Search found 230 matches

by sabhen
Tue May 19, 2020 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63144

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

The bottom is always revealed in hindsight. We invest with foresight. The bear case seems to be always the smarter, more compelling, more insightful and best argued compared with the bullish case. Markets are complex discounting systems that are counter-intuitive. The best investments are always whe...
by sabhen
Tue May 05, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [On-going Scams - Post them here]
Replies: 297
Views: 16735

Re: [On-going Scams - Post them here]

Job offers offered through LinkedIn and the likes that promise huge financial rewards involving oil industry chemicals in the middle east. The scammers use fake documents (contracts, invoices, emails, etc...) and fake identities to make believe you are dealing with genuine companies and executives. ...
by sabhen
Sun May 03, 2020 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to sell low? Buffett sells entire airline stake
Replies: 63
Views: 9531

Re: When to sell low? Buffett sells entire airline stake

Most transportation businesses (airlines, auto companies, cruise lines,...) are capital intensive and not really long-term investments. They are very vulnerable to recessions and external shocks. I am surprised that Buffett got back into airlines after shunning them for many many years. Perhaps he t...
by sabhen
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

Economy and stocks are not perfectly correlated. In 2019, Stocks did very well (like around +30%) despite US GDP growth of around 2%, albeit after a bad year in 2018 for stocks (around -20%) and a GDP growth of around 3%. Then Fed changed course in early 2019 from tightening to easing. Fed policy ha...
by sabhen
Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Go or no go on Carnival cruise
Replies: 114
Views: 6977

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Why taking unreasonable risk?
by sabhen
Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.
Replies: 151
Views: 14892

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Will this be true for the things we need (in the US): Housing, Healthcare, Education?
by sabhen
Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College choice dilemma
Replies: 167
Views: 7655

Re: College choice dilemma

(What is "HOD" ? HYPSM - Harvard Yale Princeton Stanford M?=MIT?)
HOD: Human and Organizational Development ....I think.
by sabhen
Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value as bubble protection (Ben Felix video)
Replies: 13
Views: 724

Re: Value as bubble protection (Ben Felix video)

The small cap value premium is a myth. Are energy & commodities, banking & industrial, retail, transportation and real estate really going to be secular growers? I doubt it. The Nobel prize academics and their disciples who pushed this myth should be asked for a refund. These stocks will strongly re...
by sabhen
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying house this week
Replies: 22
Views: 2065

Re: Buying house this week

Don't. If you can wait 1-2 years. Downside risk is much higher.
by sabhen
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 348
Views: 31226

Re: It's Not Different This Time

In the absence of knowledge, the best thing to do is to stay put. We knew that in wartime, and this is no different. Those who make rash moves well usually pay a steep price.
When a train is coming towards you at high speed do you stay put?
by sabhen
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 348
Views: 31226

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Statement like these may sound reassuring and people are scared in these difficult time looking for direction. Each individual situation is different. We should refrain from giving blanket advice. The question is knowing what we know now would you have sold on February 19? I know the answer to this ...
by sabhen
Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declines in stocks do not occur in a vacuum
Replies: 30
Views: 1876

Re: Declines in stocks do not occur in a vacuum

Not sure if the title is correct. In "normal" times when there is a correction, stocks can drop for any reasons or no reason. In abnormal times like the one we are in, markets are forward looking and discounting some bad news to come. The decline is function of the gap between expectations and reali...
by sabhen
Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio's paradigm change
Replies: 46
Views: 2840

Re: Ray Dalio's paradigm change

retiringwhen wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:49 am as someone who has read books on how to use social media for marketing Thanks for the feedback. Dalio himself advises people to be open minded and not to be too sure about their own opinions (I am also reading an excellent book, Thinking in bets by A Du...
by sabhen
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would love to hear from Dr Bill Bernstein
Replies: 3
Views: 558

Re: Would love to hear from Dr Bill Bernstein

I am rereading his book "The Investor's Manifesto". It is extremely relevant to the present situation. He stressed and I am paraphrasing that "Black Swan" events and severe market losses are to be expected when investing in equities and should be expected. You need to be prepared and design an appro...
by sabhen
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated 3/18 - "You can't hide in bonds" article
Replies: 183
Views: 9991

Re: "You can't hide in bonds" article

Yes, I happen to work in technology marketing, but some of the tactics are similar, regardless: 1. Write a "thought leadership" piece about some pressing issue 2. Establish yourself as a "trusted advisor" to the readership 3. Offer a call to action -- in this case, links to sign up to her newslette...
by sabhen
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 15078

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

There's no question it will hurt the economy, and much of the carnage on Wall Street is forward looking and priced in . It is impossible to say if it is fully priced in yet. The economic hit will be severe. Because it's worldwide. Not just US. I hope it will be short lived. It is better to be safe ...
by sabhen
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 15078

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

Anti-fragility in our personal finances is the basis upon which we take our investment risks. I think reading Antifragile by Nassim Taleb is a good idea in these turbulent times. People should try to keep fit and healthy - not necessarily going to the gym. A walk is better than just watching TV. Un...
by sabhen
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could this selloff be nearly over?
Replies: 68
Views: 5265

Re: Could this selloff be nearly over?

This week (March 2 - 6) US markets are up slightly. It didn't feel like it though
An inflection point has occurred this week in the US market.

Maybe the Fed has something to do with it.

China Market is almost fully recovered.

This is great news, in my view.
by sabhen
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could this selloff be nearly over?
Replies: 68
Views: 5265

Re: Could this selloff be nearly over?

The pessimism expressed in this and other threads is in and by itself encouraging. “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” Sir ...
by sabhen
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could this selloff be nearly over?
Replies: 68
Views: 5265

Re: Could this selloff be nearly over?

Chinese and US markets are not perfectly correlated for sure. I was mostly referring to the YTD graph. The Chinese Market was first to go down at the beginning of February. US market followed with a lag about 3-4 weeks. China had the bulk of the fatalities and pundits were talking about disrupted su...
by sabhen
Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could this selloff be nearly over?
Replies: 68
Views: 5265

Could this selloff be nearly over?

The Chinese Shanghai Market has recovered VERY nicely from the selloff which started at the beginning of February. China is, of course, the epicenter of this Corona Virus problem. The US markets selloff came with a lag of about a month after the Chinese Market started its selloff. The selloff, what ...
by sabhen
Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18839
Views: 2633870

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

If there is any silver lining to all of this correction, the Chinese Shanghai Market has recovered VERY nicely from the selloff which started at the beginning of February. China is the epicenter of this Corona Virus problem, of course. The US market has a lag of about a month behind the Chinese Mark...
by sabhen
Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for best option to choose for company pension
Replies: 6
Views: 549

Re: Looking for best option to choose for company pension

Thanks Watty and Cruncher. I really appreciate your input. It helped me think through it objectively. I do not need the pension right now. I am strongly leaning towards taking the lump sum and roll it into an IRA to be invested conservatively and then converted into a Roth when we are in a lower tax...
by sabhen
Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for best option to choose for company pension
Replies: 6
Views: 549

Looking for best option to choose for company pension

I have a small non-COLA company pension with various options to pick from. Most savings are in Taxable, tIRA, Roth IRA invested in index funds. Net Worth close to $3.5M excluding pension. Me: 62 (retired) DW:57 (retiring this year from teaching) Tax bracket: Federal (22%), CA (9.3%) State: CA Plan t...
by sabhen
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway 2019 Shareholder Letter
Replies: 28
Views: 2895

Re: Berkshire Hathaway 2019 Shareholder Letter

I like his and Charlie Munger clear thinking. He was always consistent in his investment philosophy. A boglehead of sorts. I own one share of the B class for fun. I always wanted to attend at least once his Woodstock of Capitalists in Omaha. I like to do that this year. Do you need to have a minimum...
by sabhen
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Expensive ink cartridge for Canon printer
Replies: 21
Views: 899

Expensive ink cartridge for Canon printer

I purchased a very cheap Canon printer. I am getting fed up with paying high prices for ink cartridges. I find the remanufactured ink cartridge a bit cheaper. I am looking for a cheaper solution perhaps a refill. Or I may need to go with a different printer with no ink to change. Any suggestions?
by sabhen
Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Make The Case: Fidelity v. Schwab
Replies: 66
Views: 4970

Re: Make The Case: Fidelity v. Schwab

With regards to sending international wires overseas in US dollars. Schwab charges $25. I was told fidelity does not. That is a factor that may make open a business checking account with Fidelity.
by sabhen
Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for suggestions for a business bank account
Replies: 6
Views: 494

Re: Looking for suggestions for a business bank account

Thanks 123. I will need to use letters of credit. So I might have to accept this inconvenience. The big banks do not seem to offer a decent money market for earning interest on idle money.
by sabhen
Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for suggestions for a business bank account
Replies: 6
Views: 494

Re: Looking for suggestions for a business bank account

Luckywon,

I got the info by talking to a Schwab representative over the phone who was in a different department. Thanks, I will go to the branch and check this out. Schwab customer reps are usually very good.

What has been your experience so far? I want to also fund a 401k plan from my wages.
by sabhen
Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for suggestions for a business bank account
Replies: 6
Views: 494

Looking for suggestions for a business bank account

I am about to get my LLC registration in the state of California completed. I expect to receive an EIN shortly. I have a personal checking account with Schwab and a credit union. Schwab does not presently have a business checking account. I am looking to a business checking account with hopefully lo...
by sabhen
Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: travel from the U.S. to Europe given geo-political tensions?
Replies: 117
Views: 7783

Re: travel from the U.S. to Europe given geo-political tensions?

I love it when people get scared to travel to Europe because of what they hear in the news. Means cheaper flights to London, Paris etc...
by sabhen
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Preventative car maintenance (oil changes) costs
Replies: 55
Views: 3870

Re: Preventative car maintenance (oil changes) costs

A lot of this maintenance BS with oil/filter and gas goes away with an electrical car.
by sabhen
Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Top Airlines for 2020
Replies: 26
Views: 2234

Re: Top Airlines for 2020

Given a choice between AA and BA to fly to London, I will go with BA if the price is similar.
by sabhen
Tue Nov 26, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Top Airlines for 2020
Replies: 26
Views: 2234

Re: Top Airlines for 2020

The question is why US airlines so far behind? Do they care more about shareholders than customers? Any thoughts?
by sabhen
Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Top Airlines for 2020
Replies: 26
Views: 2234

Top Airlines for 2020

The best airlines per https://www.airlineratings.com/news/airline-ratings-names-best-airlines-2020/ . US airlines: Hawaiian (16th), Alaska (18th) and Delta (19th) 1 Air New Zealand 2 Singapore Airlines 3 All Nippon Airways 4 Qantas 5 Cathay Pacific 6 Emirates 7 Virgin Atlantic 8 EVA Air 9 Qatar Airw...
by sabhen
Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Switch Citi Thank You Preferred for Prestige + card?
Replies: 4
Views: 594

Re: Switch Citi Thank You Preferred for Prestige + card?

I get bombarded by emails from Citi to switch to Thank You Rewards from Citi Double Cash. I prefer cold hard cash.

I get an extra 0.5% on my CC because I opened a checking with CITI with a minimum balance. I will also get a cash bonus after 2 months.
by sabhen
Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First time in Sydney, Australia
Replies: 12
Views: 862

First time in Sydney, Australia

I will spend about 8 days in Sydney. I am traveling solo. Can fellow Bogleheads suggest sites of interest, public transport or car rental, things not to miss? I like museums, mingling with the locals (I thought a visit to Toastmasters club). Areas to avoid perhaps?
by sabhen
Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Canceling escrow account
Replies: 27
Views: 3032

Re: Canceling escrow account

This is a good thread. I am doing a refi with a different lender. My current escrow pays a 2% interest in CA. I like to keep using it for property taxes and insurance. My new lender does not offer an escrow account. Is this possible?
by sabhen
Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Spectrum Internet has a good scam going
Replies: 61
Views: 9119

Re: Spectrum Internet has a good scam going

Spectrum just raised my monthly internet bill by 33%. I don't have much choice in my area. They are gouging their customers.
by sabhen
Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 66
Views: 5942

Re: How to diversify a Three Fund Portfolio in 8 steps

Thanks for sharing. But...

What are the underlying rationale framework and (back) testing data behind such a portfolio construction? Sharpe ratio?

Relying on beliefs is likely to be a poor strategy.
by sabhen
Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inside Fisher Investments
Replies: 123
Views: 12873

Re: Inside Fisher Investments

He is fabulously rich and has his name on the building and his company is private. He does not care about what others think of him. He got away with it so far. Like some other prominent person, I don't want to mention by name.
by sabhen
Thu Oct 24, 2019 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inside Fisher Investments
Replies: 123
Views: 12873

Re: Inside Fisher Investments

A few weeks ago, I got a call from one of their salespeople before this media in SF event came to light. There was no compelling reason I heard that would lead me to invest with them. I don't trust salesmen or smooth-talking CEOs or commercials or anybody who has a vested interest in getting in my p...
by sabhen
Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inside Fisher Investments
Replies: 123
Views: 12873

Re: Inside Fisher Investments

One of his books explains how to get rich. Start a business or marry well or hitch your career to someone who is very successful. His includes use OPM (Other People Money) like all the financial industry.
by sabhen
Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take the mortgage refinance offer?
Replies: 4
Views: 684

Re: Should I take the mortgage refinance offer?

The saving in interest rate is 0.15%. The break-even point assuming (total closing costs/monthly savings) is about 14 months.
by sabhen
Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take the mortgage refinance offer?
Replies: 4
Views: 684

Should I take the mortgage refinance offer?

I got an offer for a 10 year ARM interest rate of 2.975%. My current 10-year ARM is in its fourth year with 3.125%. The reason we like ARM is mainly that we are not sure we will stay in the property for the full 10 years. Worse case, we will retire the mortgage before it resets to higher rates. At p...
by sabhen
Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any experiences (good/bad) with EasyJet for EU travel?
Replies: 24
Views: 2006

Re: Any experiences (good/bad) with EasyJet for EU travel?

EasyJet is a good airline. They have a strict carry-on luggage policy as pointed out by some posters above. Once one of the flight attendants took a leave for health reasons. We had to wait a couple of hours to find a local substitute.