Search found 129 matches

by Rowan Oak
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for a prolonged bear market
Replies: 65
Views: 5373

Re: Strategy for a prolonged bear market

Liability Matching Portfolio able to withstand most any market fluctuation no matter how deep or how long. Built in Exit strategy. j Could you give details or refer me to a post where you have? Thank you! Research past threads and archives and books. Bernstein Liability Matching Portfolio Kitces Bo...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for a prolonged bear market
Replies: 65
Views: 5373

Re: Strategy for a prolonged bear market

Sandtrap wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:47 am
Liability Matching Portfolio able to withstand most any market fluctuation no matter how deep or how long.
Built in Exit strategy.
j
Could you give details or refer me to a post where you have? Thank you!
by Rowan Oak
Tue May 29, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reflections on my 25 years at Morningstar Inc - Christine Benz
Replies: 3
Views: 1373

Reflections on my 25 years at Morningstar Inc - Christine Benz

Great advice from Christine Benz after 25 years of experience:
On becoming a minimalist, fighting the financial complexity complex, and talking about the hard stuff. Reflections on my 25 years at Morningstar Inc
http://www.morningstar.com/articles/867 ... years.html
by Rowan Oak
Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stop Asking the Wrong Investing Questions
Replies: 4
Views: 1498

Stop Asking the Wrong Investing Questions

This article is a great reminder from Allan Roth.

"It’s not about the stock with the new high or if the market will crash"
by Allan Roth

https://www.aarp.org/money/investing/in ... tions.html
by Rowan Oak
Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner
Replies: 103
Views: 9534

Re: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner

If you're thinking about hiring a financial advisor I would read this article by Allan Roth first and seriously consider a hourly fee-only based financial advisor before all others.


The Ten Worst Mistakes Advisors Make
by Allan Roth,


More by Allan Roth:

https://muckrack.com/allan-roth/articles
by Rowan Oak
Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Use the 200-Day Moving Average as a Sell Signal" - Ben Carlson
Replies: 35
Views: 2548

Re: "Don't Use the 200-Day Moving Average as a Sell Signal" - Ben Carlson

I read an article (series of articles) where a young couple was buying like crazy in 2008/2009 during the firestorm. Instead of "timing" the market they held their nose & DCA into the firestorm... (Just the opposite of timing the market). When it was all said & done they walked out millionaires. Sc...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Use the 200-Day Moving Average as a Sell Signal" - Ben Carlson
Replies: 35
Views: 2548

"Don't Use the 200-Day Moving Average as a Sell Signal" - Ben Carlson

Investors need to be careful about blindly following any rule that gets them out of the market.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... ell-stocks
by Rowan Oak
Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard sends out erroneous "not enough money in settlement fund" notice]
Replies: 94
Views: 6606

Re: Vanguard "system issue" 3/27/18

I'm getting the same emails.

Concerning to know Vanguard can make such a mistake with something as fundamental as the settlement account balance.
by Rowan Oak
Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seasoned bogleheads repressing the thought of lower expected returns
Replies: 178
Views: 12542

Re: Seasoned bogleheads repressing the thought of lower expected returns

premiumbananas wrote:
Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:08 pm
Are seasoned bogleheads on this forum repressing the prospect of hardly positive real returns for the next decade, because its painful to acknowledge?
I don't know and I don't care.
by Rowan Oak
Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Making a Difference" by Jonathan Clements
Replies: 29
Views: 3518

Re: "Making a Difference" by Jonathan Clements

“Conventional wisdom: Investing is where the big money is made.” His point now, a new one, is that investing is, indeed, “a big, potential contributor to our wealth”, but wealth is also made by “improving other areas of our financial lives.” And he then develops that point. I guess you and I are ta...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Making a Difference" by Jonathan Clements
Replies: 29
Views: 3518

Re: "Making a Difference" by Jonathan Clements

Good, but just rehashing what we see here. It's all a repeat and sometimes that's a good thing. Saving Investors From Themselves by Jason Zweig I was once asked, at a journalism conference, how I defined my job. I said: My job is to write the exact same thing between 50 and 100 times a year in such...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Mar 03, 2018 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Making a Difference" by Jonathan Clements
Replies: 29
Views: 3518

"Making a Difference" by Jonathan Clements

Great article today by Jonathan Clements

Making a Difference
TRYING TO BEAT THE MARKET isn’t just a risky endeavor that will almost certainly end in failure. It’s also unnecessary and, arguably, an astonishing waste of money and time.
by Rowan Oak
Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I afford to move to a lower paying career?
Replies: 53
Views: 5108

Re: Can I afford to move to a lower paying career?

These threads are one reason why people make fun of this forum. How out of touch do you have to be to wonder if you can move to a lower paying career when you're already financially independent? By my calculations, you could take a career where you had to pay money to do it. And then there are peop...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "If there were ironclad rules, we would all be following them."
Replies: 6
Views: 1268

Re: "Be Terrified"

Clickbait title, followed by an extremely drawn out “nobody knows nuthin” article. Yawn... It's all a repeat. Saving Investors From Themselves by Jason Zweig I was once asked, at a journalism conference, how I defined my job. I said: My job is to write the exact same thing between 50 and 100 times ...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "If there were ironclad rules, we would all be following them."
Replies: 6
Views: 1268

"If there were ironclad rules, we would all be following them."

http://thereformedbroker.com/2018/02/11/be-terrified/ Be Terrified Posted February 11, 2018 by Joshua M Brown If there were ironclad rules, we would all be following them. If there were inter-market relationships we could set our watches by, everyone would always know what time it was. If there were...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard leaders weigh in on the outlook for the stock market"
Replies: 5
Views: 995

"Vanguard leaders weigh in on the outlook for the stock market"

Tim Buckley and Greg Davis with some advice today.

Listen to the last thing Tim Buckley says at the end.

https://youtu.be/5auDFQzj3zY
by Rowan Oak
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 15173

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Tim Buckley today gave his advice in this video. Listen to the last thing he says at the end.

https://youtu.be/5auDFQzj3zY
by Rowan Oak
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 15173

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

In a video released today Joe Davis of Vanguard says the chance of a correction this year (at least a 10% decline) is 70% "the highest in 15 years" he's been at Vanguard. Sometimes it seems they do all but say, "rebalance NOW to your chosen stock allocation!". Joe goes on to explain why trying to t...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds
Replies: 87
Views: 8629

Re: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds

I am kind of considering selling, maybe it’s silly, but my funds are newly in the market for only 1-2 months. Scary time when they said interest rate goes up and bond yield rise then stock crash? Why is that? Isn’t stock hedge inflation? Could anyone explain why the market so panic? Frankly, if a 2...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 13591

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

I think it is important to read pieces written by people that you disagree with. I would read Paul Krugman if his articles were more objective and frankly more humble. I am sure he is a thoughtful and intelligent guy but he has gotten to the point where he just dismisses those who disagree with him...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 13591

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

bottlecap wrote:
Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:04 am
Man, how many posts like this are we going to have a day? If they end up all being right, I guess it's proof you can time the market...

JT
Yes, lots of noise these days. Stay-the-course.
by Rowan Oak
Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller: Stock Market Like 1928
Replies: 57
Views: 6940

Re: "Stay the Course"

...If I remember correctly, didn’t Bogle in 1999 change his asset allocation based on high valuations?... The really interesting thing--unfortunately I can no longer find the actual quotation, is that in 1999--I think it was in 1999--in the annual reports for some? all? Vanguard funds, Bogle's lett...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just Getting Started
Replies: 13
Views: 793

Re: Just Getting Started

Fantastic Taylor thanks! I'll start with the little then get the other if that's not enough, between that and this forum. I agree Mr Bogle's Little Book of Common Sense Investing is all you need, but if you decide to read more I would begin with these: "If You Can" - William Bernstein, Ph.D., M.D. ...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Doesn't seem like people respond to portfolio assessments like they did a few years ago.
Replies: 105
Views: 11096

Re: Doesn't seem like people respond to portfolio assessments like they did a few years ago.

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:42 pm
Rowan Oak wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:37 pm
I have followed retiredjg for a long time just reading the countless posts he has made to help others.
"She".
Thank you
by Rowan Oak
Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 244
Views: 24069

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

For the record, I think that both buy-and-hold and trend following can meet investors' goals very well. They both have their pros and cons. I think investors who can truly endure the occasional big drawdown of buy-and-hold should probably go that route. But I don't think the evidence is in favor at...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 244
Views: 24069

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

For the record, I think that both buy-and-hold and trend following can meet investors' goals very well. They both have their pros and cons. I think investors who can truly endure the occasional big drawdown of buy-and-hold should probably go that route. But I don't think the evidence is in favor at...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What’s Wrong With Value?"
Replies: 6
Views: 764

Re: "What’s Wrong With Value?"

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:30 pm
As Bogle concludes, buy the whole market. The end.
Yes!
by Rowan Oak
Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What’s Wrong With Value?"
Replies: 6
Views: 764

Re: "What’s Wrong With Value?"

I agree. Definitely not a "sure thing". His explanation is that growth is "dominated by tech (38%) and consumer discretionary (18%) stocks, which make up 56% of the portfolio. Tech and consumer discretionary make up just 15% of the value index. This index is dominated by financials (27%) and healthc...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 244
Views: 24069

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

Just interested to try get some open minded, non-dogmatic, opinions on how bogleheads may possibly be deluding themselves (ourselves) or be blind-sighted by certain economic conditions ? Dudley....here is some food for thought. Dogma: The Efficient Markets Hypothesis....it could be wrong. Dogma: Th...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What’s Wrong With Value?"
Replies: 6
Views: 764

"What’s Wrong With Value?"

The value premium exists because investors extrapolate too far. It works the same way that momentum does, only in the opposite direction. In my opinion, the excess returns that investors have earned over the looooong run are driven by human behavior, which cannot be arbed away. But this is a risk p...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: there is nothing special about value, so why bet on it?
Replies: 26
Views: 2710

Re: Bogle: there is nothing special about value, so why bet on it?

...Mr. Bogle argues ...: ...back in 1993, I decided investors should be entitled to a choice between growth and value. It had nothing to do with factor investing. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2018/01/22/uneasy-lies-the-head-that-wears-a-crown-a-conversation-with-jack-bogle I'm confu...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: there is nothing special about value, so why bet on it?
Replies: 26
Views: 2710

Re: Bogle: there is nothing special about value, so why bet on it?

How does Mr, Bogle explain that fact that from 1972-present (during the period he claims things have been all over the place) the CAGR or small value stocks is a full 4.5% higher than for small growth stocks? He doesn't try to. Right, because it refutes his argument. Small value stocks may or may n...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: there is nothing special about value, so why bet on it?
Replies: 26
Views: 2710

Re: Bogle: there is nothing special about value, so why bet on it?

How does Mr, Bogle explain that fact that from 1972-present (during the period he claims things have been all over the place) the CAGR or small value stocks is a full 4.5% higher than for small growth stocks? He doesn't try to. Jack Bogle: "The biggest mistake investors make is looking backward at ...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The regular investor can now trade the stock market 24 hours a day with TD Ameritrade
Replies: 48
Views: 3414

Re: The regular investor can now trade the stock market 24 hours a day with TD Ameritrade

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:23 pm
triceratop wrote:Taylor, there must be some misunderstanding. This will allow one to trade at night. If day trading is for losers, then what does that make night traders?
Double losers.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Great answer!
by Rowan Oak
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: am I crazy to do a lump sum investment with my entire retirement in this current stock market?
Replies: 47
Views: 6305

Re: am I crazy to do a lump sum investment with my entire retirement in this current stock market?

SierraG: Welcome to the Bogleheads Forum! I plan on reading Boglehead's Guide to Investing, Boglehead's Guide to Retirement and White Coat Investing. Read any one of these books and you will have reliable answers to most of your questions. Best wishes. Taylor I would add one more book to that excel...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: there is nothing special about value, so why bet on it?
Replies: 26
Views: 2710

Re: Bogle: there is nothing special about value, so why bet on it?

Interesting long interview with Jack Bogle by Laurence Siegel. Among other things Mr. Bogle argues that there is nothing special about the value premium, as it has been arbitraged away: Investors should have no confidence at all that value will win in the long run, for the obvious reason. Once ever...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reassess your investments before the next panic"
Replies: 1
Views: 495

"Reassess your investments before the next panic"

Reassess your investments before the next panic By Jason Zweig If you think stocks can’t fall by at least 50% again, you are wrong. If you think you (or anybody else) can know exactly when that will happen, you are crazy. And if you think you won’t overreact when it does, you had better test that b...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Simple Beats Complex"
Replies: 14
Views: 2629

Re: "Why Simple Beats Complex"

Got it. So if you had no account constraints or tax considerations it would look something like this (allocated accordingly): U.S. Stock funds : Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX/VTI) Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral (VSIAX/VBR) International funds : Vanguard D...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Doesn't seem like people respond to portfolio assessments like they did a few years ago.
Replies: 105
Views: 11096

Re: Doesn't seem like people respond to portfolio assessments like they did a few years ago.

In my last job, we maintained a large database and provided extensive, searchable documentation for users. Yet we regularly got questions from users which made it obvious that they had not bothered to even do a rudimentary review of the documentation before sending in their questions. I get the sam...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some alternative, numerical proxies for risk besides volatility?
Replies: 29
Views: 1616

Re: What are some alternative, numerical proxies for risk besides volatility?

Academic papers often refer to volatility and risk as if they are the same thing, although volatility does not capture the whole picture. Assets that have high volatility tend to be more risky, but that is not always the case. There is no perfect measure for risk, but what are some alternative nume...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3802

Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

2008 was a financial panic, but not an unprecedented one, and putting things in perspective a little bit made things pretty easy to deal with. Better man then me. I found it extremely stressful, but since I was young (still think I am) I knew it didn't matter in the long run. I would say those that...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 379
Views: 63774

Re: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?

It was interesting reading some of the posts back in 2008. In many cases not quite the level of resolve to “stay the course” compared to now after a 10 year bull market. In terms of lessons learned for me (some of these took a few years to sink in) 1. Diversification doesn’t always work. Apart from...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "nobody knows what’s going on" - "A Few Charts and a Few Thoughts"
Replies: 1
Views: 378

"nobody knows what’s going on" - "A Few Charts and a Few Thoughts"

Good one today from Michael Batnick: A Few Charts and a Few Thoughts Posted January 22, 2018 by Michael Batnick The biggest takeaway for the average investor who is trying to figure out what is going on and what they should do with their money is this: nobody knows what’s going on . Nobody knows whe...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Simple Beats Complex"
Replies: 14
Views: 2629

Re: "Why Simple Beats Complex"

See also https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2018/01/complexity-bias/ Complexity bias is a logical fallacy that leads us to give undue credence to complex concepts. Faced with two competing hypotheses, we are likely to choose the most complex one. That's usually the option with the most assumptions an...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: jlcollinsnh - Stock Series
Replies: 14
Views: 2223

Re: jlcollinsnh - Stock Series

So I originally started learning about financial stuffs and investing here at this forum. I am forever grateful that this place exists. From this platform I found "early retirement" and "frugal life" type forums/bloggers. JL Collins is referenced a lot in the early retirement community. I find his ...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: jlcollinsnh - Stock Series
Replies: 14
Views: 2223

Re: jlcollinsnh - Stock Series

kksmom wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:57 am
The simple path to wealth is great book

Here is a short video by the author re FU money
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eikbQPldhPY
Agreed. I have edited the original post to include a link.
by Rowan Oak
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: jlcollinsnh - Stock Series
Replies: 14
Views: 2223

jlcollinsnh - Stock Series

A very Boglehead approach to investing and very well organized. A great place to start learning from the ground up. jlcollinsnh - Stock Series Also, his book based on the Stock Series: "The Simple Path to Wealth" by JL Collins "The Simple Path to Wealth" -- A Gem From his Manifesto : Here are some o...