Search found 140 matches

by Bastiat
Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military career/college options (engineering - nukes?)
Replies: 36
Views: 1615

Re: Military career/college options (engineering - nukes?)

I'll echo some others here and re-emphasize a few things. For what it's worth, I'm a current Army officer. 3) Nukes likely mean Navy. Some Air Force, very little if any Army/Marines. Navy means fairly easy physical training standards (no offense to any Navy folks out there - I agree with the previo...
by Bastiat
Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military career/college options (engineering - nukes?)
Replies: 36
Views: 1615

Re: Military career/college options (engineering - nukes?)

3) For a nuke engineer, I assume there's a lot of navy interest, and some by the branch that runs our ICBMs, etc. Is the latter the Air Force? Army? Whereas, if he were a civil or mechanical engineer, just about any branch might be interested? (I don't have a US or Royal Navy background -- what I d...
by Bastiat
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Boglehead powerlifters?
Replies: 115
Views: 8311

Re: Any Boglehead powerlifters?

I did Starting Strength (minus the gallon of whole-milk thing) when I really started lifting in my 20's and then moved on to Wendler's (5/3/1) - some back and forth. When work is too busy to really workout for a while I always come back to some variant of SS to start off. www.blackironbeast.com is a...
by Bastiat
Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6759
Views: 1470628

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

But that's part of the reason that equities have had great returns. Volatility and uncertainty keep out a lot of capital that would otherwise pour in. ? Would not that capital cause returns to be even better? Higher demand drives higher prices. The fact that stocks are volatile is part of the reaso...
by Bastiat
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6759
Views: 1470628

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:42 pm
But that's part of the reason that equities have had great returns. Volatility and uncertainty keep out a lot of capital that would otherwise pour in.
?
Would not that capital cause returns to be even better? Higher demand drives higher prices.
by Bastiat
Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When mortgage rates are high, why invest in stock market?
Replies: 36
Views: 4304

Re: When mortgage rates are high, why invest in stock market?

I'm probably missing something blindingly obvious, but I was reading earlier today that mortgage rates in the early 2000s were over 7%. Given that average stock market return is about 7% over time, why was anyone (with a mortgage) investing in the stock market in, say, 2002? Because wouldn't paying...
by Bastiat
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?
Replies: 46
Views: 5275

Re: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?

For planning purposes, I am honestly using a zero percent real rate of return. Hopefully it is a few percent too conservative and hopefully the real rate is not negative. Given today's valuatuons, I don't consider zero conservative. I think fair value for equities is 40% lower than today's levels. ...
by Bastiat
Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?
Replies: 46
Views: 5275

Re: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?

For planning purposes, I am honestly using a zero percent real rate of return. Hopefully it is a few percent too conservative and hopefully the real rate is not negative. Given today's valuatuons, I don't consider zero conservative. I think fair value for equities is 40% lower than today's levels. ...
by Bastiat
Sat May 12, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guidelines on ratio of Pre-tax, Roth, Post-tax Investing
Replies: 35
Views: 2236

Re: Guidelines on ratio of Pre-tax, Roth, Post-tax Investing

Working on re-allocating this weekend. Are there any guidelines to ratio of pre-tax, roth, and post-tax investing? The ideal amount of post-tax investing is zero, unless the post-tax investing is non-deductible (non-deductible IRA, after-tax 401(k)), you need the money before retirement, or you are...
by Bastiat
Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mental elasticity as you age & free choice paradigm
Replies: 17
Views: 3149

Re: Mental elasticity as you age & free choice paradigm

This seems to me to be a non sequitur. That experiment involved ranking paintings. There was no new data to indicate a better choice as they were subjective to being with. If you're here I doubt you're choosing your funds subjectively, and objective analysis should lead one to the best choices. Ther...
by Bastiat
Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation
Replies: 76
Views: 8100

Re: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation

Let's be clear: Buffet's 10% - 15% annual return on equity is not the same as a 10%- to 15% annual return on your investment. (Wouldn't that be nice?) Buffet is avoiding the question of valuation, which is something he most certainly does not do with his own investments. But he's telling us to do s...
by Bastiat
Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Article Claiming Vanguard Will Be Responsible For The Next Bear Market
Replies: 29
Views: 4927

Re: An Article Claiming Vanguard Will Be Responsible For The Next Bear Market

By the author's own logic (that Vanguard investors blindly invest every day/month/year no matter what), index investors should help prevent market volatility and crashes. They (not just index investors, but “buy the dippers” in general) reduce volatility in the short run, but make a volatility expl...
by Bastiat
Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 4419

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

We need to be careful about relative terms. The poverty line is $460/yr worldwide, but it is more like $20,000/yr. in the US. Limited to the developed world, the trend in the past 25 years has been for the middle class to be declining. Naturally, we can say that ten times more people are emerging f...
by Bastiat
Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we save for our son's college?
Replies: 96
Views: 9079

Re: Should we save for our son's college?

Regardless of what individuals believe - Here in the US - the government kind of assumes the parents, if they can afford to do so, will be helping out. They do? According to whom? Who is "the government"? According to US government policy on student financial aid. If a student's parents can afford ...
by Bastiat
Sat Apr 14, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we save for our son's college?
Replies: 96
Views: 9079

Re: Should we save for our son's college?

That's pretty harsh. With that kind of attitude we wouldn't have any teachers, social workers or other noble, but low paying jobs. The implicit assumption there is that we wouldn't have any teachers or social workers if people with those degrees didn't have college paid for by their parents, which ...
by Bastiat
Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we save for our son's college?
Replies: 96
Views: 9079

Re: Should we save for our son's college?

Regardless of what individuals believe - Here in the US - the government kind of assumes the parents, if they can afford to do so, will be helping out. They do? According to whom? Who is "the government"? OP: There is no expectation that you pay for your child's college education. From what I have ...
by Bastiat
Sun Apr 08, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Max out 401k or pay off mortgage?
Replies: 18
Views: 1658

Re: Max out 401k or pay off mortgage?

Just about any tax advantaged space is better than none, particularly when the choice is between that and paying down a tax-deductible loan. Once this year is past you never get to access that tax advantaged space again. There is no sense in paying down a relatively small mortgage on a house in whi...
by Bastiat
Sun Apr 08, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Max out 401k or pay off mortgage?
Replies: 18
Views: 1658

Re: Max out 401k or pay off mortgage?

Just about any tax advantaged space is better than none, particularly when the choice is between that and paying down a tax-deductible loan. Once this year is past you never get to access that tax advantaged space again. There is no sense in paying down a relatively small mortgage on a house in whic...
by Bastiat
Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guggenheim's Scott Minerd's dire forecast for financial markets
Replies: 17
Views: 2238

Re: Guggenheim's Scott Minerd's dire forecast for financial markets

Hey all! Did anyone see the Scott Minerds interview today. I know I am supposed to ignore the noise but, this scared me considering I am looking at retiring in 2020/1 and dw in 2019. Is there anyway to make lemonade from this horrible forecast? Just finished portfolio review, made some changes, now...
by Bastiat
Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Liability for 32 year old step son living home
Replies: 79
Views: 10016

Re: Liability for 32 year old step son living home

Why on earth are you putting up with a grown man invading you and your wife's space and consuming what you work for while he contributes nothing? Why don't you want him to move out? "Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Don't teach a man to fish and you feed yourself. He's a grown man... fi...
by Bastiat
Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Lockheed Martin about to become the biggest company in history?
Replies: 66
Views: 7858

Re: Is Lockheed Martin about to become the biggest company in history?

Leo Szilard and Enrico Fermi patented the nuclear reactor in 1934. How many years did it take from patent to real-world application? The nuclear submarine Nautilus sailed in 1955; the first electrical power was generated from the Shippingport reactor in 1957. So, a bit more than twenty years. To be...
by Bastiat
Tue Apr 03, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Lockheed Martin about to become the biggest company in history?
Replies: 66
Views: 7858

Re: Is Lockheed Martin about to become the biggest company in history?

Leo Szilard and Enrico Fermi patented the nuclear reactor in 1934. How many years did it take from patent to real-world application? The nuclear submarine Nautilus sailed in 1955; the first electrical power was generated from the Shippingport reactor in 1957. So, a bit more than twenty years. To be...
by Bastiat
Fri Mar 30, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I be worried about the S&P Index fund ?
Replies: 51
Views: 6242

Re: Should I be worried about the S&P Index fund ?

I am somewhat concerned about the distortion to VFIAX. To paraphrase the summary on the Vanguard website, the fund is supposed to provide a diversified exposure to the biggest 500 US companies. Yet a staggering 25% of the S&P 500 is made up of the five so called tech companies four of which, to my ...
by Bastiat
Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invests money, 3 days later the market tanks.
Replies: 58
Views: 7756

Re: Invests money, 3 days later the market tanks.

I'd say closer to dumb luck... http://lmgtfy.com/?q=FOMC+meeting+dates

The market was down 2.1% on Friday. 2.1% of $6,500 is $136.5. Yawn.
by Bastiat
Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drink package on Royal Caribbean, worth it?
Replies: 73
Views: 7829

Re: Drink package on Royal Caribbean, worth it?

I went on my first cruise last summer and did not get the drink package; definitely the right choice for us. We went down to the Caribbean and only had one day at sea with 5 port calls. At least half of our excursions included as much rum punch as you could drink, so we got plenty to drink between t...
by Bastiat
Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial stability of federal pensions
Replies: 16
Views: 1858

Re: Financial stability of federal pensions

The difference between State and Federal governments is that the Federal government can print its own money. Thus, in my mind the greatest threat to a federal pension is inflation. They are going to have to service the debt somehow, and since I doubt anyone will have the backbone to cut spending (re...
by Bastiat
Mon Feb 26, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett's Shareholder Letter [2017]
Replies: 47
Views: 4655

Re: Buffet - Stock to Bond ratio

bottlecap wrote:
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:11 am
He's wrong.
About what? In what way?
by Bastiat
Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military FIRE; 7 years to go & losing motivation--HELP!
Replies: 36
Views: 3754

Re: Military FIRE; 7 years to go & losing motivation--HELP!

I'm at 12 years, but I'm still 10.5 from retirement. I hear you. Have you looked into commissioning programs? I took that route early on and love my job; the lack of freedom and the amount of uncertainty are what make me want to get out. Once my current obligations are up I've started to look into ...
by Bastiat
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military FIRE; 7 years to go & losing motivation--HELP!
Replies: 36
Views: 3754

Re: Military FIRE; 7 years to go & losing motivation--HELP!

I'm at 12 years, but I'm still 10.5 from retirement. I hear you. Have you looked into commissioning programs? I took that route early on and love my job; the lack of freedom and the amount of uncertainty are what make me want to get out. Once my current obligations are up I've started to look into t...
by Bastiat
Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 152
Views: 11612

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

Future U.S. Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit Posted on January 15, 2018 by philosophicalecon@gmail.com http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2018/01/future-u-s-equity-returns-a-best-case-upper-limit/ I find this article highly fascinating. It confirms a hunch I've had all along that inflated...
by Bastiat
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing
Replies: 23
Views: 5102

Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

What makes you "agree with Mark Cuban about not investing at all unless you have inside information"? Surely not the hundreds of millions of people who have invested profitably despite no inside information. If all you look at is the downside - ignoring the greater upside - of course you are going ...
by Bastiat
Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 14312

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

There absolutely is doubt that WWII ended the Great Depression . Not only is there doubt, there are volumes of research which assert the opposite. If war did increase real economic output, why wait around for a war? We could reinstitute the draft, build new weapons factories and ship yards, and bom...
by Bastiat
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing
Replies: 23
Views: 5102

Re: I still know nothing - 22 years of REALLY lazy investing

I've been reading about different investing theories: Bogleheads, dividend investing, Permanent Portfolio (and variations), market timing (I just know I should get out while I'm ahead...in my thoughts), and finally just started to agree with Mark Cuban about not investing at all unless you have ins...
by Bastiat
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 14312

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

I'd just like to point out that some of what is being presented in this post as fact is in actuality conjecture that is not widely accepted by economists. Specifically: WWII being good for the global economy (broken window fallacy); Public deficit equals private surplus (ignores capital surplus); e...
by Bastiat
Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 14312

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

30 year Treasuries yielded 14.8% in 1981 because bond market participants saw more than a decade of ever increasing interest rates and inflation, currently at about 15% in 1981, and they expected that to continue for decades. That, of course, turned out to be totally wrong in spite of all the smart...
by Bastiat
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6759
Views: 1470628

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

If you bought a 500 fund at the S&P500 peak in 2000, and you had the intention of holding, you wouldn't start making money on it until 2013. Tell me why I should put money in now on an insane looking peak, amidst deregulation, growing income inequality, and growing interest rates... In other words,...
by Bastiat
Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: G Fund Allocation during market correction/recession
Replies: 7
Views: 1315

Re: G Fund Allocation during market correction/recession

I think it's a terrible idea. Market timing doesn't work. It's much easier to "see the writing on the wall" after the fact. If one were able to reliably "see the writing on the wall" market timing would work. It doesn't. Had the gyrations in late 2015 and early 2016 developed into a bad bear market/...
by Bastiat
Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Anybody Else Freaked Out By the Rapidly Escalating Stock Market?
Replies: 40
Views: 4081

Re: Is Anybody Else Freaked Out By the Rapidly Escalating Stock Market?

I am not freaked out by the market.

The rest of your questions are political in nature, but this essay by Dr. Thomas Sowell of Stanford's Hoover Institution may be informative: http://www.tsowell.com/images/Hoover%20Proof.pdf
by Bastiat
Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower tax rates for 7 yrs.-Are you switching to Roth 401K
Replies: 65
Views: 6504

Re: Lower tax rates for 7 yrs.-Are you switching to Roth 401K

I think the recent tax change strengthens the argument for not using a Roth 401k. People continuously say tax rates are going up in the future so use the Roth 401k. Guess what, they just went down. Predicting the future is difficult. Consensus among economists and other math scientists is that futu...
by Bastiat
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent market gains
Replies: 18
Views: 1900

Re: Recent market gains

The question that comes to mind with all the recent very quick market gain is where is the money coming from ? Is this all the stock shunning conservative people suddenly getting bold and shoving money in or is it overseas investors ? People who are already in the market are probably rebalancing OU...
by Bastiat
Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 8408

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

The problem with facile explanations of changes is that they often don't fit the data. International Stocks are up more than US stocks. How does US corporate tax law changes explain that? We'll ignore that the US economy is the largest in the world, conducts a great deal of international business a...
by Bastiat
Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?
Replies: 75
Views: 13046

Re: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?

The only catch I see is that depending on what kind of home improvements you want to do along with the free-standing workshop, $100k likely wont be enough. I'd talk to a contractor (or five) and tell them what exactly you want to do and find out how much that'll cost. You'll likely be surprised. Bet...
by Bastiat
Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 11484

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

So my point was neither PE1 nor PE10 was predictive AND there wasn't much difference between using PE1 vs. PE10 (a surprise to many folks). In all of the ten year periods from 1900-2012, there were 42 where annual returns were 10% or higher. In 93% of those periods, the starting CAPE was below 20. ...
by Bastiat
Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 11484

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

I believe that the CAPE is currently around 33.27; apart from that, what is there to "believe"? The US equity market is going to be disappointing relative to what ? How do you plan on using this information? If one were only to buy when CAPE is below the mean, the only buying window they'd have had...
by Bastiat
Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 11484

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

I believe that the CAPE is currently around 33.27; apart from that, what is there to "believe"? The US equity market is going to be disappointing relative to what ? How do you plan on using this information? If one were only to buy when CAPE is below the mean, the only buying window they'd have had...
by Bastiat
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 211
Views: 21147

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

I guess I don't understand why someone who has "won the game" would be taking a gradualist approach to reducing their equity allocation, especially in the face of the obvious high market valuations. If you don't need to have anything in stocks or need a much lower percentage than you currently have...
by Bastiat
Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 11484

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

I believe that the CAPE is currently around 33.27; apart from that, what is there to "believe"? The US equity market is going to be disappointing relative to what ? How do you plan on using this information? If one were only to buy when CAPE is below the mean, the only buying window they'd have had ...
by Bastiat
Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So how would your $100k have fared since January 2008?
Replies: 8
Views: 1402

Re: So how would your $100k have fared since January 2008?

Mine as well of been 90/10 to be honest. The spread between 90/10 and 50/50 isn't exactly apples to oranges. 18% is quite a bit, I think. Might as well have been 90/10 if you were retiring in 2020; 2010, not so much. Does adding a decimal place make a difference? $1,000,000 Stock %/Bond % 90/10 Mar...
by Bastiat
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Increasing Cashflow to payoff Mortgage or Market Investing?
Replies: 8
Views: 1084

Re: Increasing Cashflow to payoff Mortgage or Market Investing?

I like step 1. I would not, personally, do step 2. It is less financially advantageous than paying off your mortgage, which is likely less advantageous than 401k contributions. I see no reason to draw down your EF to pay off a 2% loan, particularly when you can get close to 2% return on your EF. If ...
by Bastiat
Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual bonds vs rebalancing two bond funds
Replies: 13
Views: 1472

Re: Individual bonds vs rebalancing two bond funds

One major flaw is that you believe you can't lose money in an individual issue... The default rate on a AAA municipal bond is so low that it barely registers. Credit risk is nowhere near the most important risk here. This is not a major flaw. A major flaw would be to think that the main benefit of ...