Search found 302 matches

by Independent George
Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New 401(k) fund allocation advice
Replies: 5
Views: 317

Re: New 401(k) fund allocation advice

I don't think it's worth the hassle of trying to reinvent the Total Market Index; just go 100% into Target Retirement 20XX and forget about it.
by Independent George
Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you all staying the course?
Replies: 114
Views: 6712

Re: Are you all staying the course?

Yep. My 401(k) is in a Target Retirement fund, so no change there other than increasing my contribution on Jan 1, and I'm sticking to my allocation for my 4-fund Roth IRA. I entered the job market during the dot com crash. I bought my condo at peak bubble 2007. I survived the 2008 crash. I have well...
by Independent George
Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7836
Views: 1608140

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

vwgrrc wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:29 pm
Here we go again - SP500 down 1.1%. Where are you people waiting for a discount...
Oh no! How will I ever cope with the pain of a 1.1% drop?!!
by Independent George
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?
Replies: 23
Views: 3960

Re: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?

So, this is basically a proposition bet for eggheads?
by Independent George
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?
Replies: 118
Views: 7347

Re: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?

I count it as % of gross because that's how I have to elect my 401(k) contributions. % of net doesn't make sense to me, as the largest part of my savings (401k and HSA) are the largest portion of what makes my paystub net in the first place. I suppose I could add that to my spreadsheet, but I don't ...
by Independent George
Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7836
Views: 1608140

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

That was sarcasm, just like the crystal ball comment. It means that the occurrence an "imminent recession" can't be known with certainty. I think you misidentified who you were replying to. Alphaless was the one who said a recession was imminent; UpperNwGuy made the crystal ball comment in response...
by Independent George
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Panic set in... now what?
Replies: 63
Views: 10923

Re: Panic set in... now what?

Would an SPIA be good for the OP in these circumstances? I know very little about them, but they seem like a good tool for the risk averse.
by Independent George
Wed Oct 31, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7836
Views: 1608140

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

nedsaid wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:08 am
That's right, I am blaming it all on the month of October.
Then, by extension, are you also blaming Pope Gregory XIII?
by Independent George
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: USPS - Informed delivery - complain on missing items?
Replies: 53
Views: 3235

Re: USPS - Informed delivery - complain on missing items?

I had a package delivery failed on Monday due to nobody being available to sign for it. The thing is, I live in a high rise with a package room staffed from 8AM to 8PM by somebody whose sole job is to sign for packages. I sent a redelivery request and an inquiry as to why they didn't get a signature...
by Independent George
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I doing well financially?
Replies: 162
Views: 12636

Re: Am I doing well financially?

I'm going to break this down a little bit. Gross Income: $232,000 401k (@6%): $13,920 Insurance: $12,000 Itemized Deduction: $24,000 AGI: $206,080 Net Taxable Income: $182,080 FICA Taxable Income: $220,000 Federal tax: $32,278 State Tax (estimated at 8%): $14,566 Est FICA: $16,830 Total Tax: $63,675...
by Independent George
Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I doing well financially?
Replies: 162
Views: 12636

Re: Am I doing well financially?

You are doing extremely well on income... but not in your savings/investing - especially for your level of income. Unless you are still paying off massive student loan debts, there's no reason for you to be at 6% 401k contributions right now. You don't need to increase your income - you need to spen...
by Independent George
Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's Buying General Electric?
Replies: 39
Views: 4578

Re: Who's Buying General Electric?

GE is too big to fail. No idea how long, but it will come back just as strong as it ever was. No one ever won big on a single stock by following the current situation. Everyones running away right now, so if you wanted to take a shot at GE now is the time. I don't think GE is going to disappear - b...
by Independent George
Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long term...."
Replies: 10
Views: 1379

Re: "The long term...."

I've been talking about investing "long-term" since I was in my 20s; somehow, I entered my 40's a couple years ago. I have no idea how this happened, but suddenly, my 'long-term' is starting to look rather intermediate. Uncanny!
by Independent George
Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats with all the FUD here? [market volatility]
Replies: 42
Views: 4280

Re: Whats with all the FUD here? [market volatility]

Germany 1935 to 1945. Austria same period. Czechoslovakia 1939 to 1949. All 3 of those were among the most advanced industrialized countries in the world at the time. Japan same period, arguably not yet a first world country then. Ok, citing conquest by a foreign power seems like a bit of a disinge...
by Independent George
Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7836
Views: 1608140

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Hey, would you look at that! Bond prices went up today.
by Independent George
Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7836
Views: 1608140

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Human beings think in terms of stories; we have since we were huddled against the fire together on the savannah, trying to explain what the stars were. We like Stories - we need Stories. Stories have to make sense in a way that the world rarely does - otherwise, we wouldn't tell them, and they would...
by Independent George
Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats with all the FUD here? [market volatility]
Replies: 42
Views: 4280

Re: Whats with all the FUD here? [market volatility]

To own stocks is to expose oneself to the risk of a 25 per cent drop in *one day*. 80 per cent in one year 100 per cent in a decade. There are developed country stock markets which have experienced these returns in the 20th century. That is only c 22 000 trading days. When has a developed stock mar...
by Independent George
Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats with all the FUD here? [market volatility]
Replies: 42
Views: 4280

Re: Whats with all the FUD here? [market volatility]

Didn't we have similar dips in 2015 and 2016? I confess to being emotionally impacted by the drop; who enjoys seeing their portfolio decline? That doesn't mean I've changed my investment strategy, though. The point to me isn't that Bogleheads don't feel the pain - it's that they don't let that pain ...
by Independent George
Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7836
Views: 1608140

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

It shouldn't, but it does indeed shake up some people. Those who are shaken must have forgotten about this very spring. I must confess - I'm actually a bit shaken up, too. It's not the market performance itself that makes me uneasy, but the possibility of job (and therefore income) loss. I did not ...
by Independent George
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7836
Views: 1608140

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Reading through this thread, it amazes me how many Bogleheads succumb to market timing and buying high/selling low.

The theoretical 'everybody indexes and price discovery disappears' is never going to happen.
by Independent George
Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coffee grinder
Replies: 56
Views: 4009

Re: Coffee grinder

If you're willing to spend a little extra, I bought the Baratza Encore based on near-unanimous acclaim in reviews. The biggest downside is that it is rather tall, and therefore awkward to store, but grinds very evenly and efficiently. I've used both very coarse (for cold brew and french press) and v...
by Independent George
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: High End Wrist Watches (Gone Crazy)
Replies: 254
Views: 30198

Re: High End Wrist Watches (Gone Crazy)

It's funny, but on the Watchuseek forums, I'm the guy telling people to slow down and be sure you aren't living beyond your means; on Bogleheads, I assume anybody with over 100 posts has saved plenty and wish him joy in his endeavors. To me, the whole point of saving is so that you can afford to ind...
by Independent George
Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bose Noise Cancelling Headphones
Replies: 77
Views: 8852

Re: Bose Noise Cancelling Headphones

For a true Boglehead (read: cheap) alternative, you can try wearing regular earbuds beneath these $15 ultraslim shooting earmuffs . It blocks out the sound of the airplane just as well as the noise cancelling set, and they fold up nicely for travel & storage. I am personally staying away from Bose f...
by Independent George
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 20855

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

Nor for me. I recommended an "age-appropriate" Target Date fund for a friend in 2004, and it performed terribly in 2008, just as he was about to retire. We are no longer friends. I still feel terrible about it. Never again.... But just about all funds would have performed terribly in 2008 - and an ...
by Independent George
Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to "waste" money on groceries?
Replies: 109
Views: 9750

Re: How to "waste" money on groceries?

How about both? I save money by baking my own baguettes every morning. However, I then splurge by exclusively buying King Arthur flour (both bread flour and AP flour), which carries a significant price premium for the higher and more consistent glutent content. Then, I save a little by buying it fro...
by Independent George
Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of buying a house
Replies: 28
Views: 2497

Re: Talk me out of buying a house

You are also unmarried and only 31 years old. If/when you get a spouse, where you want to live should be a decision you make together.
by Independent George
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?
Replies: 110
Views: 5820

Re: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?

I would also make the point that if you are an expert within a sector, it probably means you are working in that sector. Over-weighting your portfolio there is likely to increase your risk by even more than what shows up on your statements, as your income is already going to be tied to the performan...
by Independent George
Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 28/F - First time home buyer needs advice on saving more
Replies: 39
Views: 3914

Re: 28/F - First time home buyer needs advice on saving more

Not married nor kids but someday. I want to purchase a home sooner than later because the market had been so hot for so long. I am afraid of being priced out or having to work through retirement to pay rent. As someone who bought his condo in July 2007 for those exact same reasons, I urge you to re...
by Independent George
Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7836
Views: 1608140

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Sooner or later, US stocks will go into freefall, exactly as they have done on multiple occasions in my lifetime.

I think it's important to remember that the point of this thread is not to deride the notion of freefall itself, but the notion that we can predict when it will happen.
by Independent George
Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best ultra thin pocket knife?
Replies: 54
Views: 3600

Re: Best ultra thin pocket knife?

I carry a Spyderco Dragonfly - it's just big enough to be useful, just small enough (with a great pocket clip) to remain discreet, and is way sturdier than the cheap knives you find on Amazon. I use it primarily for opening those stupid plastic anti-theft clamshells that everything is packed in thes...
by Independent George
Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks That Went Bust
Replies: 110
Views: 9457

Re: Individual Stocks That Went Bust

What are the odds of GE joining this list in the next few years?
by Independent George
Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can't handle being in debt (mentally)
Replies: 42
Views: 5058

Re: Can't handle being in debt (mentally)

How deep in debt is he, and how long will it take to pay it off? Depending on the numbers, he might actually be right about withdrawing up to his Roth contributions to pay it down. At 24%, he is almost certainly better paying off the debt than he is $11k in a Roth. If his credit is good, and he can ...
by Independent George
Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The first million is the hardest?
Replies: 46
Views: 9220

Re: The first million is the hardest?

I reached $100k around 2007, so for me, it was the second time I hit $100k that felt the hardest. In hindsight, it really didn't take long, but nevertheless it was a rough time all around.
by Independent George
Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Test your cognitive biases
Replies: 89
Views: 5455

Re: Test your cognitive biases

I guess I scored a zero because the quiz won't load on my browser.
by Independent George
Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for a pep talk
Replies: 39
Views: 5083

Re: Looking for a pep talk

Based on the above, the reason your net worth remained flat is because you counted that $102k in unvested 403b match as an asset in the prior year, and then lost that asset. Based on those numbers, you have: $85k (debt payoff) + $12k (net on sale of house) - $102k = -$5k. Your net worth remained fla...
by Independent George
Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Comfort level with Credit Card Balance
Replies: 86
Views: 5885

Re: Comfort level with Credit Card Balance

I hate the float, so I pay the statement balance the day after the statement closes. I actually disabled autopay because it would transfer on the card's due date instead of the statement close date, and I hate seeing that balance on my account. It's probably irrational, but it's not like my checking...
by Independent George
Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are Credit Cards Actually Convenient?
Replies: 91
Views: 7385

Re: Are Credit Cards Actually Convenient?

When you log into your card account online, there should be a section where you can inform them of any forthcoming trips. On my Chase accounts, it's under 'Settings==>More Settings==>Travel'. I've always inform them as soon as I book a trip now.
by Independent George
Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k matching
Replies: 33
Views: 2427

Re: 401k matching

Based on some recent lawsuits , it is entirely possible that the Professor's 401k plan was just as terrible as advertised. The problem comes with generalizing based on that one personal experience. As detailed in numerous threads here, a lot of private sector plans are genuinely awful, managed by HR...
by Independent George
Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Jim Cramer a Closet Boglehead?
Replies: 22
Views: 2423

Re: Is Jim Cramer a Closet Boglehead?

There's nothing closet about it; he's been explicitly in favor of indexing it for years. "Mad Money" is what you have after you've funded your retirement accounts with low-cost index funds. He's said as much numerous times. I have a modest income and don't have any Mad Money, but a lot of Bogleheads...
by Independent George
Sat Jul 28, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: vanguard rate of return
Replies: 16
Views: 1811

Re: vanguard rate of return

thanks for answering honestly. That explains it. I was wondering if you were misremembering 2000-2002 and were invested in the QQQs which dropped 70% during that time. But even then I thought, in order to have lost that much you'd have to have invested 100% in the QQQs at that time. Looking at the ...
by Independent George
Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: vanguard rate of return
Replies: 16
Views: 1811

Re: vanguard rate of return

can I ask what you were invested in during that period? The reason I'm asking is because the "whole market" you mention did not drop 70%. Between 10/12/07-3/6/09 the total U.S. stock market went down 55% (blue line below). The total international stock market index went down 60% during the same tim...
by Independent George
Thu Jul 26, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: vanguard rate of return
Replies: 16
Views: 1811

Re: vanguard rate of return

It's July 26, so a YTD return would cover just under 7 months. 7 months is not a very long period of time. If your portfolio is sufficiently diversified, and you are satisfied with your asset allocation, you should not worried about any 7 month period. Or even a 7 year period. Investing is about lon...
by Independent George
Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Widow needs help with asset allocation
Replies: 14
Views: 1771

Re: Widow needs help with asset allocation

As a Flagship client would they offer advice on my Fidelity holding or only on the IRA at Vanguard? They will offer advice on your entire portfolio, including your Fidelity holding. I have no personal experience with them (as I'm nowhere near Flagship status), but they are obligated to act as your ...
by Independent George
Tue Jul 24, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you deal with a bear market?
Replies: 35
Views: 2500

Re: How do you deal with a bear market?

mxzeroo wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:34 pm
Thank you, everyone, for the answer. I do believe that the hardest challenge will be to stick in times where everyone will be saying to sell. This topic will certainly be my reference.
Stick around. What everybody here will be saying is, "Stick to the plan and rebalance.".
by Independent George
Tue Jul 24, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off highest APR or highest balance?
Replies: 20
Views: 1203

Re: Pay off highest APR or highest balance?

Mathematically, it is always best to pay off the account with the highest interest rate. There are good psychological reasons to pay off the lowest balance instead of the highest rate; there is no good reason to pay off the highest balance first. Your lowest balance also has the highest rate, so pay...
by Independent George
Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you deal with a bear market?
Replies: 35
Views: 2500

Re: How do you deal with a bear market?

I recently started investing and I like the idea of solid investments that I believe in. Hence I will buy and hold, even in recessions. My portfolio is like 60/40 stocks (etf)/bonds. But a lot of people around me tell me that you should sell your equity investments for bonds or things like gold whe...
by Independent George
Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Widow needs help with asset allocation
Replies: 14
Views: 1771

Re: Widow needs help with asset allocation

You have my condolences on your loss. With over $2M in assets, a nearly paid-off mortgage, and your youngest child's college expenses more or less already taken care of, you could probably leave everything exactly where it is and still be fine. There are a few things you could change, but the import...
by Independent George
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest
Replies: 75
Views: 11465

Re: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest

Most say once you hit the 500k threshold, compounding starts to exceed your deposits. For example a 1% move in the market on any one given day is $5,000. Yearly market returns start to exceed your yearly deposits. You'll see this and start to be amazed. This - a thousand times this. It's taken me 2...
by Independent George
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you handle the urge to DO something?
Replies: 102
Views: 7848

Re: How do you handle the urge to DO something?

It's quite simple - I just remember all the years I spent in my 20s doing a lot of 'something' with my investments.