Search found 836 matches

by NMJack
Fri Aug 19, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 12257

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

Engineer250 wrote: 1) Dry powder
-if the stock market drops you have nothing to rebalance, having bonds as a % let's you potentially buy more stock at low prices if the price drops enough, depending on what your rebalance bands are. If you cash set aside for this purpose, I would argue you are not 100% equities either. The money effects of dry powder are probably minimal, but the psychological effects are powerful.
For many who are younger, their "dry powder" is the money that goes into their 401k out of every paycheck (and also the money they put into their IRA every January).
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 80
Views: 23403

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

I am stating that with 90% stock close to or in retirement you're likely to be fine, yes. In fact, you're likely to be better off because on average you would have generated higher returns across your investing life that would overcome short term losses. MrKnight - very well put. Either nobody "gets this" or they just don't want to admit it. That's why I recommend that young, stable income readers go 100% equities and just keep plowing it in come H*ll or high water. DCA and time will cover any bad timing that the market might throw at them later in life. It just baffles me when otherwise knowledgeable folks drop in and recommend that a 40 year old holds 40% (or more) in bonds. That will guarantee that most will need to work years...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rollover IRA asset protection?
Replies: 11
Views: 1531

Re: Rollover IRA asset protection?

For people who have substantial assets in 401(k)plans (and unclear whether this applies to 403(b)) they can leave them to nonspousal heirs and keep the asset protection. That is a major argument against rolling over such plan assets to an IRA. Again, assuming I follow this. It also makes the trust maneuver to protect the assets much less important. Does the 401k plan need to allow that? My megacorp plan requires full payout/rollover upon death of the participant. Kind of negates relying on the 401K to provide any reliable asset protection. Example: I leave everything in 401K for asset protection. Die in a car accident (me driving) and my estate gets sued for a bazillion dollars. Oops, the money just got forced out of the 401k and is fair g...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rollover IRA asset protection?
Replies: 11
Views: 1531

Re: Rollover IRA asset protection?

The reason it is confusing is there are several different levels of asset protection; federal creditor, federal bankruptcy (two levels), state creditor, state bankruptcy. Here is my attempt at a summary. If you want a complete legal analysis, see: Protection of IRA & Qualified Retirement Plan AssetsAfter Clark v. Rameker 401k: unlimited federal bankruptcy protection, unlimited federal creditor protection. Rollover IRA (qualified rollover funds only): unlimited federal bankruptcy protection, creditor protection subject to state law. A minority (~= 10% IRA, ~- 20% Roth IRA) states (including CA) have very poor protection. IRA: $1M (as of 2005 + inflation) federal bankruptcy protection, possible better state bankruptcy protection on feder...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trust, low income -- should Roth IRA be first priority?
Replies: 15
Views: 1609

Re: Trust, low income -- should Roth IRA be first priority?

NancyABQ wrote:

I don't know if it would have been possible to have the IRA beneficiary be the trust, but that isn't how it was set up. The reality is the new owner of the inherited IRA is my sister, not the trust, in this case.
My mistake. I misread the OP. That said, the only meaningful difference between a conduit trust and the IRA being inherited outright may be the ability of a trust to "force" a stretch payout. Asset protection is not strong with a conduit trust.
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 80
Views: 23403

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

I am stating that with 90% stock close to or in retirement you're likely to be fine, yes. In fact, you're likely to be better off because on average you would have generated higher returns across your investing life that would overcome short term losses. MrKnight - very well put. Either nobody "gets this" or they just don't want to admit it. That's why I recommend that young, stable income readers go 100% equities and just keep plowing it in come H*ll or high water. DCA and time will cover any bad timing that the market might throw at them later in life. It just baffles me when otherwise knowledgeable folks drop in and recommend that a 40 year old holds 40% (or more) in bonds. That will guarantee that most will need to work years...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth, Value or Both?
Replies: 19
Views: 2626

Re: Growth, Value or Both?

Very nice Taylor! I'm sure I could tilt / skew / time / adjust / tweak / research / read / debate / etc. OTOH, I choose TSM and watching some football. 8-)
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trust, low income -- should Roth IRA be first priority?
Replies: 15
Views: 1609

Re: Trust, low income -- should Roth IRA be first priority?

Dottie57 wrote: This is from someone who doesn't understand trusts. Why is the income generated ao low. 12000/900000 is about 1.5 %.
It seems like she could have a much better life with better generation of cash.
Probably ultra-conservative and/or high ER investments?
Dottie57 wrote:
Also why the concern for low income programs when there is a 900,000 trust in place?
I would guess preservation of capital. $900K sounds like a lot until somebody enters LTC for an extended period.

Hopefully the OP will clarify.
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trust, low income -- should Roth IRA be first priority?
Replies: 15
Views: 1609

Re: Trust, low income -- should Roth IRA be first priority?

The main goal of the trust is to protect her assets for a couple reasons: 1) In case she needed to qualify for low income programs where assets would count against her eligibility 2) possible spendthrift boyfriend. My sister has always been responsible with her finances. If IRA assets count against her eligibility for something, the inherited IRA is now a significant asset. The additional Roth assets wouldn't change any eligibility concerns in a significant way as far as I can see. While the IRA is a significant asset, it is likely not "owned" by your sister (probably owned by the trust unless poorly written). I'm guessing that this is a conduit trust, which requires the RMDs to be distributed directly to the beneficiary each yea...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you know if you're taking on too much risk?
Replies: 14
Views: 2216

Re: How do you know if you're taking on too much risk?

I used this tool to assess my risk tolerance: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio Plug in a portfolio you are considering and look at it's performance during the years 2007-2009. Look at the monthly returns and watch your imaginary money drop each month until the bottom in February 2009. How would you feel? Keep trying different percentage until you find one you feel you could stick with during that period. For instance, a 50% stock/50% bond 3 fund portfolio (total US stock, total Int'l stock, total bond) fell over 25% at one point, while a 25% stock/75% bond 3 fund portfolio fell about 11% at it's worst. This is not bad advice, but it simply doesn't compare to living the real thing. Not only did I ride 100% equities thr...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 80
Views: 23403

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/06/warren-buffetts-15-minute-retirement-plan.aspx My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard's. (NASDAQMUTFUND:VFINX)) I believe the trust's long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors -- whether pension funds, institutions, or individuals -- who employ high-fee managers. We've discussed this quote before. "Advice to the trustee," has little meaning under the law. An independent trustee will be bound by his state's prudent investor rules unless the trust document specifically overrides them. Since 90/10 would not ...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rollover IRA asset protection?
Replies: 11
Views: 1531

Re: Rollover IRA asset protection?

afan wrote:NMJack,
Still hoping one of our experts will chime in.
Me too!
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Distributing assets and trustee fee calculations
Replies: 7
Views: 1113

Re: Distributing assets and trustee fee calculations

I can't be understanding this correctly. The OP seems to indicate that somebody is going to be paid a 46% fee to close out a $50,000 trust. What am I missing? :confused
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gifting whole estate in life
Replies: 77
Views: 7047

Re: Gifting whole estate in life

Still on the legal obligation part, not having any experience with this made me think a trust had to be somewhat specific as to the wishes of the donor. Jack's idea of what to do with the money is basically "You take care of me first and do what you please with the rest. It's your money." After reading some of the responses here, it's now clearer to me that a specialized lawyer and financial team would be able to put those wishes on a trust document. I don't think this is as complicated as you're making it out to be. There is likely no need for a "financial team." Just a competent estate attorney who can capture Jack's clear desires. Since Jack seems willing to give you significant control of the assets both during and ...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rollover IRA asset protection?
Replies: 11
Views: 1531

Re: Rollover IRA asset protection?

Excellent question afan. I've been seeking conclusive answers for this for quite a while. What seems clear: 401k money: heavily protected by ERISA (accessible only for divorce, child support, IRS) Contributory trad and Roth IRA funds: protected only by state law (some states provide ERISA level protection, some provide very little protection) 401k money rolled over and subsequently converted to Roth: most references suggest that this money is treated like contributory Roth money (i.e. protected only by state law) What is not clear: 401k money rolled over to a trad IRA and kept segregated: I've seen Department of Labor website references that suggest ERISA protections carry over; I've also seen statements that these funds are only protected ...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 216
Views: 21239

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

Interesting thread, although I'm still not sold on all this factor "stuff." I understand that with selective back testing, a (crappy) case can be made for many theories saying tilt to this or that and you'll beat the market. If it was that easy, wouldn't the active fund managers all be doing this?

I do find myself losing interest and asking the question "so why can't I just leave everything in TSM and go enjoy life?" :confused
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Joint Accounts - How do you use it?
Replies: 103
Views: 12061

Re: Joint Accounts - How do you use it?

Let's read between the many lines in this thread. I'm seeing something along the lines of "people who have long successful marriages share everything equally and don't have a need for separate accounts." Did I miss something/anything? :confused (30+ years, never would consider/risk/expect separate anything)

As for "no questions asked." Yikes. :oops: :annoyed
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 12703

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

soboggled wrote: We resist because it is hard to accept that fact and the fact of our own mortality.
Hopefully you realize that you are speaking only for yourself with comments such as this. There are many of us for whom life has fully made us aware of our own mortality. If your life hasn't thus far, then consider yourself fortunate (or maybe not.. :confused ).
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 12703

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

it's like you buy house fire insurance and you didn't have a major fire, was that a waste? did you "gamble" and lose?. There's a big difference here. If I don't buy fire insurance, and a fire happens, I've lost a ton of money. If I don't buy a long term annuity, and I "live," I can still buy an annuity. How can I lose money by NOT buying an annuity? :confused Granted, I could wait too long and exhaust most of my assets, so that I can no longer afford an annuity; but that argues (along with many here), for simply waiting until 70 - 80 to buy the annuity (when it will be MUCH cheaper and likely a better value because of higher interest rates). This whole thread sounds like a sales pitch for the annuity sellers. If you can...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 12703

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

The protection afforded by the state guaranty associations is not a "guarantee," not is it "insurance," because there is no specific promise about what, exactly , the guaranty association will do. Each insolvency is handled case-by-case and the laws (doubtless written by the insurers) give them a lot of scope. There are things in it like what someone referred to as the "Moody's cramdown provision," which says basically that if the insurance you bought was too good--had too high a payout--if the insurer becomes insolvent, the association is not required to restore the full amount that was promised. The rules for how much is covered are tricky; there is an aggregate cap as well as a per-insured-life cap. The gua...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 12703

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

WasabiOsbourne wrote:it's like you buy house fire insurance and you didn't have a major fire, was that a waste? did you "gamble" and lose?.
There's a big difference here. If I don't buy fire insurance, and a fire happens, I've lost a ton of money. If I don't buy a long term annuity, and I "live," I can still buy an annuity. How can I lose money by NOT buying an annuity? :confused

Granted, I could wait too long and exhaust most of my assets, so that I can no longer afford an annuity; but that argues (along with many here), for simply waiting until 70 - 80 to buy the annuity (when it will be MUCH cheaper and likely a better value because of higher interest rates). This whole thread sounds like a sales pitch for the annuity sellers.
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 12703

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

Kevin M wrote: While people tend to downplay these kinds of deep risks, Larry reminds us not to confuse the improbable with the impossible. Any comment on this particular risk, Larry?

Kevin
I'm sure all the annuity holders will get their money..... Right after the state pays all of their employee pension obligations!! :twisted: :annoyed
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: True state of retirees and course of action
Replies: 29
Views: 5074

Re: True state of retirees and course of action

I don't like my current job too much and sometimes think of early retirement and doing something else, but am not able to pull the trigger. Should that even be considered an option for somebody in my situation ? I'm old school (probably because I am old), but "liking my job" was never much of a criteria or expectation for me. In every job I've ever had, I have been able to find "something to like," but in aggregate; if it pays well and has good benefits it probably also includes some combination of hard work/long hours/crap from above/etc. I came to grips with this early on (a side benefit from having to work crappy jobs in high school to buy a car), and never wasted much time wondering if my job was keeping me happy en...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle's Folly now worth $3,500,000,000,000
Replies: 12
Views: 3484

Re: Bogle's Folly now worth $3,500,000,000,000

mickeyd wrote:delete
Mickeyd - fyi - you can edit the thread title by editing your first post in the thread.
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity ERISA lawsuit over 401k brokerage option
Replies: 15
Views: 1995

Re: Fidelity ERISA lawsuit over 401k brokerage option

livesoft wrote: The lawsuit complained that Fidelity did have Financial Engines (FE) provide fiduciary advice to the folks in the Delta plan if they wanted it, but that Fidelity got a kickback or pay-to-play from FE for the fees paid by participants.
I wasn't following this until you mentioned "FE." :annoyed
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 12703

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

Since interest rates are at record lows, isn't it reasonable to assume that this is that absolute worst time to buy an annuity that we don't need for many years? The insurance companies are better at figuring all this out than anybody else. If an academic is really top notch, some insurance company will likely hire them for 3 to 4 times what they can make in the "thinking world." I am not swayed, and if I ever do buy an annuity, it will be one or more SPIAs for myself/spouse at such time that it becomes "safer" than continuing to manage our own investments. I don't believe that the annuity landscape is a "puzzle." I think there are "good" annuities (SPIA) and an ever increasing universe of "creat...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing
Replies: 28
Views: 4678

Re: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing

... Most of that -.24% negative yield is the .20% ER. Perhaps better to just buy TIPS at auction. The 5 year is currently yielding -.16% and the 10 year is at +.10%. I'm afraid not. SEC yields are quoted net of expense ratio. You can see the effect if you look at different share classes of the same fund. For example, compare Vanguard's Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares , VBMFX, with an ER of 0.16%, and SEC Yield 1.77%, to the fund's Admiral Shares , VBTLX, an ownership stake in the very same collection of bonds, with ER 0.06% and SEC Yield 1.86%. ER difference: 0.10% SEC Yield difference: 0.09% One part in ten thousand is within the rounding error inherent in using four decimal places. You may or may not wish to suggest buying T...
by NMJack
Fri Aug 12, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing
Replies: 28
Views: 4678

Re: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote: Vanguard's Inflation-Protected Securities Fund, VIPSX, and Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index Fund, VTIPX, have negative real yields, which is to say, they'll fall 0.24% and 0.59% behind inflation, respectively.

There are plenty of situations in which it might be better, for an individual or institution, to take a sure-thing -0.24% real over a period of several years, than to risk much worse after-inflation results from nominal bond funds.

PJW
Most of that -.24% negative yield is the .20% ER. Perhaps better to just buy TIPS at auction. The 5 year is currently yielding -.16% and the 10 year is at +.10%.
by NMJack
Fri Aug 12, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads: Asset-Allocation and Rebalancing
Replies: 74
Views: 10023

Re: Bogleheads: Asset-Allocation and Rebalancing

malabargold wrote:Sticking with 95+ % stocks, I just don't care if my
holdings get whacked by 50% or more.
Bring it on.
More buying opportunities!
:beer
by NMJack
Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 6457

Re: Why stay-the-course

Taylor Larimore wrote:
I would want to know more of why staying the course is not a bad idea.
MIpreRetirey:

Perhaps my experience will answer your question:

I started investing in 1950 when the S&P 500 Index was under 20. Today it is 2185 (not including dividends). Had I stayed-the-course I would be much wealthier today.

Best wishes.
Taylor
In other words..... Just follow Warren Buffet's advice. Put 100% in S&P 500 and go do whatever it is you do in life. :sharebeer
by NMJack
Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 6457

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

nedsaid wrote:
NMJack wrote:
nedsaid wrote:
The concept of dispersion of returns around a mean
Historical performance does not indicate future returns. People don't really want to accept this, so they come up with forecasts that allow for "dispersion of returns around a mean." Same thing as saying "here is my forecast, but you need to allow for a dispersion of returns around a mean so that even if I am wrong, I wasn't really wrong." Some would interpret that as "you don't really know anything." :annoyed
Cheap still beats expensive long term. Thanks for your comments.
Yep. But who the heck can tell us what is "cheap?" I'm not asking who can tell us what might be cheap....
by NMJack
Thu Aug 11, 2016 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 6457

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

nedsaid wrote:
The concept of dispersion of returns around a mean
Historical performance does not indicate future returns. People don't really want to accept this, so they come up with forecasts that allow for "dispersion of returns around a mean." Same thing as saying "here is my forecast, but you need to allow for a dispersion of returns around a mean so that even if I am wrong, I wasn't really wrong." Some would interpret that as "you don't really know anything." :annoyed
by NMJack
Thu Aug 11, 2016 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 6457

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

If a person has been maintaining a fixed AA for the past 5, 10, etc. years, then they have already been pulling money out of stocks and buying bonds. That is part of a fixed AA approach. Stocks (and sometimes valuations) go up, investor liquidates stocks and buys fixed income. When stocks drop (or severely underperform, possibly due to valuation RTM), investor buys more stocks. Why would investor want to muck with his long term AA solely because of this vague and simplistic concept of "valuations?" :confused
by NMJack
Sun Aug 07, 2016 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 164289

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

The key quote to me from Larry's article is: "Common sense, which is all-too-uncommon, should lead you to conclude that this isn’t logical. Higher prices paid for the same dollar of earnings should lead one to forecast lower, not higher, returns. He mentions common sense and logic and then immediately violates both. His quote should likely read "Higher prices paid for the same dollar of PAST earnings should lead one to forecast lower, not higher, returns. The P/E is entirely in the past. Adding the word "past" destroys the argument. Why do we just rule out the possibility that the person on the buying side of the equation has good, factual basis for deciding that buying at today's prices will provide excellent returns g...
by NMJack
Sun Aug 07, 2016 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???
Replies: 40
Views: 13980

Re: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???

CppCoder wrote:
Anyone have a comment based on experience?

Edit: NMJack, you read my mind :shock:
Last year I made a single purchase through my Fido after-tax account just to see how the process worked. I bought a single $1000 treasury (90 day) through a non-competitive bid. It was extremely simple. The purchase settled, sat in my account for 90 days, matured and paid out. (I think I earned a nickle in interest!)

Very easy process and one I will likely use a lot in the future when my retirement AA kicks in and I want to build a treasury foundation. Hopefully TIPS will start paying a little more in the next several years.
by NMJack
Sun Aug 07, 2016 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: unexpected accelerated retirement (next week), checklist?
Replies: 25
Views: 3507

Re: unexpected accelerated retirement (next week), checklist?

You may wish to read the following article regarding creditor protection for 401k funds that are rolled over to an IRA:

https://www.irahelp.com/slottreport/how ... oll-it-ira

It sounds like in most states, there isn't a concern; however you will likely want to check your state's laws before doing anything.
by NMJack
Sun Aug 07, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???
Replies: 40
Views: 13980

Re: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???

You can buy them directly through a Fidelity brokerage account, no fees, and set them up to repurchase automatically when they mature. Same with TIPS except I don't believe you can set those to auto repurchase.
by NMJack
Sun Aug 07, 2016 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?
Replies: 50
Views: 9728

Re: Flight to Safety.

Engineer250 wrote: I'll likely move to 10% in a month or so. I suppose now someone will quote this and tell me I was wrong to move away from my prior AA :D
If you're young and have a good job, you're wrong to move out of 100% equities. 8-)
by NMJack
Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to deal with situation .Need Career advice PLZ !-Experienced Professionals !!
Replies: 34
Views: 4643

Re: How to deal with situation .Need Career advice PLZ !- Calling Experienced Professionals !!

A steady paycheck is gold. If you don't have one, get one if at all possible. If it means losing vacation, a possible raise, seniority, blah, blah, blah;.... so what? Once you have one, then work on getting a better one (if possible). :sharebeer
by NMJack
Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 30198

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

That is, a "soft" science. That right there is what we call an "oxy-moron." :D Good discussion, but nothing that is causing me to change any plans. These types of threads aren't much different than the noise from the TV saying silly things like "sell everything." I couldn't disagree more. If you view this thread as "noise" than you must not be following the discussion closely. I won't pretend to perfectly understand every detail that's been discussed, but do view threads like these a a perfect anecdote to my own confirmation bias. Much appreciation to Larry for his continued explanations and to all who participated. I consider it noise because I don't see any meaningful outputs that would lead me to ...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 06, 2016 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taking profit off table
Replies: 6
Views: 1399

Re: Taking profit off table

Do you periodically rebalance your portfolio? If so, doesn't that mean you are already "taking profit off the table?"
by NMJack
Sat Aug 06, 2016 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 21871

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

nedsaid wrote: Remember that Mr. Bogle talks a lot about reversion to the mean. That implies pretty strongly that valuations are important, if they weren't, there would be nothing to revert back to.
When P/E has drifted higher than the mean, there are two ways to revert to mean. Prices will drop or earnings will rise. This is just math. A high market P/E suggests that the aggregate investment community has voted that earnings will be strong, not that prices will drop.
by NMJack
Sat Aug 06, 2016 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living Trust vs Transfer on Death
Replies: 61
Views: 16050

Re: Living Trust vs Transfer on Death

My Grandmother recently passed and my grandfather (step grandfather) has kids (3) on his side and as do my gma (3). None of the kids were conceived during marrriage. The house, by law was left my step grandfather under joint tendency. My step grandfather is now aging and has recently said that he will leave the house to all kids and have it spelled out in his will. However, virgina law states that if the surviving spouse dies, then the house is passed to his kids and not my grandmothers kids. My question is this... If he adds how he wants the home to be divided in his will, will that suffice? Is it suggested we get a Transfer on Death Deed and list one beneficiary from each side? Will the TODD supersede the Will? I would think that a benef...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 06, 2016 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living Trust vs Transfer on Death
Replies: 61
Views: 16050

Re: Living Trust vs Transfer on Death

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't a Trust need to be funded for it to become effective? If you create a living trust, don't fund it by re-titling your assets, what then? Worthless. You just wasted paying for the trust. I believe that you are mostly correct, but there may be situations where delayed funding may have some positive implications. My primary after-tax assets are a home and brokerage account that are both registered as JWROS. Since I am in a community property state, both of these qualify for a step up basis upon the death of the first spouse. If I set up an unfunded joint simple living trust, and subsequently die, my surviving spouse can then retitle the assets to the trust but, if she later needs/desires to sell the assets,...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 06, 2016 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 30198

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

professionals practitioners academics academic papers surveys of individual investors These are all terms that may not be helping your case Larry. If this were science, some would carry a lot of weight. This ain't science. :sharebeer That is, a "soft" science. That right there is what we call an "oxy-moron." :D Good discussion, but nothing that is causing me to change any plans. These types of threads aren't much different than the noise from the TV saying silly things like "sell everything." I couldn't disagree more. If you view this thread as "noise" than you must not be following the discussion closely. I won't pretend to perfectly understand every detail that's been discussed, but do view threads...
by NMJack
Fri Aug 05, 2016 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 30198

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

lack_ey wrote:
NMJack wrote:
larryswedroe wrote: professionals
practitioners
academics
academic papers
surveys of individual investors
These are all terms that may not be helping your case Larry. If this were science, some would carry a lot of weight. This ain't science. :sharebeer
That is, a "soft" science.
That right there is what we call an "oxy-moron." :D

Good discussion, but nothing that is causing me to change any plans. These types of threads aren't much different than the noise from the TV saying silly things like "sell everything."
by NMJack
Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 30198

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

You earlier asked, "Why in the world would you [I forget who this was addressed to, but doesn't matter] think valuations are going to just stay at 26.83 for the next 30 years, when the stock market has never behaved that way in the past?" Earlier I interpreted the statement to mean that you had a better estimate less likely to be as wrong by as much (that is, you disagree with the figure of 26.83 as the best estimate). That is, that you understood everything in the next paragraph. But now you say that's not true. If you don't have a better estimate then what are you disagreeing with and so surprised about? I would rather have no number than a silly, useless number. This whole situation is strange and not typical for how BH's tend...
by NMJack
Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 30198

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

larryswedroe wrote: professionals
practitioners
academics
academic papers
surveys of individual investors
These are all terms that may not be helping your case Larry. If this were science, some would carry a lot of weight. This ain't science. :sharebeer
by NMJack
Fri Aug 05, 2016 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How soon to get HELOC after closing on mortgage refi?
Replies: 4
Views: 4974

Re: How soon to get HELOC after closing on mortgage refi?

I was in a similar situation 15 years ago. I refinanced, paid off an outstanding HELOC and opened a new HELOC (with the same firm issuing the new mortgage) all in one transaction.
by NMJack
Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 30198

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

Maybe I missed it, but if we accept the premise that real returns will be in the 4% range forever, is the recommendation that people shift their AA more towards equities? Or, is it just to save/work more?