Search found 545 matches

by GAAP
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets
Replies: 67
Views: 9662

Re: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets

If you're an "expert" and you honestly admit, "I have no idea what is going to happen," then nobody listens to you. So you get what we have here.... :annoyed The trick is to make weighty proclamations, smothered with impressive statistical malarky -- and then charge people for interpreting the resu...
by GAAP
Sat Aug 11, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Vanguard website layout starting Saturday, August 11]
Replies: 115
Views: 7642

Re: Anyone noticing Vanguard website changes today Saturday August 11

Did you have individual accounts for those funds? They were moving everyone to the brokerage platform, might account for the changes you see.
by GAAP
Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11423

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I personally think the CAPE10 predictions are too conservative, and that actual returns will be higher. Not +6% higher, but maybe +2% higher. I came up with 1.93% low on average, when looking at 15-year returns using CAPE10 from 1881 to 1998. I was too lazy to bother adding 2014-2017 data to the so...
by GAAP
Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11423

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

12 month actual returns and near term forecasts have much more validity, but even those don't allow us to predict the future with any useable degree of accuracy. I'm curious, how do you define "useable degree of accuracy" keeping in mind that we're considering a 12-15 year period CAGR? Accurate eno...
by GAAP
Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11423

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

This all boils down to "tactical asset allocation" ie "market timing" despite the gobledygook double-talk from various posters. If that floats some peoples boat that's fine, but for God's sake quit denying it. Only if you use it for asset allocation -- I don't. Fortunately for you, there are a lot ...
by GAAP
Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11423

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

It would likely be better if people who don't know the future would just admit that they don't know anything about the future. I work every day in a field where 100s of millions of people depend on someone to predict the future sufficiently well for their phones to have service. We don't "know" the...
by GAAP
Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: When to Pick Mutual Fund over ETF?
Replies: 16
Views: 1653

Re: WSJ: When to Pick Mutual Fund over ETF?

Bill Bernstein suggests that using bond ETFs is not recommended as ETFs lack a mutual fund's requirement to redeem shares at NAV. In a liquidity crisis, the price of Bond ETF may drop way below the price of the underlying bonds and market makers may not able to use arbitrage effectively to keep the...
by GAAP
Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Safety Stow $ as family Trustee?
Replies: 9
Views: 613

Re: Help - Safety Stow $ as family Trustee?

In my personal opinion (IANAL), your concern should be primarily with preservation of principal, not returns on that principal. It sounds to me like the absolute maximum term in your case is 120 days. I doubt that anyone would fault you for using money market funds for that short a period. The fund ...
by GAAP
Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: When to Pick Mutual Fund over ETF?
Replies: 16
Views: 1653

Re: WSJ: When to Pick Mutual Fund over ETF?

As Jack Bogle says: There's nothing wrong with exchange-traded funds … as long as you don't trade them. That's equally true for mutual funds... Yes. I believe that was his point. He is not a fan of a product that seems to promote trading. I get that, but I wonder if it's really a chicken-and-egg th...
by GAAP
Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Biggest Threats to Financial Well-Being
Replies: 99
Views: 8994

Re: Biggest Threats to Financial Well-Being

Look in the mirror and make sure that person knows their unconscious biases, needs, and desires -- because that person is your greatest threat.
by GAAP
Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Buy a Tablet?
Replies: 16
Views: 1279

Re: Should I Buy a Tablet?

I use tablets with detachable keyboards at home and at work. I don't need the maximum power that a laptop would have, let alone a desktop. I do need the potentially lighter. less-bulky form factor. Universal USB docking stations for both give me access to all of the peripherals I could possibly want...
by GAAP
Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: When to Pick Mutual Fund over ETF?
Replies: 16
Views: 1653

Re: WSJ: When to Pick Mutual Fund over ETF?

GerryL wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:39 pm
As Jack Bogle says: There's nothing wrong with exchange-traded funds … as long as you don't trade them.
That's equally true for mutual funds...
by GAAP
Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11423

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Interesting on the Roth conversions. Can you describe your decision tree, and how CAPE plays into it? To estimate the impact of a chain of conversions, I need to estimate account balances. I use 1/CAPE10 as a proxy for real stock returns, apply it to my AA in the correct proportions for a given acc...
by GAAP
Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: When to Pick Mutual Fund over ETF?
Replies: 16
Views: 1653

Re: WSJ: When to Pick Mutual Fund over ETF?

Mutual fund is beer in a bottle. ETF is beer in a can. Same beer inside. If you're buying an ETF during trading hours and it's a widely traded ETF, you're paying the spread of what? 2 cents a share? (I just looked at SCHB and it's exactly 2 cents a share). Big deal. If it bothers you, put in a limi...
by GAAP
Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone regret paying off mortgage early?
Replies: 504
Views: 109230

Re: Anyone regret paying off mortgage early?

There's something of an inherent trade-off between the value of pure liquidity (cash in the bank) and future cash-flow improvements (no mortgage payments). For nearly anyone these days, paying down the mortgage will yield more in absolute terms than a truly liquid cash-equivalent account. It will al...
by GAAP
Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11423

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

they are only making the mistake of believing that forecasts have to be highly accurate to have value. 40% is plenty of explanatory power especially when you know the whole distribution shifts. Voltaire: In his writings, a wise Italian says that the best is the enemy of the good No, CAPE10 is not p...
by GAAP
Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone familiar with attic fans?
Replies: 32
Views: 1973

Re: Anyone familiar with attic fans?

powered attic ventilator fans are generally considered to be a net drain on energy savings, so a broken one is better than a working one: https://www.greenbuildingadvisor.com/article/fans-in-the-attic-do-they-help-or-do-they-hurt Yes. However, you may still need it for moisture control in some clim...
by GAAP
Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11423

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

It's far more reasonable to me to use this tool than simply relying upon averages of past performance. You pays your money and takes your chances, regardless. I rarely if ever see anybody on the forum suggesting that we rely on averages of past performance. More typically, I see posters suggesting ...
by GAAP
Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Skin in the game"
Replies: 105
Views: 7038

Re: "Skin in the game"

Get a “secured” credit card, if you can “lend” her the security (assuming she doesn’t have it). Keep it for a year or two to build up a record, then move on to an unsecured credit card. That is certainly an option now. Co-signing a loan is another. However, the advantage that I see to a small schoo...
by GAAP
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11423

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I wouldn't resort to an appeal-to-authority argument to try to justify CAPE as an appropriate tool for anything. That was more a response to "(based upon whatever academic methodology somebody dreamt up to make that chart)" than an appeal to authority. That said, nobody knows how the current CAPE 1...
by GAAP
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will rising inflation increase 401K and Roth contribution limits for 2019?
Replies: 11
Views: 1828

Re: Will rising inflation increase 401K and Roth contribution limits for 2019?

The reason I am asking: In BigCorp, it is the season of raises. I need to figure out what % of income to set aside to max out my 401K. I am currently at 20%, and max out my 401K. If the limit goes up, then I have to leave my contribution alone. If the limit remains unchanged, I can lower my percent...
by GAAP
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11423

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I believe that you are saying that CAPE 10 "was" the best predictor for "past returns" (based upon whatever academic methodology somebody dreamt up to make that chart). That's really not the same thing.... Huh? CAPE 10 correlates reasonably well to future returns over 10-15 year periods. IOW, calcu...
by GAAP
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Skin in the game"
Replies: 105
Views: 7038

Re: "Skin in the game"

I don't buy into the concept of "skin in the game" for education -- but I do wish I had let/told my daughter to get at least a small loan in college. That is the easiest way to start working on a credit rating. She graduated with no debt -- but also no credit history. Her options at this point are p...
by GAAP
Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SPG rewards....sucks?
Replies: 24
Views: 2682

Re: SPG rewards....sucks?

To my eyes, the merged programs are better for SPG people and devalue the Marriott Rewards people. I would argue it is way more nuanced than that. Those who principally earned their SPG points by credit card spend are taking a a huge hit (especially for airline redemptions). Marriott CC spenders ar...
by GAAP
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SPG rewards....sucks?
Replies: 24
Views: 2682

Re: SPG rewards....sucks?

I never got any value out of SPG -- never able to actually use those points.

Now that Marriott has acquired them and is merging the accounts, you might get some value. To my eyes, the merged programs are better for SPG people and devalue the Marriott Rewards people.
by GAAP
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Whole house generator
Replies: 31
Views: 1750

Re: Whole house generator

Why not just get solar panels with a battery? My solar panels are about 12KWH and cost after Govt 30% rebate $18,000, without a battery. The battery I was told is about $5-8K additional, and then you would get 30% off that as well, so for about 20-23K you can get the same effect of having a generat...
by GAAP
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone taken out an online mortgage?
Replies: 32
Views: 2136

Re: Has anyone taken out an online mortgage?

Did an online refi several years ago -- just needed a local mobile notary for the process. No real issues. Started the process to buy a house last year using Quicken, but the local sellers were highly resistant and essentially forced me to go local -- something of a pain when the new house was two s...
by GAAP
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A week in Budapest?
Replies: 22
Views: 1461

Re: A week in Budapest?

The Hospital in the Rock is fascinating -- English speaking tour guides readily available.
by GAAP
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Whole house generator
Replies: 31
Views: 1750

Re: Whole house generator

Two notes on Propane vs. Natural Gas. You will note that the propane model of the same generator is rated for slightly more KWH than the natural gas version because Propane has slightly more heat energy. The difference should not be a reason to choose one over the other. If you want to use natural g...
by GAAP
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How safe is VTIP?
Replies: 31
Views: 2162

Re: How safe is VTIP?

It would help to know what OP meant by "safe" -- protection of principal, protection or growth of real value, FDIC insurance? Different answers for different questions.
by GAAP
Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Whole house generator
Replies: 31
Views: 1750

Re: Whole house generator

You can see list prices for gensets online. Google shows a 22KW Generac base price at about 5K without installation, delivery, etc. There's not a lot of difference between a 22KW genset and an 11kw genset. What level of discount would you expect if you bought a car with the smaller engine instead of...
by GAAP
Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7556

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

Here's a timely article: https://pensionpartners.com/the-nikkei-straw-man/ Agreed, was just reading it as well. Seems most people who perpetuate the "lost decade" do so without including dividend reinvestment and assumes you only held Japan. Both unwise moves... diversify! And yet so many here only...
by GAAP
Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12878

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

The real problem with "Age in Bonds" is basing anything on age itself when age is really being used as a proxy for "time until need" -- with a host of assumptions around longevity, retirement age, etc. I could possibly accept something based upon years to expected withdrawal -- but even then, only w...
by GAAP
Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7556

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

Here's a timely article: https://pensionpartners.com/the-nikkei-straw-man/ Agreed, was just reading it as well. Seems most people who perpetuate the "lost decade" do so without including dividend reinvestment and assumes you only held Japan. Both unwise moves... diversify! And yet so many here only...
by GAAP
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: College Funds Allocation questions
Replies: 17
Views: 863

Re: College Funds Allocation questions

I just used an intermediate-term bond fund while the daughter in college. It actually managed to stay ahead of education inflation for that period.
by GAAP
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 38
Views: 3266

Re: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates

This does a great job of confirming several of my biases: The value of international diversification; The value of larger equity allocations in retirement; The necessity to use a variable withdrawal method; The necessity to base withdrawals on estimated/likely/expected future portfolio performance; ...
by GAAP
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone familiar with The Flexible Retirement Planner?
Replies: 5
Views: 1007

Re: Anyone familiar with The Flexible Retirement Planner?

If you like VPW and want a bequest, you could just roll your own version using a spreadsheet with the PMT formula and reserving a portion of your portfolio in the equation. For example: PMT( Rate, NPER, CurrentPortfolioValue, -0.2*CurrentPortfolioValue, 1). That will reserve 20% of portfolio as a fu...
by GAAP
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12878

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

Having just spent this past weekend going over my father-in-law's finances with him, I think I would have lost a reasonable amount of credibility with this 90-year-old gentleman who has multiple medical problems if I would have recommended 35% of his assets be invested in equities. I could have bro...
by GAAP
Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick
Replies: 84
Views: 8562

Re: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick

I know if there is a CAPE thread everybody has to go to their corners, but does anybody have any thoughts on the "improvements" Vanguard has suggested to the model? Namely that one should incorporate: a) real bond yields, b) expected inflation rates, and c) financial volatility into their forecast ...
by GAAP
Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: best place to hide a key
Replies: 63
Views: 4690

Re: best place to hide a key

The best suggestion that I've seen is on a sewn fabric bracelet around your wrist. Easy to find, no security concerns, hard to lose.
by GAAP
Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: weekender bag?
Replies: 30
Views: 2547

Re: weekender bag?

Define "reasonable price".

I've been very happy with the quality of both Tom Bihn https://www.tombihn.com/ and Red Oxx https://www.redoxx.com/.

I would rather pay a little more up-front for a bag that will last a decade, than replace a bag every few years.
by GAAP
Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Impact of higher property taxes on home price
Replies: 45
Views: 2301

Re: Impact of higher property taxes on home price

Bought a house in January, sold one in February in two different HCOL markets ~700 miles apart. I didn't see any effect on prices in any market. In fact, we got a cash offer for more than we asked on the sale. If I were selling today, I wouldn't consider that as a separate factor -- rather, somethin...
by GAAP
Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health and cognitive issues at age 80 and beyond...and managing finances
Replies: 17
Views: 2166

Re: Health and cognitive issues at age 80 and beyond...and managing finances

My mother had no issues managing money right up until her death at 88. I'm hoping that I'll do that well.
by GAAP
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter Part 5: International stocks
Replies: 12
Views: 1618

Re: Matter/Scatter Part 5: International stocks

But it seems to me the strongest argument for international is not to increase returns, but to reduce risk. Specifically, the risk of putting most of your money in one or a few countries that have very poor returns over the coming decades. Part of my reasoning also. Is there sufficient data availab...
by GAAP
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick
Replies: 84
Views: 8562

Re: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick

KlangFool wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:51 am
mbasherp,

To you, it is 30+ years into the future. To me, it is the next 3 to 4 years.

KlangFool
I'm guessing you plan to retire in 3-4 years, but if not then are you using Shiller PE for shorter terms than 10-15 years? If so, how?
by GAAP
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter-scatter, part 4: Bond allocation
Replies: 8
Views: 1435

Re: Matter-scatter, part 4: Bond allocation

The part that's within our control, through portfolio selection, is small compared to the part that's out of our control. You then have to add to that the problem that "control" just means "we can change it," but the arguments come because we don't know which way it will go! Nice synopsis -- someth...
by GAAP
Tue Jul 31, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold one stock 25 years
Replies: 68
Views: 6065

Re: Hold one stock 25 years

Assuming I was crazy enough to do this -- a regulated utility with an exclusive service area. At least I could hope it would still be in business in some form 25 years from now. But, I'm not that crazy. I wouldn’t- even regulated utility companies are exposed to market forces. Imagine holding a reg...
by GAAP
Tue Jul 31, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold one stock 25 years
Replies: 68
Views: 6065

Re: Hold one stock 25 years

Assuming I was crazy enough to do this -- a regulated utility with an exclusive service area. At least I could hope it would still be in business in some form 25 years from now.

But, I'm not that crazy.