Search found 507 matches

by Johnnie
Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 226
Views: 19671

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

You're making assumptions about what is going to happen. Maybe it will go the way you think, or maybe they will be inspired by the way things are done in some other countries and address the problem in a way that isn't good for you. "A bird in the hand" is a valid approach - you just take the money...
by Johnnie
Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 226
Views: 19671

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I regard it as axiomatic that you wait until age 70 to take SS if you can afford to, assuming you have no family history or specific health reason that suggests lower life expectancy. I don't think it's axiomatic. There's also the "take it while it's still there for you" school of thought... I don'...
by Johnnie
Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 226
Views: 19671

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I'm planning to take 4 percent of my portfolio balance annually between retirement and taking social security at age 70. At age 70 I'll kick this up to 5% percent of the balance. Upon retirement I am also planning to do the bucket thing - which can also be described as a programmed shift in AA - to ...
by Johnnie
Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 296
Views: 254757

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Time to evaluate my jitters about getting killed by value and international tilts in the midst of an "all time high" US growth-stock market. Will I be a genius laughing my way to the bank when the "crazytown" tech-and-growth domestic mega-caps plunge off of "CAPE Fear," while value and international...
by Johnnie
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on Vanguard web site: hide fund with 0 balance
Replies: 12
Views: 6221

Re: Question on Vanguard web site: hide fund with 0 balance

Bump to subscribe. I have the same problem, only when I click on "Customize this page" I don't even see an option to hide zero balances, only Display all accounts vs Display only the selected accounts. I am seeing the same thing. In the past I was able to fumble my way to "hide zero balance" but af...
by Johnnie
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs role in Fixed income part of portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 2902

Re: CDs role in Fixed income part of portfolio

I'm wondering what source could have concluded that and how it could be valid, especially on a forward looking basis, even if it did. As just mentioned, you can say 5yr CD's 'aren't necessarily lower yielding than the 5 yr note' if you take the *national average* of CD rates. If you take the best C...
by Johnnie
Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time to look at SS [When should I take Social Security?]
Replies: 55
Views: 5210

Re: Time to look at SS

Ironically enough, on the same day you post this another Hulbert (Hulbert 2?) has this article about a new study up on Marketwatch: Why people who claim Social Security early often live to regret it It's not directly on point for your your purposes but you'll probably want to take a peek anyway. (Li...
by Johnnie
Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 11839

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

Two often seen on the forum even though they are written up nicely in the wiki, BH books, and blogs: -Market timing: the predictive component is sometimes misunderstood. -Rebalancing: the purpose, which is to maintain a preset allocation, is sometimes misunderstood. And related, the notion of "dry ...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do at 62?
Replies: 62
Views: 8529

Re: What to do at 62?

I am very interested in the present-value analysis of paying more taxes now to avoid larger tax burdens in the future. The question becomes more salient given how close the the current 22% and 24% tax rates (single filer) are to each other. My own case illustrates: I'm planning on conversions within...
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 107052

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Past performance and history as a guide for the future received some attention in this (and other) threads, and I wanted to say something obvious and perhaps well known but still worth mentioning: History tells us that it's possible for a thing that has already happened to happen. Obviously that doe...
by Johnnie
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 4486

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

I have read here something like this: Variable distribution rate plans guarantee you'll never run out of money - but you might end up taking 5 percent (or whatever) out of $100 bucks. It probably won't be that bad, but makes me wonder: What would a 5 percent variable distribution plan out of a $1 mi...
by Johnnie
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 61
Views: 4220

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

I've been looking into the Rising Equity Glide Path concept, and I'm intrigued... I'm doing a not-very-radical version of this, with an eye toward mitigating sequence of returns risk. With just a few years until retirement I'm gradually dialing down AA from 60/40 to 50/50. In the years between reti...
by Johnnie
Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14793

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I don't use CAPE to set or modify my AA. I'm also not willing to count on history to tell me what a "safe" withdrawal rate is -- especially a real rate when the USA has never experienced hyperinflation, or anything remotely like it. I do use CAPE10 to evaluate likely outcomes from decisions like Ro...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illiquidiity scenarios for Mutual Funds/ETFs
Replies: 21
Views: 1271

Re: Illiquidiity scenarios for Mutual Funds/ETFs

I asked the same question differently in a recent thread, "Are mutual funds safer than ETFs?" Lackey gave a pretty good answer (below) and also supplied the vocabulary I lacked when asking the question, "synthetic" funds vs. "physical." IOW, do ETFs really own the underlying shares? https://www.bogl...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14793

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I found this bit very interesting in Larry's article, and it seems to address some of the quibbles about the value of CAPE 10: However, as Graham and Dodd observed, there’s really nothing special about using the 10-year average. Other time horizons also provide information on future returns. With th...
by Johnnie
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Brokerage to use strictly for Brokered CDs
Replies: 18
Views: 1785

Re: Which Brokerage to use strictly for Brokered CDs

I just bought my first ever brokered CD from Schwab, in an IRA. They don't have that "rollover" feature - I asked. The guy I talked to sounded like he'd heard the question before and said something along the lines of, "Working on it."
by Johnnie
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 7261

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

Bucket approaches make me uncomfortable because they feel like a way to play games and avoid hard thinking about asset allocation. That said, I'm planning to use one in the years between retirement and collecting SS at age 70. Specifically, "Cut-Throat's famous 'Delay Social Security to age 70 and S...
by Johnnie
Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies
Replies: 71
Views: 7911

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies

Paul Merriman has posted some new research on the frequency that different equity asset classes performed best in 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30 and 40 year periods. Table here: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Asset-Class-Comparisons.pdf Article here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-c...
by Johnnie
Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are mutual funds safer than ETFs?
Replies: 15
Views: 1897

Are mutual funds safer than ETFs?

With ever more exotic ETFs appearing almost weekly, and at least one serious liquidity incident this year and a growing number of dark-warning articles, I can't help feeling good about having most of my portfolio in stodgy old mutual funds. Are the concerns overwrought, and are mutual funds any safe...
by Johnnie
Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks in free fall
Replies: 151
Views: 20233

Re: International stocks in free fall

Been eyeing truck rental prices for a few weeks but - naah . :P I am however fondly recalling a decision the day Brexit broke a bit more than two years ago to accelerate the next tranche of a DCA into internationals. I calculated later that this one little market timing decision made me literally - ...
by Johnnie
Mon May 28, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread
Replies: 22
Views: 3107

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread

...My other good fortune was having a son that knew a lot more about building a professional organization than I did. What I was good at was getting to work early and working late. Also I loved teaching others how to invest on their own. Priceless! Thank you Paul for all you do. Including teaching ...
by Johnnie
Sun May 27, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 22938

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

I have an analogy for Paul's Ultimate vs. 3-Fund: It's the difference between a casino gambler at the craps table who has six or 10 different side bets going on every throw of the dice, the effect of which is to increase his odds just a smidge over the gambler who bets only on the main thing. ...And...
by Johnnie
Sat May 26, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Slice-'N-Dice Equities: Isn’t That Buying Low & Selling High?
Replies: 8
Views: 798

Rebalancing Slice-'N-Dice Equities: Isn’t That Buying Low & Selling High?

Nisiprius and others here have mostly* convinced me that rebalancing between stocks and bonds is a zero-sum exercise in the long term; it’s useful for maintaining a target asset allocation but will not generate gains from “buy-low, sell high.” OK, but what about rebalancing between equity asset clas...
by Johnnie
Fri May 25, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard opens special offices for $1 million clients
Replies: 131
Views: 34622

Re: Vanguard opens special offices for $1 million clients

Physical locations do nothing for me but for some minor telephone service conveniences I would probably bring my Schwab accounts into VG (or vice versa) to meet the threshold. I'm talking stuff the companies used to do automatically, like snail-mail IRA rollover or deposit forms rather than demandin...
by Johnnie
Fri May 25, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 22938

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

I discovered Merriman a few years ago and converted what had been a jumbled mess of a portfolio into a modified version of his Ultimate. I regard him as the sensei who (belatedly) taught me how to invest properly, meaning Boglehead-style stay-the-course, buy-and-hold investing - not necessarily just...
by Johnnie
Wed May 23, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread
Replies: 22
Views: 3107

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread

I have not listened yet, but elsewhere Merriman reports his old firm manages the mechanical timing system for him. He has said it's not a good choice for everyone because there are long periods when it has you out when the party is still going strong and everyone else is raking it in - lots of false...
by Johnnie
Sun May 20, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 150
Views: 24058

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

The possibility is scary that the glass has turned on 35 years of interest rate declines, which had been preceded by a similar length period of rising rates. How well do all the formulas and break-evens work when rates grind higher for decades, notwithstanding the usual perturbations along the way? ...
by Johnnie
Sat May 12, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation in Roth vs pre-tax
Replies: 22
Views: 2219

Re: Asset allocation in Roth vs pre-tax

Allocate the assets with most retrun (REITs, SCV, ..) in Roth If you believe that they have the most return, why are you holding other assets? This always makes little sense to me. And if it's for diversification and a better risk-adjusted return, why wouldn't you have that mix in your Roth to maxi...
by Johnnie
Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicare Advantage vs. Supplemental
Replies: 77
Views: 8640

Re: Medicare Advantage vs. Supplemental

“So I'm at the age where I have to make these decisions. Lord, it's complicated.” Me too and roger-that. These are my goals and concerns (borrowing from previous posts): - “I am more concerned with getting the best coverage possible, and less concerned with cost. My secondary concern is probably si...
by Johnnie
Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KF's simple rules to achieve FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 451
Views: 36809

Re: KF's simple rules to achieve FI [Financial Independence]

Good thread, KF. The rules seem true because at root they are simple arithmetic. IOW, this may not be the only plan that might work for a person, but it's the only plan that's guaranteed to work - asteroid-level collapses of the financial system (or your own human capital) excepted. The rules are al...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Working till retirement is not a great plan
Replies: 175
Views: 15788

Re: Working till retirement is not a great plan

We don’t like to talk about it, but a lot of older workers lose their job because they’re just not that good relative to their pay. I’m a well paid SW engineer at 50+. I know I’m not as good as I used to be. I’ve got a lot of great experience, which counts for something, but there are limits. These...
by Johnnie
Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building a bridge to Social Security: When to start?
Replies: 34
Views: 4669

Building a bridge to Social Security: When to start?

When I retire in the next 3-5 years I plan to use "Cut-Throat's famous 'Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money earlier'" method: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=102609 On retirement, withdraw from your portfolio an amount equivalent to annual Social Security at 70 x th...
by Johnnie
Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?
Replies: 21
Views: 1422

Re: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?

From Larry Swedroe, World Isn’t Flat—Invest Accordingly : "...As you can see, the benefits of international diversification are greater when investing in international small and small value stocks and in emerging markets than when investing in the international large stocks in the EAFE Index. "Becau...
by Johnnie
Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets: Yes or No?
Replies: 78
Views: 19831

Re: Emerging Markets: Yes or No?

40% of my equities are international. 8 percent of my equities are EM, plus the EM that is in All-World ex-US Index (VFWAX), which is 16 percent of my equities. (I didn't realize VFWAX was 20% EM, but I'm good.) It's a significant but still modest holding because so much can go wrong there. But catc...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 17, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many people small value-tilt international?
Replies: 13
Views: 2086

Re: How many people small value-tilt international?

8% of stocks in ISCV (DLS); overall 40% international.
I've only had it for a couple years, and no surprise have been a happy camper during that time.


♫ ♪ Ridin' high in April,
Shot down in May...
♪ ♫
by Johnnie
Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could all of these "low expected returns over next 10 years" predictions be wrong?
Replies: 120
Views: 12588

Re: Could all of these "low expected returns over next 10 years" predictions be wrong?

Me on an earlier thread about the same subject: Re: Return expectations for the next 10 years Post by Johnnie » Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:40 am The explanations of why returns will remain sucky for years and years make ever so much sense - and yet the record of such long term predictions in the past is lau...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?
Replies: 13
Views: 1390

Re: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?

Nisi, I had a little trouble reconciling your numbers with the graph at first. Correct me if I'm wrong, but just looking at the graph, it appears to me that these numbers above must be for the period Dec 31, 2007 to Dec 31, 2008, or simply 2008. Including the next year as well, what I'd call "2008-...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401(k)/403(b) Conversion to Roth IRA
Replies: 28
Views: 3671

Re: 401(k)/403(b) Conversion to Roth IRA

Just to be certain I understand you, what you are saying is : since 60 you've been able to move your 403(b) $, annually, into a tIRA. (My 403 (b) plan allows for this beginning at 59 1/2 - known as an in service withdrawal.) After stopping work, the plan is to then convert the tIRA to a Roth in a l...
by Johnnie
Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no bonds in roth?
Replies: 34
Views: 5617

Re: no bonds in roth?

I agree with you on thing: I'm not 100 percent that what I am doing is the optimal thing. -- What I am doing: Roth IRA 100 percent invested in the higher-risk asset classes in a slice-and-dice portfolio. The Roth is considered just one component of (say) a 60/40 portfolio, and I have a way to includ...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no bonds in roth?
Replies: 34
Views: 5617

Re: no bonds in roth?

Again, what am I missing? (There must be something. :oops: ) You're trying to time the market by hoping it will someday be lower than it is today. There is no guarantee that will ever happen. Even if it does, you're also assuming that you can pick the bottom and make the switch at the right time. I...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no bonds in roth?
Replies: 34
Views: 5617

Re: no bonds in roth?

My Roth used to be 100% TSM (VTI), but as it grew I decided I wanted to have something in the Roth to re-balance with if necessary. Like on a RRBD (really, really BD) which is when I'd love to back up the truck. So it is now 90-10 TSM/TBM, even thought my overall AA is 65-35. It's just an extra row...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's that smell?
Replies: 41
Views: 6851

Re: What's that smell?

Actually, with a retirement window 5-7 years from now, I'm hoping for a recession sooner than later so we can get through it and I can retire on the way back up. My apologies to those who are closer to retirement. Three years out. I sympathize, but make it snappy, would ya? :? :wink: ~~~~~~~~~~~ To...
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 551
Views: 64616

Re: A nice surprise

Sweet! Reminds me of a recent (and comforting) thread, "the second million is easier."

Image
by Johnnie
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Accumulation-Dynamic Decumulation Strategy
Replies: 64
Views: 7917

Re: Accumulation-Dynamic Decumulation Strategy

This method seems to be aiming at developing a kind of personal pension fund paying a low-fluctuation pension. It differs from a traditional pension fund in that it won't benefit from continuous contributions of working members while paying pensions to retired members... Minor threadjack but I feel...
by Johnnie
Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regrets / Pearls
Replies: 37
Views: 6961

Re: Regrets / Pearls

I was a super-saver who only learned how to be a good investor in my late 50s. If my knowledge had measured up to my good habits I would be rich.
by Johnnie
Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no bonds in roth?
Replies: 34
Views: 5617

Re: no bonds in roth?

Roth dollars are worth more. You probably want 20% bonds to rebalance especially after this huge bull run we've had. I'm not so sure about that last. But I'm not so sure about what I have either. Three years from retirement, 55/45, and I've got my potential high-flyers in the Roth - emerging, intl ...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?
Replies: 118
Views: 11326

Re: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?

I just peek every day when it's going up - and run and hide when it's going down. I know what it's going to say so why look. Eventually when it looks safer I peek and usually think, "Oh, that isn't too bad." Many roads to staying the course. :D :beer
by Johnnie
Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What seems to matter
Replies: 25
Views: 4161

Re: What seems to matter

Separating simple return from the compounding of those simple returns misses the point, imho, that starting early enormously decreases the heavy lifting (saving) required to build critical mass in your retirement account... "Start investing early. Decades of simple and compound returns can be an in...
by Johnnie
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should we care about inflation?
Replies: 58
Views: 6102

Re: Why should we care about inflation?

You also seem to completely discount the possibility of 1970s-style inflation but it could happen, or worse. Roger that. Too many here are looking at this in an "antiseptically" analytical manner and so not considering the psychological effects at all levels of society. Here's what I remember from ...
by Johnnie
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8608
Views: 1679151

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I was planning on not making our Roth IRA contributions this year because our accounts are all Small Cap Value and they were doing quite well without any contributions. Actually, SCV lagged last year so maybe this is exactly the time. OTOH, SCV lagged last year so maybe it's time to question your f...