Search found 607 matches

by Tamalak
Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15658

Re: Ditching International

I believe that the expected return for shareholders of Hertz common stock approaches $0. Is this incorrect? I think so. I imagine most of the shareholders of Hertz believe the expected returns is greater than 0, otherwise why would they hold it? If you can explain why anyone would own a stock with ...
by Tamalak
Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15658

Re: Ditching International

This thread highlights the importance of choosing a financial plan that you like and not one that's chosen for you. Either way segments of it will have lackluster performance.. but if someone else chose those segments it will emotionally be a lot more obnoxious to deal with. My AA is 50% internation...
by Tamalak
Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
Replies: 200
Views: 16173

Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy

People keep saying "nobody knows nothin" when it comes to this stuff, and that's appropriate for stocks. But from my understanding, 90% of bond returns is predicted by the yield of the bonds when you buy them. So if you bought bonds right now you're guaranteed garbage returns. They don't just look a...
by Tamalak
Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incredible Returns
Replies: 67
Views: 6115

Re: Incredible Returns

How do you all deal with friends/colleagues who keep telling you about their amazing, astronomical returns and are using a completely different investing approach than what is typically recommended by bogleheads. I have a co-worker who frequently shows me on his smartphone his recent trades and als...
by Tamalak
Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11555

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

That's hella optimistic. I don't "believe" it but it is reassuring :sharebeer

Maybe my 50% international will finally be worth a damn.. I can dream!
by Tamalak
Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Move from VTsax to sp500?
Replies: 9
Views: 893

Re: Move from VTsax to sp500?

I find it hard to believe that VOO vs VTI will have substantial performance difference. VTI is mainly large cap companies, too.
by Tamalak
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Any Bogleheads Consider Themselves Bears?
Replies: 51
Views: 2542

Re: Do Any Bogleheads Consider Themselves Bears?

Hahahaha at the very least you (and I) hold the expensive stuff that keeps getting pricier and the cheap stuff that can't get much cheaper. :D That's a perfect way to express how domestic and international has behaved in the last decade.. I tell myself that if you squish them together, they somehow...
by Tamalak
Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Any Bogleheads Consider Themselves Bears?
Replies: 51
Views: 2542

Re: Do Any Bogleheads Consider Themselves Bears?

I feel bearish, in the sense that I think a lot of the confidence in stocks to "always recover" and otherwise be a sure thing in the long run, is misplaced. Stocks have always recovered so far for us but that's survivorship bias.. if they hadn't recovered, we wouldn't be talking about them or consid...
by Tamalak
Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Bubble
Replies: 39
Views: 2265

Re: Market Bubble

Stocks sure seem crazy expensive right now compared to the underlying fundamentals. I think the driving force for that is there's nowhere else for money to go to make a profit.. bonds are dead. That's driving the demand, and price, for stocks up. I expect return on investment going forward to be pre...
by Tamalak
Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on International Index Funds
Replies: 36
Views: 2431

Re: Thoughts on International Index Funds

Good reason to avoid international: Taxation increases effective ER by 30 points, uncompensated currency volatility I'd add "I don't want to" as a good reason, too. Simplifies some of these discussions. Speaking personally, I don't think it's a good idea to simplify these discussions or try to boil...
by Tamalak
Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on International Index Funds
Replies: 36
Views: 2431

Re: Thoughts on International Index Funds

Good reason to include international: Diversification Bad reason to include international: Low P/E or CAPE ratio Good reason to avoid international: Taxation increases effective ER by 30 points, uncompensated currency volatility Bad reason to avoid international: Recent underperformance "Mr Bogle sa...
by Tamalak
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A Prodigal Boglehead Returns (poorer)
Replies: 32
Views: 4789

Re: A Prodigal Boglehead Returns (poorer)

I felt I had seen the corona drop coming This is so insidious - I had the same feeling. But then I realized I had seen the corona drop coming, but also seen it not coming - in other words I had imagined both possibilities. After the drop, it 'felt' like I had predicted it because memories of being ...
by Tamalak
Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone screwed up timing the market?
Replies: 94
Views: 8726

Re: Anyone screwed up timing the market?

In case anyone missed this, Druckenmiller confessed to screwing up the timing... Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said he's been 'humbled' by markets after missing out on the historic stock rally https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/druckenmiller-humbled-markets-missing-histori...
by Tamalak
Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone screwed up timing the market?
Replies: 94
Views: 8726

Re: Anyone screwed up timing the market?

this time was different :) That's the problem.. every time is different. All market crashes are unexpected by definition. So it's always tempting to think "this is the real one" and get out. And eventually that thought might even be right. I was pretty tempted to sell a couple weeks ago when the ma...
by Tamalak
Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has U.S oupterformed or has International underperformed?
Replies: 32
Views: 2195

Re: Has U.S oupterformed or has International underperformed?

I've noticed most fire calculators seem to use U.S total market for calculations and or past returns This drives me crazy. It's not just survivorship bias, it's best performer bias. It's like using bitcoin's 2017 returns as the standard investing and then comparing every other returns to that. I've...
by Tamalak
Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22100

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

F150HD wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:12 pm
click on his username, looks like OPs profile has been deleted.
Probably reregistering as "emotionguy"
by Tamalak
Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Equity Investors: What are you holding?
Replies: 30
Views: 2746

Re: 100% Equity Investors: What are you holding?

50% VTI, 50% VXUS about

I'm adjusting based on world capitalization. I should have bought VT, but the higher expense ratio drove me away.
by Tamalak
Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you a market timer if you sit on cash?
Replies: 26
Views: 2266

Re: Are you a market timer if you sit on cash?

If you are sitting on cash because of YOUR situation, you are not a market timer, you just have lower risk tolerance (fine!) If you are sitting on cash because of the MARKET's situation, you are a market timer (bad!) Thing is, the two are sometimes difficult to tell apart.. because very often person...
by Tamalak
Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How are the "100% Stocks" people doing?
Replies: 137
Views: 11750

Re: How are the "100% Stocks" people doing?

I've had my life savings invested in stocks for 5 years.. and at a certain point in this crisis I had lost every penny of gains :oops: My gains are STILL no better than very safe bonds at this point. Pretty frustrating. Thing is, I can't think of anything else I'd have realistically done with my mon...
by Tamalak
Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retail investors selling US stocks at record levels/WSJ article 12/8/19
Replies: 26
Views: 4010

Re: Retail investors selling US stocks at record levels/WSJ article 12/8/19

Always good to see people being cautious. The more of that there is the less likely we are to form a bubble.
by Tamalak
Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?
Replies: 296
Views: 22587

Re: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?

I consider BND = cash. I use it as my 2 year 'emergency fund'. The rest of my net worth is in stocks.
by Tamalak
Fri Dec 06, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: who here is tempted to pullback on stocks?
Replies: 142
Views: 35397

Re: who here is tempted to pullback on stocks?

I wouldn't pull the trigger even if I was tempted ("stay the course" blah blah), but I'm genuinely not tempted, either. VTI P/E is 20. VXUS is 14. Average 17. That anticipates a 6% real return, plus or minus good/bad news. I'm down for that. Plus, what's the alternative? 2% bonds? There's just nothi...
by Tamalak
Fri Dec 06, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US vs Intl Total Stock Market
Replies: 55
Views: 3937

Re: US vs Intl Total Stock Market

For those who invest in both a US total stock market fund and an International fund, what are the main reasons for holding both? Because diversification is the only free lunch, and I want as much free lunch as possible. Others have pointed out that the US/Intl are pretty well correlated, especially...
by Tamalak
Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?
Replies: 115
Views: 10304

Re: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?

Last month, after one too many tweets that costing me at closing time, I decided to bail out of stocks just above DOW 26,000, at least until this trade war gets settled. You'll never make any money in stocks like that. Stocks will rally LONG before the trade war, or any other negative, is settled. ...
by Tamalak
Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you doing about lantern flies?
Replies: 13
Views: 1473

Re: What are you doing about lantern flies?

These things are everywhere in the Malvern area. Entire trees are riddled with them sucking them dry. Their corpses all over the path I like to walk. The forest smells like it's ROTTING. And before this year I've never seen a single one. It feels like the end of the world.
by Tamalak
Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Replies: 30
Views: 3925

Re: Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Anyone afraid of missing a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Yup.

My fear of the ship sinking is less than my fear of the ship leaving without me.. so I always stay invested :sharebeer
by Tamalak
Thu Jun 27, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing a job in your 50's...
Replies: 451
Views: 68640

Re: Losing a job in your 50's...

I'm planning to retire at 40 and this is a big reason why.

Unfortunately that requires not having a woman or children.. but I guess that's what society wants us to do now :|
by Tamalak
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excluding International All Together?
Replies: 82
Views: 10572

Re: Excluding International All Together?

Good reason to include international:
Diversification

Bad reason to include international:
P/E or CAPE ratio

Good reason to avoid international:
Taxation increases effective ER by 30 points, uncompensated currency volatility

Bad reason to avoid international:
Recent underperformance
by Tamalak
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 27276

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

No way. Cryptocurrency is currency. The future expected return on it is 0 (plus inflation since it's not an inflationary currency). I'm not interested in buying it to make money any more than I'd be interested in buying a Peso to make money. I'll buy a Peso if I plan to visit Mexico. I'll buy crypto...
by Tamalak
Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash to investments
Replies: 31
Views: 2905

Re: Cash to investments

I am sitting on some cash in a taxable account. Invest it now or wait me til market corrects ? I know timing is discouraged here but common sense says market is overvalued. Goal is 60% stock. Any thoughts? When I have had large sums to invest, I have spread the investments over a 12 or 24 month per...
by Tamalak
Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 8595

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

Short summary of the article: Past performance indicates future results, therefore buy high and sell low. Yes. This is my whole concern. International has sucked in the recent PAST. Big deal right? Humans love to cultivate patterns in the past. Yet in the PRESENT I have been closing my eyes and pre...
by Tamalak
Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 8595

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

I don't get it. If the market is even a little bit efficient, how can international have inferior returns week after week after week? If it was like a sudden correction once due to new information that would be one thing. But I play a game where I look at VTI and ask "ok how much worse is internati...
by Tamalak
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How would you invest a lump sum of 3 million dollars in today's market?
Replies: 50
Views: 6374

Re: How would you invest a lump sum of 3 million dollars in today's market?

An investment of $3m does not need a large reserve of emergency cash, because the typical dividend yield of 2% will be able to throw off $60k dividend per year. You might want to invest this large sum conservatively just because preserving it could be just as important as obtaining gains from it. A...
by Tamalak
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 8595

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

I don't get it. If the market is even a little bit efficient, how can international have inferior returns week after week after week? If it was like a sudden correction once due to new information that would be one thing. But I play a game where I look at VTI and ask "ok how much worse is internatio...
by Tamalak
Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How would you invest a lump sum of 3 million dollars in today's market?
Replies: 50
Views: 6374

Re: How would you invest a lump sum of 3 million dollars in today's market?

VTI, VT, BND. Ratio's totally your choice. Anything except more than 75% BND is just fine.

Invest immediately, lump sum. If the market drops 10%, you lose 10% whether you've been invested 10 seconds or 10 years. Might as well dive all the way in now.
by Tamalak
Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Buy & Hold Index Investors "need" people to actively invest?
Replies: 26
Views: 2390

Re: Do Buy & Hold Index Investors "need" people to actively invest?

Yes, index investors need active investors because active investors set the prices.. they "decide" GOOG is worth $500 or whatever so they set bids at $499 and asks at $501 and wait for people to accept those offers. Passive investors accept whatever those offers are by policy. If there's ever a prob...
by Tamalak
Thu May 16, 2019 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is holding two total market index funds okay?
Replies: 6
Views: 733

Re: Is holding two total market index funds okay?

Your plan adds more complication than value but it won't be a disaster.
by Tamalak
Thu May 16, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?
Replies: 76
Views: 8791

Re: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?

Your grandma kicked butt, she deserves to enjoy her victory, not be lectured by her upstart grandkid armed with a bumper sticker.

Unless you think her retirement will be endangered by her current AA, and it doesn't sound like it is, back off :sharebeer
by Tamalak
Thu May 16, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you keep track of your TOTAL gains and losses from investments?
Replies: 4
Views: 545

Re: Do you keep track of your TOTAL gains and losses from investments?

You bet. Vanguard makes this easy in the performance tab :sharebeer

I love looking at it! Usually. Not last week :annoyed
by Tamalak
Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 18624

Re: Dump international?

I'll go out on a limb with my crystal ball and predict that US stock market cap will be down to 30% of world stock market cap by 2050. If so, that means total international will outperform US by about 2.3% annualized over the next 30 years. This isn't necessarily so. New IPOs increase market cap bu...
by Tamalak
Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 18624

Re: Dump international?

Today: International down 1%, US flat
Yesterday: International flat, US up 1%

This is just miserable lmao. I'm going to stick to my 50/50 allocation, but how many decades in a row can this go on if the markets are anywhere near efficient?
by Tamalak
Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whats the Point of Climbing the Corporate Ladder?
Replies: 164
Views: 19198

Re: Whats the Point of Climbing the Corporate Ladder?

I'm with the OP, happy with my current position and salary, and I've noticed that ranks above mine tend to increase in responsibility and work more than they do in salary.. unfortunately they plan to promote me soon. I need to get to that FIRE number quick..
by Tamalak
Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6508
Views: 548595

Re: "S&P 500 Index closes at record high"

Stock all time highs. Taylor: "See, stay the course works!"

Bottom of 2008 lows. Taylor: "Time for Plan B!!"

Alrighty then :wink:
by Tamalak
Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What, if anything, do I owe this guy?
Replies: 82
Views: 9087

Re: What, if anything, do I owe this guy?

Dude's a swindler, but you still should act with honor. IMO just call him and tell him you've reconsidered and have decided to manage your own assets. Don't explain yourself any further, draw a hard line there. That's the minimum you owe him and IMO should be the only thing you give him. Emotionally...
by Tamalak
Wed Apr 10, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Junk bonds undervalued due to boglehead popularity?
Replies: 51
Views: 5327

Junk bonds undervalued due to boglehead popularity?

Every time junk bonds are brought up here they're dismissed as kind of a pointless hybrid of the risk of stocks and the safety of bonds. The mantra here is that to the extent you want risk buy stocks and to the extent you want security buy (high quality) bonds. This implementation of buy-and-hold is...
by Tamalak
Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What role do bonds play in your portfolio?
Replies: 79
Views: 7801

Re: What role do bonds play in your portfolio?

Safety net. I have 1-2 years of expenses in bonds. Rest in stocks. By chance this gives me a 90/10% stock/bond ratio which is what is recommended for my age.
by Tamalak
Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 210
Views: 14044

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

At world market cap, whatever that is. At present about 50/50. I will maintain world market cap for the next 50 years of international underperformance :sharebeer
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]
Replies: 65
Views: 34497

Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report? [Arora Report]

I predict the market will prick her finger on the spindle of a spinning wheel.. AND DIE
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Working as a Senior Male is Wise...
Replies: 104
Views: 12865

Re: Why Working as a Senior Male is Wise...

I plan to retire at 40. Social stimulation is easily found online for me. I don't need a job for it, personally.