Search found 178 matches

by JamalJones
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does your Crystal Ball say?
Replies: 96
Views: 4921

Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Recession for 3-5 years. People get used to this new normal and slowly get back into the market in 3-6 months. Market fully recovers in 5 years. I'm sure I'm completely wrong but that's my crystal ball :) Hmmmmmmm... You got me curious. “Panic of 1873 and the Long Depression“ — 5 years and 5 months...
by JamalJones
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High equity allocation FIRE folks
Replies: 5
Views: 711

Re: High equity allocation FIRE folks

Very curious how one select group of Bogleheads is feeling during this market downturn: those who prefer high equity allocations up to 80%-100% as early retirees. The strategy is commonly advocated for (e.g. Karsten at Early Retirement Now) with strong logical rationale and backtested portfolio sur...
by JamalJones
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another Wash Sale Question (sorry...)
Replies: 11
Views: 500

Re: Another Wash Sale Question (sorry...)

Or alternatively, I could dollar cost average and buy shares once a week but then stop on say around November 15 and then do tax loss harvesting the last couple weeks of December - if appropriate? You can't control the timing of the TLH opportunity. It's a strike-while-the-iron-is-hot kind of thing...
by JamalJones
Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another Wash Sale Question (sorry...)
Replies: 11
Views: 500

Re: Another Wash Sale Question (sorry...)

iceport, No problem! Thank you again… I will go ahead and sell those February lots… And yeah they’re definitely underwater… I guess this also brings up taxable account investing strategy… Not what kind of investments to have, asset allocation or anything but setting yourself up for tax loss harvesti...
by JamalJones
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another Wash Sale Question (sorry...)
Replies: 11
Views: 500

Re: Another Wash Sale Question (sorry...)

BUT...is it a wash sale if I've been purchasing VIOV in the 30 days BEFORE I sold it? Because I'm regularly buying shares every couple weeks...? As long as you sell the shares purchased within the wash sale period, you're OK. It's NOT a wash sale. Wash Sales and Replacement Stock Might want to read...
by JamalJones
Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another Wash Sale Question (sorry...)
Replies: 11
Views: 500

Re: Another Wash Sale Question (sorry...)

Dang. Oh well.
by JamalJones
Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another Wash Sale Question (sorry...)
Replies: 11
Views: 500

Another Wash Sale Question (sorry...)

. I thought I had tax loss harvesting down, but need to get something straight. Let's say for example I have VIOV (Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF). And I buy shares of this every 2 weeks. Then is goes down, say 20%, and I want to TLH. So I sell some lots of it and buy VBR (Vanguard Small-Cap ...
by JamalJones
Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Japan like "lost decades" possible in US and world stock market?
Replies: 82
Views: 8407

Re: Are Japan like "lost decades" possible in US and world stock market?

. There could be and have been! True CAGR S&P 500 by decade: 1871 - 1879: 11.35% 1880 - 1889: 8.06% 1890 - 1899: 5.58% 1900 - 1909: 7.32% 1910 - 1919: -1.79% 1920 - 1929: 16.56% 1930 - 1939: 1.96% 1940 - 1949: 3.51% 1950 - 1959: 17.01% 1960 - 1969: 5.13% 1970 - 1979: -1.45% 1980 - 1989: 11.97% 1990...
by JamalJones
Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if Fed cut doesn't work?
Replies: 137
Views: 6531

Re: What if Fed cut doesn't work?

JoeRetire wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:11 am
So the Fed just cut rates by 50 bps.

What is it doesn't work? What's next?
Kent Brockman : Professor, without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?

Professor : Yes I would, Kent.
by JamalJones
Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich people are hoarding cash
Replies: 233
Views: 35028

Re: Rich people are hoarding cash

My grandfather (born 1906) always knew that his dog and a .22LR was enough to keep 10 kids fed even if the factory closed or he got fired for helping start a union (that happened twice...) I would think shooting and eating the dog for a family of 12 would be like one meal. Wouldn’t you need several...
by JamalJones
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich people are hoarding cash
Replies: 233
Views: 35028

Re: Rich people are hoarding cash

My grandfather (born 1906) always knew that his dog and a .22LR was enough to keep 10 kids fed even if the factory closed or he got fired for helping start a union (that happened twice...) I would think shooting and eating the dog for a family of 12 would be like one meal. Wouldn’t you need several...
by JamalJones
Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 256
Views: 19146

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

.

Straight Outta Compton Intertwined Securities Limited Dutch Holdings

Long:
CENT
FPRX
MBII

Short:
WDFC
TMO
PSTG
by JamalJones
Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Medicare Rate Change Dates in Missouri
Replies: 3
Views: 373

Re: Medicare Rate Change Dates in Missouri

.
Did the rates also change in Missoura?
by JamalJones
Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So now stocks only return 3% over time?
Replies: 95
Views: 11509

Re: So now stocks only return 3% over time?

- Well, this century, stocks (the S&P 500) have returned a bit over 3% real: Jan 1st 2000 to Dec 31st 2019: 3.79% Of course that's a tad misleading because we all know how different the two decades of this century have been: Jan 1st 2000 to Dec 31st 2009: -3.42% Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2019: 12.59%...
by JamalJones
Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 684
Views: 21319

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Year end S&P 500: 2881.46

Holla at ya boy.
by JamalJones
Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Friendly States
Replies: 441
Views: 35213

Re: Retirement Friendly States

Right, otherwise people would be flocking to move to the absolute lowest cost of living city/town in the country. Not sure where that is, but I suspect it's not the most pleasant place to live. Agreed. Here is a short list of cities that popped up on a "Lowest cost of living cities in the United St...
by JamalJones
Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are the best jobs to downshift into?
Replies: 51
Views: 7944

Re: What are the best jobs to downshift into?

No one's mentioned substitute teacher yet?!?! I'll give a vote for that! Similar situation to bus driver, with respect to time off. But, eventually, depending on the school district, you could work when you want. Every state has different requirements. But you'll probably have to pass some basic ski...
by JamalJones
Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Apple iPhone iOS 13 Discussion
Replies: 79
Views: 10080

Re: Apple iPhone iOS 13 Discussion

I'm very pleased with the call silencing feature that you can enable for all those spam calls. I like not being awoken in the morning with those calls. That's a start. But why not go further? I'm hoping in future iOS releases there's an option to not even see the "missed call" notification. Just sho...
by JamalJones
Wed Oct 02, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recessions and Depressions grouped by GDP contraction
Replies: 13
Views: 1466

Re: Recessions and Depressions grouped by GDP contraction

How are you preparing for this upcoming depression? Are you in cash and gold? I realize that was tongue in cheek but even then, why would I be cash and gold for something atleast a decade away even by my own prediction? I'm a worrier. I worried that, perhaps, you were all in on some "depression pro...
by JamalJones
Wed Oct 02, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recessions and Depressions grouped by GDP contraction
Replies: 13
Views: 1466

Re: Recessions and Depressions grouped by GDP contraction

I think in another decade, current deficit spending, fiscal spending on Social security+ medicare will cross over to form the perfect storm for another depression. Higher taxes will get eaten by increase in "net interest payments". This will leave government helpless to stimulate. To be honest, at ...
by JamalJones
Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Learnings/Regrets from last two recessions
Replies: 91
Views: 12984

Re: Learnings/Regrets from last two recessions

Learnings? I'm assuming you meant lessons. I didn't sell, and I bought more. My regret is that I bought at a normal pace. I think part of the hunger for bad financial news is that we wish we could go back to March 2009 and back up the truck. "Learning" as a noun makes my skin crawl every time I hea...
by JamalJones
Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career change at 36- Finance to Nursing/PA?
Replies: 40
Views: 4107

Re: Career change at 36- Finance to Nursing/PA?

I personally wouldn't. Sounds like a grass is greener on the other side kind of a situation. Are you really considering a 4 year BSN, which means cost of education and opportunity cost? If you go to part time work, your opportunity cost could easily be north of 200k, and that doesn't even take into...
by JamalJones
Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ponder this, BH's... is Ben & Jerry's worth it?
Replies: 142
Views: 12246

Re: Ponder this, BH's... is Ben & Jerry's worth it?

It was worth it for me - many years ago... The regional grocery store chain in the city I lived in during the early 2000s would have B&J's ice cream on special in the winter - 2 pints for $5!! I used to go once a week to buy those pints, then go home and eat them in one sitting! I weighed 40lbs more...
by JamalJones
Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Healthy fast food
Replies: 152
Views: 11862

Re: Healthy fast food

Here you go!

● Just Salad
● Protein Bar
● Subway
● Chipotle
● Veggie Grill
● Tender Greens
● Panera Bread
● Noodles & Company
● LYFE Kitchen
● Sweet Green
by JamalJones
Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"
Replies: 216
Views: 22087

Re: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"

mptfan wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:05 pm
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:27 am
And life expectancies are now reaching over 100 (at least for middle class professionals).
Do you have a cite for that?
Haha! Yeah, I was thinking that too.... No way any significant number of "middle class professionals" are living to 100 or above. Check this out...
by JamalJones
Tue Jun 25, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: what was your worst major purchase? mine is a 2019 mazda3
Replies: 182
Views: 18796

Re: what was your worst major purchase mine is a 2019 mazda3

\ No. I put the ex through school, often working 2 jobs while in school myself. She didn't earn a penny during our 5yrs of marriage. Wow. Does she at least give you free dental care? I honestly don't know (and don't care) if she is practicing. This is exactly why I suggest people pause when they wa...
by JamalJones
Fri Jun 07, 2019 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 8597

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-04/u-s-stocks-still-look-better-than-anywhere-else?srnd=premium And you know what outperformed all of those portfolios over that time period (i.e. 2000-2009)? Gold. But we don't see many threads like "You should diversify your U.S. stock holdings with...
by JamalJones
Fri Jun 07, 2019 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 8597

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

While American outperformance continues to defy history, the rest of the world remains trapped in a bear market. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-04/u-s-stocks-still-look-better-than-anywhere-else?srnd=premium The U.S. is about to celebrate 10 years of uninterrupted economic growth, ...
by JamalJones
Fri Jun 07, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 8597

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

While American outperformance continues to defy history, the rest of the world remains trapped in a bear market. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-04/u-s-stocks-still-look-better-than-anywhere-else?srnd=premium The U.S. is about to celebrate 10 years of uninterrupted economic growth, ...
by JamalJones
Fri Jun 07, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: mapping software
Replies: 5
Views: 517

Re: mapping software

I prefer HEREWeGo to Google maps, since I almost always use the program off line. The maps are downloaded to my phone's memory chip, and I get a message when a map needs to be updated. However, unlike Google Maps, if I'm not mistaken an obsolete map is not automatically deleted after 30 days. Yep, ...
by JamalJones
Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any liveaboards here?
Replies: 47
Views: 6274

Re: Any liveaboards here?

My husband and I are thinking about living aboard a sailboat (probably a catamaran) when he retires. All of this is just speculating/dreaming right now. ... I realize that boats are money pits, but they are also a way of life and have given us great joy and wonderful memories with our kids. Ahhhh, ...
by JamalJones
Wed Mar 06, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 42, Portfolio Checkup, College Savings Question
Replies: 9
Views: 1331

Re: 42, Portfolio Checkup, College Savings Question

1&2 look fine to me. The contribution amount for the 529’s looks good too. I am less sure about you reaching you 2.5 million goal by age 65. It’s possible, but feels like a bit of a stretch... * Current Portfolio: $625,000.00 * New annual contributions to 401(k) + taxable account: $48,740.00 * Year...
by JamalJones
Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ups the Ante in an ETF Race to Zero - Fees are coming down on seven ETFs
Replies: 97
Views: 10174

Re: Vanguard Ups the Ante in an ETF Race to Zero Fees are coming down on seven ETFs, with combined assets of more t

Interesting that ETF expense ratios are lower for some funds than Admiral shares. Strong reason to purchase ETF versus Admiral. Seems like Vanguard is pushing holders to ETFs based on expense ratio pricing. Why? It was clear from some of the annual reports this fall that this was coming. My theory ...
by JamalJones
Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ups the Ante in an ETF Race to Zero - Fees are coming down on seven ETFs
Replies: 97
Views: 10174

Re: Vanguard Ups the Ante in an ETF Race to Zero Fees are coming down on seven ETFs, with combined assets of more t

Interesting that ETF expense ratios are lower for some funds than Admiral shares. Strong reason to purchase ETF versus Admiral. Seems like Vanguard is pushing holders to ETFs based on expense ratio pricing. Why? It was clear from some of the annual reports this fall that this was coming. My theory ...
by JamalJones
Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New era for TSP "I" Fund?
Replies: 119
Views: 17415

Re: New era for TSP "I" Fund?

Anyone have information on the timeline for competing I Fund management? I can't find where I originally saw it, but about a month ago or so I saw where Ravi Deo (TSP Executive Director) said that the transition for the I fund to the new benchmark won't be fully completed until ~ 2020. Not "sometim...
by JamalJones
Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity ZERO YTD Performance
Replies: 33
Views: 5536

Re: Fidelity ZERO YTD Performance

—- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX): Year-to-date: 8.97% :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag Pissing conte...
by JamalJones
Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity ZERO YTD Performance
Replies: 33
Views: 5536

Re: Fidelity ZERO YTD Performance

—- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX): Year-to-date: 8.97% :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
by JamalJones
Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Thrift Savings Plan expense ratio climbs to 0.04%
Replies: 26
Views: 5559

Re: TSP Thrift Savings Plan expense ratio climbs to 0.04%

Anymore it seems the edge offered by the TSP is mostly the G fund. If the threats to scale its yield back to money market like ever materialize I will likely roll over my legacy account just to simplify things. +1 I completely agree with you. The G fund is now the primary reason to stay in the TSP....
by JamalJones
Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Thrift Savings Plan expense ratio climbs to 0.04%
Replies: 26
Views: 5559

Re: TSP Thrift Savings Plan expense ratio climbs to 0.04%

I was wondering when TSP was going to post their 2018 ERs.... Man, just a few years ago having TSP + Vanguard would ensure you the lowest expense ratio out there. No longer the case. Now my combined ER just keeps creeping up and up.... Like the OP said, more bells and whistles for the TSP so they'll...
by JamalJones
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon marketplace delivery problem: who is to blame?
Replies: 11
Views: 1094

Re: Amazon marketplace delivery problem: who is to blame?

I’ve had two packages delivered that I never received. I just contacted FedEx, explained the situation, I got a claim number from them, which I’ve then relayed to the vendor… And then that vendor just sent me a new package free of charge. Also, I just found it hilarious that Uncle Scrooge and Huey, ...
by JamalJones
Sun Jan 27, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investment experts predict that US equity will return -4.1% to 2.6% over the next decade. Time to get out of US equity?
Replies: 75
Views: 8715

Re: Investment experts predict that US equity will return -4.1% to 2.6% over the next decade. Time to get out of US equi

-4.1% nominal return for TEN YEARS??? lol, no. I am literally betting 80% of my net worth that wont happen. Bro, the article is talking REAL not nominal. That would equal a 34% real DECREASE through 2028. That $1 million you have? By the end of 2028 you’ll have $728,000…( assuming 20% of your portf...
by JamalJones
Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Marketwatch - If everyone invested like John Bogle, markets couldn’t work right
Replies: 54
Views: 3981

Re: Marketwatch - If everyone invested like John Bogle, markets couldn’t work right

Haha! These were both great! :beer 2) If everybody flushed their toilets at the same time it would cause chaos. According to "if-everyone" reasoning, for the good of humankind, you should not ever flush your toilet, or you should at least feel guilty about it. If the entire human population of Earth...
by JamalJones
Tue Jan 22, 2019 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New era for TSP "I" Fund?
Replies: 119
Views: 17415

Re: New era for TSP "I" Fund?

So has anyone done a back-cast to compare the performance difference between these two different benchmarks over the past 10-20 years? 03/26/2008 to 01/21/2019: Less than $4.00? Wow. And the "old" index out performed..... http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=ACWX®ion=usa&culture=en-U...
by JamalJones
Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New era for TSP "I" Fund?
Replies: 119
Views: 17415

Re: New era for TSP "I" Fund?

From respected Bogleheads MnD who follows the TSP closely, MnD wrote yesterday in a different thread: Later this year you will be able to roll your own Total World at 53/47 or whatever it is then with TSP C, S and I for an overall ER of 0.03%, assuming the I fund contract holds to 0.03% at renewal....
by JamalJones
Tue Jan 22, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New era for TSP "I" Fund?
Replies: 119
Views: 17415

Re: New era for TSP "I" Fund?

As of January 1st the TSP "I" Fund will be very different from what it has been before... Specifically, more comprehensively International (I). Do you have a source for that date? I have not yet seen a specific calendar day cited for the planned index change. +1 The news stories I've seen all indic...
by JamalJones
Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Funniest movies of all time? Name five of your favorites...
Replies: 220
Views: 32479

Re: Funniest movies of all time? Name five of your favorites...

* Naked Gun
* Planes, Trains and Automobiles
* The Hangover
* Forgetting Sarah Marshall
* Old School

Honorable mention
* Space Balls
* Three Amigos
by JamalJones
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you ever "win" big?
Replies: 133
Views: 11013

Re: Did you ever "win" big?

Bought 100 shares of Amazon for $6,000 in 1999. Still holding and now worth $164,000. This is the only individual stock that we own and never plan to buy individual stocks again! My mom sold this house to this one woman who paid cash for it. This woman felt the need to explain how she could do that...
by JamalJones
Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST [Entry deadline has passed]
Replies: 701
Views: 21910

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

2019 S&P 500 value at year end: 2218.56