Bogleheads.org

AnalogKid22

Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL) - A retired friend who day-trades as a hobby tipped me off to this in Summer 2014, when oil stocks were plummeting, due to fracking and over-supply. The stock was 225 a few months earlier and I got in at 175. It kept dropping and every week he kept telling me to buy, ...

AnalogKid22

There are too many investors in the market now who haven't experienced a true bear. I was speaking to one of them a couple of weeks ago who complained because his returns for the past year were less than 2%. He has no idea. Lots of new investors have entered the market during the bull, so all they'...

AnalogKid22

Christmas came early this year, folks. Hopefully, we will see another 10% discount before the end of the year. A recession would not hurt either. Yet another statement that an economic downturn is simply an opportunity to buy stocks on sale without any potential impact on one's employment status. A...

AnalogKid22

100% stock is great for some, I am simply not willing to risk a prolonged 50% decline in my life's savings. At least once in the past: stocks have dropped over 20% in a single day, and have dropped about 90% in a few years. Glad to leave some money on the table, or work a bit longer, in exchange fo...

AnalogKid22

Thanks for this! A very timely post for me.

AnalogKid22

willthrill81 wrote: ↑
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:05 pm
Bogle's animal spirits are still at work methinks. The indicators still do not point to an immediate recession on the horizon.

Agree. With the unemployment rate still at an all-time low, businesses clearly have money to spend and are very much spending.

AnalogKid22

DOW is back below 25,000. Lots of major companies reporting quarterly earnings this week, so expect dramatic swings. Notable companies reporting earnings include McDonald’s (MCD), 3M (MMM), Caterpillar (CAT), Verizon (VZ), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Harley-Davidson (HOG) on Tuesday; Microsoft (MSFT)...

AnalogKid22

Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are reporting earnings this week: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-e ... 54889.html

AnalogKid22

Another big drop incoming it seems! I kinda wanna take out money from my EF and buy more VTSAX today... I am a new investor (only since last October) and don't know if this is wise... If you don't know if it's wise, it probably isn't. Exactly. No one on this board can predict the market or tell you...

AnalogKid22

watchnerd wrote: ↑
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:10 pm
So bummed at these gains

Almost half of which have been erased today.

AnalogKid22

Couldn't agree more, but not easy to do.

AnalogKid22

Funny, my answer would be EVERYONE. Young investors as any prolonged bear marked in stocks will lead to layoffs. The most overconfident aspect I have seen from even folks on this site is their confidence of not getting fired when the next downturn occurs. Retirees if timing is poor the sequence of ...

AnalogKid22

Have to wonder what is driving this chaos. We haven't seen similar market drops during previous rate hikes, so I'm loathe to attribute it to that. TSLA's glacially-paced implosion is meaningless because the company isn't large enough to drive a drop of this size. Something something animal spirits,...

AnalogKid22

WhiteMaxima wrote: ↑
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:47 pm
remember most 10% correction or 20% more crash won't be completed in one day. So a 3% drop might be the prelude of big market correction. The stock won'r always go up, it can go down a lot. If you invest too aggressive, you need to turn down a bit.

DCAing within my DCAing...

AnalogKid22

tony_roach wrote: ↑
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:35 pm
Good reason for me to add a couple of thousand at closing today into my taxable total market ETF.

I did the same. Watch it drop more tomorrow...

AnalogKid22

Same thing happened last January...

AnalogKid22

REITs look so undervalued and then you read things like this... But that is always the story of value investing. It is easy to look back and go man that company was so undervalued 10 years ago. They had more cash than the company value for heaven's sake (or any of a zillion other rationalizations)....

AnalogKid22

The Sears stock has dropped >30% to under 40 cents! Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

AnalogKid22

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this is only a short-lived drop and not the beginnings of a bear market. Unemployment is trending downward and interest rates are not inverted yet. I certainly don't buy the argument that this is due to yields going up because yields are virtually unchange...

AnalogKid22

Yes. They've been calling for a market crash during the entire bull run - that's how they sell advertising space.

AnalogKid22

I consider my Roth my emergency fund, though I do have plenty of cash in a savings account as well. The Roth is 100% invested in equities and large enough that during a huge correction it will still contain enough cash for regular (tax-free) withdrawals if I needed.

AnalogKid22

Toys R Us, now Sears. There will be many more. The Sears near me took up two floors in the town mall and is now only a single floor with maybe 1/3 the merchandise.

AnalogKid22

JL Collins also doesn't hold specific international equities: https://jlcollinsnh.com/2018/09/25/what ... n-it-2018/

AnalogKid22

Well, the DOW has been soaring this week, but the S&P 500, which I assume most Boglehead's track, is only eeking upwards. All this media noise around tariffs has appeared to be the primary influencer. Apparently, tariff concerns have eased up this week, increasing investor confidence, but, no one kn...

AnalogKid22

I think fear mongering implies some sort of outcome that benefits the mongerer. For instance when Peter Schiff gets on the radio and predicts all sorts of meltdowns only gold can buttress against and then mentions Schiff gold. This just seems like someone that is pessimistic about the trajectory of...

AnalogKid22

When the threads pop up about 100% stocks, it tells me that lots of folks have already forgotten the pain of the 2000-2002 and the 2008-2009 bear markets. Could be that the veterans remember this and that maybe these threads are from newer investors and newer forum members. It would be interesting ...

AnalogKid22

Of course "nobody knows nothin," but this article from last week claims, with some metrics, that the market is far from overvalued: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4200910-stock-market-overvalued-bear-market-nowhere-close While this article from two days ago says the market is "slightly overvalued"...

AnalogKid22

The real problem was that low cost index fund investing is B-O-R-I-N-G, so we all set aside a small amount of "fun money" and would talk about what to do with that, have little competitions in who could get the best returns, shared stories, and talked about financial news. So true. Index funds are ...

AnalogKid22

Holding bonds makes perfectly good sense for some people, but not everyone. Warren Buffett (whom I admire tremendously) is a perfect example of someone who does not particularly like to hold bonds. Compared to the average investor, if the stock market tanks, someone like Buffet is still a multi-Bil...

AnalogKid22

I'm planning to retire in 5-10 years. If I was 100% in stocks and there is a significant market correction in the next few years, my retirement plans could be derailed. I hold bonds to reduce this risk. The longer your investment horizon the more risk you should take, so bonds are less important.

AnalogKid22

From DR website... When you’re choosing your mutual funds, we recommend you invest in funds with a long history—10 years or more--of strong returns. Spread your investments across these four types of funds, with 25% in each type. Growth and Income: These funds have a history of stable growth that a...

AnalogKid22

I often question the role bonds have played in my portfolio. I am mid 50's with 40% bonds. I don't think that I, along with most Bogelheads, need bonds to keep me invested and "steady at the wheel". I do sometimes question this investing philosophy given how so many times bonds seem to move down in...

AnalogKid22

Helo80 wrote: ↑
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:59 pm

lostdog wrote: ↑
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:46 pm
Anyone here admit to emotional selling during that dip?
I emotionally bought some TSM... not a huge amount, but how often does the dow fall 1000 points? Might as well market time a bit.

Me too, but still contributing to TSM every 2-weeks.

AnalogKid22

Fees, savings rate - that’s all I can control and it’s all I worry about The stock market is nothing but a bunch of BS that if you have the stomach for will make you money over time I think this is part of the reason many investors use advisors, so they aren't involved in the day-to-day. They pay s...

AnalogKid22

Funny how the media and folks here are all acting like this is a major event eroding all our portfolios. I suppose its because its the first minor correction that we've seen in a while. All indexes are still much higher than they were this time last year. That said - I'm still trading some bonds fo...

AnalogKid22

Once more international is dropping the same or more than US Why is that? because I've put in like 10K over the last 2 weeks - oh well, buy more i guess Why not just set up auto contributions from your bank for every week, 2 weeks, a month, or whatever your preference? Sometimes you buy high, somet...

AnalogKid22

I'm part of the buyer group. I just cut some discretionary expense and bought equity on sale. This is an advantage of having a budget :greedy This really isn't much of a sale.... Exactly. Equities went up over several years, went way up in a few months, which scared investors, then dropped back to ...

AnalogKid22

CULater wrote: ↑
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:10 pm
Up nearly 500 at end of day. Whaaaatttt!

The mascot for today's market:

[embedded animated GIF removed by admin LadyGeek, here's the link: https://m.popkey.co/9be03d/DQJye.gif]

AnalogKid22

njuser wrote: ↑
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:23 pm
Vanguard is updated for today. ow.

T'is but a scratch. And people ask why they should hold bonds.

AnalogKid22

For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing? Unless it turns into a recession and you lose your job. People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't ge...

AnalogKid22

Largest gains ever in a few months to largest single-day drop ever - makes sense.

AnalogKid22

Who said index investing is boring?

AnalogKid22

Rather it happens earlier in the year. Hopefully, it provides more time for a rebound.

AnalogKid22

Boeing, McDonald's, Apple, Chevron, and Facebook are among the companies scheduled to report earnings later this week. VTSAX will most likely go up significantly. One of my main beliefs is "never make return predictions", since reality has a way of smashing them. So true. All of these companies pos...

AnalogKid22

The BH philosophy is to not market time, yet the majority of posts are about just that. There will be a lot of unhappy people when things take an ugly turn. "I know I shouldn't market time, but..." I'll bet that all but the most die-hard BHs would agree, though, that if the market going down causes...

AnalogKid22

The BH philosophy is to not market time, yet the majority of posts are about just that. There will be a lot of unhappy people when things take an ugly turn.

"I know I shouldn't market time, but..."

AnalogKid22

Could the explanation be as simple as rising bond rates make stocks relatively less attractive? I plan on watching Cramer tonight, so I can let you know what it was by tomorrow. He usually knows. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/video/jim-cramer-weighs-in-on-the-stock-markets-massive-plunge/vi-BBICPBL

AnalogKid22

Is there a guarantee bonds wouldn’t plummet in value as well? Or is the appeal “they’d suck slightly less” There are no guarantees with any investment - that's the whole point of risk and return, otherwise, why invest at all? Did you look at those Vanguard charts showing the return for different al...

AnalogKid22

I've yet to go through a bear market, which is why I've been actively buying bonds the last year to maintain my AA at 75/25. It's been great watching my portfolio rise - I guess that's why they call this the "euphoria" stage - and we hear daily about the market breaking records and all the money pe...

AnalogKid22

I've yet to go through a bear market, which is why I've been actively buying bonds the last year to maintain my AA at 75/25. It's been great watching my portfolio rise - I guess that's why they call this the "euphoria" stage - and we hear daily about the market breaking records and all the money peo...

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