Search found 589 matches

by Ron Scott
Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 125
Views: 20940

Re: Amazon Customer Reviews and The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio

I’m halfway through the Kindle copy and it’s reaffirming. Well done indeed.

Nice job Taylor, you should be proud.
by Ron Scott
Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a point of "Peak Passive" with index funds?
Replies: 11
Views: 789

Re: Is there a point of "Peak Passive" with index funds?

I think the markets have gotten more efficient over time and front running has become less of an issue; correct me if I’m wrong here.

But regardless of any gaming, passive index funds do better. Not sure there’s more to it than that.
by Ron Scott
Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heavy in equities?
Replies: 31
Views: 2750

Re: Heavy in equities?

Someone had a great post a while back that concluded “I have a 50-50 portfolio since I can tolerate losing half my money without any effect on my lifestyle. Because that’s the half I’m leaving to the kids.“ That’s the psychology of someone who really has “won the game”, with a withdrawal rate of 2%...
by Ron Scott
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heavy in equities?
Replies: 31
Views: 2750

Re: Heavy in equities?

So retirees or those nearing retirement might consider doing a stress test like what happened in 2008. While each "correction" is different 2008 seemed to be pretty much a worse case (or close to it). The results might help fashion an allocation that fits your retiree status - it even might confirm...
by Ron Scott
Sat Jun 23, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: AARP: 10 Commandments [of Money, by Allan Roth]
Replies: 14
Views: 1935

Re: AARP: 10 Commandments [of Money, by Allan Roth]

XI. Thou shalt not do business with an organization that wastes money and material by sending unsolicated mail to you for many years, even though you have never expressed any interest in being a member. But then how would we know how John Travolta go the part for Gotti or whether Rosanne and Tom sp...
by Ron Scott
Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: AARP: 10 Commandments [of Money, by Allan Roth]
Replies: 14
Views: 1935

Re: AARP: 10 Commandments

Let's get back on-track. As you wish, Lady... From my perspective, the point is this: AARP, like most others who observe the plight of today's investor with her interests in mind and little skin in the game, rightfully conclude the investment industry is ridden with charlatans, who are more interes...
by Ron Scott
Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: AARP: 10 Commandments [of Money, by Allan Roth]
Replies: 14
Views: 1935

Re: AARP: 10 Commandments

XIII. Thou shalt remember that syntax can make a big difference in sentence meaning, so that thou shalt write "avoid (like the plague) limited-time offers" instead of "avoid limited-time offers (like the plague)." Unless thou truly meaneth that the plague itself was a limited-time offer. I am remin...
by Ron Scott
Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heavy in equities?
Replies: 31
Views: 2750

Heavy in equities?

One of the difficult things for someone like me, who places very little faith in old US historical data for predicting future returns, is setting an diversified asset allocation. I've ended up with a 40-60 mix (investable assets) in the past year, but I do so with the knowledge that I'll never have ...
by Ron Scott
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 50: Should I?
Replies: 93
Views: 11154

Re: Retire at 50: Should I?

I have a hard enough time understanding the willingness of a 62 year old to believe old historical US market data are the perfect independent variables for modeling a 30 year retirement period. The thought that a 50 year old would do so is unsettling... It is also hard to believe that a 50 year old'...
by Ron Scott
Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: AARP: 10 Commandments [of Money, by Allan Roth]
Replies: 14
Views: 1935

AARP: 10 Commandments [of Money, by Allan Roth]

I had to laugh at a piece in AARP's Money Saver section this week, by a financial planner with 20 years experience--who essentially warns people about dealing with those who sell investments. EVERY ONE of the "10 Commandments of Smart Money" is a warning against the financial industry's salesforce. ...
by Ron Scott
Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much of your taxable holdings is unrealized capital gains?
Replies: 46
Views: 3318

Re: How much of your taxable holdings is unrealized capital gains?

I think this is very relevant- especially for planning expenses. It can have huge implications on Roth conversions in low income years. In those years the ability to extract sufficient money but with lesser gains means more Roth space at the same standard of living YEP... Many of us can't get giddy...
by Ron Scott
Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth IRA conversion with non-deductible contributions
Replies: 12
Views: 871

Re: Roth IRA conversion with non-deductible contributions

I did originally, about $250k, and immediately transferred that amount to a Roth. But the 401k administrator provided all the documentation for me to do that easily and my accountant handled the filing. Since it was something I would only do once I was glad to have all parties singing from the same ...
by Ron Scott
Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth IRA conversion with non-deductible contributions
Replies: 12
Views: 871

Re: Roth conversion plan and questions

I played with all this myself and then decided to work with my accountant on it. He knows my finances and my plan, and he ran the numbers for me. It didn't take him long.

My initial approach proved too conservative for the potential savings I could realize and I was glad to sought help.
by Ron Scott
Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total International Fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1762

Re: Vanguard Total International Fund

I personally side with people like Bogle, who don't believe Americans need to buy international stocks to diversify effectively. I do understand the rationale of those who are looking to buy stocks now and feel the American market is overpriced, but then you have to grapple with the "don't time the ...
by Ron Scott
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3721

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

I guess when your assumptions are based on thin air you can derive any conclusion you want, and if you decide all knowns are invalid because things are different now you can refute anything you wish. Oh do tell us the truths you are so privileged to know: What is "known" about the future to you and...
by Ron Scott
Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation for a 26 year old?
Replies: 15
Views: 1282

Re: Asset Allocation for a 26 year old?

Between 25% and 75% equities is the gold standard, with a heavier allocation for those who can withstand a deep recession. DCAing your way in that range seems like a good strategy for someone in your position. Eschew extremes. I’d also recommend developing reasoned expectations for where your likely...
by Ron Scott
Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3721

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

As far as I know the 4% number was never claimed to be valid for a global portfolio which virtually every Boglehead implements today. Several studies have been done by various groups and individuals. Wade Pfau's work often gets cited here. Tyler over at Portfolio Charts is another relatively recent...
by Ron Scott
Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3721

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

Whatever helps you sleep at night is fine, but your formula appears to be a recipe for working longer than needed and ending up with a pile of money that is not spent.. Without making the assumption that past market returns can predict future market returns over the period of an individual‘s retire...
by Ron Scott
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3721

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

Whatever helps you sleep at night is fine, but your formula appears to be a recipe for working longer than needed and ending up with a pile of money that is not spent.. Without making the assumption that past market returns can predict future market returns over the period of an individual‘s retire...
by Ron Scott
Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3721

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

Anything except the most conservative portfolio should be able to do more than just keep up with inflation. If you look at the Trinity study, most of the portfolios with at least 50% equities have very substantial terminal values. But you are using historical market return data to justify your conc...
by Ron Scott
Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3721

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

One benefit of the “keep up with inflation” theory is that it is NOT based on historical data. It is another attempt to address the same problem, by other means. That it yields a SWR somewhat close to what the historical-data theorists find should be reassuring. I also find it interesting that there...
by Ron Scott
Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3721

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

Well - 3.33% is less than 4% so already very conservative. Do you adjust the withdrawal to account for inflation - or does it stay fixed? Do you recalculate every year? Do I get to take 5% 10 years into my 30 year retirement? Whoa... 1. This is not well-formed theory. This is just the beginning, ba...
by Ron Scott
Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3721

A different theoretical view of SWR

If you're like me and believe that churning calculations of historical market returns is not a useful exercise for predicting future returns, you're still left with everyone's problem: how to determine a SWR. From a theoretical perspective I've come to believe that over the long term reasonable inve...
by Ron Scott
Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Balancing the Burden and the Benefit of Wealth
Replies: 11
Views: 1493

Re: Balancing the Burden and the Benefit of Wealth

Yes, "freedom" is key, perhaps a sufficient target in and of itself. But wealth also connotes things like a good financial cushion, lifestyle and legacy to me. I'd say wealth is having the freedom to live the lifestyle I want for myself and my loved ones, without worrying about swings in the economi...
by Ron Scott
Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 55
Views: 3449

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

I think "what makes factors endure" is the amount of money they earn for those who use them to market their services.

If it looks and smells like an actively managed pile, don't step in it.
by Ron Scott
Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for a prolonged bear market
Replies: 65
Views: 5414

Re: Strategy for a prolonged bear market

I didn't see it mentioned above so I'll throw out the obvious Plan B for a particular class of investor. This is for those who are a) retired, b) not really employable, c) depend on a relatively high WR and d) who have maintained an overly aggressive equity position in their AA. These retirees are l...
by Ron Scott
Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with individuals stocks?
Replies: 15
Views: 924

Re: What to do with individuals stocks?

I am in a worse position than you. I hold 20% of my net worth in a single stock in a taxable account, my former employer. It is a perennial grower, up more than 35% in the past year alone, and has a realistic growth strategy for the next 5 years that should result in double-digit EPS and sales incre...
by Ron Scott
Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: rolling 10yr period returns for different stock/bond mixes
Replies: 5
Views: 523

Re: rolling 10yr period returns for different stock/bond mixes

For your purposes, I would refer to the Vanguard economic and market forecast here: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGVEMO.pdf . Page 27 gives their estimate for the 60/40 portfolio (including international) at4.5% nominal. They also show returns at two confidence intervals and some other portfo...
by Ron Scott
Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NYT Story on Importance of Working Just a Little Longer
Replies: 27
Views: 4703

Re: NYT Story on Importance of Working Just a Little Longer

Let’s rephrase:

A. If you can work longer it will almost always lead to a better financial outcome for you.
B. Choosing to retire earlier than you need to will almost never lead to a better financial outcome.
by Ron Scott
Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it fine to have 100% of portfolio in VTSAX
Replies: 33
Views: 3125

Re: Is it fine to have 100% of portfolio in VTSAX

Not the best strategy.

The general approach, Bogle/Graham, is to maintain 25-75% in American equities, with a more aggressive posture in your early years. That’s the best advice be heard.
by Ron Scott
Mon May 28, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique Opportunistic Rebalancing
Replies: 6
Views: 542

Re: Critique Opportunistic Rebalancing

Rebalancing is always just a mind game, and an odd one at that. (Do spouses with divergent tolerances for risk set allocations that neither is happy with? Is tolerance for risk everlasting and immutable?) But it has a meaning. It speaks to buying and selling assets based on what's happening inside y...
by Ron Scott
Mon May 28, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting out
Replies: 19
Views: 2799

Re: Starting out

You're doing well and, yes, you should reduce risk. The general guidelines in this forum will serve you well and there is no need to pay a financial advisor, robo-advisor or whatever, for advice on investing you can get here for free. Investing is one of those oddities in life in which its not rocke...
by Ron Scott
Mon May 28, 2018 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Creative Planning vs Vanguard PAS
Replies: 90
Views: 5374

Re: Creative Planning vs Robo-advisor

I'm totally confused.

What advice exactly are you looking for and willing to pay so much for? What questions do you have? What do you feel you need help with?
by Ron Scott
Sun May 27, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8291

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

All the comments above notwithstanding, inflation IS a disaster for retirement funds... We rightly complain about FAs and high-cost investment vehicles which can cost us a percent of our earnings. They're intolerable to most of us. But inflation takes double that amount. You cannot plan for unforese...
by Ron Scott
Sun May 27, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New doctor looking for your seasoned advice on initial investments
Replies: 14
Views: 1934

Re: New doctor looking for your seasoned advice on initial investments

I plan to invest 20% of my income. Someone told me i should invest half of that 20% toward retirement and half in some more high risk type of funds. But wanted to know generally what i should do with my budgeted 20% investment strategy? Starting with an asset allocation having somewhere between 25%...
by Ron Scott
Sun May 27, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two Fund Vanguard vs. Managed Portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 1662

Re: Two Fund Vanguard vs. Managed Portfolio

Smoke and mirrors, including mismatching asset allocations to show a better return.

Your 2-fund is sound. Forget international equities. Stay the course.
by Ron Scott
Thu May 24, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NY Insurance Costs on the Rise
Replies: 12
Views: 1108

Re: NY Insurance Costs on the Rise

To the extent that the cost of that which is being insured for rises, the cost of insurance will rise too. Because insurers books of business vary, the cost to them of taking on new business could vary too; pricing varies naturally among insurers. So yes, it pays to shop. Annually. Americans tend to...
by Ron Scott
Thu May 24, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How big a portfolio should I have before retiring?
Replies: 60
Views: 9663

Re: How big a portfolio should I have before retiring?

50 x annual spending is very conservative. If 50 x annual spending is what it takes to make you feel comfortable, so be it. I understand that you're probably speaking to Ron Scott and/or Sandtrap, but I agree that a 2% (50x annual spending) withdrawal rate is extremely conservative. Probably me, as...
by Ron Scott
Thu May 24, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Non-qualified Stock Options; when to sell?
Replies: 8
Views: 553

Re: Non-qualified Stock Options; when to sell?

The correct answer, for whomever is asked, is to diversify. But you know your company and we do not. I exercised and held options, paying the tax out of cash for many many years and even took out loans to do so. In the end It paid off like the lottery. But that's me. Did the "exercise and hold" do ...
by Ron Scott
Thu May 24, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How big a portfolio should I have before retiring?
Replies: 60
Views: 9663

Re: How big a portfolio should I have before retiring?

Question How big of a portfolio would you require to feel comfortable retiring? I would require a portfolio of at least 50x (50 times annual income/expenses needed) to begin to feel comfortable in retirement. And even more than that would add to that comfort level. :D I too like the 50x approach as...
by Ron Scott
Fri May 18, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Non-qualified Stock Options; when to sell?
Replies: 8
Views: 553

Re: Non-qualified Stock Options; when to sell?

The correct answer, for whomever is asked, is to diversify.

But you know your company and we do not.

I exercised and held options, paying the tax out of cash for many many years and even took out loans to do so. In the end It paid off like the lottery. But that's me.
by Ron Scott
Fri May 18, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Risks Of Short Selling
Replies: 8
Views: 1170

Re: Larry Swedroe: Risks Of Short Selling

Relative to the overall market, this board is pretty optimistic. The overall global stock/bond mix is about 40/60, but around here 60/40 is looked at as fairly conservative and everyone is implored to "stay the course" when they are thinking about dumping their stocks because the market dropped, be...
by Ron Scott
Thu May 17, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Property as a supplemental income strategy in retirement?
Replies: 7
Views: 858

Rental Property as a supplemental income strategy in retirement?

We have owned 2 rental properties for some time now. Both in desirable locations and both well maintained. We've been making about 5-6% of the resale values before taxes. With the first one the tenant balked at a 3% increase. That problem was quickly solved by moving my mother in there at cost. The ...
by Ron Scott
Thu May 17, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having trouble figuring out expected expenses in retirement
Replies: 37
Views: 2682

Re: Having trouble figuring out expected expenses in retirement

If you don't already, I would start doing a monthly budget. Once you start doing that for a few months, I think you will see what expenses might be eliminated or reduced (i.e. Retirement Savings, Mortgage, gas) and what might increase (medical, travel, etc...) in retirement. No one can predict your...
by Ron Scott
Wed May 16, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 39
Views: 3074

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

While buying what is cheap may outperform buying what is expensive in the long term, it begs the question why not buy what's both cheap and good, which sends us down a familiar rabbit hole. But the ultimate question for investors is can active strategies outperform Bogle. Larry has some more work to...
by Ron Scott
Wed May 16, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I afford to retire now?
Replies: 45
Views: 6624

Re: Can I afford to retire now?

I would not retire given the circumstances you describe, especially your consideration of making a major life change by moving to a different state and the fact that you are obviously concerned you're in a borderline situation financially. You have the means to live modestly/well in CA and quite wel...
by Ron Scott
Mon May 14, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Grant date of ISOs reset when company acquired?
Replies: 9
Views: 761

Re: Grant date of ISOs reset when company acquired?

You know your exercise date and should not use etrade to determine it. They're using something to determine it...maybe correctly, maybe not. Since you led the options for a decade before you exercised you already paid tax at that time to accomplish the exercise. When you eventually sell the residual...
by Ron Scott
Mon May 14, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement - aka - plan B.
Replies: 7
Views: 1929

Re: Early Retirement - aka - plan B.

I was pretty much in your financial position at your age, except I didn't spend as much and had 2 fewer kids. FWIW, I do not like your plan B because its too rich. You can look at your position a few ways: 1. Using a constant 5% real return net of taxes for 35+ years simply increases the risk factor...
by Ron Scott
Sun May 13, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Digital Advisor for $20/month - Worth it ?
Replies: 11
Views: 1469

Re: New Digital Advisor for $20/month - Worth it ?

rgs92 wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 10:39 am
With a nice 3-fund portfolio, you do not need any type of adviser. I would let this forum be your adviser. Good luck.
Wow. Clear and succinct.

I have never heard it said as well...
by Ron Scott
Sun May 13, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Two Fund or A Managed Portfolio?
Replies: 13
Views: 969

Re: Vanguard Two Fund or A Managed Portfolio?

Hiring a financial advisor is usually a waste of money and especially so in your case because you already get it. You already know how to earn what the market is paying and financial advisors rarely beat the market BEFORE considering their fees. I have no idea what that sample portfolio is supposed ...