Search found 540 matches

by Tamalak
Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Motley Fools is now for fools only?.....RIP
Replies: 24
Views: 5167

Re: Motley Fools is now for fools only?.....RIP

I credit Fools for introducing me to the idea that the expense ratio of a fund is incredibly important.

Fortunately I identified most of their nonsense for what it was.
by Tamalak
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise of Passive Investing - Are we missing something?
Replies: 18
Views: 3117

Re: The Rise of Passive Investing - Are we missing something?

It's a good question and one worth revisiting. History is full of examples of the dangers of bandwagoning and like it or not, index investing is a bandwagon right now, big time. Others have already mentioned that there's no problem with the loss of active investors. We always had way more active inv...
by Tamalak
Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you "Stay the Course"?
Replies: 78
Views: 10675

Re: How do you "Stay the Course"?

How do you "stay the course"?
By being as emotional as I please, and peeking whenever I want, but simply choosing not ever to stray from my investment protocol.

Stoicism is better and simpler than any other emotional strategy imo. For investing and life in general.
by Tamalak
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?
Replies: 18
Views: 1939

Re: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?

You can always draw a line thru an asset's historical value and say "look! It keeps reverting to this mean!" I don't believe in it at all. Good news is good, profit is profit. Bad news is bad, losses are losses. There is no magical karmic balancing force that says one needs to lead to the other. The...
by Tamalak
Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you all staying the course?
Replies: 114
Views: 7212

Re: Are you all staying the course?

100% stocks and half of that international, I'm taking a beating this year, but not even tempted to stray from the course :sharebeer
by Tamalak
Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market
Replies: 38
Views: 5260

Re: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market

Here's a crazy strategy. Get out of the overvalued stock market now, and then dollar-average back in over 3-month intervals. Why would you want to buy something you know is overvalued at all, even with DCA? That IS crazy. Why do you think stocks are overvalued? I have no idea if they're overvalued ...
by Tamalak
Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market
Replies: 38
Views: 5260

Re: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market

CULater wrote:
Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:16 pm
Here's a crazy strategy. Get out of the overvalued stock market now, and then dollar-average back in over 3-month intervals.
Why would you want to buy something you know is overvalued at all, even with DCA? That IS crazy.
by Tamalak
Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett Repurchases More Than $900 Million of Stock: is the stock market overpriced?
Replies: 10
Views: 2848

Re: Buffett Repurchases More Than $900 Million of Stock: is the stock market overpriced?

Buffett's strategy is to find "fish in a bucket" to shoot. He only makes a move when he sees an opportunity that is 100% obvious to him. If he doesn't see an overwhelmingly safe and easy opportunity he is perfectly content to do nothing in particular for years. So no, it does not mean the stock mark...
by Tamalak
Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple's share plummeting: should we 'kick out the largest stock' as Rob Arnott suggests?
Replies: 40
Views: 2105

Re: Apple's share plummeting: should we 'kick out the largest stock' as Rob Arnott suggests?

Isn't it pretty well known that larger caps underperform smaller caps in the long term on average because they're also less volatile/risky? So it would make sense that the largest cap out there would underperform the market. I can see the logic in tilting away from large cap, but I'm already 100% st...
by Tamalak
Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is an "advanced" investor?
Replies: 34
Views: 2597

Re: What is an "advanced" investor?

"advanced" investor is a totally arbitrary term.

To me, an advanced investor is someone who actually practices price discovery well enough to beat the market more than randomly.
by Tamalak
Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no dividends in index funds!
Replies: 95
Views: 9394

Re: no dividends in index funds!

When you're paid a dividend, it's like taking a dollar out of your wallet and putting it in your pocket. You already owned the thing that had the money in it so you already owned the money before the dividend. We all buy shares of companies because we want to profit, and profit feels 'real' when it'...
by Tamalak
Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else feel giddy every time VXUS gets creamed? [Vanguard Total International]
Replies: 69
Views: 6283

Re: Anyone else feel giddy every time VXUS gets creamed? [Vanguard Total International]

I wish I felt the same as OP, but I think VXUS's constant, and I mean constant underperformance compared to VTI is due to an increasing awareness that the world outside the US is just determined to fail :oops: Nonetheless.. will continue to balance to world cap. I shall follow my investment plan off...
by Tamalak
Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 17396

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

I have about 1 year's worth of expenses in bonds. The rest in stocks. I see no reason not to do this even later in the accumulation phase. I consider stocks the best way not just to make money but to preserve your buying power. Stock crashes are dramatic but imo the eating away of value by inflation...
by Tamalak
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106982

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

zonto wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:15 am
Tamalak wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:55 am
Then it's REALLY good news the entire world outside the USA has gone nowhere in 10 years. Absolute garbage :oops:
Kind of like how the U.S. market went nowhere for the 10 years comprising the 2000s. Was that absolute garbage too?
Yes :D
by Tamalak
Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106982

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Then it's REALLY good news the entire world outside the USA has gone nowhere in 10 years. Absolute garbage :oops:
by Tamalak
Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: flat for the year
Replies: 27
Views: 2587

Re: flat for the year

Flat for the year? I'm jealous.

I sure do wish international would decide to stop being trash for a little while.. :|
by Tamalak
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50,000: Should I buy now or wait for the market to drop further?
Replies: 43
Views: 7122

Re: $50,000: Should I buy now or wait for the market to drop further?

The best time to invest in the market is 40+ years ago. So get it in now so you can get to that point.
by Tamalak
Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds... Why do people bother with them. ?
Replies: 71
Views: 7564

Re: Bonds... Why do people bother with them. ?

I use bonds as a buffer. I keep one full year of expenses in them. That's a small part of my portfolio so it doesn't inhibit returns much, but it'll definitely help me sleep if the market crashes!
by Tamalak
Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why won't the US markets average 0-2% (or 10-20%) real returns for a few decades?
Replies: 20
Views: 2851

Re: Why won't the US markets average 0-2% (or 10-20%) real returns for a few decades?

I think the real question here is why has the historical real returns always been 6-7%? It's been far from steady decade by decade, but if you package good decades with bad it always seems to hit that mark.

The follow up is, is this likely to continue?
by Tamalak
Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Helping a sibling
Replies: 26
Views: 3150

Re: Helping a sibling

If the sibling hasn't asked for help and complained about their funds are being handled, don't touch them.

If the market goes south after you 'educate' them they will blame you for losses.
by Tamalak
Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment types in a no-growth environment
Replies: 35
Views: 2781

Re: Investment types in a no-growth environment

I'd invest in the same stuff I always would. Businesses would still make money.

An apple farm would still sell apples for 10% more than the cost of producing them and give me the difference, even if neither the sales nor technology grow.
by Tamalak
Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equities as a hedge against inflation
Replies: 36
Views: 2611

Re: Equities as a hedge against inflation

A stock is a share of a company.. a company is made up of a lot of things, inventory, land, buildings, employees, IP, cash, debt etc.

Of all that, only the cash and debt get eaten by inflation, and you WANT debt to get eaten. So it seems like equities are a good protection to me.
by Tamalak
Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 74
Views: 8093

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

Interesting article on Siegel and Shiller that I thought I’d share here: http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/siegel-shiller-stock-market/ Siegel: - The CAPE ratio might be permanently higher due to indexing lowering costs for investors (an interesting argument that I had not heard of before)...
by Tamalak
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 74
Views: 8093

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

Interesting article on Siegel and Shiller that I thought I’d share here: http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/siegel-shiller-stock-market/ Siegel: - The CAPE ratio might be permanently higher due to indexing lowering costs for investors (an interesting argument that I had not heard of before)...
by Tamalak
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 74
Views: 8093

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

Let me see if I understand how the bond market works and why Siegel is wrong. Say I buy a bond fund for $100 when yield is 2%. So they're gonna yield $2 a year. Then, without warning, yield rises to 4%. At that moment, people can get $4 for $100, so nobody in their right mind would buy my $2-yield b...
by Tamalak
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Im going to die somewhere between Bankruptcy and $20 million
Replies: 46
Views: 9738

Re: Im going to die somewhere between Bankruptcy and $20 million

3) In real life, just about the uniform experience is that all attempts to estimate the probability of low-probability events underestimate them--badly. The risk model for a meltdown at Three Mile Island suggests that what happened should have only happened once in 30,000 years. The events that led...
by Tamalak
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9427

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

It's pretty simple. Passive investors depend on active investors to set the price. More specifically, passive investors depend on active investors setting up Bid and Asks. If you want to know the 'cut' active investors are demanding for their work, just look at the spread between Bid and Ask. Right ...
by Tamalak
Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review, Age 31, $1.5 million net worth
Replies: 38
Views: 8451

Re: Portfolio Review, Age 31, $1.5 million net worth

Stay single and don't cultivate a drug addiction, and you're set for life :beer
by Tamalak
Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (No Savings) *Everything* in S&P 500?
Replies: 33
Views: 3968

Re: (No Savings) *Everything* in S&P 500?

I love stocks, I think they're not just the best way to grow your wealth but the best way to preserve your buying power. But even I have a year's worth of expenses in bonds. Everything ELSE is in VT.
by Tamalak
Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?
Replies: 77
Views: 8825

Re: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?

Another reason we expect it to keep growing is that the price adjusts itself to something that is reasonably expected to provide a positive return.

If a positive return is not expected, the price would plummet until it was.
by Tamalak
Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?
Replies: 72
Views: 3184

Re: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?

Who's deciding what the categories are? I could make a separate category for my niece's lemonade stand and suddenly it makes sense to give that as much money as the entire health care industry (which will be all the more profitable after people drink her lemonade :twisted: ) If one industry has 3x t...
by Tamalak
Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Massive Student Loan Debt - Fiancee
Replies: 108
Views: 10543

Re: Massive Student Loan Debt - Fiancee

I love this woman, but she doesn't seem to comprehend the gravity of the situation. I love her, but I agonize about our future. How much of a red flag should this be? If the PSLF program were to fail, it seems paying back the debt would be insurmountable. How much is this me being shallow vs. a val...
by Tamalak
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hypothetical Question - Market Timing
Replies: 43
Views: 2512

Re: Hypothetical Question - Market Timing

If there's a 50% drop, that cuts in half the money of anyone who's invested.

So if you invest after the drop, you will have twice as much money at all points in time as you would have if you invested before the drop.
by Tamalak
Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A case for holding international bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1276

Re: A case for holding international bonds

International stocks are going so well, I'm definitely going to buy up the world 'cap' bond fund when it comes out!
by Tamalak
Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a low-cost person...
Replies: 14
Views: 1324

Re: As a low-cost person...

I started investing in retirement funds <2 yrs ago. I heard about AA, and I know bond is important. But whenever I look at the bond performance, I just don't know how to make sense of it, since it's just slightly better than cds... :confused Bond returns have been lousy lately because they're mainl...
by Tamalak
Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a low-cost person...
Replies: 14
Views: 1324

Re: As a low-cost person...

I'm kind of in your position, mid-30s, high savings rate (but not as high as yours!) My policy is to keep half a year of income or a year of expenses (whichever's higher) in bonds, and the rest in stocks. 10k in cash. "stocks" = VT ETF, "bonds" = BND ETF. Simple plan and it's worked great so far! R...
by Tamalak
Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a low-cost person...
Replies: 14
Views: 1324

Re: As a low-cost person...

I'm kind of in your position, mid-30s, high savings rate (but not as high as yours!) My policy is to keep half a year of income or a year of expenses (whichever's higher) in bonds, and the rest in stocks. 10k in cash. "stocks" = VT ETF, "bonds" = BND ETF. Simple plan and it's worked great so far! Ra...
by Tamalak
Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are you not compensated for taking unsystematic risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2482

Re: Why are you not compensated for taking unsystematic risk?

You are rewarded for taking unsystemic risk, if you have good reason to believe that the individual stock you're buying is too cheap. This is called price discovery. Investing this way is so difficult, it's basically an entire job, though. Without the skills for price discovery, you have no business...
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106982

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

5. Currency Risk: International stocks are denominated in foreign currencies. The US dollar is up this year, international stocks are down. Last year it was the opposite. Why take on the risk associated with the never-ending changes to the currency exchange rate ? I don't see currency "risk" as rea...
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106982

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Total World Index with a bond fund and be done with it. Look at it once a year. Looking g at daily flicuations and these threads will drive you crazy. VT ER = .10 (VTI ER = .04 + VXUS ER = .11) / 2 = .075 It's lower average ER to slice and dice the two. :) Simplicity is awesome, but cheaper is even...
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young investor: How to stay the course? How to not think about investing all the time?
Replies: 16
Views: 2216

Re: Young investor: How to stay the course? How to not think about investing all the time?

I don't resist the obsession. Check the market every day. If I'm already paying for the excitement of gambling, why not enjoy it? :sharebeer
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8547
Views: 1672494

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I love that stocks for the long run chart. Did we really have no inflation for 130 years??
by Tamalak
Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do you put away in investments?
Replies: 66
Views: 5537

Re: How much do you put away in investments?

50k, more than half my after tax income.

I hope to retire by 40 :D
by Tamalak
Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106982

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Here's a more uptodate chart: "The chart shows the values of the S&P 500 Index’s returns minus the MSCI World ex USA Index’s returns.": https://www.hartfordfunds.com/insights/client-conversations/USAndInternationalMarketsHaveMovedInCycles.html This chart seems to be used in a lot of mutual fund adv...
by Tamalak
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?
Replies: 81
Views: 9476

Re: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?

Every single day. It's like a daily football game where I win or lose thousands! Why would I miss the excitement? :sharebeer

There are no behavioral consequences for me. I'll rage when things go badly and cheer when things go well. And in all cases, stick to the very simple plan.
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 17, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106982

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I rarely change my beliefs when I'm in an argument, because if I hold a position strongly enough to defend it in an argument, I'm not likely to let go of it.

But witnessing arguments is often very helpful to get me some perspective on an issue I'm not strong in.
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 17, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 10603

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

Please tell me these are real returns. I suspect not.
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106982

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

9 pages in. I have to ask. Has a single person changed their position having read or participated in this thread? :shock: :oops: :sharebeer No, because I've already settled on my approach to international. BUT, I read about five topics like this before I was able to do that. They did help me!
by Tamalak
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106982

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Remember: ***it's all is priced in*** Only to the extent that the efficient market hypothesis is true. Not many financial academics believe that it's strictly accurate anymore. I don't believe that the market is necessarily efficient, only that it tries its best to equalize expected risk adjusted r...
by Tamalak
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106982

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Remember: ***it's all is priced in*** Only to the extent that the efficient market hypothesis is true. Not many financial academics believe that it's strictly accurate anymore. I don't believe that the market is necessarily efficient, only that it tries its best to equalize expected risk adjusted r...