Search found 1108 matches

by GAAP
Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What kind of sunglasses?
Replies: 107
Views: 6394

Re: What kind of sunglasses?

3M safety glasses -- polarized or not as desired, with anti-fog coating. $10-$30 depending upon how many you buy at once and the specific model.
by GAAP
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Weighted Vest for Exercise
Replies: 19
Views: 894

Re: Weighted Vest for Exercise

Be careful with the running and jogging. When I did that, I found that it really pounded my body. The rate of injury for running is already much higher than walking -- unless that vest is glued to you, it will fly up a bit and then slam down. Just walking for any decent period of time could also be ...
by GAAP
Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AA with variable drawdown
Replies: 12
Views: 549

Re: AA with variable drawdown

You may find it helpful to review the TVM thread: viewtopic.php?t=274243.
by GAAP
Tue May 19, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ford F150 Engine long term reliability - V8 versus Turbo V6?
Replies: 62
Views: 3916

Re: Ford F150 Engine long term reliability - V8 versus Turbo V6?

How do you define long-term? Proper servicing should make most vehicles last longer than most people actually own them. I still have a 1994 Ford Ranger with 400K miles on it, used as a daily (pre-pandemic) driver by my daughter.
by GAAP
Tue May 19, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did you determine your target savings rate?
Replies: 109
Views: 4804

Re: How did you determine your target savings rate?

And if it's not, I don't have to retire at 56. I could work a few more years while compound interest works its magic. So I guess my question is, how do I know if I'm saving enough? Or to flip it, how do I know if I'm saving too much, and it's impacting my quality of life? That's a big assumption th...
by GAAP
Tue May 19, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which ETF should i choose from the big list of Vanguard ETF's?
Replies: 19
Views: 1384

Re: Which ETF should i choose from the big list of Vanguard ETF's?

I would say for now, choose the world, split evenly: VT and BNDW. If you absolutely can't face owning international, then use VTI and BND. Immediately thereafter, read a lot, study a lot, and when you understand what you really need for an asset allocation, adjust as necessary. Right now, your bigge...
by GAAP
Tue May 19, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Practicing diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 616

Re: Practicing diversification

If in doubt, look up what happened to my former employer, Northern Telecom, Inc. Bankrupt after 100+ years of operation -- any stock holdings value reduced to zero... Corporations love stock options, grants, ESPPs, RSUs etc., because they are cheaper than cash -- that does not make them a good inves...
by GAAP
Thu May 14, 2020 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to adjust for inflation in retirement planning?
Replies: 19
Views: 1120

Re: How to adjust for inflation in retirement planning?

Using real terms requires a single net estimate. Variability in returns and inflation are more likely to partially cancel each other out. Using nominal terms requires two estimates that are then multiplied to create a real estimate. This is far more likely to be way off the mark. You need a real res...
by GAAP
Tue May 05, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Death Benefit -Annuity Inheritance
Replies: 38
Views: 2032

Re: Death Benefit -Annuity Inheritance

Backdoor Roth for a few years?
by GAAP
Sun May 03, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What experts say about "Stay-the-Course"
Replies: 32
Views: 12897

Re: What experts say about "Stay-the-Course"

Bogleheads: Mr. Bogle wrote: "No matter what happens, stick to your program ." He seldom, if ever, used the term: "Buy and hold." This is a big difference. Best wishes. Taylor Indeed. When sailing your ship, you may follow a bearing for a long time -- but you will almost certainly need to change it...
by GAAP
Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Annuity Distribution Options advice please
Replies: 16
Views: 917

Re: Pension Annuity Distribution Options advice please

In a similar situation, I did an NPV analysis of the different age income streams, using my life expectancy, and varying inflation rates. In my case, the higher the inflation rate, the earlier I should claim it (with a breakeven around 2%). However, I'm also on a multi-year plan to do Roth conversio...
by GAAP
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31958

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

I'm sure you've seen more of this than I have, but I've seen enough to suit me. Even high IQ doesn't seem to be sufficient for people to change their behavior, which I find odd. Humans are generally lousy at choosing long term benefits over short term -- thus the many financial behavioral issues wa...
by GAAP
Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International Bond Investing
Replies: 9
Views: 712

Re: International Bond Investing

Firm believer in Global Diversification here. I use a global stock ETF (VT) and global bond ETF (BNDW) for my core positions -- inflation holdings, whether equity or fixed income, are domestic since that's where my inflation risk exists.
by GAAP
Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why am I even saving for retirement?
Replies: 223
Views: 20233

Re: Why am I even saving for retirement?

So, Age 70 in 2055? Have you read the the latest Social Security Trustees Annual Report? (Summary here: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/ ). The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which pays retirement and survivors benefits, will be able to pay scheduled benefits on a timely basis unt...
by GAAP
Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Problem? with the 3 Fund Portfolio - what to do with Market Education?
Replies: 22
Views: 1315

Re: A Problem? with the 3 Fund Portfolio - what to do with Market Education?

I'm not a 3-fund investor, but I do have a simple portfolio. I continue to learn -- but until I determine that what I learned can be demonstrably better in action, I don't act. IOW, I don't see the absolute dichotomy that you seem to see. Choose a lazy portfolio that best fits the current state of y...
by GAAP
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: To REIT or not to REIT?
Replies: 28
Views: 2450

Re: To REIT or not to REIT?

I would never invest additional funds in the same industry that was driving my income before retirement. Doing so would double down on industry-specific risk. The associated return for that risk is not proportional -- even in real estate. In retirement, I have a small REIT allocation to manage long-...
by GAAP
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me figure out if I should even offer a 401K plan
Replies: 10
Views: 751

Re: Help me figure out if I should even offer a 401K plan

You might want to look at https://www.guideline.com/ as an alternative provider. $99/month base fee plus $8/month per participant for the more advanced plan. No portfolio fees for employees. A range of low-cost managed funds, plus pretty much anything Vanguard offers that would make sense in a 401(k...
by GAAP
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31958

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

The perpetual WR works as long you didn’t misjudge your expenses. And as long as the worst that happens during your retirement is no worse than the worst that happened in the past... PWR is certainly safer than SWR -- but you are still making an assumption based upon history. Granted, as time goes ...
by GAAP
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16922

Re: Still using total bond market?

Yes -- to the extent that it's part of a global bond allocation (BNDW). If anything, the recent actions by the Fed have made me less likely to limit myself to Treasuries. I'm a firm believer in diversifying within an entire asset class and against failure in any single economy. Care to tell what el...
by GAAP
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31958

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

The perpetual WR works as long you didn’t misjudge your expenses. And as long as the worst that happens during your retirement is no worse than the worst that happened in the past... PWR is certainly safer than SWR -- but you are still making an assumption based upon history. Granted, as time goes ...
by GAAP
Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31958

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

The perpetual WR works as long you didn’t misjudge your expenses. And as long as the worst that happens during your retirement is no worse than the worst that happened in the past... PWR is certainly safer than SWR -- but you are still making an assumption based upon history. Granted, as time goes ...
by GAAP
Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31958

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

I feel that making any significant plans for the future based upon a limited set of data about events that happened in the past is somewhat irrational. SWR as a method to describe history is reasonable. SWR is only reasonably applicable to the future if you are willing to assume that conditions are ...
by GAAP
Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16922

Re: Still using total bond market?

Yes -- to the extent that it's part of a global bond allocation (BNDW).

If anything, the recent actions by the Fed have made me less likely to limit myself to Treasuries. I'm a firm believer in diversifying within an entire asset class and against failure in any single economy.
by GAAP
Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gardening 2020
Replies: 155
Views: 11722

Re: Gardening 2020

For cats, deer, and probably other 4-legged garden pests: a motion-sensor water sprinkler works well.
by GAAP
Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: GOOD RX...What Is It?
Replies: 37
Views: 2950

Re: GOOD RX...What Is It?

Around here, a number of veterinarians also accept Good RX for animal prescriptions -- which your health insurance certainly won't pay for.
by GAAP
Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When Would You Close Your “Small” Remaining TIRA?
Replies: 5
Views: 258

Re: When Would You Close Your “Small” Remaining TIRA?

So when: After balance has all been converted and all possible 1099-Rs have been received. What if it was an Inherited IRA (which can’t be converted)? Say you withdrew as much as you wanted but the remainder just increases your taxes too much. I would use the Inherited IRA before using anything fro...
by GAAP
Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE / Bond Yield Asset Allocation Model ?
Replies: 13
Views: 649

Re: Shiller PE / Bond Yield Asset Allocation Model ?

I use CAPE10 to estimate long term equity returns, but I wouldn't use it to determine an AA. CAPE10 changes overnight when prices change -- that's a fairly poor way to set an AA unless you're day-trading. I think what you want is some rational manner to determine relative risk/reward for stocks and ...
by GAAP
Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was 1970s inflation a one-time thing?
Replies: 57
Views: 4140

Re: Was 1970s inflation a one-time thing?

I could posit any number of potential causes for inflation -- especially using modern analogs to the oil supply. Precious metals that weren't even useful at the time, for example. Desperate attempts to buy land above a rising sea level, for another. Are these likely? I have no clue, but I also have ...
by GAAP
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion planning in a bear market
Replies: 63
Views: 4332

Re: Roth conversion planning in a bear market

I agree. My intention is to Roth convert as much of my risk portfolio (equities) into my Roth as possible prior to reaching IRMAA and than RMD ages. It now looks like unless the market sky rockets, I can substantially complete that by January 2021, even without additional 2020 conversions. Once the...
by GAAP
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 83
Views: 7660

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

How do you go about this? Do you think actual experience* is needed to reveal who we really are as investors? *experience as in the experience of going through bull and bear markets, and the experience of gaining / losing significant portion of our money in the market. Experience helps to the degre...
by GAAP
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion planning in a bear market
Replies: 63
Views: 4332

Re: Roth conversion planning in a bear market

While we are not in the same situation as we are still ~20 years from retirement but are in a lower tax bracket last year and this year, we are conververting some tIRA over to Roth. This drop will be a good time to move more funds with less tax burden. Our accounts (tIRA and Roth) are at Vanguard. ...
by GAAP
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Down >4%
Replies: 49
Views: 8982

Re: My BND fell down and can't get up -- what's with safe bond returns?

Bonds may be generally uncorrelated or even negatively correlated with stocks. However, that does not imply that bonds will always go up when stocks go down, or vice versa. It also does not imply that the scale of any change in bonds will match the change in stocks. Bad news overall is bad news for ...
by GAAP
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does your Crystal Ball say?
Replies: 96
Views: 4840

Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

The future's uncertain, and the end is always near
by GAAP
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion planning in a bear market
Replies: 63
Views: 4332

Re: Roth conversion planning in a bear market

While we are not in the same situation as we are still ~20 years from retirement but are in a lower tax bracket last year and this year, we are conververting some tIRA over to Roth. This drop will be a good time to move more funds with less tax burden. Our accounts (tIRA and Roth) are at Vanguard. ...
by GAAP
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"
Replies: 44
Views: 3835

Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Yin and Yang... What goes up must come down Spinnin' wheel, got to go round Talkin' 'bout your troubles, it's a cryin' sin Ride a painted pony, let the spinnin' wheel spin You got no money, you got no home Spinnin' wheel, all alone Talkin' 'bout your troubles and you, you never learn Ride a painted ...
by GAAP
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Choosing a university/college for my son a future Computer Science Major
Replies: 117
Views: 8909

Re: Choosing a university/college for my son a future Computer Science Major

GAAP Do you have knowledge of the Computer Science Department at CSU Chico? We are steering clear of the CSUs because of impaction and over-crowding. Chico has limited impaction, to my knowledge. I know they have a good reputation -- and have had one for decades. My quick skim of the online ratings...
by GAAP
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth IRA conversion on Vanguard site
Replies: 11
Views: 747

Re: Roth IRA conversion on Vanguard site

It's easy to do -- just be aware that the amount converted is based upon NAV at the end of the day.
by GAAP
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping cash on hand during times like this???
Replies: 10
Views: 1263

Re: Keeping cash on hand during times like this???

I rarely carry cash at all. Anything that I would be likely to buy, with or without a pandemic, could be purchased without cash -- and I would be handling only my card, not paper items touched by many.
by GAAP
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 5756

Re: Why is BND going down?

"Down" is relative...

Just checked, VTI is down 8.33%, BND is down 1.90%.

5 years of that would take the 100% stock portfolio down to ~65%, and the 100% bond portfolio down to ~91%. Evaluating long-term investment choices based upon intra-day drops is not effective.
by GAAP
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Rebalancing During the Corona Virus
Replies: 18
Views: 2288

Re: Asset Allocation Rebalancing During the Corona Virus

Waiting to rebalance until there's less uncertainty? How would you dispassionately evaluate "less uncertainty"? If you have a rebalancing policy, you presumably set it when things were more certain, in part to make yourself do it when times are uncertain. I would say that you should follow your pol...
by GAAP
Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Choosing a university/college for my son a future Computer Science Major
Replies: 117
Views: 8909

Re: Choosing a university/college for my son a future Computer Science Major

California State University, Chico would be another.

Yes, in California -- but not close to the really expensive places in the Bay Area or SoCal.
by GAAP
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 5035

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

My guess is that with all of the talk about recession, most folks aren't worried at all about inflation -- especially short term.
by GAAP
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often do you re-balance during these times?
Replies: 42
Views: 3557

Re: How often do you re-balance during these times?

I use the range rebalancing method described by Gobind Daryanani with a 20% rebalance band and 10% tolerance bands. The 20 Market Day look interval corresponds nicely to normal fund distributions. I send all distributions to cash, using the new funds to purchase whatever is farthest below target. Tw...
by GAAP
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Debt levels concern me; do they change your asset allocation or target retirement portfolio size?
Replies: 9
Views: 842

Re: Debt levels concern me; do they change your asset allocation or target retirement portfolio size?

It may make sense to hold something other than bonds, but most of the alternatives you suggest will act much differently than bonds. If income alone is your concern, then some of those may make sense. Once you add capital preservation as a requirement, the equation may change. The 4% rule is not rea...
by GAAP
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Withdraw rate questions ?
Replies: 7
Views: 469

Re: Withdraw rate questions ?

If that's a constant percentage -- not adjusted for inflation -- you won't run out. This is simple arithmetic, since there's always something left (at least during normal lifetimes). Historically, even with an inflation adjustment, you wouldn't have run out. Constant percentage implies that you are ...
by GAAP
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Questions from a new investor on these topics: 401k target date vs passive funds, Roth 401k, recommended reading
Replies: 12
Views: 316

Re: Questions from a new investor on these topics: 401k target date vs passive funds, Roth 401k, recommended reading

The Terrible Truth About Investing by Bruce J. Temkin. It does a good job of explaining the key concepts, and warning about the common misleading information out there. It was published in 1999 -- and many of the bad things he described happened in the next few years. After that, you will have a bet...
by GAAP
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stocks during Two Modern-Era Pandemics, 1957 & 1968
Replies: 44
Views: 5843

Re: U.S. Stocks during Two Modern-Era Pandemics, 1957 & 1968

I think there are two important new variables in this not-yet-official pandemic: A delicate global supply chain, and the potential for supply shocks. The 24-hour news cycle, and how it drives consumer behavior. I'm not sure how either of these could improve matters, but I can think of plenty of way...
by GAAP
Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stocks during Two Modern-Era Pandemics, 1957 & 1968
Replies: 44
Views: 5843

Re: U.S. Stocks during Two Modern-Era Pandemics, 1957 & 1968

In sum, rather than be fearful that every new global virus outbreak is the second coming of the Black Death, perhaps we need to expect the relatively predictable economic losses and ensuing market disruptions that these outbreaks bring — and trust that they'll be temporary, as they have proven to b...
by GAAP
Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Kiddie Bogleheads / Boglehead Seniors?
Replies: 12
Views: 1198

Re: Kiddie Bogleheads / Boglehead Seniors?

Having some indication of age, and stage in the investing process might be helpful. Me as an old guy probably shouldn't be following too many suggestions from the wild young turks on here. Just a thought. Given the number of "late start retirement", and "retire early" posts, I doubt you could link ...
by GAAP
Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios
Replies: 46
Views: 3356

Re: Actual vs hypothetical experience

I wasn't bothered by the 10-12% drop in mid-2008, so I don't think we have evidence yet. Me either -- in fact, my only memories are of the wild TV reporting and newspaper headlines at the time. But then, I didn't "do" anything in 2008, during the Dotcom Bust, or Black Monday. The recent events are ...