Search found 200 matches

by Swelfie
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 240
Views: 19469

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

I am disappointed that most of the threads and discussions on this forum relate primarily to those investors in the accumulation phase. Comments center more on the 60/40 or 100/0 allocations and everything in between. Retirees with less that 40% equity holdings get short shrift and usually are ment...
by Swelfie
Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 240
Views: 19469

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

I agree with the concern about valuation and expected future returns of both stocks and bonds. I don't buy that the alternative investments he is advocating will do any better to be worth the high expense ratios. +1. Also, I do not have any idea what those alternatives are. I never invest in anythi...
by Swelfie
Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Lockheed Martin about to become the biggest company in history?
Replies: 66
Views: 8314

Re: Is Lockheed Martin about to become the biggest company in history?

A former colleague got a patent on faster-than-light communication. I expressed some skepticism, saying that there were well-accepted arguments against it based on violation of causality. He replied, "They don't give patents for nothing, my friend." I did not have a good answer for that. I couldn't...
by Swelfie
Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Time Series Momentum (aka Trend Following): A Good Time For A Refresh
Replies: 31
Views: 4145

Re: Larry Swedroe: Time Series Momentum (aka Trend Following): A Good Time For A Refresh

It seems fairly clear that he is identifying this strategy with the phrase "managed futures," since he writes Strategies that attempt to capture the return premium offered by time-series momentum are often called, “managed futures,” as they take long and short positions in assets via futures market...
by Swelfie
Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient frontier and negative premiums.
Replies: 4
Views: 701

Re: Efficient frontier and negative premiums.

In theory you could even enhance this with tax alpha. Take the value factor for instance. Let's assume you could easily and cheaply take short positions in some high growth stocks and not have redundant buys in your otherwise total market portfolio giving you an efficient value tilt. At some level t...
by Swelfie
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Small-cap Value Funds ??
Replies: 55
Views: 9277

Re: International Small-cap Value Funds ??

There is also TLTD/TLTE which is flexshares' small cap value for developed and emerging markets respectively. About 1 billion in assets for developed, 600 MM for emerging. Expense ratio is pretty reasonable for what it is.
by Swelfie
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!
Replies: 27
Views: 6027

Re: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!

As someone who levers their bonds in a risk parity portfolio, bonds have been brutal since September. I'm taking a serious beating at the 2 year point on the yield curve. Happily, equities are being nice and cushioning the blow. I had to look up "levered bonds in risk parity portfolio". Interesting...
by Swelfie
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!
Replies: 27
Views: 6027

Re: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!

You could say we have experienced a mini crash in bonds. Well, more like a tiny crash; make that a minuscule crash. Anyway, I'm buying more bonds simply because I'm getting older and gliding towards a higher bond portfolio, so a crash is a good thing just like when stock crashes are good for young ...
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 30979

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Most other systems, like banks, are vulnerable because they have not migrated to quantum resistant crypto. However, they are smaller targets because there is a central authority. If I break into your bank and transfer a million dollars to my bank, as soon as it's noticed your and my bank will rever...
by Swelfie
Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 5498

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

People are saying bitcoin is or is not a Ponzi scheme without saying what a Ponzi scheme is. I find it particularly awful to say it doesn't have a characteristic of a Ponzi scheme without describing said characteristic. One definition of a Ponzi scheme is: A Ponzi scheme (/ˈpɒn.zi/; also a Ponzi ga...
by Swelfie
Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin
Replies: 74
Views: 7949

Re: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin

People will still buy pizza with it. They will swipe their Visa card for the pizza, Visa will pay the pizza company and reconcile accounts on the blockchain. This transaction will have fewer middlemen therefore the pizza will be cheaper than it would have been had a cryptocurreny not been used so t...
by Swelfie
Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Bond Experiment: Return to VBTLX (Vanguard Total Bond Market)"
Replies: 34
Views: 6729

Re: "The Bond Experiment: Return to VBTLX (Vanguard Total Bond Market)"

My curiosity isn't with the choice of the corporate fund. I think that's fine. I'm just wondering why one would hold Total Bond plus VFIDX rather than a pure Treasury fund or government bond index fund plus VFIDX. In doing so you remove agency bonds from your portfolio which are a component of VBTL...
by Swelfie
Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin
Replies: 74
Views: 7949

Re: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin

And yes, not much substantial has yet come to pass except efficient, cheap and secure transaction systems (of which Bitcoin is not one) One problem is that if/when Bitcoin crashes, and millions are lost, it's going to ruin adoption of the other better designed cryto-currencies by the casual user wh...
by Swelfie
Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin
Replies: 74
Views: 7949

Re: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin

1. Is there something in the current wave technologically that makes all of these application possible, or is it people are more focused on this area. I'm thinking of BitTorrent, Tor, P2P lending, etc. which if invented in this period would surely also be marketed/packaged as "blockchain" technolog...
by Swelfie
Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin
Replies: 74
Views: 7949

Re: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin

I have held Bitcoin (and others) for years. I saw a lot of potential in the technology and predicted it would be the catalyst for some huge positive changes in the way things worked in multiple areas. That is coming to pass and I am being rewarded. "Catalyst for ... positive changes in the way thin...
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin
Replies: 74
Views: 7949

Re: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin

I would ask your friends if they know how they convert their Bitcoin back into USD, how much that costs them, and how long it takes? Then ask them how long they think that transaction will take during a panic sell which will almost certainly occur at some point. Adam Beck, CEO of Blockstream, the c...
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin
Replies: 74
Views: 7949

Re: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin

It's odd to have a banner year for stocks and still see people pile into riskier investments. Stocks are up about 23% in this banner year. Crypto is up about 10,000% in this banner year for them. I can see why people want to pile in to the crypto. They see the reward and underestimate the risk. If ...
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin
Replies: 74
Views: 7949

Re: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin

Isn't there a need to define block-chain and bitcoin. Block chain is the technology behind it, which seems to have a promising future. Bit coin is way more uncertain. I think when looking at it, it's important to separate the technology from the currency you are trading. Pedantically yes. To the la...
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin
Replies: 74
Views: 7949

Re: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin

I have held Bitcoin (and others) for years. I saw a lot of potential in the technology and predicted it would be the catalyst for some huge positive changes in the way things worked in multiple areas. That is coming to pass and I am being rewarded. Where do we go from here? I got in when the market ...
by Swelfie
Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 20593

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Calling 100k
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it look like a bubble to you?
Replies: 42
Views: 4271

Re: Does it look like a bubble to you?

Going from the graph you have about 30T in 2004 to 80T end of 2017. That looks like notional CAGR of about 7.3% That's a bit on the low side for historical market returns, but it's not all that bad. Seems downright historically mundane actually.
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 214
Views: 29672

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

call ourselves smarter because we just buy everything and hop it goes up. Actually, I would see this statement as the crux of the Boglehead investment philosophy: 1) The market trends upwards. 2) Many smart people spend a lot of money in fees trying to out smart each other in the zero sum game of t...
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 214
Views: 29672

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

For anyone who is curious about what bitcoin is, I found this video by Andreas pretty easy to understand: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1si5ZWLgy0&list=PLPQwGV1aLnTuN6kdNWlElfr2tzigB9Nnj The problem with all the people who try to explain Bitcoins, is that they use analogy too much: "Think of blo...
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto-Currency
Replies: 29
Views: 3285

Re: Crypto-Currency

Still lots of money to be made but be careful and don't invest in some random ICO. In my opinion, look for a solid team with a good track record with Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc. and invest in some of their new projects. If one blockchain gets ahead on scaling, the market will likely reward them handsom...
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak
Replies: 15
Views: 2729

Re: I'm declaring a bubble, it's at the peak

Can you at least tell us what asset the bubble is in? I too, plan to do nothing, but I want to be sure I know what to do nothing about. I would hate to do nothing and discover that it was wasted effort because I was steadfastly staying the course in something that wasn't in a bubble. I'm trying to ...
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Market Risk By Short Selling Index ETF Or Selling Index Futures?
Replies: 27
Views: 2470

Re: Hedge Market Risk By Short Selling Index ETF Or Selling Index Futures?

I implied upthread, that if you own an index ETF, and then effectively short the same index using futures or options, that you wouldn't be violating the shorting against the box rule. Swelfie, who knows much more about this than me, implied that I'm wrong. I strongly suspect that I am. From my prev...
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate from SPIA???
Replies: 41
Views: 3077

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate from SPIA???

When you write " How does one go about evaluating what the real cash flow to be expected from that pension/life annuity really might be. " wouldn't that be the monthly/annual payments times the average life expectancy? No, because mortality isn't a normal distribution. To get this number you need a...
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24790

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Pedantically, the schism was about whether the ledger should be allowed to grow at 52GB per year, or AS NEEDED up to a cap of 416GB/year. That's an important distinction because currently the chain does not grow by 416GB/yr under any scenario except inventivization of valueless transactions which n...
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24790

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

A global ledger is not scalable. What is the theoretical basis for any claim that there cannot be any possible design for a scalable global ledger? A single global ledger that keeps track of all transactions for all time will grow linearly with the number of transactions and will grow unbounded as ...
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 6153

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

LS talks about illicit activity supported by bitcoin. Obviously there is some. I've started to wonder whether bitcoin is actually useful for illegal activity. Sure you can trade it between thieves, but how do you actually launder significant amounts? It's not like you can convert your bitcoins at t...
by Swelfie
Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Market Risk By Short Selling Index ETF Or Selling Index Futures?
Replies: 27
Views: 2470

Re: Hedge Market Risk By Short Selling Index ETF Or Selling Index Futures?

In a tax advantaged account, sell a deep in the money covered call. Since it's covered it's fine in an IRA. This essentially takes you out of the market since every dollar lost in the call when you buy it back is covered by a gain in the stock. Plus you pocket the time value of the option so you are...
by Swelfie
Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 919
Views: 211299

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Having been running a similar risk-parity portfolio for over a year now, one thing I was a bit caught off guard by was that, as Rob had discussed earlier in this thread, rising interest rates aren't really all that troublesome to the short term bonds. But what I am seeing in this current market is t...
by Swelfie
Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman
Replies: 30
Views: 3734

Re: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman

How do we know this is true? Would practical quantum computation change your answer? Because we know how much energy it takes to perform computations, and we know that it's more likely that the sun will burn out before a single bitcoin private key is ever found. But quantum computers? Okay, you got...
by Swelfie
Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 214
Views: 29672

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Bitcoin is a ledger that contains a record of all transactions since its inception. Victoria Which makes it a little puzzling why hackers would demand payment for ransomeware in bitcoins. It's kind of like bank robbers stealing a bunch of marked bills. A hacker can create several IDs and sell bitco...
by Swelfie
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 6472

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

3) Correct - bitcoins are divisible to a hundred-millionth of a bitcoin. One hundred-millionth of a bitcoin is called a "satoshi". A typical transaction fee is something like 40,000 satoshi (~$4), so while you could spend a satoshi it would be rather inefficient. An interesting issue is the amount ...
by Swelfie
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 30979

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

I don't think anybody "investing" in Bitcoin is looking at it as a lifelong asset to bequeath to heirs. They are looking to get rich before the bubble pops. Even if this is true, the problem persists. Perhaps the person that purchased the bitcoins dies unexpectedly; if they didn't leave explicit in...
by Swelfie
Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 30979

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Mycelium creates a brand new bitcoin address every time you receive bitcoin. Who knew that? That's actually becoming pretty necessary. The large world governments have acquired large quantum computers, and in fact it's rumored that even Volkswagon now has one. A quantum computer can learn your priv...
by Swelfie
Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 30979

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a casino right now. The house is pumping up the price to suck in new players. Once they run out of players, they will cash out, which will trigger a stampede for the door. The feeding frenzy is like what happens with the Powerball Lottery. The higher the jackpot, the more casual players ...
by Swelfie
Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 30979

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

It *is* still possible that an altcoin overtakes Bitcoin at some point as well. That's been FUD'd into media profit so many times so far though and hasn't even come close to happening yet, despite performance advantages of Litecoin and others in the short-term. But that's not the only way that impr...
by Swelfie
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 30979

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

So can we agree that, based on news accounts and on greyfox's experience, that, as of November 2017, 1) bitcoin is not a practical medium for ordinary consumers to use in everyday transactions with most well-known national retailers? bitcoin transactions are still a novelty and a hobby for early ad...
by Swelfie
Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 30979

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Technology solving a problem that doesn't exist. I really enjoy using Samsung Pay and good cash back credit card. Bitcoin is really a joke. It solves plenty of problems. It sounds like they're just not yours right now. * Making it difficult for your government to track you (illegal activities, dodg...
by Swelfie
Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 2970

Re: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-right-way-to-rebalance-your-portfolio-2014-02-18 "The results are reasonably intuitive. They support the suspicion that paying too much attention to the market, by rebalancing every month, is almost as bad as paying too little." Why? Because, according to the a...
by Swelfie
Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF
Replies: 32
Views: 4523

Re: Gold ETF

If you don't have a foreign passport and foreign assets, I would treat a plan to relocate abroad as an exercise with a low probability of success with great risk. And the greater the crisis the lower the probability of it working out. Oh yeah. When your backup plan hits the point of "maybe there's ...
by Swelfie
Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF
Replies: 32
Views: 4523

Re: Gold ETF

I have it in coin so there is a perpetual put option. Why a perpetual put option? If a coin is issued from a country as legal tender and still honored then it can be used as cash at it's face value regardless of what metal prices do. So, a 40% silver Kennedy half dollar is about $2.50 in silver wit...
by Swelfie
Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF
Replies: 32
Views: 4523

Re: Gold ETF

If you are hedging from a societal collapse, why don't you buy actual gold coins and bullion? I've seen some online stores such as APMEX and JMBullion that sell gold coin for about 3% over spot price. It's not that expensive vs a 0.4% ER per year. And you get to keep these physical coins in a safe ...
by Swelfie
Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which bogleheads have a "high need to take risk"?
Replies: 51
Views: 5881

Re: Which bogleheads have a "high need to take risk"?

I'm in my mid 40's. I have a high income but 2 divorces under my belt left me with pretty anemic investments. I am sacking it away extremely aggressively. My specialty is in demand and I can work a few extra years if I need to. So I see myself as high need to take risk to get to where I feel I shoul...
by Swelfie
Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 6069

Re: Research Associates Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

I do cut back on domestic and increase international when PE10 is high for one and low for the other as it is now. I'd never carry a majority of international though. Too much currency risk. I want to hold the majority of my currency in that which I intend to spend.
by Swelfie
Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "My Favorite Mutual Fund"
Replies: 14
Views: 2571

Re: "My Favorite Mutual Fund"

If I could go with one it would be a vanguard target retirement fund. Is that cheating?
by Swelfie
Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 8890

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

Bitcoin is pre-adoption. Gold was adopted thousands of years ago. Maybe one day it will become like gold and it does fundamentally share some critical characteristics but right now they are completely different investments.
by Swelfie
Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 4370

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

One theoretical source of return though is this (I had forgotten about it). There is a hard limit of 21 Million coins. There are 2 deflationary pressures: Bitcoin market growth and loss of currency (lost keys). This means that if the markets that utilize it continue to grow (which they normally sho...