Search found 97 matches

by KnowNth
Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 5054
Views: 1297780

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Since we are talking about old movies, I want to mention "Tokyo Story" and "Ikiru". I think you need to be old to appreciate these two movies. I enjoy all Fellini's movies, Nights of Cabiria is my favorite. Please don’t take my comments as if I have an authority to define aesthetics or world cinema....
by KnowNth
Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is YOUR formula in determining whether you're FI? And what did you do after you reach FI?
Replies: 25
Views: 2817

What is YOUR formula in determining whether you're FI? And what did you do after you reach FI?

For those who feel you have achieved financial independent, what formula did YOU use? I am not asking for consensus, just individual formulas. I am not asking retirement number either, just when you feel you have won the game. Was it Expense * 25/30/33/50 ? Did you take Social Security into consider...
by KnowNth
Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 342
Views: 25675

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Really? Even 3% is debatable now? What's next, 2.5% is too aggressive?
by KnowNth
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you consider pensions as part of your overall asset allocation?
Replies: 67
Views: 5362

Re: Do you consider pensions as part of your overall asset allocation?

I think the real question is "How should pension/annuity affect asset allocation?" Say one has 1.2M in retirement investments and his pension funds give him to choice to a one time withdraw of 0.8M. His expense is 80K per year. (asset 25 times expense) If he withdraws the 0.8M from pension fund, mos...
by KnowNth
Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Olympic National Park and Mount Rainier National Park First Week of November - Worth It?
Replies: 15
Views: 885

Re: Olympic National Park and Mount Rainier National Park First Week of November - Worth It?

The two NPs are very different.

Looks like the weather will be good for this weekend, I would go to Olympic NP.

Hoh Rain Forest
Hurricane Ridge
Any of the beaches Rialto, Second, Ruby, Hole in the Wall etc
Lake Crescent
...
by KnowNth
Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds returns are on par with Stocks?
Replies: 98
Views: 6259

Re: Bonds returns are on par with Stocks?

I guess my point is that the data we have are so limited, yet some of those data are probably useless, then some of the data are ignored to fit certain narrative. The more I read, the more I feel ALL the investment theories are just looking for patterns where there might not be one. Take the trinity...
by KnowNth
Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds returns are on par with Stocks?
Replies: 98
Views: 6259

Re: Bonds returns are on par with Stocks?

The more I read, the more I feel ALL the investment theories are just looking for patterns where there might not be one. Take the trinity research as an example. Based on historical data, Safe Withdrawal Rate would be less than 1% for Germany, France, Italy and Japan. But people either ignore it or ...
by KnowNth
Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to compare Bond fund vs CD?
Replies: 7
Views: 1295

Re: How to compare Bond fund vs CD?

Thanks all! Learned quite a lot.
by KnowNth
Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to compare Bond fund vs CD?
Replies: 7
Views: 1295

How to compare Bond fund vs CD?

GS bank offers 5 year CD with APY 2.6% Vanguard Intermediate bond ETF BIV yield 2.4%, with average duration of 6.1 years. Assuming one doesn't need this money within 5 years, how do you compare them? Would bond fund perform better when interest rates drop while CD perform better when interest rates ...
by KnowNth
Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: new 401k with stable value fund...should I use it? for how much?
Replies: 21
Views: 1505

Re: new 401k with stable value fund...should I use it? for how much?

Vineviz, thanks for the reply, but I am a little confused. 1. My understanding is the stable value funds protected the investors with the future decline in yield. So the fund companies will shoulder the risks instead of the investors, right? 2. Reinvestment Risk. Won't the bond fund face the same ri...
by KnowNth
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: new 401k with stable value fund...should I use it? for how much?
Replies: 21
Views: 1505

Re: new 401k with stable value fund...should I use it? for how much?

Shouldn't the cash and bond interest comparison be part of the equation before cash is dismissed? Vanguard intermediate bond yields 2.49% now If the stable value fund yields 2.5% or higher, would you still favor bond? You are in your early 50s retirement as soon as 5 years away, to as far as 12. Wha...
by KnowNth
Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 244
Views: 30641

Re: The Big Short's Michael Burry on why index funds are like subprime CDOs - why is he wrong?

That's not true. Take an extreme case. Say a company is about to be de-listed from the index. Active fund can sell this company beforehand through market research, thus avoid the bleeding. Index fund can't. Index investing punishes bad companies to the exact degree that the active community punishes...
by KnowNth
Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 244
Views: 30641

Re: The Big Short's Michael Burry on why index funds are like subprime CDOs - why is he wrong?

I don't think he is wrong. Since Index investing doesn't punish the bad companies, doesn't reward the good companies, it creates opportunities for good fund managers to explore. As index funds grow bigger, I would think the opportunities grows bigger. I imagine eventually he (or someone else) will m...
by KnowNth
Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What makes your dream house so special?
Replies: 41
Views: 3352

What makes your dream house so special?

Many bogleheads have mentioned that they live in their dream house, some even cut down on travel because the house is so perfect.

So what makes your house so special to you? Is it Size? Yard? Decoration? View? Neighborhood?
by KnowNth
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for negative interest rates
Replies: 31
Views: 2045

Re: Investing for negative interest rates

What will happen to TIAA and other Stable Value Funds with prolonged zero or negative interest rate?

Long period of extremely low rate happened in Japan and Euro Zone, so who knows, it may happen in US.
by KnowNth
Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How best to invest in this unique account to get maxim benefits
Replies: 5
Views: 412

Re: How best to invest in this unique account to get maxim benefits

Thanks. Yes, your understanding is correct. Right now, I am investing in EM, but I am having second thoughts. It seems to me EM UPs never last long before a DOWN turn starts. I will take a look at small cap value. If I understand your question, this translates to putting everything in the highest ex...
by KnowNth
Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How best to invest in this unique account to get maxim benefits
Replies: 5
Views: 412

How best to invest in this unique account to get maxim benefits

Say you have an unique account that guarantees 30% return in 10 years after inflation. For example, the account balance is 100K, inflation for the next 10 years will be 20%. Then you will be guaranteed 100K * (1+20%) * (1+30%) = 156K even if your balance is less than that. The guarantee only applies...
by KnowNth
Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you contribute the max to your IRA and then invest it all in equities for the first market day of the new year?
Replies: 160
Views: 9713

Re: Will you contribute the max to your IRA and then invest it all in equities for the first market day of the new year?

Even with the catch-up contribution, the strategy only gains 2% of 7K = $140? Seems too much hassle for such a small gain. Or maybe you are talking about backdoor roth. What is your definition of big drop? 10%? 20%? Thanks. In this case, maybe 2%. Maybe 1.5%. One can see that for broad market index ...
by KnowNth
Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you contribute the max to your IRA and then invest it all in equities for the first market day of the new year?
Replies: 160
Views: 9713

Re: Will you contribute the max to your IRA and then invest it all in equities for the first market day of the new year?

What is your definition of big drop? 10%? 20%? Thanks. Nope. Never do that. I usually invest it on the first big drop of the year that goes below the 12/31 value. There are very few years when the stock market doesn't go below the 12/31 value, so my investment that year almost always outperforms the...
by KnowNth
Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: My favorite Boglehead posters
Replies: 154
Views: 12791

Re: My favorite Boglehead posters

I frequently google Nisiprius site:bogleheads.org or bobcat2 site:bogleheads.org when I have time. :D
by KnowNth
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 5054
Views: 1297780

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Shoplifters just becomes my favorite movie of the year. Winner of Cannes film festival, the movie starts with a seemingly terrible premise: a family that teaches children to steal. Yet subtly, secrets are revealed and motivations are questioned. All the quite and calm storytelling leads up to a sup...
by KnowNth
Wed Dec 26, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What have you learned this year
Replies: 90
Views: 7556

Re: What have your learned this year

That when market drops, bogleheads surprisingly generate lots of noise as well. :D
by KnowNth
Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 249
Views: 22899

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

By 2005, I started becoming very nervous about the US economy, so I started divesting and buying what I thought were safer investments: Bond , Gold and Foreign Stocks. Well, unlucky for me, I chose the Vanguard Muni Bond Fund and Vanguard Precious Metal. Well, all of them crashed along with the mark...
by KnowNth
Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 36
Views: 3452

Re: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

Frankly I am shocked that so many posters, including some I greatly respect, on bogleheads, the site that preaches passive low cost index investment, invest not only in these active managed funds, but funds whose fees are well over 1%. I read the other long thread about AQR funds, I get that they ar...
by KnowNth
Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?
Replies: 97
Views: 8613

Re: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?

3.6% with the tax advantage minus inflation means that you make money by holding the mortgage. How come you make money by paying mortgage interest expense? It's called an expense for a reason. Because the lousiest investment that at least tracks inflation makes more money than you "lose" by having ...
by KnowNth
Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for Four Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER)
Replies: 814
Views: 94557

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

Thank you for the explanation! Rebates to borrowers should not be considered nefarious (not saying you were, just for folks reading along in the thread). The way that short selling works is that when a borrower borrows $100 of stock, they give $102 of cash to the fund as collateral. The fund can the...
by KnowNth
Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for Four Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER)
Replies: 814
Views: 94557

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

I am very confused now. In an earlier post, you replied to me: I may have been mistaken about this. Fidelity claims that 100% of net securities lending revenue goes to the fund. But in the latest post, you maintain your concerning that only 40% of the revenue ends up in shareholder's pockets. So is ...
by KnowNth
Wed Aug 01, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for Four Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER)
Replies: 814
Views: 94557

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

Could you please explain to a newbie? Are you saying the fidelity total market fund is more risky than Vanguard total market fund?

triceratop wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:48 pm

So for Total Stock Market about 40% of the return goes to investors who take 100% of the risk. Sweet deal, I'm sure Fidelity is loving this PR! :twisted:
by KnowNth
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 5054
Views: 1297780

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Saw documentary "Three Identical Strangers", excellent storytelling to an truly incredible story.

My best movie of the year so far (along with Death of Stalin)
by KnowNth
Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Destination - are you happy with your choice?
Replies: 127
Views: 17542

Re: Retirement Destination - are you happy with your choice?

What about Health Insurance? Do you purchase private insurance in Spain? Does that cover your traveling back to the states for visits? Spain, on the Costa Blanca. There certainly are places along the Mediterranean coast, France included, that would feature all, or most, of the factors I mentioned.
by KnowNth
Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 13435

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

Has this happened to other countries as well? Or it's only a US phenomenon due to the dollar status. Thanks.

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:36 am
At that time, the US was running deficits, the economy was strong, and yet interest rates were falling.
by KnowNth
Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unaffordable prescription drug
Replies: 42
Views: 5452

Re: Unaffordable prescription drug

prescription drugs are way cheaper in Canada.
by KnowNth
Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Move to Orange County
Replies: 50
Views: 5571

Re: Move to Orange County

Maybe I am way out of touch with reality, but is there an US county where 200K doesn't guarantee comfortable life if one rents?
by KnowNth
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Anyone Know Anything?
Replies: 36
Views: 4360

Does Anyone Know Anything?

I only started to read financial/investment news and analysis a couple years ago. But I have been deeply frustrated by what I read and what really happened. Looks like the experts have an explanation for everything, THEN reality hits. And experts quickly have a new theory for the new reality. For ex...
by KnowNth
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Weak Dollar, after likely four future interest rate hike?
Replies: 8
Views: 1348

Why Weak Dollar, after likely four future interest rate hike?

Please pardon my newbie questions. More than a year ago, there was this strong dollar rally because, apparently, Fed was increasing interest rates. So, I was told, the money in foreign currencies started to flow back to US dollars, thus drive up the dollar index. Now, we had three rate hikes in 2017...
by KnowNth
Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should we care about inflation?
Replies: 58
Views: 6625

Re: Why should we care about inflation?

I was told one of the best way to protect from inflation is to invest in stocks. Yet inflation damps stock returns.

I was told the other best way to protect from inflation was REITs. Yet VNQ down almost 10% in the last month.

Very confused.
by KnowNth
Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Your bond allocation when you were 48
Replies: 125
Views: 8994

Re: Your bond allocation when you were 48

I compared data from a similar survey 2.5 years ago. (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=168337). Sure enough, the difference is quite noticeable. Then: for the late 40s crowd, 12% of bogleheads has no bond. Average stock allocation 70% Now: 24% of bogleheads has no bond. Average ...
by KnowNth
Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA traditional -- How did they do that and What's the catch?
Replies: 31
Views: 3635

Re: TIAA traditional -- How did they do that and What's the catch?

Hi beardsworth, Thanks for the link. I did read the TIAA Traditional FAQ, but couldn't find my answer. I need to read more for sure. I also read the morning star link. The reason I asked this question is because the morningstar forum post about TIAA lawsuit, I only realized TIAA is a for-profit orga...
by KnowNth
Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA traditional -- How did they do that and What's the catch?
Replies: 31
Views: 3635

Re: TIAA traditional -- How did they do that and What's the catch?

Hmm, if they are bleeding, why are they paying 3.25% instead of the minim 3% right now? There is no catch as far as I can tell. Remember in the old days, 3% is not a very bar. These days it is a very good deal. So TIAA is trying to ride out the low interest rate environment with their "reserve" in t...
by KnowNth
Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA traditional -- How did they do that and What's the catch?
Replies: 31
Views: 3635

TIAA traditional -- How did they do that and What's the catch?

TIAA Supplemental Retirement account has a 3% guaranteed return, is fully liquid, is paying 3.25% at the moment. The last time 10 year treasure rate over 3% was 2011. TIAA must have taken more risks to get the extra return, but what were they doing? Invest in Stocks? Corp Bonds? Junk Bonds? I keep r...
by KnowNth
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Boglehead vs Mr Money Mustache philosophies]
Replies: 203
Views: 22552

Re: [Boglehead vs Mr Money Mustache philosophies]

Applause. You capture the essence of lots of Bogleheads posters. Bogleheads: Can't retire if you have less than $5M because you need to spend $100K/year and you might end up in a Alzheimer's care unit for more than 10 years. MMM: Tell everyone you retired early but start secret businesses repairing/...
by KnowNth
Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Third time in my 32 year career I have been laid off
Replies: 87
Views: 13312

Re: Third time in my 32 year career I have been laid off

Why all the suggestions for OP to move to a LCOL area? I refuse to believe with 2M+ asset and paid off house , one can't retire in CA at 55. With 1.6M asset, with conservative 3% withdrawal, that's 48K per year, Rental Income is 30K per year. So if OP's expense is less than 78K, there is no need to ...
by KnowNth
Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase
Replies: 120
Views: 10621

Re: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase

I have to say I am very surprised by the overwhelming NO answers. Why save money if can't spend it?

Let me rephrase the question and see if the answers will be different:

Can OP afford to reduce the saving rate from 60% to 30% for two years? then maybe back up to 40 or 50% afterward?
by KnowNth
Thu Aug 10, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase
Replies: 120
Views: 10621

Re: Struggling with Justifying an Expensive Car Purchase

I am more interested in how OP accumulated 1M net worth with 160K income (I assume much less when started working) in a little over 10 years.

And I believe even with the expensive car purchase, he will be able to retire early and have a nice life.
by KnowNth
Wed Jul 05, 2017 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seeking advice on 1.2m (now 900K) house purchase
Replies: 192
Views: 19603

Re: Seeking advice on 1.2m house purchase

I think SF Bay Area Real Estate is unlike anywhere else in the country, this is where most people come and don't want to leave. You rarely hear people debate where else to retire if they can afford it here. Even if OP asked about 800K house, vast majority would still say NO. But I think it may be qu...
by KnowNth
Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mid-40's, single parent, "retired", $1.6M portfolio, investment advice sought.
Replies: 50
Views: 10470

Re: Mid-40's, single parent, "retired", $1.6M portfolio, investment advice sought.

I must have missed something.

Even with 1% investment management fee, FireCalc gives 95% success rate on $51K withdrawal, 100% success rate with $46K withdraw. And this result does not even consider SS benefits.

If OP mentioned 40K expense, why all the worry and doom?
by KnowNth
Mon May 22, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What goes in your smoothie?
Replies: 45
Views: 4890

Re: What goes in your smoothie?

Dried Goji Berry

Learned from a healthy smoothie book, I now use it as sugar replacement.
by KnowNth
Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF P/E ratio confusion
Replies: 9
Views: 934

ETF P/E ratio confusion

I was trying to find out P/E ratio for total market ETF (ITOT) and got some very different numbers Google: 6.79 (https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:ITOT) Yahoo: 10.35 (http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ITOT?ltr=1) IShare: 21.22 (https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239724/ishares-core-sp-total-us...
by KnowNth
Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation Glide Path By Portfolio to Expense Ratio
Replies: 2
Views: 478

Re: Asset Allocation Glide Path By Portfolio to Expense Ratio

Thanks Larry. Could you explain a little more why you chose 60%? Did you change from 100% to 60% over night? FWIW, age, which GENERALLY relates to investment horizon (but may not if you are investing for the next generation--have bequeth desire) and is ONLY part of the ability to take risk issue (th...
by KnowNth
Fri Feb 10, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation Glide Path By Portfolio to Expense Ratio
Replies: 2
Views: 478

Asset Allocation Glide Path By Portfolio to Expense Ratio

I read a lot about allocation Glide Path by age, also a lot about allocation adjustment after "winning the game". What about those close to winning the game or fall behind the game? Should one keep his target allocation regardless whether his asset is already 25 times, 20 times, or 10 times of his y...