Search found 584 matches

by Tamalak
Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?
Replies: 115
Views: 9461

Re: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?

Last month, after one too many tweets that costing me at closing time, I decided to bail out of stocks just above DOW 26,000, at least until this trade war gets settled. You'll never make any money in stocks like that. Stocks will rally LONG before the trade war, or any other negative, is settled. ...
by Tamalak
Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you doing about lantern flies?
Replies: 13
Views: 1249

Re: What are you doing about lantern flies?

These things are everywhere in the Malvern area. Entire trees are riddled with them sucking them dry. Their corpses all over the path I like to walk. The forest smells like it's ROTTING. And before this year I've never seen a single one. It feels like the end of the world.
by Tamalak
Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Replies: 30
Views: 3826

Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Yup.

My fear of the ship sinking is less than my fear of the ship leaving without me.. so I always stay invested :sharebeer
by Tamalak
Thu Jun 27, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing a job in your 50's...
Replies: 431
Views: 61207

Re: Losing a job in your 50's...

I'm planning to retire at 40 and this is a big reason why.

Unfortunately that requires not having a woman or children.. but I guess that's what society wants us to do now :|
by Tamalak
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excluding International All Together?
Replies: 82
Views: 9685

Re: Excluding International All Together?

Good reason to include international:
Diversification

Bad reason to include international:
P/E or CAPE ratio

Good reason to avoid international:
Taxation increases effective ER by 30 points, uncompensated currency volatility

Bad reason to avoid international:
Recent underperformance
by Tamalak
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 24712

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

No way. Cryptocurrency is currency. The future expected return on it is 0 (plus inflation since it's not an inflationary currency). I'm not interested in buying it to make money any more than I'd be interested in buying a Peso to make money. I'll buy a Peso if I plan to visit Mexico. I'll buy crypto...
by Tamalak
Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash to investments
Replies: 31
Views: 2760

Re: Cash to investments

I am sitting on some cash in a taxable account. Invest it now or wait me til market corrects ? I know timing is discouraged here but common sense says market is overvalued. Goal is 60% stock. Any thoughts? When I have had large sums to invest, I have spread the investments over a 12 or 24 month per...
by Tamalak
Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 8250

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

Short summary of the article: Past performance indicates future results, therefore buy high and sell low. Yes. This is my whole concern. International has sucked in the recent PAST. Big deal right? Humans love to cultivate patterns in the past. Yet in the PRESENT I have been closing my eyes and pre...
by Tamalak
Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 8250

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

I don't get it. If the market is even a little bit efficient, how can international have inferior returns week after week after week? If it was like a sudden correction once due to new information that would be one thing. But I play a game where I look at VTI and ask "ok how much worse is internati...
by Tamalak
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How would you invest a lump sum of 3 million dollars in today's market?
Replies: 50
Views: 5938

Re: How would you invest a lump sum of 3 million dollars in today's market?

An investment of $3m does not need a large reserve of emergency cash, because the typical dividend yield of 2% will be able to throw off $60k dividend per year. You might want to invest this large sum conservatively just because preserving it could be just as important as obtaining gains from it. A...
by Tamalak
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 8250

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

I don't get it. If the market is even a little bit efficient, how can international have inferior returns week after week after week? If it was like a sudden correction once due to new information that would be one thing. But I play a game where I look at VTI and ask "ok how much worse is internatio...
by Tamalak
Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How would you invest a lump sum of 3 million dollars in today's market?
Replies: 50
Views: 5938

Re: How would you invest a lump sum of 3 million dollars in today's market?

VTI, VT, BND. Ratio's totally your choice. Anything except more than 75% BND is just fine.

Invest immediately, lump sum. If the market drops 10%, you lose 10% whether you've been invested 10 seconds or 10 years. Might as well dive all the way in now.
by Tamalak
Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Buy & Hold Index Investors "need" people to actively invest?
Replies: 26
Views: 2306

Re: Do Buy & Hold Index Investors "need" people to actively invest?

Yes, index investors need active investors because active investors set the prices.. they "decide" GOOG is worth $500 or whatever so they set bids at $499 and asks at $501 and wait for people to accept those offers. Passive investors accept whatever those offers are by policy. If there's ever a prob...
by Tamalak
Thu May 16, 2019 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is holding two total market index funds okay?
Replies: 6
Views: 701

Re: Is holding two total market index funds okay?

Your plan adds more complication than value but it won't be a disaster.
by Tamalak
Thu May 16, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?
Replies: 76
Views: 8544

Re: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?

Your grandma kicked butt, she deserves to enjoy her victory, not be lectured by her upstart grandkid armed with a bumper sticker.

Unless you think her retirement will be endangered by her current AA, and it doesn't sound like it is, back off :sharebeer
by Tamalak
Thu May 16, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you keep track of your TOTAL gains and losses from investments?
Replies: 4
Views: 526

Re: Do you keep track of your TOTAL gains and losses from investments?

You bet. Vanguard makes this easy in the performance tab :sharebeer

I love looking at it! Usually. Not last week :annoyed
by Tamalak
Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 16680

Re: Dump international?

I'll go out on a limb with my crystal ball and predict that US stock market cap will be down to 30% of world stock market cap by 2050. If so, that means total international will outperform US by about 2.3% annualized over the next 30 years. This isn't necessarily so. New IPOs increase market cap bu...
by Tamalak
Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 16680

Re: Dump international?

Today: International down 1%, US flat
Yesterday: International flat, US up 1%

This is just miserable lmao. I'm going to stick to my 50/50 allocation, but how many decades in a row can this go on if the markets are anywhere near efficient?
by Tamalak
Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whats the Point of Climbing the Corporate Ladder?
Replies: 164
Views: 18082

Re: Whats the Point of Climbing the Corporate Ladder?

I'm with the OP, happy with my current position and salary, and I've noticed that ranks above mine tend to increase in responsibility and work more than they do in salary.. unfortunately they plan to promote me soon. I need to get to that FIRE number quick..
by Tamalak
Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1565
Views: 164918

Re: "S&P 500 Index closes at record high"

Stock all time highs. Taylor: "See, stay the course works!"

Bottom of 2008 lows. Taylor: "Time for Plan B!!"

Alrighty then :wink:
by Tamalak
Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What, if anything, do I owe this guy?
Replies: 82
Views: 8563

Re: What, if anything, do I owe this guy?

Dude's a swindler, but you still should act with honor. IMO just call him and tell him you've reconsidered and have decided to manage your own assets. Don't explain yourself any further, draw a hard line there. That's the minimum you owe him and IMO should be the only thing you give him. Emotionally...
by Tamalak
Wed Apr 10, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Junk bonds undervalued due to boglehead popularity?
Replies: 51
Views: 5068

Junk bonds undervalued due to boglehead popularity?

Every time junk bonds are brought up here they're dismissed as kind of a pointless hybrid of the risk of stocks and the safety of bonds. The mantra here is that to the extent you want risk buy stocks and to the extent you want security buy (high quality) bonds. This implementation of buy-and-hold is...
by Tamalak
Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What role do bonds play in your portfolio?
Replies: 75
Views: 5787

Re: What role do bonds play in your portfolio?

Safety net. I have 1-2 years of expenses in bonds. Rest in stocks. By chance this gives me a 90/10% stock/bond ratio which is what is recommended for my age.
by Tamalak
Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 210
Views: 12474

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

At world market cap, whatever that is. At present about 50/50. I will maintain world market cap for the next 50 years of international underperformance :sharebeer
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]
Replies: 65
Views: 25710

Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]

I predict the market will prick her finger on the spindle of a spinning wheel.. AND DIE
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Working as a Senior Male is Wise...
Replies: 104
Views: 12321

Re: Why Working as a Senior Male is Wise...

I plan to retire at 40. Social stimulation is easily found online for me. I don't need a job for it, personally.
by Tamalak
Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much stocks for 5 years?
Replies: 16
Views: 1213

Re: How much stocks for 5 years?

25% stocks / 75% bonds is my preferred defensive position. It actually gives less volatility and higher return than 100% bonds.
by Tamalak
Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Money Troubles: Need advice to start over from a hole.
Replies: 37
Views: 3185

Re: Money Troubles: Need advice to start over from a hole.

Oh look, another dire warning to never get married, as if I needed another one :oops:
by Tamalak
Tue Jan 29, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?
Replies: 114
Views: 8643

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

I learned that my risk tolerance was pretty okay. The February drop was refreshing, the Oct/Dec drop was frustrating but felt healthy to me. I'm 100% stocks with a high net worth for my age so I lost heaps of money, but I didn't 'feel' the loss as much as I feared.
by Tamalak
Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge fund manager lost more than 30% in '18: 'Nothing went right'
Replies: 21
Views: 2534

Re: Hedge fund manager lost more than 30% in '18: 'Nothing went right'

percy wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:51 am
They returned 7 percent in 2016 and 1.5 percent in 2017.
How is this possible? Everything was up in 2017, everything. To make 1.5 percent in 2017 is like going outside in a rainstorm and dodging all the rain. These guys are really geniuses.
by Tamalak
Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Marketwatch - If everyone invested like John Bogle, markets couldn’t work right
Replies: 54
Views: 3710

Re: Marketwatch - If everyone invested like John Bogle, markets couldn’t work right

There are financial rewards for investing. This is justified by the fact that investors shoulder risk for the company they're investing in. There are financial rewards for successful price discovery. This is justified by the fact that price discovery allocates capital in wise ways. Active investors ...
by Tamalak
Tue Jan 22, 2019 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 5238

Re: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?

I thought her savings was kind of light for somebody who is 30. Different lens perhaps because my 20 something already has 6-figure saving, after only one year of working. Same, she seemed to be straggling a bit to me since I sold my first company for millions when I was 15, but I guess it's just a...
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100% in VTSAX - Is it crazy???
Replies: 87
Views: 11541

Re: 100% in VTSAX - Is it crazy???

Not crazy. I'm 100% invested in stocks also, but I'm diversified internationally at capitalization - I wouldn't want to have all my eggs in ONE country-basket, as powerful and awesome as that country is right now. 100% stocks feels good to me. Even the recent down spikes didn't tempt me at all :shar...
by Tamalak
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)
Replies: 31
Views: 2911

Re: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)

(39 out of 41 funds down)
3 out of 3 of my funds were down this year, so I'm in no position to throw stones at active investors :D

(I did not, however, lay off any of my 1 employees)
by Tamalak
Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for the bounce
Replies: 60
Views: 9472

Re: Preparing for the bounce

I'd like to subscribe to the OP's newsletter :D
by Tamalak
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Test of Warren Buffett's 90:10 Retirement Portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 5582

Re: A Test of Warren Buffett's 90:10 Retirement Portfolio

Warren Buffett can afford to be 90:10 because he owns his house outright and he knows at guy at Dairy Queen who can hook him up if things get dicey.

Not everyone is in the same position as him. Adjust your AA to your situation.
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 16868

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

International has now gone nowhere for two decades. What on earth are they even doing over there? :oops:
by Tamalak
Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Don't put in stocks what you can't afford to lose? Really?
Replies: 16
Views: 2309

Re: Don't put in stocks what you can't afford to lose? Really?

I think a more sensible saying would be that if you need the money in x years, don't have more than 2x percent in stocks.
by Tamalak
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12298
Views: 2105320

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

columbia wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:01 pm
Tamalak wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:45 pm
Everyone look quick, ex-us is up while us is down. It's like spotting a unicorn..
I think the unicorn just went to the glue factory.
Yup.. poof :|
by Tamalak
Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12298
Views: 2105320

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Everyone look quick, ex-us is up while us is down. It's like spotting a unicorn..
by Tamalak
Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to take advantage of market big swing?
Replies: 17
Views: 1097

Re: How to take advantage of market big swing?

GoldStar wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:33 pm
Tamalak wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:42 pm
When market is up I walk to invest my quarterly allocation.

When the market is down I run to invest it (doing that today in fact)

A tiny bit of market timing but not going to be all that impactful IMO.
Yesterday was the day.
Nnnooooooooooo
by Tamalak
Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to take advantage of market big swing?
Replies: 17
Views: 1097

Re: How to take advantage of market big swing?

When market is up I walk to invest my quarterly allocation.

When the market is down I run to invest it (doing that today in fact)

A tiny bit of market timing but not going to be all that impactful IMO.
by Tamalak
Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???
Replies: 129
Views: 14044

Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

Yep, my portfolio crossed (backwards) a certain psychological threshhold just yesterday. Gruelling December!
by Tamalak
Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Motley Fools is now for fools only?.....RIP
Replies: 30
Views: 7266

Re: Motley Fools is now for fools only?.....RIP

I credit Fools for introducing me to the idea that the expense ratio of a fund is incredibly important.

Fortunately I identified most of their nonsense for what it was.
by Tamalak
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise of Passive Investing - Are we missing something?
Replies: 18
Views: 3262

Re: The Rise of Passive Investing - Are we missing something?

It's a good question and one worth revisiting. History is full of examples of the dangers of bandwagoning and like it or not, index investing is a bandwagon right now, big time. Others have already mentioned that there's no problem with the loss of active investors. We always had way more active inv...
by Tamalak
Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you "Stay the Course"?
Replies: 78
Views: 11058

Re: How do you "Stay the Course"?

How do you "stay the course"?
By being as emotional as I please, and peeking whenever I want, but simply choosing not ever to stray from my investment protocol.

Stoicism is better and simpler than any other emotional strategy imo. For investing and life in general.
by Tamalak
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?
Replies: 18
Views: 2044

Re: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?

You can always draw a line thru an asset's historical value and say "look! It keeps reverting to this mean!" I don't believe in it at all. Good news is good, profit is profit. Bad news is bad, losses are losses. There is no magical karmic balancing force that says one needs to lead to the other. The...
by Tamalak
Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you all staying the course?
Replies: 114
Views: 8013

Re: Are you all staying the course?

100% stocks and half of that international, I'm taking a beating this year, but not even tempted to stray from the course :sharebeer
by Tamalak
Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market
Replies: 38
Views: 5510

Re: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market

Here's a crazy strategy. Get out of the overvalued stock market now, and then dollar-average back in over 3-month intervals. Why would you want to buy something you know is overvalued at all, even with DCA? That IS crazy. Why do you think stocks are overvalued? I have no idea if they're overvalued ...