Search found 146 matches

by Riley15
Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622596

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

CULater wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:58 am
I got out of stocks 11% ago. Decided I had won the game and it was getting a little hairy to keep playing. Hey, isn't that like a +11% return in just a few weeks? Pretty good for me.
Well yes it is but only until stocks go back up 11%. When they move up another 11%, then it's a -11% loss.
by Riley15
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622596

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this? You never know for certain. It could be hedge funds unwinding heaven knows what. It could be markets still trying to adjust to somewhat higher interest rates and inflation. Could be anticipation of an economic slowd...
by Riley15
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Beer - Strong German Style Lagers
Replies: 56
Views: 4878

Re: Beer - Strong German Style Lagers

Most European Beers are not that great in my opinion. They are relatively weak and don't have much to offer in the taste department. Maybe that's why they are served in very large glasses and just meant to be chugged. I think there's major movement going on in the Craft beer movement especially in t...
by Riley15
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11322

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

I just don't understand why so many on both sides of the issue are so militant about it. And with the one exception above, exceptionally few people seem apt to change their minds about the issue. It's just the way of the world. No different than the political landscape in the US. The forum is a mic...
by Riley15
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11322

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

Man, this topic has been getting rather tired lately. We're seeing like 1-2 threads per week essentially saying the same thing. The funny part is they always seem to be started by the 100% US crowd. Just look at how the most recent thread titles are worded: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stoc...
by Riley15
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11322

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

Here it is plain and simple. These might as well be a bunch of different stocks. Has US peaked? No one knows. Would you pick the most overvalued/undervalued or would stick to the market cap. With all the mantra about sticking to market cap indexes and staying diversified and not picking winners/lose...
by Riley15
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Time is Different
Replies: 30
Views: 5520

Re: This Time is Different

...I will say this much. I feel that I am hearing much less "this time it's different" talk than I heard in the late 1990s... Do you see the irony in the statement, "This time it's different" because nobody is talking about "This time it's different"? :!: Nope, I missed it. Yep, that's really what ...
by Riley15
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Time is Different
Replies: 30
Views: 5520

Re: This Time is Different

Banks and the investment industry compete to hold your money. By the "investment industry" I mean industries based on securities: stockbrokers, mutual funds, and financial advisors. When you liquidate stocks and hold cash, it is bad for the investment industry. Therefore, just about everybody in th...
by Riley15
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622596

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Why are the long term interest rates moving up? Fed only controls short term rates. So for long term rates to go up that means lot of long term bond selling going on, meaning prices dropping and yields going up. If money is moving out of long term bonds it's definitely not going into stocks since s...
by Riley15
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622596

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow. Dow 30 Index is now down 831 points today. The market isn't loving the higher interest rates. Something is going on here, are the hedge funds doing something we don't know about? It doesn't make any sense to me but markets sometimes do stuff like this. Pretty irrational. Why do folks assume th...
by Riley15
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622596

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Bought 100K£ worth of European small cap before the LSE closed; will put another 100K tomorrow morning in US stocks (unfortunately the stock exchange is closed here). I see it as buying stocks on sale! :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :sharebeer Is it really you Bhagwan? I didn't k...
by Riley15
Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622596

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Time to Sell! Sell now or you will be kicking yourself in two months for not selling earlier. The support has been broken, moving average is below where it should be. Smart money is selling, dumb money is holding, fools are buying. Be smart! :wink:
by Riley15
Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Root of Good's cost of raising a child: $3,300 per year
Replies: 163
Views: 5701

Re: Root of Good's cost of raising a child: $3,300 per year

The only thing that annoys me is that he takes his family all over the world while insuring the family's healthcare on the taxpayer's dime. He made that choice and I find it pretty repulsive. That's not the intent of the safety net and he deserves heat over that. He's more frugal than we plan to be...
by Riley15
Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Root of Good's cost of raising a child: $3,300 per year
Replies: 163
Views: 5701

Re: Root of Good's cost of raising a child: $3,300 per year

The only thing that annoys me is that he takes his family all over the world while insuring the family's healthcare on the taxpayer's dime. He made that choice and I find it pretty repulsive. That's not the intent of the safety net and he deserves heat over that. He's more frugal than we plan to be...
by Riley15
Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I own 1,387 items!
Replies: 128
Views: 10631

Re: I own 1,387 items!

I finally had the chance to do some unpacking after moving to my new place and was a little shocked at the number. I did some reasonable right-sizing for counting purposes. So, a bunch of keys on one keyring counts as one item. But ten t-shirts do count as ten items. For papers, I counted every 3-i...
by Riley15
Fri Aug 17, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106047

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

9 pages in. I have to ask. Has a single person changed their position having read or participated in this thread? :shock: :oops: :sharebeer Very few people actually change their positions based on meaningful discussion when presented with the facts. Bogleheads or not most people just want confirmat...
by Riley15
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106047

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

The approach is based on the notion that the market does an effective job of pricing securities. There is absolutely no reason to think that rationale would fail beyond the US borders. Then why have risk adjusted returns for U.S. equities been dramatically higher than international equities for 30 ...
by Riley15
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106047

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

The approach is based on the notion that the market does an effective job of pricing securities. There is absolutely no reason to think that rationale would fail beyond the US borders. Then why have risk adjusted returns for U.S. equities been dramatically higher than international equities for 30 ...
by Riley15
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106047

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

International stocks having 20 or 30 year underperformance compared to the US means nothing at all for the future. They are both diversified set of stocks and International more so than US because it's a basket of countries and a greater percentage. The US is only about 35-40% of world cap. Just be...
by Riley15
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106047

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

International stocks having 20 or 30 year underperformance compared to the US means nothing at all for the future. They are both diversified set of stocks and International more so than US because it's a basket of countries and a greater percentage. The US is only about 35-40% of world cap. Just bec...
by Riley15
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622596

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

My last buy was the 13th. :oops: My HSA contributions go through one business day prior to payday, but my 401k contributions go through 2-3 business days after. Go figure. You mentioned to be trend following so how come you're still investing with periodic contributions, weekly or bi-weekly. Wouldn...
by Riley15
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622596

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

My last buy was the 13th. :oops: My HSA contributions go through one business day prior to payday, but my 401k contributions go through 2-3 business days after. Go figure. You mentioned to be trend following so how come you're still investing with periodic contributions, weekly or bi-weekly. Wouldn...
by Riley15
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622596

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

My last buy was the 13th. :oops: My HSA contributions go through one business day prior to payday, but my 401k contributions go through 2-3 business days after. Go figure. You mentioned to be trend following so how come you're still investing with periodic contributions, weekly or bi-weekly. Wouldn...
by Riley15
Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 480
Views: 72665

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

I am in a similar situation although I have some long term CD's most of my funds are in short term Savings/MM. It's a matter of time when it will become cost-effective to break the long term CD's for reinvestment into higher rate CD's. This here is my dilemma, if I am breaking a 5 year CD should I ...
by Riley15
Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 4439

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

This is why the CAPE model appears to be broken. It's been above its mean 98% of the time for the past 26 years. And it's not like it didn't have chances to revert. We had two stock crashes in that time period, one of which was nearly a full-out financial panic. Even during that, it barely crossed ...
by Riley15
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 480
Views: 72665

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Treasuries have higher taxable-equivalent yield (TEY) for me at 2-year maturity, and are pretty much tied with CDs at 3-year maturity, so I would favor Treasuries out to 3-year maturity in a taxable account. However, I am not going further out than 2-year maturity in taxable with new cash due to re...
by Riley15
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 480
Views: 72665

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Treasuries have higher taxable-equivalent yield (TEY) for me at 2-year maturity, and are pretty much tied with CDs at 3-year maturity, so I would favor Treasuries out to 3-year maturity in a taxable account. However, I am not going further out than 2-year maturity in taxable with new cash due to re...
by Riley15
Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14671

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I have a few "mentees" I work with in that age group and we definitely discuss returns going forward in order to plan their investments. Over the past year, I've definitely suggested bumping up their savings rates because I just don't believe the past 10 years will be mirrored in the next decade. W...
by Riley15
Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14671

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

If very high valuations cause you to choose a more conservative asset allocation that would also mean at very low valuations you should choose a more aggressive asset allocation? I am not sure if that's such a good strategy because you're expecting those valuations to translate into returns which ma...
by Riley15
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4836

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

We make our investment decisions assuming two things The market has a positive real return over the long-term. No one can predict the future. Buy and Hold fits those two assumptions perfectly. If you believe one CAN predict the future, you will have a different investing strategy. Don't these two a...
by Riley15
Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Levels of Wealth
Replies: 125
Views: 12165

Re: 3 Levels of Wealth

OP, Another point of view. I am always wealthy. 1) I have never in debt. A) I pay off my credit card every month. B) I had a car loan but I can pay it off any time. C) I have a mortgage but I can pay it off any time too. 2) I save 1 year of expense every year for my whole life. But, I have enough m...
by Riley15
Wed Aug 01, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: DW job in dangerous area
Replies: 90
Views: 7233

Re: DW job in dangerous area

My wife just graduated school. I make about 200k. We have no debt and we are both 26 y.o., so we just started saving. She has been working very hard to get a job and finally landed one! She will make about 40k pretax. i.e. her salary will not push the needle lifestyle or savings-wise. Unfortunately...
by Riley15
Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: House purchase: pay cash or get mortgage?
Replies: 16
Views: 2556

Re: House purchase: pay cash or get mortgage?

Two things to consider:

1) Getting a mortgage may be better so you can deduct the Interest which will reduce your taxable income.

2) If it's a relatively low interest loan, you may be able to earn more in the market.
by Riley15
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - A fool's game?
Replies: 27
Views: 2546

Re: Market Timing - A fool's game?

To determine which equities I invest in, I use Portfolio Visualizer to determine and select which among those I have access to in each of my accounts (HSA, IRAs, 401k, 457) has had the highest relative performance for the last 7 months. In this way, I may be in large cap growth, small cap value, em...
by Riley15
Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 55, what's the magic number
Replies: 169
Views: 24534

Re: Retire at 55, what's the magic number

OP, 1) My annual expense is 60K per year. So, my number is 25 X 60K = 1.5 million with plenty of safety margin. 2) I could pay off my 300K mortgage. Then, my annual expense drop to 45K. 25 X 45K + 300K = 1.425 million 3) My combined social security income with my spouse is about 24K to 36K per year...
by Riley15
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 55, what's the magic number
Replies: 169
Views: 24534

Re: Retire at 55, what's the magic number

OP, 1) My annual expense is 60K per year. So, my number is 25 X 60K = 1.5 million with plenty of safety margin. 2) I could pay off my 300K mortgage. Then, my annual expense drop to 45K. 25 X 45K + 300K = 1.425 million 3) My combined social security income with my spouse is about 24K to 36K per year...
by Riley15
Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 236
Views: 45408

Re: VMMXX at 2%

Just wanted to share my happiness that we have a profitable place to park cash again! Even though online banks are insured, I never felt comfortable dealing with them, and it was a pain to have yet another waiting period before transactions completed. Where has everyone been placing cash for the la...
by Riley15
Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX (Vanguard Prime MM) risks
Replies: 71
Views: 11625

Re: VMMXX (Vanguard Prime MM) risks

VMMXX Prime Money Market is approximately 45% Foreign Bonds , so know what you're getting into. It's not a savings account and not FDIC insured. Treat it like a bond fund with International Bonds. If you're not comfortable buying Foreign Bond Funds why would you not care in a money market. Is this ...
by Riley15
Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX (Vanguard Prime MM) risks
Replies: 71
Views: 11625

Re: VMMXX (Vanguard Prime MM) risks

FYI From Vanguard Prospectus "You could lose money by investing in the Fund. Although the Fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it cannot guarantee it will do so. " :happy With VMMXX paying out approximately 1.91% with risk and CIT bank paying 1.85% with no risk fo...
by Riley15
Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX (Vanguard Prime MM) risks
Replies: 71
Views: 11625

Re: VMMXX (Vanguard Prime MM) risks

FYI From Vanguard Prospectus "You could lose money by investing in the Fund. Although the Fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it cannot guarantee it will do so. " :happy With VMMXX paying out approximately 1.91% with risk and CIT bank paying 1.85% with no risk fo...
by Riley15
Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Death - Prediction
Replies: 63
Views: 4382

Re: Death - Prediction

So to sum it all up. I thought Bogleheads were against Market Timing and here we are making Death Predictions. The irony is too much! :happy
by Riley15
Thu May 24, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5 yr CD up to 3.41% APY, NO EWP for seniors in IRA, but with catch
Replies: 43
Views: 6042

Re: 5 yr CD up to 3.41% APY, NO EWP for seniors in IRA, but with catch

Lower bid ask spreads only matter if you sell before maturity. Comparable or higher TEY in taxable is my bigger reason. At any rate, staying short term is consistent with your outlook. Not wanting to hijack but I see you are active on this thread and you see seem to be the go to person on this topi...
by Riley15
Fri May 18, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Very Unique Inflation Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1496

Re: A Very Unique Inflation Fund

I doubt this is an actively managed fund, just look at the expense ratio. SSGA is one of the largest providers of ETFs, Index Funds and CITs. My guess is that this is just a fund of SSGA CITs consisting of: TIPS CIT Global REIT CIT Global Natural Resources CIT Commodities CIT It may be a fund of fu...
by Riley15
Thu May 17, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally No Penalty CD @1.75% vs VMMXX @ 1.87%
Replies: 26
Views: 4186

Re: Ally No Penalty CD @1.75% vs VMMXX @ 1.87%

Hello, Quick question.. Would you transfer 25k from an Ally No Penalty CD @1.75% to Vanguard Prime Money Market VMMXX @ 1.87%. Obviously the rate is higher at Vanguard. From what I gather VMMXX is not FDIC insured but it is incredibly difficult to lose the value of each dollar there. My general rul...
by Riley15
Thu May 17, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Very Unique Inflation Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1496

Re: A Very Unique Inflation Fund

What do you guys think, is this something you would invest a portion of your portfolio in? They have it rated this as low risk category but I am not so sure. I would not invest in it. I skimmed through it & one sentence struck me: "The Fund is managed by the UTC Pension Investments group and curren...
by Riley15
Mon May 14, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Very Unique Inflation Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1496

A Very Unique Inflation Fund

One of my past employer plans offers a very unique inflation fund as an investment option. It's called the Inflation Sensitive Assets Fund . I have been meaning to make sense of this fund for some time but apparently the only information that's available is just the morningstar fact sheet. And there...
by Riley15
Thu May 10, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap
Replies: 62
Views: 9320

Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Wouldn't paying less than the current market-price for a lot of shares...change the market-price? Not true! Market prices are only set for shares traded on the open exchanges. Non-open market transactions or transactions between private parties are non directly setting market prices. Even using a D...
by Riley15
Wed May 09, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Newb: Money Market Fund (VMSXX) vs high yield savings online banking for E-fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 3155

Re: Newb: Money Market Fund (VMSXX) vs high yield savings online banking for E-fund?

I suggest you look into opening a brokerage account at Vanguard. You can invest in Vanguard Prime Money Market (VMMXX). Current SEC yield is 1.84, which is expected to rise if the Feds continue raising interest rates. Money market funds are more responsive to raise rates with the fed, whereas high ...
by Riley15
Wed May 09, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to handle problem employee
Replies: 84
Views: 6373

Re: How to handle problem employee

I'll give you an example. The other day, she emailed me about something not being updated in our system. I walked over and said it hasn't been updated, because she is in charge of updating the system when the routing form appears in her inbox (the form is sitting in her inbox) She says "I thought I...
by Riley15
Wed May 09, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap
Replies: 62
Views: 9320

Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

roymeo wrote:
Tue May 08, 2018 6:32 pm
Wouldn't paying less than the current market-price for a lot of shares...change the market-price?
Not true! Market prices are only set for shares traded on the open exchanges. Non-open market transactions or transactions between private parties are non directly setting market prices.