Search found 380 matches

by Ron Scott
Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After a 2- or 3-fund solution, the rest is withdrawals and world events
Replies: 1
Views: 252

After a 2- or 3-fund solution, the rest is withdrawals and world events

I like a 2% WR but will likely be going for a 2.5% rate for the near-term future. I know some of you think that’s low and I have a few thoughts on this. Assuming one has saved some money, it seems to me the simplicity of the boglehead allocation strategy—set and forget—leaves only 2 things that can ...
by Ron Scott
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Achieve CAGR of 6% in non-taxable Acct?
Replies: 4
Views: 441

Re: How to Achieve CAGR of 6% in non-taxable Acct?

I don't believe anyone can guarantee you a specific return and unless you go with an immediate annuity for some of your taxable assets "you get what you get." Investing outside a very low cost index fund isn't a great idea IMO and no one should expect the next decade to be a good one for equities. A...
by Ron Scott
Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: on keeping a tranche of active mgmt in Roth
Replies: 16
Views: 576

Re: on keeping a tranche of active mgmt in Roth

I think the bogleheads have a pretty good "story" to tell about their investing strategy and I believe its in your own best interest to develop one for yourself. If you believe there's a better strategy than owning the market you are, by definition, predicting that you can take money away from other...
by Ron Scott
Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions
Replies: 80
Views: 6878

Re: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions

Jack on pensions Nice read in Bloomberg: The founder of Vanguard Group thinks a conservative portfolio of bonds will only return about 3 percent a year over the next decade, and stocks won’t do much better, with a 4 percent annual gain over a similar period. This is “totally defeating” for pensions...
by Ron Scott
Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fama - Embrace passive management already
Replies: 16
Views: 2421

Re: Fama - Embrace passive management already

I'm familiar with Fama and the Larry portfolio etc., but I'm not understanding the recommendation. While history isn't a good guide to the future lets just use it for this case: Have investors with significant tilts toward small company stocks-- using widely available small cap funds from Vanguard, ...
by Ron Scott
Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RSUs: Restricted Stock and taxation
Replies: 13
Views: 821

Re: RSUs: Restricted Stock and taxation

The cost basis for restricted shares is the price per share upon lapse, in your case $10.

The fact that you decided to sell shares to pay the tax is incidental, so look at it on a per share basis, not for the entire staunch.
by Ron Scott
Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does it always make sense to delay SSA?
Replies: 15
Views: 1175

Re: Does it always make sense to delay SSA?

I use Quicken's Social Security Optimizer: https://www.quickensso.com/Portal/ This program locks in your own age once (so you own it) and then lets you model all other SS variables and choose your own claiming scenarios. The output shows in clean graphs and tables how your scenario compares to their...
by Ron Scott
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard or Betterment for our company 401k plan?
Replies: 10
Views: 1266

Re: Vanguard or Betterment for our company 401k plan?

We are going to switch our company 401k plan over to a lower cost provider. We are a relatively young and growing company with 114 plan participants and about 7M in plan assets. It looks like Vanguard will be about 22 basis points for combined fund fees and administrative fees. Betterment would be ...
by Ron Scott
Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature
Replies: 86
Views: 5768

Re: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature

You are not missing anything. What you are seeing is people in a hysteria to be "safe" without stopping to think about how things work... retiring on nothing but a volatile portfolio places the retiree between the rock of not having enough and hard place of spending much less than one might have. I...
by Ron Scott
Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature
Replies: 86
Views: 5768

Re: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature

I ran firecalc a couple times years ago and haven't returned. I just saw it as a fancy machine for using past data to predict the future: Under those bygone constraints I was fine, I'd been well entertained and I had no need to see the movie again. For me personally, dying with $0 would be a shame, ...
by Ron Scott
Sun Dec 03, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rebalancing...every 15 years or so
Replies: 2
Views: 497

Rebalancing...every 15 years or so

I've got a relatively low allocation in stock by forum standards (35%) and I'm happy with it. I don't foresee having to touch it except to spend dividends. I was thinking about not rebalancing at all (62, just retired) or maybe buying more stocks if the market really tanks, by 40% or so in the futur...
by Ron Scott
Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review
Replies: 4
Views: 500

Portfolio Review

I’ve been here for a while and got my accounts within a few %s of where I want to start retirement--so time for a portfolio review… I retired in May. During the past year or so I dumped my financial advisor and started down the DIY path. Learned a lot from this forum already and I’m open to all inpu...
by Ron Scott
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Cash
Replies: 14
Views: 1034

Re: 401k Cash

I actually have no idea why he's doing what he's doing and I hope he's explaining it to you. Assuming he's trying to act in your best interests he's hoarding dry powder to use in an imminent market downturn. Many people do it and some have done so successfully but its not easy to pull off real-time ...
by Ron Scott
Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Complete Beginner to investing, 24 years old
Replies: 15
Views: 1390

Re: Complete Beginner to investing, 24 years old

I wish I asked your question when I was 24! Welcome! You're in a good place financially and are thinking about the right issues. Relax and educate yourself. Here's a starter: https://www.amazon.com/Bogleheads-Guide-Investing-Taylor-Larimore-ebook/dp/B00JUV01RW/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1512164587&sr=8-...
by Ron Scott
Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I include cash set aside for home purchase when computing asset allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 721

Re: Should I include cash set aside for home purchase when computing asset allocation

This forum seems to look at assets like a brokerage firm does: If you can't put it in some investment for sale it doesn't count. I disagree. I don't understand why you wouldn't include that cash and the house it buys in your asset allocation. I own several residences and 2 additional rental properti...
by Ron Scott
Thu Nov 30, 2017 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Market Expensive?
Replies: 18
Views: 1527

Re: Is the Market Expensive?

The market IS expensive. There is absolutely nothing wrong, or unBogle-like, with DCAing into a 25-75 portfolio. Expecting low real rates of return over the foreseeable future and spending accordingly is a wise plan you can implement yourself. Putting yourself in a position in which you’d need to se...
by Ron Scott
Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Accumulation calculator ?
Replies: 5
Views: 642

Re: Accumulation calculator ?

Looking to the past as a predictor of the future is a bad habit to get into. And accounting for inflation is almost as hard, especially over the long term. The easiest way to do this is with a conservative real return rate (maybe using Bogle's recent projection for the next 10 years:1.6%). That way ...
by Ron Scott
Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: May you rebalance before the correction and...
Replies: 24
Views: 2695

May you rebalance before the correction and...

...may you stay forever young.

Best for the holidays to all.
by Ron Scott
Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 100% U.S stocks to 30% international?
Replies: 36
Views: 2959

Re: Going from 100% U.S stocks to 30% international?

You have a tiled portfolio, which by definition hopes to beat the market. I’d suggest you work on that first and try to grow with the market . Whether DCA or all-in works better depends on market performance during the affected future time period, which we know nothing about. Pick one and relax. I d...
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 25, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund duration(s) in retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 1330

Re: Bond fund duration(s) in retirement

30% short
40% intermediate
30% longish

Pretty simple.
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Apple people: Office 365 or Apple's stuff?
Replies: 14
Views: 990

Apple people: Office 365 or Apple's stuff?

Got an iMac, Macbook, iPhone and iPad... Use 'em all.

Anyone transition from MS to the Apple alternatives...happily?
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any BLACK FRIDAY deals for Bogleheads?
Replies: 51
Views: 6888

Re: Any BLACK FRIDAY deals for Bogleheads?

Just scored a few Wemo wall sockets and some other holiday goodies on the obvious online store. Fingers itchy... Thanks, I was wanting a couple more of the mini sockets, good price. :sharebeer Plugged my first one into a floor lamp connected to a switched outlet with dual wall switches. Took me hal...
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any BLACK FRIDAY deals for Bogleheads?
Replies: 51
Views: 6888

Re: Any BLACK FRIDAY deals for Bogleheads?

Just scored a few Wemo wall sockets and some other holiday goodies on the obvious online store. Fingers itchy... Thanks, I was wanting a couple more of the mini sockets, good price. :sharebeer Plugged my first one into a floor lamp connected to a switched outlet with dual wall switches. Took me hal...
by Ron Scott
Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any BLACK FRIDAY deals for Bogleheads?
Replies: 51
Views: 6888

Any BLACK FRIDAY deals for Bogleheads?

Just scored a few Wemo wall sockets and some other holiday goodies on the obvious online store. Fingers itchy...

Also saw Vanguard has a sale on new accounts: VTSAX at 0.01%* for 2018!

Anything else of interest?









* just kidding
by Ron Scott
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you your own worse enemy when it comes to investing?
Replies: 34
Views: 2429

Re: Are you your own worse enemy when it comes to investing?

Reading through all the various threads on the market is about to crash, liability matching won't work or a comet will hit the earth the day after you retire so quit now, has made me begin to wonder. Are most of the problems we face as investors real or fabrications we create to justify the way we ...
by Ron Scott
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you your own worse enemy when it comes to investing?
Replies: 34
Views: 2429

Re: Are you your own worse enemy when it comes to investing?

Reading through all the various threads on the market is about to crash, liability matching won't work or a comet will hit the earth the day after you retire so quit now, has made me begin to wonder. Are most of the problems we face as investors real or fabrications we create to justify the way we ...
by Ron Scott
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you your own worse enemy when it comes to investing?
Replies: 34
Views: 2429

Re: Are you your own worse enemy when it comes to investing?

Reading through all the various threads on the market is about to crash, liability matching won't work or a comet will hit the earth the day after you retire so quit now, has made me begin to wonder. Are most of the problems we face as investors real or fabrications we create to justify the way we ...
by Ron Scott
Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you your own worse enemy when it comes to investing?
Replies: 34
Views: 2429

Re: Are you your own worse enemy when it comes to investing?

Reading through all the various threads on the market is about to crash, liability matching won't work or a comet will hit the earth the day after you retire so quit now, has made me begin to wonder. Are most of the problems we face as investors real or fabrications we create to justify the way we ...
by Ron Scott
Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spending Taxable to Zero during Retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 4971

Re: Spending Taxable to Zero during Retirement

61. Retired in May. Got a plan... Goals: tax-efficient location and Roth conversions, take RMDs only from IRA, delay SS to max total gross over 17/18 years, never touch Roth, leave current NW intact. Until 70: 75% of required spend to come from interest/dividends from munis and stock in taxable and ...
by Ron Scott
Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Basics Cheatsheet?
Replies: 9
Views: 1538

Re: Tax Basics Cheatsheet?

As someone who loves cheatsheets, I am distressed to say that I don't think there is one for taxable accounts. The management of these accounts can be fiendishly complicated (should I do tax gain harvesting or do a partial Roth IRA conversion this year?, for example). To the extent that you are hig...
by Ron Scott
Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Got $1 million to retire? Here’s how long it will last, by U.S. state"
Replies: 50
Views: 10334

Re: "Got $1 million to retire? Here’s how long it will last, by U.S. state"

flyingaway wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:51 am
If $1MM is not enough, make it $2MM before retire.
Lifestyles are different.
The median NW of a retiree in this country is about $100,000 so...
by Ron Scott
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Got $1 million to retire? Here’s how long it will last, by U.S. state"
Replies: 50
Views: 10334

Re: "Got $1 million to retire? Here’s how long it will last, by U.S. state"

It might look bad for New Yorkers but if you average in your place in Florida you're fine!
by Ron Scott
Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Certified Financial Planner (CFP) fees
Replies: 18
Views: 1679

Re: Certified Financial Planner (CFP) fees

$10,000 per year plus, often resulting in buyers remorse.

If you can be more specific about your current situation and plans for change many on this board can help you…for free.
by Ron Scott
Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing at the top
Replies: 19
Views: 1438

Re: Investing at the top

Yeah, definitely. If I KNEW a crash would happen in 18 months I'd take my money out in Q318 and hoard cash to buy the big dip.
by Ron Scott
Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: another refinance question (30 or 15 year?)
Replies: 11
Views: 711

Re: another refinance question (30 or 15 year?)

Agree with soccerrules. There are cases in which a longer mortgage is advised but if you're considering a 15 year its likely the best way to go.

I hate mortgages and paid mine off in 9 years or so...a long time ago. So glad.
by Ron Scott
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The negative alpha of the Value Factor
Replies: 8
Views: 1273

Re: The negative alpha of the Value Factor

Wall Street creates, maintains and builds upon an entire language, shorthand if you will, for describing investing strategies. Most disciplines do this so they can communicate with each other in an efficient manner. Some attempt to use it to make the outsider feel like they've got less knowledge in ...
by Ron Scott
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Year end windfall and job loss
Replies: 16
Views: 2425

Re: Year end windfall and job loss

Flexibility and safety-first in times of change and stress. Option 2.
by Ron Scott
Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on my asset allocation?
Replies: 24
Views: 1619

Re: Thoughts on my asset allocation?

Malkiel says it well in "A Random Walk Down Wall Street": "Capitalization-weighted portfolios* are the market. If you believe a subset of securities will give you superior returns, you are counting on some 'dumb' investors to hold portfolios producing poorer returns." I’ve been looking into equal w...
by Ron Scott
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Largest holding in Powell’s (next Fed chairman) investment portfolio appears to be Vanguard Total Stock Market index fu
Replies: 9
Views: 1954

Re: Largest holding in Powell’s (next Fed chairman) investment portfolio appears to be Vanguard Total Stock Market index

I suppose it would depend on how old he was and his life expectancy when he got rich enough to need this planning. If the wealth built slowly over decades he might have taken that course. If he was a regular working stiff, well paid but not rich, then had an equity event that put him far into estat...
by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book for new college graduate
Replies: 19
Views: 1210

Re: Book for new college graduate

If he already read Jack Bogle's book, The Bogleheads Guide would be my next suggestion. I'd pay a million immediately if I could give that book to myself 40 years ago.
by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AI/Machine Learning/Deep Learning in Investing
Replies: 8
Views: 1029

Re: AI/Machine Learning/Deep Learning in Investing

This is an area of active research and development. On one hand, a lot is being discovered and it's gold rush time to go figure things out before everyone else, but that implies the exact opposite of off-the-shelf tools. If you're versed in deep learning and highly technical, maybe you can figure o...
by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA, Roth conversion, and NUA as approaching RMD
Replies: 4
Views: 315

Re: AA, Roth conversion, and NUA as approaching RMD

The company stock (3%) of the old employer's 401(k) plan has appreciated by almost 400% (5x) over the years. Does taking NUA make sense in our situation? I understand that NUA has to be done and the previous employer's 401(k) has to be emptied in lump sum distribution(LSD) before the RMD year. Seem...
by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do any of you maintain your own charitable foundations?
Replies: 5
Views: 773

Do any of you maintain your own charitable foundations?

I'd be interested in learning what activities the trustees engage in to do the work of the foundation...and any related comments you might have.
by Ron Scott
Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review
Replies: 45
Views: 3495

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review

I'll echo most of the comments above. Congrats and good plan... Several thoughts: 1. I too think one bond fund is sufficient, VG's total US bond. I do not understand the need for international bonds at all. VBTLX does the job in its entirety and is the cheapest way to go too. 2. I'm not a fan of in...
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As we gear up for the predictions season, a look back on how they fared for 2017 so far
Replies: 19
Views: 2278

Re: As we gear up for the predictions season, a look back on how they fared for 2017 so far

Here are predictions for the S&P 500, which is trading around 2580 today: 2,300 — Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2,300 — Credit Suisse 2,300 — UBS 2,300 — Goldman 2,325 — Citi 2,325 — Jeffires 2,350 — BMO 2,350 — Deutsche Bank 2,400 — JPMorgan 2,450 — Oppenheimer Ron, when were these predictions mad...
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 28
Views: 2110

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

I take both methods with a healthy dose of many grains of salt. That way, I don't have to spend any of my time thinking about something that I cannot control nor predict anyways. This^ Really accepting what we preach, that past performance is not a good indicator of future results, means treating b...
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Capital gains timing
Replies: 11
Views: 1016

Re: Capital gains timing

Taxes, while important, are not a reason to hold a stock you want to sell, especially one that has performed poorly over the long term in comparison to the overall market. Sell.
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review
Replies: 45
Views: 3495

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review

I'll echo most of the comments above. Congrats and good plan... Several thoughts: 1. I too think one bond fund is sufficient, VG's total US bond. I do not understand the need for international bonds at all. VBTLX does the job in its entirety and is the cheapest way to go too. 2. I'm not a fan of int...
by Ron Scott
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Non-compete clause for employment
Replies: 3
Views: 544

Re: Non-compete clause for employment

Since A is a contractor for B--I'm assuming A provides bodies for B--this is not your noncompete. It's between A and B.

If B does a lot of business with A they will tell A to eat the costs on this one and move on. A will mutter through gritted teeth and agree.

You should be honest with everyone.