Search found 563 matches

by Johnnie
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 310
Views: 28319

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

I'm not doing anything because my plan says rebalance in January, plus I'm close to retirement. If this this thing goes to 50% I may nibble a tiny bit. Just so in years hence I can say I did if it works, and never say a word if it doesn't. :wink:
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to sell bond funds and go to a money market fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 1088

Re: Time to sell bond funds and go to a money market fund?

I rebalanced downwards yesterday, but it's a good question. I have no idea. It sure feels like riding a 50 ft wave that can come crashing down on my head. Being long long-bonds like a 50 foot tidal wave - exactly. Medium durations too. Sitting in a money market fund at 0.05% would feel pretty sweet...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to sell bond funds and go to a money market fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 1088

Re: Time to sell bond funds and go to a money market fund?

How did he accumulate losses on a 2-year treasuries ETF ? And even I held 10-years I'd be locking in big bond price gains, not losses. And would be avoiding big losses if/when rates recover. The foregone yield by going from two-year bonds to an MMF for six months or a year is pretty minimal at thes...
by Johnnie
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to sell bond funds and go to a money market fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 1088

Time to sell bond funds and go to a money market fund?

I raise the question with an eye toward what happens when the bond market eventually returns to normal. Isn't that another way of saying, "When the temporary exogenous panic-driven gains in bond prices reverse and crush those who piled in at the highs?" I'm in a two-year treasury ETF so the downside...
by Johnnie
Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "If Value Stocks Are Toxic, Why Aren’t Junk Bonds?"
Replies: 6
Views: 836

"If Value Stocks Are Toxic, Why Aren’t Junk Bonds?"

Bloomberg article posted on Yahoo asks the question in the thread title. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/value-stocks-toxic-why-aren-100037924.html "...By the summer of 2019, investors began wailing about the death of value investing even as their faith in junk bonds remained unshaken. It’s a strikin...
by Johnnie
Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 718
Views: 105194

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Just a couple years from retirement, I've been thinking about this: Use the 4% SWR as a benchmark, and in the first few years distribute 5% of the then-current portfolio value in good years, and 4% of it in bad years, a form of the Taylor "a little more, a little less" method. Until age 70 that's o...
by Johnnie
Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 718
Views: 105194

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Just a couple years from retirement, I've been thinking about this: Use the 4% SWR as a benchmark, and in the first few years distribute 5% of the then-current portfolio value in good years, and 4% of it in bad years, a form of the Taylor "a little more, a little less" method. Until age 70 that's on...
by Johnnie
Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall of Worry
Replies: 21
Views: 2698

Re: Wall of Worry

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:10 pm
'Uncertainty in the markets' is as evergreen as 'There's a crisis in the Middle East.'
Uh-oh: Has yet another Roman general gone off glory-hounding against the Parthians?

(Crassus you dummy, Bogleheads could have told you to skip the desert and mind your lucrative REITs!)
by Johnnie
Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net Worth ??
Replies: 129
Views: 12638

Re: Net Worth ??

When determining my net worth..... I include my 401K balance in the ASSETS. Do I include the tax liability for the 401k in the LIABILITIES? :?: Yes, of course. Make an educated guess. If you don’t add it, you’re just stating the tax rate will be zero in the future for you. Right, that's what good b...
by Johnnie
Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.
Replies: 85
Views: 6204

Re: Paul Merriman will be our February 2020 "Bogleheads on Investing" guest.

I have a question for Paul Merriman: Paul, a Boglehead member asks: He has heard you say half your investment money is in 50/50 UBH, and half in a "mechanical" momentum-triggered market timing system managed by a professional. You report the latter keeps you out at the worst times and also at the be...
by Johnnie
Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you prefer etfs or mutual funds?
Replies: 271
Views: 9857

Re: Vanguard phasing out regular mutual fund shares?

Yes, I had noticed, along with other indications of an emphasis on ETFs. It seems as if they've constantly had something about ETFs in their home page highlights or rotating adlets or whatever you'd call 'em for some time now... And since I personally like mutual funds and dislike ETFs, it doesn't ...
by Johnnie
Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 445
Views: 115772

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

Fairly late I discovered the career I was meant to have and began to thrive. I saved big-time out of habit. I lived frugally out of necessity, and then habit. Now I am on the threshold of retiring and relocating to a nice lakefront home in a scenic LCOLA area, with an income and assets several times...
by Johnnie
Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Shopping for used: 2017 Toyota Camry vs 2017 Nissan Altima
Replies: 22
Views: 1619

Re: Shopping for used: 2017 Toyota Camry vs 2017 Nissan Altima

It sounds like Klang got what he needed, but I just wanted to say how we do it: When you find what you want go to cars.com advanced search, dial that exact car in for a national or a 500 mile search , and you'll see right away what it's worth, subject to the usual qualifications. I have a Venza btw,...
by Johnnie
Mon Dec 23, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter Lynch on Barron's Roundtable Tonight
Replies: 61
Views: 5036

Re: Peter Lynch on Barron's Roundtable Tonight

Paul Merriman dissected Lynch's performance at Magellan on a podcast one time and ascribed it primarily to the luck of being at the helm during a particularly good time to be in the market; as I recall the analysis included something about massive style drift over that time. He was dissing hype not ...
by Johnnie
Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Transferring 403b from fidelity to vanguard roth ira
Replies: 6
Views: 367

Re: Transferring 403b from fidelity to vanguard roth ira

I've done this, with one difference - both my 403b and my rollover IRA are at Vanguard. At age 60 (a non-taxable "qualifying event") I rolled the former into the latter. I still contribute to the 403b and just leave that in there for now. Most of the portfolio is in the IRA. As far as I know nothing...
by Johnnie
Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US vs Intl Total Stock Market
Replies: 55
Views: 3937

Re: US vs Intl Total Stock Market

This one stuck in my mind, and I think it applies in other areas too: Here's the thing - I didn't invest in US and INTL because I thought they both were going to give me great returns, I did it because I figured ONE OF THEM would give good returns, and the other one would hopefully not do too badly....
by Johnnie
Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Some guidance please
Replies: 12
Views: 933

Re: Some guidance please

Over-tip. Pick up the checks if others at the table haven't "arrived" yet. Those are two little things that give me an inordinate amount of satisfaction. :) They don't "give back" much though (not that I "took" anything in the first place), so I am also funding a partially disabled young relative's ...
by Johnnie
Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement planning book
Replies: 12
Views: 912

Re: Retirement planning book

I used to no know I know nothing about retirement investing, and the guy who straightened was Paul Merriman, whose stuff I began reading on Marketwatch about 5 years ago. His "Ultimate Buy and Hold" portfolio is discussed here occasionally, but the real value for me was all the basic "how to" articl...
by Johnnie
Fri Nov 22, 2019 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard’s chief economist says [elevated risk of stock drawdowns]
Replies: 54
Views: 6638

Re: Vanguard’s chief economist says [elevated risk of stock drawdowns]

Why Vanguard’s chief economist says there is an elevated risk of a ‘large drawdown’ in stocks. I can't stand it when they talk that way. Mainly it reminds me of certain bureaucratic boards and commissions whose statements are so filled with jargon and terms of art that a standard jibe holds, "You c...
by Johnnie
Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wheres best place park emergency funds these days?
Replies: 47
Views: 6183

Re: Wheres best place park emergency funds these days?

Someone once said here, "My portfolio IS my emergency fund."

Maybe not for younger people, but as a pre-retiree that rang true for me.
(Pay no attention to that excessive balance in a local checking account. :oops: )
by Johnnie
Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gates' backed Heliogen may revolutionize energy industry
Replies: 65
Views: 6533

Re: Bill Gates' backed Heliogen may revolutionize energy industry

One word: Magnitudes. Also, beware the hype. The potential contribution of any suggested alternative cannot be assessed without setting it alongside the magnitude of energy required to sustain the industrial civilization that sustains a world population of 8 billion. Efficiency improvements could po...
by Johnnie
Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for a down market
Replies: 78
Views: 7117

Re: Preparing for a down market

I'm slightly puzzled by the extent many here distinguish between 'cash' and bonds in the current environment. The devil's in the details, but there doesn't seem to be much difference in bond returns long or short, except long comes with a lot more risk if inflation returns. The plan for this part of...
by Johnnie
Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Outlook
Replies: 19
Views: 2552

Re: Market Outlook

I'm looking at a 25 year retirement, max, probably not much more than 20 years. I want to leave something for the family but don't need to change lives with it. 25 years is not a long time in terms of market cycles. Not long enough to be sure of recovery from a big early downdraft. And so, there is ...
by Johnnie
Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The difficulty of discarding frugality?
Replies: 110
Views: 11150

Re: The difficulty of discarding frugality?

I am a couple years from retirement and have about "arrived" as far as having enough. I found a recent meme going around about the three levels of wealth useful for giving vocabulary to some of these concepts. The first level of wealth is escape from debt. I forget if that included mortgage, it migh...
by Johnnie
Sat Nov 09, 2019 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?
Replies: 178
Views: 12702

Re: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?

Here's how I plan to do it... 5 year CD ladder. Rest in 50/50 stocks/bonds. (at 25x expenses, this would be equal to 40/60 stocks/bonds). Each year, cash out the CD that is expiring, and buy a new 5-year CD using dividends and money from whichever side is higher. If stocks are up, sell stocks. If s...
by Johnnie
Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do Bogleheads buy cars?
Replies: 117
Views: 19747

Re: How do Bogleheads buy cars?

Makes perfect sense - but how do you determine the time of this economic season? You go shopping <shrug>. In the "good" seasons, there are scads of quality used cars 2-3 years old with <35k miles selling at very substantial discounts to new, like half to 60 percent of the new car price. In the less...
by Johnnie
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do Bogleheads buy cars?
Replies: 117
Views: 19747

Re: How do Bogleheads buy cars?

There is a time of the economic "season" when slightly-used cars can be had for very reasonable prices, and another time when they more scarce and costly, and it makes more sense to buy new. For 20 years starting in the late 1980's I bought slightly-used Taurus wagons for a relative song, and three ...
by Johnnie
Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WSJ Digital Subscription - a bargain!
Replies: 152
Views: 56331

Re: WSJ Digital Subscription - a bargain!

...To think back of the days when it was three sections, smaller print, and larger paper! How did we ever read it all? Reminds me of those old IBD TV ads, "I don't have time for all the fluff!" :) The Journal's online-rates have always been reasonable/not daunting, back to when such things were "in...
by Johnnie
Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 117
Views: 16592

Re: Long Term Bonds getting killed today

Maybe it's just because I came of age during the great inflation/bond rout of the 1970s-80s, but here's what scares me, and it's not zombies, it's long bonds. Those things can kill you. (They then went on to make their owners good money for 40 years, but I'm still skeered.)
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR and shorter time frames
Replies: 11
Views: 1283

Re: SWR and shorter time frames

Garland and Will, thanks for those useful responses.
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 IRS Limits Announced for 401(k)'s etc.
Replies: 28
Views: 5043

Re: 2020 IRS Limits Announced for 401(k)'s etc.

This thread is poignant, because this is the first year in ages that I'm not maxing Roth and 403b contributions, as I begin a gradual transition from accumulation to distribution. It's time to start paying those taxes, Johnnie, on both current and deferred income, with Roth conversions right up to t...
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: It’s Time For A Venial Value-Timing Sin
Replies: 19
Views: 2171

Re: Cliff Asness: It’s Time For A Venial Value-Timing Sin

Venial? Some BH cardinals might challenge that. Specifically, it looks like making an A/A shift based on what appears hot right now - value. OTOH, here's a timing sin I regard as legitimately "venial," and one I committed to my advantage this year (IOW, I got lucky): Holding off on intended Roth con...
by Johnnie
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 107
Views: 11259

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

This is the point in the conversation when someone injects the two alternative approaches to Social Security. I'll do it, by quoting the relevant David Jay post from the last "file or wait?" thread: ... It is not really about the math, it is about how you view the program: View A (I call this the “R...
by Johnnie
Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market index investing - problem of induction?
Replies: 41
Views: 4057

Re: Stock market index investing - problem of induction?

Hume's observation about a natural phenomenon is criticized in some quarters; I believe the critique is essentially, “To observation we add reason , dummy!” In this instance we're discussing something different though - “Behavior, Beings, Human, Mark 1” - and for that application reason goes out the...
by Johnnie
Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inside Fisher Investments
Replies: 123
Views: 12997

Re: Inside Fisher Investments

I'm very ignorant - why would Fidelity have investments with Fisher? I thought that was their job? Was he/that firm listed as one of their active managers from a fund? Otherwise.... Yeah, I'd dump him in a NY minute. I had the same question about the state of Michigan's pension fund managers, who a...
by Johnnie
Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast transcripts are becoming available
Replies: 9
Views: 1352

Re: "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast transcripts are becoming available

Terrific, and much obliged to all who helped. I just read the Larry Swedroe edition - very stimulating.
by Johnnie
Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unique withdrawal method
Replies: 65
Views: 7849

Re: Unique withdrawal method

You mean something besides SWR, VPW, PMT, Kitces ratcheting method, Guyton-Klinger decision rules, ERN's valuation method, 1/N, fixed % of portfolio, Gummy's sensible withdrawals, Taylor's withdraw more if your portfolio does well and less if it doesn't, spend only dividends, McClung's Prime Harves...
by Johnnie
Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]
Replies: 173
Views: 15959

Re: Paul Merriman article

Merriman’s recommendation is close to what we’re currently doing with equities, though the portfolio has 70% fixed income. My two cents: a three fund portfolio is fine; Merriman’s blend is fine. Lots of combinations will work, but knowing which will work BEST is unknowable until after the fact. The...
by Johnnie
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate in today’s low yield environment
Replies: 44
Views: 4327

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate in today’s low yield environment

I know nothing, and like the thread topic this is speculative, but among the factors in play when inflation and rates spiked in the 1970s and early '80s what the demographic "pig in the python" that was the boomer generation was moving into their prime household formation, spending and earning years...
by Johnnie
Sat Oct 05, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over Confident in Old-age: Cognitive Decline and Financial Literacy
Replies: 83
Views: 8610

Re: Over Confident in Old-age: Cognitive Decline and Financial Literacy

Seems like one could set up a test for themselves that has randomized questions that they take at some regular interval. If/when they start failing the test repeatedly, they should have a clear action plan of what to do, determined in advance. I recommend and practice regular "Am I nuts?" checks at...
by Johnnie
Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plz share what you did to minimize retirement taxes
Replies: 32
Views: 4379

Re: Plz share what you did to minimize retirement taxes

I'll have four years between when I stop working and take SS at 70. During that time I plan to convert up to the next tax bracket. Probably about $40k/year. In these last few years at work I've started doing smaller conversions, "filling out" my current bracket. It struck me that paying those extra ...
by Johnnie
Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......
Replies: 148
Views: 15194

Re: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......

Here's the thing - I didn't invest in US and INTL because I thought they both were going to give me great returns, I did it because I figured ONE OF THEM would give good returns, and the other one would hopefully not do too badly. Unfortunately, I didn't know which one it would be... Hey that's pre...
by Johnnie
Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in
Replies: 92
Views: 15472

Re: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in

I've been in that late career "power-on" stage for going on 10 years (but not much longer). One change in the last couple years was to turn-down the "power setting" - new contributions now go into Treasuries as I strive to whittle down equities to a more conservative early-retirement A/A. I will not...
by Johnnie
Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:
Replies: 94
Views: 6599

Re: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:

"Sometimes the risk is realized" is a cute way of expressing it I saw recently, I think from Larry S. :-) Maybe "elegant" more than "cute."
by Johnnie
Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I skip scheduled car maintenance?
Replies: 26
Views: 2072

Re: Should I skip scheduled car maintenance?

I've got a 2013 Toyota that specifies synthetic oil. It also has an irritating light that goes on every 5,000 miles saying "service needed" or something like that, by which they mean "take it the dealer and get oil changed." Dudes, synthetic oil is designed to stay good for 50,000 miles , not 5,000!...
by Johnnie
Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you sacrifice to save?
Replies: 97
Views: 9240

Re: Do you sacrifice to save?

I don't sacrifice, but I hardly spend any more than base expenses. I just never got in the habit I guess, and no kids makes it possible. I like travel OK, but it's a big hassle, starting with getting through the airport, so don't do it much outside of work. I like cool cars, but mostly regard vehicl...
by Johnnie
Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you a "solo ager?"
Replies: 133
Views: 19643

Re: Are you a "solo ager?"

Op--Check out this recent NPR article on making new friends, I think this is relevant to this topic as well as in my case as single ager https://www.npr.org/751479810 While I agree that the above article is interesting & tangentially-related to this discussion, I hope it doesn't evolve into a derai...
by Johnnie
Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking a break in your 50s: Is it the kiss of death?
Replies: 86
Views: 9287

Re: Taking a break in your 50s: Is it the kiss of death?

But sometimes I think that getting fired could be a fun way to retire. And I wonder how long it would take if I ...merely dialed the effort meter back to a pleasant 3 or 4, occasionally leaving early to rest up. LOL, I have never thought or spoken about my own retirement date without adding the qua...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you a "solo ager?"
Replies: 133
Views: 19643

Re: Are you a "solo ager?"

I am likely in this boat and have been planning accordingly. Once the financial plan was in place and funded my thoughts turned increasingly to the social side. I have a small circle of cronies in the community where I plan to retire, but they are not getting any younger either. So the "build a comm...
by Johnnie
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense
Replies: 92
Views: 7301

Re: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense

My first thought is- the projection for increasing life expectancy may be already wrong right out-of-the-gate. Recent demographic trends (as posted in a recent BH post from someone else) show a decline in average lifespan for average US men and women. Doesn’t bode well for the credibility of the ar...