Search found 380 matches

by Rowan Oak
Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage to prepay or not prepay
Replies: 81
Views: 5856

Re: Mortgage to prepay or not prepay

How about splitting it and build both sides of your personal balance sheet. That is one half to taxable investing and one half to paying down the mortgage. This was my approach. Maybe not exactly half, but each month money went to paying off the mortgage and my taxable brokerage account. Worked fin...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 27165

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

One thing I notice is that investing strategies tend to have a foundation in the investor's sense of identity. US-only investors are proud patriots, and international-market-cap investors are proud cosmopolitans. Factor investors are proudly math/finance-theory-literate, and vanilla-index investors...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How did your Windows 10 upgrade go?
Replies: 60
Views: 3994

Re: How did your Windows 10 upgrade go?

Looks like I have to buy the Home edition for $129 Can't one get an entire Windows 10 computer for less than that nowadays? No. But again, there is no reason to pay if one has Windows 7. Microsoft never made the free upgrade to Windows 10 unobtainable despite threatening to do so. I've bought quite...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Sep 21, 2019 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Individual Stock Investing Increases Risk
Replies: 105
Views: 6172

Re: Larry Swedroe: Individual Stock Investing Increases Risk

Last I checked, I trailed the Total Stock Market Index by about 1% over 15 years and the Vanguard Value Index by about 0.20% over that same time period. As I posted above, I have losses on only 4 of my 22 stocks. Don't chalk this up to brilliance or good looks, I just did the prudent things when pi...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DCA vs. Lump Sum- an interesting analysis
Replies: 62
Views: 3773

The Cost of Waiting - Why It’s Better to Invest Conservatively Now Than to Average-In (blog post by Nick Maggiulli)

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] My results show that any stock/bond portfolio combination (even a 100% bond portfolio!) would have, on average, outperformed a 24-month DCA into an all-stock portfolio. If that statement doesn’t shock you, let me make it more concrete... https:...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheets
Replies: 77
Views: 6334

Re: Spreadsheets

No spreadsheet. I sometimes use a calculator to figure stock/bond % to know if I need to rebalance. Vanguard does this for you, but not without delay. When I see a loss in taxable I will usually harvest the loss. Very rarely look at or think about performance, because I use The Three-Fund Portfolio ...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What does “Stay the Course” mean exactly?
Replies: 35
Views: 3157

Re: What does “Stay the Course” mean exactly?

I don't think he was suggesting to be obdurate. Bogle himself was a market timer. For extra credit, what are you going to do if TBM yields -1%? Are you going to keep plowing money into it? :thumbsup And for those that try to claim that Bogle didn't time the market, here's what he said back in 2008 ...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 72
Views: 6608

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

:thumbsup Sadly, appeals to authority, especially Bogle, are very common around here. Bogleheads.org Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle Inspired by. Jack didn't have a monopoly on truth in finance. It's important to note that this (appeal to authority) fallacy should not be used to dismiss the...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 72
Views: 6608

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

I fail to understand why we need to know Tyler9000's true identity in order to judge his work as an author. Seems to me that those are unrelated. Either his work stands on its own or it doesn't, anything else is just a fallacious appeal to authority. :thumbsup Sadly, appeals to authority, especiall...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 72
Views: 6608

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

I fail to understand why we need to know Tyler9000's true identity in order to judge his work as an author. Seems to me that those are unrelated. Either his work stands on its own or it doesn't, anything else is just a fallacious appeal to authority. :thumbsup Sadly, appeals to authority, especiall...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How old is your cellphone?
Replies: 168
Views: 9495

Re: How old is your cellphone?

greg24 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:16 pm
I also have a Windows 7 machine at home.

No concerns about security.
Concern should begin January 15, 2020. Or simply disconnect from the internet.
by Rowan Oak
Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1904
Views: 198717

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The stock market is going to touching the new high again, why are people still talking about recession? Just don't make sense :annoyed When else would a recession happen? Isn't it a fact that every recession has happened after the stock market has reached a new high? I believe s/he means that many ...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bike head/rear lights
Replies: 31
Views: 1745

Re: Bike head/rear lights

A strobing bright front light is extremely annoying and possibly disorienting to oncoming pedestrians, bikers, and probably drivers as well. You mean that it makes the observer of a strobing bright light THINK and WATCH OUT! That's EXACTLY what I want to happen. I agree. Annoy the hell out of oncom...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Warren Buffett's Investing Plan for His Family: Why It's a Good Plan for Your Family, Too"
Replies: 78
Views: 8339

Re: "Warren Buffett's Investing Plan for His Family: Why It's a Good Plan for Your Family, Too"

Warren Buffett has made it clear his advise is buying and holding forever a low cost market cap weighted index fund, tuning out the noise and holding enough short term treasuries so you are comfortable for your needs. The 10% he has made very clear on multiple occasions, is merely a starting point ...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Warren Buffett's Investing Plan for His Family: Why It's a Good Plan for Your Family, Too"
Replies: 78
Views: 8339

Re: "Warren Buffett's Investing Plan for His Family: Why It's a Good Plan for Your Family, Too"

I wouldn't base my estate planning based upon an off the cuff comment by Buffett. Me neither. Expanding that a bit, I would not base any aspect of my finances on what any one person, regardless as to how much I admired and trusted that person, said. That includes Bogle himself. I've based all my in...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Warren Buffett's Investing Plan for His Family: Why It's a Good Plan for Your Family, Too"
Replies: 78
Views: 8339

Re: "Warren Buffett's Investing Plan for His Family: Why It's a Good Plan for Your Family, Too"

Bogleheads: The Motley Fool is featuring an article by Keith Speights in which he talks about Warren Buffett's Investing Plan for his wife. Many forum readers will not be surprised to learn it is primarily Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund. I slightly prefer the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund but...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund people how are you feeling?
Replies: 112
Views: 13375

Re: 3 fund people how are you feeling?

I am wondering what you are thinking about your choice with the current state of economic things? (what ever that means to you). I own the The Three-Fund Portfolio so I don't have to worry about the "current state of economic things". Are you simply ignoring the chatter? Yes. Thinking of tilting so...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 13349

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

None of us know what the market's returns will be going forward, so we cannot know whether those unknown returns will be sufficient to meet our needs And yet there seems to be a very common belief that those returns somehow will be adequate. I really don't understand why this belief exists. Optimism.
by Rowan Oak
Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 13349

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

Optimization in investing, and in the markets in which we participate, involves so many variables that optimization is likely impossible and pursuit of it past a certain point is time poorly spent, and may actually be counterproductive. This is my opinion as well. I believe many people on this boar...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 13349

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

Beating an index over time is actually pretty easy if you're willing to take on more risk than the index takes and able to be patient with your strategy. Beating an index over time is actually very difficult even if you're willing to take on more risk than the index takes and able to be patient wit...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 13349

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

Beating an index over time is actually pretty easy if you're willing to take on more risk than the index takes and able to be patient with your strategy. Beating an index over time is actually very difficult even if you're willing to take on more risk than the index takes and able to be patient wit...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 13349

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

I think the word optimize implies that there is room for improvement. I got to a point that I realized "good enough" is the optimal portfolio for me and in the long run will probably outperform the portfolio that is always in some state of optimization. After many years of investing having spent the...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best secure email to use instead of gmail?
Replies: 70
Views: 9642

Re: Best secure email to use instead of gmail?

... Sometimes people throw out the term "security" when they are really more concerned about privacy. I would think saying "security" includes confidentiality/privacy. I agree and it should. With gmail/goolge since you are the product there's just not going to be privacy between you and google, but...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Aug 19, 2019 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Battery powered lawn mower
Replies: 54
Views: 3531

Re: Battery powered lawn mower

I've been using the EGO from Home Depot for 5 years. Loved it enough to buy a few other of their tools - they all share the same batteries. An electric mower that works well enough is heavenly compared to gas. I bought the "EGO POWER+ 21" MOWER WITH 5.0AH BATTERY AND RAPID CHARGER - LM2101" after a...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?
Replies: 129
Views: 7298

Re: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?

The regret I am trying to minimize the most is the regret of wasting my time. The more complicated the strategy the more time you waste has been my experience over that last 25 years or so of investing.
by Rowan Oak
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 28390

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

But if an investor cannot tolerate underperforming TSM, then they should just stick with TSM. Some investors can tolerate underperforming TSM but have no reason to allow for that possibility. As soon as a person entertains deviation from TSM, there is an ever expanding universe of "great ideas" tha...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you "lock" computers in your home?
Replies: 77
Views: 5831

Re: Do you "lock" computers in your home?

*unlocks computer* I use full disk encryption on every drive, including removable drives. And I lock the computer when I'm not physically sitting at it. The main reason I lock it is that I'm required to do so at work, even if I'm just getting coffee or retrieving a printout. So it's easier to do it...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fallacy of Dollar Cost Averaging
Replies: 101
Views: 9086

Re: The fallacy of Dollar Cost Averaging

but this forum is literally filled with investors who maintain a less than 100% allocation to stocks primarily due to fear that they would panic sell if the stock market tanked. I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "literally filled". Does it mean most investors on the Bogleheads forum? Are you ta...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12340
Views: 2126674

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Hmm, does anybody think today might be an RBD for some things? :twisted: Folks, that's what an RBD followed by a good day looks like. This doesn't mean that things won't tank tomorrow. Nor does it mean that the next RBD will be as nice. One cannot predict the future, but did you see how easy it was...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gas oven and the smell of gas each time first turned on
Replies: 19
Views: 1003

Re: Gas oven and the smell of gas each time first turned on

Thank you everyone for the helpful responses. I tried turning on "broil" (to this point I had only tried bake) and there was no gas smell in the room, but I also turned on the exhaust fan which I previously had not done. I will test broil without fan on. Based on some of your responses I think I'm g...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gas oven and the smell of gas each time first turned on
Replies: 19
Views: 1003

Gas oven and the smell of gas each time first turned on

Recently purchased a new GE gas range and oven and have never owned a gas oven before. Each time the oven is first turned on there is the smell of natural gas in the kitchen for around 5-8 minutes then it goes away. I can see that the oven burner has lit and the temperature is going up, but the smel...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Placing all portfolio BOND holdings in Roth IRA?
Replies: 23
Views: 1846

Re: Placing all portfolio BOND holdings in Roth IRA?

First, you are 21 years old and should not be invested in any bonds at all. You should be 100% equities. "Should not" and "should" are very strong and possibly inappropriate words to say to another investor, especially a new investor. You know nothing about this poster's risk tolerance. 100% equiti...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: trip to Greece (Athens and vicinity)
Replies: 21
Views: 1707

Re: trip to Greece (Athens and vicinity)

New from Rick Steves: "Greek Islands: Santorini, Mykonos, and Rhodes"
https://youtu.be/HZOuDhwzsq0

this one, also from Rick Steves, is pretty old, but still may be useful: "Athens and Side-Trips"
https://youtu.be/lrvD3NS-tA8
by Rowan Oak
Sun Jun 30, 2019 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Landlord Here! Your Top Tips to include in a Lease?
Replies: 52
Views: 4401

Re: New Landlord Here! Your Top Tips to include in a Lease?

Hi all! I am renting out my first property. It's a condo. The renters will be a mother, daughter, and small dog. What are your top tips to include in the lease? (Besides the standard language. I am using the standard association of Realtors form. ) Thanks! This is a good starting point. 1. Notice t...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Jun 28, 2019 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 76140

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

You want the big returns AND avoid the big losses. If I can achieve similar returns but avoid the big drawdowns (i.e. -50%) of buy-and-hold, I'll be content. Some claim this to be a pipe dream, but folks such as Paul Merriman have done it for decades. He has 50% of his money doing what I do, and 50...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 76140

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

BHs eschew it because they believe it conflicts with the BH philosophy, despite Bogle himself not always adhering to that philosophy. Here's the video interview with Jack Bogle from 2014 talking about the decision he made in 2000 giving context for the above statement: https://youtu.be/k6ra5POdsYg ...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 76140

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

The author of that post "He also provides an excellent overview to why trend following works" referenced in the OP was mentioned today in a post by Ben Carlson (A wealth of common sense): Will Trend-Following Continue to Disappoint? pseudonymous blogger, Jesse Livermore (Philosophical Economics), wr...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 76140

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Interesting from Wes Gray today (Alpha Architect) Trend Following: The Epitome of No Pain, No Gain What we find in this analysis is the following: Trend-following “works” in the sense that one has historically been able to capture a vast majority of the upside in a stock market, while simultaneously...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1904
Views: 198717

Re: "S&P 500 Index closes at record high"

Bogleheads: This afternoon the S&P 500 Index closed at an all-time record high Strong evidence that "Stay-the-Course" works! Thank you Mr. Bogle. Best wishes. Taylor Yes! And keep it simple with a 1-3 fund portfolio of low cost, broadly diversified index funds and then get on with your life.
by Rowan Oak
Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 76140

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Yes. Made me think of what you've said about trend following when I read it.
by Rowan Oak
Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 76140

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

This is from Michael Batnick with Ritholtz Wealth Management. They use a trend following strategy for clients. One of the challenges with tactical portfolio management, particularly with trend following, is that whipsaws are part of the deal. They can only be avoided by data mined backtests. In the ...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to Peer (P2P) Lending - What are the realistic returns?
Replies: 30
Views: 3306

Re: Peer to Peer (P2P) Lending - What are the realistic returns?

If you are an accredited investor, there are much better options for Alternatives. Some hard money lending funds have a preferred return greater than 10% with fairly good diversification and a reasonably safe LTV. Yes, hard money lending for accredited investors seems like a solid investment. Jim, ...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Feb 27, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Extraordinary Upside Potential Of Sequence Of Return Risk In Retirement - Michael Kitces
Replies: 91
Views: 7690

The Extraordinary Upside Potential Of Sequence Of Return Risk In Retirement - Michael Kitces

After all, at a 4% initial withdrawal rate, the odds of nearly depleting the portfolio are equal to the odds of growing it by more than 800%(!), and even at a 5% withdrawal rate, the odds of depleting the portfolio early are equal to the odds of tripling the retiree’s starting principal on top of t...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much is too much capital loss carryover?
Replies: 25
Views: 2093

Re: How much is too much capital loss carryover?

I'm still using up mid-6-figure capital loss carryover from 2008-2009. That's because I am withdrawing from my taxable portfolio to pay some expenses. Since return of capital is tax-free and realized capital gains get offset by the carryover, I have plenty of no- and low-tax space to do Roth conver...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?
Replies: 133
Views: 8813

Re: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?

I Buy, Hold, and Rebalance. I did a good bit of tax loss harvesting and rebalancing in December 2018 including 12/24. I have already rebalanced again from Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund into Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund. As of 2/15/2019 I’m almost exactly at my chosen asset allocati...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another frugality/contentment post from Morgan Housel
Replies: 28
Views: 2572

Re: Another frugality/contentment post from Morgan Housel

Yes, for me the quote is simply about financial independence.
by Rowan Oak
Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another frugality/contentment post from Morgan Housel
Replies: 28
Views: 2572

Re: Another frugality/contentment post from Morgan Housel

I like what he says here: The hard part is becoming satisfied with spending less. It’s not easy. It’s a behavioral trait, not analytical skill, and investing attracts more of the latter. Some are better at it than others, but virtually everyone is primed to at least assume they’ll be happier if they...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12340
Views: 2126674

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

With the market looking much better who here is thinking of getting back into the market? The crash in December was brutal. Scared many (including me). 1. I was never out of the market. 2. I rebalanced INTO equities in December. 3. Things are up so much, I hit a rebalancing band and have started to...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 76140

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Thank you for posting about your process. Will be following along.