Search found 968 matches

by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you take advantage of "volatility" in your investing strategy?
Replies: 5
Views: 281

Do you take advantage of "volatility" in your investing strategy?

I once thought rebalancing was an approach that gave one a leg up in the use of market volatility. Then I was educated that holding without rebalancing actually produced better long-term gains. I do not rebalance now, or at least it is not in my plans to do so. I do consider tax rates to be volatile...
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you use any economic "theory" in your approach to investing?
Replies: 12
Views: 678

Re: Do you use any economic "theory" in your approach to investing?

I believe it's called Capitalism . LOL, yes I am a capitalist. I never actually thought of it as much a theory as an ideological system. A horrible system actually; only better than the others. Efficient Market Hypothesis is the strongest case for indexing. I actually argued fairly strongly in favo...
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing mortgage pay down
Replies: 47
Views: 3374

Re: Timing mortgage pay down

It is very simple. Mortgage interest rate = X. Market return = Y. If Y > X, investing win. If X > Y, pay extra win. It has nothing to do with timing. On the other hand... Mortgage Interest Rate = X GUARANTEED Market return = Y YESTERDAY. TOMORROW? WHO KNOWS? If Y > X LONG ENOUGH investing win If X ...
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you use any economic "theory" in your approach to investing?
Replies: 12
Views: 678

Do you use any economic "theory" in your approach to investing?

I don't think I do. I trust the US economy more than "the world" or individual entities, so I'm kind of a 2-fund investor. The general BH approach with indexing makes sense, as does low-cost, but that's not really theoretical; more of an indictment of actively-managed schemes over their lifespans. M...
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Set it and forget it
Replies: 39
Views: 5835

Re: Set it and forget it

StacktheBricksRic wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:58 pm

The only thing that gets blurry, for some like myself, is shaving that foam when that beer pitcher gets full and allocating into the foam fund (Total Bond Fund).

:sharebeer
A tip:

If you truly set-and-forget, i,e, you never shave the foam, you are rewarded; the foam turns to beer!
by Ron Scott
Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Stocks Enough to Diversify Idiosyncratic Risk?
Replies: 26
Views: 1627

Re: 50 Stocks Enough to Diversify Idiosyncratic Risk?

nisiprius wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:06 pm
I don't know who's right. But, as long as I own the Total Stock Market Index Fund, I don't need to know who's right.
This about nails it...

Given the TSM funds out there, there is no need to approximate the market's return for the purpose of diversification. Unless you're Rube Goldberg.
by Ron Scott
Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"
Replies: 48
Views: 4583

Re: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"

Now to some extent shortages of employees are a made up problem. Raise wages and those shortgages tend to disappear quickly. For the past 15 years or so I had a very difficult time filling advanced- and management-level statistician positions. We hired english-speaking immigrants and attracted peop...
by Ron Scott
Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: is it better to switch houses in a market downturn?
Replies: 4
Views: 854

Re: is it better to switch houses in a market downturn?

Transaction costs on a primary residential property are COL expenses to me so, all things being equal, I'd rather trade up in value during a market downturn and downsize in a price surge.
by Ron Scott
Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces link: The Spectrum of Financial Dependence and Independence
Replies: 20
Views: 1734

Re: Kitces link: The Spectrum of Financial Dependence and Independence

An alternative to Levels 14 and 15:

You spend a relatively low % of assets for living expenses, you can live with relatively low returns, and you will not need to sell equities at a low to fund living expenses. You are robust and either live consistently within Level 16 or float in and out of it.
by Ron Scott
Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The End of Indexing?
Replies: 33
Views: 4062

Re: The End of Indexing?

Imdexing is problematic but the foolish fearbook referenced doesn’t address any of the problems. An interesting one for those who think about the growing trend toward index investing: http://theconversation.com/these-three-firms-own-corporate-america-77072 Combined, Vanguard, Blackrock, and State St...
by Ron Scott
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice for beginner...
Replies: 5
Views: 632

Re: Portfolio Advice for beginner...

I would suggest reconsidering your AA as you prepare for the second half and increase exposure to bonds. Your age in bonds by the time you retire if not a bit earlier. You can start to move in this direction by investing in CA munis if you need room for bonds in taxable. I think VGs CA munis are rel...
by Ron Scott
Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What if your risk tolerance is lower than what's best for your portfolio?
Replies: 51
Views: 3693

Re: What if your risk tolerance is lower than what's best for your portfolio?

I disagree with the common wisdom here. Two comments: 1. Maintain a minimum of 25% in equities. At about 40% you’re fine and should consider doing nothing. 2. Forget the psychological gibberish concocted by financial advisors and economists, that individuals have some kind of natural “risk tolerance...
by Ron Scott
Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is dividend yield a part of expected future returns
Replies: 15
Views: 1088

Re: Why is dividend yield a part of expected future returns

Add estimated company profit growth to current market dividend yield to get estimated return. Yes, over the long term this is all you get. Historically, the average earnings of the S&P500 has been between 5-6% with dividends ranging between 2-3%. Add those two together and that is what you got for ...
by Ron Scott
Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...what’s Plan B [for your retirement security]?
Replies: 20
Views: 2230

So...what’s Plan B [for your retirement security]?

The following post by pivoprussia, from another thread, stuck with me: These are my favorite threads. We all want to know IF we should be ok in our decisions. I have seen lots of comments about "flexibility" and the notion people will not blindly just follow the 4% rule from the Trinity Study. I hav...
by Ron Scott
Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you retire because you hit your number?
Replies: 71
Views: 6359

Re: Did you retire because you hit your number?

You are rich only if the money you refuse tastes better than the money you accept.

—Taleb
by Ron Scott
Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why dismiss sectors?
Replies: 31
Views: 1627

Re: Why dismiss sectors?

I think most here avoid investing in sectors vs. TSM because they believe their net return will be higher with TSM.
by Ron Scott
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you retire because you hit your number?
Replies: 71
Views: 6359

Re: Did you retire because you hit your number?

I had hit "my number" several years before I retired. I was planning on working 1 more year until retirement, then the company came out with an early retirement package, with a bonus of 1.5X times annual salary. I think I was the first one to sign up immediately :D After 2 years now in retirement, ...
by Ron Scott
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spoke with a CFP...underwhelming!
Replies: 51
Views: 5061

Re: Spoke with a CFP...underwhelming!

I am interested in working with an extremely wealthy financial advisor who has invested according to his own advice for many years and can provide me adequate documentation he has done so. You might want to read the classic book "Where are the Customers Yachts?" before you hire a wealthy financial ...
by Ron Scott
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spoke with a CFP...underwhelming!
Replies: 51
Views: 5061

Re: Spoke with a CFP...underwhelming!

unstoppable wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:59 am

We both agreed on the SWR of 4% and most of the common mentions there...
This advice deserves to be treated with the same gravity as his advice on investing.
by Ron Scott
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spoke with a CFP...underwhelming!
Replies: 51
Views: 5061

Re: Spoke with a CFP...underwhelming!

I am interested in working with an extremely wealthy financial advisor who has invested according to his own advice for many years and can provide me adequate documentation he has done so.
by Ron Scott
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Chase Private Client -- Worth it to hold Vanguard Funds?
Replies: 33
Views: 12936

Re: Chase Private Client -- Worth it to hold Vanguard Funds?

freebeer wrote:
Wed May 10, 2017 11:20 pm

But Chase will hard sell you on letting them actively manage your money. I had to steadfastly resist multiple sales pitches. And I'm sure there will be more. :moneybag
They have my cell number only and I just send them to VM. 2-3 times a year max and I never have a conversation.
by Ron Scott
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"
Replies: 48
Views: 4583

Re: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"

Now to some extent shortages of employees are a made up problem. Raise wages and those shortgages tend to disappear quickly. For the past 15 years or so I had a very difficult time filling advanced- and management-level statistician positions. We hired english-speaking immigrants and attracted peop...
by Ron Scott
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"
Replies: 48
Views: 4583

Re: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"

Now to some extent shortages of employees are a made up problem. Raise wages and those shortgages tend to disappear quickly. For the past 15 years or so I had a very difficult time filling advanced- and management-level statistician positions. We hired english-speaking immigrants and attracted peop...
by Ron Scott
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Stock Concentration: Google Sheets beta
Replies: 5
Views: 622

Re: Single Stock Concentration: Google Sheets beta

One issue that comes up from time concerns single stock concentration: how much of a single stock is "safe" to keep in a portfolio. If you don't need the money any stock will do. If you NEED the money they all increase your risk to some extent and volatility is probably a good measure to consider. ...
by Ron Scott
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: flat for the year
Replies: 27
Views: 2487

Re: flat for the year

double
by Ron Scott
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: flat for the year
Replies: 27
Views: 2487

Re: flat for the year

The economy is indeed great, which doesn't mean individual returns are great for the year. PEs are lofty...
by Ron Scott
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"
Replies: 48
Views: 4583

Re: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"

Now to some extent shortages of employees are a made up problem. Raise wages and those shortgages tend to disappear quickly. For the past 15 years or so I had a very difficult time filling advanced- and management-level statistician positions. We hired english-speaking immigrants and attracted peop...
by Ron Scott
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Apple [AAPL] Stock
Replies: 51
Views: 4803

Re: Too Much APPL Stock

APPL comprises about 3.8% of the S&P500, so your not in bad company...
by Ron Scott
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you retire because you hit your number?
Replies: 71
Views: 6359

Re: Did you retire because you hit your number?

Strange thing is that, while I really liked my work and found it very rewarding I do not miss it. I miss some of the people but not the job per se. Now it’s just my past career than I’m proud of. I moved on right away.

I did not expect to feel this way.
by Ron Scott
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you consider 'enough'?
Replies: 93
Views: 10114

Re: What do you consider 'enough'?

You can never be too rich or too thin.
by Ron Scott
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you retire because you hit your number?
Replies: 71
Views: 6359

Did you retire because you hit your number?

I retired for reasons having nothing to do with money. I went at 61 because a reorganization would have left me with a larger job I could not commit to or get excited about. I could have retired, from a financial perspective, in my early 50s, but then I would have missed my most significant achievem...
by Ron Scott
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing During Retirement
Replies: 20
Views: 2671

Re: Investing During Retirement

I prefer the advice of Jack Bogle and suggest a 2 fund portfolio. Total US stock market and Total US bond market. No international needed.

I also suggest you keep your age in bonds, i.e., 2/3rds of your portfolio in bonds. If you’re portfolio is sizable and you are risk tolerant, drop 60% to bonds.
by Ron Scott
Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10734

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

America's success, which translates to investor success, owes in large measure to the way we treat failure (if you get up and try again all is good) and risk (nothing ventured, nothing gained).

It's hard to beat the attitude.
by Ron Scott
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 224
Views: 17945

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I have seen lots of comments about "flexibility" and the notion people will not blindly just follow the 4% rule from the Trinity Study. I have not seen anyone mention the articles specifically addressing the myths of flexibility addressed in the Early Retirement Now series. Certainly people will cu...
by Ron Scott
Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Completing My Portfolio Re-balance - Feedback?
Replies: 6
Views: 513

Re: Completing My Portfolio Re-balance - Feedback?

I believe the wiki shows a straightforward approach for using large, mid, and small-cap funds to emulate total market
by Ron Scott
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Completing My Portfolio Re-balance - Feedback?
Replies: 6
Views: 513

Re: Completing My Portfolio Re-balance - Feedback?

I have three thoughts for you: 1. The concept of rebalancing you describe is not what people on this forum mean when they use the term, so be careful of misinterpreting. People here are transferring smaller percentages of their investable assets between stocks and bonds to maintain an overall asset ...
by Ron Scott
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 224
Views: 17945

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

You spend frugally in retirement like it's worst past case 1966 whether it is or not. Might die with $10M real portfolio starting with $1M - Woo-hoo Misers dream! But your analysis falls into the same trap that many of the doomsday 2 percenters go down. No reasonably astute person is going to sit b...
by Ron Scott
Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 224
Views: 17945

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

Does firecalc come with a time machine? :D All these successes are based on past data. Stocks have a wide range of returns which over time gets wider, The wide range of returns is taken into account. No one can predict the future, but virtually every single person on this board is using something h...
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Completing My Portfolio Re-balance - Feedback?
Replies: 6
Views: 513

Re: Portfolio Re-balance Feedback

I’m confused. Didn’t you pull all of your money out of investments in March and go to cash so you could , as you say, re-balance?

Did you reinvest most of it then and now want to do it again?
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: favorite bogleheads posts?
Replies: 113
Views: 24529

Re: favorite bogleheads posts?

LadyGeek wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:36 pm
^^^ I moved your post into the on-going discussion.
Outstanding!

And another great one...
hq38sq43 wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:38 pm
Warren Buffett on active stock trading:
Calling someone who trades actively in the stock market an investor is like calling someone who engages repeatedly in one-night stands a romantic.
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 224
Views: 17945

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

These conversations revolve around risk and how willing you are to accept some risk. If you have a very low risk tolerance, shoot for a withdrawal rate of 3% or less and invest more heavily in bonds. If you feel your tolerance for risk is higher, start with a withdrawal rate of 4% or higher and a h...
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Jack Bogle Expects From the Market
Replies: 11
Views: 2173

Re: JoMoney is TOO optimistic :)

... So people who disagree with his projections are free to do the math: Dividend yield + Earnings growth + Speculative return. And if you think he's too low you should really step up and tell us where you think the growth is coming from in this formula... Despite the tumult, growth on tangible equ...
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kids and Money
Replies: 38
Views: 1768

Re: Kids and Money

It is well known now through research and common sense that the children of the rich will do far better in life than the rest. Without actually giving them cash or a house or something, you will be spending money in ways that are meant to ensure their relatively higher standard of living in adulthoo...
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Jack Bogle Expects From the Market
Replies: 11
Views: 2173

Re: What Jack Bogle Expects From the Market

Bogle: It hasn't changed from what we talked about last year very much. But there's a reality to the stock market--let's take that first. The reality is that the fundamental return, the dividend yield plus the earnings growth of companies, drives the long term return of the stock market. The only t...
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CA vs NY: TAXES / BENEFITS
Replies: 11
Views: 718

Re: CA vs NY: TAXES / BENEFITS

And if you're thinking about the city:

NYC Income Tax Brackets
Married, Filing Separately
New York Taxable Income Rate
$25,000 - $50,000 3.591%
$50,000 - $500,000 3.648%
$500,000+ 3.876%
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?
Replies: 12
Views: 1082

Re: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?

I thought the world wars were net positives for the US markets in the 20th century.
by Ron Scott
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income
Replies: 56
Views: 8678

Re: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income

My thoughts: 1. Youre not even at the halftime break. You’re too young to know what you’ll want your lifestyle to be for the rest of your life. Assume it will evolve to cost more than you anticipate today. 2. 90-10 is aggressive by definition and for the reasons others stated above. At least 25% in ...
by Ron Scott
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?
Replies: 12
Views: 1082

What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?

Those who ask “what have we learned from the past?” have similar interests as those who believe future impactful occurrences have precedents in the past that are worth analyzing. Others argue that some of the major impactful events in the past were unprecedented and could not be considered probable ...
by Ron Scott
Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muscular Portfolios Questions
Replies: 9
Views: 1058

Re: Muscular Portfolios Questions

Brian Livingston suggests that one should select a "specific day" each month to "tune up" one's portfolio. On that day, one should immediately buy any top-three ETFs that one does not hold. Now my question: If in any one month the market begins to "plummet," should one not wait for the "specific da...