Search found 758 matches

by Iridium
Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4679420

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

jason2459 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:26 pm Seems like a good buying opportunity to me. If Evergrand fails there will be even better opportunities it seems.
What would be the mechanism that triggers a big sell off if Evergrand fails? Even if Chinese consumers pull back, would that be enough? I don't think most companies have much exposure to Chinese real estate, so the contagion would seem to be mostly limited to China.
by Iridium
Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can anyone explain what "reverse repo" is?
Replies: 21
Views: 3845

Re: Can anyone explain what "reverse repo" is?

456M wrote: Sat Aug 28, 2021 5:24 am The 0.05% interest on the reverse repo, is that daily? How many times per year do they go back and forth with the Fed on this?
That is an annualized figure. My impression is that the term of the contract is a day, but I haven't seen anything definitive on that.
by Iridium
Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can anyone explain what "reverse repo" is?
Replies: 21
Views: 3845

Re: Can anyone explain what "reverse repo" is?

One interesting wrinkle on this: the Fed is currently buying treasuries and the like at a rate of $120B/month (quantitative easing). In other words, it is giving the market cash in return for treasuries. In a reverse repo, the Fed borrows cash in return for lending treasuries. They are inverse operations (though with a different term, the QE transaction is 'permanent' whereas, in the reverse repo both parties decide whether to continue or reverse the transaction (I believe in a daily basis)). To me, this indicates that the Fed's current QE program is ineffective at continuing to further ease monetary policy, as the cash being injected is just getting lent back to the Fed. As a corollary, I would expect if the Fed was to change its QE progra...
by Iridium
Tue Aug 24, 2021 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's up with inflation?
Replies: 31
Views: 5616

Re: What's up with inflation?

billyblaze wrote: Tue Aug 24, 2021 3:58 pm Basically all the math here assumes 2% is the number now and forever. But now it's 5%. What should I do about that?

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate
There really isn't anything that you can do about past inflation. Market is still betting that future inflation will be around 2.5% in medium term: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE/
by Iridium
Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ACATS security risks?
Replies: 21
Views: 2454

Re: ACATS security risks?

Orangutan wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:19 pm This would allow someone to transfer the entirety of the assets held at the prior brokerage.
They can move the assets to a new brokerage account IN YOUR NAME. If they want to switch the name on the account, that requires a Medallion signature.

The higher risk seems to be that after the shares are turned into cash, the various mechanisms for transferring cash around don't seem to verify the ownership of the account receiving the funds. However, that is a problem somewhat different from ACATS itself. Generally, that seems to be resolved through a combination of reversibility, money holds, transfer limits, and verification of who is actually opening accounts.
by Iridium
Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does growing up lavishly increase the speed of the hedonic treadmill?
Replies: 3
Views: 1175

Re: Does growing up lavishly increase the speed of the hedonic treadmill?

I am fairly certain that it is quite complicated. My family spent a fair amount as I was growing up (not sure it would quite count as lavish) but my sister and I spend well within our means. Maybe there is a certain "getting used to" effect, but I believe that three attitudes passed on were more important: 1) Confidence. The stupidest spending mostly comes when you want other people to think you are successful. The less you need the approval of strangers, and see through how shallow it is to have approval that you can get by buying stuff, the better. 2) Tradeoffs. There are finite resources and you have to make a decision how you want to use them. My mother pointed out to me at a fairly young age that money comes from spending you...
by Iridium
Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Transitory or temporary inflation is a ridiculous concept.
Replies: 14
Views: 1823

Re: Transitory or temporary inflation is a ridiculous concept.

The question of transitory inflation comes up in the context of fiscal and monetary policy. Those levers of the economy have a lag before they kick in. If raising rates would help quell inflation in 5 months, but we expect inflation to drop back down to around 2% on its own in 3 months, there really isn't much that the Fed can do other than telling people to hold on for the ride. On the flip side, if inflation RATES remain elevated in 6 months, we can say pretty definitively that the Fed erred in not tightening monetary policy at their most recent meeting. The Fed cannot do anything about past inflation and conventional macroeconomic theory states that lowering prices is a really bad thing. They could try to keep a tighter lid on inflation ...
by Iridium
Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:30 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Juneteenth
Replies: 22
Views: 3659

Re: Juneteenth

mptfan wrote: Sat Jun 19, 2021 1:39 pm How is this actionable?
If you flip the holiday on its head, it is also a story of the dangers of being overly concentrated in a single asset: the value of the 'slave asset class' went to zero.

While it is unlikely that such a dramatic proclamation will happen in the future, there are plenty of industries today which have drawn large, politically active, detractors who find the activities/assets of those companies to be immoral. Concentrating on just a few companies/single industry exposes you to political risk that can be minimized with a diversified portfolio.
by Iridium
Thu Jun 17, 2021 1:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you have a "survival" retirement number?
Replies: 94
Views: 12852

Re: Do you have a "survival" retirement number?

I'd assume that I could "survive" on social security alone, just like many (most?) Americans.

In terms of intermediate milestones, I have computed how much money it would take to "glide" to my number (no contributions or withdrawals until retirement age) at various real rates of return. Maybe kind-of bizarre and it requires recomputation every year, but it is cool to see my retirement goals become gradually more realistic, and then eventually will become conservative.
by Iridium
Wed May 26, 2021 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Turn down promotion?
Replies: 50
Views: 6713

Re: Turn down promotion?

In a healthy corporate culture, you should be able to express these concerns to your manager, and either work to figure out what resources you need to feel comfortable taking the position (possibly some of the administrative tasks can be delegated out) or determining that this move isn't the right one for you, without impacting future opportunities that are more in line with your goals.

None of us know whether you work in a healthy corporate culture.
by Iridium
Mon May 10, 2021 12:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: California Homebuying Insanity
Replies: 243
Views: 28058

Re: California Homebuying Insanity

We have the same insanity with house prices here in the suburbs of Denver. Dave Dave - We are in northeast (you know where we are). Home prices INSANE with mass exodus from New York New Jersey. Tony A few days ago a news article from ABC News but also reported elsewhere: California leaving: State population declines for first time California's population declined in 2020 for the first time since state officials have been measuring it California’s population fell by more than 182,000 last year, the first yearly loss ever recorded for the nation’s most populous state that halted a growth streak dating to its founding in 1850 on the heels of a gold rush that prompted a flood of people to seek their fortune in the West. This is a driver in the...
by Iridium
Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Books / Videos / Resources that teach the basics of computer science in a simple, easy to understand, manner?
Replies: 5
Views: 582

Re: Books / Videos / Resources that teach the basics of computer science in a simple, easy to understand, manner?

Zillions wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:21 pm what is a network, how do computers on a network talk to each other, how do computers not on a shared network (such as on Internet forums like this on) talk to each other
It is a bit outdated now, but the video Warriors of the Net is a fun introduction to the concept of packets, addressing, and data getting routed.
Zillions wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:21 pm Also, I'd love recs for books or resources that teach coding in a simple, easy to understand manner? It does not have to teach a particular language such as C++ or Python, but it should teach things like data structures, how to write algorithms, why are these things important etc?
Hour of code would likely be a good start to at least understand how instructions, variables, and loops work.
by Iridium
Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does USPS allow mailing laptop internationally ?
Replies: 12
Views: 3211

Re: Does USPS allow mailing laptop internationally ?

Per this page, small Li-ion batteries installed in equipment is allowed as long as it meets certain requirements: https://pe.usps.com/text/pub52/pub52c6_004.htm#ep260739

That being said, it is probably best to tell the clerk that you are shipping a laptop and confirm what needs to be done.
by Iridium
Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage recasting: Can it save money ?
Replies: 25
Views: 3807

Re: Mortgage recasting: Can it save money ?

jack22 wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 10:59 pm Thanks all of you .. I understand from you that this is a temporary
Relief and not a win long term ..I should continue to
Pay my current payments nevertheless...

Thanks for the guidance
Sort-of. The principal payment is a long term win. The recast itself is just a way to enjoy part of that long term win immediately (and in so doing cancels out some, but not all of the win).

The thing to keep in mind is that the interest you pay is always: loan amount * interest rate. So, any time you reduce the loan amount, it is a win.
by Iridium
Thu Mar 25, 2021 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Digital persona - curating your online presence
Replies: 28
Views: 2528

Re: Digital persona - curating your online presence

I think it is more about creating content and linking everything together. When I have been part of interview panels, if they included a link to their Github on their resume, I will occasionally take a look to get more details about the type of projects they have worked on in the past. I have heard that people who have started blogs have occasionally gotten good traction. Of course, once you have a blog, you can feed articles from it into Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn. I am not sure that managing Google search results is going to be particularly useful. I have never Googled anyone I have interviewed or work with unless I am aware of a blog it something that I am looking for. Does anyone consider Googleing names to not to be a total waste ...
by Iridium
Sun Mar 21, 2021 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gaming Sector
Replies: 16
Views: 1767

Re: Gaming Sector

Just to spitball a contrary view: I think the big publicly traded game publishers are way off on the wrong track. 1) Live services/micro-transactions model: Sure, you can make a TON of money if it works. However, the business model pretty much depends on consumers spending most of their gaming time with one game. This results in a winner take all market. We already saw this play out in the MMORPG days: only Ultima and EverQuest (and maybe Eve) really broke out to print money, despite innumerable other attempts (even Myst got an MMORPG attempt in those days!). So, good for you if you predict the next company that launches the next Fortnight. But you are far more likely to pick the next company that launches the next Marvel Avengers. BTW, thi...
by Iridium
Sat Mar 13, 2021 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in a housing bubble?
Replies: 687
Views: 181091

Re: Are we in a housing bubble?

SuperTrooper87 wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 4:21 am This seems eerily reminiscent of 2008. People taking loans to the max, no equity in homes, no EF, etc.
This market has one huge difference: the buyers are valuing the homes for their housing, not for their appreciation potential. Sellers aren't going to feel the need to dump their property and buyers aren't going to suddenly disappear if prices go down a bit. In some way, 2008 was about a massive change in expectation of housing prices, whereas I think even the buyers feel like the current trend isn't sustainable. The big question is what is going to happen to perceived housing quality: will people suddenly start to prefer coastal cities and urban living again? Or has there been a permanent shift in housing preference?
by Iridium
Wed Mar 10, 2021 12:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should umbrella insurance amount be based on assets?
Replies: 51
Views: 4500

Re: Should umbrella insurance amount be based on assets?

Yes. As long as the defendant wasn't drunk driving or a very small number of other scenarios where civil liability isn't dischargeable in many states. Note also that if you earn more than median income, you'll likely have to go through Chapter 13, which means you contribute 5 years of disposable income rather than exposed assets (unless the exposed assets are larger than 5 years of disposable income, in which case, I think you have to top up your 5 years of disposable income such that it matches the exposed assets you had at the beginning of the bankruptcy; I might have the details off a bit). No, you wouldn't have to go through Chapter 13. You could go Chapter 7. The means test applies to consumer debts. I stand very much corrected. I had...
by Iridium
Wed Mar 10, 2021 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?
Replies: 85
Views: 10317

Re: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?

Most of Microsoft and Amazon's market cap come from expectations of massive growth in their cloud business. I always thought this was odd because cloud is all about not worrying about the underlying hardware/infrastructure. AWS, Azure, Bob's House of Kubernetes Nodes, it doesn't matter. So, once the market matures a bit, why does anyone expect there to be much in the way of profit? The customers appear to have all the power to play vendors off each other to get the best possible price. Is there an example of any other B2B commodified industry that is highly profitable? It's not so easy to move between cloud vendors right now . Even if you use Docker containers, Kubernetes etc. There is difference in platforms. So there is significant lock ...
by Iridium
Tue Mar 09, 2021 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should umbrella insurance amount be based on assets?
Replies: 51
Views: 4500

Re: Should umbrella insurance amount be based on assets?

Covering the lawyer has got to be the most overrated benefit of the umbrella. Well this is a contrarian position! I've considered it the most underrated benefit. :happy It certainly is! I am happy to hear counter-arguments. Technically no. If the plaintiff obtains a judgment for over $7 million, then he/she/it may continue to attempt to collect into the future until its judgment, plus interest, is satisfied. Isn't this when the defendant would declare bankruptcy, to relieve the damages but retain the protected assets? Yes. As long as the defendant wasn't drunk driving or a very small number of other scenarios where civil liability isn't dischargeable in many states. Note also that if you earn more than median income, you'll likely have to ...
by Iridium
Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?
Replies: 85
Views: 10317

Re: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?

Most of Microsoft and Amazon's market cap come from expectations of massive growth in their cloud business. I always thought this was odd because cloud is all about not worrying about the underlying hardware/infrastructure. AWS, Azure, Bob's House of Kubernetes Nodes, it doesn't matter. So, once the market matures a bit, why does anyone expect there to be much in the way of profit? The customers appear to have all the power to play vendors off each other to get the best possible price. Is there an example of any other B2B commodified industry that is highly profitable?
by Iridium
Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should umbrella insurance amount be based on assets?
Replies: 51
Views: 4500

Re: Should umbrella insurance amount be based on assets?

The main argument in favor seems to be: Litigators tend to cap suits at the amount of your non-judgement-proof assets, recognizing they can't get blood from a stone. The main argument against seems to be: Litigators will cap suits at the amount of your non-judgement-proof assets PLUS your coverage. In which case, you're back where you would have been without the insurance. EXCEPT the main benefit of the insurance, which is really the insurance co's attorneys. So, you might as well get the least coverage that motivates that defense. I think the latter argument would suggest getting, say, 1m in coverage even if you have more than 1m in non-judgement-proof assets. Is that wise? It isn't about capping the suit, it is about what settlement offe...
by Iridium
Mon Mar 01, 2021 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Homeowners Insurer witholding claim payment till work invoiced?
Replies: 2
Views: 498

Re: Homeowners Insurer witholding claim payment till work invoiced?

I can't speak to what is going on with the iterative process, but the final requirement for receipts for the last tranche of money makes sense. Losses have two different values associated with them: Actual Cash Value (ACV) and replacement cost. The difference is depreciation. A 30 year olds roof is obviously not worth as much as a new one because the roof was going to need to be replaced soon ish anyway. However, if you lose that roof, you obviously aren't going to replace it with another 30 year old roof. So, the ACV of the roof is going to be pretty small, while replacement value is for a new roof. If you don't actually replace the item in question, then you haven't actually lost its replacement value, you have only lost its ACV. Therefor...
by Iridium
Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: too much in 401k may be forced to quit job
Replies: 183
Views: 20634

Re: too much in 401k may be forced to quit job

someone in administration at my place of employment spilled the beans about my 401k balance, newly appointed president of company angrily informed me, that my balance was highest in plan, way higher than all other participants. This situation is creating a lot of conflict with fellow employees, everyone is asking why I just don't retire. Have multiple job offers monthly(highly skilled labor) but really don't want to resign from place I have worked for 20 plus years. Anyone else here been in similar situation, am hoping this situation will die down with more time. I have not been in a similar situation. Without more details about the objection that people have, it is unclear why they are objecting to your 401k balance. If the issue is just ...
by Iridium
Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: To buy or not to buy points on purchase mortgage (2.5% vs. 1.875% fixed rate on 30 year)
Replies: 23
Views: 3551

Re: To buy or not to buy points on purchase mortgage (2.5% vs. 1.875% fixed rate on 30 year)

Math is pretty simple: About $6100 for 1.875% and $6600 2.5% or $500 difference 84 month payback (41,750/500) or about 7 years. If you are staying in it for 10 years, then you'll come out ahead It is actually better than that, because it looks like you are comparing the payment. However, a higher interest rate loan will push more of the principal payment on the backend (consider that a 0% amortizing loan had equal principal payments, to get the intuition). The breakeven point for the actual cost of the loan is under 4 years. It is always a gamble on whether interest rates will fall our whether you move out. However, given the short breakeven point, it seems like a reasonably good bet. It isn't going to break your finances, either way.
by Iridium
Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sent to Collections by Sprint but the Debt isn't Mine
Replies: 33
Views: 7037

Re: Sent to Collections by Sprint but the Debt isn't Mine

The system really is messed up. The "evidence" in this case is the original Sprint contract, and not a single thing on it matches my personal info. Despite that my credit has been wrecked and now it's up to me to prove otherwise. Somehow Experian decided that everything looked valid. Tomorrow I think I'll call back Allied Collections and try to explain the situation further. It's just I'm reluctant to talk to them, thinking I may slip and say something wrong that makes it harder for me to fight this. I've read that it's not a good idea give them any of my personal info / correct the wrong info that they have. I've been building my credit diligently for 10+ years and of course this happens right before I want to buy my first house...
by Iridium
Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Give electric wheelchair to veteran---liability
Replies: 39
Views: 3941

Re: Give electric wheelchair to veteran---liability

Some years ago, because my blood sugars were under good control, I no longer needed to inject insulin. Insulin is very expensive, and there were news reports at the time about people skipping doses because of the expense. I asked my doctor how to donate my substantial remaining doses. She told me not to do it for liability reasons. I asked an attorney acquaintance, same opinion. So, I figured I’d donate it to an animal rescue (older dogs and cats often need insulin injections). They wouldn’t accept the donation. I gave up. Insulin is harder to determine quality than a wheel chair. How do I know that you did not leave it out? Is it expired? etc etc The risks likewise of over or under dosing are likewise higher with resultant morbidity and m...
by Iridium
Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is AMD getting involved in the GME war?
Replies: 17
Views: 1893

Re: Is AMD getting involved in the GME war?

Why is this happening (see links below)? https://hothardware.com/news/amd-robinhood-gamestop-gme-shorts-wallstreetbets https://newofgames.com/2021/01/31/amd-seemingly-caught-in-wallstreetbets-drama-as-shady-robinhood-dares-to-restrict-buying-and-selling/ I am a little fuzzy on the details, but the reason has to do with the fact that stock transactions take a couple days to actually settle. Until that happens, Robinhood has to put up collateral at the clearing firm, with more volatile stocks requiring more collateral. Robinhood is quite small relative to the trading volume they do, so with all the action on GME, they have essentially 'run out' of collateral. In fact, they had to raise an additional billion dollars of equity on short notice,...
by Iridium
Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens if my shares are "loaned" to an entity that goes bankrupt?
Replies: 12
Views: 1411

Re: What happens if my shares are "loaned" to an entity that goes bankrupt?

Generally, when shares are lent, the borrower has to put up cash collateral worth 100-102% of the borrowed shares (updated nightly). Your shares are never considered to be collateral. If the borrower goes belly up, worst case is that you would lose 1 day's worth of gains. At least that is how it works when mutual funds do it. For retail, I wonder if your broker would ultimately be on the hook.
by Iridium
Sat Dec 26, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stop / Limit / Stop Limit
Replies: 10
Views: 937

Re: Stop / Limit / Stop Limit

What you are looking for is a stop limit order. Use a stop price of $30 and a limit price of $20. Note that in a flash crash situation, what would happen is that the transaction below $30 would trigger the limit order of $20. If the crash happened to go below $20, your order would sit on the order book, until the recovery, at which point it would execute at exactly $20. Given that this is a single company, flash crashes are not the only concern. In the event of bad news coming in after hours, it wouldn't be too atypical for the stock to open far lower, and then recover as the market digested the news. Sometimes, if there is a significant and fast market crash, the stop limits don’t execute. Yeah, I'm not following this. If it's a stop loss ...
by Iridium
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Go from 12% to 22% federal income tax rate to pay off mortgage?
Replies: 23
Views: 2247

Re: Go from 12% to 22% federal income tax rate to pay off mortgage?

A few things to keep in mind: 1. Current law is that the tax structure will revert in 2025 to what it was a couple of years ago. The odds of congress extending the current tax rates when they are about to expire is a banned topic on this forum. Hypothetically, forum rules tell us we are supposed to give advice based current law, which would put you in the 15% tax bracket, I suspect. 2. Definitely double-check how much money you will have in tax deferred accounts and see how much RMDs they will throw off by the time you are in your 80s. Your tax bracket assumption seems aggressive, though that might be because you are planning on retiring early? 3. You are paying 3% / year of interest on principal, whereas your assumption is that you will ha...
by Iridium
Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Office Deduction
Replies: 4
Views: 819

Re: Home Office Deduction

TLDR: Would we be missing something major by not claiming home office deduction? No. First of all, unless you are paid via 1099 instead of a W2, then the home office deduction essentially doesn't apply to you. Even in you were a 1099 contractor, the rules on a home office are so strict that you pretty much can't be forced to take it. If you do anything personal/for fun in there, then it no longer counts as a home office. So, browse Bogleheads in there a couple times per year, and you can easily disqualify the space as a home office. If one of you is a 1099 contractor, then it might be worth considering trying to qualify for home office. I think the simplified deduction method is still allowed. If you elect it, you would be able to take $5/...
by Iridium
Fri Dec 11, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Standing desk ....
Replies: 34
Views: 3227

Re: Standing desk ....

bluesky50 wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 12:29 pm
stan1 wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 10:34 am Uplift with the extra horizontal brace and C-shaped legs (unless I was on a tight budget).
I believe that is Uplift Commercial version. That is the one I have. One additional benefit of that horizontal bar that I found after I bought is I can use it as leg rest from time to time while sitting.
I just got that desk (have to wait until I can get help to get it setup)! Went with it because I hate keyboard trays but I have weird body proportions, so need the desktop to be 25 inches off the ground when sitting. They were the only desk I found that got that low (I also got monitor arms, so the rest of the setup can be adjusted to be ergonomic with the unusually low desk height).
by Iridium
Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: USPS Lost Paper Bank Statement - Should I Worry?
Replies: 21
Views: 4756

Re: USPS Lost Paper Bank Statement - Should I Worry?

I don't see much reason to worry about it. Just knowing that the statement hasn't been delivered doesn't mean a criminal has it. If it was misdelivered, 99% of people will either put it back into their mailbox or toss it. If it just got lost behind the machinery at USPS, then it obviously isn't in a criminal's hands. Even if a criminal has it, and even if your bank statements still have your account number on it, the statements still won't have any passwords, PINs, or other codes used to authenticate you. I mean, every check you write has your account number and, often, your name and address on it, so it is not as if anyone is going to pretend that only you could possibly know that info.
by Iridium
Tue Dec 01, 2020 3:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla leaving Extended for S&P500.
Replies: 37
Views: 5267

Re: Tesla leaving Extended for S&P500.

TropikThunder wrote: How can the extended market index (VEXAX in Vanguard’s case) not drop once Tesla leaves? Tesla is almost 5% of the fund and that will go to zero when it moves to the S&P500. VEXAX sells for $116.92 per share now based in part on the fact it has a lot of Tesla. Soon, it will have none.
Because the money that extended market fund will make selling Tesla will be reinvested in companies remaining in the extended market index. While it won't have Tesla anymore, it will have a bit more of 4000+ different companies, in value roughly equal to the Tesla stock it is giving up.
by Iridium
Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Received Debit Card from Credit Union We Don't Use
Replies: 48
Views: 3720

Re: Received Debit Card from Credit Union We Don't Use

Stinky wrote: Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:00 pm Kinda makes you wonder if you want to continue to do business with a firm that is so small and under-resourced....

If it were me, I would take my business elsewhere. What if a “real” fraud happened?
OP never chose to do business with that credit union, and odds are very high that this is real fraud (though OP is not necessarily the intended victim).

Who would have thought that fraudster's preferred financial institutions could be so disorganized and slow to respond to fraud?
by Iridium
Fri Nov 13, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often do you check up on your investments?
Replies: 81
Views: 9037

Re: How often do you check up on your investments?

1) How often do you all look up the values of the indices that your investments track? Several times a year. Sometimes I get in runs where I check more than once a week. Other times I don't check at all. Right now, I think it has been about 2 months since I have checked. 2) (For those that successfully ignore this noise) Any pointers on how to ignore all this noise? To start with: by not coming into contact with the noise. Try reading articles about your industry in places like Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha, and the like. It becomes so painfully obvious that most of the contributors on there are focused on the numbers and maybe the one thing Wall Street is obsessed with, but actually have no idea how to evaluate the big picture of the industr...
by Iridium
Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Walmart delivery within a couple of hours?
Replies: 7
Views: 1389

Re: Walmart delivery within a couple of hours?

That is a bit odd. Walmart has an online grocery side that is separate from their online store side (which they are slowly merging together because the seperation makes no sense). The way their grocery side works is pretty close to how you describe, with employees grabbing items off the shelf and then getting delivered within hours. However, there is supposed to be a charge for delivery (curbside pickup is free, and is how I now get the vast majority of my groceries) and you are supposed to pick a delivery time slot, whereas it sounds like they just dumped your order off when they got around to it. My interpretation is that you your order was sent to a store for a 'ship from store' fulfillment, which then morphed into an online grocery deli...
by Iridium
Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Depressed About Money
Replies: 30
Views: 3973

Re: Depressed About Money

How do we feel less depressed? Should we just get new friends that are less successful? I think you first need to figure out what is causing the depression. You acknowledge that you have everything you need, and if your heart yearned for a newer car, you could have one easily and not have it change your financial situation. Admittedly the larger house might be a bigger lift in the Bay Area. But overall, lack of finances isn't the actual cause of your depression. So, you need to get to the bottom of that. One thing to keep in mind is that you are about in the right age for what is improperly called the quarter life crisis. I suspect that I am in essentially the same industry as you and have a third of your household income. What helps me wh...
by Iridium
Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Feature update to Windows 10, version 2004 downloaded!
Replies: 17
Views: 1944

Re: Feature update to Windows 10, version 2004 downloaded!

Currently on 1909, with no action on my part the feature update to 2004 downloaded yesterday and is pushing for installation. I thought this was optional (user controlled) until 1909 goes off support next May? Updates aren't optional up until end of life, unless you have an enterprise type environment. You will be auto/force upgraded a few months before the official EOL date if you are in a home type environment. However, 6 months out is a tad longer than I would have expected. Microsoft must be really confident that your computer is ready for 2004. At this point is there any way to delay the update for a few months while MS addresses issues? Probably not, now that it is downloaded. You might be able to revert after the install. That being...
by Iridium
Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stacker ETF's: 3x upside/1x downside via options
Replies: 41
Views: 3626

Re: Stacker ETF's: 3x upside/1x downside via options

UpsetRaptor wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:15 pm However, suppose 2.5 months into Year 2 you see that SPY+QQQ+IWM is up against the 20% cap, can you not just sell it then? I mean, it's an ETF and the underlying holdings are just options of major indexes. Many of you are smarter than me, please explain what I'm missing.
Closing the sold options will be expensive in that case which will take away some of the profit on the purchased options. In other words: the ETF still never trade up 20% until at the end of the period. The downside risk will weigh on the price until there isn't enough time left for it to matter.
by Iridium
Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stacker ETF's: 3x upside/1x downside via options
Replies: 41
Views: 3626

Re: Stacker ETF's: 3x upside/1x downside via options

Wouldn’t you take a potentially painful hit by not fully participating in the recovery after a market drop? Sure you’ll only lose the same x% as the underlying falls by, but let’s say it leaps back up again the next day as they so often do - you will be capped out of that. You may still come out ahead but not as far ahead as using a “simple” 2x or 3x product. Haven’t run any actual numbers, just my first thought. Definitely a clever product, I’m sure it will attract some attention and money even if it’s not deserving of it. You would be screwed if the down day was Sept 30 and the up day was Oct 1. Otherwise, it probably doesn't matter. On an unrelated note, can anyone explain the SPY call @ $2.69? It seems rather pointless. It is going to ...
by Iridium
Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New opportunity in Austin vs current employer in california
Replies: 36
Views: 3288

Re: New opportunity in Austin vs current employer in california

If the NorCal non-HCOL urban place you are living in now is Sacramento then I really don't think Austin weather is anything you won't be able to handle. When people talk about the great weather in California, they typically mean the coasts. Central Valley gets hot as heck and Death Valley is frequently one of the hottest places in the US. You should probably consider selling off your rentals rather than keeping them; being an out of state landlord will likely not be fun and the money you might make off the rentals will be trivial next to your new financial position. The only possible reason to hold on is if you happened to be in the Bay Area and wanted to ensure you could always afford to move back. In your circumstances though, you could l...
by Iridium
Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Abandoning Ship, Developing ‘New Brand Image’ has removed its ship logo from corporate docum
Replies: 107
Views: 12173

Re: Vanguard Abandoning Ship, Developing ‘New Brand Image’ has removed its ship logo from corporate docum

Management enthusiasm to rebrand has always baffled me. The most iconic brands come from decades of building awareness, but so many companies start over every 20 years or so.

The rumored reasoning of trying to distance themselves from Mr. Bogle is even more bizarre than the typical reasoning. While a change in management sometimes requires symbolic gestures to note the change to internal stakeholders, if the old management had a good reputation and the business strategy and market positioning remains the same, generally the company's main goal should be create as much continuity for external customers as possible.
by Iridium
Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Zero funds vs Vanguard performance
Replies: 70
Views: 12008

Re: Fidelity Zero funds vs Vanguard performance

Folks need to keep in mind the scale of the loss we are talking about with this loss leader. The fund has $6B under management. If it charged 1.5 basis points, like its sister fund, Fidelity would collect all of $900K. It is difficult to overstate what an insignificant amount of money this is to Fidelity. Its 50,000 employees drink more than that in coffee. Heck, even the fees rolling in on FSKAX, <$10 million, is roughly a rounding error to the multi-billion dollar operation that is Fidelity. As best I can tell, Fidelity's entire indexing operation is a gimmick. If the entire division turned a big enough profit to pay the electric bills of their 140 branches, I would be shocked. If I was a betting man, I would actually put my money on Fid...
by Iridium
Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Zero funds vs Vanguard performance
Replies: 70
Views: 12008

Re: Fidelity Zero funds vs Vanguard performance

Folks need to keep in mind the scale of the loss we are talking about with this loss leader. The fund has $6B under management. If it charged 1.5 basis points, like its sister fund, Fidelity would collect all of $900K. It is difficult to overstate what an insignificant amount of money this is to Fidelity. Its 50,000 employees drink more than that in coffee. Heck, even the fees rolling in on FSKAX, <$10 million, is roughly a rounding error to the multi-billion dollar operation that is Fidelity. As best I can tell, Fidelity's entire indexing operation is a gimmick. If the entire division turned a big enough profit to pay the electric bills of their 140 branches, I would be shocked. If I was a betting man, I would actually put my money on Fide...
by Iridium
Wed Sep 30, 2020 12:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 218
Views: 27776

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Is there an easy way to tell how much of the US's outperformance is due to it being overweight in 'tech' (never loved the term, as it seems to imply that all of the technology in factories, consumer goods, pharma, and essentially every other non-software industry is not real technology)? My intuition is that a few 'tech' companies went from big to giant to monstrosities, and that has dragged up US performance quite a bit. While, of course, the tech industry is homegrown in the US and is a credit to our economy and market, I do think that a lot of the conversations and folk theories surrounding international performance takes on a completely different color if the non-tech US and non-tech ex-US actually performed similarly.
by Iridium
Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?
Replies: 66
Views: 6697

Re: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?

What do I think of Japan? While they certainly have had problems, it is somewhat exaggerated. Their valuations ran up a crazy amount in a very short time. You were totally screwed on the money you invested at the top. However, money invested a year or two before the top got into the black a reasonable time after the pop. So, it would have been painful to have seen yourself blow past your number, only to have to wait decades to get back to the same place, but a hole wasn't necessarily blown in your your plan, as long as you were disciplined about maintaining your asset allocation. Another thing to keep in mind is that in the presence of long term deflation, one needs less in order to retire. True market could be totally flat, but that is sti...
by Iridium
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kids back to On Campus School - Would you ?
Replies: 46
Views: 2826

Re: Kids back to On Campus School - Would you ?

CDC says infection rate in kids is very low Don't think the reporting is that the infection rate is that low (it is lower, but not astoundingly lower). Rather, the rate of bad outcomes is extraordinarily low. To put a reference on it, consider the following: thus far, California has had 3 pediatric deaths due to COVID, whereas there were 15 pediatric deaths due to flu in 2018-19 season (the most recent season an annual report was available). I wouldn't get too hung up thinking about risk to your kids in your decision making, as the risk is too small to be worth mentioning (in the sense that the risk is similar to or less than risks such as from flu or car accidents, which we accept as an everyday risk of attending school). You need to focu...
by Iridium
Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: codakids for coding lessons
Replies: 22
Views: 1883

Re: codakids for coding lessons

FIRST Robotics completions/clubs/groups are pretty common in our area, though they are more geared to teenagers. https://www.firstinspires.org/robotics/frc I had peers that did that and greatly enjoyed it and learned a lot, I think one even got a scholarship from it. FIRST Robotics runs Lego League for late Elementary to Middle School students. It also runs First Tech Challenge, which is for Middle and High School students. The overlap between the program ages is intentional, as they give different sorts of experiences. There is also Vex Robotics Competition, which, in terms of experience, is most similar to First Tech Challenge. Introducing kids to programming nowadays is surprisingly difficult. I tried with my kid, and never found anythi...