Search found 634 matches

by Ron Scott
Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The 1 portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1664

Re: The 1 portfolio

2 thoughts: 1. Minimize international investments. They have similar risks as the US, plus you face currency risk and a shakier history. Bogle doesn't really see the point in it either. 2. "Your age in bonds", even for the hard-driving, risk-averse investor. Rephrase the question "How would you feel...
by Ron Scott
Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX
Replies: 5
Views: 849

Re: VTSAX

I own VTSAX. I want additional exposure in the mid and small cap arenas. I want to add VIMAX and VSMAX. Any thoughts? The traditional bogglehead theory would be to diversify equities by owning the broader in a way that allows each company’s share to be weighted by its contribution to the overall ca...
by Ron Scott
Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule .. but when?
Replies: 35
Views: 4166

Re: 4% rule .. but when?

The 4% rule stems from an assumption that the past, specifically past investment returns in one country, America, will predict the ability of a retirement nest egg to support a family’s 30-year future starting at any given time. Little effort is spent describing why such an assumption would be viabl...
by Ron Scott
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 reasons we overcomplicate investing - Allan Roth
Replies: 5
Views: 1329

Re: 4 reasons we overcomplicate investing - Allan Roth

You mean we DON’T know the future? We can’t just plug our data into Firecalc and get the answers?
by Ron Scott
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about investing in bonds
Replies: 17
Views: 1470

Re: Question about investing in bonds

If you can live off your bonds for 20 years or more, i.e., if you won't find yourself in a position of having to sell stocks in a downturn, you can invest more aggressively than the adage "your age in bonds" implies. If you can't, don't. I definitely cannot live 20 years off of bonds. Maybe 5 years...
by Ron Scott
Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2178

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

Not looking forward to seeing the PE revert, but it will...
by Ron Scott
Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about investing in bonds
Replies: 17
Views: 1470

Re: Question about investing in bonds

If you can live off your bonds for 20 years or more, i.e., if you won't find yourself in a position of having to sell stocks in a downturn, you can invest more aggressively than the adage "your age in bonds" implies. If you can't, don't.
by Ron Scott
Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Firecalc Says No Benefit to a Higher Equity Asset Allocation??
Replies: 47
Views: 4513

Re: Firecalc Says No Benefit to a Higher Equity Asset Allocation??

Firecalc, as well as the various Monte Carlo sims in use today, are entertaining, but because they rely on historic data that by definition is dependent on times gone by, are essentially irrelevant to the future and dangerous tools to establish your retirement planning on. If we can't rely on histo...
by Ron Scott
Sun Jul 29, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Firecalc Says No Benefit to a Higher Equity Asset Allocation??
Replies: 47
Views: 4513

Re: Firecalc Says No Benefit to a Higher Equity Asset Allocation??

Firecalc, as well as the various Monte Carlo sims in use today, are entertaining, but because they rely on historic data that by definition is dependent on times gone by, are essentially irrelevant to the future and dangerous tools to establish your retirement planning on. If we can't rely on histo...
by Ron Scott
Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Firecalc Says No Benefit to a Higher Equity Asset Allocation??
Replies: 47
Views: 4513

Re: Firecalc Says No Benefit to a Higher Equity Asset Allocation??

Firecalc, as well as the various Monte Carlo sims in use today, are entertaining, but because they rely on historic data that by definition is dependent on times gone by, are essentially irrelevant to the future and dangerous tools to establish your retirement planning on.
by Ron Scott
Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Jim Cramer a Closet Boglehead?
Replies: 22
Views: 2250

Re: Is Jim Cramer a Closet Boglehead?

Cramer is a clown and can be enjoyed as such.
by Ron Scott
Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Your age in bonds?
Replies: 57
Views: 6442

Re: Your age in bonds?

“Your age in bonds” doesn’t make sense for me because it doesn’t account for what one has and what one spends. I will try to “live on bonds and leave stocks behind”. If the market does well my heir will benefit greatly: If it does not she will at least get the step up in value. I myself will remain ...
by Ron Scott
Wed Jul 25, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 3-year glide from 60-40 to 40-60?
Replies: 5
Views: 525

A 3-year glide from 60-40 to 40-60?

Is it a) timing the market, or b) assuming a recession "sometime" between now and 2021/2022 without timing it?
by Ron Scott
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 76
Views: 10624

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

Isn’t it true that a handful of stocks have explained most of the growth in the market for most of history?
by Ron Scott
Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target date funds....unsophisticated?
Replies: 64
Views: 4786

Re: Target date funds....unsophisticated?

Target date funds, really? If someone posted they changed their AA every year, paid higher fees for investing than they needed to so someone else could manage their investments, invested in funds that unnecessarily manufactured taxable events every year, and set an AA that didn’t really match their ...
by Ron Scott
Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dry Powder Strategies?
Replies: 103
Views: 6134

Re: Any Dry Powder Strategies?

Nearing retirement and feeling FI I have bottomed out my equity allocation and expect it to have a rising guide path, at least in the early years of retirement. As a results, I have more or less ended up with dry powder. My intention going forward had been to add new contributions between here and ...
by Ron Scott
Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock buy backs?
Replies: 13
Views: 650

Re: Stock buy backs?

I just read that a lot of companies are buying back their own stocks this year. Questions: 1. Why would they do this when the market is so high? 2.What does this mean to stockholders? 3.What does this mean to the market in general? Peace, JTJjr Companies who make a strong profit end up with cash th...
by Ron Scott
Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?
Replies: 46
Views: 5273

Re: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?

For planning purposes, I am honestly using a zero percent real rate of return. Hopefully it is a few percent too conservative and hopefully the real rate is not negative. Given today's valuatuons, I don't consider zero conservative. I think fair value for equities is 40% lower than today's levels. ...
by Ron Scott
Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?
Replies: 46
Views: 5273

Re: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?

For planning purposes, I am honestly using a zero percent real rate of return. Hopefully it is a few percent too conservative and hopefully the real rate is not negative. Given today's valuatuons, I don't consider zero conservative. I think fair value for equities is 40% lower than today's levels. ...
by Ron Scott
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wanting to self-manage retirement accounts - Advice Requested
Replies: 12
Views: 1549

Re: Wanting to self-manage retirement accounts - Advice Requested

The only real questions that are pertinent are: 1. What is your risk tolerance, and have your allocations conformed to that tolerance? 2. In the event of a severe market downturn, will you have the presence of mind to avoid panic selling? Let’s rephrase this to make it a little less abstract, and j...
by Ron Scott
Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What stocks are excluded from VG’s total international funds?
Replies: 6
Views: 690

Re: What stocks are excluded from VG’s total international funds?

Yeah, these comments seem plausible and I'm sure they're all doing a great job, but I don't know. I'm just wondering if anyone here knows which stocks are excluded from that FTSE index and why they were excluded.
by Ron Scott
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What stocks are excluded from VG’s total international funds?
Replies: 6
Views: 690

What stocks are excluded from VG’s total international funds?

VTIAX et al include 98% of the world’s traded stocks (FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index).

What’s left out and why?
by Ron Scott
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Advisor: Jazz Wealth (CRD #282807)
Replies: 21
Views: 1059

Re: Financial Advisor: Jazz Wealth (CRD #282807)

Totally agree with bloom and magicrat. This is a complete waste of your time and money.

Re-read the wiki and the Bogleheads Guide to Investing, and ask questions here.
by Ron Scott
Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs
Replies: 83
Views: 5323

Re: Multi-Factor funds vs. Total Stock Market

vineviz wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:32 pm

Someday I hope to meet someone who truly understands factor investing AND thinks it is a blatantly flawed approach.
My guess is if you found someone who didn't think factor investing was an improvement over the basic 2-fund approach you'd conclude they didn't truly understand it.
by Ron Scott
Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner Indexing Help
Replies: 9
Views: 910

Re: Beginner Indexing Help

regarding long-term bond funds, while this area is pretty unfamiliar to me, some of what i've read (e.g. Bernstein 4 pillars) had suggested the interest rate risk of long-term funds was not worth the increase on the yield curve. although i suppose with a bond portfolio that is split 30-40-30 you ar...
by Ron Scott
Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting the "Three Fund Portfolio"
Replies: 13
Views: 2278

Re: Starting the "Three Fund Portfolio"

Keep it up! Two thoughts for you: 1. Read up on "asset location" in the wiki and the Bogleheads guide. (Many other investment books cover it too.) You'll be on the road to tax efficient savings in no time. The comment above re: housing bonds in taxable is a good one. Munis usually work better in tax...
by Ron Scott
Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner Indexing Help
Replies: 9
Views: 910

Re: Beginner Indexing Help

1. I'm trying to compensate for the 90/10 equity to bond AA of the VITLX target date by expanding the bond component of my portfolio. We've added the Vanguard TIPS fund and my plan is to add VWITX (Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt) to our new taxable account (~7% total AA). Does this make sens...
by Ron Scott
Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on "If You Can, How Millenials Can Get Rich Slowly"
Replies: 30
Views: 3786

Re: Question on "If You Can, How Millenials Can Get Rich Slowly"

I think Bernstein phrased the comment in a weird way and I'd just chalk it up that. The point is that unlike many things in a young person's life seeking the advice of friends on investment matters is not necessary and may not lead you down the right path. Smart investing involves asset allocation m...
by Ron Scott
Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a way to avoid bad companies in S&P 500?
Replies: 92
Views: 4694

Re: Why would creating an intelligent S&P 475 be so difficult to do?

I get it. The brightest stock analysts cannot beat the market with their actively managed funds… But why can’t those same bright ones at least identify 25 dogs out of 500 large companies? Or 20? Or even 10? What exactly makes something like that so very difficult to accomplish? Because you want to ...
by Ron Scott
Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a way to avoid bad companies in S&P 500?
Replies: 92
Views: 4694

Re: Why would creating an intelligent S&P 475 be so difficult to do?

I get it. The brightest stock analysts cannot beat the market with their actively managed funds… But why can’t those same bright ones at least identify 25 dogs out of 500 large companies? Or 20? Or even 10? What exactly makes something like that so very difficult to accomplish? Because you want to ...
by Ron Scott
Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a way to avoid bad companies in S&P 500?
Replies: 92
Views: 4694

Why would creating an intelligent S&P 475 be so difficult to do?

[Thread merged into here, see below (next page). --admin LadyGeek] I get it. The brightest stock analysts cannot beat the market with their actively managed funds… But why can’t those same bright ones at least identify 25 dogs out of 500 large companies? Or 20? Or even 10? What exactly makes someth...
by Ron Scott
Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Bogle’s Reversion to Mean tenet have practical utility?
Replies: 4
Views: 511

Does Bogle’s Reversion to Mean tenet have practical utility?

Boggle tells us that the speculative component of market returns (PE) is subject to reversion to the mean over time. Long-term gowth, therefore, depends solely on the earnings and dividends of businesses. He also tells us that reversion to mean is not easily forecastable. Does this hold any practica...
by Ron Scott
Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Toss Your Expectations
Replies: 36
Views: 4753

Re: Larry Swedroe: Toss Your Expectations

In rationally developing an investment plan, one needs to estimate future expected returns of the asset classes. This is incorrect. It is not necessary. And I have never liked the insinuation that one is not "rational" unless one follows Swedroe. All I expect is long-term positive returns. I expect...
by Ron Scott
Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Toss Your Expectations
Replies: 36
Views: 4753

Re: Larry Swedroe: Toss Your Expectations

Changes in valuations (P/E) are Bogle’s speculative component, and Larry believes that what Bogle means by speculative is unforcastable. Given that speculative component is unpredictable, they simply assume no change. Bogle is pretty clear on what he means an it certainly isn't an assumption of no ...
by Ron Scott
Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Toss Your Expectations
Replies: 36
Views: 4753

Re: Larry Swedroe: Toss Your Expectations

dupe of what appears below
by Ron Scott
Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is today's furniture market wackier than ever?
Replies: 18
Views: 2476

Is today's furniture market wackier than ever?

I recently bought a new bedroom set, from Stickley (upstate NY). Mission Oak, solid hardwood, old school cool. If you like the style the quality is very good. I also bought a few pieces from a manufacturer called Theodore Alexander (Viet Nam) that I'd say is well constructed and of good quality. Fin...
by Ron Scott
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to invest without regret" - Daniel Kahneman
Replies: 20
Views: 2795

Re: "How to invest without regret" - Daniel Kahneman

Another (short) Kahneman article: Nobel Laureate Has Most Awkward Dinner Ever With Financial Advisers He Just Destroyed Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman claims in his book Thinking, Fast And Slow that the stock picking industry is built largely on an "illusion of skill." Among the evidence he gives is...
by Ron Scott
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to invest without regret" - Daniel Kahneman
Replies: 20
Views: 2795

Re: "How to invest without regret" - Daniel Kahneman

Two portfolios, one risky, one safe. That sounds like my one portfolio... with stocks and bonds. Kahneman, a true Scholar as classically defined, understands that people hate to lose more than they love to win and is attempting a work-around on the propensity of the average investor to sell equitie...
by Ron Scott
Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: So much angst
Replies: 52
Views: 6142

Re: So much angst

Could you elaborate a bit on your weighted average ER of .075%. Everytime I try to do something similiar with target date funds I come up with at least double that. So for me I'm saving over 5G a year using admiral index funds and such. Well worth some angst. I don’t get target funds either. If som...
by Ron Scott
Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you/How do you stress-test your plan?
Replies: 29
Views: 1534

Re: Do you/How do you stress-test your plan?

Have you looked at the Trinity study and withdrawal rate research? 25X expenses should be good for a 30 year retirement based on all historical scenarios. If you are conservative, you can save more for additional protection . The problem I have in using historical US market return data is that whil...
by Ron Scott
Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you/How do you stress-test your plan?
Replies: 29
Views: 1534

Re: Do you/How do you stress-test your plan?

In retirement I make sure that I have enough assets in FDIC products and short term bond funds to cover my current draw down needs for X years. For me I am able to do that to age 90 or 20 years. The excess is invested 67/33. I track my expenses to determine any expense creep and will adjust my asse...
by Ron Scott
Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you/How do you stress-test your plan?
Replies: 29
Views: 1534

Do you/How do you stress-test your plan?

This issue is MUCH more involved than setting an appropriate asset allocation but that’s a good place to start. Most people have goals for their portfolio, all or part of which involves paying for living expenses throughout retirement. So stress testing an AA by asking under what circumstances you w...
by Ron Scott
Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could Annuities be considered Bonds in AA
Replies: 27
Views: 1732

Re: Could Annuities be considered Bonds in AA

Bogle himself would likely have you categorize the capitalized present value of annuities, SS and pension payments as bonds for the purposes of developing an asset allocation with a position in US equities between 25% and 75%. For reasons unknown the Bogleheads approach typically excludes such recur...
by Ron Scott
Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hitting your number---Now What?
Replies: 19
Views: 3012

Re: Hitting your number---Now What?

1. If you’re under 62 and in good health keep at it and continue to build wealth for retirement. More is safer.
2. Your age in bonds is the safest way to control for bear and inflation risk.
by Ron Scott
Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 206
Views: 33564

Re: Amazon Customer Reviews and The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio

I’m halfway through the Kindle copy and it’s reaffirming. Well done indeed.

Nice job Taylor, you should be proud.
by Ron Scott
Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a point of "Peak Passive" with index funds?
Replies: 12
Views: 1221

Re: Is there a point of "Peak Passive" with index funds?

I think the markets have gotten more efficient over time and front running has become less of an issue; correct me if I’m wrong here.

But regardless of any gaming, passive index funds do better. Not sure there’s more to it than that.
by Ron Scott
Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heavy in equities?
Replies: 46
Views: 4821

Re: Heavy in equities?

Someone had a great post a while back that concluded “I have a 50-50 portfolio since I can tolerate losing half my money without any effect on my lifestyle. Because that’s the half I’m leaving to the kids.“ That’s the psychology of someone who really has “won the game”, with a withdrawal rate of 2%...
by Ron Scott
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heavy in equities?
Replies: 46
Views: 4821

Re: Heavy in equities?

So retirees or those nearing retirement might consider doing a stress test like what happened in 2008. While each "correction" is different 2008 seemed to be pretty much a worse case (or close to it). The results might help fashion an allocation that fits your retiree status - it even might confirm...
by Ron Scott
Sat Jun 23, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: AARP: 10 Commandments [of Money, by Allan Roth]
Replies: 19
Views: 2783

Re: AARP: 10 Commandments [of Money, by Allan Roth]

XI. Thou shalt not do business with an organization that wastes money and material by sending unsolicated mail to you for many years, even though you have never expressed any interest in being a member. But then how would we know how John Travolta go the part for Gotti or whether Rosanne and Tom sp...