Search found 336 matches

by l1am
Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter Schiff - a perspective
Replies: 21
Views: 1461

Re: Peter Schiff - a perspective

The guy has an incentive to shill gold, keep that in mind: https://schiffgold.com/
by l1am
Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 26605

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

That said, I think that it's insane for anyone to to decide on day 1 of retirement how much they will withdraw every year, adjusted for inflation, for the next 30 years from their portfolio of stocks, bonds, etc. There is just too much uncertainty, probably on the upside, to do anything like that. ...
by l1am
Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?
Replies: 182
Views: 11259

Re: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?

I imagine it was pretty similar to the crypto space in 2017. All of these coin whitepapers were being published, promising to revolutionize [x] industry, and all fully funded via ICOs.
by l1am
Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best alternative for VTSAX
Replies: 24
Views: 1733

Re: Best alternative for VTSAX

Why would you TLH from VTSAX (US equities) to VTIAX (international equities)? Instead of something like VFIAX or the large cap fund? I’d just ensure you maintain your desired US equities allocation across all your accounts. For simplicity, I have 3 funds in my taxable and would rather keep it like ...
by l1am
Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best alternative for VTSAX
Replies: 24
Views: 1733

Re: Best alternative for VTSAX

Also, probably important to point out, in the interest of simplicity I will just TLH in my taxable between VTSAX and VTIAX. Even though they aren't identical/replacements, I doubt it'll make any real difference longer term. Define "longer term" and whether you are willing to wait for international ...
by l1am
Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best alternative for VTSAX
Replies: 24
Views: 1733

Re: Best alternative for VTSAX

I hold VTSAX in both my Roth IRA and taxable, and want to be able to TLH. Which should I switch my Roth to: VLCAX or VFIAX? Also if I sell my VTSAX within the Roth, that will not trigger the wash sale rule, correct? Are you asking to be able to do a future TLH, or do you have some losses right now ...
by l1am
Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best alternative for VTSAX
Replies: 24
Views: 1733

Best alternative for VTSAX

I hold VTSAX in both my Roth IRA and taxable, and want to be able to TLH.

Which should I switch my Roth to: VLCAX or VFIAX?

Also if I sell my VTSAX within the Roth, that will not trigger the wash sale rule, correct?
by l1am
Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1659
Views: 419682

Re: Share your networth progression

So, I believe there is a strong correlation between measuring a metric and improving that metric, especially net worth. I am not surprised that people here track it and share about it freely. It's part of the gig. I also believe the point would be to encourage others to track this as it is one of t...
by l1am
Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19202

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

I don’t consider my 20% international exposure a “hedge” against US. I consider it extended diversification beyond US, just like VTI is more broadly diversified than VOO, then VGT, then MSFT etc. Areas or sectors of my haystack will by definition underperform other areas. Why not dump VTI for VGT, g...
by l1am
Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng
Replies: 112
Views: 12936

Re: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng

The lesson for me is more like - the market always comes back over time, so stick with the AA that's right for you. It can be 100/0, 0/100 or somewhere in between. I think that's the wrong lesson - certainly the market may not come back in your lifetime. What is the right outcome to prepare for psy...
by l1am
Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do I find spec ID history for sold lots?
Replies: 8
Views: 485

Re: How do I find spec ID history for sold lots?

VG screwed up. I sold a few more lots yesterday at a loss, then got a call today informing me that those lots weren't actually available to sell. The web interface allowed me to sell them, but apparently the system had not yet "processed" the sale from the day before. So I had to specify different l...
by l1am
Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest 6,000 in a 3 fund portfolio when admiral shares have a minimal balance of 3,000?
Replies: 27
Views: 2210

Re: How to invest 6,000 in a 3 fund portfolio when admiral shares have a minimal balance of 3,000?

You’re overthinking this. Just go 1 or 2 funds for now and then contribute to meet your target AA.

In the long term it’ll make no meaningful difference.
by l1am
Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do I find spec ID history for sold lots?
Replies: 8
Views: 485

Re: How do I find spec ID history for sold lots?

Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:46 am
My Accounts
Cost Basis
Select applicable account
Default tab is for Unrealized Gains & Losses
Select tab for REALIZED Gains & Losses
May not show up until trades are settled
It did show up here eventually, thanks.
by l1am
Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do I find spec ID history for sold lots?
Replies: 8
Views: 485

Re: How do I find spec ID history for sold lots?

I must be in a purgatory because nothing shows up under realized gains/losses tab.

It's very strange to me that these lots are just completely missing from my transaction history. Why is VG altering history...
by l1am
Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do I find spec ID history for sold lots?
Replies: 8
Views: 485

How do I find spec ID history for sold lots?

On Vanguard, I sold some VTIAX yesterday to TLH, I want to go back and double-check the cost basis to ensure I captured a loss (since the price went up yesterday). I've looked all over my transaction history and it seems those lots are just erased from history everywhere? Even in the generated state...
by l1am
Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 59
Views: 3389

Re: Tax loss harvesting

So here's the current plan: 1. Redirect dividends (automatic reinvestment) from VTSAX and VTIAX to VWIUX. 2. On some regular cadence, check VTSAX and VTIAX for opportunity to sell losses. 3. Make contributions as usual (after 30 days pass if necessary) to fix AA. I can see why having replacement in...
by l1am
Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1659
Views: 419682

Re: Share your net worth progression

Just started to track this in 2006. 2006: $270,191 2007: $290,721 2008: $279,900 2009: $372,471 2010: $462,573 2011: $526,462 2012: $630,821 2013: $759,504 2014: $1,018,000 2015: $1,104,137 2016: $1,281,376 2017: $1,576,776 2018: $1,606,116 2019: $2,456,255 2020: $2,595,176 Pulling the plug and ret...
by l1am
Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does VTIAX actually hold stocks?
Replies: 13
Views: 1473

Re: Does VTIAX actually hold stocks?

So if there are some large companies in VTIAX which I do not wish to support in any way, should I dump VTIAX?
by l1am
Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 1.2 Million Not Enough
Replies: 17
Views: 4408

Re: 1.2 Million Not Enough

My back of the napkin number is $5 million before I will voluntarily stop working. 4% withdrawal rate yields $200k. So 2x safety margin for a $100k lifestyle (ignoring taxes). Or, using the 10-year treasury yield ~0.6% as the risk-free rate, $30,000 yield. About 2x federal poverty level. 2x safety ...
by l1am
Sat Jun 27, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1659
Views: 419682

Re: Share your net worth progression

44 now, two kids, same wife. Still live in HCOL, same house, one different car. Same job, but got promoted once. Even with the Covid-19 pandemic, thankfully my investment is still doing exceptionally well since late 2019. Portfolio has grown significantly. I am very happy about that. Hope the trend...
by l1am
Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New wiki videos explain Bogleheads investment philosophy
Replies: 10
Views: 881

Re: New wiki videos explain Bogleheads investment philosophy

Looks good aside from the mantra of keeping bonds in tax advantaged.
by l1am
Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do I calculate % of allocations across different accounts?
Replies: 36
Views: 1942

Re: How do I calculate % of allocations across different accounts?

I use Personal Capital, although wary of privacy risk.
by l1am
Sun Jun 14, 2020 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 59
Views: 3389

Re: Tax loss harvesting

So here's the current plan: 1. Redirect dividends (automatic reinvestment) from VTSAX and VTIAX to VWIUX. 2. On some regular cadence, check VTSAX and VTIAX for opportunity to sell losses. 3. Make contributions as usual (after 30 days pass if necessary) to fix AA. I can see why having replacement ind...
by l1am
Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 108049

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

It was a Fun RIDE!!! gotta gamble a little sometimes.. I'm up a few percent from the high... i mad a few large deep swings that paid off well!!! and a couple that didn't! won more than I lost. Nothing wrong with setting aside a small percentage of money to gamble with. I love being in cryptocurrenc...
by l1am
Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 108049

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

It was a Fun RIDE!!! gotta gamble a little sometimes.. I'm up a few percent from the high... i mad a few large deep swings that paid off well!!! and a couple that didn't! won more than I lost. Nothing wrong with setting aside a small percentage of money to gamble with. I love being in cryptocurrenc...
by l1am
Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 59
Views: 3389

Re: Tax loss harvesting

I have three primary taxable funds: VTSAX, VTIAX and VWIUX. Does it sound reasonable to switch auto-reinvestments for VTSAX and VTIAX and direct to VWIUX. Then I can TLH from the stock funds. Seems like the simplest option for me. Just means I can't TLH from the bond fund, but movement there is muc...
by l1am
Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 59
Views: 3389

Re: Tax loss harvesting

CGs however are only generated through active selling, for which I can offset via accrued CLs? Incorrect. If you own a mutual fund and the fund manager makes trades inside the fund, those capital gains get passed out to you on a 1099-DIV, and you have to pay taxes on them as if you sold the funds y...
by l1am
Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 59
Views: 3389

Re: Tax loss harvesting

Yield is a term that refers to the amount of taxable income (interest, dividends, capital gains, etc.) that an investment generates. Certain investments, like a collectible painting, don't generate any yield - gains or losses come from price fluctuations only. Stocks generate yield through dividend...
by l1am
Sun Jun 07, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 59
Views: 3389

Re: Tax loss harvesting

Keep in mind it's $3000/year, with unused losses carrying forward, so unless you only care about getting a tax deduction this year and never again, there's still an advantage in harvesting more than $3k of losses. It's really more than $3k, because harvesting large losses presumes that you have a l...
by l1am
Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 59
Views: 3389

Re: Tax loss harvesting

You're not missing the basic concept, but you are missing some ways that TLH can be advantageous: By taking a deduction now of unlimited amount of capital gains, and $3,000 of other income, you're effectively receiving an interest-free loan from the government. This money can be invested and genera...
by l1am
Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone not bother with Tax Loss Harvesting?
Replies: 116
Views: 7325

Re: Anyone not bother with Tax Loss Harvesting?

Don’t bother? It’s a $3000 tax deduction annually for mere seconds of effort. Seriously, I can put in a sell and buy order in seconds from my phone. How does that qualify as a bother? Beyond the $3k, I don't TLH on unrealized losses. All that does is adjust cost basis aka defer the same ultimate CG...
by l1am
Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 108049

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

It was a Fun RIDE!!! gotta gamble a little sometimes.. I'm up a few percent from the high... i mad a few large deep swings that paid off well!!! and a couple that didn't! won more than I lost. Nothing wrong with setting aside a small percentage of money to gamble with. I love being in cryptocurrenc...
by l1am
Sun May 31, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 59
Views: 3389

Re: Tax loss harvesting

Besides the $3k income offset, Is there any advantage to _actively_ selling stock just to TLH? So, you are dismissing the value of postponing CG taxes? Suppose that a large fraction of your taxable account will be passed on to your beneficiaries, or donated to charity. If you harvest enough losses ...
by l1am
Sun May 31, 2020 2:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 59
Views: 3389

Tax loss harvesting

Am I misunderstanding TLH or is it just essentially deferring CG taxes (via cost basis adjustment)?

Besides the $3k income offset, Is there any advantage to _actively_ selling stock just to TLH?
by l1am
Sat May 30, 2020 2:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DraftKings?
Replies: 25
Views: 1966

Re: DraftKings?

Do you think you have information about sports gambling or DraftKings that the broader market hasn’t already priced in?
by l1am
Thu May 28, 2020 3:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads: What is your largest single stock holding? (if any)
Replies: 79
Views: 4279

Re: Bogleheads: What is your largest single stock holding? (if any)

MSFT 12%

Capital gains taxes.

Don’t reinvest dividends, don’t contribute, but the stock has done so well it’s still a high percentage.
by l1am
Wed May 27, 2020 3:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 13379

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

OP, you should also compare SPY vs VGT.
by l1am
Sat May 23, 2020 2:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42392

Re: Why international?

dropdx wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:23 pm
So, I just read this whole thread, but I'm confused.

Do I buy international?
I’d recommend 20-30% as per the efficient frontier in VG studies. Diversification is another benefit if you don’t want to bet on a single country.
by l1am
Fri May 15, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42392

Re: Why international?

These fixed period comparisons don't make sense at all. Of course the region with the most recent best performance will come out the best. Rolling returns would be more useful. Agreed. I finally remembered where I saw this data recently: The Long-Term in International Stocks (A Wealth of Common Sen...
by l1am
Sat May 09, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306624

Re: Coronavirus and the market

2. Flu season months is Dec- Mar and COVID19 started in mid-March. We were lucky that new virus came when Flu season was ending.. Are you sure? I suspect COVID might have been around late last year. https://patch.com/california/northridge/flu-cases-spike-killing-44-people-week-california https://ww...
by l1am
Sat May 09, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16370

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

If the US did outperform INTL for the next decade, as it did last decade, what global market cap would US be by 2030?
by l1am
Wed May 06, 2020 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11498

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

3 months is nothing but noise/variance. You need to do some reading on variance and expected value. A -EV play can win in the short term but ultimately converges to true expected value over enough samples. Write a computer program to randomly pick 3 stocks, to pit against VTI in a 3 month backtest. ...
by l1am
Tue May 05, 2020 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16370

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

“Whenever you disagree with Jack Bogle, you end up with egg on your face.” —William Bernstein "If there's one place I don't want people to take my advice, it's international. I want you to think it through for yourself." - Jack Bogle https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=104781 Great thr...
by l1am
Mon May 04, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42392

Re: Why international?

Starfox wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 11:18 am
Are you taking any actions based on your personal review and highlights? Keeping the 20% international, reducing/increasing?
Or dump everything for TRBCX since it outperformed everything else over the past decade.

VGT has done even better.
by l1am
Mon May 04, 2020 1:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All-in-one fund recommendations
Replies: 46
Views: 3967

Re: All-in-one fund recommendations

VTSAX / VTIAX. The amount of time you’ll spend discussing this, you could’ve rebalanced every few years for life.
by l1am
Sun May 03, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16370

Re: American exceptionalism

I suspect some of this is due to the facts that our economy relative to other DMs is more innovative, more entrepreneurial, we have the world's reserve currency, faster economic growth, more risk taking with disruptive and transformative tech than in Japan or Europe, plus we have the deepest equity...
by l1am
Sat May 02, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42392

Re: Why international?

Lol, "stay the course, except for whenever you feel like you shouldnt" This should be Bogleheads rule number 1. You also have to continue to tell other people to stay the course even when you don't. "Don't chase performance, unless of course its US performance" "Buy the haystack, so long as the hay...
by l1am
Sat May 02, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42392

Re: Why international?

Source: https://www.fifthsetinvestment.com/the-sp-500-vs-the-world-sp-500-returns-have-been-the-best-so-why-bother-with-anything-else/ From January 1994 through December 1999, the S&P 500 returned an annualized 23.5% compared to 12.2% for International Developed Value and less than 1% annualized for...
by l1am
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 108049

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Bogleheads: “Don’t just show me a market timing strategy that has worked in the past. Just because it worked in the past doesn’t mean it will work in the future!” Also Bogleheads: So far, the U.S. stock market has always recovered and gone on to new heights. Why would you invest at all if you didn’...