Search found 113 matches

by APB
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we temporarily reduce our retirement contributions in order to pay off our $400k mortgage in 7 years?
Replies: 83
Views: 7595

Re: Should we temporarily reduce our retirement contributions in order to pay off our $400k mortgage in 7 years?

Mathematically no. Emotionally . . . maybe? You two are doing fantastic, and with your discipline, if you really want to, I'm sure you'll still continue to have a very bright financial present and future. But will it really end up feeling better if everyone here told you it was suboptimal? Just some...
by APB
Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do normal people afford the Bay Area?
Replies: 48
Views: 5529

Re: How do normal people afford the Bay Area?

They make tradeoffs. Some initial points on your framing of the question below. Median family income in the Bay Area is closer to $100K. Most median families in SF do not live in a 3 BR 2 BA in what you'd consider a good school district. Buying a house in San Francisco is very expensive relative to ...
by APB
Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Move: Please convince me why I should not work in tech
Replies: 74
Views: 8840

Re: Career Move: Please convince me why I should not work in tech

Been working in "Tier 1 tech" for a while, and have a lot of exposure to those on the academic side as well. Couple themes that I'm seeing claimed here with my thoughts. 1) Researchers are underpaid relative to tech This does seem to be true. But, generally when people are paid less, it boils down t...
by APB
Mon May 14, 2018 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Review of assert allocation for possible house downpayment
Replies: 12
Views: 861

Re: Review of assert allocation for possible house downpayment

You sound pretty flexible on whether to purchase a house vs. rent, that's wise. Homes have a certain expected return, and that return varies based on rent-to-buy ratios, expenses, and interest rates for mortgages. I'd agree it makes sense to wait until you have more assets, and maintain the flexible...
by APB
Sat Apr 21, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to be 100% in stock index funds ,
Replies: 31
Views: 3619

Re: Want to be 100% in stock index funds ,

I think I can do ok without taking anything out of my portfolio for the first 5 years or so Perhaps you could clarify this point. Are you working the next 5 years? How will you afford to live? If you are working the next 5-years, how would you feel about rolling the dice on working more or less yea...
by APB
Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Retirement Investment for Teacher
Replies: 24
Views: 2094

Re: Help with Retirement Investment for Teacher

Welcome! First off, I'd direct you to the guide to asking portfolio questions: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6212 With clearer inputs, you'll get better answers. :) Regardless, will quickly address my opinions on some of your questions: 1) How aggressive should your investing be? ...
by APB
Mon Mar 19, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Closing Acorns account.
Replies: 1
Views: 885

Re: Closing Acorns account.

I don't have acorns, but I did used to have Wealthfront in taxable (the amount that they managed for free). I canceled my Wealthfront account as I wanted to manage my own investments, and not incur the drag of additional fees. If it's a small amount, dumping it in VTSAX (total US stock market) seems...
by APB
Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing 401k and increasing taxable
Replies: 6
Views: 1544

Re: Reducing 401k and increasing taxable

Nope. :) The article has flawed math, bordering on nonsense. If you are betting on having a higher tax rate in retirement, you can save via Roth IRA or Roth 401K. If you think your rates will be lower in retirement, a 401K is better. Both are dramatically more tax efficient than saving in “taxable” ...
by APB
Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any reason not to open a 529? (young investor)
Replies: 21
Views: 1860

Re: Any reason not to open a 529? (young investor)

This post sent me down an hour and a half rabbit hole learning everything about 529s. For me, seems like it's worth at least getting the NY state tax break for the $5K / year contribution. Worst case, I have sufficient family options to change the beneficiary in the unlikely event that a change in p...
by APB
Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% stock mutual funds/ETFs with low drawdowns during 2008
Replies: 16
Views: 1518

Re: 100% stock mutual funds/ETFs with low drawdowns during 2008

TANSTAAFL Stocks generate excess returns due to the risk premium associated with taking a 50% nose dive in a 2008 scenario. The quest for low risk, high return stocks (or investments for that matter) is typically futile. So . . . there may be baskets of stocks out there that only decline half as muc...
by APB
Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pros and Cons of High Rise Condos for retired couple
Replies: 47
Views: 5882

Re: Pros and Cons of High Rise Condos for retired couple

I'm quite familiar with the area. Based on their strong financial position and limited space needs they can afford to live anywhere in the world. Their desired location is a nice one, as are many neighborhoods in San Francisco (if you can afford it). I'd echo the suggestion to rent for a year if the...
by APB
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you time the market when you have to?
Replies: 14
Views: 1238

Re: How do you time the market when you have to?

Whenever convenient / ASAP. Nobody can consistently time short term fluctuations anyways.

I think it's better to worry about things in our control - savings rates, low fees, career moves, etc.
by APB
Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: On the video games path - how to set it up with younger kids
Replies: 36
Views: 2667

Re: On the video games path - how to set it up with younger kids

6 and 9? Don't know whether 6 is too young. I guess my first game system I was probably 8 or 9. My parents put modestly strict limits, mostly during weekdays. I have great memories of playing games with friends, and I have no regrets. I'm very high achieving now under normal measures (salary, educat...
by APB
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bloom - cheap robo advisor for 401k
Replies: 9
Views: 1731

Re: Bloom - cheap robo advisor for 401k

Looked into it online for a bit, seems like it hooks into your 401K and automates the fund selection and management. My thoughts are below, but ultimately I think that nothing beats equipping oneself with sufficient Boglehead knowledge to DIY. Pros: - They place a strong emphasis on fee reduction wi...
by APB
Sat Aug 19, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kitchen knife set. Good quality - Recommendations
Replies: 55
Views: 7921

Re: Kitchen knife set. Good quality - Recommendations

First option is perfect. 2nd option has some specialty blades I'd imagine you will use less frequently.
by APB
Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International allocation. (Total World)
Replies: 23
Views: 4164

Re: International allocation. (Total World)

Makes sense. If VT was the same cost as it's component funds, I would take this same strategy. I only buy my US, EM, and Ex-us developed separately because I can save a bit on the expense ratio.
by APB
Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wife's Money - 50K - Her Advisor vs My DIY - Help
Replies: 67
Views: 7299

Re: Wife's Money - 50K - Her Advisor vs My DIY - Help

We are going back to this Advisor next week and I'm going to propose this AA(60:40 with the following Funds) and let's see what the Advisor says ? Truly appreciate your feedback before we see this advisor next week as we already paid him $500 for 2 hrs/2 visits. I'd caution you to re-read over the ...
by APB
Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Savings & Investments in order of priority
Replies: 7
Views: 1265

Re: Savings & Investments in order of priority

Looks good to me. I can't think of any other tax advantaged ways to accumulate assets. As long as you have enough in taxable (won't need to draw from 1 - 5 till retirement, college, and emergencies), seems optimal. Good job saving!
by APB
Wed Dec 07, 2016 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 166
Views: 26275

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

"I encourage you to run the math on whether you have enough. I bet you can spend under 1 mil per year with some very very basic prioritization." Actually, my annual expenses are in that range. Of course I could cut costs but I'm not ready to do that yet. My one true luxury "frivolous" expense is Ne...
by APB
Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 166
Views: 26275

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

It depends on you. I have a NW of over 30mm (9mm real estate and 21mm stocks/bonds/cash) and no debt. I'm 51 years old and I would like to retire but I am not yet confident in doing it. On the one hand, life can be short so I would prefer to do exactly what I want each day. On the other hand a poss...
by APB
Mon Nov 28, 2016 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on my investments?
Replies: 16
Views: 2766

Re: Thoughts on my investments?

You are doing an exceptional job saving, and staying at home and saving till you can increase income is very prudent. I suggest a 3 fund portfolio, set it and forget it. Posts regarding increasing your income are correct. One way or another, you need to boost that, as you have an income problem. Ite...
by APB
Thu Nov 24, 2016 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Types of Assets HNWI Boomers Own
Replies: 21
Views: 3983

Re: Types of Assets HNWI Boomers Own

The cutoff for high NW, tall, big, small . . . is subjective. $3 mil is around 97 percentile net worth. A 6' 3" male in the United States is roughly 97 percentile on height. I would classify 2-3 standard deviations above average as both tall and high NW. The fact that I can think of someone that's t...
by APB
Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance Technologies - Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other
Replies: 54
Views: 8279

Re: Renaissance Technologies - Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other

Interesting to see the outsized returns. Perhaps it indicates that those with PHDs running math departments and spending years codebreaking should consider quantitative trading? :) Credit where it's due, Simons is worth $16.5 Billion and most of his life points to him being a genius. In hindsight, h...
by APB
Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you track your net worth? How long have you done so?
Replies: 110
Views: 11558

Re: Do you track your net worth? How long have you done so?

In a way, I've tracked my NW since 18, as I had to keep account of the amount I owed my parents for school during college. It's been 9 years since then, and things have progressed steadily in the 4.5 years I've been out of school. For those not naturally inclined to invest, I find the NW tracker can...
by APB
Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Total Return (Larry Swedroe Question)
Replies: 56
Views: 6953

Re: Real Total Return (Larry Swedroe Question)

I don't think that is correct. The real total return is ~6.5% (4.5% + 2%). If you account for average inflation at 3%, Nominal Total return is 9.5% The real earnings growth rate is 2% Average dividend yield is 4.5% Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is why the average PE ratio is ~15 You're ignoring...
by APB
Wed Nov 16, 2016 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Total Return (Larry Swedroe Question)
Replies: 56
Views: 6953

Re: Real Total Return (Larry Swedroe Question)

All I can say is: if there is 2% inflation 1 yr.; and their earnings increase to match; then their price should also match it if they're valued the same as the year b4. Then P/E stays same. I just thought about that. You are absolutely correct! I think that's the piece of the puzzle I was missing. ...
by APB
Wed Nov 16, 2016 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Total Return (Larry Swedroe Question)
Replies: 56
Views: 6953

Re: Real Total Return (Larry Swedroe Question)

Hey! You guys ignore me like I'm not in the thread haha FINE! Just kidding PEs are above 15, but ill ignore that. Using your example, long term real stock returns are: Earnings (6.66%) + Growth (2%) = 8.66% Long term nominal simply adds inflation, in your example 3%. Nominal returns equal: Earnings...
by APB
Tue Nov 15, 2016 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding 5%+ ... Rebalance or Proportional
Replies: 12
Views: 2165

Re: Adding 5%+ ... Rebalance or Proportional

Rebalancing with new money (income, dividends, etc) saves you from having to take premature capital gains and any commissions.

+1 to the latter!
by APB
Tue Nov 15, 2016 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Stock vs Total Bond
Replies: 19
Views: 2501

Re: Total Stock vs Total Bond

100% stocks till Friday, then 100% Bonds next week, then 100% stocks going forward. Haven't you heard the market tanks during thanksgiving due to turkey shortages? Seriously though . . . nobody knows, and this is the wrong place to get that type of "advice". Study the characteristics of stocks and b...
by APB
Sun Oct 23, 2016 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who disagrees with Jack. . .
Replies: 73
Views: 8338

Re: Who disagrees with Jack. . .

Just international equity exposure. I believe in weighting globally over a US only portfolio.

Of all individuals in the financial sector, Jack has probably done more to benefit the world than anyone in history. I'm very thankful for his contributions.
by APB
Sun Oct 23, 2016 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smart beta? GSLC
Replies: 8
Views: 1365

Re: Smart beta? GSLC

It is very early in the fund's life, the theory seems ok to me so I have a small holding (less than 1%) just to try it out. Jury is still out for me. What's the difference between holding a fund and simply watching a fund? Seems like you could get any necessary information without shifting your AA,...
by APB
Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When have you given enough?
Replies: 65
Views: 7178

Re: When have you given enough?

I'm not looking for a dollar amount. A process to get to answer would be appreciated. You have employed children with fully paid for undergraduate degrees and masters degrees. You have exceeded most parents, and your parental responsibilities. As a guiding principle, I would now focus on, in order:...
by APB
Sun Oct 09, 2016 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cheap asset classes and on-sale stock
Replies: 33
Views: 3860

Re: Cheap asset classes and on-sale stock

I'll bite. :) The most common definition of the price of stocks, when describing whether they are cheap or expensive, is the cyclically adjusted price to earnings multiple. During stock market downturns, stocks tend to crash more in price than in cyclically adjusted earnings. As such, the price to b...
by APB
Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How closely do you check your credit card statements?
Replies: 58
Views: 4610

Re: How closely do you check your credit card statements?

Woah, I'm surprised nobody has mentioned my method! On all of my credit cards, I set alerts to receive a notification on every transaction. (Every transaction > $0.01, based on how they set alerts.) Every time I charge my card, I get a near immediate text message and reconcile that with my memory of...
by APB
Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 22736

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

The standard Boglehead views of, and objections to, gold as an asset class are based on a oversimplifications that essentially boil down to it not having any inherent rate of return and not really being a viable inflation hedge. The first condition is enough for me. In my mind, it's a pretty good r...
by APB
Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to become debt free?
Replies: 36
Views: 4237

Re: How to become debt free?

Dave Ramsey for: - Hatred of debt - Learning to live below her means Because once you have money, Ramsey makes money on his audience by convincing people to get financial advisors and do active management. "If you can" and bogleheads for: - Investment advice - Optimizing your life once good habits a...
by APB
Sat Sep 24, 2016 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 22736

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Edit: February was the tulip bulb peak, not March. Wikipedia has a great write up on it, if you want the abbreviated version. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania I do not think that your comparison of Tulips to Gold is entirely acurate. A few thousand years of human money and the fact that ...
by APB
Sat Sep 24, 2016 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 22736

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Edit: February was the tulip bulb peak, not March. Wikipedia has a great write up on it, if you want the abbreviated version.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
by APB
Sat Sep 24, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 22736

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Agreed that back testing to find portfolios doesn't convince me of future results. It's the investing form of P-hacking. The 3-fund portfolio has the best rationale of any portfolio I've ever seen. If the golden butterfly outperformed the 3-fund historically, I believe that to have occurred due to ...
by APB
Fri Sep 23, 2016 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 22736

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Agreed that back testing to find portfolios doesn't convince me of future results. It's the investing form of P-hacking. The 3-fund portfolio has the best rationale of any portfolio I've ever seen. If the golden butterfly outperformed the 3-fund historically, I believe that to have occurred due to r...
by APB
Thu Sep 22, 2016 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting to Invest
Replies: 15
Views: 1533

Re: Starting to Invest

Re: bonds. As long as you could stomach a 2008 style plunge on 90% of your net worth, and not feel highly stressed and/or sell, i don't believe there to be a problem with 90% stock. But . . . Do you know yourself well enough to be certain on that? Will you lose sleep? Your goal is to reach financial...
by APB
Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morgan Stanley explains why the S&P500 wins
Replies: 13
Views: 2810

Re: Morgan Stanley explains why the S&P500 wins

Haha, what poor research. Investors care about returns, not earnings growth in a vacuum. And the article doesn't even compare the returns between SP500 vs. rest of market. Companies with slower growth make up for it with lower multiples. You pay the price for companies with higher growth with higher...
by APB
Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting to Invest
Replies: 15
Views: 1533

Re: Starting to Invest

. . . they both suggest diversifying even more within the US and foreign equities . . . some overlaps between the indexes within each category but I think some cover different segments. The Total US and Total International funds would already have those segments included within them. That's why the...
by APB
Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting to Invest
Replies: 15
Views: 1533

Re: Starting to Invest

I will only be answering your asset allocation question between "Option 1 - Simple" and "Option 2 - Diversified". Here are my bite sized thoughts on your options. 1) One is hard pressed to find a compelling reason to own more than the 3 funds listed in Option 1. 2) More funds does not equal more div...
by APB
Fri Sep 09, 2016 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bogleheads Budget?
Replies: 113
Views: 16452

Re: Do Bogleheads Budget?

I am in a cohabitation relationship. Neither my SO or I budget, but we both save 30% - 50% of take home pay. If we weren't able to meet savings goals without it, I'd budget. Should all go well, upon marriage, I'll want to agree to a general budget, with healthy discretionary percentages. Budgeting ...
by APB
Fri Sep 09, 2016 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bogleheads Budget?
Replies: 113
Views: 16452

Re: Do Bogleheads Budget?

I am in a cohabitation relationship. Neither my SO or I budget, but we both save 30% - 50% of take home pay. If we weren't able to meet savings goals without it, I'd budget. Should all go well, upon marriage, I'll want to agree to a general budget, with healthy discretionary percentages. Budgeting i...
by APB
Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) – constant rate or front-load?
Replies: 3
Views: 671

Re: 401(k) – constant rate or front-load?

I front load such that I normally max halfway through the year. It's slightly more optimal, barring specific employer policies. But, I've never checked whether it's worked out better, and I don't really care. It'll all even out over a lifetime of investing. Don't sweat the small stuff, you know? Ano...
by APB
Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice
Replies: 205
Views: 28830

Re: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice

Congrats! :sharebeer I would go with the 3 fund portfolio plus a good tax attorney - see Warren Buffett's bet with the hedge fund industry. +1 Your initial thought on 10% - 20% bonds is what I would do. If you are only spending 0.4% of your assets every year, you can easily afford a 50% downswing in...
by APB
Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early 20s seeking Aggressive Portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 2312

Re: Early 20s seeking Aggressive Portfolio

Your original 3-fund portfolio looks great to me. IMO, tinkering beyond what you have is very unlikely to have any benefit at all. Others are right that you should verify that you can handle the value of your equities halving. You should also mentally prepare yourself for that day right now, so you ...