Search found 836 matches

by NMJack
Fri Aug 19, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 11004

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

1) Dry powder -if the stock market drops you have nothing to rebalance, having bonds as a % let's you potentially buy more stock at low prices if the price drops enough, depending on what your rebalance bands are. If you cash set aside for this purpose, I would argue you are not 100% equities eithe...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 80
Views: 22221

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

I am stating that with 90% stock close to or in retirement you're likely to be fine, yes. In fact, you're likely to be better off because on average you would have generated higher returns across your investing life that would overcome short term losses. MrKnight - very well put. Either nobody "get...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rollover IRA asset protection?
Replies: 11
Views: 1357

Re: Rollover IRA asset protection?

For people who have substantial assets in 401(k)plans (and unclear whether this applies to 403(b)) they can leave them to nonspousal heirs and keep the asset protection. That is a major argument against rolling over such plan assets to an IRA. Again, assuming I follow this. It also makes the trust ...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rollover IRA asset protection?
Replies: 11
Views: 1357

Re: Rollover IRA asset protection?

The reason it is confusing is there are several different levels of asset protection; federal creditor, federal bankruptcy (two levels), state creditor, state bankruptcy. Here is my attempt at a summary. If you want a complete legal analysis, see: Protection of IRA & Qualified Retirement Plan Asset...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trust, low income -- should Roth IRA be first priority?
Replies: 15
Views: 1458

Re: Trust, low income -- should Roth IRA be first priority?

I don't know if it would have been possible to have the IRA beneficiary be the trust, but that isn't how it was set up. The reality is the new owner of the inherited IRA is my sister, not the trust, in this case. My mistake. I misread the OP. That said, the only meaningful difference between a cond...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 80
Views: 22221

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

I am stating that with 90% stock close to or in retirement you're likely to be fine, yes. In fact, you're likely to be better off because on average you would have generated higher returns across your investing life that would overcome short term losses. MrKnight - very well put. Either nobody "get...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth, Value or Both?
Replies: 19
Views: 2319

Re: Growth, Value or Both?

Very nice Taylor! I'm sure I could tilt / skew / time / adjust / tweak / research / read / debate / etc. OTOH, I choose TSM and watching some football. 8-)
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trust, low income -- should Roth IRA be first priority?
Replies: 15
Views: 1458

Re: Trust, low income -- should Roth IRA be first priority?

This is from someone who doesn't understand trusts. Why is the income generated ao low. 12000/900000 is about 1.5 %. It seems like she could have a much better life with better generation of cash. Probably ultra-conservative and/or high ER investments? Also why the concern for low income programs w...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trust, low income -- should Roth IRA be first priority?
Replies: 15
Views: 1458

Re: Trust, low income -- should Roth IRA be first priority?

The main goal of the trust is to protect her assets for a couple reasons: 1) In case she needed to qualify for low income programs where assets would count against her eligibility 2) possible spendthrift boyfriend. My sister has always been responsible with her finances. If IRA assets count against...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you know if you're taking on too much risk?
Replies: 14
Views: 2085

Re: How do you know if you're taking on too much risk?

I used this tool to assess my risk tolerance: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio Plug in a portfolio you are considering and look at it's performance during the years 2007-2009. Look at the monthly returns and watch your imaginary money drop each month until the bottom in Februa...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 80
Views: 22221

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/06/warren-buffetts-15-minute-retirement-plan.aspx My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard's. (NASDAQMUTFUND:VFINX)) I believ...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rollover IRA asset protection?
Replies: 11
Views: 1357

Re: Rollover IRA asset protection?

afan wrote:NMJack,
Still hoping one of our experts will chime in.
Me too!
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Distributing assets and trustee fee calculations
Replies: 7
Views: 1009

Re: Distributing assets and trustee fee calculations

I can't be understanding this correctly. The OP seems to indicate that somebody is going to be paid a 46% fee to close out a $50,000 trust. What am I missing? :confused
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gifting whole estate in life
Replies: 77
Views: 6383

Re: Gifting whole estate in life

Still on the legal obligation part, not having any experience with this made me think a trust had to be somewhat specific as to the wishes of the donor. Jack's idea of what to do with the money is basically "You take care of me first and do what you please with the rest. It's your money." After rea...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rollover IRA asset protection?
Replies: 11
Views: 1357

Re: Rollover IRA asset protection?

Excellent question afan. I've been seeking conclusive answers for this for quite a while. What seems clear: 401k money: heavily protected by ERISA (accessible only for divorce, child support, IRS) Contributory trad and Roth IRA funds: protected only by state law (some states provide ERISA level prot...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 18, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 216
Views: 19048

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

Interesting thread, although I'm still not sold on all this factor "stuff." I understand that with selective back testing, a (crappy) case can be made for many theories saying tilt to this or that and you'll beat the market. If it was that easy, wouldn't the active fund managers all be doing this? I...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Joint Accounts - How do you use it?
Replies: 103
Views: 11193

Re: Joint Accounts - How do you use it?

Let's read between the many lines in this thread. I'm seeing something along the lines of "people who have long successful marriages share everything equally and don't have a need for separate accounts." Did I miss something/anything? :confused (30+ years, never would consider/risk/expect separate a...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 11518

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

We resist because it is hard to accept that fact and the fact of our own mortality. Hopefully you realize that you are speaking only for yourself with comments such as this. There are many of us for whom life has fully made us aware of our own mortality. If your life hasn't thus far, then consider ...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 11518

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

it's like you buy house fire insurance and you didn't have a major fire, was that a waste? did you "gamble" and lose?. There's a big difference here. If I don't buy fire insurance, and a fire happens, I've lost a ton of money. If I don't buy a long term annuity, and I "live," I can still buy an ann...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 11518

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

The protection afforded by the state guaranty associations is not a "guarantee," not is it "insurance," because there is no specific promise about what, exactly , the guaranty association will do. Each insolvency is handled case-by-case and the laws (doubtless written by the insurers) give them a l...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 11518

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

it's like you buy house fire insurance and you didn't have a major fire, was that a waste? did you "gamble" and lose?. There's a big difference here. If I don't buy fire insurance, and a fire happens, I've lost a ton of money. If I don't buy a long term annuity, and I "live," I can still buy an ann...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 11518

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

While people tend to downplay these kinds of deep risks, Larry reminds us not to confuse the improbable with the impossible. Any comment on this particular risk, Larry? Kevin I'm sure all the annuity holders will get their money..... Right after the state pays all of their employee pension obligati...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: True state of retirees and course of action
Replies: 29
Views: 4809

Re: True state of retirees and course of action

I don't like my current job too much and sometimes think of early retirement and doing something else, but am not able to pull the trigger. Should that even be considered an option for somebody in my situation ? I'm old school (probably because I am old), but "liking my job" was never much of a cri...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle's Folly now worth $3,500,000,000,000
Replies: 12
Views: 3333

Re: Bogle's Folly now worth $3,500,000,000,000

mickeyd wrote:delete
Mickeyd - fyi - you can edit the thread title by editing your first post in the thread.
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity ERISA lawsuit over 401k brokerage option
Replies: 15
Views: 1790

Re: Fidelity ERISA lawsuit over 401k brokerage option

livesoft wrote: The lawsuit complained that Fidelity did have Financial Engines (FE) provide fiduciary advice to the folks in the Delta plan if they wanted it, but that Fidelity got a kickback or pay-to-play from FE for the fees paid by participants.
I wasn't following this until you mentioned "FE." :annoyed
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 11518

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

Since interest rates are at record lows, isn't it reasonable to assume that this is that absolute worst time to buy an annuity that we don't need for many years? The insurance companies are better at figuring all this out than anybody else. If an academic is really top notch, some insurance company ...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 13, 2016 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing
Replies: 28
Views: 4280

Re: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing

... Most of that -.24% negative yield is the .20% ER. Perhaps better to just buy TIPS at auction. The 5 year is currently yielding -.16% and the 10 year is at +.10%. I'm afraid not. SEC yields are quoted net of expense ratio. You can see the effect if you look at different share classes of the same...
by NMJack
Fri Aug 12, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing
Replies: 28
Views: 4280

Re: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing

Vanguard's Inflation-Protected Securities Fund , VIPSX, and Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index Fund , VTIPX, have negative real yields , which is to say, they'll fall 0.24% and 0.59% behind inflation, respectively. There are plenty of situations in which it might be better, for an indi...
by NMJack
Fri Aug 12, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads: Asset-Allocation and Rebalancing
Replies: 74
Views: 9270

Re: Bogleheads: Asset-Allocation and Rebalancing

malabargold wrote:Sticking with 95+ % stocks, I just don't care if my
holdings get whacked by 50% or more.
Bring it on.
More buying opportunities!
:beer
by NMJack
Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 5941

Re: Why stay-the-course

I would want to know more of why staying the course is not a bad idea. MIpreRetirey: Perhaps my experience will answer your question: I started investing in 1950 when the S&P 500 Index was under 20. Today it is 2185 (not including dividends). Had I stayed-the-course I would be much wealthier today....
by NMJack
Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 5941

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

The concept of dispersion of returns around a mean Historical performance does not indicate future returns. People don't really want to accept this, so they come up with forecasts that allow for "dispersion of returns around a mean." Same thing as saying "here is my forecast, but you need to allow ...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 11, 2016 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 5941

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

The concept of dispersion of returns around a mean Historical performance does not indicate future returns. People don't really want to accept this, so they come up with forecasts that allow for "dispersion of returns around a mean." Same thing as saying "here is my forecast, but you need to allow ...
by NMJack
Thu Aug 11, 2016 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 5941

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

If a person has been maintaining a fixed AA for the past 5, 10, etc. years, then they have already been pulling money out of stocks and buying bonds. That is part of a fixed AA approach. Stocks (and sometimes valuations) go up, investor liquidates stocks and buys fixed income. When stocks drop (or s...
by NMJack
Sun Aug 07, 2016 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 130765

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

The key quote to me from Larry's article is: "Common sense, which is all-too-uncommon, should lead you to conclude that this isn’t logical. Higher prices paid for the same dollar of earnings should lead one to forecast lower, not higher, returns. He mentions common sense and logic and then immediat...
by NMJack
Sun Aug 07, 2016 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???
Replies: 40
Views: 12941

Re: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???

Anyone have a comment based on experience? Edit: NMJack, you read my mind :shock: Last year I made a single purchase through my Fido after-tax account just to see how the process worked. I bought a single $1000 treasury (90 day) through a non-competitive bid. It was extremely simple. The purchase s...
by NMJack
Sun Aug 07, 2016 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: unexpected accelerated retirement (next week), checklist?
Replies: 25
Views: 3349

Re: unexpected accelerated retirement (next week), checklist?

You may wish to read the following article regarding creditor protection for 401k funds that are rolled over to an IRA: https://www.irahelp.com/slottreport/how-safe-creditors-your-401k-money-if-you-roll-it-ira It sounds like in most states, there isn't a concern; however you will likely want to chec...
by NMJack
Sun Aug 07, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???
Replies: 40
Views: 12941

Re: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???

You can buy them directly through a Fidelity brokerage account, no fees, and set them up to repurchase automatically when they mature. Same with TIPS except I don't believe you can set those to auto repurchase.
by NMJack
Sun Aug 07, 2016 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?
Replies: 50
Views: 8965

Re: Flight to Safety.

Engineer250 wrote: I'll likely move to 10% in a month or so. I suppose now someone will quote this and tell me I was wrong to move away from my prior AA :D
If you're young and have a good job, you're wrong to move out of 100% equities. 8-)
by NMJack
Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to deal with situation .Need Career advice PLZ !-Experienced Professionals !!
Replies: 34
Views: 4375

Re: How to deal with situation .Need Career advice PLZ !- Calling Experienced Professionals !!

A steady paycheck is gold. If you don't have one, get one if at all possible. If it means losing vacation, a possible raise, seniority, blah, blah, blah;.... so what? Once you have one, then work on getting a better one (if possible). :sharebeer
by NMJack
Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 26998

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

That is, a "soft" science. That right there is what we call an "oxy-moron." :D Good discussion, but nothing that is causing me to change any plans. These types of threads aren't much different than the noise from the TV saying silly things like "sell everything." I couldn't disagree more. If you vi...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 06, 2016 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taking profit off table
Replies: 6
Views: 1272

Re: Taking profit off table

Do you periodically rebalance your portfolio? If so, doesn't that mean you are already "taking profit off the table?"
by NMJack
Sat Aug 06, 2016 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 20436

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

Remember that Mr. Bogle talks a lot about reversion to the mean. That implies pretty strongly that valuations are important, if they weren't, there would be nothing to revert back to. When P/E has drifted higher than the mean, there are two ways to revert to mean. Prices will drop or earnings will ...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 06, 2016 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living Trust vs Transfer on Death
Replies: 61
Views: 14537

Re: Living Trust vs Transfer on Death

My Grandmother recently passed and my grandfather (step grandfather) has kids (3) on his side and as do my gma (3). None of the kids were conceived during marrriage. The house, by law was left my step grandfather under joint tendency. My step grandfather is now aging and has recently said that he w...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 06, 2016 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living Trust vs Transfer on Death
Replies: 61
Views: 14537

Re: Living Trust vs Transfer on Death

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't a Trust need to be funded for it to become effective? If you create a living trust, don't fund it by re-titling your assets, what then? Worthless. You just wasted paying for the trust. I believe that you are mostly correct, but there may be situations where dela...
by NMJack
Sat Aug 06, 2016 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 26998

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

professionals practitioners academics academic papers surveys of individual investors These are all terms that may not be helping your case Larry. If this were science, some would carry a lot of weight. This ain't science. :sharebeer That is, a "soft" science. That right there is what we call an "o...
by NMJack
Fri Aug 05, 2016 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 26998

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

professionals practitioners academics academic papers surveys of individual investors These are all terms that may not be helping your case Larry. If this were science, some would carry a lot of weight. This ain't science. :sharebeer That is, a "soft" science. That right there is what we call an "o...
by NMJack
Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 26998

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

You earlier asked, "Why in the world would you [I forget who this was addressed to, but doesn't matter] think valuations are going to just stay at 26.83 for the next 30 years, when the stock market has never behaved that way in the past?" Earlier I interpreted the statement to mean that you had a b...
by NMJack
Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 26998

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

larryswedroe wrote: professionals
practitioners
academics
academic papers
surveys of individual investors
These are all terms that may not be helping your case Larry. If this were science, some would carry a lot of weight. This ain't science. :sharebeer
by NMJack
Fri Aug 05, 2016 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How soon to get HELOC after closing on mortgage refi?
Replies: 4
Views: 3326

Re: How soon to get HELOC after closing on mortgage refi?

I was in a similar situation 15 years ago. I refinanced, paid off an outstanding HELOC and opened a new HELOC (with the same firm issuing the new mortgage) all in one transaction.
by NMJack
Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 26998

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

Maybe I missed it, but if we accept the premise that real returns will be in the 4% range forever, is the recommendation that people shift their AA more towards equities? Or, is it just to save/work more?