Search found 425 matches

by Tamalak
Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16431

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

For me the number is 666k. Multiply that by 2.25% (dividend rate of world stock) and you get 15k (poverty line of the USA).

Not a number I would retire on, but a number that makes me feel safe. Getting pretty close :D
by Tamalak
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6519

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

Average historical has been 6.6% real. 4% real I'll take and say thank you!
by Tamalak
Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?
Replies: 19
Views: 2844

Re: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?

-61% is only the most OUR stock market has been down. Survivorship bias. Our market is the most successful which is why people talk about it the most. The most ANY stock market has been down is 100%.
by Tamalak
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Advisor???
Replies: 11
Views: 673

Re: Financial Advisor???

Most financial advisors are scum. Run away. Do not use them. Educate yourself here. Your money isn't going anywhere :sharebeer
by Tamalak
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help picking Vanguard Index Funds.
Replies: 17
Views: 1969

Re: Need help picking Vanguard Index Funds.

VT and BND. You're welcome!
by Tamalak
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a stock today - Redfin (RDFN)
Replies: 286
Views: 19313

Re: I bought a stock today - Redfin (RDFN)

OP lays out reasons why Redfin is a good company. That is not the same as being a good investment.

Google and Amazon are expected to do very well in the future, but the share price reflects that expectation. Did the OP do any research as to whether Redfin is undervalued by the market?
by Tamalak
Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome
Replies: 20
Views: 1701

Re: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome

Thank you all. That illuminated a lot of my questions, including some unasked ones (like why long-term bonds holds any drawbacks at all over short-term ones if the ETFs for both are totally liquid). I see now that a lot of the risks involved with long-term bonds did not materialize in the last 10 ye...
by Tamalak
Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome
Replies: 20
Views: 1701

Re: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome

So if I understand right.. rising interest rates are BAD for those already holding bonds, because you've already locked yourself in to a lower rate of return. And falling interest rates are GOOD for those holding bonds because you've locked yourself into a better return than is in the present? So wi...
by Tamalak
Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random conversations regarding money
Replies: 44
Views: 4555

Re: Random conversations regarding money

mak1277 wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:22 pm
Wondering why it matters what anyone else invests in, or why anyone would get upset about another person's POV....
Same. If I encountered the guy OP did, I'd feel happy (at my own relative wisdom) and amused. I'd ask him for more of his thoughts.
by Tamalak
Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome
Replies: 20
Views: 1701

Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome

Stupid question as I'm an equity guy and don't understand bonds well. Forgive me. I'm specifically looking at the BLV ETF product from Vanguard. Why is the return so high compared to other bond types? Is 7.5% a realistic forward-looking return? The return seems more wobbly than most bond types but I...
by Tamalak
Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it stupid of me to comprise almost all of my portfolio with high dividend funds/etfs?
Replies: 16
Views: 964

Re: Is it stupid of me to comprise almost all of my portfolio with high dividend funds/etfs?

It is stupid, because you can make your own 'dividends' by just selling your stocks. I know it feels like killing the golden goose to do that, but the golden goose SHRINKS to form the dividends so it's really the same thing. That said, as long as you buy and hold, and you understand your risk tolera...
by Tamalak
Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?
Replies: 70
Views: 4061

Re: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?

You don't have to emotionally keep it together. Go ahead and panic as much as you like. Just don't touch the sell button.
by Tamalak
Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Investing Best For A 'rigged Market'? [insider trading]
Replies: 13
Views: 1112

Re: Passive Investing Best For A 'rigged Market'? [insider trading]

Insider trading just means that stocks are MORE fairly priced because insider information is being priced in.

This is bad news if you're trying to price discover without insider info (active trading) and neutral news if you're a passive investor.
by Tamalak
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to deal with regret
Replies: 87
Views: 7279

Re: How to deal with regret

About one year ago I invested quite a large sum of money in stocks over a few month period. Now I am seeing the gains being rapidly wiped out and I fear that I will soon begin to see some losses. What did you invest in? My gains for the past year are nowhere close to being "wiped out". I'm in Europ...
by Tamalak
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Started first big investment 2 weeks ago - Sell quick?
Replies: 29
Views: 1841

Re: Started first big investment 2 weeks ago - Sell quick?

" I'm fully in the "hold+invest+buy" camp for investing, but it just seems sensible to sell right now?"

Uhh
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261526

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I just wish Lbill could be here to share this moment with us :(
by Tamalak
Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There is no precise plan
Replies: 16
Views: 2020

Re: There is no precise plan

"In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable."

-Eisenhower
by Tamalak
Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should we care about inflation?
Replies: 58
Views: 4985

Re: Why should we care about inflation?

If you have cash or are owed money, inflation is bad

If you owe money, inflation is good

Otherwise it doesn't affect you.

With most of my net worth in stocks, I don't worry about inflation at all.
by Tamalak
Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 169
Views: 31529

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

About 50-50 last I checked, but only because the world cap is at that.

I don't see the need to tilt.
by Tamalak
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%
Replies: 47
Views: 4661

Re: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%

100% equity bull here. 0.44% is to laugh at for someone who's absorbed the past few years of market returns :sharebeer
by Tamalak
Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 237
Views: 20519

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

I worry about the focus on stocks/bonds. Those aren't the only sources of wealth creation in the world, so to the extent that there are others, we're tilting. As the world changes, stocks may become an anachronism. We'll have to adapt, if not our thinking, possibly our methodology. (P.S. those Bogle...
by Tamalak
Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 0% growth on stocks for the next decade?
Replies: 16
Views: 1985

Re: 0% growth on stocks for the next decade?

I didn't become a Boglehead because I think Bogle is an oracle. I became a Boglehead because I think no-one is an oracle.
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 309
Views: 30310

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Since Jan 1 things have gotten truly eye popping!
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Adm)??
Replies: 70
Views: 5706

Re: 100% VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Adm)??

100% VTSAX(domestic)/VTIAX(international) according to world cap. More than 90% of my net worth is in that and has been since Sept. 2015.. so I have yet to be tested :twisted: I am shocked and grateful at the incredible bull market of the last year plus. I intend to remain 100% stocks rain or shine.
by Tamalak
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.
Replies: 175
Views: 8947

Re: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.

I certainly prefer "unactionable" "I finally reached a million and I want to share the excitement, it's too dangerous to tell family and friends so let me share it with you Bogleheads!" threads vs "actionable" "I am 14 years old and have 5 million dollars, am I doing ok? ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)"
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever
Replies: 55
Views: 5631

Re: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever

... I consider the stock market a random walk more than anything else. Gains are gains. They require no reversion to the mean. If they did, the market would account for that and revert right now. Good point: I think people often forget, or erroneously believe, that the data are a function of "the m...
by Tamalak
Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever
Replies: 55
Views: 5631

Re: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever

I put my life savings into World Stock at cap in Sept 2015 and I cannot believe this meltup :shock: I'm in the accumulation phase, and I still celebrate the rising prices. The prices rise for a reason. If I'm going to buy potatoes and they're on sale because they're spoiled, that's not good news. If...
by Tamalak
Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's up with VTI and VXUS?
Replies: 8
Views: 1034

Re: What's up with VTI and VXUS?

Yay, money dollars! Sigh. So you just saw your VTI and VXUS holdings take a dump but you’re celebrating getting a dividend? Cognitive dissonance or are you being sarcastic. When I get money, I feel happy. If this is cognitive dissonance then I plead guilty! This is all well and good as long as you ...
by Tamalak
Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's up with VTI and VXUS?
Replies: 8
Views: 1034

Re: What's up with VTI and VXUS?

TropikThunder wrote:
Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:26 pm
Tamalak wrote:
Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:53 am
Yay, money dollars!
Sigh. So you just saw your VTI and VXUS holdings take a dump but you’re celebrating getting a dividend? Cognitive dissonance or are you being sarcastic.
When I get money, I feel happy. If this is cognitive dissonance then I plead guilty!
by Tamalak
Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's up with VTI and VXUS?
Replies: 8
Views: 1034

Re: What's up with VTI and VXUS?

Yay, money dollars!
by Tamalak
Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's up with VTI and VXUS?
Replies: 8
Views: 1034

What's up with VTI and VXUS?

Dumb question. But when I type VTI or VXUS into google they seemed to have a big plunge between yesterday and today, but that is not reflected in the daily change number. Both are lower now than they were at the end of yesterday, but the daily change shows as very positive. Were there distributions ...
by Tamalak
Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: going to cash w present instability
Replies: 62
Views: 9832

Re: going to cash w present instability

I'm 100% stocks and nothing about the present market makes me particularly doubt that allocation. You must have huge labor capital ahead of you, a huge portfolio, great fortitude, or big somethings... Most of us average folks hang out in in the 25/75 to 75/25 asset allocation territory. https://www...
by Tamalak
Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: going to cash w present instability
Replies: 62
Views: 9832

Re: going to cash w present instability

There's always instability. Past, present and future. I'm 100% stocks and nothing about the present market makes me particularly doubt that allocation. That said, you're 85 years old and you have $3 million. If going all-cash makes sense for anyone, it makes sense for you. What's the price of a good...
by Tamalak
Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 104
Views: 11037

Re: Past Performance ?

Bogleheads: When I am unsure, I listen to experts: Jack Bogle: "The biggest mistake investors make is looking backward at performance and thinking it’ll recur in the future." Bill Schultheis, adviser and author of The Coffeehouse Investor : "Using past performance numbers as a method for choosing m...
by Tamalak
Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 104
Views: 11037

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:53 pm

Past performance does not forecast future performance.
How can this AND RTM both be true? If something outperforms for a while, doesn't RTM forecast future poorer performance and vice versa?
by Tamalak
Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why am I still scared ? Is it actually normal ?
Replies: 81
Views: 13583

Re: Why am I still scared ? Is it actually normal ?

I would say I am generally happy, I have a great family and everybody is healthy by God's grace. I still keep thinking I could have done better and made and saved more. Financial independence is very important to me and I want to be in a situation where I do not want to be stressed about a job. Not...
by Tamalak
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do Bogleheads say when they don't want to spend money?
Replies: 103
Views: 5877

Re: What do Bogleheads say when they don't want to spend money?

"No"

If I'm feeling nice, "No thanks"

The actions you take with your money do not require an explanation.
by Tamalak
Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?
Replies: 149
Views: 17118

Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

He's a business man and a smart one at that,.... and you're a fireman/paramedic. What do you think you should tell him? :happy I kid, no knock on fire fighter or paramedics. I would tell him..... nothing. Let him do as he pleases with this. Haha. He is a firefighter and a paramedic too. That’s how ...
by Tamalak
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 7356

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

That something appreciates quickly does not classify it as 'a bubble'.

Bitcoin is a bubble if its rational value is much less than its market value. So, is it?
by Tamalak
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 331
Views: 57237

Re: Retreat to cash

GoldenFinch wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:45 pm
Someone I know who went to cash in the summer of 2014 and stayed out waiting for the big crash just went to 100% equities last week.

:confused
Probably means we're about to crash.

When the last bear gives up, the bull market ends.
When the last bull gives up, the bear market ends.
by Tamalak
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 21124

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Is there any real value behind bitcoin other than the belief that someone in the future will pay more for a coin? Will scalability challenges eventually reach a tipping point and trigger a doomsday scenario crash leaving bitcoin owners with nothing in the end? Personally I am very surprised by all ...
by Tamalak
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 21124

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Bitcoin is a currency. It's not a good investment in terms of average expected future returns (which is zero for any currency). But it's not a scam, either.

I would buy bitcoin if I wanted to use it as a currency is meant to be used.. to buy stuff.
by Tamalak
Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inspiration to Work After You've Already "Won"?
Replies: 17
Views: 1764

Re: Inspiration to Work After You've Already "Won"?

I'm less inspired, I feel like I don't have the same spark, and I feel like most of my work isn't as good as things I've done a couple years ago... You're past the point where this even matters. Continue to write music if you enjoy writing it. You don't have to judge yourself any more at all. The w...
by Tamalak
Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 309
Views: 30310

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

No, not tired in the least. The more the market goes up, the more of a correction it would take to break even.
by Tamalak
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pile of Cash - What to do
Replies: 25
Views: 3168

Re: Pile of Cash - What to do

What is your 1.3 mil invested in?
by Tamalak
Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 278
Views: 39327

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

Huh. OP pulling out was the same month and year that I finally entered the market (100% VT, hundreds of thousands of dollars).

I've been pretty happy with the results!
by Tamalak
Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How old are you and how much do you save for retirement a year
Replies: 150
Views: 14290

Re: How old are you and how much do you save for retirement a year

Age 34. Make about 90k. Save about 45k/yr. Have presently 410k. Want to leanFIRE at about 1million at age 40+. Or at least change careers to something less lucrative and more fun.
by Tamalak
Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. & International Allocation
Replies: 56
Views: 6297

Re: U.S. & International Allocation

To the original point however, a 50% Total Stock and 50% Total International has to be a "sweat spot" for Bogleheads in terms of simplicity and not speculating on the future direction of the domestic and international markets. I really think this, and any other 'static percentage' allocations (incl...
by Tamalak
Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the One investment to rule them all?
Replies: 25
Views: 3541

Re: the One investment to rule them all?

My rule of thumb is.. 4% withdrawal rate is safe if you're retiring at a standard age, 3% is safe if you're retiring young, and 2% will increase your portfolio even if you retire young. So think about the ABSOLUTE MINIMUM you could retire on and multiply by 50, that's one number. Now think about wha...
by Tamalak
Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emotional impact of spending down assets?
Replies: 100
Views: 10849

Re: Emotional impact of spending down assets?

Because people, no matter what they tell themselves they feel and what others tell them they should feel, don't want to die.

But as a society it's so impolite to express that opinion that people are in denial that they have it, and then get confused by their own emotions :confused