Search found 169 matches

by Riley15
Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CDs: 1 yr vs 3yr
Replies: 46
Views: 4585

Re: CDs: 1 yr vs 3yr

Decided I am going to put 100k in my local bank at 3% for 18 months. Yes its FIDC insured. No extra fee's Whatsover and .53 basis points over VMMXX currently right now which is 2.47. I'd like to do something with another 100k if I could get more than 3% and also protected. That still leaves me enou...
by Riley15
Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How "Safe" is Your Bond Fund?
Replies: 43
Views: 3997

Re: How "Safe" is Your Bond Fund?

While everyone is well aware of Term and Credit risks with Bonds and that's what is used to make investment decisions. The hidden but one of the most important but overlooked risk is Liquidity, I think this is the critical factor that can break the bond fund in times of distress. Term risks are well...
by Riley15
Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%
Replies: 146
Views: 21750

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%

[ I had $14000 "invested" when I got out and lost $14.76 on the sale. Of course at the end I was getting dividends of some $60 a month. (I saw the writing on the wall and got out before the end.) :D So what was so apparent when the NAV dipped that you decided to sell? Bonds always fluctuate in NAV ...
by Riley15
Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How "Safe" is Your Bond Fund?
Replies: 43
Views: 3997

How "Safe" is Your Bond Fund?

Recently in another thread Kevin M brought to my attention the case of the Schwab Yield-Plus Ultrashort Term Bond Fund (SWYPX). This was supposedly a ultrashort bond fund but marketed as a "high-yield" type money market fund with duration of less than 1 year and a "safe" place to keep cash. It went ...
by Riley15
Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate stock buybacks
Replies: 19
Views: 1000

Re: Corporate stock buybacks

Corporate buyback shares are usually retired, decreasing total share number and therefore increasing earnings per share even if earnings do not increase. Better PEs typically result in better stock prices, hence the payoff for investors comes from stock price appreciation. D Garland Whizzer By bett...
by Riley15
Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%
Replies: 146
Views: 21750

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%

Kevin M wrote:
Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:29 pm

I'm pretty sure that this is the one that Doc and I owned, and both got out of before it got too bad (as I recall, I got out after losing about 1%).

Kevin

Having been there what made you realize to sell when it was down 1% and go against the "stay the course" mantra?
by Riley15
Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%
Replies: 146
Views: 21750

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%

Looking at the 1-year return of the Schwab ultra-short bond fund before it tanked in 2008 probably made it look good compared to money market funds too. Sometimes you are rewarded for credit risk, and sometimes the risk shows up. Kevin Can you share what the Ticker of the this Ultra-short term bond...
by Riley15
Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%
Replies: 146
Views: 21750

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%

Looking at the 1-year return of the Schwab ultra-short bond fund before it tanked in 2008 probably made it look good compared to money market funds too. Sometimes you are rewarded for credit risk, and sometimes the risk shows up. Kevin Can you share what the Ticker of the this Ultra-short term bond...
by Riley15
Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate stock buybacks
Replies: 19
Views: 1000

Re: Corporate stock buybacks

Isn't the buyback a bigger benefit to the executives than dividends, because of the fact it inflates per share price and thus the potential market value of their unvested options? In theory no - the price of a stock would be unchanged. Yes, in theory the price of the stock would remain unchanged si...
by Riley15
Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX - Why so popular? [Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund]
Replies: 23
Views: 2649

Re: VMMXX - Why so popular? [Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund]

Hello all, I have been reading up on the many articles here and many people refer to VMMXX as a great place to put cash or emergency fund ... I was looking into it, and it seems it only yields 2.48% but has a 0.16% expense ratio, which would make the net yield 2.32% Ally no penalty CD offers 2.3% C...
by Riley15
Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding T-Bill Rates
Replies: 5
Views: 779

Understanding T-Bill Rates

I am trying to get a good hold on the different notations to indicate T-Bill rates and how to simply compare them to CD rates? At Vaguad auction page a Indicate Yield is shown for 1-month T-Bill as 2.379% https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/bonds/bonddesk?lang=en At Treasury Direct the most recen...
by Riley15
Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%
Replies: 146
Views: 21750

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%

However, my taxable-equivalent SEC yield (TEY) for Vanguard Treasury MM fund is even higher at 2.61% (2.64% on an APY basis); that's at an SEC yield of 2.32%, and marginal tax rates of 27% fed and 8% state (it's mainly the state tax exemption that boosts the TEY of Treasury MM). And Treasury MM is ...
by Riley15
Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 269
Views: 13556

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Last year, the first full year of my implementation of this strategy, my overall portfolio performance was -4.38%. This was slightly better than Vanguard's Total Stock Market index fund, VTSAX, which returned -5.17%, and much better than Vanguard's Total International Stock index fund, VTIAX, which...
by Riley15
Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Just missed a few days of gains rolling over 401K from Fidelity to Vanguard
Replies: 59
Views: 1658

Re: Just missed a few days of gains rolling over 401K from Fidelity to Vanguard

What would you do at this point? Wait 1 more day with the funds in cash since we had two market up days? Or just buy in immediately regardless of the 1.5%+ that I just missed? I cannot predict the future, so I am not sure what I would do now, but here is what I have done in the past: In a situation...
by Riley15
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 103
Views: 5875

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

I don't really understand how physical gold is a hedge against some type of worldwide catastrophe. It has no intrinsic value or use other than what most metals can be used for. In an apocalypse or anarchy what good would gold do, why would people suddenly defer to gold as the currency? The only thin...
by Riley15
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Super Short Term Bond Risks
Replies: 16
Views: 1461

Re: Super Short Term Bond Risks

Is the spread of tax-adjusted returns between an ultra short bond fund and the Prime Money Market fund (VMMXX) worth it, even at the highest marginal rate? If you factor the zero chance of NAV fluctuation in VMMXX, what is the premium differential that you believe is worth the added risk? Is this l...
by Riley15
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Super Short Term Bond Risks
Replies: 16
Views: 1461

Super Short Term Bond Risks

The Vanguard Ultra Short Term Bond (VUBFX) seems like a great place to park short term funds. It has a SEC yield of 2.71% and a duration of only 0.9 years so the interest rate risk seems minimal. However I am trying to understand the credit risk. Ultra Short Term Bond (VUBFX) seems very different fr...
by Riley15
Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806265

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Including the Nov., 2018, data, it is 3.92. November's UER was 3.7. Historically, this has been a strong indicator that we are not currently in a recession. Can you please provide the link to where you pull the 12MMA unemployment rate from? Many thanks. I calculate with Excel using the data from th...
by Riley15
Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]
Replies: 153
Views: 13771

Re: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]

Well he said "play it safe" https://www.barrons.com/articles/vanguard-founder-jack-bogle-on-the-stock-market-51545950443?mod=hp_BRIEFLIST_1&mod=article_inline "Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe" In case you’re thinking that it’s safe to dive back into the stock market, thin...
by Riley15
Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Get greedy when others are fearful?
Replies: 14
Views: 1998

Re: Get greedy when others are fearful?

I believe Warren Buffett said the time to be fearful is when others are greedy and the time to be greedy is when others are fearful. Does anyone follow this? And if so, how? I’ve been age - 10 = fixed for a while but feel I could be more aggressive. I’m wondering if I should switch to age - 20 if t...
by Riley15
Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806265

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:58 pm
corn18 wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:56 pm
RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:51 pm
What do they know that the rest of us don't?
Nothing
Obviously, they do.

They don't actually know anything but they can perpetuate what they think they know making it true. It's he who sets prices that controls the markets not indexers.
by Riley15
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not Fed's job to fix irrational market
Replies: 18
Views: 2258

Re: Not Fed's job to fix irrational market

The unemployment rate is at rock-bottom, and it's also trending downward I don't know how much of that is a sign of the economy being really strong, versus wages having been "sticky" for many years during the recovery from the financial crisis (despite the stock market, GDP and profits recovering p...
by Riley15
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 12519

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

It seems many of the posts are really painting other people (non-bogleheads) using a very broad brush. Each person is different and unique. People are just wired differently and this can change at any time. Bogleheads are planners and value saving and retirement higher on their priorities and think ...
by Riley15
Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806265

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

CULater wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:58 am
I got out of stocks 11% ago. Decided I had won the game and it was getting a little hairy to keep playing. Hey, isn't that like a +11% return in just a few weeks? Pretty good for me.
Well yes it is but only until stocks go back up 11%. When they move up another 11%, then it's a -11% loss.
by Riley15
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806265

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this? You never know for certain. It could be hedge funds unwinding heaven knows what. It could be markets still trying to adjust to somewhat higher interest rates and inflation. Could be anticipation of an economic slowd...
by Riley15
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Beer - Strong German Style Lagers
Replies: 56
Views: 4941

Re: Beer - Strong German Style Lagers

Most European Beers are not that great in my opinion. They are relatively weak and don't have much to offer in the taste department. Maybe that's why they are served in very large glasses and just meant to be chugged. I think there's major movement going on in the Craft beer movement especially in t...
by Riley15
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11734

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

I just don't understand why so many on both sides of the issue are so militant about it. And with the one exception above, exceptionally few people seem apt to change their minds about the issue. It's just the way of the world. No different than the political landscape in the US. The forum is a mic...
by Riley15
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11734

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

Man, this topic has been getting rather tired lately. We're seeing like 1-2 threads per week essentially saying the same thing. The funny part is they always seem to be started by the 100% US crowd. Just look at how the most recent thread titles are worded: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stoc...
by Riley15
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11734

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

Here it is plain and simple. These might as well be a bunch of different stocks. Has US peaked? No one knows. Would you pick the most overvalued/undervalued or would stick to the market cap. With all the mantra about sticking to market cap indexes and staying diversified and not picking winners/lose...
by Riley15
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Time is Different
Replies: 30
Views: 5617

Re: This Time is Different

...I will say this much. I feel that I am hearing much less "this time it's different" talk than I heard in the late 1990s... Do you see the irony in the statement, "This time it's different" because nobody is talking about "This time it's different"? :!: Nope, I missed it. Yep, that's really what ...
by Riley15
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Time is Different
Replies: 30
Views: 5617

Re: This Time is Different

Banks and the investment industry compete to hold your money. By the "investment industry" I mean industries based on securities: stockbrokers, mutual funds, and financial advisors. When you liquidate stocks and hold cash, it is bad for the investment industry. Therefore, just about everybody in th...
by Riley15
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806265

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Why are the long term interest rates moving up? Fed only controls short term rates. So for long term rates to go up that means lot of long term bond selling going on, meaning prices dropping and yields going up. If money is moving out of long term bonds it's definitely not going into stocks since s...
by Riley15
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806265

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow. Dow 30 Index is now down 831 points today. The market isn't loving the higher interest rates. Something is going on here, are the hedge funds doing something we don't know about? It doesn't make any sense to me but markets sometimes do stuff like this. Pretty irrational. Why do folks assume th...
by Riley15
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806265

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Bought 100K£ worth of European small cap before the LSE closed; will put another 100K tomorrow morning in US stocks (unfortunately the stock exchange is closed here). I see it as buying stocks on sale! :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :sharebeer Is it really you Bhagwan? I didn't k...
by Riley15
Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806265

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Time to Sell! Sell now or you will be kicking yourself in two months for not selling earlier. The support has been broken, moving average is below where it should be. Smart money is selling, dumb money is holding, fools are buying. Be smart! :wink:
by Riley15
Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Root of Good's cost of raising a child: $3,300 per year
Replies: 163
Views: 5909

Re: Root of Good's cost of raising a child: $3,300 per year

The only thing that annoys me is that he takes his family all over the world while insuring the family's healthcare on the taxpayer's dime. He made that choice and I find it pretty repulsive. That's not the intent of the safety net and he deserves heat over that. He's more frugal than we plan to be...
by Riley15
Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Root of Good's cost of raising a child: $3,300 per year
Replies: 163
Views: 5909

Re: Root of Good's cost of raising a child: $3,300 per year

The only thing that annoys me is that he takes his family all over the world while insuring the family's healthcare on the taxpayer's dime. He made that choice and I find it pretty repulsive. That's not the intent of the safety net and he deserves heat over that. He's more frugal than we plan to be...
by Riley15
Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I own 1,387 items!
Replies: 128
Views: 10744

Re: I own 1,387 items!

I finally had the chance to do some unpacking after moving to my new place and was a little shocked at the number. I did some reasonable right-sizing for counting purposes. So, a bunch of keys on one keyring counts as one item. But ten t-shirts do count as ten items. For papers, I counted every 3-i...
by Riley15
Fri Aug 17, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 108660

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

9 pages in. I have to ask. Has a single person changed their position having read or participated in this thread? :shock: :oops: :sharebeer Very few people actually change their positions based on meaningful discussion when presented with the facts. Bogleheads or not most people just want confirmat...
by Riley15
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 108660

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

The approach is based on the notion that the market does an effective job of pricing securities. There is absolutely no reason to think that rationale would fail beyond the US borders. Then why have risk adjusted returns for U.S. equities been dramatically higher than international equities for 30 ...
by Riley15
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 108660

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

The approach is based on the notion that the market does an effective job of pricing securities. There is absolutely no reason to think that rationale would fail beyond the US borders. Then why have risk adjusted returns for U.S. equities been dramatically higher than international equities for 30 ...
by Riley15
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 108660

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

International stocks having 20 or 30 year underperformance compared to the US means nothing at all for the future. They are both diversified set of stocks and International more so than US because it's a basket of countries and a greater percentage. The US is only about 35-40% of world cap. Just be...
by Riley15
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 108660

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

International stocks having 20 or 30 year underperformance compared to the US means nothing at all for the future. They are both diversified set of stocks and International more so than US because it's a basket of countries and a greater percentage. The US is only about 35-40% of world cap. Just bec...
by Riley15
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806265

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

My last buy was the 13th. :oops: My HSA contributions go through one business day prior to payday, but my 401k contributions go through 2-3 business days after. Go figure. You mentioned to be trend following so how come you're still investing with periodic contributions, weekly or bi-weekly. Wouldn...
by Riley15
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806265

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

My last buy was the 13th. :oops: My HSA contributions go through one business day prior to payday, but my 401k contributions go through 2-3 business days after. Go figure. You mentioned to be trend following so how come you're still investing with periodic contributions, weekly or bi-weekly. Wouldn...
by Riley15
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806265

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

My last buy was the 13th. :oops: My HSA contributions go through one business day prior to payday, but my 401k contributions go through 2-3 business days after. Go figure. You mentioned to be trend following so how come you're still investing with periodic contributions, weekly or bi-weekly. Wouldn...
by Riley15
Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 484
Views: 76263

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

I am in a similar situation although I have some long term CD's most of my funds are in short term Savings/MM. It's a matter of time when it will become cost-effective to break the long term CD's for reinvestment into higher rate CD's. This here is my dilemma, if I am breaking a 5 year CD should I ...
by Riley15
Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 4537

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

This is why the CAPE model appears to be broken. It's been above its mean 98% of the time for the past 26 years. And it's not like it didn't have chances to revert. We had two stock crashes in that time period, one of which was nearly a full-out financial panic. Even during that, it barely crossed ...
by Riley15
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 484
Views: 76263

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Treasuries have higher taxable-equivalent yield (TEY) for me at 2-year maturity, and are pretty much tied with CDs at 3-year maturity, so I would favor Treasuries out to 3-year maturity in a taxable account. However, I am not going further out than 2-year maturity in taxable with new cash due to re...
by Riley15
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 484
Views: 76263

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Treasuries have higher taxable-equivalent yield (TEY) for me at 2-year maturity, and are pretty much tied with CDs at 3-year maturity, so I would favor Treasuries out to 3-year maturity in a taxable account. However, I am not going further out than 2-year maturity in taxable with new cash due to re...