Search found 524 matches

by Johnnie
Sat Oct 05, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over Confident in Old-age: Cognitive Decline and Financial Literacy
Replies: 83
Views: 7381

Re: Over Confident in Old-age: Cognitive Decline and Financial Literacy

Seems like one could set up a test for themselves that has randomized questions that they take at some regular interval. If/when they start failing the test repeatedly, they should have a clear action plan of what to do, determined in advance. I recommend and practice regular "Am I nuts?" checks at...
by Johnnie
Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plz share what you did to minimize retirement taxes
Replies: 32
Views: 3806

Re: Plz share what you did to minimize retirement taxes

I'll have four years between when I stop working and take SS at 70. During that time I plan to convert up to the next tax bracket. Probably about $40k/year. In these last few years at work I've started doing smaller conversions, "filling out" my current bracket. It struck me that paying those extra ...
by Johnnie
Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......
Replies: 148
Views: 13092

Re: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......

Here's the thing - I didn't invest in US and INTL because I thought they both were going to give me great returns, I did it because I figured ONE OF THEM would give good returns, and the other one would hopefully not do too badly. Unfortunately, I didn't know which one it would be... Hey that's pre...
by Johnnie
Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in
Replies: 92
Views: 13725

Re: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in

I've been in that late career "power-on" stage for going on 10 years (but not much longer). One change in the last couple years was to turn-down the "power setting" - new contributions now go into Treasuries as I strive to whittle down equities to a more conservative early-retirement A/A. I will not...
by Johnnie
Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:
Replies: 94
Views: 5565

Re: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:

"Sometimes the risk is realized" is a cute way of expressing it I saw recently, I think from Larry S. :-) Maybe "elegant" more than "cute."
by Johnnie
Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I skip scheduled car maintenance?
Replies: 26
Views: 1883

Re: Should I skip scheduled car maintenance?

I've got a 2013 Toyota that specifies synthetic oil. It also has an irritating light that goes on every 5,000 miles saying "service needed" or something like that, by which they mean "take it the dealer and get oil changed." Dudes, synthetic oil is designed to stay good for 50,000 miles , not 5,000!...
by Johnnie
Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you sacrifice to save?
Replies: 97
Views: 8626

Re: Do you sacrifice to save?

I don't sacrifice, but I hardly spend any more than base expenses. I just never got in the habit I guess, and no kids makes it possible. I like travel OK, but it's a big hassle, starting with getting through the airport, so don't do it much outside of work. I like cool cars, but mostly regard vehicl...
by Johnnie
Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you a "solo ager?"
Replies: 133
Views: 17903

Re: Are you a "solo ager?"

Op--Check out this recent NPR article on making new friends, I think this is relevant to this topic as well as in my case as single ager https://www.npr.org/751479810 While I agree that the above article is interesting & tangentially-related to this discussion, I hope it doesn't evolve into a derai...
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking a break in your 50s: Is it the kiss of death?
Replies: 86
Views: 8545

Re: Taking a break in your 50s: Is it the kiss of death?

But sometimes I think that getting fired could be a fun way to retire. And I wonder how long it would take if I ...merely dialed the effort meter back to a pleasant 3 or 4, occasionally leaving early to rest up. LOL, I have never thought or spoken about my own retirement date without adding the qua...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you a "solo ager?"
Replies: 133
Views: 17903

Re: Are you a "solo ager?"

I am likely in this boat and have been planning accordingly. Once the financial plan was in place and funded my thoughts turned increasingly to the social side. I have a small circle of cronies in the community where I plan to retire, but they are not getting any younger either. So the "build a comm...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense
Replies: 92
Views: 6737

Re: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense

My first thought is- the projection for increasing life expectancy may be already wrong right out-of-the-gate. Recent demographic trends (as posted in a recent BH post from someone else) show a decline in average lifespan for average US men and women. Doesn’t bode well for the credibility of the ar...
by Johnnie
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security -- Take it at 62, 67 or 70
Replies: 329
Views: 26968

Re: Social Security -- Take it at 62, 67 or 70

Here's how I handle anwering the longevity question: First, do you have a specific reason to believe you won't "beat" the break even average? Like, all four grandparents died young*, or other close relatives did so, or your own health is compromised for various reasons, or you've been on the beer-an...
by Johnnie
Thu Jul 25, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bucket Approach
Replies: 74
Views: 6122

Re: The Bucket Approach

I am not a fan, with the exception of having a separate bucket called the "social security bridge fund." See https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=102609 for discussion. The "bridge fund" method can also be stated in non-bucket, programmed-shift in asset allocation terms: Reduce your equi...
by Johnnie
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?
Replies: 62
Views: 5104

Re: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?

I wish I could remember which boglehead said this a couple years ago when the subject came up. He was referring to both individual companies and industry as a whole: "It's not a closed system; work is the input." I read "work" as meaning both the inspiration and the perspiration that goes into growi...
by Johnnie
Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR and Social Security
Replies: 36
Views: 3867

Re: SWR and Social Security

I think the "bridge" plan between retirement and SS at 70 is relevant to this, specifically it's use as a portfolio distribution "metering" device. It sounds like a bucket strategy but can also be expressed as a gradual, programmed asset allocation shift. It is used to equalize retirement income bef...
by Johnnie
Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matching Discretionary Income Streams to Tax Brackets
Replies: 23
Views: 1543

Re: Matching Discretionary Income Streams to Tax Brackets

I learned something interesting on this board recently about Roth conversions from a tIRA: Assuming the tax rate you're paying upon conversion is the same as the rate you'll be paying in the future for distributions from the tIRA, doing the conversion makes zero difference in tax liability. To illus...
by Johnnie
Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?
Replies: 57
Views: 5963

Re: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?

I am ever so happy right now in VFIRX, Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund, with a duration of about two years. I do worry a tiny, tiny bit about this seeming to be a "crowded trade" these days, suggesting that Mr. Market might have a rise in intermediate term rates in store for the near future. But t...
by Johnnie
Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 226
Views: 21092

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

You're making assumptions about what is going to happen. Maybe it will go the way you think, or maybe they will be inspired by the way things are done in some other countries and address the problem in a way that isn't good for you. "A bird in the hand" is a valid approach - you just take the money...
by Johnnie
Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 226
Views: 21092

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I regard it as axiomatic that you wait until age 70 to take SS if you can afford to, assuming you have no family history or specific health reason that suggests lower life expectancy. I don't think it's axiomatic. There's also the "take it while it's still there for you" school of thought... I don'...
by Johnnie
Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 226
Views: 21092

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I'm planning to take 4 percent of my portfolio balance annually between retirement and taking social security at age 70. At age 70 I'll kick this up to 5% percent of the balance. Upon retirement I am also planning to do the bucket thing - which can also be described as a programmed shift in AA - to ...
by Johnnie
Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 335
Views: 307241

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Time to evaluate my jitters about getting killed by value and international tilts in the midst of an "all time high" US growth-stock market. Will I be a genius laughing my way to the bank when the "crazytown" tech-and-growth domestic mega-caps plunge off of "CAPE Fear," while value and international...
by Johnnie
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question on Vanguard web site: hide fund with 0 balance
Replies: 12
Views: 6968

Re: Question on Vanguard web site: hide fund with 0 balance

Bump to subscribe. I have the same problem, only when I click on "Customize this page" I don't even see an option to hide zero balances, only Display all accounts vs Display only the selected accounts. I am seeing the same thing. In the past I was able to fumble my way to "hide zero balance" but af...
by Johnnie
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs role in Fixed income part of portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 3059

Re: CDs role in Fixed income part of portfolio

I'm wondering what source could have concluded that and how it could be valid, especially on a forward looking basis, even if it did. As just mentioned, you can say 5yr CD's 'aren't necessarily lower yielding than the 5 yr note' if you take the *national average* of CD rates. If you take the best C...
by Johnnie
Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time to look at SS [When should I take Social Security?]
Replies: 55
Views: 5502

Re: Time to look at SS

Ironically enough, on the same day you post this another Hulbert (Hulbert 2?) has this article about a new study up on Marketwatch: Why people who claim Social Security early often live to regret it It's not directly on point for your your purposes but you'll probably want to take a peek anyway. (Li...
by Johnnie
Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 12813

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

Two often seen on the forum even though they are written up nicely in the wiki, BH books, and blogs: -Market timing: the predictive component is sometimes misunderstood. -Rebalancing: the purpose, which is to maintain a preset allocation, is sometimes misunderstood. And related, the notion of "dry ...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do at 62?
Replies: 62
Views: 8741

Re: What to do at 62?

I am very interested in the present-value analysis of paying more taxes now to avoid larger tax burdens in the future. The question becomes more salient given how close the the current 22% and 24% tax rates (single filer) are to each other. My own case illustrates: I'm planning on conversions within...
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 115489

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Past performance and history as a guide for the future received some attention in this (and other) threads, and I wanted to say something obvious and perhaps well known but still worth mentioning: History tells us that it's possible for a thing that has already happened to happen. Obviously that doe...
by Johnnie
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 4719

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

I have read here something like this: Variable distribution rate plans guarantee you'll never run out of money - but you might end up taking 5 percent (or whatever) out of $100 bucks. It probably won't be that bad, but makes me wonder: What would a 5 percent variable distribution plan out of a $1 mi...
by Johnnie
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 61
Views: 4717

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

I've been looking into the Rising Equity Glide Path concept, and I'm intrigued... I'm doing a not-very-radical version of this, with an eye toward mitigating sequence of returns risk. With just a few years until retirement I'm gradually dialing down AA from 60/40 to 50/50. In the years between reti...
by Johnnie
Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 15326

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I don't use CAPE to set or modify my AA. I'm also not willing to count on history to tell me what a "safe" withdrawal rate is -- especially a real rate when the USA has never experienced hyperinflation, or anything remotely like it. I do use CAPE10 to evaluate likely outcomes from decisions like Ro...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illiquidiity scenarios for Mutual Funds/ETFs
Replies: 21
Views: 1349

Re: Illiquidiity scenarios for Mutual Funds/ETFs

I asked the same question differently in a recent thread, "Are mutual funds safer than ETFs?" Lackey gave a pretty good answer (below) and also supplied the vocabulary I lacked when asking the question, "synthetic" funds vs. "physical." IOW, do ETFs really own the underlying shares? https://www.bogl...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 15326

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I found this bit very interesting in Larry's article, and it seems to address some of the quibbles about the value of CAPE 10: However, as Graham and Dodd observed, there’s really nothing special about using the 10-year average. Other time horizons also provide information on future returns. With th...
by Johnnie
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Brokerage to use strictly for Brokered CDs
Replies: 18
Views: 2184

Re: Which Brokerage to use strictly for Brokered CDs

I just bought my first ever brokered CD from Schwab, in an IRA. They don't have that "rollover" feature - I asked. The guy I talked to sounded like he'd heard the question before and said something along the lines of, "Working on it."
by Johnnie
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 7999

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

Bucket approaches make me uncomfortable because they feel like a way to play games and avoid hard thinking about asset allocation. That said, I'm planning to use one in the years between retirement and collecting SS at age 70. Specifically, "Cut-Throat's famous 'Delay Social Security to age 70 and S...
by Johnnie
Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies
Replies: 71
Views: 8524

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies

Paul Merriman has posted some new research on the frequency that different equity asset classes performed best in 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30 and 40 year periods. Table here: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Asset-Class-Comparisons.pdf Article here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-c...
by Johnnie
Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are mutual funds safer than ETFs?
Replies: 15
Views: 2056

Are mutual funds safer than ETFs?

With ever more exotic ETFs appearing almost weekly, and at least one serious liquidity incident this year and a growing number of dark-warning articles, I can't help feeling good about having most of my portfolio in stodgy old mutual funds. Are the concerns overwrought, and are mutual funds any safe...
by Johnnie
Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks in free fall
Replies: 152
Views: 22156

Re: International stocks in free fall

Been eyeing truck rental prices for a few weeks but - naah . :P I am however fondly recalling a decision the day Brexit broke a bit more than two years ago to accelerate the next tranche of a DCA into internationals. I calculated later that this one little market timing decision made me literally - ...
by Johnnie
Mon May 28, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread
Replies: 22
Views: 3456

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread

...My other good fortune was having a son that knew a lot more about building a professional organization than I did. What I was good at was getting to work early and working late. Also I loved teaching others how to invest on their own. Priceless! Thank you Paul for all you do. Including teaching ...
by Johnnie
Sun May 27, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 29495

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

I have an analogy for Paul's Ultimate vs. 3-Fund: It's the difference between a casino gambler at the craps table who has six or 10 different side bets going on every throw of the dice, the effect of which is to increase his odds just a smidge over the gambler who bets only on the main thing. ...And...
by Johnnie
Sat May 26, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Slice-'N-Dice Equities: Isn’t That Buying Low & Selling High?
Replies: 8
Views: 932

Rebalancing Slice-'N-Dice Equities: Isn’t That Buying Low & Selling High?

Nisiprius and others here have mostly* convinced me that rebalancing between stocks and bonds is a zero-sum exercise in the long term; it’s useful for maintaining a target asset allocation but will not generate gains from “buy-low, sell high.” OK, but what about rebalancing between equity asset clas...
by Johnnie
Fri May 25, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard opens special offices for $1 million clients
Replies: 131
Views: 36674

Re: Vanguard opens special offices for $1 million clients

Physical locations do nothing for me but for some minor telephone service conveniences I would probably bring my Schwab accounts into VG (or vice versa) to meet the threshold. I'm talking stuff the companies used to do automatically, like snail-mail IRA rollover or deposit forms rather than demandin...
by Johnnie
Fri May 25, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 29495

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

I discovered Merriman a few years ago and converted what had been a jumbled mess of a portfolio into a modified version of his Ultimate. I regard him as the sensei who (belatedly) taught me how to invest properly, meaning Boglehead-style stay-the-course, buy-and-hold investing - not necessarily just...
by Johnnie
Wed May 23, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread
Replies: 22
Views: 3456

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread

I have not listened yet, but elsewhere Merriman reports his old firm manages the mechanical timing system for him. He has said it's not a good choice for everyone because there are long periods when it has you out when the party is still going strong and everyone else is raking it in - lots of false...
by Johnnie
Sun May 20, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 150
Views: 25524

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

The possibility is scary that the glass has turned on 35 years of interest rate declines, which had been preceded by a similar length period of rising rates. How well do all the formulas and break-evens work when rates grind higher for decades, notwithstanding the usual perturbations along the way? ...
by Johnnie
Sat May 12, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation in Roth vs pre-tax
Replies: 22
Views: 2522

Re: Asset allocation in Roth vs pre-tax

Allocate the assets with most retrun (REITs, SCV, ..) in Roth If you believe that they have the most return, why are you holding other assets? This always makes little sense to me. And if it's for diversification and a better risk-adjusted return, why wouldn't you have that mix in your Roth to maxi...
by Johnnie
Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicare Advantage vs. Supplemental
Replies: 77
Views: 9955

Re: Medicare Advantage vs. Supplemental

“So I'm at the age where I have to make these decisions. Lord, it's complicated.” Me too and roger-that. These are my goals and concerns (borrowing from previous posts): - “I am more concerned with getting the best coverage possible, and less concerned with cost. My secondary concern is probably si...
by Johnnie
Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KF's simple rules to achieve FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 451
Views: 44669

Re: KF's simple rules to achieve FI [Financial Independence]

Good thread, KF. The rules seem true because at root they are simple arithmetic. IOW, this may not be the only plan that might work for a person, but it's the only plan that's guaranteed to work - asteroid-level collapses of the financial system (or your own human capital) excepted. The rules are al...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Working till retirement is not a great plan
Replies: 175
Views: 16801

Re: Working till retirement is not a great plan

We don’t like to talk about it, but a lot of older workers lose their job because they’re just not that good relative to their pay. I’m a well paid SW engineer at 50+. I know I’m not as good as I used to be. I’ve got a lot of great experience, which counts for something, but there are limits. These...
by Johnnie
Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building a bridge to Social Security: When to start?
Replies: 34
Views: 5032

Building a bridge to Social Security: When to start?

When I retire in the next 3-5 years I plan to use "Cut-Throat's famous 'Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money earlier'" method: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=102609 On retirement, withdraw from your portfolio an amount equivalent to annual Social Security at 70 x th...
by Johnnie
Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?
Replies: 21
Views: 1512

Re: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?

From Larry Swedroe, World Isn’t Flat—Invest Accordingly : "...As you can see, the benefits of international diversification are greater when investing in international small and small value stocks and in emerging markets than when investing in the international large stocks in the EAFE Index. "Becau...