Search found 1074 matches

by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule
Replies: 66
Views: 4439

Re: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule

At the OP: A major problem with the 4% rule is if the worst markets do not occur, the retiree will die with far more unspent than he/she started with for retirement. At heyyou and OP: This is an incredibly false and misleading statement for the very simple reason that we DO NOT KNOW what "the worst...
by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 04, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule
Replies: 66
Views: 4439

Re: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule

At the OP: A major problem with the 4% rule is if the worst markets do not occur, the retiree will die with far more unspent than he/she started with for retirement. At heyyou and OP: This is an incredibly false and misleading statement for the very simple reason that we DO NOT KNOW what "the worst...
by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teaching kids there is an ample amount of money
Replies: 108
Views: 8064

Re: Teaching kids there is ample amount of money

I'm wondering how high net worth families teach their children about money. I think I'll tell my kids that we are blessed / fortunate to not have to worry about money but we are also resourceful and don't buy a bigger house or fancier cars (or more toys) just because we can. To me that seems more t...
by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to guesstimate returns of lifestrategy funds?
Replies: 19
Views: 929

Re: Best way to guesstimate returns of lifestrategy funds?

Hi All, Is there a decent way to guesstimate the forward looking returns of the lifestrategy funds? Right now, the only thing I know how to do is to use Simba's backtesting spreadsheet to calculate the total return by weighting the individual components (TSM, TBM, etc.) Is there a better way? Thank...
by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule
Replies: 66
Views: 4439

Re: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule

I have a quick question on the 4% rule. From what I understand this rule states that one can withdraw 4% of the portfolio in the first year of retirement and then increase 4% by inflation and that the portfolio would last your lifetime. The question I have is. Say I start with one million and say i...
by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Close to the Bull Trap phase of the market cycle
Replies: 32
Views: 2809

Re: Close to the Bull Trap phase of the market cycle

neuroawesom wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:50 am
I am thinking of converting my portfolio into Cash and put in CDs/savings and wait for correction.
Well, you just missed selling and buying into a market correction in the past couple weeks. How are you going to do better next time?
by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett Repurchases More Than $900 Million of Stock: is the stock market overpriced?
Replies: 10
Views: 2847

Re: Buffett Repurchases More Than $900 Million of Stock: is the stock market overpriced?

Found this: https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-repurchases-more-than-900-million-of-stock-1541248428 does it mean that everything in the US (apart perhaps from Berkshire) is overpriced since Buffett could not find any investment ideas? I think Buffett would rather buy o...
by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 04, 2018 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ: The New Retirement Plan: Save Almost Everything, Spend Virtually Nothing]
Replies: 74
Views: 8583

Re: [WSJ: The New Retirement Plan: Save Almost Everything, Spend Virtually Nothing]

I don't understand the why those who don't agree with the FIRE movement (most of whom have a dog in that belief system: ie: Suze), need imply a psychological problem. Live and let live the way I want to live in the face of consumerism is the basic FIRE premise. Why the need to pathologize? I don’t ...
by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ: The New Retirement Plan: Save Almost Everything, Spend Virtually Nothing]
Replies: 74
Views: 8583

Re: [WSJ: The New Retirement Plan: Save Almost Everything, Spend Virtually Nothing]

I don't understand the why those who don't agree with the FIRE movement (most of whom have a dog in that belief system: ie: Suze), need imply a psychological problem. Live and let live the way I want to live in the face of consumerism is the basic FIRE premise. Why the need to pathologize? I don’t ...
by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ: The New Retirement Plan: Save Almost Everything, Spend Virtually Nothing]
Replies: 74
Views: 8583

Re: [WSJ: The New Retirement Plan: Save Almost Everything, Spend Virtually Nothing]

It makes me sad these people are focused SO much on retirement like it’s the holy grail. They say they wouldn’t do anything differently if they had more money but I don’t believe that. Like if you’d won the lottery you’d still only drink $5 bottles of wine ($5 bottles mentioned in the article)? No,...
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 03, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ: The New Retirement Plan: Save Almost Everything, Spend Virtually Nothing]
Replies: 74
Views: 8583

Re: WSJ FIRE

A quote from the article say is all for me: Brandon Ganch, 36, who retired from his job as a software engineer in 2016, said his frugality became an obsession and he stressed over small purchases by his wife. He often got upset when visitors took long hot showers at his former Vermont home or his w...
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 03, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What FIRE says to me [Financial Independence, Retire Early]
Replies: 10
Views: 1127

What FIRE says to me [Financial Independence, Retire Early]

I could have retired at 45 instead of 61 and I'm glad I did not. The second half of my career was much more challenging and rewarding in every way. I literally couldn't sleep well at night because of exciting opportunities I was working on during the day. (Sometimes I'd be sending emails out when I ...
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 03, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ: The New Retirement Plan: Save Almost Everything, Spend Virtually Nothing]
Replies: 74
Views: 8583

Re: WSJ FIRE

A quote from the article say is all for me: Brandon Ganch, 36, who retired from his job as a software engineer in 2016, said his frugality became an obsession and he stressed over small purchases by his wife. He often got upset when visitors took long hot showers at his former Vermont home or his wi...
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 03, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where should I be financially at 39?
Replies: 42
Views: 5952

Re: Where should I be financially at 39?

It is too low. I am conservative and think 30X expenses in savings is a good number for someone retiring around 63-66. The more the better... 30X expenses is a crazy goal for most people (it would support your current lifestyle indefinitely with no SS, given the just over 3% withdrawal rate). That ...
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 03, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax-efficient fund placement
Replies: 8
Views: 784

Re: Tax-efficient fund placement

"All things being equal" having taxable bonds in the tax deferred IRA is a standard strategy, and using muni funds in taxable if you need more bonds for your desired allocation. Stocks--held for cap gains purposes--in taxable. Some people keep a portion of their stock holdings in IRAs fo rebalancing...
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Sometimes, It’s Bonds For the Long Run
Replies: 72
Views: 6104

Re: WSJ: Sometimes, It’s Bonds For the Long Run

Well, with a 50% Equities and a 50% Bond portfolio, I figure I'm covered no matter what. :D That is Bogle's portfolio too and he complains that half the time he thinks he's underweighted in stocks and half the time he thinks he's overweighted. You know, for a forum that stresses "past is not a pred...
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 03, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Sometimes, It’s Bonds For the Long Run
Replies: 72
Views: 6104

Re: Questioning the Dogma of "Stocks for the Long Run"

Past performance is no guarantee of future results doesn't mean "you can't learn anything from the past". The question for most is not "can you learn from the past?". it is: Can you predict market returns in the future for a specific 30- or 40-year retirement period? The weighty concerns are specif...
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 03, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategies for investing w/large annual capital gains
Replies: 8
Views: 1103

Re: Strategies for investing w/large annual capital gains

I rode the same train as you for many years before retiring. Beat the market by leaps and bounds and loved every minute. Give them 200% and enjoy the ride. I made the mistake of wasting my time with an advisor and never took any advice. Left them for VG and am fine now. It doesn’t make a difference ...
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 03, 2018 5:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"
Replies: 46
Views: 3451

Re: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"

Not understanding. Why should the government tell me who I should be doing business with? The government does not tell you who you can do business with. It requires companies seeking money from the general public to share certain informations and abide by certain rules which are enforced by the SEC...
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Easy retirement income method.
Replies: 20
Views: 3813

Re: Easy retirement income method.

It seems one of the biggest risks of a probability SWR strategy is sequence of return. The problem arises when you are forced to sell stocks or bonds at a loss (market crashed, interest rates are rising). My idea is to set up my accounts to sweep all dividends and interest into my cash account. If ...
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"
Replies: 46
Views: 3451

Re: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"

Not understanding. Why should the government tell me who I should be doing business with? The government does not tell you who you can do business with. It requires companies seeking money from the general public to share certain informations and abide by certain rules which are enforced by the SEC...
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"
Replies: 46
Views: 3451

Re: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"

Not understanding.

Why should the government tell me who I should be doing business with?
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where should I be financially at 39?
Replies: 42
Views: 5952

Re: Where should I be financially at 39?

I believe 25X expenses is a poor guide. It assumes that your portfolio only produces income equal to inflation for 25 years and doesn't give a yearly guide. I think the following guide is more useful, it indicates how much your retirement portfolio should be in reference to your age and your gross ...
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where should I be financially at 39?
Replies: 42
Views: 5952

Re: Where should I be financially at 39?

Break down long term goals into short term actionable steps. .... to include the following ... every day ... until it is a behavioral habit. 0. Focus on earning as well as saving and investing. Without the first nothing happens. 1. Minimize expenses 2. Avoid debt 3. Maximize income 4. Invest in you...
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging at age 70+?
Replies: 5
Views: 506

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging at age 70+?

There is no reason not to invest the excess funds in the market. Considering that you could live into your 90's the future you will appreciate it. The investing has to be done consistent with your investing plan and risk tolerance for which 100% S&P may be just fine given your overall financial pos...
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is an "advanced" investor?
Replies: 34
Views: 2597

Re: What is an "advanced" investor?

staythecourse wrote: To me an advanced investor means one knows enough to know that most stuff doesn't matter beyond the basics. The great thing about this website is the unbelievable depth of knowledge that folks present from their personal knowledge of their careers/ educational backgrounds all f...
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is an "advanced" investor?
Replies: 34
Views: 2597

What is an "advanced" investor?

In a recent post, someone commented that a particular website was helpful for both BEGINNER AND ADVANCED INVESTORS.

What is an "advanced investor"?
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple's share plummeting: should we 'kick out the largest stock' as Rob Arnott suggests?
Replies: 40
Views: 2103

Re: Apple's share plummeting: should we 'kick out the largest stock' as Rob Arnott suggests?

linenfort wrote:
Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:33 am
Ron Scott wrote:
Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:15 am
linenfort wrote:
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:38 am
No, Steve. Just buy more Apple shares.
I don't think it works that way...
You don’t think what works what way?
An investment strategy based on trading individual stocks.

See the wiki for more info. An investment strategy using low-cost index funds typically works better.
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!
Replies: 136
Views: 11539

Re: Core-4 Investing

And now we have Rick Ferri’s thesis . Did you know that Rick Ferri has been a member since 2007 and his portfolio's are among the many that are discussed and utilized here? Did you know that he was the co-editor of the Boglehead's Guide to Investing? Did you know that he is the host of the new Bogl...
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple's share plummeting: should we 'kick out the largest stock' as Rob Arnott suggests?
Replies: 40
Views: 2103

Re: Apple's share plummeting: should we 'kick out the largest stock' as Rob Arnott suggests?

linenfort wrote:
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:38 am
No, Steve. Just buy more Apple shares.
I don't think it works that way...
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!
Replies: 136
Views: 11539

Core-4 Investing

I don’t think something like core 4 is overly complex but it’ll be fun to see where we’re headed. The original Boglehead, John C., is a 2-fund kinda guy. Most forum members seem to lean toward a separate 3-fund with international (stocks, but not bonds). There always seems to be a thread about Larry...
by Ron Scott
Thu Nov 01, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantifying loss due to rebalancing and market timing
Replies: 18
Views: 1208

Re: Quantifying loss due to rebalancing and market timing

By tracking inflows over time they do get periodic investing behaviors and they’re not looking at a single fund. And apples-and-oranges is EXACTLY that they end up concluding. The funds’ reported returns are the apples and our returns the oranges. It’s actually a well done study with results that s...
by Ron Scott
Thu Nov 01, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantifying loss due to rebalancing and market timing
Replies: 18
Views: 1208

Re: Quantifying loss due to rebalancing and market timing

Neither. This is not a simple computer game like people here play with to guess their futures. And it’s obviously not limited to contributions. What makes the gap real is investor behavior—including withdrawals due to market timing, spending, rebalancing etc. Morningstar looks at cash inflows and o...
by Ron Scott
Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantifying loss due to rebalancing and market timing
Replies: 18
Views: 1208

Re: Quantifying loss due to rebalancing and market timing

I thought most of you decry market timing and simply assume that rebalancing does not boost long-term returns. Change of heart out there? No, but one must compare apples to apples, even if an apples to oranges comparison supports the preferred position. Seems to me the annual Morningstar Return Gap...
by Ron Scott
Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantifying loss due to rebalancing and market timing
Replies: 18
Views: 1208

Re: Quantifying loss due to rebalancing and market timing

I thought most of you decry market timing and simply assume that rebalancing does not boost long-term returns. Change of heart out there? No, but one must compare apples to apples, even if an apples to oranges comparison supports the preferred position. Seems to me the annual Morningstar Return Gap...
by Ron Scott
Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantifying loss due to rebalancing and market timing
Replies: 18
Views: 1208

Re: Quantifying loss due to rebalancing and market timing

Y'all a tough crowd, for what I thought was a interesting effort by Morningstar to actually quantify what BHers already believed.

I thought most of you decry market timing and simply assume that rebalancing does not boost long-term returns.

Change of heart out there?
by Ron Scott
Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantifying loss due to rebalancing and market timing
Replies: 18
Views: 1208

Quantifying loss due to rebalancing and market timing

In relatively volatile times we are reminded of Morningstar’s Return Gap studies: We don’t enjoy the full returns our funds provide... The average investor has lagged behind the average fund for the past 10 years. The reason is that, in aggregate, investors’ timing is not very good. Over the 10 year...
by Ron Scott
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWELX, VTSMX [Vanguard Wellington, Total Stock Market]
Replies: 7
Views: 1553

Re: VWELX, VTSMX [Vanguard Wellington, Total Stock Market]

^ This ^

Fans of this 100-stock + bonds fund usually appear here when it is mentioned but you’re better off with true passive diversification in total stock and total bond funds.
by Ron Scott
Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Investing/Personal Finance Books?
Replies: 10
Views: 946

Re: Best Investing/Personal Finance Books?

I just finished The Boglehead's Guide to Investing, and it's probably the only book I need, but does anyone have any other book recommendations for investing or personal finance? Why not hear it directly from the horse's mouth? https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Common-Sense-Investing/dp/1119404509...
by Ron Scott
Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Changing Asset Allocation Based On Market Forecasts - Market Timing?
Replies: 7
Views: 720

Re: Changing Asset Allocation Based On Market Forecasts - Market Timing?

https://www.morningstar.com/videos/888358/building-a-portfolio-for-a-lowreturn-world.html The following is from an interview with Fran Kinniry of Vanguard; "I think sometimes market forecasting gets a negative connotation, but there's really only a couple of ways you can do this. You can use histor...
by Ron Scott
Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calculating ROI for PhD
Replies: 86
Views: 4847

Re: Calculating ROI for PhD

Unless you have an automatic increase in total comp for completing an advanced degree or can get a job with high pay that requires a PhD, there is no good way to do this at the individual level, and aggregated stats are so confounded with other variables they are all but useless for predicting comp ...
by Ron Scott
Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spreading the Risk - World Stock versus S&P 500?
Replies: 11
Views: 1580

Re: Spreading the Risk - World Stock versus S&P 500?

SmilerUK wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:13 am

You asked what's the logic?

My logic is that the US has always been the stronger and more stable market. Certainly more than the UK or even global markets.

So I'm trying to spread the risk.
Good thinking!
by Ron Scott
Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my Investment Policy Statement
Replies: 9
Views: 1017

Re: Critique my Investment Policy Statement

I’m glad you’re thinking about so many issues and starting so early in life. Keep thinking! Some thoughts for you... 1. Don’t assume a specific return, like 8% in equities. Assume returns will be low and be pleasantly surprised if they turn out better. Y 2. As you save for your future, become financ...
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else feel giddy every time VXUS gets creamed? [Vanguard Total International]
Replies: 69
Views: 6281

Re: Anyone else feel giddy every time VXUS gets creamed?

denovo wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:52 pm
hdas wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:29 pm
This is apt to describe the sentiment of this thread

Image

+1
+2

I don’t count on stock market returns for retirement spending but I believe the US will outpace international in the long term. I side with Bogle here.
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long term...."
Replies: 10
Views: 1394

Re: "The long term...."

Equities in a truly ROBUST portfolio will sit for 15-20 years without being needed for spending.
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: inherited IRA
Replies: 14
Views: 1347

Re: inherited IRA

curmudgeon is essentially correct, but what do you mean "they put me in 84.9% in stocks and 6.3 % in bonds"?

When you told them you are concerned about investing at this time they just did it anyway or talked you into it?
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the growing national debt a reason to diversify with international?
Replies: 33
Views: 3425

Re: Is the growing national debt a reason to diversify with international?

Is the growing national debt a reason to diversify with international?

No. The debt characteristics don't help matters but you can stay the course with a 2-fund without FOMO on international.
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just starting out at 39 yrs old.
Replies: 37
Views: 5351

Re: Just starting out at 39 yrs old.

If you keep saving you should be fine. Stay on these boards and read the wiki here. Get your husband involved too. You will learn, trust me. Also, here are 2 excellent books, and no, you don't need someone to tell you where to put your money. Financial advisors who invest for you make it sound more ...
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Shopping strategy?
Replies: 9
Views: 803

Re: Shopping strategy?

I'm a woman and I HATE returning stuff. In fact if I buy something and it turns out I don't like it, I GIVE it away! I have a few women friends who return stuff all the time. To me it seems an incredible waste of time and energy. Ugh. :| When my wife and daughter bring something home from a store, ...