal rate is -- especially a real rate when the USA has never experienced hyperinflation, or anything remotely like it. I do use CAPE10 to evaluate likely outcomes from decisions like Ro...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illiquidiity scenarios for Mutual Funds/ETFs
Replies: 21
Views: 1167

Re: Illiquidiity scenarios for Mutual Funds/ETFs

I asked the same question differently in a recent thread, "Are mutual funds safer than ETFs?" Lackey gave a pretty good answer (below) and also supplied the vocabulary I lacked when asking the question, "synthetic" funds vs. "physical." IOW, do ETFs really own the underlying shares? https://www.bogl...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11464

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I found this bit very interesting in Larry's article, and it seems to address some of the quibbles about the value of CAPE 10: However, as Graham and Dodd observed, there’s really nothing special about using the 10-year average. Other time horizons also provide information on future returns. With th...
by Johnnie
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Brokerage to use strictly for Brokered CDs
Replies: 18
Views: 1519

Re: Which Brokerage to use strictly for Brokered CDs

I just bought my first ever brokered CD from Schwab, in an IRA. They don't have that "rollover" feature - I asked. The guy I talked to sounded like he'd heard the question before and said something along the lines of, "Working on it."
by Johnnie
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6669

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

Bucket approaches make me uncomfortable because they feel like a way to play games and avoid hard thinking about asset allocation. That said, I'm planning to use one in the years between retirement and collecting SS at age 70. Specifically, "Cut-Throat's famous 'Delay Social Security to age 70 and S...
by Johnnie
Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies
Replies: 71
Views: 7476

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies

Paul Merriman has posted some new research on the frequency that different equity asset classes performed best in 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30 and 40 year periods. Table here: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Asset-Class-Comparisons.pdf Article here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-c...
by Johnnie
Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are mutual funds safer than ETFs?
Replies: 15
Views: 1806

Are mutual funds safer than ETFs?

With ever more exotic ETFs appearing almost weekly, and at least one serious liquidity incident this year and a growing number of dark-warning articles, I can't help feeling good about having most of my portfolio in stodgy old mutual funds. Are the concerns overwrought, and are mutual funds any safe...
by Johnnie
Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks in free fall
Replies: 151
Views: 19394

Re: International stocks in free fall

Been eyeing truck rental prices for a few weeks but - naah . :P I am however fondly recalling a decision the day Brexit broke a bit more than two years ago to accelerate the next tranche of a DCA into internationals. I calculated later that this one little market timing decision made me literally - ...
by Johnnie
Mon May 28, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread
Replies: 22
Views: 2927

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread

...My other good fortune was having a son that knew a lot more about building a professional organization than I did. What I was good at was getting to work early and working late. Also I loved teaching others how to invest on their own. Priceless! Thank you Paul for all you do. Including teaching ...
by Johnnie
Sun May 27, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 21171

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

I have an analogy for Paul's Ultimate vs. 3-Fund: It's the difference between a casino gambler at the craps table who has six or 10 different side bets going on every throw of the dice, the effect of which is to increase his odds just a smidge over the gambler who bets only on the main thing. ...And...
by Johnnie
Sat May 26, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Slice-'N-Dice Equities: Isn’t That Buying Low & Selling High?
Replies: 8
Views: 717

Rebalancing Slice-'N-Dice Equities: Isn’t That Buying Low & Selling High?

Nisiprius and others here have mostly* convinced me that rebalancing between stocks and bonds is a zero-sum exercise in the long term; it’s useful for maintaining a target asset allocation but will not generate gains from “buy-low, sell high.” OK, but what about rebalancing between equity asset clas...
by Johnnie
Fri May 25, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard opens special offices for $1 million clients
Replies: 115
Views: 28967

Re: Vanguard opens special offices for $1 million clients

Physical locations do nothing for me but for some minor telephone service conveniences I would probably bring my Schwab accounts into VG (or vice versa) to meet the threshold. I'm talking stuff the companies used to do automatically, like snail-mail IRA rollover or deposit forms rather than demandin...
by Johnnie
Fri May 25, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 21171

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

I discovered Merriman a few years ago and converted what had been a jumbled mess of a portfolio into a modified version of his Ultimate. I regard him as the sensei who (belatedly) taught me how to invest properly, meaning Boglehead-style stay-the-course, buy-and-hold investing - not necessarily just...
by Johnnie
Wed May 23, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread
Replies: 22
Views: 2927

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread

I have not listened yet, but elsewhere Merriman reports his old firm manages the mechanical timing system for him. He has said it's not a good choice for everyone because there are long periods when it has you out when the party is still going strong and everyone else is raking it in - lots of false...
by Johnnie
Sun May 20, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 150
Views: 23077

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

The possibility is scary that the glass has turned on 35 years of interest rate declines, which had been preceded by a similar length period of rising rates. How well do all the formulas and break-evens work when rates grind higher for decades, notwithstanding the usual perturbations along the way? ...
by Johnnie
Sat May 12, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation in Roth vs pre-tax
Replies: 19
Views: 1696

Re: Asset allocation in Roth vs pre-tax

Allocate the assets with most retrun (REITs, SCV, ..) in Roth If you believe that they have the most return, why are you holding other assets? This always makes little sense to me. And if it's for diversification and a better risk-adjusted return, why wouldn't you have that mix in your Roth to maxi...
by Johnnie
Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicare Advantage vs. Supplemental
Replies: 77
Views: 7908

Re: Medicare Advantage vs. Supplemental

“So I'm at the age where I have to make these decisions. Lord, it's complicated.” Me too and roger-that. These are my goals and concerns (borrowing from previous posts): - “I am more concerned with getting the best coverage possible, and less concerned with cost. My secondary concern is probably si...
by Johnnie
Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KF's simple rules to achieve FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 451
Views: 34197

Re: KF's simple rules to achieve FI [Financial Independence]

Good thread, KF. The rules seem true because at root they are simple arithmetic. IOW, this may not be the only plan that might work for a person, but it's the only plan that's guaranteed to work - asteroid-level collapses of the financial system (or your own human capital) excepted. The rules are al...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Working till retirement is not a great plan
Replies: 175
Views: 14886

Re: Working till retirement is not a great plan

We don’t like to talk about it, but a lot of older workers lose their job because they’re just not that good relative to their pay. I’m a well paid SW engineer at 50+. I know I’m not as good as I used to be. I’ve got a lot of great experience, which counts for something, but there are limits. These...
by Johnnie
Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building a bridge to Social Security: When to start?
Replies: 34
Views: 4352

Building a bridge to Social Security: When to start?

When I retire in the next 3-5 years I plan to use "Cut-Throat's famous 'Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money earlier'" method: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=102609 On retirement, withdraw from your portfolio an amount equivalent to annual Social Security at 70 x th...
by Johnnie
Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?
Replies: 21
Views: 1332

Re: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?

From Larry Swedroe, World Isn’t Flat—Invest Accordingly : "...As you can see, the benefits of international diversification are greater when investing in international small and small value stocks and in emerging markets than when investing in the international large stocks in the EAFE Index. "Becau...
by Johnnie
Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets: Yes or No?
Replies: 78
Views: 18125

Re: Emerging Markets: Yes or No?

40% of my equities are international. 8 percent of my equities are EM, plus the EM that is in All-World ex-US Index (VFWAX), which is 16 percent of my equities. (I didn't realize VFWAX was 20% EM, but I'm good.) It's a significant but still modest holding because so much can go wrong there. But catc...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 17, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many people small value-tilt international?
Replies: 13
Views: 1839

Re: How many people small value-tilt international?

8% of stocks in ISCV (DLS); overall 40% international.
I've only had it for a couple years, and no surprise have been a happy camper during that time.


♫ ♪ Ridin' high in April,
Shot down in May...
♪ ♫
by Johnnie
Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could all of these "low expected returns over next 10 years" predictions be wrong?
Replies: 120
Views: 11624

Re: Could all of these "low expected returns over next 10 years" predictions be wrong?

Me on an earlier thread about the same subject: Re: Return expectations for the next 10 years Post by Johnnie » Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:40 am The explanations of why returns will remain sucky for years and years make ever so much sense - and yet the record of such long term predictions in the past is lau...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?
Replies: 13
Views: 1310

Re: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?

Nisi, I had a little trouble reconciling your numbers with the graph at first. Correct me if I'm wrong, but just looking at the graph, it appears to me that these numbers above must be for the period Dec 31, 2007 to Dec 31, 2008, or simply 2008. Including the next year as well, what I'd call "2008-...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401(k)/403(b) Conversion to Roth IRA
Replies: 28
Views: 3453

Re: 401(k)/403(b) Conversion to Roth IRA

Just to be certain I understand you, what you are saying is : since 60 you've been able to move your 403(b) $, annually, into a tIRA. (My 403 (b) plan allows for this beginning at 59 1/2 - known as an in service withdrawal.) After stopping work, the plan is to then convert the tIRA to a Roth in a l...
by Johnnie
Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no bonds in roth?
Replies: 34
Views: 5160

Re: no bonds in roth?

I agree with you on thing: I'm not 100 percent that what I am doing is the optimal thing. -- What I am doing: Roth IRA 100 percent invested in the higher-risk asset classes in a slice-and-dice portfolio. The Roth is considered just one component of (say) a 60/40 portfolio, and I have a way to includ...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no bonds in roth?
Replies: 34
Views: 5160

Re: no bonds in roth?

Again, what am I missing? (There must be something. :oops: ) You're trying to time the market by hoping it will someday be lower than it is today. There is no guarantee that will ever happen. Even if it does, you're also assuming that you can pick the bottom and make the switch at the right time. I...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no bonds in roth?
Replies: 34
Views: 5160

Re: no bonds in roth?

My Roth used to be 100% TSM (VTI), but as it grew I decided I wanted to have something in the Roth to re-balance with if necessary. Like on a RRBD (really, really BD) which is when I'd love to back up the truck. So it is now 90-10 TSM/TBM, even thought my overall AA is 65-35. It's just an extra row...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's that smell?
Replies: 41
Views: 6431

Re: What's that smell?

Actually, with a retirement window 5-7 years from now, I'm hoping for a recession sooner than later so we can get through it and I can retire on the way back up. My apologies to those who are closer to retirement. Three years out. I sympathize, but make it snappy, would ya? :? :wink: ~~~~~~~~~~~ To...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 482
Views: 48332

Re: A nice surprise

Sweet! Reminds me of a recent (and comforting) thread, "the second million is easier."

Image
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Accumulation-Dynamic Decumulation Strategy
Replies: 63
Views: 6784

Re: Accumulation-Dynamic Decumulation Strategy

This method seems to be aiming at developing a kind of personal pension fund paying a low-fluctuation pension. It differs from a traditional pension fund in that it won't benefit from continuous contributions of working members while paying pensions to retired members... Minor threadjack but I feel...
by Johnnie
Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regrets / Pearls
Replies: 27
Views: 4674

Re: Regrets / Pearls

I was a super-saver who only learned how to be a good investor in my late 50s. If my knowledge had measured up to my good habits I would be rich.
by Johnnie
Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no bonds in roth?
Replies: 34
Views: 5160

Re: no bonds in roth?

Roth dollars are worth more. You probably want 20% bonds to rebalance especially after this huge bull run we've had. I'm not so sure about that last. But I'm not so sure about what I have either. Three years from retirement, 55/45, and I've got my potential high-flyers in the Roth - emerging, intl ...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?
Replies: 111
Views: 9324

Re: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?

I just peek every day when it's going up - and run and hide when it's going down. I know what it's going to say so why look. Eventually when it looks safer I peek and usually think, "Oh, that isn't too bad." Many roads to staying the course. :D :beer
by Johnnie
Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What seems to matter
Replies: 25
Views: 3986

Re: What seems to matter

Separating simple return from the compounding of those simple returns misses the point, imho, that starting early enormously decreases the heavy lifting (saving) required to build critical mass in your retirement account... "Start investing early. Decades of simple and compound returns can be an in...
by Johnnie
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should we care about inflation?
Replies: 58
Views: 5785

Re: Why should we care about inflation?

You also seem to completely discount the possibility of 1970s-style inflation but it could happen, or worse. Roger that. Too many here are looking at this in an "antiseptically" analytical manner and so not considering the psychological effects at all levels of society. Here's what I remember from ...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6759
Views: 1470512

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I was planning on not making our Roth IRA contributions this year because our accounts are all Small Cap Value and they were doing quite well without any contributions. Actually, SCV lagged last year so maybe this is exactly the time. OTOH, SCV lagged last year so maybe it's time to question your f...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6759
Views: 1470512

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I personally believe this selloff is the start of something big. Either that, or we are close to the end of this selloff. :P Or the end will be big. Victoria Or this is the end of the beginning. "In my beginning is my end. ... In my end is my beginning." Winnie, Nov. 10 1942: "This is not the end, ...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Anyone Know Anything?
Replies: 36
Views: 3903

Re: Does Anyone Knows Anything?

The title of Friedrich Hayek's 1974 Nobel speech is suggestive: The Pretence of Knowledge For my money it comes down to the seens vs. the unseens. You may know all about a lot of "seens," but a few big "unseens" can wipe you out. I also think about Taleb's line that humans are lousy at making predic...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6759
Views: 1470512

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm lucky but feel like a genius: My plan calls for annual rebalancing in February. But I decided that with a very high profile event happening in a very dicey corner of the world in February I would advance that to the last full week of January. Been feeling smug about it since the first big declin...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to take out the canes
Replies: 3
Views: 999

Re: Time to take out the canes

Or as J.P. Morgan supposedly said (and should have said if he didn't!), "Bear markets are when stocks return to their rightful owners.” :arrow:
by Johnnie
Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 86
Views: 11090

Re: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]

You guys make me nervous with all this cavalier talk. Even though I happen to agree that this is likely a blip, or just part of a garden-variety correction. But - cue my signature line. :|
by Johnnie
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6759
Views: 1470512

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I've had a funny reaction to this one. Three years out from retirement I've been feeling a sense of anxiety the past few months, especially in January. I thought it was just the general uncertainty of where I'm at, but when the market tumbled last week the anxiety lifted, and more so today. One clue...
by Johnnie
Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sense of security with ETF's?
Replies: 10
Views: 1141

Re: Sense of security with ETF's?

I know this is not really correct - or may be technically correct but isn't meaningful - but I've always had the sense that with mutual funds I actually own the underlying stocks, while with ETFs I'm just holding a derivative. Which makes me more comfortable in mutual funds. When I try to get a bett...
by Johnnie
Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 244
Views: 24816

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

Maybe someone has already said this, but is it possible that the world has changed in ways that make us far too over-conservative about stocks? With all the buybacks and a dearth of new issues for many years, with big demographic changes and broad, worldwide macroeconomic changes (ie. globalization)...
by Johnnie
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diary of a Bear Market
Replies: 24
Views: 3220

Re: Diary of a Bear Market

Scariest line in the whole thing: "... is off 44% and won't regain the 1051 level set on January 11, 1973, for another eight years."