Search found 182 matches

by Bastiat
Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What return is Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund returning?
Replies: 21
Views: 1564

Re: What return is Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund returning?

Jesteroftheswamp wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:45 am
My Cap One MMA has dipped down the 1.50%, can Vanguard do better?
https://lmgtfy.com/?q=Vanguard+Prime+MM+yield
by Bastiat
Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey's Millionaire Study
Replies: 100
Views: 21516

Re: Dave Ramsey's Millionaire Study

Here's my other wish: That a lot of Boglehead millionaires will participate and indicate that majority of their investments are in Index funds and that they don't use a financial adviser. Maybe that will influence Dave on his condescending thoughts about Index funds......I can only hope! 90% of our...
by Bastiat
Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: December 6, 2019--Vanguard Releases 2020 Economic and Market Outlook Report
Replies: 84
Views: 5519

Re: December 6, 2019--Vanguard Releases 2020 Economic and Market Outlook Report

So in the report, they make multiple references to "new economy" vs "old economy". What's the distinction? Page 24: "The old economy is based on state- owned enterprises; low-end and heavy manufacturing industries such as textile, coal, steel, and concrete production; and real estate. The new, cons...
by Bastiat
Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Creative tips on best deal health insurance?
Replies: 8
Views: 709

Re: Creative tips on best deal health insurance?

The only creative tip I have is for "free" health insurance:

Join the military.
by Bastiat
Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off mortgage with sale of taxable account assets?
Replies: 87
Views: 4967

Re: Pay off mortgage with sale of taxable account assets?

I'm not a fan of making emotional decisions with sub-optimal outcomes. It depends entirely on what you're trying to optimize. Some are trying to maximize their net wealth. Others are trying to minimize negative emotions. Etc. As such, what is 'optimal' for one may not be for another. Does anyone (b...
by Bastiat
Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off mortgage with sale of taxable account assets?
Replies: 87
Views: 4967

Re: Pay off mortgage with sale of taxable account assets?

I'm not a fan of making emotional decisions with sub-optimal outcomes. Obviously anything can happen, but in general TSM should beat 3.65% (minus your marginal tax rate benefit) over 26 years. Not only that but it's costing you Liquidity/options and LTCG. Just cashflow it after you've maxed retireme...
by Bastiat
Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 849
Views: 109008

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

OP must be really smiling right now :) How many people believe markets will see a new high this year? Just one month back most people were happy predicting SPX at 3000. Now, we have no China deal and we have a trade war with Mexico. OP, what is your target for SPX for this year? I am predicting SPX...
by Bastiat
Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: G Fund Question in Retirement
Replies: 32
Views: 2752

Re: G Fund Question in Retirement

Your ultimate plan on having several years of net expenses (total expenses minus your pension and Social Security benefits) in cash — the G fund in this case — at retirement makes perfect sense. Thank you. I seem to get a lot of push back on this point. It allows you to be more aggressive with the ...
by Bastiat
Sat Jun 01, 2019 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio advice for a military member
Replies: 15
Views: 1005

Re: Portfolio advice for a military member

I don't think selling your individual stocks is a must. Those are pretty good companies; the only one I'd probably sell is Tesla. For the others be conscious of the likely tax liability associated with selling. Are you a warrant or line officer? You're likely going to be in the 24% federal tax brack...
by Bastiat
Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?
Replies: 369
Views: 40883

Re: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?

No one has mentioned airline pilot.

A Captain on a wide-body long haul route can approach the $500k mark. $200-400k is more common. Schedule and perks aren't bad.
by Bastiat
Fri May 31, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA to Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1461

Re: AA to Bonds

Because not everyone approaches it the way you do. Some people take a holistic view of their portfolio and don't break it down into an "I need $47,352.33 repeating per year for expenses for X years" approach. Some people, for instance, might say: "I have X number of dollars right now. I'd like to pr...
by Bastiat
Thu May 30, 2019 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling Worst Case Scenarios & Does AA Matter When Consistently Contributing?
Replies: 16
Views: 1552

Re: Modeling Worst Case Scenarios & Does AA Matter When Consistently Contributing?

The change in AA had very little impact long-term. Less than 1% on CAGR over 10 years. This has me considering going more conservative than my current 85/15 AA. This is the only conclusion I think is off base. Small changes in CAGR matter significantly over time. And you were looking at the worst p...
by Bastiat
Sun May 05, 2019 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion
Replies: 55
Views: 6594

Re: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion

Both Buffet and Munger in the past few days in interviews have stated that Berkshire is apt to outperform the 500 by a "bit." The elephant in the room is Buffet's age and health. I'm sure Berkshire can slightly beat the S&P, assuming Buffet stays in control. But even if he has very competent people...
by Bastiat
Sun Apr 21, 2019 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How and when did you do it - to get to 1 Million
Replies: 130
Views: 28607

Re: How and when did you do it - to get to 1 Million

If you are talking about net worth I did it in my mid-late 20's by investing in real estate. I got lucky with the timing and also worked really hard to get a good deal on my first property, and have been thus far successful (but not as successful) with my second. Both rentals are cashflow positive, ...
by Bastiat
Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on this Forbes article? "Why Most Index Funds And ETFs Are Not Good Investments"
Replies: 76
Views: 11256

Re: Thoughts on this Forbes article? "Why Most Index Funds And ETFs Are Not Good Investments"

Very large investors (think Warren Buffett) can achieve higher than average returns, not by actively picking stocks but by actively picking COMPANIES to buy and manage. Or they can achieve lower than average returns, if their management skills are less than the incumbents of the firms they acquire....
by Bastiat
Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand stock buybacks
Replies: 89
Views: 4445

Re: I don't understand stock buybacks

Yes, like I said, cash (an asset) goes down. Shareholder Equity (liability side) also goes down. I said that. Dividends have the same effect on the balance sheet. The whole point of a share buyback is to return value to shareholders . You can't return value while also retaining value. We're having ...
by Bastiat
Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand stock buybacks
Replies: 89
Views: 4445

Re: I don't understand stock buybacks

The reason stock buybacks don’t affect share price is because the company spent its cash to buy back those shares. There are fewer shares now but the company is also worth less. No, therev are fewer shares but the company is worth the same. If you got a pizza into 8 slices vs 6, do you get more piz...
by Bastiat
Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand stock buybacks
Replies: 89
Views: 4445

Re: I don't understand stock buybacks

“technically speaking, buy-backs don't affect the share price” Haha, then what is the purpose of buybacks? If a company trades at 17x eps and you reduce the number of shares then the eps that you multiply by 17 goes up meaning the share price should go up. If buybacks dont affect stock price then h...
by Bastiat
Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand stock buybacks
Replies: 89
Views: 4445

Re: I don't understand stock buybacks

Double post.
by Bastiat
Sun Mar 31, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS, I bonds, or taxable portfolio to get from 41 to 59.5
Replies: 11
Views: 1419

TIPS, I bonds, or taxable portfolio to get from 41 to 59.5

I'm 31 and will be able to retire in 10 years with a military pension with a low end of $55,000/year in today's dollars. The pension will have inflation adjustments and includes medical benefits for my family. My wife is finishing a clinical doctorate in May and will start off with earnings potentia...
by Bastiat
Fri Mar 29, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12414
Views: 2146517

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

For all the noise on here, people "going to cash", and the consternation in the last quarter last year, it's worth pointing out that we are getting ready to close the best quarter since Q3 2009, and the best Q1 since 1998. Of course, that doesn't mean anything at all about the future. What it does m...
by Bastiat
Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Investing Resources?
Replies: 17
Views: 1657

Re: Real Estate Investing Resources?

There is more money in real estate: The value of the US real estate market is about 50% higher than the total market cap of all US equities. can you confirm the source for the claim made above? What I see is: The toal market cap of all US equities is $30 trillion: https://www.google.com/search?clie...
by Bastiat
Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Investing Resources?
Replies: 17
Views: 1657

Re: Real Estate Investing Resources?

if you don't think you can do better picking your own stocks, what makes you think you can do better investing in real estate (than the market) when you have no experience doing so to date? This is a false equivalence. The real estate market is not nearly as efficient as the stock market. Buying a ...
by Bastiat
Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 849
Views: 109008

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

For those interested in Market Timer's past calls: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=60549 Shorted gold at $1,290 in September 2010. Gold peaked almost exactly a year later at nearly $2,000/oz. He exited the trade, closed his brokerage account, and put his money in savings bonds ...
by Bastiat
Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: very concerned about stock/bond movement
Replies: 55
Views: 4610

Re: very concerned about stock/bond movement

** edit, found one: https://russellinvestments.com/-/media/images/global/blogs/bearschart1.png?la=en&hash=B094AA87B84E0C20E71A1A7A51EB45718310DE7D Keep in mind that a 80% decline requires a 500% recovery. A 50% decline requires a 200% recovery. A 25% decline requires a 33% recovery. That's just to ...
by Bastiat
Fri Mar 15, 2019 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: very concerned about stock/bond movement
Replies: 55
Views: 4610

Re: very concerned about stock/bond movement

** edit, found one: https://russellinvestments.com/-/media/images/global/blogs/bearschart1.png?la=en&hash=B094AA87B84E0C20E71A1A7A51EB45718310DE7D Keep in mind that a 80% decline requires a 500% recovery. A 50% decline requires a 200% recovery. A 25% decline requires a 33% recovery. That's just to ...
by Bastiat
Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should we pay down 4% loan more quickly or invest in bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 3408

Re: Should we pay down 4% loan more quickly or invest in bonds?

I've seen a few people advocating to forego tax advantaged investing in favor of paying down the debt and just want to comment that I couldn't disagree more. You have a finite amount of tax advantaged space available to you. Once you miss tax advantaged contributions for a year they are gone forever...
by Bastiat
Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 29423

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

I’ve never had an emergency that used up all my e-fund (I keep 1 year’s worth of expenses in cash and short term bonds). The most expensive emergency that I’ve ever had was equivalent to 1 month’s worth of regular expenses which was dealt with using a credit card which was then paid off in full at ...
by Bastiat
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Airline travel and economy: pay $$ to pick seats
Replies: 116
Views: 8284

Re: Airline travel and economy: pay $$ to pick seats

What makes it "difficult" for them to sit next to strangers?

They are teenagers. Taking a flight by themselves should not be an issue, let alone when parents are on the same flight...
by Bastiat
Sat Dec 22, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12414
Views: 2146517

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Cash is king. We’ve been working on accumulating 10+ years of living expenses in cash reserves since 2009. It's easy to say that now that we've seen a good sized correction, but that would have cost you 17+ years of living expenses since 2009. The total return of the S&P 500 from January 2009 to ye...
by Bastiat
Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is The Federal Reserve Necessary
Replies: 14
Views: 655

Re: Is The Federal Reserve Necessary

Well the US existed longer without the Fed than it has existed with it. Many economists, particularly of the Austrian and Chicago schools, would argue that the Fed creates bigger problems in the long term by interfering with the Market, and would point out that the biggest problems in the monetary s...
by Bastiat
Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach says passive investing has reached 'mania' status and says investors should avoid index funds
Replies: 52
Views: 5765

Re: Gundlach says passive investing has reached 'mania' status and says investors should avoid index funds

"Gundlach says passive investing has reached 'mania' status and says investors should avoid index funds" https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/gundlach-says-passive-investing-has-reached-mania-status.html Thoughts? My first thought is to ignore anything Gundlach has to say about anything. You mean you do...
by Bastiat
Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12414
Views: 2146517

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Most of us know something like this will have to happen, just don't know for how low or how long. If you set your AA to your comfort zone, this shouldn't be too much of a worry. Good luck to all and until the next long bull! Looks like we are what, 65 days into this one? How does that compare to al...
by Bastiat
Tue Nov 27, 2018 12:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Networth to buy a dual turboprop aircraft?
Replies: 72
Views: 9820

Re: Networth to buy a dual turboprop aircraft?

I used AAA's numbers for cost to own that LadyGeek posted, which include interest only on the loan and no principle. That average new car payment is $523/mo according to Experian. My real world numbers, reflecting cost to own that includes fixed and variable expenses but not purchase price or any lo...
by Bastiat
Sat Nov 24, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Networth to buy a dual turboprop aircraft?
Replies: 72
Views: 9820

Re: Networth to buy a dual turboprop aircraft?

You can buy and maintain an aircraft for less than many (most?) people spend on automobiles. Buy a used twin or single engine piston for less than most new autos, maybe. Maintain (or operate) for less than most autos, extremely doubtful. You can find more obscure planes for around $10,000; old Cess...
by Bastiat
Sat Nov 24, 2018 3:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Networth to buy a dual turboprop aircraft?
Replies: 72
Views: 9820

Re: Networth to buy a dual turboprop aircraft?

I'm considering buying a turboprop aircraft as it will make it a lot easier for me to visit my family. At what networth would you consider buying a dual engine turboprop aircraft? At $100million I *might* consider buying an aircraft. You can buy and maintain an aircraft for less than many (most?) p...
by Bastiat
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shorting the U.S. stock market
Replies: 18
Views: 2014

Re: Shorting the U.S. stock market

Is this tongue-in-cheek?

E-minis.

Short any S&P 500 ETF.

Buy any inverse S&P 500 ETF (SH, SDS, SPXU - 1x, 2x, 3x leveraged respectively).
by Bastiat
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 1,000,000+ by 29
Replies: 23
Views: 5103

Re: 1,000,000+ by 29

I hate to be the Debbie downer realist here, but there is no way you cut spending to the levels you are suggesting without some kind of subsidy beyond just the military. Further you don’t make 100k in the military unless you are very high ranking or a medical specialist / something similar. An inhe...
by Bastiat
Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage or liquidate securities?
Replies: 11
Views: 937

Re: Mortgage or liquidate securities?

Absolutely don't take a 401k loan. Would you be able to take advantage of all your tax advantaged space and pay extra on your mortgage? If so, do that. If not, I'd still get the mortgage. 5 or 10 years from now your income will likely be higher but your mortgage payment will still be the same - so y...
by Bastiat
Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income
Replies: 57
Views: 12223

Re: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income

Are you sure you'd sit on your hands and watch ~$5 million disappear in the next bear market?

Your question is kind of silly. 2% yield on $10 million is an income of $200,000/year without touching principle... and you state your expenses at $60k...

60/40 and forget about it.
by Bastiat
Wed Aug 29, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just put $100K into TUR. Analysis inside
Replies: 71
Views: 3733

Re: Just put $100K into TUR. Analysis inside

The fact that you guys are so negative just confirms the value I am getting. $1 for $4.5 in earnings. Average p/e is 10 for Turkey. You may want to figure out how price to earnings works before making six figure gambles in high-risk countries. Because $4.5 in earnings is not what you're getting per...
by Bastiat
Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 5168

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

BuyAndHoldOn wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:28 am
But are there any metrics under which US Equities are *not* expensive?
The only one that matters: Bid.
by Bastiat
Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military career/college options (engineering - nukes?)
Replies: 45
Views: 3065

Re: Military career/college options (engineering - nukes?)

I'll echo some others here and re-emphasize a few things. For what it's worth, I'm a current Army officer. 3) Nukes likely mean Navy. Some Air Force, very little if any Army/Marines. Navy means fairly easy physical training standards (no offense to any Navy folks out there - I agree with the previo...
by Bastiat
Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military career/college options (engineering - nukes?)
Replies: 45
Views: 3065

Re: Military career/college options (engineering - nukes?)

3) For a nuke engineer, I assume there's a lot of navy interest, and some by the branch that runs our ICBMs, etc. Is the latter the Air Force? Army? Whereas, if he were a civil or mechanical engineer, just about any branch might be interested? (I don't have a US or Royal Navy background -- what I d...
by Bastiat
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Boglehead powerlifters?
Replies: 115
Views: 9463

Re: Any Boglehead powerlifters?

I did Starting Strength (minus the gallon of whole-milk thing) when I really started lifting in my 20's and then moved on to Wendler's (5/3/1) - some back and forth. When work is too busy to really workout for a while I always come back to some variant of SS to start off. www.blackironbeast.com is a...
by Bastiat
Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12414
Views: 2146517

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

But that's part of the reason that equities have had great returns. Volatility and uncertainty keep out a lot of capital that would otherwise pour in. ? Would not that capital cause returns to be even better? Higher demand drives higher prices. The fact that stocks are volatile is part of the reaso...
by Bastiat
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12414
Views: 2146517

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:42 pm
But that's part of the reason that equities have had great returns. Volatility and uncertainty keep out a lot of capital that would otherwise pour in.
?
Would not that capital cause returns to be even better? Higher demand drives higher prices.
by Bastiat
Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When mortgage rates are high, why invest in stock market?
Replies: 36
Views: 4796

Re: When mortgage rates are high, why invest in stock market?

I'm probably missing something blindingly obvious, but I was reading earlier today that mortgage rates in the early 2000s were over 7%. Given that average stock market return is about 7% over time, why was anyone (with a mortgage) investing in the stock market in, say, 2002? Because wouldn't paying...
by Bastiat
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?
Replies: 46
Views: 5642

Re: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?

For planning purposes, I am honestly using a zero percent real rate of return. Hopefully it is a few percent too conservative and hopefully the real rate is not negative. Given today's valuatuons, I don't consider zero conservative. I think fair value for equities is 40% lower than today's levels. ...
by Bastiat
Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?
Replies: 46
Views: 5642

Re: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?

For planning purposes, I am honestly using a zero percent real rate of return. Hopefully it is a few percent too conservative and hopefully the real rate is not negative. Given today's valuatuons, I don't consider zero conservative. I think fair value for equities is 40% lower than today's levels. ...