Search found 300 matches

by Rowan Oak
Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 53
Views: 2413

Re: Return vs. Volatility?

siamond wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:50 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:30 pm
Lesson learned: Increased return is much more important than reduced volatility.
Amen to that! Which is exactly why nobody should obsess about the Sharpe ratio or derivatives.
True and simple.
by Rowan Oak
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Motley Fools is now for fools only?.....RIP
Replies: 30
Views: 6573

Re: "False Profits"

Bogleheads: Jason Zweig, one of the wisest columnists on Wall Street, is a friend of the Bogleheads who has participated in our annual conferences. In 1999 Jason wrote a revealing article about the Motley Fools . This is the link: False Profits . Best wishes. Taylor Amazing how well Jason Zweig's a...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 57
Views: 4681

Re: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]

I think it's just a way for people to justify what they want to do, that being not invest in Internationals because of poor recent performance. If they were outpacing US stocks, we wouldn't be hearing this kind of talk. I don't know. Jack Bogle has had this same opinion for many years. I think in T...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 57
Views: 4681

Re: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc

Agreed. Can the mods look into this? If it is the author or someone connected to them posting these repeated quotes about this random individual trying to score some new followers/ buyers it should be prevented. This is silly. JL Collins is a blogger whose audience is novice investors. He writes ab...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 57
Views: 4681

Re: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]

This seems so obvious to me that I’m not sure what someone like JL Collins, or Jack Bogle for that matter, is missing when they make claims like this. I doubt Jack Bogle missed anything. Why? Because he knows everything about everything? He deserves all the respect in the world for what he accompli...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 146
Views: 19014

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

No, that advice is absolutely correct. The trick is for investors of any age to make adjustments to the portfolio BEFORE times of extreme financial stress so that they can indeed "tune out the noise" during the next 30%-40%-50% crash. Because it WILL happen. We don't know when, but there will be an...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 57
Views: 4681

Re: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]

onourway wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:54 pm


This seems so obvious to me that I’m not sure what someone like JL Collins, or Jack Bogle for that matter, is missing when they make claims like this.
I doubt Jack Bogle missed anything.
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS
Replies: 50
Views: 8471

Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:12 pm
JupiterJones wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:25 pm
Sounds like a bad '70s movie.

"In a world where gangs run wild and justice turns a blind eye, one priest must put down his collar and make a stand. Charles Bronson is Father Brock McSteele in... DEATH CROSS!"
I think you're mistaken.

That sounds like an AWESOME '70s movie!
+1
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 57
Views: 4681

Re: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc

In one of the interviews with JL Collins on Youtube he makes an argument against the need to explicitly include international funds or stocks in your portfolio, since broad-based index funds include big "U.S." companies with significant international business. JL Collins isn't the first person to s...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8583
Views: 1676546

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I hear these stories, but still believe it's unsmart to take risks you don't need to take. Sometimes we win, sometimes we lose. A few people have gotten rich taking chances in the stock market. A lot more have gotten poor. Everyone who was able to buy and hold in the past is rich today. If a "lot m...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Out of Stocks to Pay Off Mortgage
Replies: 73
Views: 5028

Re: Out of Stocks to Pay Off Mortgage

A risk-free return of 4.625% is pretty good.

Ask yourself this question: if your house was paid off today would you go borrow against it to invest in the stock market?

Then there's that whole equity risk premium thing.
by Rowan Oak
Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Net Worth Question - Current Value or Personal Contribution?
Replies: 31
Views: 2083

Re: Need help understanding Compound Interest

Thank you, nisiprius. There's something about the way you write that leads me to a deeper understanding no matter how much I already think I understand.
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Market Volatility
Replies: 29
Views: 2084

Re: Current Market Volatility

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:17 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:52 am
There is nothing unusual about the current market volatility.
:thumbsup

There appears to be a lot of recency bias among many investors today.
This is an evergreen statement.
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm up 5% ytd and I will take it
Replies: 55
Views: 6026

Re: I'm up 5% ytd and I will take it

Well this morning I checked my vanguard account. I tend to do this at the beginning of each month because the performance tool selection criteria is by month. At any rate according to my calculations I am up 5%. I checked the S&P 500 and it is 3.24%. I am 90 / 10 with only U.S stocks and tilts towa...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Market Volatility
Replies: 29
Views: 2084

Re: Current Market Volatility

Hi Bogleheads! Wondering if any of you are adjusting your investing strategies given the current market volatility? Are you staying the course, keeping more in cash, investing in alternatives, etc. Thanks! Are you asking because you are considering these other options? If so, I would write down the...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good newsletters for speculative investments?
Replies: 14
Views: 916

Re: Good newsletters for speculative investments?

Ask yourself: Am I an investor, or am I a speculator? An investor is a person who owns business and holds it forever and enjoys the returns that U.S. businesses, and to some extent global businesses, have earned since the beginning of time. Speculation is betting on price. Speculation has no place ...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads Greatest Hits
Replies: 27
Views: 3654

Re: Bogleheads Greatest Hits

You posted your own "greatest hits"? Shouldn't your example be to pick what you consider to be "greatest hits" of other Bogleheads?

I suggest going to nisiprius' profile page daily and clicking Search user’s posts. Literally thousands of classics.
by Rowan Oak
Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $724k in debt and I want to buy a home.
Replies: 54
Views: 6470

Re: $724k in debt and I want to buy a home.

Watty wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:22 am
If you have not seen it already you should check out the White Coat Investor website which is run by a doctor who is a regular poster here. They may have a better perspective on your situation.

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/
Yes. This.
by Rowan Oak
Sun Nov 25, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard now supports Yubikey 5 and 5C
Replies: 16
Views: 1964

Re: Vanguard now supports Yubikey 5 and 5C

if someone wanted to hack my account -- they won't have the key -- but they could still get in via password and SMS assuming they have hacked my phone. so -- it looks to me like the key is meaningless. To be clear, "hacked my phone" doesn't mean they need physical access to your phone. The reason w...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Nov 24, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Top ten recommended books on personal investing
Replies: 26
Views: 3004

Re: Top ten recommended books on personal investing

I recently read a finance blogger had read over 150 books on personal investing. That's impressive! I am asking for your top ten favorites. I am probably the "blogger": He has read over 250 Investing books I am currently reading The Little Book of Common Investing by Mr. Bogle. What books on person...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Nov 24, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You’re Not As Rich As You Think You Are, And That’s Okay
Replies: 20
Views: 6028

You’re Not As Rich As You Think You Are, And That’s Okay

Two very good articles by Jim Dahle (The White Coat Investor) As relevant now as when first written. You’re Not As Rich As You Think You Are, And That’s Okay Should You “Take Some Money Off The Table?” You’re never as rich as you think you are in a bull market and never quite as poor as you think yo...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Nov 24, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stay The Course" by John Bogle
Replies: 32
Views: 5830

Re: "Stay The Course" by John Bogle

Got it. Thanks
by Rowan Oak
Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Name is Paul, and I am a Larimore Boglehead
Replies: 19
Views: 4576

Re: My Name is Paul, and I am a Larimore Boglehead

What is a Larimore Boglehead and how does that differ from other sub sect and offshoot Boglehead tribes? Taylor (Larimore) has consistently advocated the 3 fund portfolio, and simplicity. No timing, no factors, no mo, no trend following. Paul I also consider myself a Larimore Boglehead as he is the...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Online Game Teaches Investing
Replies: 2
Views: 380

New Online Game Teaches Investing

New Online Game Teaches Investing
November 16, 2018
Allan Roth
It was about time! Late last month, Next Gen Personal Finance (NGPF) launched a free online game to actually teach high school students how to invest.
by Rowan Oak
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 6095

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

Apparently Ben Carlson has gotten a lot of feedback on this piece. He's already working on a follow-up with more scenarios. Also, he got together with his colleagues to discuss on video. Here's a link to the YouTube video: https://youtu.be/SwGu2AjKA0s
by Rowan Oak
Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 6095

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

Dottie57 wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:57 pm
What is a balanced portfolio here?
He uses "60/40 portfolios consisting of 60% in U.S. stocks (S&P 500) and 40% in 5-year treasuries. " in his example.
by Rowan Oak
Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 6095

"What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

Interesting blog post today by Ben Carlson. Similar to his "What If You Only Invested at Market Peaks?" from a few years ago. Retiring just before a stock market peak could be ruinous to your financial health but it doesn’t have to be. A balanced portfolio was able to hold up using a simple set of a...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Things You See During Every Market Correction
Replies: 5
Views: 1508

Things You See During Every Market Correction

From the peak close in late-September through the week before Halloween, the S&P 500 fell around 10% for a quick little correction. Over the ensuing 10 trading days stocks have now bounced 6%. Does this mean the correction is now over? Was it simply another flash correction? I don’t know and neithe...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 7052

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

"Diversification" is a strategy to mitigate risk. Factor investors intentionally increase their risk in hopes of chasing returns they believe are represented in some risk/return factor model. I seriously doubt that all "factor investors" are doing things more similarly than all Boglehead investors ...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 7052

Re: Market-Weight in U.S. Stocks

... Just over 50% of the market cap of the US Total Stock Market is in just 100 stocks. So you have a pretty strong tilt towards Mega-Caps and Mega-Cap Growth at that. Just 3% of US stock market capitalization is Small Value. Just 9% of stocks are Small-Cap and Micro-Cap. Another 18% are Mid-Cap. S...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Get out of Morgan Stanley!
Replies: 22
Views: 2623

Re: Get out of Morgan Stanley!

While you are getting the sales and transfers figured out one thing you should do it to change all the mutual funds to not reinvest any dividends and capital gains distributions. There is not any point in buying more of the funds and it would make your taxes more complicated. I would assume that th...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!
Replies: 136
Views: 11634

Re: Core-4 Investing is LIVE!

Rick Ferri wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:58 pm
OK. Someone please try again and let me know. Thanks.

Rick
Working fine for me. Using a Google Pixel Android phone using Chrome browser.
by Rowan Oak
Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!
Replies: 136
Views: 11634

Re: Core-4 Investing is LIVE!

Tonight I launched Core-4 Investing under the Core-4.com domain name. You may recognize Core-4 from Bogleheads.org conversations and Wiki. It came about in 2007 as a simple way to achieve global diversification through four low-cost index funds. OK, there's nothing new here about the Classic Rick F...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Limting Human Bias - 3 Fund VS Vanguard Target Life Strategy
Replies: 30
Views: 2254

Re: Limting Human Bias - 3 Fund VS Vanguard Target Life Strategy

Hello, After reading Taylors 3 Fund book and several others I'm pretty convinced the main threat to my portfolio is myself (by the way of behavioral errors). Would it be correct to say that the Target Life funds are even more of a Bogle Head approach than the 3 fund portfolio? I’d say so. Target Re...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 28, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats with all the FUD here? [market volatility]
Replies: 42
Views: 4310

Re: Whats with all the FUD here? [market volatility]

After 10 years the market goes down a tiny bit and a bunch of people here are freaking out? If you are scared at this TINY movement you seriously need to rethink your asset allocation. We are Bogleheads, you shouldn't even know that the market has gone down let alone be emotionally affected by it :...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard thinks I have a wash sale. Do I?
Replies: 41
Views: 4360

Re: Vanguard thinks I have a wash sale. Do I?

Looks good. Did something very similar last week and Vanguard didn't show a wash sale as of today. Is it possible you missed a share lot within the wash sale date range? I noticed when you have many lots the sorting ability and short window in the vanguard "select shares" interface is very limited. ...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help! For a larger size taxable account do I pay an advisor?
Replies: 51
Views: 4106

Re: Help! For a larger size taxable account do I pay an advisor?

Yes, of course, and it isn't the opposite. Time monotonically increases. You get to decide on the time period you want to measure. That's where conflating verb tenses can be hazardous to your wealth springs from. "The market is going up 12% per year." No, the market has gone up 12% per year. We don...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8583
Views: 1676546

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

There are two components to my trend following strategy concerning whether to be in or out of stocks. For me to move out of stocks, the unemployment rate must be above its 12 month moving average and stocks must be trading below their 7 month moving average (measured at the end of the month). The U...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Smart money' bailing on the market, time to get out?
Replies: 92
Views: 12365

Re: Smart money bailing on the market, time to get out?

A better approach—if you have the jitters—is to have a band for equities AA. Say your equities band is 40-60% of total AA. Maybe feeling like you do, you might like to be ~45% in today’s market? Of course, use your own numbers. that's a good point; I actually was thinking of doing something along t...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Apple [AAPL] Stock
Replies: 63
Views: 7371

Re: Too Much APPL Stock

Watty wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:29 am
Duffydog1 wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:19 am
It is held in taxable and nontaxable accounts so i have to be careful about the taxable accounts.
Selling it in the nontaxable accounts is an easy choice. Putting the money from the sale into something like a total stock market index fund could make sense.
Good advice.
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Robo or Self managed?
Replies: 15
Views: 1561

Re: Robo or Self managed?

Awesome again. I'm torn between M1 and Charles Schwab (self managed). I'm looking into creating 2 new IRA accounts (Traditional and Roth) and fund my accounts by rolling over my existing IRAs from Betterment and also rolling over my old 401K. With that said, it is the allocation that I'm breaking m...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Constructing a 100% equity diversified Factor portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1637

Re: Constructing a 100% equity diversified Factor portfolio

Hello, After doing some reading it is now my goal to construct a very aggressive, 100% equity, 75 domestic / 25 international portfolio based on the Carhart 4 Factor model. In particular, I am convinced that premia for size, value, and momentum exist. I would like to maximize my exposure to all 3 o...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Set it and forget it
Replies: 47
Views: 9317

Re: Set it and forget it

"Nobody buys a farm based on whether they think it's going to rain next year; they buy it because they think it's a good investment over 10 or 20 years." Warren Buffett "Don't just do something, stand there!" Jack Bogle You'll be a better investor when you forget about your investments, providing y...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off the mortgage early - Isn't this the opposite of "putting more money into your house"?
Replies: 96
Views: 9059

Re: Paying off the mortgage early - Isn't this the opposite of "putting more money into your house"?

All three of Allan Roth's arguments are correct, as is discussed on the wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Paying_down_loans_versus_investing The fair comparison is not between a balanced portfolio and the mortgage rate, but between bond rates and mortgage rates. While you can have a higher expe...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off the mortgage early - Isn't this the opposite of "putting more money into your house"?
Replies: 96
Views: 9059

Paying off the mortgage early - Isn't this the opposite of "putting more money into your house"?

I often see the argument against paying off your mortgage early, because it is "putting more money into your house". Isn't it the opposite? I put the money in the day I closed on the house and took the mortgage. If anything the only added money going "into the house" is the interest on the mortgage ...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets
Replies: 158
Views: 13984

Re: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets

Many don't consider themselves "retired". That really is the overall misconception. For many they would probably prefer it be called the "FI (Financial Independence)" movement and be rid of the RE (retire early) part of the FIRE acronym all together. In that case, it's a misleading misnomer. Even t...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets
Replies: 158
Views: 13984

Re: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets

...us mere mortals who want to contribute more to this world than earning $1M then stopping. From what I've seen many don't "stop". In fact they're probably contributing "more to this world" after becoming financially independent. Yeah, but if they're blogging or consulting or whatever for money, t...