Search found 525 matches

by Tamalak
Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: flat for the year
Replies: 27
Views: 2494

Re: flat for the year

Flat for the year? I'm jealous.

I sure do wish international would decide to stop being trash for a little while.. :|
by Tamalak
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50,000: Should I buy now or wait for the market to drop further?
Replies: 43
Views: 6893

Re: $50,000: Should I buy now or wait for the market to drop further?

The best time to invest in the market is 40+ years ago. So get it in now so you can get to that point.
by Tamalak
Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds... Why do people bother with them. ?
Replies: 71
Views: 7400

Re: Bonds... Why do people bother with them. ?

I use bonds as a buffer. I keep one full year of expenses in them. That's a small part of my portfolio so it doesn't inhibit returns much, but it'll definitely help me sleep if the market crashes!
by Tamalak
Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why won't the US markets average 0-2% (or 10-20%) real returns for a few decades?
Replies: 20
Views: 2799

Re: Why won't the US markets average 0-2% (or 10-20%) real returns for a few decades?

I think the real question here is why has the historical real returns always been 6-7%? It's been far from steady decade by decade, but if you package good decades with bad it always seems to hit that mark.

The follow up is, is this likely to continue?
by Tamalak
Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Helping a sibling
Replies: 26
Views: 3120

Re: Helping a sibling

If the sibling hasn't asked for help and complained about their funds are being handled, don't touch them.

If the market goes south after you 'educate' them they will blame you for losses.
by Tamalak
Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment types in a no-growth environment
Replies: 35
Views: 2733

Re: Investment types in a no-growth environment

I'd invest in the same stuff I always would. Businesses would still make money.

An apple farm would still sell apples for 10% more than the cost of producing them and give me the difference, even if neither the sales nor technology grow.
by Tamalak
Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equities as a hedge against inflation
Replies: 36
Views: 2494

Re: Equities as a hedge against inflation

A stock is a share of a company.. a company is made up of a lot of things, inventory, land, buildings, employees, IP, cash, debt etc.

Of all that, only the cash and debt get eaten by inflation, and you WANT debt to get eaten. So it seems like equities are a good protection to me.
by Tamalak
Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 74
Views: 8016

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

Interesting article on Siegel and Shiller that I thought I’d share here: http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/siegel-shiller-stock-market/ Siegel: - The CAPE ratio might be permanently higher due to indexing lowering costs for investors (an interesting argument that I had not heard of before)...
by Tamalak
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 74
Views: 8016

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

Interesting article on Siegel and Shiller that I thought I’d share here: http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/siegel-shiller-stock-market/ Siegel: - The CAPE ratio might be permanently higher due to indexing lowering costs for investors (an interesting argument that I had not heard of before)...
by Tamalak
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 74
Views: 8016

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

Let me see if I understand how the bond market works and why Siegel is wrong. Say I buy a bond fund for $100 when yield is 2%. So they're gonna yield $2 a year. Then, without warning, yield rises to 4%. At that moment, people can get $4 for $100, so nobody in their right mind would buy my $2-yield b...
by Tamalak
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Im going to die somewhere between Bankruptcy and $20 million
Replies: 46
Views: 9642

Re: Im going to die somewhere between Bankruptcy and $20 million

3) In real life, just about the uniform experience is that all attempts to estimate the probability of low-probability events underestimate them--badly. The risk model for a meltdown at Three Mile Island suggests that what happened should have only happened once in 30,000 years. The events that led...
by Tamalak
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9365

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

It's pretty simple. Passive investors depend on active investors to set the price. More specifically, passive investors depend on active investors setting up Bid and Asks. If you want to know the 'cut' active investors are demanding for their work, just look at the spread between Bid and Ask. Right ...
by Tamalak
Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review, Age 31, $1.5 million net worth
Replies: 38
Views: 8337

Re: Portfolio Review, Age 31, $1.5 million net worth

Stay single and don't cultivate a drug addiction, and you're set for life :beer
by Tamalak
Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (No Savings) *Everything* in S&P 500?
Replies: 33
Views: 3937

Re: (No Savings) *Everything* in S&P 500?

I love stocks, I think they're not just the best way to grow your wealth but the best way to preserve your buying power. But even I have a year's worth of expenses in bonds. Everything ELSE is in VT.
by Tamalak
Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?
Replies: 77
Views: 8754

Re: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?

Another reason we expect it to keep growing is that the price adjusts itself to something that is reasonably expected to provide a positive return.

If a positive return is not expected, the price would plummet until it was.
by Tamalak
Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?
Replies: 72
Views: 3129

Re: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?

Who's deciding what the categories are? I could make a separate category for my niece's lemonade stand and suddenly it makes sense to give that as much money as the entire health care industry (which will be all the more profitable after people drink her lemonade :twisted: ) If one industry has 3x t...
by Tamalak
Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Massive Student Loan Debt - Fiancee
Replies: 108
Views: 10332

Re: Massive Student Loan Debt - Fiancee

I love this woman, but she doesn't seem to comprehend the gravity of the situation. I love her, but I agonize about our future. How much of a red flag should this be? If the PSLF program were to fail, it seems paying back the debt would be insurmountable. How much is this me being shallow vs. a val...
by Tamalak
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hypothetical Question - Market Timing
Replies: 43
Views: 2499

Re: Hypothetical Question - Market Timing

If there's a 50% drop, that cuts in half the money of anyone who's invested.

So if you invest after the drop, you will have twice as much money at all points in time as you would have if you invested before the drop.
by Tamalak
Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A case for holding international bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1189

Re: A case for holding international bonds

International stocks are going so well, I'm definitely going to buy up the world 'cap' bond fund when it comes out!
by Tamalak
Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a low-cost person...
Replies: 14
Views: 1289

Re: As a low-cost person...

I started investing in retirement funds <2 yrs ago. I heard about AA, and I know bond is important. But whenever I look at the bond performance, I just don't know how to make sense of it, since it's just slightly better than cds... :confused Bond returns have been lousy lately because they're mainl...
by Tamalak
Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a low-cost person...
Replies: 14
Views: 1289

Re: As a low-cost person...

I'm kind of in your position, mid-30s, high savings rate (but not as high as yours!) My policy is to keep half a year of income or a year of expenses (whichever's higher) in bonds, and the rest in stocks. 10k in cash. "stocks" = VT ETF, "bonds" = BND ETF. Simple plan and it's worked great so far! R...
by Tamalak
Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a low-cost person...
Replies: 14
Views: 1289

Re: As a low-cost person...

I'm kind of in your position, mid-30s, high savings rate (but not as high as yours!) My policy is to keep half a year of income or a year of expenses (whichever's higher) in bonds, and the rest in stocks. 10k in cash. "stocks" = VT ETF, "bonds" = BND ETF. Simple plan and it's worked great so far! Ra...
by Tamalak
Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are you not compensated for taking unsystematic risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2414

Re: Why are you not compensated for taking unsystematic risk?

You are rewarded for taking unsystemic risk, if you have good reason to believe that the individual stock you're buying is too cheap. This is called price discovery. Investing this way is so difficult, it's basically an entire job, though. Without the skills for price discovery, you have no business...
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1194
Views: 99330

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

5. Currency Risk: International stocks are denominated in foreign currencies. The US dollar is up this year, international stocks are down. Last year it was the opposite. Why take on the risk associated with the never-ending changes to the currency exchange rate ? I don't see currency "risk" as rea...
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1194
Views: 99330

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Total World Index with a bond fund and be done with it. Look at it once a year. Looking g at daily flicuations and these threads will drive you crazy. VT ER = .10 (VTI ER = .04 + VXUS ER = .11) / 2 = .075 It's lower average ER to slice and dice the two. :) Simplicity is awesome, but cheaper is even...
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young investor: How to stay the course? How to not think about investing all the time?
Replies: 16
Views: 2191

Re: Young investor: How to stay the course? How to not think about investing all the time?

I don't resist the obsession. Check the market every day. If I'm already paying for the excitement of gambling, why not enjoy it? :sharebeer
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7439
Views: 1557058

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I love that stocks for the long run chart. Did we really have no inflation for 130 years??
by Tamalak
Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do you put away in investments?
Replies: 66
Views: 5482

Re: How much do you put away in investments?

50k, more than half my after tax income.

I hope to retire by 40 :D
by Tamalak
Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1194
Views: 99330

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Here's a more uptodate chart: "The chart shows the values of the S&P 500 Index’s returns minus the MSCI World ex USA Index’s returns.": https://www.hartfordfunds.com/insights/client-conversations/USAndInternationalMarketsHaveMovedInCycles.html This chart seems to be used in a lot of mutual fund adv...
by Tamalak
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?
Replies: 81
Views: 9365

Re: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?

Every single day. It's like a daily football game where I win or lose thousands! Why would I miss the excitement? :sharebeer

There are no behavioral consequences for me. I'll rage when things go badly and cheer when things go well. And in all cases, stick to the very simple plan.
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 17, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1194
Views: 99330

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I rarely change my beliefs when I'm in an argument, because if I hold a position strongly enough to defend it in an argument, I'm not likely to let go of it.

But witnessing arguments is often very helpful to get me some perspective on an issue I'm not strong in.
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 17, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 10472

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

Please tell me these are real returns. I suspect not.
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1194
Views: 99330

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

9 pages in. I have to ask. Has a single person changed their position having read or participated in this thread? :shock: :oops: :sharebeer No, because I've already settled on my approach to international. BUT, I read about five topics like this before I was able to do that. They did help me!
by Tamalak
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1194
Views: 99330

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Remember: ***it's all is priced in*** Only to the extent that the efficient market hypothesis is true. Not many financial academics believe that it's strictly accurate anymore. I don't believe that the market is necessarily efficient, only that it tries its best to equalize expected risk adjusted r...
by Tamalak
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1194
Views: 99330

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Remember: ***it's all is priced in*** Only to the extent that the efficient market hypothesis is true. Not many financial academics believe that it's strictly accurate anymore. I don't believe that the market is necessarily efficient, only that it tries its best to equalize expected risk adjusted r...
by Tamalak
Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mistake done [Europe - Have you ever regretted a trade that you made?]
Replies: 13
Views: 1540

Re: Mistake done [Europe - Have you ever regretted a trade that you made?]

I lost like 10k in this crisis, a good chunk of that was newly invested money too. I'm in the same boat as you OP - but I have zero regrets. I made no mistakes.

You do not get the risk premium without taking risks. Hold your head up and stay the course!
by Tamalak
Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation for High Net Worth (>$3M) Individuals
Replies: 26
Views: 5046

Re: Asset Allocation for High Net Worth (>$3M) Individuals

Sandtrap wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:53 pm
Outstanding write up on the 64/40 allocation by Bernstein.
http://web.archive.org/web/20061214061 ... in6040.pdf
This is my preferred asset allocation for its immediate 4% return :D
by Tamalak
Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: sell vti buy vnqi [sell Vanguard Total Stock, buy Global ex-U.S. Real Estate]
Replies: 6
Views: 581

Re: sell vti buy vnqi

Good for you for rebalancing per your IPS! Go ahead and be nervous about it. Embrace fear - it doesn't stop you from following a plan :sharebeer
by Tamalak
Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What stocks are excluded from VG’s total international funds?
Replies: 6
Views: 718

Re: What stocks are excluded from VG’s total international funds?

Is that 98% by cap or 98% by number of stocks?

Because if it's by number of stocks that's like 99.99% of cap..

Either way I'm impressed. I thought it would be a much smaller number, strategically positioned to follow the index of all international stocks.
by Tamalak
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone tilting heavy to international based on current forecasts?
Replies: 38
Views: 4320

Re: Anyone tilting heavy to international based on current forecasts?

Nope. World cap and staying that way.

I see the movement of stocks as a random walk. Valuations are high for the USA because optimism is high for future returns. Who am I to say that the optimism is wrong?
by Tamalak
Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keeping Portfolio at Global Market Cap
Replies: 8
Views: 851

Re: Keeping Portfolio at Global Market Cap

It would seem that new IPOs would also change the weight without changing the price. That is if there's a new IPO in the United States, that would increase the market cap of the USA Why do you think this would be the case? Because the market cap of the USA is the market cap of all the corporations ...
by Tamalak
Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keeping Portfolio at Global Market Cap
Replies: 8
Views: 851

Re: Keeping Portfolio at Global Market Cap

My question is in regards to how these two ETF's will compliment each other as global market caps change. It seems to me, if I started today (for simplicity) and put 56% of my investable funds in ITOT, and 44% in IXUS, and never invested anything else, these two funds with pretty much stay at the G...
by Tamalak
Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What’s your plan for a market downturn?
Replies: 114
Views: 10364

Re: What’s your plan for a market downturn?

In good times: buy and hold

In bad times: cry and hold
by Tamalak
Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International equities versus USA domestic
Replies: 6
Views: 537

Re: International equities versus USA domestic

Domestic-only is fine - for now. US and ex-US are highly correlated - for now. The USA is a large part of the world cap so you're getting a big chunk of it by investing US-only anyway - for now. But I don't know what the future will hold, and I don't wanna have to make hard choices if any of the abo...
by Tamalak
Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1976
Views: 367367

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

What is this "up" you speak of
by Tamalak
Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What % of your equity is int’l?
Replies: 141
Views: 8595

Re: What % of your equity is int’l?

World cap. ~48% and will follow world cap.
by Tamalak
Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is warren buffet okay with no owning any bonds?
Replies: 48
Views: 4852

Re: Why is warren buffet okay with no owning any bonds?

Buffett doesn't believe in investing in anything that doesn't move with inflation, neither do I. This is kinda why I am also in 100% stocks. I think stocks are the best way to not just grow your capital but to preserve it. The risks and downsides of stocks are more dramatic than other types of secu...
by Tamalak
Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is warren buffet okay with no owning any bonds?
Replies: 48
Views: 4852

Re: Why is warren buffet okay with no owning any bonds?

How is he okay with not owning any bonds at his age?
If Warren Buffett lost 99.99% of his net worth he'd be a multimillionaire.
by Tamalak
Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep calm and Boglehead on!
Replies: 60
Views: 6040

Re: Keep calm and Boglehead on!

Head down, plow ahead. The stock market always goes up. No guarantee for this. I think "keep calm and carry on" is great advice but calm should NOT be contingent on a certainty of a positive future. There isn't any such certainty. Stocks could go down for the next 50 years. Learn the skill of embra...
by Tamalak
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feel like I'm sinking money into international
Replies: 100
Views: 11955

Re: Feel like I'm sinking money into international

How does everyone else just stick to their IPS with no questions asked? Do you ever re-evaluate? International has sucked indeed, I have half my money in it and have since I started investing. I stick to my IPS because the reasons I put half my money in international have not changed. I may rage at...