Search found 246 matches

by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it better to have fewer investment choices?
Replies: 19
Views: 1337

Re: Is it better to have fewer investment choices?

Vanguard has a fairly comprehensive page explaining the differences between their ETFs and mutual funds.

ETFs vs. mutual funds: A comparison
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets
Replies: 118
Views: 9756

Re: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets

Suze Orman gives her opinion on FIRE and why she hates it: https://youtu.be/JbeLhKKg9RI There was an excellent rebuttal to Suze's fearmongering on the Choose FI podcast. They don't have a transcript, but it's worth a listen. Here are some of the high points. JL Collins, a.k.a., the Godfather of FI,...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Warning: avoid Windows 10 update 1803
Replies: 115
Views: 13145

Re: Warning: avoid Windows 10 update 1803

Chromebook...just sayin'... Yes, a good Chromebook is very stable. Google Drive cloud backup built-in. In the instance of a rare crash you can be back to where you left off in minutes. Also, very safe for kid use or anyone who just doesn't fully understand how to use the internet and repeatedly "ha...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Warning: avoid Windows 10 update 1803
Replies: 115
Views: 13145

Re: Warning: avoid Windows 10 update 1803

I've had a similar experience. Using system restore in safe mode worked once and another time I had to do a "reset". I've now begun using Google Drive's "Backup and Sync" so I don't have to worry (as much) about losing files when Microsoft decides to release one of their semitested Windows 10 "feat...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Warning: avoid Windows 10 update 1803
Replies: 115
Views: 13145

Re: Warning: avoid Windows 10 update 1803

...I never decline updates. If they break something next update would fix it... Twice, automatic updates put my wife's Windows 10 computer into a state in which it would not startup. Once startup is broken, how can the "next update" fix it? (Both times I was eventually able to recover by restoring ...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH VTIAX [Tax loss harvest - Vanguard Total International Stock]
Replies: 65
Views: 3617

Re: TLH VTIAX

livesoft wrote:
Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:39 pm
PFInterest wrote:
Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:33 pm
i would like you to list your many, many more decent TLH partners for VTIAX at Vanguard? for education purposes of course.
But I'll throw you a bone: VTSAX is not a bad temporary TLH partner for VTIAX. Think about it.
Yes. This.
by Rowan Oak
Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5 ways target-date funds let investors down
Replies: 38
Views: 3301

Re: 5 ways target-date funds let investors down

And for the record, from 1998 until today (20 years), SCV has outperformed TSM by 1.77% annualized. willthrill81 And for the record TSM has outperformed SCV for the past 1yr, 3yrs, 5yrs and 10yrs. No one knows which fund will outperform in the future. Best wishes Taylor For me, this is good news ei...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Markets Tank, Do This - Jason Zweig
Replies: 5
Views: 2811

When Markets Tank, Do This - Jason Zweig

(my adaptation of Rudyard Kipling's poem "If --") If you can keep your head when all about you Are losing theirs and blaming it on the Fed; If you can trust yourself when guests on CNBC shout anew, But make allowance for their shouting dread; If you can wait and not be tired by waiting, Or, surroun...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Lessons of the 2008 Financial Crisis - Allan Roth
Replies: 3
Views: 1079

Remembering the Lessons of the 2008 Financial Crisis - Allan Roth

I fear we have learned little from the plunge. Today, people are coming to me with portfolios that are nearly 100 percent in stocks. When I point out just how risky that is, I hear things like “I’m in it for the long run,” and “I’m certain I won’t panic and sell.” Remembering the Lessons of the 200...
by Rowan Oak
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do not invest with Vanguard if you are a market-timer." - Vanguard
Replies: 12
Views: 2542

Re: "Do not invest with Vanguard if you are a market-timer." - Vanguard

I’d say Vanguard does, in fact, have a high tolerance for market timing.... Vanguard Group begins an investing experiment that pushes free ETF trading to its limit https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/08/01/vanguard-group-begins-key-experiment-in-the-new-era-of-free-investing.html Agr...
by Rowan Oak
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do not invest with Vanguard if you are a market-timer." - Vanguard
Replies: 12
Views: 2542

Re: "Do not invest with Vanguard if you are a market-timer." - Vanguard

Very good. Guess I never noticed it before or it's not included in all prospectuses.
by Rowan Oak
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do not invest with Vanguard if you are a market-timer." - Vanguard
Replies: 12
Views: 2542

"Do not invest with Vanguard if you are a market-timer." - Vanguard

"Do not invest with Vanguard if you are a market-timer." - Vanguard
This is the best quote from Vanguard in years. Found it looking through a current prospectus. Don't know how long they've been including this.

The line has been drawn.
by Rowan Oak
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3446

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

c) The coin-flip adds risk without adding any return, and reduces the risk-adjusted return for both of you.
by Rowan Oak
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle
Replies: 83
Views: 11382

Re: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle

With periodic rebalancing, you are buying into the teeth of a bear market. I plan to do just that. However, it is no guarantee against losses. In fact, you buy into losses. I wonder how many of us would be ready, willing, and able to keep buying all the way down if the stock market loses twenty, or...
by Rowan Oak
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle
Replies: 83
Views: 11382

Re: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle

It's easier if you have a portfolio of dividend stocks. That way you just say to yourself, who cares about the ups and downs of the market prices. You get paid quarterly (at least) and the amount generally goes up 3-5% every year. Not sure this is different than a total return strategy other than b...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it a sign that a bear market is coming, when most people are afraid that stocks will plummet?
Replies: 42
Views: 2744

Re: Is it a sign that a bear market is coming, when most people are afraid that stocks will plummet?

I feel euphoric about the market, I think it's going to keep rising for the foreseeable future and now is the best time to put your money into the market per your AA. You can't lose, the market has tremendous gains just ahead. The party is never going to end! I think that post is our "sell signal."...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 6353

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon. A lot of "experts" believe this could be in 2019. Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually. The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the ...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today, 2008: Warren Buffett - "Buy American. I Am."
Replies: 5
Views: 691

Today, 2008: Warren Buffett - "Buy American. I Am."

"Buy American. I Am." Why? A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses ...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't
Replies: 53
Views: 5809

Re: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't

#7 Look to the Past to See the Future If you don't look to the past where do you get your information? Wild guessing ? CNBC ? Shark Tank ? :thumbsup The whole "past performance doesn't predict future results" statement gets taken to the extremes far too often, including on this forum. "The past is ...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle
Replies: 83
Views: 11382

Re: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle

Toons wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:19 am
50/50
Sleep Well
Like A Baby

:mrgreen:
50/50 to 60% stock/40% bond seems to be the choice of many long-time Bogleheads nearing or in retirement. I plan on going with 50/50 at retirement considering my risk preferences and whole financial program (Social Security, etc.).
by Rowan Oak
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't
Replies: 53
Views: 5809

Re: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't

#7 Look to the Past to See the Future If you don't look to the past where do you get your information? Wild guessing ? CNBC ? Shark Tank ? :thumbsup The whole "past performance doesn't predict future results" statement gets taken to the extremes far too often, including on this forum. "The past is ...
by Rowan Oak
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 153
Views: 10362

"Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

Very detailed blog post by the "Mad Fientist". Safe Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees The 4% rule is actually very safe for a 30-year retirement A withdrawal rate of 3.5% can be considered the floor, no matter how long the retirement time horizon The sequence of real returns matters more than avera...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surprised by Jack's answer to Fidelity's 0 mgmt fund threat
Replies: 77
Views: 7781

Re: Surprised by Jack's answer to Fidelity's 0 mgmt fund threat

What is the actual benefit of the Vanguard ownership structure? I for one feel nothing like an owner, there are no financial reports, no voting ability, no reduced exec comp (not McNabb was rumoured to earn up to $15m/year etc. Vanguard is now behind Blackrock, Fidelity and Schwab in many core fund...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?
Replies: 103
Views: 5485

Re: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?

But I've yet to see a financial advisor recommend "investing" in food. Probably because they can't easily charge an AUM fee for it. :wink: The fact that it keeps pace with inflation is very rational though. My wife would probably say the same thing about her shoe collection.... Can't eat your shoes...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?
Replies: 103
Views: 5485

Re: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?

Since when does having more than a week's worth of food on hand have anything to do with a zombie apocalypse? Food you have on hand is food you don't have to purchase if any kind of emergency comes up, including something as mundane as a job loss. If I was suddenly unemployed, we wouldn't have to b...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?
Replies: 103
Views: 5485

Re: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?

Is an emergency fund just about market timing? No.
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth video interview two days before the market bottomed in March 2009
Replies: 7
Views: 849

Re: Allan Roth video interview two days before the market bottomed in March 2009

Rediscovered this video recently. Allan Roth video interview two days before the market bottomed in March 2009 encouraging investors to buy. I'll be rewatching this during the next crash: https://youtu.be/p1oxrF1cUeQ I'm not that familiar with him, especially in the past. Does this generally differ...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth video interview two days before the market bottomed in March 2009
Replies: 7
Views: 849

Re: Allan Roth video interview two days before the market bottomed in March 2009

Rediscovered this video recently. Allan Roth video interview two days before the market bottomed in March 2009 encouraging investors to buy. I'll be rewatching this during the next crash: https://youtu.be/p1oxrF1cUeQ I'm not that familiar with him, especially in the past. Does this generally differ...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 07, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth video interview two days before the market bottomed in March 2009
Replies: 7
Views: 849

Allan Roth video interview two days before the market bottomed in March 2009

Rediscovered this video recently. Allan Roth video interview two days before the market bottomed in March 2009 talking about the importance of rebalancing based on your chosen asset allocation and buying stocks. I'll be rewatching this during the next crash: https://youtu.be/p1oxrF1cUeQ Edit 1: to a...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 07, 2018 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't
Replies: 53
Views: 5809

Re: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't

I don’t pretend to be any smarter than Allan Roth... but he says his instincts told him to sell in 2008, while my instincts told me to buy. Our “gut instincts” can be informed by our education and experience. I suspect that this one-page article on the AARP website is meant for a different audience...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 07, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surprised by Jack's answer to Fidelity's 0 mgmt fund threat
Replies: 77
Views: 7781

Re: Surprised by Jack's answer to Fidelity's 0 mgmt fund threat

All these let’s-bash-Fidelity threads seem childish to me. I think it’s wonderful that Fidelity has lowered both minimum investments and expense ratios on many existing funds and that they have introduced four new ZERO funds. Competition is good for investors no matter which brokerage they use or w...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 07, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surprised by Jack's answer to Fidelity's 0 mgmt fund threat
Replies: 77
Views: 7781

Re: Surprised by Jack's answer to Fidelity's 0 mgmt fund threat

watchnerd wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:57 am
I don't expect Vanguard to be a market leader, and at their cost structure, they probably can't be. I'm not even sure if they're a "fast follower".
I thought they were leading the way. No?
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds for an aggressive investor
Replies: 25
Views: 2373

Re: Bonds for an aggressive investor

Because a portfolio with no fixed income assets is, by definition, not diversified. :happy Because there are times, even decades, when bonds pay more than stocks. Compare total stock to total bond from 2001 to 2011. During times like that you'll be glad at least something in your portfolio is produ...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle
Replies: 83
Views: 11382

Re: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.”

If someone is close to retirement or in retirement and has the retirement secured, I’d say don’t mess around. Consider doing something more definitive than just 5-10% to lock in the gains of the last decade. Monte Carlo Simulation can be very helpful for these decisions. 8 weeks from retirement and...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What part of your investment philosophy was "Inspired by Jack Bogle"?
Replies: 27
Views: 1072

What part of your investment philosophy was "Inspired by Jack Bogle"?

For me, it's everything. My entire investment philosophy is based on Jack's "Little Book of Common Sense Investing" and the Bogleheads investment philosophy . After 20 years of investing and making many mistakes along the way I have embraced Simplicity . With each year that passes I become more conf...
by Rowan Oak
Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You know you’re a Boglehead when. . .
Replies: 44
Views: 4813

Re: You know your a Boglehead when. . .

staythecourse wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:57 am
What folks who don't care for learning about investing don't realize is how EMPOWERING it is to have some control of your financial life. Glad to see you got a peek of that empowerment when most others who were getting anxious about their futures.
+1
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle
Replies: 83
Views: 11382

Re: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.”

If someone is close to retirement or in retirement and has the retirement secured, I’d say don’t mess around. Consider doing something more definitive than just 5-10% to lock in the gains of the last decade. Monte Carlo Simulation can be very helpful for these decisions. 8 weeks from retirement and...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 06, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't
Replies: 53
Views: 5809

Re: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't

"Make sure you can explain your investing strategy to any 8-year-old. " That makes absolutely no sense. As a pedagogue, it's not hard to do. Kids learn by doing. When I was a kid, our family played the board game Monopoly. We did the same with our children and the kids loved it. They played it for ...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 06, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't
Replies: 53
Views: 5809

Re: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't

I don’t pretend to be any smarter than Allan Roth... but he says his instincts told him to sell in 2008, while my instincts told me to buy. Our “gut instincts” can be informed by our education and experience. I suspect that this one-page article on the AARP website is meant for a different audience...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 06, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't
Replies: 53
Views: 5809

Re: Investment strategy for seven-year-old

JoeRetire wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 5:24 pm
Rowan Oak wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:14 pm
Taylor Larimore, Bill Bernstein, Jane Bryant Quinn and Allan Roth agree. That's way more than enough for me!
Sure.

Everything I need to know I learned in kindergarten and all...

Fun to say. Nothing any adult would actually follow.
I don't see your point.
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it better to have fewer investment choices?
Replies: 19
Views: 1337

Re: Is it better to have fewer investment choices?

I've been thinking about moving all my accounts to Vanguard and just investing directly in the index funds, despite their disadvantages relative to ETF's. The reason is that I feel by limiting the number of investment options, as well as the ease with which I might trade, I prevent myself from maki...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle
Replies: 83
Views: 11382

“It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle

Faced with low expected returns, what’s his advice? “You better save more money,” Jack Bogle counsels. “You better get more costs out of the equation.” What about lightening up on stocks? “It all depends on your financial ability and emotional ability to withstand a market decline,” he says. “It’s ...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't
Replies: 53
Views: 5809

Re: Investment strategy for seven-year-old

Make sure you can explain your investing strategy to any 8-year-old. That makes absolutely no sense. Bogleheads: Bill Bernstein, Jane Bryant Quinn and others believe it does "make sense." This is the beginning of Bill Bernstein's free book, If You Can : Would you believe me if I told you that there...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't
Replies: 53
Views: 5809

Re: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't

Investing doesn't have to be complicated, but I fail to see why we reducing it to the level of third grade understanding is worthwhile. If that was truly the optimal solution, then 95% of what goes on in this forum is counter-productive. We should just tell everyone to invest everything in low cost...
by Rowan Oak
Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't
Replies: 53
Views: 5809

Re: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't

Investing doesn't have to be complicated, but I fail to see why we reducing it to the level of third grade understanding is worthwhile. If that was truly the optimal solution, then 95% of what goes on in this forum is counter-productive. We should just tell everyone to invest everything in low cost...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't
Replies: 53
Views: 5809

7 Investing Truths That Aren't

Sometimes it’s not the crazy investing ideas that we need to avoid — it’s the ones that seem most sane. Many widely held beliefs about stocks, bonds and other investments sound like reasonable guidelines for where to put your money on Wall Street. But through my work in the financial industry, I’ve...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's Wisdom: What's next for the market and what to do about it
Replies: 8
Views: 1106

Re: Jack's Wisdom: What's next for the market and what to do about it

Everything that’s happening today is great for the short term and terrible for the long term,” Jack cautions. “We’re on dangerous ground and yet the [stock] market goes blithely on.” Faced with low expected returns, what’s his advice? “You better save more money,” Jack counsels. “You better get mor...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets
Replies: 118
Views: 9756

Re: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets

However, I'm not hearing many in the FIRE community talk like a 50% drop in stocks will never happen and that it's only up and up from now on. Frankly, I think that the typical FIRE person has a better grasp on the realities of the situation than the prototypical retiree. I agree. At least not the ...
by Rowan Oak
Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle
Replies: 144
Views: 7524

Re: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle

I think his signature says it all: "The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity." While I believe simple, few-fund indexing is a great solution for many people, when people demand that that must clearly be the r...