Search found 467 matches

by Independent George
Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund people how are you feeling?
Replies: 112
Views: 12311

Re: 3 fund people how are you feeling?

My 40% International has been hard to live with the last decade (I believe it's averaged around 4% since the great crash, and has been negative YTD), but it is what it is. I didn't panic during the great crash, nor in the multiple corrections we've had since then; as long as I'm employed and running...
by Independent George
Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund people how are you feeling?
Replies: 112
Views: 12311

Re: 3 fund people how are you feeling?

I have a 4-fund portfolio (3-fund + REIT index), and I feel just fine. Why wouldn't I be? What would I do if i didn't feel fine?
by Independent George
Thu Aug 22, 2019 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12035
Views: 2047449

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

rocketsrule wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:54 am
This market right now is hilarious. Should be called the Duncan 500 considering all the yo'yo'ing
Isn't that normal, though?
by Independent George
Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12035
Views: 2047449

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Everybody keeps waiting for The Big One, like 2008. The thing is... we've actually had several corrections since the last Big One. It's not obvious from due to how it's grown since then, but we had a 15% drop from the highs in 2011, a 10% drop from 2015-2016, and then the 19% drop at the end of 2018...
by Independent George
Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you refinancing now?
Replies: 73
Views: 6794

Re: Are you refinancing now?

Well, it looks like I can't get my appraisal waived. I originally purchased at peak bubble 2007, and am hovering right around 80% LTV right now; I had hoped that having over $60k in liquid assets on a $155k mortgage balance would be enough to have it waived. I know I shouldn't get cheap over a $450 ...
by Independent George
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you refinancing now?
Replies: 73
Views: 6794

Re: Are you refinancing now?

Fingers crossed, I just got quoted 3.25% for a 15 year refi, with the monthly payment just $83 more than my current 30 years at 4.50%. The only question mark is whether I have 80% LTV (since I purchased at peak bubble 2007), but zillow puts me close enough that I should have plenty of assets to cove...
by Independent George
Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12035
Views: 2047449

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I know market timing is stupid, but I've been at my 1st job now for 1.5 years and it's felt like my portfolio has been spinning the wheels with the rest of the market. I've got a 401(k) and Roth with about even funds 85/15. Does anyone here think I need to move out of stocks until the big drop happ...
by Independent George
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anybody bought Wellington,Wellesley,LifeStra and just said the heck with the taxes or is that just dumb in taxable?
Replies: 48
Views: 3087

Re: Has anybody bought Wellington,Wellesley,LifeStra and just said the heck with the taxes or is that just dumb in taxa

I started buying Wellesley in 2010 as calculated intermediate-term gamble; my intent was to sell within 5-7 years and renovate my condo. Well, it's been 8 years now, and I have more than enough to do the intended renovations... but it turns out, I like having capital more than I like hardwood floors...
by Independent George
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: First real job 401k. Please help dissect my options :)
Replies: 14
Views: 811

Re: First real job 401k. Please help dissect my options :)

1. The account fees are very reasonable, the match is quite generous, and you have some great fund options. Congratulations! 2. Since you are just starting out, I assume you are in a low tax bracket. Consider opening a Roth IRA to get your international exposure. 3. The preferred contribution order ...
by Independent George
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: this time it's different
Replies: 92
Views: 10106

Re: this time it's different

It isn’t different. You just think it is. I'd say the opposite - it will be different, because it's always different. In the last century, we had two world wars (well, ok, the first one ended almost exactly one hundred years ago), the breakup of European colonial empires, and the rise and fall of i...
by Independent George
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard ongoing glitches, August 12-13, 2019]
Replies: 256
Views: 15396

Re: [Vanguard price glitches, incorrect market info for August 12, 2019]

There is zero reason to check your portfolio holdings daily. Normally I'd agree, but I think there is a very good reason to check on your portfolio when a known system-wide glitch has occurred - especially if, for example, you have an auto-deposit scheduled at the same time as the glitch. Even assu...
by Independent George
Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?
Replies: 70
Views: 3548

Re: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?

Wherever i look or read i see articles talking about sales explosion in electric cars all over the world. Sooner or later in the long run, this will depress oil prices. This is inevitable. If you believe 10% that oil prices will decrease big time say in 10 years, where would you invest to get the m...
by Independent George
Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12035
Views: 2047449

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I watched some of Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money” today, for the first time ever. When I tuned in, he had just started talking about the importance of indexing. He was encouraging everybody to stick to a low cost S&P500 index fund as their core holding, and that they shouldn’t be in anything but such low ...
by Independent George
Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The reasons dry powder and tactical asset allocation doesn't work
Replies: 26
Views: 3132

Re: The reasons dry powder and tactical asset allocation doesn't work

I need to learn not to click links. Even though I basically agree with the sentiments expressed, the video made me cringe because it was fundamentally a sales pitch. And I get it - sales pitches work and a lot of people need to hear that pitch, but it irritates me nonetheless. The implication there ...
by Independent George
Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Complacency
Replies: 77
Views: 6170

Re: Boglehead Complacency

Hi All, Our cherished forum is one of the best sources of stock market sentiment. Right now I'd like to point out: >> lack of anxiety despite the ~80 handles drawdown we find ourselves in. >> many threads where people are looking to increase risk, rather than make preparations for the eventual drop...
by Independent George
Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Man with flawed approach seeks alteration
Replies: 18
Views: 2213

Re: Man with flawed approach seeks alteration

venkman wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:01 pm
OP was disabled 22 years ago, at the age of 41.
Ack, sorry, I misread the OP.
by Independent George
Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Man with flawed approach seeks alteration
Replies: 18
Views: 2213

Re: Man with flawed approach seeks alteration

I don't know how this would work with RMD's from an inherited IRA, but you might consider putting the $75k into a SPIA (single premium immediate annuity). It would give you guaranteed income for life (a bit under $400/month for a 63-year-old male), which will probably be more than what you're drawi...
by Independent George
Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 59053

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

I think we're missing the obvious: it is exactly midway between 100/0 and 60/40, so anyone on an age-adjusted glide path will inevitably cross 80/20 at some point.

All these years later, and the mean value theorem is still stuck in my brain...
by Independent George
Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Are Usually Wrong. A NYT Columnist (Finally) Admits He's One of Them.
Replies: 53
Views: 7054

Re: Investors Are Usually Wrong. A NYT Columnist (Finally) Admits He's One of Them.

Not sure why there is such a negative reaction to this article. We all think we’re great at investing, but statistics show the opposite. Gallup found that only 1/3 of working adults thought that social security would be a major part of their retirement income. Yet about 2/3 of retirees depend on so...
by Independent George
Wed Jul 24, 2019 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bucket Approach
Replies: 74
Views: 6030

Re: The Bucket Approach

How should an average investor determine their appropriate AA? Where do they start? Is it an arbitrary 60/40, 70/30? Is it a tried and true glide path from Targeted Date retirement funds? How does one know the perfect AA and stick to it? How are those questions any different from what you have whil...
by Independent George
Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bucket Approach
Replies: 74
Views: 6030

Re: The Bucket Approach

I think the main benefit of the bucket approach is that it's a means of behavioral hacking for people who don't think in terms of AA and rebalancing. I think the big drawback is that it really doesn't mitigate risks in a meaningful way, and it's actually way more complicated than just sticking to yo...
by Independent George
Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 28683

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

myleaf wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:41 pm
The average of 1.7M is a bit misleading.
It's extremely misleading, and not the least bit useful. That number only has meaning in the context of the age of the respondent, their current assets, and their expected cost of living. Taken in isolation, it is not only misleading, but meaningless.
by Independent George
Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 28683

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

Does anyone have a link to the actual survey results? I don't see it on the Schwab website; it's hard to make a substantive comment without seeing what was actually surveyed.

ETA: Nevermind, I see it posted above.
by Independent George
Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 28683

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

I experience a mixture of disgust and laughter at those threads, but the source of those folks angst appears to be concern about maintaining their, relatively speaking, very expensive lifestyle. They often live in VHCOL areas, spend with little concern, and the thought of having an income 'only' so...
by Independent George
Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 28683

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

It's hard to understand that number without any context - is it scaled for age and COL? If I wanted to retire tomorrow at age $42, I'd want at least 2M in assets, and preferably more. If we're talking age 65, I think I could manage with $900k in current dollars and a paid-off mortgage in my current ...
by Independent George
Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you brace for impact?
Replies: 65
Views: 6085

Re: How do you brace for impact?

You don't brace for impact - you roll with it.

Live below your means, keep some cash tucked away for emergencies, and rebalance when your AA is out of line. You know - exactly what you're doing now.
by Independent George
Sat Jul 06, 2019 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Banking for Nomads
Replies: 28
Views: 2999

Re: Banking for Nomads

I will echo the recommendation for Schwab. I originally joined because their investor checking account paid 1% interest; I stayed because they refund ATM fees (even though I rarely use cash anymore, it's still nice to be able to withdraw anywhere without thinking about fees).
by Independent George
Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good times: 2008 vs Now
Replies: 145
Views: 15194

Re: Good times: 2008 vs Now

1) Average American save less than 5% of their gross income. 2) Average American buy the house at 3 or more times their gross income. You are describing a normal American behavior. We are the weird one. I actually bought my home in 2007 at 4.5x my gross income, because (1) I assumed my income would...
by Independent George
Fri Jun 28, 2019 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What lifestyle creep made you happier?
Replies: 412
Views: 45544

Re: What lifestyle creep made you happier?

DarnToughSocks. They have socks high as $35. I stick with $22-$28. I'm sorry for bringing up a point from six months ago, but... I can't resist bragging. I, too, am a fan of DarnTough socks, but my last purchase was made at $16.46 each when Backcountry had them on sale 25% off, which miraculously c...
by Independent George
Fri Jun 28, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house for Mom - Pros, cons, pitfalls?.
Replies: 55
Views: 3678

Re: Buying a house for Mom - Pros, cons, pitfalls?.

I had the bright idea to buy a house for Mom (my MIL), with the main objective being to stabilize her living expenses. She has “ enough” to live now, but she rents. After FIL passes, she’ll be living on SS only (she is about 70 y.o.), and this concerns us greatly. SIL maybe will care for her (move ...
by Independent George
Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retired: Don't want to outlive my funds
Replies: 65
Views: 8089

Re: Retired: Don't want to outlive my funds

Have you considered an SPIA (single premium immediate annuity) as an alternative to CDs? They are subject to inflation risk, but so are long-term CDs, and typically pay a better rate. $250k in an annuityshould easily cover the $8k shortfall while leaving you with plenty to put into TIPS. Given your ...
by Independent George
Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I buy a condo in Chicago?
Replies: 52
Views: 5579

Re: Should I buy a condo in Chicago?

Regardless if Chicagoland is the 3rd or 4rth largest metro area, I stand by my statement, it may not be the best real estate market, but it is very affordable compared to the coasts, and it ain't going nowhere and is not 'the next Detroit or Youngstown, OH' The trend has been towards a declining po...
by Independent George
Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt
Replies: 148
Views: 8821

Re: Dave Ramsey says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt

The 'psychological effect' is having more of your income/assets available for your goals vs for creditors. (For DR this is the 'Financial Peace' feeling) Sticking money into an account that cannot be touched until one turns 60 isn't going to give that effect for someone until maybe their mid 50s. I...
by Independent George
Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt
Replies: 148
Views: 8821

Re: Dave Ramsey says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt

So instead of focusing solely on the psychological effects of paying off debt, think of the psychological boost of growing your 401(k). If it were that easy for them, would they be that deep in debt to begin with? Prescribing the mathematically correct solution while ignoring the messy realities of...
by Independent George
Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt
Replies: 148
Views: 8821

Re: Dave Ramsey says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:09 am
You don't hear "Hey Dave, net worth $3 mil, no debt, drive a 12 year old Corolla, paid off house worth $400k etc. etc." like you do here. Different solutions for different problems.
Whereas we routinely have people humblebragging about being worried over their $5M portfolio.
by Independent George
Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 401k's limit investment options?
Replies: 30
Views: 2291

Re: Why do 401k's limit investment options?

I find it monumentally annoying to see plan after plan with these obscene fees and rubbish choices. The great irony in their idea that limiting choices reduces bad incomes. Is well, there was already a vehicle that prevented that and that was namely pensions. So if those have largely gone the way o...
by Independent George
Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt
Replies: 148
Views: 8821

Re: Dave Ramsey now says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt

I know the owner of a small business, maybe 100 employees. He says that only 10 percent of the employees in this business take advantage of the 401K matching. If that is true then that is crazy. Until just now and this thread every thing I have ever heard or read says that you should take advantage...
by Independent George
Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt
Replies: 148
Views: 8821

Re: Dave Ramsey now says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt

For those who didn't click the link, here's what he actually said: I understand how important it is to take the match in a situation like that, but one of the things I’ve learned over the years is that personal finance is 80 percent behavior and only 20 percent head knowledge. In the short term, the...
by Independent George
Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt
Replies: 148
Views: 8821

Re: Dave Ramsey now says to give up employer 401K match to pay down debt

It depends on context - Bogleheads are a distinct minority in the population, and behavioral hacking is sometimes better for people than what the spreadsheets say. The psychological burden of being deeply indebted often has detrimental effects on behavior - worse performance on the job, alcohol abus...
by Independent George
Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I buy a condo in Chicago?
Replies: 52
Views: 5579

Re: Should I buy a condo in Chicago?

Yup - I'm another Chicagoan who is rather bearish on Chicago real estate. Maybe that means it's the right time to buy cheap, but the finances and demographic trends are not rosy. God might not be making any more land, but having fewer people with less money around amounts to the same thing. That sai...
by Independent George
Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 401k's limit investment options?
Replies: 30
Views: 2291

Re: Why do 401k's limit investment options?

401k providers are determined by HR departments who often have little understanding of finance and investments. They often choose the lowest cost option, who often attain that low cost by being paid fees from higher cost funds; the actual costs of the plan get passed on to the employees rather than ...
by Independent George
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rare Earth Metals - Investing
Replies: 13
Views: 1563

Re: Rare Earth Metals - Investing

Of course you are correct about Thorium in all respects except the environmental rules regarding its disposal. The government regulates disposal as if it were the most evil substance known, which greatly increases the cost of disposal for no rational reason. Yup. Best of all, pretty much everybody ...
by Independent George
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rare Earth Metals - Investing
Replies: 13
Views: 1563

Re: Rare Earth Metals - Investing

The real problem is that rare earths are not really rare. Production in China is less expensive than in the US mostly because of environmental laws, complicated by the fact that Thorium, a radioactive element, is found with rare earths. There are numerous well-established deposits around the world....
by Independent George
Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good times: 2008 vs Now
Replies: 145
Views: 15194

Re: Good times: 2008 vs Now

My biggest worry in 2008 wasn't the value of my stock portfolio, but my job security and income. I was 31 years old, and even then understood that even a 50% drop in my portfolio (and a negative net worth due to my suddenly underwater mortgage) were things that could be overcome. The much bigger que...
by Independent George
Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1506
Views: 148856

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

If stock rallies are this dependent on the Fed, doesn't this imply that the underlying economy is actually kind of fragile, and that maybe the outlook is in fact not so good? Or is this just my instinctive pessimism trying to rain upon the parade?
by Independent George
Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12035
Views: 2047449

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

So... I've been on vacation the last couple weeks. What did I miss?
by Independent George
Thu May 30, 2019 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12035
Views: 2047449

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Then can you explain how you are getting relief and feel you can now relax from the recent "drop" ? Because I don't actually care what the bottom is, or how long we will remain there; I know I've got another 20+ years to work regardless. If it drops another 15% (or more) and puts us into an 'offici...
by Independent George
Thu May 30, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12035
Views: 2047449

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Relief that the crash has already happened and we can now relax seems like a really odd reaction to a 5% drop from the peak. I don't think you quite understand what a crash really feels like. Well, sure, aside from entering the job market during the dot com crash, signing a mortgage in 2007 and the...
by Independent George
Wed May 29, 2019 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12035
Views: 2047449

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I know I'm weird, but I always feel relieved when the market goes down. It like what Hitchcock said about suspense - there is no terror in a gunshot, only in its anticipation. Back when the S&P was above 2900, I kept thinking about how much the next crash was going to hurt; now that we've dropped, I...
by Independent George
Sun May 19, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 15134

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

I think FIRE is an admirable goal, and I respect the folks with the discipline to accomplish it. My main problem with FIRE as reported by the media (and, to some extent, from the blogs, too) is that most of the people attempting it are simply not realistic about it, and rather than being confronted ...