Search found 409 matches

by dodonnell
Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity portfolio advisory services
Replies: 39
Views: 7818

Re: Fidelity portfolio advisory services

I am retired so no longer contributing new money. Not sure what Fidelity use to be like, but now their service is under 1% management fee and all funds have very low expense ratios. ...snip... Fidelity's lasted regulatory filing representing their reduced fees (139 pages): https://www.fidelity.com/...
by dodonnell
Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short-term Treasury ETF vs just buying Treasuries
Replies: 41
Views: 2975

Re: Short-term Treasury ETF vs just buying Treasuries

+1 triceratops It looks like you use Fidelity. They provide access to Treasury auctions without a charge. Many of your questions are answered here: https://scs.fidelity.com/webxpress/help/topics/learn_participating_new_issue_offerings.shtml#whatarethefees https://scs.fidelity.com/webxpress/help/topi...
by dodonnell
Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short-term Treasury ETF vs just buying Treasuries
Replies: 41
Views: 2975

Re: Short-term Treasury ETF vs just buying Treasuries

~1.914% drops down to ~1.796% when your size is small (about $1K).

Image

*source Fidelity.com
by dodonnell
Thu May 31, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Treasury Bills: Treasury Direct or Vanguard / Fidelity
Replies: 57
Views: 8642

Re: Buying Treasury Bills: Treasury Direct or Vanguard / Fidelity

Question: I have 26-week T-bills maturing 10/11/2018. There happens to be an auction for 26-week T-bills on 10/11/2018. As previously discussed Schwab does not allow rollover of Treasuries. However, since they know it is maturing at face value, will they allow me to place an auction order, since se...
by dodonnell
Fri May 25, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Magic Jack Go vs Obihai obi200- which one as landline replacement?
Replies: 30
Views: 3190

Re: Magic Jack Go vs Obihai obi200- which one as landline replacement?

...snip... We have set it so that any phone number that starts with (123)-456 automatically goes to voicemail unless it is in our contact list. We now only get a few spam calls per week that get through the filters. ...snip... An auto-attendant, that requires the caller to press a key to avoid goin...
by dodonnell
Fri May 25, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Magic Jack Go vs Obihai obi200- which one as landline replacement?
Replies: 30
Views: 3190

Re: Magic Jack Go vs Obihai obi200- which one as landline replacement?

Obi100 with www.voip.ms NOTE: GoogleVoice will discontinue working with Obi100/101 shortly, you need to upgrade to an Obi200 series www.voip.ms - $0.85 / month per DID - screens out auto-dialers/telemarketers with Autoattendant that requires the caller to press any key on the keypad to get through -...
by dodonnell
Thu May 24, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Treasury Bills: Treasury Direct or Vanguard / Fidelity
Replies: 57
Views: 8642

Re: Buying Treasury Bills: Treasury Direct or Vanguard / Fidelity

This link of auction schedule was previously posted by another gracious Boglehead: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/quarterly-refunding/Documents/auctions.pdf Question: Can Treasury Direct account holders buy in quantities greater than $ 1M? I've scoured the TreasuryDirect ...
by dodonnell
Sun May 06, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Limit order woes
Replies: 19
Views: 2324

Re: Limit order woes

Vanguard likely routed your order to one of their High-Frequency Trading "partners" instead of directly to an exchange. How Vanguard places your orders for trades | Vanguard Virtu and Citadel Securities go head to head in HFT https://i.imgur.com/epAbJty.png NFLX on Friday, a LIMIT SELL NFLX @ 320.00...
by dodonnell
Sun May 06, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Graham's Formula -- Still Applicable, Right?
Replies: 19
Views: 1596

Re: Graham's Formula -- Still Applicable, Right?

20 minus inflation multiplied by trailing twelve months earnings. 20-2=18. 18x110.98=1,997.64 The S&P 500 is approximately 25% overvalued. What do you think? I wonder how much higher today's earnings would be, if GAAP/IFRS accounting standards used to report earnings were frozen back to the time of...
by dodonnell
Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Treasury Bills: Treasury Direct or Vanguard / Fidelity
Replies: 57
Views: 8642

Re: Buying Treasury Bills: Treasury Direct or Vanguard / Fidelity

When buying Individual Treasury Bills in the secondary market, your " Markup " / " Markdown " is usually dependent on "size". There are minimum quantities associated with each bid/ask. Depending on the market, it can take upwards of 50, 75, or 100k Bills to avoid a slippage of 10 to 15 bips. Below i...
by dodonnell
Sat Apr 28, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 35
Views: 5218

Re: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It

The outcome for corporate bonds in 2008/9 was satisfactory. We were lucky. However, that doesn't justify a correct decision. In the Great Depression, stocks lost over 80% of their value and Corporate Bond defaults exploded. Treasuries behaved as expected. And today there's much more BBB not-quite-j...
by dodonnell
Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 35
Views: 5218

Re: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It

@to all: sorry to fork this thread off the Corporate liquidity premium article and toward Treasuries v Corporates. To me, it feels like debating the attributes of a seat belt that feels much more comfortable when your driving, however, fails when you crash @nisiprius: updated chart below, sorry for ...
by dodonnell
Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 35
Views: 5218

Re: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It

@nispirus

VFITX versus VFICX
The last recession ... the last time anyone really needed their fixed income :wink:

Image
by dodonnell
Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 35
Views: 5218

Re: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It

But let's look a real life example of the difference in returns between Treasuries and Corporates. The Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury Admiral (VFIUX) has a 10 year growth of $10,000 of $13,687. The Vanguard Intermediate Term Investment Grade Admiral (VFIDX) consists of 68% corporates and has a...
by dodonnell
Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you compare VNQ vs SP500?
Replies: 18
Views: 1199

Re: How do you compare VNQ vs SP500?

VFINX (SP500) - Total Return - Blue - Price Return - Blue dotted VNQ - Total Return - Red - Price Return - Red dotted Why did they diverge? - Hypothesis: Federal Reserve started raising interest rates int 2016. REITs are very sensitive to interest rates. - Federal Funds Rate - Black, Below http://i6...
by dodonnell
Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE SOLD OUT
Replies: 109
Views: 24327

Re: 2018 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT

Mel, Please put me on the waiting list.

Thank you, Dan O'Donnell

"Missed it by that much"

x
by dodonnell
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Secure File Transfer
Replies: 6
Views: 736

Re: Secure File Transfer

I've resorted to sending to non-IT people: Zip File containing all documents/folders Encrypted using "ZipCrypto" option of 7zip password sent via text to cell phone I've found that Windows 10, etc. can, using File Explorer, can decrypt ZipCrypto, but not AES256, just by clicking zip file ... interes...
by dodonnell
Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax customer information leak
Replies: 711
Views: 61846

Re: Equifax customer information leak

...slightly weird, in that the way they tell you whether your info was involved or not is by telling you when you'd be allowed to enroll (for reasons I'm not clear on it's staggered by date). Got a future date with the instruction to return ON or After that date to the same web address. A commenter...
by dodonnell
Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is there any reason NOT to do TLH ?
Replies: 50
Views: 3879

Re: is there any reason NOT to do TLH ?

If you live in New Jersey ... your Capital Loss is NOT carried over. So, i believe in NJ, you would lose the tax savings on excess Capital Losses ~9% in top bracket, then in addition, you will pay additional tax on delta between the original and new lower cost basis due to the TLH when you finally ...
by dodonnell
Sat Jun 24, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: USD money market fund/T-bills
Replies: 5
Views: 837

Re: USD money market fund/T-bills

Hi there, ..snip.. park my liquid USD part of my portfolio in. I use Interactive Brokers ..snip.. IB pays roughly FedFunds -0.5% on cash balances over 10k USD (1.16% - 0.5% - 0.66%). They sweep customer cash into a FDIC bank conduit series as the better US brokers also do. So a 2M cash balance woul...
by dodonnell
Tue Jun 13, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Yahoo Finance no longer works - Alternatives to download securities quotes]
Replies: 287
Views: 47109

Re: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working

I was recently very surprised to learn that Yahoo made a change that rendered all of my excel macro based financial models garbage. They require a cookie and a crumb but it is now possible to get it back up and running with a little programming know how. Here is the link that has the sample code. I...
by dodonnell
Wed May 31, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 2966

Re: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?

Morningstar appears to be incorrect on Total Returns. (<rightClick> -> View Image for larger charts)

Image

Maybe they are just charting the Price return (without the dividends reinvested ... see the dotted versions below

Image
by dodonnell
Wed May 31, 2017 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 2966

Re: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?

Just make sure you don't confuse "Fair Value" with "Expected Returns" How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns? by Bill Bernstein » Mon May 06, 2013, bogleheads.org since the middle of 2013, the average annual real return for reits was about 7% Very aware of the Performance of REITS sinc...
by dodonnell
Tue May 30, 2017 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 2966

Re: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?

Just make sure you don't confuse "Fair Value" with "Expected Returns"

How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?
by Bill Bernstein » Mon May 06, 2013, bogleheads.org
by dodonnell
Tue May 30, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 64
Views: 11654

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

Trust, but (always) verify

NASDAQ TIPS Dividends

You can download 10 years worth of daily price data using the link at the bottom of this page (unadjusted :( )
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tip/historical
by dodonnell
Mon May 29, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 64
Views: 11654

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

i was just trying to formulate an excel calc sheet to convert available yahoo data (prices & div) to the way the data used to be. I discovered another Yahoo error (at least i think it's an error). https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TIP/history?period1=831963600&period2=1496034000&interval=div%7Csplit&...
by dodonnell
Wed May 17, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 64
Views: 11654

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

..snip.. Worse, I also have scripts that use the ichart interface to grab historical data. For example, this URL should retrieve a CSV file of the entire price history of vtsax: https://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/table.csv?s=vtsax Instead it gives me an error page: "Our engineers are working quickly ...
by dodonnell
Sun May 14, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity portfolio advisory services
Replies: 39
Views: 7818

Re: Fidelity portfolio advisory services

Fidelity pays employees more to sell PAS. https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/representative-compensation.pdf 2008 Thread on Fidelity PAS https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=186394 I must admit, I am horrified by this portfolio management from Fidelity. - ...
by dodonnell
Sat May 13, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens to BND (Total Bond Index) during a downturn
Replies: 43
Views: 4669

Re: What happens to BND (Total Bond Index) during a downturn

VBMFX during 2008-2009
Blue is Total Return
(interest/dividend reinvested back into the fund)
Green is Price Return Only
... below, Green is actual Price

Image

<right-click>image -> "View Image" ... for a larger chart
by dodonnell
Sat Apr 29, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Go Inside Jack's Office
Replies: 21
Views: 3394

Re: Go Inside Jack's Office

Very nice ... I hope this was filmed recently ... Jack looks great
by dodonnell
Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk
Replies: 39
Views: 4276

Re: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk

grabiner, good point Maybe i should have labeled my chart " Quality Fixed Income Ingredients " instead of choices. I assumed blending your fixed income portfolio to obtain the desired behavior, duration, distribution, etc... My intent was to show the extremes on the quality fixed income behavior env...
by dodonnell
Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk
Replies: 39
Views: 4276

Re: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk

...snip... https://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=VFINX®ion=usa&culture=en-US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A9%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22navSettingId%22%3A%22nav%22%2C%22benchmar...
by dodonnell
Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 51
Views: 6061

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

@FiveK - Interesting challenge. It is not straightforward. Just to be clear: Do want to add a variable PMT that is a constant annual cash flow into/out of the return series ? If we restrict it to positive, the formula may be somewhat acheivable. If we allow negative, or withdrawals, we would have to...
by dodonnell
Sun Jan 08, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Disadvantage of Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 65
Views: 4930

Re: Disadvantage of Tax loss harvesting

To come back to the Vanguard white paper by Sarah Hammer, I wonder if she herself has any practical experience in her own accounts with tax-loss harvesting. I think that talking theory is nice, but if she had done it with any Vanguard mutual funds, then she would have seen for herself that she didn...
by dodonnell
Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Disadvantage of Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 65
Views: 4930

Re: Disadvantage of Tax loss harvesting

STATE INCOME TAX MUST ALSO BE CONSIDERED . Some States, like New Jersey and Pennsylvania, DO NOT allow capital loss carry over. Over harvesting losses more than needed in on year, could potentially cost a taxpayer as much as a ~9% tax in a State like New Jersey, on future gains in the following yea...
by dodonnell
Sun Dec 18, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: VoIP 'Oma' vs 'Vonage' phone
Replies: 39
Views: 3986

Voip.ms w Obi200

+1 using Obi200 w Voip.ms for a few years: most configurable service, best call quality (ping to newyork.voip.ms is <10ms), and monthly home bill is ~ $2/month When I changed telephone systems a few years ago, features I required like e911 and call forwarding from the handset were not available with...
by dodonnell
Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni bond ladder vs fund for large $$$$
Replies: 42
Views: 4569

Re: Muni bond ladder vs fund for large $$$$

..snip.. I can have a ladder built and actively managed by a major brokerage/bank for 20 bps/year or use a bond fund/ETF with an expense of 12-15bps/yr ..snip.. Any "brokerage/bank" that is licensed by FINRA and acting as a "Registered Representative" will likely charge an undisclosed "markup/markd...
by dodonnell
Sat Aug 01, 2015 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account
Replies: 15
Views: 3113

Re: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account

What costs $10 to trade on Schwab, costs $1 on others. My point was that you don't need to pay $10 with Schwab. That's the most expensive approach to trading through them. If you think "commission free" has truly no cost to customers, then why this: Schwab routes ~95% of all their clients order flo...
by dodonnell
Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account
Replies: 15
Views: 3113

Re: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account

Schwab ranked second from dead last in "Costs". As someone who uses Scottrade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab for different brokerage accounts, it's my opinion that the Barron's rankings don't pertain to your typical long-term investor. The rankings are mostly based on factors are more important to a pe...
by dodonnell
Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account
Replies: 15
Views: 3113

Re: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account

Schwab ranked second from dead last in "Costs". http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ON-BJ044_Broker_G_20150306204020.jpg http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB51367578116875004693704580502703510707706 Schwab, Ameritrade, Etrade, and Fidelity sell their client's order flow to high frequency trad...
by dodonnell
Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I move all my Long Term NY Munis into Intermediate Term?
Replies: 12
Views: 1517

Re: Should I move all my Long Term NY Munis into Intermediate Term?

+1 The markets tend to be somewhat efficient here most of the time: NY fund returns will be lower than National Fund Returns due to the demand from NY investors. Said another way: Vanguard's National Muni Long SEC yield is 2.61% Vanguard's NY Muni Long SEC yield is 2.38% ... you would have to pay mo...
by dodonnell
Mon Jul 27, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Futility of Predicting Future Returns
Replies: 87
Views: 8294

Re: The Futility of Predicting Future Returns

During World War II, [Nobel laureate, Ken] Arrow was assigned to a team of statisticians to produce long-range weather forecasts. After a time, Arrow and his team determined that their forecasts were not much better than pulling predictions out of a hat. They wrote their superiors, asking to be rel...
by dodonnell
Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Online chart of performance that includes reinvested divs and cap gains?
Replies: 2
Views: 386

Re: Online chart of performance that includes reinvested divs and cap gains?

http://www.stockcharts.com

Plots adjusted price or "Total Return" by default.

You can also plot just a price chart by prepending an underscore in front of the symbol

Example: BSV
http://schrts.co/LQ3fY4

Example: _BSV
http://schrts.co/8ee7XU
by dodonnell
Fri Jul 24, 2015 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 3299

Re: Help buying LEAPs

CBOE index options LEAPS are trading out to Dec 14 2017. ... currently the highest strike available that has traded is: SPX Dec14'17 3000 Call Bid 3.00 Ask 3.30 Last 3.20 ... so it looks like you can go out 2.5 years and you are looking at ~10% spread. At the money is trading ~5% spread Dec'17. So i...
by dodonnell
Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 4160

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

ANSWER: 25% of Assets Mathematically, while the investor's assets could approach zero, he can technically never go broke. That would be true of any betting scheme using a % of assets less than 100%. The point of Kelly is that it maximizes the expected growth rate . Very good point ( emphasis added)
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gambling with Commodities
Replies: 15
Views: 2301

Re: Gambling with Commodities

You don't need to gamble with real money to learn about trading commodities.
You can open a Paper Trading account at IB, TradeStation, and use resources available to University students.

Student Trading Lab
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 4160

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

EDIT: Disregard this post, cottonseed1 already explained how to get the answer in his post above. Yes. A skilled speculator, who has a positive expected return on every trade, will likely go broke over time, if he is not a skilled risk manager. He needs to be able to answer a question like this: Wh...
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 3299

Re: Help buying LEAPs

grok, Are you sure you are trading the correct product ? Bodie actually mentions at-the-money 3 year LEAPs or long term equity index options (on for example the S&P 500) as one alternative to consider. http://www.cboe.com/spxms/options/leaps/leapsspecifications.aspx LEAPS on the SPX or S&P500 Index ...
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 4160

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

What percent of assets , should a rational investor "bet" on a trade with a 50% chance of success, if they either lose their wager (-100% return) or they triple it (+200% return). Clearly the trade has an extraordinarily high expected return of +50%, but what is the optimum size of the wager to max...
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 4160

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

EDIT: Disregard this post, cottonseed1 already explained how to get the answer in his post above. Yes. A skilled speculator, who has a positive expected return on every trade, will likely go broke over time, if he is not a skilled risk manager. He needs to be able to answer a question like this: Wha...