Search found 342 matches

by Independent George
Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?
Replies: 80
Views: 3909

Re: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?

I was 90/10 in 2008. Ditto for 2011, 2015, 2016, and 2018. I will be adding bonds this year - not because I'm spooked, but because I'm getting older and plan on gradually shifting my AA over the next 25 years. The only thing I've been questioning is whether to hold on 60/40 US:International, but fig...
by Independent George
Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10252
Views: 1805717

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:34 pm
So, from making $9.50/hour with no benefits in 2009 to $75k with four weeks vacation, 6% 401k matching, and health insurance in 2018, along with getting married, having a kid, and buying a house. Never give up; never surrender.
By Grabthar's hammer, what a savings!
by Independent George
Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity reports-The number of 401(k) and IRA millionaires declined. The number of people with $1 million or more in the
Replies: 45
Views: 4425

Re: Fidelity reports-The number of 401(k) and IRA millionaires declined. The number of people with $1 million or more in

Those aggregate numbers seem utterly meaningless; the relevant number would be the age-adjusted balance, which was not even mentioned in the press release. Why on earth would anybody want to average a 25 year-old's balance with a 60 year-old's? They are in no way comparable - yet that's what those a...
by Independent George
Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10252
Views: 1805717

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I believe it. For me it wasn't "managing to stay employed" that was the problem. I graduated university in December 2008 and after two months of job-hunting, when my bank account had dried up to under $40, had to take a tech support job in a call center for $9.50/hour. I wasn't in a position to sta...
by Independent George
Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 269
Views: 13420

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Moral condemnation seems like an extreme characterization. It's more about sending the usual message that market timing, and especially extreme shifts, is likely to be unsuccessful. True, but this is not an attempt to outgain the market by predicting the troughs; it's a momentum strategy to reduce ...
by Independent George
Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do you keep in checking?
Replies: 135
Views: 10279

Re: How much do you keep in checking?

$1,000 after expenses. I get paid on the 15th and the end of the month, and most of my big bills are paid by around the 5th. So once those bills are paid by the 5th, I move everything above $1,000 out of checking and into the account of my choice. If I know a big expense is coming up, it's not hard ...
by Independent George
Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 269
Views: 13420

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I think whole thread is a collective fail by the Boglehead community. Why the deference and applause for a market timing scheme? Why aren't forum veterans pointing out that buying and selling of an entire portfolio based on some economic indicators is ill-considered? Mostly because (1) it's not our...
by Independent George
Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 269
Views: 13420

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

There are several reasons why I opted to switch to trend following. The biggest has to do with regret minimization, something that I have become far more attracted to over time than return optimization. I know that it would be difficult for me to just do nothing when the news is terrible and stocks...
by Independent George
Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to give up on Netspend?
Replies: 2
Views: 459

When to give up on Netspend?

I set up my Netspend accounts in 2017, back when you could hold a $5k balance in each account and the prevailing interest rate on my Ally account was around 1%. Since I only keep around $20k in cash (just over 6 months expenses), it was worth the setup hassles to get an extra 4% on half of my cash b...
by Independent George
Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.
Replies: 96
Views: 11629

Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

livesoft wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:45 pm
Did you rebalance on or about 12/24/2018? Why or why not?
I did not. I was travelling and only make transactions from my home computer; by the time I was back, it had all blown over. I'm not sure if I would have re-balanced even if I were at home, though, and I have no regrets that I didn't.
by Independent George
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.
Replies: 96
Views: 11629

Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

It is entirely possible that the market will tank again this year and take us into bear territory - and if it doesn't happen this year, it is a certainty that it will eventually happen sometime later. I will do the exact same thing regardless: work, save, invest, and rebalance.
by Independent George
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Letting Dog out everyday for lunch... the roundtrip drive is killing me.. ideas?
Replies: 151
Views: 9508

Re: Letting Dog out everyday for lunch... the roundtrip drive is killing me.. ideas?

I work from home now, but I used to have a dog walker come in when I worked in the office. During busy season, the walker would come in for multiple trips. It is the norm for single office workers in the city; I understand your hesitation to give a stranger the keys to your home, but it's not an unc...
by Independent George
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Starting from zero..literally.
Replies: 41
Views: 4281

Re: Starting from zero..literally.

1. Quite a lot of people are still deep in student debt at 32. There's nothing wrong with zero, and still plenty of time for him to build assets. 2. If he sold his assets to pay off his debts, then he was already at zero (or less) net worth before. All he did was re-organize his accounts, and... 3. ...
by Independent George
Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?
Replies: 104
Views: 5940

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

I hope someday to reach a point when I consider 20% nothing, but in my case I will doubt that will ever happen. I found 2018 worse than Black Monday because for a little while it reminded me of the market rhythm from back in 2008. I think the most unusual part is most people here seem not to realiz...
by Independent George
Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What lifestyle creep made you happier?
Replies: 291
Views: 24894

Re: What lifestyle creep made you happier?

My dog. I probably $25k over the last 10 years, but you know what? She's worth it.
by Independent George
Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?
Replies: 104
Views: 5940

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

I totally misread the title and thought the OP was talking about 2008, not 2018.

2008 was the year I learned what my risk tolerance was, and the importance of liquidity; 2018 was nothing. I suppose it was the year the Bogleheads learned who the closet market timers among us were.
by Independent George
Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An emergency fund cautionary tale
Replies: 89
Views: 10397

Re: An emergency fund cautionary tale

Yes, selling stocks in a downturn is not ideal, but (1) it's actually fairly unlikely that stocks will be down 50% at the precise moment that you need that money, and (2) the opportunity cost of holding cash reserves is not to be underestimated. I'm not saying that anyone should hold their 'EF' in ...
by Independent George
Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10252
Views: 1805717

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

A big example of the dangers of panic selling at the bottom and missing a big recovery: OPS's $771 million pension shortfall a product of 'mind-boggling' mistakes https://www.omaha.com/news/education/primary-secondary/ops-s-million-pension-shortfall-a-product-of-mind-boggling/article_db5ed0cd-b43d-...
by Independent George
Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this is a concern for Vanguard--"Two-Factor Authentication Might Not Keep You Safe"
Replies: 23
Views: 2450

Re: Is this is a concern for Vanguard--"Two-Factor Authentication Might Not Keep You Safe"

As per usual, the weakest part of an security system is the user. This is a concern only if you fall for a phishing scam in you email - you have to click through the link from the scammers to get to the fake Vanguard site. Just log in from your home computer using the bookmarked URL on your browser,...
by Independent George
Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?
Replies: 104
Views: 5940

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

The most important thing I learned is that any paper losses in your tax deferred accounts are far less important than your paycheck. As long as you are still employed, it's really not difficult to stick to ride out the market swings. If you are laid off, things start to look very different.
by Independent George
Fri Jan 25, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't good ideas beat the market?
Replies: 33
Views: 2625

Re: Why don't good ideas beat the market?

Good ideas do beat the market. All the time. It's just that the good ideas are in companies that actually make and do stuff (like FAANG), and not the expert analysts who think they can tell the future.

The stock market is not the economy, and the analysts are not the stock market.
by Independent George
Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings accounts
Replies: 21
Views: 2815

Re: Savings accounts

Probably the best reason to keep multiple savings accounts is as a way of diversifying in case of a security breach. Even if you eventually get all your money back, fraud investigations still take time. Assuming you're not recycling passwords (right?), spreading your savings around helps ensure that...
by Independent George
Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge fund manager lost more than 30% in '18: 'Nothing went right'
Replies: 21
Views: 2355

Re: Hedge fund manager lost more than 30% in '18: 'Nothing went right'

However, did you see that a "Billionaire" hedge fund manager just purchased the most expensive residence ever in Manhattan overlooking Central Park? It doubled the previous most expensive purchase for a 24,000 s.f. condo. How would Bogleheads feel about a fund with expense ratios allowing such accu...
by Independent George
Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was Vanguard's Jack Bogle too successful? [Australian newspaper article]
Replies: 11
Views: 1602

Re: Was Vanguard's Jack Bogle too successful? [Australian newspaper article]

What I've always wondered is, if Index funds have been reducing efficiency, shouldn't that make it easier for active investors to beat the market? Shouldn't we see a larger and larger number of active investors beating the index funds to take advantage of the inefficiencies until we reach an equilib...
by Independent George
Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What causes/creates the next bull market?
Replies: 17
Views: 1367

Re: What causes/creates the next bull market?

All economic growth is fundamentally about productivity, and market appreciation is grossly tied to economic growth.
by Independent George
Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Just another noob worrying about the crash
Replies: 32
Views: 3727

Re: Just another noob worrying about the crash

Given your portfolio, I assume you're a high earner with a fair amount saved in cash for emergencies.

Enjoy your life, and don't worry about the things you can't control. And yes, 50% in Amazon is crazy unless it's part of your compensation package.
by Independent George
Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we in trouble?
Replies: 122
Views: 18390

Re: Are we in trouble?

There's too much piling on in this thread, and not enough solutions. Unloading that house in Chicago has to be priority #1. I know it hurts to drop a price on a home you have loved for years, but the fact is a house is only worth exactly as much as somebody is willing to pay for it, not what you thi...
by Independent George
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why contribute to retirement funds?
Replies: 43
Views: 3289

Re: Why contribute to retirement funds?

His argument is he doesn't want his money tied up until a certain age and if he needs it, then to be penalized for withdraws. To me, this is a good reason in favor of a 401k - it makes it harder to pull your money out on something impulsive. If you earn enough to max out your contributions (let alo...
by Independent George
Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will you contribute all $6,000 to IRA in Jan or DCA?
Replies: 32
Views: 1973

Re: Will you contribute all $6,000 to IRA in Jan or DCA?

I will be doing a lump sum. It kind of sucked when I did in January 2018, but who knows what 2019 will bring? The bigger question for me is whether or not I rebalance.
by Independent George
Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the low for the S&P 500?
Replies: 87
Views: 7996

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Curious if the bears on this thread have been acting on their predictions in their investments? Of course I am! Why, I've been buying more stock every couple of weeks during this downturn, like clockwork!* And I'm even planning on buying some more in a couple more weeks.** *It"s pure coincidence th...
by Independent George
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the low for the S&P 500?
Replies: 87
Views: 7996

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

I am calling 1450. Panic is contagious, and the herd is stampeding for the exits right now. Hopefully I will still be employed when it happens, so I can keep loading up in my 401k when it bottoms out.
by Independent George
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pay off mortgage in higher interest rate environment
Replies: 9
Views: 1247

Re: Pay off mortgage in higher interest rate environment

I'm actually leaning towards the opposite direction. Back when interest rates were low, I preferred to pay extra into my 4.5% mortgage because I couldn't find a safe return elsewhere. Now that rates are climbing, the spread between a mortgage and treasuries/CDs/money markets are shrinking . My onlin...
by Independent George
Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military-Advice Needed
Replies: 13
Views: 1463

Re: Military-Advice Needed

I'd say the one big difference between today and 2007/2008 is that you've got a kid to look out for; dialing back your equity exposure might add to your peace of mind a bit, especially since you've pretty much already 'won' the game. I wouldn't be in a hurry to pay off the mortgage, though I fully u...
by Independent George
Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10252
Views: 1805717

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

amitb00 wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:54 pm
Where are 100% stock folks? Also there were folks who wanted to buy if stock was not at all time high? Are they buying?
I am at 90/10. And yes, I'm still buying my Target Retirement 2050 with each paycheck.
by Independent George
Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10252
Views: 1805717

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The big question for me isn't whether or not to stay invested in stocks (I am), but how wedded I am to staying 60/40 US/International. I'm sticking it out because regardless of whether it's too much or too little, I'm pretty sure that panicking is the worst idea of all.
by Independent George
Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10252
Views: 1805717

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Investing in stocks seems so weird. You have to expect to lose a bunch of money periodically, and that this is a good thing and not a bad thing because you can buy even more at lower prices and that the stock market is just joining AA to correct it's excesses and become a better person. It's like e...
by Independent George
Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10252
Views: 1805717

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

2018 is going to be my first negative year since I graduated from college (besides 2008 of course, but I had no money in 2008 :wink: ). Not only that, having bought a house this year and had the requisite inordinate amount of expenses that comes with that and my first year ever getting no bonus at ...
by Independent George
Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: In Grad school but work at a hotel which likely will be my career. Retirement?
Replies: 37
Views: 4552

Re: In Grad school but work at a hotel which likely will be my career. Retirement?

To the OP: 1. As a general rule, Bogleheads believe that an emergency fund and paying off high-interest debt takes precedence over retirement savings. In your particular situation, saving enough to live on your own (including eventually building an emergency fund) comes first. 2. Corrollary to #1: D...
by Independent George
Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10252
Views: 1805717

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Agree completely. I am 80/20 and am still a little annoyed that I have so many bonds right now. But I can't put more into stocks, because i haven't hit my mandated IPS rebalance of 5% Well, I do intend to keep adding 1-2% bonds every year from now until I retire, as per my intended AA. If stocks co...
by Independent George
Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10252
Views: 1805717

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm very curious if people who have 60% or more of their investment portfolio in common stocks are actually able to sleep well at night during times like this. I guess I can understand it if you're in your 20s or 30s and have 30-40 years of working and job income in front of you. But what about you...
by Independent George
Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New 401(k) fund allocation advice
Replies: 6
Views: 544

Re: New 401(k) fund allocation advice

I don't think it's worth the hassle of trying to reinvent the Total Market Index; just go 100% into Target Retirement 20XX and forget about it.
by Independent George
Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you all staying the course?
Replies: 114
Views: 7437

Re: Are you all staying the course?

Yep. My 401(k) is in a Target Retirement fund, so no change there other than increasing my contribution on Jan 1, and I'm sticking to my allocation for my 4-fund Roth IRA. I entered the job market during the dot com crash. I bought my condo at peak bubble 2007. I survived the 2008 crash. I have well...
by Independent George
Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10252
Views: 1805717

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

vwgrrc wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:29 pm
Here we go again - SP500 down 1.1%. Where are you people waiting for a discount...
Oh no! How will I ever cope with the pain of a 1.1% drop?!!
by Independent George
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?
Replies: 23
Views: 4211

Re: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?

So, this is basically a proposition bet for eggheads?
by Independent George
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?
Replies: 118
Views: 7624

Re: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?

I count it as % of gross because that's how I have to elect my 401(k) contributions. % of net doesn't make sense to me, as the largest part of my savings (401k and HSA) are the largest portion of what makes my paystub net in the first place. I suppose I could add that to my spreadsheet, but I don't ...
by Independent George
Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10252
Views: 1805717

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

That was sarcasm, just like the crystal ball comment. It means that the occurrence an "imminent recession" can't be known with certainty. I think you misidentified who you were replying to. Alphaless was the one who said a recession was imminent; UpperNwGuy made the crystal ball comment in response...
by Independent George
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Panic set in... now what?
Replies: 63
Views: 11161

Re: Panic set in... now what?

Would an SPIA be good for the OP in these circumstances? I know very little about them, but they seem like a good tool for the risk averse.
by Independent George
Wed Oct 31, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10252
Views: 1805717

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

nedsaid wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:08 am
That's right, I am blaming it all on the month of October.
Then, by extension, are you also blaming Pope Gregory XIII?
by Independent George
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: USPS - Informed delivery - complain on missing items?
Replies: 53
Views: 3514

Re: USPS - Informed delivery - complain on missing items?

I had a package delivery failed on Monday due to nobody being available to sign for it. The thing is, I live in a high rise with a package room staffed from 8AM to 8PM by somebody whose sole job is to sign for packages. I sent a redelivery request and an inquiry as to why they didn't get a signature...
by Independent George
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I doing well financially?
Replies: 162
Views: 12987

Re: Am I doing well financially?

I'm going to break this down a little bit. Gross Income: $232,000 401k (@6%): $13,920 Insurance: $12,000 Itemized Deduction: $24,000 AGI: $206,080 Net Taxable Income: $182,080 FICA Taxable Income: $220,000 Federal tax: $32,278 State Tax (estimated at 8%): $14,566 Est FICA: $16,830 Total Tax: $63,675...