Search found 1017 matches

by qwertyjazz
Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I contribute 100% of paycheck to 401k?
Replies: 13
Views: 2523

Re: Should I contribute 100% of paycheck to 401k?

It matters if you get a match. Some match programs only match each month if there is a contribution. If no match, some argue to invest as early in the year as possible every year to increase compounding time.
by qwertyjazz
Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% invested, all in, no cash- how do you do it?
Replies: 42
Views: 3679

Re: 100% invested, all in, no cash- how do you do it?

I have been wondering about this too. The underlying problem is even with steady secure employment and a long investment horizon individual expenses are more granular. Different months have different expenses - car, trips, purchases etc. I would like to have next to no EF and an exceedingly small am...
by qwertyjazz
Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?
Replies: 125
Views: 8766

Re: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?

Does going to a doc in a highly ranked medical system help? I go to Duke for my docs and I would think that they would weed out any docs that are substandard. Would that be an accurate assumption? That is like asking would a great English Professor at Harvard be who you would want to teach you comp...
by qwertyjazz
Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Bogleheads you would most like to meet and why?
Replies: 134
Views: 9456

Re: Bogleheads you would most like to meet and why?

TheTimeLord wrote:
Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:49 am
Someday I would like to meet myself. I have heard I am funny and witty and I think I would enjoy my company.
I believe you chose the correct name then
http://tardis.wikia.com/wiki/List_of_mu ... or_stories
by qwertyjazz
Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?
Replies: 204
Views: 15310

Re: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?

KF Great question. For most of my life, I did not care about money. Having a family and a bad experience at work changed that. I never really valued much things that I could be cheaply and never had the money to buy things that would have made a difference (millions of dollars level) or donated (fun...
by qwertyjazz
Mon Sep 25, 2017 5:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?
Replies: 125
Views: 8766

Re: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?

I have never heard of any patient being allowed to observe another's surgery or procedure and don't see how that would help anyway. I have permitted Med students to observe at teaching hospitals when I or a family member is the patient but not random patients. http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_56fc...
by qwertyjazz
Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 3022

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

...1. Risk is the (often roughly) known probability of a known outcome. 2. Uncertainty is when the probability is unknown and/or the outcome is unknown. Those are pretty much Knight's definitions. Unfortunately, I've discovered that his definitions are not by any means widely accepted. The funny th...
by qwertyjazz
Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are long-term market returns reliable?
Replies: 38
Views: 4209

Re: Are long-term market returns reliable?

I'm not sure I agree with the comments that, even if poor outcomes can result after 30 years of disciplined saving and investing, that information is not actionable. It's in the hands of the Gods. All we can do is continue to chug along like good soldiers, do what we always do, and believe -- that'...
by qwertyjazz
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 3022

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

There is a huge lit on this, but the simplest version is this... 1. Risk is the (often roughly) known probability of a known outcome. So a 50% chance of losing $100 is a risk of a negative outcome. Sometimes this is put it terms of expected utility or decision theory. 2. Uncertainty is when the pro...
by qwertyjazz
Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Florida Hurricanes: When and where to go?
Replies: 141
Views: 13395

Re: Florida Hurricanes: When and where to go?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php

Read it through and follow the links. Have a good weather app on your phone. The answer in regards to evacuation is it depends which although not satisfying is correct. Learn more
by qwertyjazz
Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?
Replies: 23
Views: 1875

Re: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?

The underlying question is whether they would be in the same risk pool as those younger. There is not a fixed amount of 'annuities' per my limited understanding. It simply increases the pool. Assuming no bias in who buys and no risk splitting (Rothschild-Stihlitz), then the larger pool should simply...
by qwertyjazz
Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: effect of home purchase on AA
Replies: 11
Views: 1056

Re: effect of home purchase on AA

The only other variable to include would be whether you have any intention of selling it at any point. Then it's possibly variable value would also have to be considered. Otherwise, starting with a cash flow analysis of current rent minus future HOA of condo with a consideration of current net asset...
by qwertyjazz
Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?
Replies: 255
Views: 17884

Re: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?

It is true that this community has matured and just about everything has been discussed before. The recent coyote thread follows at least one or two previous coyote threads. I also wonder if the Houston poster is still worried about the chamber bitter weed in their grass? https://www.bogleheads.org...
by qwertyjazz
Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life at crossroads. What would you do ?
Replies: 198
Views: 18380

Re: Life at crossroads. What would you do ?

https://aeon.co/essays/how-work-changed-to-make-us-all-passionate-quitters << The quitting economy When employees are treated as short-term assets, they reinvent themselves as marketable goods, always ready to quit>> OP, This article might be useful to you. KlangFool The underlying question, OP, is...
by qwertyjazz
Mon Aug 07, 2017 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Las Vegas Slot Machine Strategy (maximize entertainment value)
Replies: 31
Views: 2718

Re: Las Vegas Slot Machine Strategy (maximize entertainment value)

The goal is lowering the rate you can complete a bet because the house almost always has an advantage. So if you wear glasses, leave them at home. Break a couple of bones so that you concentrate more on the pain. Drinking alchohol is mixed results as it lowers inhibitions (n.b.; the free drinks give...
by qwertyjazz
Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Fidelity Beats Vanguard on Total Expenses for 14 Index Mutual Funds]
Replies: 63
Views: 4861

Re: How Fidelity’s War With Vanguard Means Big Savings for Investors

Often lost in these discussions about the balance of cost and service, is the fact that many Vanguard customers/investors have no assets or accounts at Vanguard Brokerage Services. Also, this is a decidedly one way war since Vanguard runs at-cost. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/...
by qwertyjazz
Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SNAP News - S&P 500 Index vs Total Stock Market Index
Replies: 10
Views: 1060

Re: SNAP News - S&P 500 Index vs Total Stock Market Index

I think the question will be whether they will tract as closely over the next ten years. Being the idiot I am, I would not even hazard a guess as to which will be 'better.'
by qwertyjazz
Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Fidelity Beats Vanguard on Total Expenses for 14 Index Mutual Funds]
Replies: 63
Views: 4861

Re: How Fidelity’s War With Vanguard Means Big Savings for Investors

Often lost in these discussions about the balance of cost and service, is the fact that many Vanguard customers/investors have no assets or accounts at Vanguard Brokerage Services. Also, this is a decidedly one way war since Vanguard runs at-cost. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/...
by qwertyjazz
Wed Jul 26, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to move? New job, considering Nevada...
Replies: 28
Views: 2887

Re: Where to move? New job, considering Nevada...

Is this a telemedicine job? There might be issues of taxation of state the service provided in.
by qwertyjazz
Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kicking the net worth habit
Replies: 47
Views: 5726

Re: Kicking the net worth habit

I like the if you annuitize your money approach

https://www.immediateannuities.com/annu ... rs/?sce=hc

It is dependent though on interest rates. I like that it is also dependent on average life expectancy. It is also nice that it is at least theoretically actionable even if you never do it.
by qwertyjazz
Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old
Replies: 61
Views: 3355

Re: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old

BOB Books
Reading Rainbow App on iPhone
Keyboard piano
Train sets
Chalkboard
Phonics Cards
Nursery Rhymes
Silly Dances
by qwertyjazz
Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 4306

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

Cantpassagain: "Anything is possible..." We're talking about whether to rebalance right now. My argument is that the steady 30 year decline of yields - from 15% to 2% - cannot be repeated when bond yields are currently under 3%. So a repeat of 1982 to 2012 is not going to happen until interest rate...
by qwertyjazz
Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 4306

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

Let's have a look at the chart on the bottom of this page on Risk and Time. http://www.norstad.org/finance/risk-and-time.html Paul There seems to be a false dichotomy of rebalancing at a fixed AA or 100 percent equities. There should to be some more reasonable approach to shifts to fixed income tak...
by qwertyjazz
Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 4306

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

From a returns perspective, rebalancing has historically either made virtually no difference or had a significant negative effect. For instance, a rebalanced portfolio with 60% TSM and 40% ITT starting with nothing and getting annual contributions of $10k from 1972 until now would be worth $14.21 m...
by qwertyjazz
Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 4306

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

Yeah rebalancing and the AA model is concerned with controlling the percentage risk at a given time point - but you buy milk with dollars and not percent of assets and utility of extra money is not constant regardless of amount
by qwertyjazz
Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books not to read.
Replies: 155
Views: 13215

Re: Books not to read.

Fiction books in general. There are so many excellent non-fiction books to be read I gave fiction up decades ago. :shock: ^Let this be a warning to myself. Books not to read... Hmm... Time surely is better spent on some books than others, but it's darn near impossible to read a book and not get som...
by qwertyjazz
Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books not to read.
Replies: 155
Views: 13215

Re: Books not to read.

Necronomicon Ex-mortis
by qwertyjazz
Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books not to read.
Replies: 155
Views: 13215

Re: Books not to read.

The Millionaire Next Door by Stanley and Danko. Victoria Hi Victoria - I read this book many years ago so I am interested in your thoughts. Best. The book is poorly written. The people profiled in the book are uninspiring. The theme is not only anti-consumption but also anti-intellectual. Accumulat...
by qwertyjazz
Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books not to read.
Replies: 155
Views: 13215

Re: Books not to read.

Anything by Jane Austen Gasp! And today the 200th anniversary of her death! I think Jane Austen was a very astute observer of the effects of money on people. Her chapter in Sense and Sensibility when the sister in law justifies a lower and lower amount of inheritance for her husband's sisters and s...
by qwertyjazz
Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment advice for $4 million - can I do all stocks?
Replies: 72
Views: 6446

Re: Investment advice for $4 million - can I do all stocks?

You are investing for your kids. So if you are investing for their retirement, then 100% stocks makes perfect sense. But if you are investing for their first house in SF or a condo in NYC, then you might want to spend the money while you are still alive. If your timeframe then shifts to 20 years, do...
by qwertyjazz
Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest 300K
Replies: 33
Views: 2925

Re: How to invest 300K

If you truly want to be 100 percent stocks - 150k EF balancing the safe asset of your ongoing incomes, then invest it all at once. If you are hesitating, then consider having a 1-2 year worth of spending in bonds. Cash likely should just be for a few days of liquidity in your case. If you are not th...
by qwertyjazz
Sat Jul 15, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Incorprate Alternative Assets to AA
Replies: 6
Views: 752

Re: How to Incorprate Alternative Assets to AA

AA is a shallow model and not meant for that. But if you want to use it, estimate the increased risk over equities as a multiplier. Then can possibly consider individual real estate renormalized to 100 percent. But you probably want a more appropriate risk model.
by qwertyjazz
Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 45yo 18M portfolio, best way to grow?
Replies: 47
Views: 6882

Re: 45yo 18M portfolio, best way to grow?

The problem is you need more definition than growth. Boglehead methodology is about relatively conservative growth 5-7 percent compounded over decades is impressive though. Add in your rate of saving and you would have some very impressive numbers. If you want more growth, then you need to concentra...
by qwertyjazz
Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion
Replies: 34
Views: 3070

Re: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion

Well I think you have to have a pretty high math degree to work or rework a Monte Carlo. My old books had some simple examples but nothing along the line of 30-40 year experience applied to a 25 year retirement program using probabilities of occurrences of past events for a final decision. So well ...
by qwertyjazz
Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion
Replies: 34
Views: 3070

Re: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion

I was wondering if anyone had run into analyses using extended MCMC methods using some form of momentum or mean reversion modeling which takes this into effect using stock returns http://www.prospercuity.com/cover_up.htm is the only place that I've really seen it. There also a paper by the Trinity ...
by qwertyjazz
Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion
Replies: 34
Views: 3070

Re: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion

I was wondering if anyone had run into analyses using extended MC methods using some form of momentum or mean reversion modeling which takes this into effect using stock returns. This paper from a few years ago looked at Monte Carlo analysis from several angles, including varying the time sequence ...
by qwertyjazz
Wed Jul 05, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion
Replies: 34
Views: 3070

Monte Carlo and Mean Reversion

https://www.kitces.com/blog/monte-carlo-analysis-risk-fat-tails-vs-safe-withdrawal-rates-rolling-historical-returns does a really good job of showing why a naive Monte Carlo approach overestimates bad outcomes. I was wondering if anyone had run into analyses using extended MCMC methods using some fo...
by qwertyjazz
Mon Jul 03, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Stock Returns in a Low-Growth World?
Replies: 63
Views: 5950

Re: High Stock Returns in a Low-Growth World?

GDP growth is only a proxy for stock market returns. The correlation becomes more tenuous as the market is less developed. Soviet Union certainly enjoyed positive GDP growth in most years, yet its stock market returns were always zero. Right. For individual countries , the relationship between GDP ...
by qwertyjazz
Mon Jul 03, 2017 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?
Replies: 24
Views: 2166

Re: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?

The concern is the loss of a job could be correlated with a downswing of the stock market on a macro level (economic slowdown so you are more likely to lose your job) or micro level (bad luck) so many want to keep emergency fund safer. The alternative argument is lost increases of the safe money. It...
by qwertyjazz
Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can't find houses less than 3.3x income. Can we afford it?
Replies: 40
Views: 4796

Re: Can't find houses less than 3.3x income. Can we afford it?

Are there any houses you can rent from non-relatives? This might be a false dichotomy of buy or live with inlaws
by qwertyjazz
Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need to find Loaded Index Funds
Replies: 64
Views: 4708

Re: Need to find Loaded Index Funds

What about changing from your current portfolio until the rules change again or you switch employers? Every three months buy a total stock market ETF or something else simple. Total cost $84. Do not rebalance for a couple of years. Then when the dust settles rebalance back into whatever your preferr...
by qwertyjazz
Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 4204

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

There is a behavorial economics issue here of people doing mental accounting (if you believe the study).

So it does not apply to me. Everyone else in the world makes irrational decisions. But I never do and can therefore simply look at the math. :oops:
by qwertyjazz
Wed Jun 14, 2017 6:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who takes financial chances and why is this forum so financially conservative?
Replies: 139
Views: 14520

Re: Who takes financial chances and why is this forum so financially conservative?

The forum topics here also give a biased view of people's risk. I am not sure how to take intelligent calculated risk on individual stocks. But I think you can take risk in smaller markets like real estate. But that is hyperlocalized and would be hard to post on an international board. You could als...
by qwertyjazz
Tue Jun 13, 2017 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top and bottom of AA usefulness
Replies: 19
Views: 1916

Re: Top and bottom of AA usefulness

It matters your cost of living
I cannot go on without my 2 yachts and jets
Vs
I kinda like a nice beach and a tent
Or
Me, a knife and some flint is all I will ever need
by qwertyjazz
Mon Jun 12, 2017 6:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse returning to work. How to keep low stress lifestyle?
Replies: 47
Views: 5459

Re: Spouse returning to work. How to keep low stress lifestyle?

'Gig' economy type job might make sense depending on where you live. Drive an Uber - do some freelance app development/web design - pick up random stuff on Taskrabbit or equivalent etc If you are not in the city, you mentioned computers. Maybe do some support work. Or learn some home maintenance or ...
by qwertyjazz
Sun Jun 11, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEHR-tolerance versus Loss Aversion--why setting and maintaining your own AA might be a mistake
Replies: 139
Views: 9048

Re: HEHR-tolerance versus Loss Aversion--why setting and maintaining your own AA might be a mistake

Furthermore, perhaps the only way to know if one is hurting or fooling themselves is to keep accurate track of their portfolio performance and compare it to a few all-in-one (AOI) fund performances. I certainly do this myself. [...] I think if you take this message of not looking. Then it is like S...
by qwertyjazz
Sun Jun 11, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEHR-tolerance versus Loss Aversion--why setting and maintaining your own AA might be a mistake
Replies: 139
Views: 9048

Re: HEHR-tolerance versus Loss Aversion--why setting and maintaining your own AA might be a mistake

So why even consider AA until major changes? Buy some stuff on an automatic process let it drift. You have made previous comments about not doing that with SCV. But what about just buy total stock, total international and a percentage of bonds. The ERs have dropped pretty low. There is nothing magi...
by qwertyjazz
Sun Jun 11, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Way To Code A Text Parser
Replies: 27
Views: 1952

Re: Best Way To Code A Text Parser

SNOBOL. No, I don't really mean it, I'm just trying to show everybody how old I am. Thank you for the rabbit hole. SNOBOL and context-free grammers are fascinating OP - Perl is designed for this but the question is what do you want to do with the reports long term - hence Python might make sense if...
by qwertyjazz
Sun Jun 11, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why
Replies: 101
Views: 9425

Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

I like Google, the company. Both Google and Apple, in my opinion, keep their Faustian bargains. I dislike Microsoft because Microsoft does not. People buy Microsoft Word in hope of smooth document interoperability with other Word users, and discover that they didn't get it. People buy PlaysForSure-...
by qwertyjazz
Sun Jun 11, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feasible path to early retirement?
Replies: 18
Views: 2284

Re: Feasible path to early retirement?

OP, Your gross income = 280K. Your annual savings = 36K + 3.5K per month = 36K + 38K = 74K. Let's assume that you pay 100K in tax every year, your annual expense = 280K - 74K (savings) - 100K tax = 106K. To retire early, you need about 30X your annual expense approximately 3 million. In summary, yo...