Search found 798 matches

by Rowan Oak
Wed Mar 22, 2023 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Luxury Goods - Christine Benz
Replies: 13
Views: 2219

Luxury Goods - Christine Benz

"[A]s I’ve grown up and have more funds at my disposal, a funny thing has happened. I’m much less inclined to want or need to show what I have than was the case when I had much less."

This one was from the heart.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/11 ... xury-goods

Christine Benz
Mar 22, 2023
by Rowan Oak
Wed Feb 01, 2023 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 10 Most Important Things I Tell Clients by Allan Roth
Replies: 13
Views: 4782

The 10 Most Important Things I Tell Clients by Allan Roth

Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
The 10 Most Important Things I Tell Clients
by Allan Roth, 1/30/23

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/art ... ll-clients
by Rowan Oak
Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:37 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [favorite] Boglehead quotes
Replies: 162
Views: 35208

Re: [favorite] Boglehead quotes

from What's in Rick Ferri's portfolio?
Rick Ferri wrote: Sun Aug 21, 2022 8:25 pm
Philosophy is universal
Strategy is personal.
Discipline in mandatory.

If you want to know what I mean by this, watch this video:https://youtu.be/wyxIb9BI7_o
by Rowan Oak
Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:29 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: 🎊Happy 99th Birthday to Taylor Larimore🎉
Replies: 247
Views: 11314

Re: 🎊Happy 99th Birthday to Taylor Larimore🎉

You mean more than you'll ever know to my family. Thank you for the guidance and inspiration. Happy birthday!
by Rowan Oak
Tue Jan 03, 2023 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Portable battery booster
Replies: 24
Views: 1909

Re: Portable battery booster

There’s a guy on YouTube called Project Farm who does great reviews on stuff just like this. He has done some on battery jump packs so maybe do a search for those; I think he just did a fairly recent one. Project Farm does a thorough review and claims not to take paid advertisements, sponsorships, etc. https://youtube.com/@ProjectFarm Here’s a link to most recent video on Jump Starters: https://youtu.be/VRFwEUr_Vjc Here’s the older videos on Jump Starters: 2019 https://youtu.be/JN8A2nIMUWA 2020 https://youtu.be/ixWPx79g3yk And here is a searchable list of everything he’s tested (he shares this link in his video descriptions): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRSdaMe-QIMjm-ZcfX8mdjY1srdCeJUg2m-IwjSWPKoRhzW5bWos35RGQ-YMR4iZA-i...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Jan 03, 2023 7:14 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: A Big Thank You to Mel & Taylor
Replies: 13
Views: 1682

Re: A Big Thank You to Mel & Taylor

Thanks to Mel and Taylor and this board, I put a significant amount into I Bonds over several years. Because Mel and Taylor shared their insight and investing experience, I was able to capture the luscious 3.2%-3.6% fixed rates. This was when you could buy 60K per person and even use a credit card with reward points for the purchase. trailmik: I appreciate your post but I never recommended I-Bonds. Simplicity is my thing. It was Mel who deserves the I-Bond credit. I am not surprised to learn that Bogleheads who listened to Mel have profited significantly. Best wishes. Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: “Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others. It's cheaper!”. Taylor is correct that I was the lone voice in the wilde...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Dec 19, 2022 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Security Hardware for Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab Accounts - Harry Sit
Replies: 49
Views: 6366

Security Hardware for Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab Accounts - Harry Sit

Stop using your phone for login authentication. Give yourself the gift of security and buy separate security hardware for your investment accounts.

Table of Contents
The Weakest Link: Password Reset
Google Voice for SMS
Secure Your Email
Symantec VIP
Buy Hardware Token
Register Token with Fidelity
Yubikey
Add Yubikey to Google Account
Register Yubikey with Vanguard
Symantec VIP On Yubikey
Security Hardware for Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab Accounts
Dec 19, 2022 by Harry Sit
https://thefinancebuff.com/security-har ... guard.html
by Rowan Oak
Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Moves You Must Make When a Spouse Dies - Allan Roth
Replies: 7
Views: 1382

Financial Moves You Must Make When a Spouse Dies - Allan Roth

Death is inevitable, and if you have a partner, one of you is highly likely to pass away first. This will leave the surviving spouse with financial tasks and decisions to make. Some of these tasks are critical and the surviving spouse needs to do them fairly quickly, all while grieving the loss of their partner in life. My first recommendation is to prepare for the inevitable. Simplify your finances by decluttering the number of accounts you have, and make sure both of you are also partners in your financial matters so the other isn’t left clueless. This also protects both of you in case of cognitive decline. Make sure your spouse knows your wishes, and write them out in the appropriate estate planning documents, such as a will. By Allan R...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 35 Signs That You Are a Bad Investor - Dr. James M. Dahle
Replies: 68
Views: 7967

35 Signs That You Are a Bad Investor - Dr. James M. Dahle

It's a funny quirk of human nature that we learn more from bad experiences and examples than we do from good ones. Today, let's talk about 35 signs that you are not a very good investor.
35 Signs That You Are a Bad Investor
December 12, 2022
https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/bad-investor/
by Rowan Oak
Mon Nov 28, 2022 5:01 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Sad news - Sheepdog passed away
Replies: 135
Views: 22878

Re: Sad news - Sheepdog passed away

Rest in peace, Sheepdog

I remember reading his I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09] post and it helped me greatly during that time. He seemed genuinely kind and wrote from the heart. He will be missed.
by Rowan Oak
Sun Nov 27, 2022 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is index fund investing the way to go?
Replies: 85
Views: 39932

Re: Is index fund investing the way to go?

Elle_N wrote: Fri Nov 25, 2022 4:43 pm masonstone, if this is for real, then it seems to me that you should be seeking out an investment advising firm that connects high income and high net worth individuals to extraordinary investment opportunities (or at least opportunities that are out of reach to us plebes). See if anything the firm suggests has appeal.
This is bad advice to say the least.
by Rowan Oak
Sat Nov 12, 2022 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to stop comparison / fomo
Replies: 105
Views: 9392

Re: How to stop comparison / fomo

hammond wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:16 am I am a boglehead for the most part. I was recently talking to a friend about their investments. He was mentioning that in 2020, he bought some SPY calls and was able to turn 75k into 1.8m.
Soon they upgraded their lifestyle and now have like a 4m house.

Anyways, I am having huge FOMO because of this. To me the boglehead way seems like the slow and steady way. How do folks avoid fomo?
Annie Duke calls this “resulting” in her book “Thinking in bets : making smarter decisions when you don’t have all the facts”.
Drawing an overly tight relationship between results and decision quality affects our decisions every day, potentially with far-reaching, catastrophic consequences.
by Rowan Oak
Sun Nov 06, 2022 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The TIME Project - a summary of TIME magazine from 1923-2000 (overlaid on the price action of the stock market)
Replies: 1
Views: 704

The TIME Project - a summary of TIME magazine from 1923-2000 (overlaid on the price action of the stock market)

The Time Project by Scott Krisiloff. https://thetimeproject.org/ https://twitter.com/Skrisiloff Between 2013 and 2017 I read every issue of TIME magazine from 1923-2000–nearly 4,000 issues and 77 years worth of history. The project began as a way to track economic history and ended up being personally transformative. By reading TIME week by week over the course of multiple generations I was able to watch and feel history unfold. The experience ultimately changed the way that I live my life. These are 10 things I learned from reading every TIME Magazine in history: 1) Compared to the scale of history, a human lifespan is relatively brief. In the early days of TIME, the editors of the magazine began obituaries with the phrase “As it must to a...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Oct 31, 2022 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: By One Measure, 2022 Bond Crash Is Worse Than Stocks During the Great Depression - Allan Roth
Replies: 3
Views: 911

By One Measure, 2022 Bond Crash Is Worse Than Stocks During the Great Depression - Allan Roth

because the cause of the 2022 bond crash was rising rates rather than defaults, we know these bonds will recover at some point. That’s because the yields on these bond indexes have surged. The current 30-day SEC yield on BND as of Oct. 26 was 4.44%. If rates stabilize, I estimate that in five years, the average annualized five-year return of BND will be just over the 1.60% yield going into this year. There was no assurance that stocks would ever recover after the Great Depression.
https://www.barrons.com/advisor/article ... 1667243626

By One Measure, 2022 Bond Crash Is Worse Than Stocks During the Great Depression
By Allan Roth, Wealth Logic
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 30, 2022 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns
Replies: 18
Views: 1662

Re: The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns

The reason that ‘guru’ is such a popular word is because ‘charlatan’ is so hard to spell.

– William Bernstein
The bottom line is that the research shows that when it comes to predicting economic growth, interest rates, currencies or the stock market, the only value of investment gurus is to make weather forecasters look good. Keep this in mind the next time you find yourself paying attention to the latest guru’s forecast. You’re best served by ignoring it.
Swedroe: Measuring Value In Forecasts

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... -forecasts
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 29, 2022 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In the Markets Nothing is as Dependable as Cycles by Ben Carlson
Replies: 8
Views: 1365

In the Markets Nothing is as Dependable as Cycles by Ben Carlson

Trust me, the 60/40 portfolio is not dead because it had one bad year. That’s not how this works.

This same line of thinking has been applied to the 4% rule for portfolio withdrawals in recent years because bond yields were so low.

Guess what?

Bond yields are now somewhere in the 4-6% range. The 4% rule has come back from the dead.

Or maybe it was never dead to begin with and this stuff is all just cyclical.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/1 ... as-cycles/

In the Markets Nothing is as Dependable as Cycles
Posted October 28, 2022 by Ben Carlson
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 29, 2022 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "News You Can't Use"
Replies: 16
Views: 2076

News You Can’t Use - Jonathan Clements

[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]
Amid the financial markets’ daily turmoil, investors often lose sight of fundamental truths and make foolish changes to their portfolio. To stay the course, many folks need to be regularly reminded of what sensible investing looks like.
News You Can’t Use

https://humbledollar.com/2022/10/news-you-cant-use/

Jonathan Clements
by Rowan Oak
Wed Oct 26, 2022 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the Bogleheads conference
Replies: 10
Views: 1486

The Intelligent Investor newsletter: The Bogleheads' Secret

[Merged here - moderator oldcomputerguy]

http://createsend.com/t/d-31D4DE8556AF6 ... 23F30FEDED

Meet the Bogleheads
By Jason Zweig
Earlier this month, I joined more than 350 other folks at the Bogleheads conference.

The Bogleheads are individual investors who offer each other, and the rest of the world, free investing advice on their online forum and Wiki pages.

Although Jack Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group, died in 2019, the Bogleheads still follow his simple principles of low-cost, no-frills investing.
by Rowan Oak
Mon Oct 24, 2022 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you are over-rebalancing?
Replies: 62
Views: 4808

Re: How many of you are over-rebalancing?

I haven’t even reached my normal rebalancing band limit. Because bonds have declined nearly as much as stocks. I guess that's the consolation prize for both major assets declining together....no need to rebalance. Yes, it seems like people are using the term rebalance to explain their market timing Indeed, I think J Clements wrote somewhere that it's the only form of market timing he has done (e.g. in 2009 I think he was close to 100% in stocks if I remember correctly). In his most recent article about the matter he said this: This isn’t market timing. I’m not making a big all-or-nothing bet based on a market forecast, but rather responding to what the market has already done. Of course, I hope—and indeed fully expect—that the broad stock ...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 15, 2022 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Investment Sin - Jonathan Clements
Replies: 13
Views: 2710

Re: My Investment Sin - Jonathan Clements

Same here. I was 50/50 at the start of the year and I'm currently at 53/47 and plan to stop at 60/40 if the market continues to drop since I am retired. If you get to 60/40, you’ll have increased your stock exposure by 20% and decreased your bond exposure by the same amount. Just keep in mind that percentage-point changes are different than percentage changes. Correct, and I'm comfortable with that considering the conservative AA that I started with at the beginning of retirement. Ideally I would like to further increase equities depending on the depth of the downturn but I have to remind myself that I'm no longer in accumulation mode so I am limiting myself so as to not potentially rebalance into oblivion if stocks really take a long-term...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 15, 2022 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Investment Sin - Jonathan Clements
Replies: 13
Views: 2710

Re: My Investment Sin - Jonathan Clements

Clements immediately clarifies what true market timing is and why it is not what he's doing: This isn’t market timing . I’m not making a big all-or-nothing bet based on a market forecast, but rather responding to what the market has already done. Of course, I hope—and indeed fully expect—that the broad stock market will eventually recover its losses and go on to notch new all-time highs. But I have no idea when that’ll happen. That’s why I haven’t made some big onetime shift from bonds to stocks, which is what a market-timer would do. Instead, I just keep buying more as share prices fall, and that’s how I’ve ended up overweighted in stocks. And he goes on to clarifiy rebalancing: I’d argue this is similar to rebalancing, but a tad more agg...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 15, 2022 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Investment Sin - Jonathan Clements
Replies: 13
Views: 2710

My Investment Sin - Jonathan Clements

I’m guilty of this one myself. Once the market is down more than 20% or so I will do my usual rebalancing, but buy a little more VTI (Vanguard total stock index) than I need to get back to my target allocation. I’m also rebalancing more often than I would when my stock % is drifting upwards. As of today I’m 63% stocks while my “chosen” stock allocation is supposed to be 60%. During the last bull market I would sell stocks to stay very close to my 60% stock allocation. In this bear market I’m buying stocks, but a little more than I should. I’m a market-timer-over-rebalancer. I’LL CONCEDE IT’S HARD to justify—but I don’t believe it’s 100% unjustifiable. At issue: my strategy of overweighting stocks during big market declines. I did so in 2007...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Oct 06, 2022 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How often do you update your browser on your PC?
Replies: 87
Views: 5079

Re: How often do you update your browser on your PC?

water2357 wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:06 pm How often do you update your browser on your PC?

Do you set it on automatic updates? And if so, have you ever been faced with any problems due to an automatic update?

Have you ever had any security issues with a financial institution due to an out dated browser?
You want to keep your browser up to date, because most updates are for fixing security vulnerabilities. Most browsers will at least notify you when an update is available. I recommend updating as soon as possible or better yet allow automatic updates.
by Rowan Oak
Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time to exchange Total Bond Index for Short Term Bond Index?
Replies: 29
Views: 25970

Re: Time to exchange Total Bond Index for Short Term Bond Index?

retiredjg wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:14 am
nisiprius wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:06 am The Boglehead philosophy is that "average" is a) good enough, b) actually pretty good, and c) probably better than the results of trying to beat the average.
I'm gonna steal this - my favorite quote of the year. :happy
+1
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:35 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Join the Wiki!
Replies: 115
Views: 99049

Re: Join the Wiki!

Would be glad to help.
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Back to Fundamentals - Jonathan Clements
Replies: 0
Views: 424

Back to Fundamentals - Jonathan Clements

Every bear market is not only different from earlier declines, but also each one feels different—with unique issues that trick us into thinking the problems will snowball and the financial damage will be permanent. Such feelings aren’t surprising: If every bear market seemed similar, we’d all be emotionally prepared and there would be little or no panic.
Back to Fundamentals

https://humbledollar.com/2022/10/back-to-fundamentals/

Jonathan Clements | Oct 1, 2022
by Rowan Oak
Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is "Stay The Course" dead?
Replies: 416
Views: 41736

Re: Is "Stay The Course" dead?

...So, I guess my question is, why didn't I (and I'm sure a lot of others) sell out when it was obvious what was going to happen? Was it greed, hope, something else, or was it really only obvious in hindsight? You got it on the fourth try. It was really only obvious in hindsight. There's a mental trap I fall into, and I think most people fall into, that is hard to detect unless you literally take notes. We all have mood swings and we all entertain contradictory, mutually exclusive visions of the future. In 2021, one day you might have agreed with the Fed that inflation was "transitory" and the next day you might have decided it was here to stay. Down the road, in hindsight, you remember the time you were right and forget the time...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's CIO's (Greg Davis) take on the markets
Replies: 5
Views: 987

Re: Vanguard's CIO's (Greg Davis) take on the markets

livesoft wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:42 pm Which came first? The Worst Day? Or the Best Day?
The Worst Day, of course.
by Rowan Oak
Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 4064
Views: 571517

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

Trying to setup my Fidelity CMA to use with a credit card auto pay, but when I enter the routing and account numbers the credit card company says they can't link the account. They do say I can call and try to have them add it. Just wanted to find out if anyone else is having trouble using Fidelity CMA for credit card auto pay before I begin the transition from Ally Bank to Fidelity CMA. This is the first time I've tried setting up a "Direct Debit" using my Fidelity CMA. I'm using the 17 digit account number. (I double checked and did enter the correct routing and acct #s Fidelity provided) There is money in my Fidelity CMA, but it hasn't settled yet and is marked as "unavailable". I've never used the CMA account before,...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 4064
Views: 571517

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

Trying to setup my Fidelity CMA to use with a credit card auto pay, but when I enter the routing and account numbers the credit card company says they can't link the account. They do say I can call and try to have them add it. Just wanted to find out if anyone else is having trouble using Fidelity CMA for credit card auto pay before I begin the transition from Ally Bank to Fidelity CMA. This is the first time I've tried setting up a "Direct Debit" using my Fidelity CMA. I'm using the 17 digit account number. (I double checked and did enter the correct routing and acct #s Fidelity provided) There is money in my Fidelity CMA, but it hasn't settled yet and is marked as "unavailable". I've never used the CMA account before,...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 4064
Views: 571517

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

Trying to setup my Fidelity CMA to use with a credit card auto pay, but when I enter the routing and account numbers the credit card company says they can't link the account. They do say I can call and try to have them add it. Just wanted to find out if anyone else is having trouble using Fidelity CMA for credit card auto pay before I begin the transition from Ally Bank to Fidelity CMA. This is the first time I've tried setting up a "Direct Debit" using my Fidelity CMA. I'm using the 17 digit account number. (I double checked and did enter the correct routing and acct #s Fidelity provided) There is money in my Fidelity CMA, but it hasn't settled yet and is marked as "unavailable". I've never used the CMA account before, ...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't you factor tilt?
Replies: 882
Views: 47146

Re: Why don't you factor tilt?

No, because not all factors are equally relevant. While there are a multitude of factors, not all are statistically significant, but some are. The best available information shows value, size, profitability, and reinvestment seem to be the most statistically significant. It could be entirely coincidental, but that's unlikely. Considering all this, slanting towards these factors seems likely to improve returns, though it's not guaranteed. Guess after guess after guess. I know we all WANT economics to be a science like physics. But it's not. Not enough data points to make "statistically significant" conclusions. And the rules change decade to decade (Congress, SEC, globalization, etc.) so even the limited data points from the past ...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't you factor tilt?
Replies: 882
Views: 47146

Re: Why don't you factor tilt?

Jason Zweig had this to say today about why you shouldn’t factor tilt: Along with value, momentum, low volatility and several other characteristics, quality is one of the factors that investment researchers say have generated higher performance than the market as a whole in the past. It’s never certain, however, that investing in any particular one of these factors will provide a durably superior return in the future—especially given the perennial tendency of investors to jump in with both feet after a period of hot performance only to bail out when returns go cold. If, on the other hand, you own all the factors all the time, then your returns will converge toward those of an index fund that holds the entire stock market—which you could own...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really Bad Day - 09/13/2022
Replies: 141
Views: 22668

Re: Really Bad Day - 09/13/2022

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:26 pm
GP813 wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:26 pm It was worse intraday, somebody was buying into the close!
Well, it wasn’t me.
It was me. Sorry about that. Got buys set on automatic and was unaware of the daily happenings.
by Rowan Oak
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bad Things Happen to Good Stocks - By Jason Zweig
Replies: 2
Views: 1087

When Bad Things Happen to Good Stocks - By Jason Zweig

Behind WSJ paywall, but I was able to view on mobile without a subscription. Along with value, momentum, low volatility and several other characteristics, quality is one of the factors that investment researchers say have generated higher performance than the market as a whole in the past. It’s never certain, however, that investing in any particular one of these factors will provide a durably superior return in the future—especially given the perennial tendency of investors to jump in with both feet after a period of hot performance only to bail out when returns go cold. If, on the other hand, you own all the factors all the time, then your returns will converge toward those of an index fund that holds the entire stock market—which you cou...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case study Broker trade executions
Replies: 303
Views: 45588

Re: Case study Broker trade executions

I’ve had similar trade executions at Vanguard over the years. Usually (if not always) limit orders for VTI put in after close that then execute at the next day’s open. One that stands out most was a limit order put in Dec 24, 2018 (pretty big down day I think) after close that executed the next open significantly below what Vanguard showed the low to be for that day.
by Rowan Oak
Thu Jul 28, 2022 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Giant Distraction to the Business of Investing - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 30
Views: 3390

Re: A Giant Distraction to the Business of Investing - by Ben Carlson

Here's the video interview with Jack Bogle from 2014 talking about the decision he made in 2000: https://youtu.be/k6ra5POdsYg - He was around 70 yrs old at the time; - his heart was failing; - equity position 70-80%; - bonds yielding around 7%; - stocks yielding 1%; - stock market closer to 40x earnings than to 30; Quoted from the interview: Jack Bogle : I think it's impossible in the next decade, and I look at things in decade lengths, that stocks will outperform bonds. So returns on stocks ought to be, you know, pretty close to nominal and the returns on bonds gonna be 7% a year. That's doubling your money in a decade. And then I looked at him and said, "You know, Don, sometimes I sit here and worry why I have any money in stocks wha...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Giant Distraction to the Business of Investing - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 30
Views: 3390

A Giant Distraction to the Business of Investing - by Ben Carlson

I am reminded of the wonderful quote from the late-John Bogle when he said, “The stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing.”
Headlines are also a giant distraction to the business of investing.
If you could avoid paying attention to your own long-term investments that’s probably a win for most investors.
A Giant Distraction to the Business of Investing
Posted July 24, 2022 by Ben Carlson
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/0 ... investing/
by Rowan Oak
Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does “capitulate” at the bottom mean exactly?
Replies: 110
Views: 11654

Re: What does “capitulate” at the bottom mean exactly?

nisiprius wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:21 pm It means nothing. It's just stuff people say. It's a way of fitting a satisfying story to events that nobody understands.

It's circular. "Why hasn't it stopped plunging?" "Because there has not yet been capitulation." "How can you tell if capitulation has occurred?" "You can tell it has occurred when the stock market stops plunging." It's phlogiston. It's ectoplasm. It's the Vital Principle. You can't measure it. It's a name given to mysterious stuff that explains market movements. Some market timers who are in tune with market psychology can sense it. There's no "capitulation theory" to test.
Well said.

This is one of those words I get so tired of hearing during market downturns.
by Rowan Oak
Sun May 22, 2022 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst Years Ever in the Stock Market by Ben Carlson
Replies: 18
Views: 5014

The Worst Years Ever in the Stock Market by Ben Carlson

Interesting look at bad years and being a long term investor.
If the year were to end today, 2022 would rank as the 7th worst calendar year return for the U.S. stock market since just before the Great Depression.

The Worst Years Ever in the Stock Market
Posted May 22, 2022 by Ben Carlson

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/0 ... ck-market/
by Rowan Oak
Thu May 12, 2022 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bogleheads' Way
Replies: 161
Views: 15913

Re: The Bogleheads' Way

Rick Ferri wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:13 am Nothing has really changed.

It's the same 9 principles presented in a logical order. We added a 10th during this discussion (Live below your means), then an 11th, one of Jack's favorite lines (Stay the Course!).

All of these were inspired by Jack Bogle. I vote to go with it.

Rick Ferri
+1
by Rowan Oak
Mon May 09, 2022 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “distinction between the stock market and recessions” - Mike Piper
Replies: 5
Views: 762

“distinction between the stock market and recessions” - Mike Piper

It’s important to make a distinction between the stock market and recessions. For a few reasons, a recession happening over a particular period does not necessarily mean that the stock market would perform poorly over that period. Firstly, the stock market is concerned with how much profit businesses earn. Recessions are determined by changes in production. (Specifically, a recession is usually defined as a decline in GDP over two consecutive quarters.) Production and profitability are linked, but production changing by a certain percentage definitely doesn’t mean that profitability will change in the same direction by the same percentage. Second, GDP is concerned with a broader group of entities. The stock market is the market for publicl...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Apr 01, 2022 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When the Optimists are Too Pessimistic - by Nick Maggiulli
Replies: 2
Views: 801

When the Optimists are Too Pessimistic - by Nick Maggiulli

One area where this true is in retirement. The common cultural fear is to “run out of money in retirement”, but the evidence suggests that the opposite (i.e. growing your wealth in retirement) is far more likely. For example, Michael Kitces did an analysis where he discovered that retirees following the 4% rule in a 60/40 portfolio were more likely to 4x their wealth than deplete any of their principal after 30 years. In other words, if you started retirement with $1 million in a 60/40 portfolio and withdrew 4% a year, your chance of ending up with $4 million was higher than your chance of ending up with under $1 million after 30 years. https://ofdollarsanddata.com/when-the-optimists-are-too-pessimistic/ When the Optimists are Too Pessimis...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What adjustments are you making to your portfolio for 2022?
Replies: 141
Views: 11572

Re: What adjustments are you making to your portfolio for 2022?

tvubpwcisla wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 8:04 pm I am curious what adjustments you may be making to your portfolio heading into 2022?
Your current signature says it all:

The winning formula for success in investing is owning the entire stock market through an index fund, and then doing nothing. Just stay the course. - Jack Bogle
by Rowan Oak
Tue Dec 07, 2021 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: U.S. equities more overvalued than any time since the dot-com bubble
Replies: 599
Views: 41206

Re: Vanguard: U.S. equities more overvalued than any time since the dot-com bubble

Bogle took action in 2000 by taking risk off the table. You have even admitted to doing the same Bogle may have used valuations as part of his decision-making. He also said his life situation had changed, he was experiencing poor health, and wanted to conserve his money more than grow it. This ^^^ Jack Bogle's exact words : ...my heart was failing; my life was in danger. I wanted to make sure what kind of estate I had mostly my retirement plan here (Vanguard) was protected for my family so it was a personal financial decision greatly abetted by the fact that it made totally financial and economic sense. How many times in a lifetime does that come along. Here's the video interview with Jack Bogle from 2014 talking about the decision he made...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:17 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Proper etiquette: John Bogle or Jack Bogle?
Replies: 49
Views: 5026

Re: Proper etiquette: John Bogle or Jack Bogle?

The first time I met John C. "Jack" Bogle was in our first Bogleheads get-together with him in Miami in 2000. I had the privilege of driving him from the hotel to Taylor's condo, where the event was to take place. Needless to say, I realized I was in the presence of greatness and was intimidated, but I still tried to start a conversation with him. I knew that he played golf in the summer when he went to his lake getaway in the NY mountains, so I started by asking him about is golf game. After that, there was never a pregnant pause at any time during the 30-40 minutes it took to get to Taylor's condo. However, I constantly called him "Mr. Bogle" and he constantly asked me to call him "Jack". That was one of the...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying motivated in the middle of the game
Replies: 59
Views: 11575

Re: Staying motivated in the middle of the game

HenryG wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 6:43 am Yes, I've had similar feelings. I bookmarked and occasionally re-read Mr. Money Mustache's post "What it Feels Like to Become Rich":

https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/08 ... come-rich/

"...your financial boredom will probably continue. Keep up the good work..."
I've read Mr. Money Mustache for years, but missed this one. Thanks for the link.
by Rowan Oak
Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buying the Dip is a Terrible Investment Strategy - Nick Maggiulli
Replies: 36
Views: 9618

Why Buying the Dip is a Terrible Investment Strategy - Nick Maggiulli

While it can be intriguing to stockpile cash to buy the dip, the data above suggests that this strategy is unlikely to win out in the long run. If you happened to successfully buy the dip once, take your victory lap then get back to investing as soon as you can. Though you might think you have the ability to market time, I suggest attributing your trade to good luck and then moving on. The reason why Buy the Dip usually fails is simply because market dips, especially larger dips, are rare. Without dips to buy, Buy the Dip is just an 100% cash strategy, which is a terrible way to invest for the long term. More importantly, while large dips can generate larger returns, predicting them beforehand is near impossible. So be careful before waiti...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History's Seductive Beliefs - Morgan Housel
Replies: 33
Views: 4796

History's Seductive Beliefs - Morgan Housel

A seductive belief that exists in almost every field is that things will keep operating like they always have. It’s an almost necessary belief in a world where you have to base a prediction off something. But as Stanford professor Scott Sagan says, “things that have never happened before happen all the time.” All the time. In fact in most fields – especially business and investing – the most important events that changed everything and determined the majority of future outcomes are things that had never happened until they did. The most important economic events of the last century are probably the Great Depression, World War II, the 40-year collapse in interest rates, and globalization. And while each had analogous ancestors, anyone predi...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22339
Views: 1940605

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:37 pm You guys are always looking for reasons to explain why the market does what it does. Accept that you have no idea.
This is the key.