Search found 170 matches

by Fundhunter
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing
Replies: 71
Views: 4647

Re: Market Timing

All I need to know is that if market timing worked, then the richest people in the world would be market timers, not business tycoons. You mean like Warren Buffet? Seriously, you're arguing that if an investor was able to achieve returns over the long-term that were at all higher than buy-and-hold ...
by Fundhunter
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Market Timing (RMT)
Replies: 6
Views: 907

Re: Reverse Market Timing (RMT)

If you want to gamble (and that is exactly what that is), go to Vegas- at least you can see a good show!
by Fundhunter
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing
Replies: 71
Views: 4647

Re: Market Timing

There's a reason this forum doesn't respect market timing. It doesn't work. Well, let me rephrase that. Maybe it does work. Maybe some people can pull it off. I'm willing to allow for the possibility that some investors can "beat" the market, over and above taxes and fees, even without insider trad...
by Fundhunter
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing
Replies: 71
Views: 4647

Re: Market Timing

All I need to know is that if market timing worked, then the richest people in the world would be market timers, not business tycoons.
by Fundhunter
Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%
Replies: 47
Views: 5337

Re: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%

Wishing you had at least 20% bonds to rebalance tomorrow? BND was up .44% today :mrgreen: No, cuz I suck at calling bottoms. Gonna let my stocks ride and it'll be all good in 30 years. :sharebeer EVERYBODY sucks at calling the bottoms, which is why you shouldn't try. Stay the course and unless you ...
by Fundhunter
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%
Replies: 47
Views: 5337

Re: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%

Kenkat wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:35 pm
Total Bond Market Index up 0.47% today. My largest holding.

I still lost the equivalent of a Camry / Accord today :|
Did you sell? If you didn't, then you lost nothing.
by Fundhunter
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard site is crashed now?
Replies: 188
Views: 17832

Re: Vanguard site is crashed now?

I wasn't planning on doing any trading today, but I find it utterly incomprehensible that some folks would make light of an entire platform going down and people being unable to place orders. That's not acceptable on any day. But sure, lolz panic trading Yes, it doesn't raise one's confidence in Va...
by Fundhunter
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard site is crashed now?
Replies: 188
Views: 17832

Re: Vanguard site is crashed now?

Ladies and gentlemen who couldn't reach Vanguard: Were we market timing? Shame! :mrgreen: Exactly! Why would you need to do something today in the down market unless you are a MARKET TIMER? That is NOT "staying the course". I think some people on this site really do not buy into the philosophy.
by Fundhunter
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 82
Views: 10745

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

Keep in mind total Int is made up of 16% EM. Depending on your AA, you may already have enough EM exposure for your liking. The Vanguard website's fund description says VTIAX has 19.7% Emerging Markets. Most of my international is in that fund, and I do not have a problem with that, as it is part o...
by Fundhunter
Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing - Personal Philosophies
Replies: 43
Views: 4822

Re: Rebalancing - Personal Philosophies

I rebalanced all through the 1990’s and during the first decade of the 2000’s. But now my stock allocation is about five percentage points above my target, and I’ve decided not to rebalance. The reason: all of my stocks are in taxable accounts, and rebalancing by selling shares would trigger signif...
by Fundhunter
Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 82
Views: 10745

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

The problem is that international (ex-US) has done poorly over very long periods of time, so the track record is frightening. I would have to look it up, but there was a thread here a couple of months ago showing performance over very long time frames (starting at 100 years ago or so), and it didn'...
by Fundhunter
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing - Personal Philosophies
Replies: 43
Views: 4822

Re: Rebalancing - Personal Philosophies

45% fixed income (mostly short term, some intermediate, only long is small TIPS position- I avoid interest rate risk). 55% equity mutual funds (25% of which is international). I am newly retired and will begin withdrawals in November (from ONLY fixed income portion of portfolio, in a manner to keep ...
by Fundhunter
Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy when there's blood in the streets!
Replies: 39
Views: 7400

Re: Buy when there's blood in the streets!

Not me. but if it is rebalance time when stocks are low, then I am probably selling fixed income and buying stocks on sale! Figuring out when there is sufficient blood in the streets to buy is a little too much like market timing for me. This is true on a full population basis, but it's incredibly ...
by Fundhunter
Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy when there's blood in the streets!
Replies: 39
Views: 7400

Re: Buy when there's blood in the streets!

Not me. but if it is rebalance time when stocks are low, then I am probably selling fixed income and buying stocks on sale! Figuring out when there is sufficient blood in the streets to buy is a little too much like market timing for me. I absolutely strongly disagree with the post that says in reba...
by Fundhunter
Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 82
Views: 10745

Re: Valuation investing vs Stay-the-course investing

Bogleheads: Changing investments based on changing valuations is a form of market-timing which many studies have shown does not work. Stay the course. No matter what happens, stick to your program. I've said "Stay the course" a thousand times, and I meant it ever time. It is the most important sing...
by Fundhunter
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 9117

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

Currently, little if any inflation is priced into TIPS and it may be a good time to pick up some protection for unexpected inflation with a modest portion of the bond portfolio. Isn't "buying" inflation protection for only a modest portion of your bond portfolio like buying fire insurance only for ...
by Fundhunter
Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 9117

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

A stupid move for me anyway is investing in anything where there's no consensus. So what do you invest in? There isn't even a consensus on this forum that stocks and bonds are optimum investments. Some argue for rental properties and bitcoin. Others may argue for gold, commodities, antiques, etc. :...
by Fundhunter
Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 9117

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

A stupid move for me anyway is investing in anything where there's no consensus. So what do you invest in? There isn't even a consensus on this forum that stocks and bonds are optimum investments. Some argue for rental properties and bitcoin. Others may argue for gold, commodities, antiques, etc. :...
by Fundhunter
Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 9117

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

From looking over this thread, it is obvious that there is no consensus on inclusion of TIPS (or how much) in a portfolio, including by our "experts". Kind of reminds me of the threads on international equity investing, where nobody seems to agree either. If Vanguard doesn't like TIPS now, then why ...
by Fundhunter
Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System
Replies: 77
Views: 12351

Re: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System

My understanding from reading Jim Otar's book and Jane B. Quinn's most recent How to Make Your Money Last, is the buckets are there to minimize the need to sell stocks at a loss when markets are down. The cash bucket pays expenses not covered by SS, pension and other non-investment income. During l...
by Fundhunter
Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System
Replies: 77
Views: 12351

Re: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System

Not everybody on this board subscribes to the 3-fund portfolio. I do not, because of the recommended fixed income fund which is Total Bond Market, which contains a slug of long bonds. I agree with Larry Swedroe and his book that the relatively small increase in yield is not worth the very high inte...
by Fundhunter
Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System
Replies: 77
Views: 12351

Re: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System

Not everybody on this board subscribes to the 3-fund portfolio. I do not, because of the recommended fixed income fund which is Total Bond Market, which contains a slug of long bonds. I agree with Larry Swedroe and his book that the relatively small increase in yield is not worth the very high inte...
by Fundhunter
Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System
Replies: 77
Views: 12351

Re: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System

It seems like a waste of time to even consider. Taylor's 3 fund portfolio is more than enough and if you want to add cash to it, then that's fine. Not everybody on this board subscribes to the 3-fund portfolio. I do not, because of the recommended fixed income fund which is Total Bond Market, which...
by Fundhunter
Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?
Replies: 57
Views: 8873

Re: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?

A few years back, this book was recommended to me on this site: "Unveiling the Retirement Myth" by James C. Otar. I really recommend this book. A lot in there about the withdrawal stage in retirement, including what to do if you are borderline on having enough. Great discussion on annuities and when...
by Fundhunter
Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: an in depth look at gold
Replies: 91
Views: 8804

Re: an in depth look at gold

I have never been convinced that gold should be part of my portfolio. And after reading Larry's article, I remain unconvinced. Vanguard TIPS mutual fund is my inflation hedge.
by Fundhunter
Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has the cheapest funds? It’s more complicated than you think
Replies: 27
Views: 4203

Re: Who has the cheapest funds? It’s more complicated than you think

I have been seeing the new Charles Schwab mutual fund ad on television for the last few days. It is a follow up to the ads that try to shame the full service brokers and their high trading fees. This new one pushes the Schwab Index 500 mutual fund (SWPPX), saying it is cheaper than Fidelity and Vang...
by Fundhunter
Mon Mar 06, 2017 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Investor – Novice Jitters
Replies: 32
Views: 3320

Re: New Investor – Novice Jitters

I just read through your replies. Many thanks to each of you who took the time to share your thoughts, experiences, book suggestions, blogs, and stories. This feels like a very welcoming and supportive community. I get the idea from your replies that it might be a good idea for me to continue to se...
by Fundhunter
Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: international bonds a good idea?
Replies: 20
Views: 4159

Re: international bonds a good idea?

Larry Swedroe, who wrote a book about fixed income investing ("The Only Guide To A Winning Bond Strategy You'll Ever Need"), says to stick to short and intermediate high quality bonds only. Amazing book, BTW. I think it's about time I read it again. During the last recent thread I was involved in r...
by Fundhunter
Sun Mar 05, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: international bonds a good idea?
Replies: 20
Views: 4159

Re: international bonds a good idea?

Larry Swedroe, who wrote a book about fixed income investing ("The Only Guide To A Winning Bond Strategy You'll Ever Need"), says to stick to short and intermediate high quality bonds only. He doesn't like the VG Total Bond Market Index fund, which includes long bonds. He thinks that you should stic...
by Fundhunter
Sun Mar 05, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Investor – Novice Jitters
Replies: 32
Views: 3320

Re: New Investor – Novice Jitters

Why not invest only in Vanguard Target Retirement 2055 or 2060 and let VG do the thinking for you? Both are about 90% stock and 10% bonds and this ratio slowly adjusts with more fixed income as you get closer to the target date. Just keep on putting $$ in every month, and when the market goes down (...
by Fundhunter
Mon Feb 27, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank Loan Funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1824

Re: Bank Loan Funds

My wife holds a small position in Fidelity's bank loan fund, FFRHX. Expense ratio is .71%, lower than most. It is more conservative than most, per the Morningstar report. We would also like to know the Boglehead consensus opinion this type of fund as part of a fixed income allocation. I know that th...
by Fundhunter
Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond is safe. Is it prudent?
Replies: 39
Views: 4884

Re: Total Bond is safe. Is it prudent?

Curious if anyone uses Intermediate Term Bond (VBILX admiral, BIV etf, ER .09) instead? Looks like it uses a 50/50 split on government/corporate. Yes I have VBILX. I do not like Total Bond Market (I agree with Larry Swedroe on this) because it contains a chunk of long bonds, which I avoid like canc...
by Fundhunter
Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A note of caution from Robert Shiller
Replies: 66
Views: 11841

Re: A note of caution from Robert Shiller

irish17 wrote:so would this be a bad time to start investment?
thanks for your considerations.
irish

No such thing!
by Fundhunter
Tue Jan 31, 2017 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the safest Bonds after US Treasury Bonds
Replies: 27
Views: 3937

Re: What are the safest Bonds after US Treasury Bonds

Bonds issued by Federal agencies (like Federal Home Loan Bank, Tennessee Valley Authority, etc.) are generally considered almost credit risk free and have a slightly better yield to compensate for the slightly higher risk. I usually opt for these agency ones (in mutual funds) where I have a choice, ...
by Fundhunter
Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: final review of 2016 sure things
Replies: 9
Views: 1917

Re: final review of 2016 sure things

Yes, helpful in reinforcing that these predictions are all pure bunk, although there must be a reason why so many people who fancy themselves as "experts" still give them. :(
by Fundhunter
Thu Jan 26, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe's guidelines to Bonds
Replies: 137
Views: 14917

Re: Swedroe's guidelines to Bonds

Since this thread started I have reread most of Larry's book. At page 145, it is recommended that currency-hedged foreign bonds be held as part of fixed income, but that they be short to intermediate term and highly rated, like his recommendation for US Bonds. I do not see either a Vanguard or a Fi...
by Fundhunter
Thu Jan 26, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe's guidelines to Bonds
Replies: 137
Views: 14917

Re: Swedroe's guidelines to Bonds

Since this thread started I have reread most of Larry's book. At page 145, it is recommended that currency-hedged foreign bonds be held as part of fixed income, but that they be short to intermediate term and highly rated, like his recommendation for US bonds. I do not see either a Vanguard or a Fid...
by Fundhunter
Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe's guidelines to Bonds
Replies: 137
Views: 14917

Re: Swedroe's guidelines to Bonds

I follow all of Larry's recommendations as well as I can. Really? What about this one: Just to add that should use CDs instead of Treasuries when you have access to them, unless spread in yields very thin :twisted: :beer (I keep Larry's bond book on the end table next to my computer. Thanks neighbo...
by Fundhunter
Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe's guidelines to Bonds
Replies: 137
Views: 14917

Re: Swedroe's guidelines to Bonds

I was just reading Larry Swedroe's bonds book. He summarizes some general guidelines to follow. I'm wondering how many Bogleheads follow some of these. Here are a few: -Avoid any bonds longer than 10-years -Avoid bonds with ratings under AA -Favor Treasuries and TIPS -Municpals are OK if using the ...
by Fundhunter
Wed Jan 18, 2017 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 3168

Re: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio

I don't think duration of assets is a helpful guideline for a person withdrawing from a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds over the long duration of a retirement. If holding a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds, one should have a sufficient allocation to short duration fixed income investme...
by Fundhunter
Tue Jan 17, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 3168

Re: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio

A longer duration is usually good to match the duration of liabilities, but if using a mutual fund, you can't just withdraw the part of the portfolio aligned with short-term liabilities. If inflation accelerates, the volatility in intermediate bonds (TIPs or nominal) and equities would introduce a ...
by Fundhunter
Tue Jan 17, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 3168

Re: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio

OK, so I looked on the T. Rowe Price website. They also offer Target Retirement funds of various dates like Vanguard. Theirs are also "funds of funds" although they add a few more ingredients in very small quantities to the mix (like convertible bonds). They also do not include TIPS on dates far in ...
by Fundhunter
Tue Jan 17, 2017 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 3168

Re: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio

Yes, excellent article, although it does not give specific advice about allocation between short and longer TIPS for a retirement portfolio close to withdrawal. But Vanguard seems to have made its position clear by replacing the intermediate-term TIPS fund with the short-term TIPS fund in its Targe...
by Fundhunter
Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 3168

Re: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio

. Fundhunter, Perhaps this Vanguard paper comparing long and short TIPS might be of value to you: https://institutional.vanguard.com/iam/pdf/ICRLSTPS.pdf Yes, excellent article, although it does not give specific advice about allocation between short and longer TIPS for a retirement portfolio close...
by Fundhunter
Tue Jan 17, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 3168

Re: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio

I doubt that for a retiree withdrawing from a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds that trying to find some mix for part of that portfolio between short and intermediate TIPS is going to make any difference at all. I am convinced that for holding for the long run, meaning retirement, intermediate...
by Fundhunter
Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 3168

Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio

I have had a good chunk of TIPS in the fixed income portion of my retirement accounts for a number of years, but my position is in VAIPX (listed by Vanguard as an intermediate term bond fund), but not the short term TIPS fund VTAPX. The issue is whether a short TIPS fund should be included with the ...
by Fundhunter
Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water
Replies: 29
Views: 6278

Re: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water

Never owned any of those funds and I shy away from long bonds completely anyhow.
But you should stop reading this article as soon as you see this: "A secular bear market for bonds is upon us..."
Where does he get his crystal ball???
by Fundhunter
Fri Jan 13, 2017 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities in Roth part of portfolio?
Replies: 19
Views: 2626

Re: 100% equities in Roth part of portfolio?

As I was looking at my portfolio as a whole, I was reminded to expect equities to generate more income than bonds over the long haul. Then I noticed much of the Roth part of the portfolio was in bonds. The regular IRA part, from which I have to draw out RMDs, also has a combination of bonds and sto...
by Fundhunter
Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Commodities Still a Good Portfolio Diversifier?
Replies: 51
Views: 4171

Re: Are Commodities Still a Good Portfolio Diversifier?

OK, I don't own any commodities and never have. I don't claim to have analyzed all the technical stuff posted in this thread, nor to be any expert on commodities, but skimming what is posted here, I haven't seen anything that would convince me that this type of investment needs to be part of anythin...
by Fundhunter
Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on a Bogle quote
Replies: 29
Views: 3308

Re: Thoughts on a Bogle quote

This doesn't make me feel good about my target date fund having 35% Int'l stock. Well they don't know what a "correct" % of international equities should be either. I think pick a number and rebalance to that number when your rebalance date comes up. Going to less equities generally (like target da...