Search found 341 matches

by Rowan Oak
Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 951
Views: 94676

Re: "S&P 500 Index closes at record high"

Bogleheads: This afternoon the S&P 500 Index closed at an all-time record high Strong evidence that "Stay-the-Course" works! Thank you Mr. Bogle. Best wishes. Taylor Yes! And keep it simple with a 1-3 fund portfolio of low cost, broadly diversified index funds and then get on with your life.
by Rowan Oak
Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 736
Views: 43714

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Yes. Made me think of what you've said about trend following when I read it.
by Rowan Oak
Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 736
Views: 43714

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

This is from Michael Batnick with Ritholtz Wealth Management. They use a trend following strategy for clients. One of the challenges with tactical portfolio management, particularly with trend following, is that whipsaws are part of the deal. They can only be avoided by data mined backtests. In the ...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to Peer (P2P) Lending - What are the realistic returns?
Replies: 30
Views: 2888

Re: Peer to Peer (P2P) Lending - What are the realistic returns?

If you are an accredited investor, there are much better options for Alternatives. Some hard money lending funds have a preferred return greater than 10% with fairly good diversification and a reasonably safe LTV. Yes, hard money lending for accredited investors seems like a solid investment. Jim, ...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Feb 27, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Extraordinary Upside Potential Of Sequence Of Return Risk In Retirement - Michael Kitces
Replies: 91
Views: 7334

The Extraordinary Upside Potential Of Sequence Of Return Risk In Retirement - Michael Kitces

After all, at a 4% initial withdrawal rate, the odds of nearly depleting the portfolio are equal to the odds of growing it by more than 800%(!), and even at a 5% withdrawal rate, the odds of depleting the portfolio early are equal to the odds of tripling the retiree’s starting principal on top of t...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much is too much capital loss carryover?
Replies: 25
Views: 2012

Re: How much is too much capital loss carryover?

I'm still using up mid-6-figure capital loss carryover from 2008-2009. That's because I am withdrawing from my taxable portfolio to pay some expenses. Since return of capital is tax-free and realized capital gains get offset by the carryover, I have plenty of no- and low-tax space to do Roth conver...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?
Replies: 133
Views: 7755

Re: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?

I Buy, Hold, and Rebalance. I did a good bit of tax loss harvesting and rebalancing in December 2018 including 12/24. I have already rebalanced again from Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund into Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund. As of 2/15/2019 I’m almost exactly at my chosen asset allocati...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another frugality/contentment post from Morgan Housel
Replies: 28
Views: 2499

Re: Another frugality/contentment post from Morgan Housel

Yes, for me the quote is simply about financial independence.
by Rowan Oak
Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another frugality/contentment post from Morgan Housel
Replies: 28
Views: 2499

Re: Another frugality/contentment post from Morgan Housel

I like what he says here: The hard part is becoming satisfied with spending less. It’s not easy. It’s a behavioral trait, not analytical skill, and investing attracts more of the latter. Some are better at it than others, but virtually everyone is primed to at least assume they’ll be happier if they...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1919954

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

With the market looking much better who here is thinking of getting back into the market? The crash in December was brutal. Scared many (including me). 1. I was never out of the market. 2. I rebalanced INTO equities in December. 3. Things are up so much, I hit a rebalancing band and have started to...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 736
Views: 43714

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Thank you for posting about your process. Will be following along.
by Rowan Oak
Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bogle Rule
Replies: 24
Views: 4756

Re: The Bogle Rule

Great idea! The name Bogle forever linked to the act of looking out for the individual investor's best interest.
by Rowan Oak
Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 51517

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

Rest in peace. My family will be eternally grateful.
by Rowan Oak
Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: More capital loss carryovers than can use in lifetime
Replies: 30
Views: 4201

Re: More capital loss carryovers than can use in lifetime

Livesoft when can I purchase your book on tax loss/gain harvesting? Seriously, write one will ya? :D Always so much good info, but I can't keep track of the threads, individual posts and examples where you share your wisdom on this subject. Thanks for sharing. Thanks. I'm thinking of getting Mike P...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sold a rental property for an "ordinary loss of $70,719" in 2018 - how will this affect taxes?
Replies: 23
Views: 2129

Re: Sold a rental property for an "ordinary loss of $70,719" in 2018 - how will this affect taxes?

The $70,719 ordinary loss is after accounting for depreciation recapture. The house (single family home) was a rental for over 10 years.
by Rowan Oak
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sold a rental property for an "ordinary loss of $70,719" in 2018 - how will this affect taxes?
Replies: 23
Views: 2129

Re: Sold a rental property for an "ordinary loss of $70,719" in 2018 - how will this affect taxes?

So this will be an "ordinary loss" and I will be able to deduct from income? No limits? Rather than answer your question, this is a case where I would go to a tax pro. You are about to claim a deduction of $70k. You want to make sure it is done correctly. It is possible you could claim more. Don't ...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stopping 401k to buy up cash-flowing real estate?
Replies: 24
Views: 1951

Re: Stopping 401k to buy up cash-flowing real estate?

Rental real estate is essentially buying a job, but that sounds like what you want to do. Real estate is risky, far from a sure thing. And it's riskier if you are concentrated in a small number of properties in a single market, and you don't have other asset classes in your portfolio. I suggest acq...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: My favorite Boglehead posters
Replies: 142
Views: 8886

Re: My favorite Boglehead posters

No particular order:

retiredjg
Taylor Larimore
Rick Ferri
livesoft
nisiprius
grabiner
pkcrafter
VictoriaF
Toons
whodidntante
White Coat Investor
HomerJ
Sandtrap


And many others.

The cumulative good they have done for others will never be fully appreciated.
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]
Replies: 153
Views: 14160

Re: Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to market time

Here's an interview from 2014 when he talks about the decision he made in 2000. Again, just be aware that in interviews in the early 2000, the timing of the changes was much different (and less fortuitous) than his recollections many years later have indicated: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/view...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]
Replies: 153
Views: 14160

Re: Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to market time

As usual, this Jack SAYS SELL!!!! story is a mis-quote out of context. I would take this direct quote from him in the article to be his normal advice.... “If I had a big liability in a year, I’d get prepared for it right now,” says Bogle. “You want to be able to fund it without pressure.” But for a...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Execution
Replies: 17
Views: 1323

Re: Dual Momentum Execution

Hello, I've read Gary Antonacci's book about dual momentum investing and thought it was interesting and thought provoking. For those of you who understand this strategy or perhaps use this strategy, I have a question. You have taken a YTD loss in whichever S&P500 index you are invested in. I'm assu...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bears are -20%? Then here are three bears stacked on top of each other
Replies: 34
Views: 4601

Re: Bears are -20%? Then here are three bears stacked on top of each other

This is a good reminder.

A 50% fall is usually the max I see talked about here on the forum. Still seems far away, but it probably won't if the market falls more than 30%.
by Rowan Oak
Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t Fall For It
Replies: 5
Views: 2448

Re: Don’t Fall For It

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.”

-Richard Feynman
by Rowan Oak
Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t Fall For It
Replies: 5
Views: 2448

Don’t Fall For It

Good advice here from Michael Batnick:
If you’re feeling like you “saw” the bear market coming, that’s because hindsight bias attacks our senses in times of distress. Believe me you didn’t.
Don’t Fall For It
Posted December 25, 2018 by Michael Batnick
by Rowan Oak
Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1919954

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

At 2359.21, S&P 500 would qualify for the worst December in the history of the index, going back to inception in 1923. Worse than any year, including the entire Great Depression. source: "@OddStats Retired finance professional. I can't see the future and neither can you; anyone who says different ha...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sold a rental property for an "ordinary loss of $70,719" in 2018 - how will this affect taxes?
Replies: 23
Views: 2129

Re: Sold a rental property for an "ordinary loss of $70,719" in 2018 - how will this affect taxes?

Yes, I owned the rental property (single family house) for over 10 years.

No capital gains in Vanguard taxable account this year. Actually, I've tax loss harvested over $10,000 in losses in 2018.
by Rowan Oak
Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sold a rental property for an "ordinary loss of $70,719" in 2018 - how will this affect taxes?
Replies: 23
Views: 2129

Sold a rental property for an "ordinary loss of $70,719" in 2018 - how will this affect taxes?

I sold a rental property in 2018 for an ordinary loss of $70,719 . I'm trying to figure out how this loss will be applied to my 2018 taxes. Will 100% of the $70,719 be deducted from my 2018 total income or is there a limit similar to the $3000 max for realized losses in a Vanguard taxable account? A...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1919954

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

We officially in a bear market? If you mean whether the total U.S. stock market has dropped 20% from its highs (i.e. the traditional definition), no, we aren't. And the S&P 500 isn't yet either. Technically, we are still in "correction" territory. I found this interesting, because we're right on th...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1919954

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

We officially in a bear market? If you mean whether the total U.S. stock market has dropped 20% from its highs (i.e. the traditional definition), no, we aren't. And the S&P 500 isn't yet either. Technically, we are still in "correction" territory. I found this interesting, because we're right on th...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Portfolio Watch
Replies: 13
Views: 1064

Re: Vanguard Portfolio Watch

Do folks use the vanguard Portfolio Watch tool to monitor their overall AA? What are folks’ thoughts on it’s reliability/accuracy? Does this tool takes into account the manually-entered “Outside Investments” section, or does it base it calculations strictly on Vanguard-held assets? Thanks Why bothe...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to take advantage of market big swing?
Replies: 17
Views: 1065

Re: How to take advantage of market big swing?

For at least the last 50 years, the market has been more volatile when it was in a downward trend than it wasn't. In 2018 was the market "in a downward trend"? Depending on how you defined "downward trend," U.S. stocks are currently in a downward trend. They are certainly well below their 200 day m...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to take advantage of market big swing?
Replies: 17
Views: 1065

Re: How to take advantage of market big swing?

For at least the last 50 years, the market has been more volatile when it was in a downward trend than it wasn't. In 2018 was the market "in a downward trend"? Depending on how you defined "downward trend," U.S. stocks are currently in a downward trend. They are certainly well below their 200 day m...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1919954

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

How are you guys feeling? I am considering lightening up on equities - this may be going much much lower. A core principle of my investing plan is that I have no talent for market timing. Why do you think you do? Something is different this time. I can't quite put my finger on it. This one seems re...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) -1.85% Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) -2.42% Price as of 12/14/2018
Replies: 5
Views: 758

Re: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) -1.85% Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) -2.42% Price as of 12/14/2018

Yes, the exchange was from Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) to Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) with a transaction date 12/14/2018 so should be for the: VFIAX Price as of 12/14/2018 $239.87 Change -$5.94 -2.42% Maybe this actually increased the tax loss har...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) -1.85% Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) -2.42% Price as of 12/14/2018
Replies: 5
Views: 758

Re: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) -1.85% Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) -2.42% Price as of 12/14/2018

Hmmm. I did an exchange with Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) on Friday 12/14 for tax loss harvesting purposes. So this means the dividend (not reinvested) will show up in my settlement fund this week? Hope I can get it back invested at same or lower price. I may be thin...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) -1.85% Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) -2.42% Price as of 12/14/2018
Replies: 5
Views: 758

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) -1.85% Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) -2.42% Price as of 12/14/2018

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) -1.85%

Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) -2.42%

Same fund. Price as of 12/14/2018

Is it normal for the closing price to be this far off for the exact same fund (different share classes)?
by Rowan Oak
Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I made a mistake by not selling when the market was high this year
Replies: 153
Views: 19837

Re: I made a mistake by not selling when the market was high this year

Toons wrote:
Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:18 am
Just be patient and sell the next time the market reaches a new high.
It is just a matter of time.
:happy
I agree. This opportunity will present itself again and again and again...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Your love of index funds is terrible for our economy
Replies: 62
Views: 7519

Re: Article: Your love of index funds is terrible for our economy

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:04 pm
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

I think he means "Your love of index funds is terrible for my economy"
+3
by Rowan Oak
Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 104
Views: 7439

Re: Return vs. Volatility?

siamond wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:50 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:30 pm
Lesson learned: Increased return is much more important than reduced volatility.
Amen to that! Which is exactly why nobody should obsess about the Sharpe ratio or derivatives.
True and simple.
by Rowan Oak
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Motley Fools is now for fools only?.....RIP
Replies: 30
Views: 6981

Re: "False Profits"

Bogleheads: Jason Zweig, one of the wisest columnists on Wall Street, is a friend of the Bogleheads who has participated in our annual conferences. In 1999 Jason wrote a revealing article about the Motley Fools . This is the link: False Profits . Best wishes. Taylor Amazing how well Jason Zweig's a...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 57
Views: 5111

Re: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]

I think it's just a way for people to justify what they want to do, that being not invest in Internationals because of poor recent performance. If they were outpacing US stocks, we wouldn't be hearing this kind of talk. I don't know. Jack Bogle has had this same opinion for many years. I think in T...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 57
Views: 5111

Re: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc

Agreed. Can the mods look into this? If it is the author or someone connected to them posting these repeated quotes about this random individual trying to score some new followers/ buyers it should be prevented. This is silly. JL Collins is a blogger whose audience is novice investors. He writes ab...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 57
Views: 5111

Re: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]

This seems so obvious to me that I’m not sure what someone like JL Collins, or Jack Bogle for that matter, is missing when they make claims like this. I doubt Jack Bogle missed anything. Why? Because he knows everything about everything? He deserves all the respect in the world for what he accompli...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 150
Views: 21197

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

No, that advice is absolutely correct. The trick is for investors of any age to make adjustments to the portfolio BEFORE times of extreme financial stress so that they can indeed "tune out the noise" during the next 30%-40%-50% crash. Because it WILL happen. We don't know when, but there will be an...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 57
Views: 5111

Re: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]

onourway wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:54 pm


This seems so obvious to me that I’m not sure what someone like JL Collins, or Jack Bogle for that matter, is missing when they make claims like this.
I doubt Jack Bogle missed anything.
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS
Replies: 50
Views: 8823

Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:12 pm
JupiterJones wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:25 pm
Sounds like a bad '70s movie.

"In a world where gangs run wild and justice turns a blind eye, one priest must put down his collar and make a stand. Charles Bronson is Father Brock McSteele in... DEATH CROSS!"
I think you're mistaken.

That sounds like an AWESOME '70s movie!
+1
by Rowan Oak
Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 57
Views: 5111

Re: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc

In one of the interviews with JL Collins on Youtube he makes an argument against the need to explicitly include international funds or stocks in your portfolio, since broad-based index funds include big "U.S." companies with significant international business. JL Collins isn't the first person to s...