Search found 153 matches

by whiteprius
Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1326
Views: 114155

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Actually there are really good reasons to not get a 2014 Model S. To get the same range, oh wait you can nothing made in 2014 has an EPA over 300 miles. The S is a lot larger. Not everyone wants a car that is physically that large. The warranty isn't as good. The positive is that supercharger use i...
by whiteprius
Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gambling vs Investing
Replies: 23
Views: 2322

Re: Gambling vs Investing

One other thing, the stock market's odds COULD be better than the odds at a roulette table (playign red or black) but I DO NOT RECOMMEND GAMBLING IN STOCKS because you don't know the odds in advance. With a roulette table it's close to 50/50 (I think 48/52) but with stocks it's UNKNOWN. If you want ...
by whiteprius
Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gambling vs Investing
Replies: 23
Views: 2322

Re: Gambling vs Investing

This is a fantastic question with serious moral implications. Some say all investing is gambling because all investing has risk but that's absolutely not true. There is a VERY EASY way to distinguish gambling from investing. If you're entering a position that you might sell in the next 30 days, you'...
by whiteprius
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 338
Views: 37973

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Don't worry pain is on the way. I don't know if it will happen this year, next year, or the year after that but the longer it takes the more painful it will be. Over the last 120 years -- the S&P 500 has always fallen or risen to a level with around a 15 P/E ratio. You don't know when it will happen...
by whiteprius
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate total return (including dividends)
Replies: 7
Views: 979

Re: How to calculate total return (including dividends)

This is a huge issue re: websites, many of which only provide price-increase return and not total return. One site that always provides total return for all mutual funds is morningstar's charting feature. Here's a chart of, e.g., the S&P 500 mutual fund's value assuming dividends are reinvested (ass...
by whiteprius
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1326
Views: 114155

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Absolutely not unless you're certain you can quickly flip it for a material profit. The Tesla is a relatively unreliable status car and there's no need to add range anxiety to your list of life concerns. If you want Tesla status, get a used 2014 or so with an extended warranty so you can pretend you...
by whiteprius
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund: explain please 'average effective maturity' vs. 'average duration'
Replies: 5
Views: 753

Re: Bond fund: explain please 'average effective maturity' vs. 'average duration'

For some reason, Bogleheads users like to provide links instead of answering a simple question so let me part from the pack. A bond's weighted average maturity is the weighted average of the time to its payments. So if a bond will pay a coupon of $10 in 3 years and coupon and principal of $110 in 4 ...
by whiteprius
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reminder - if you're carrying credit card debt at low int. rates, you're using dangerous margin
Replies: 7
Views: 1157

Reminder - if you're carrying credit card debt at low int. rates, you're using dangerous margin

I know someone who has about $60,000 of credit card debt, all at 0% interest rates for 12 months. He pays about $900 a month on this debt, and when this 0% rate expires he expects to roll it over to other credit cards that offer a 0% interest for 12 months on balance transfers, and he plans to keep ...
by whiteprius
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on food per month, per person?
Replies: 151
Views: 11426

Re: How much do you spend on food per month, per person?

As a result of this thread I'm shooting for $300 a month per person.
by whiteprius
Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin futures with Fidelity
Replies: 25
Views: 3108

Re: Bitcoin futures with Fidelity

Edit: Are you planning to short or long?
by whiteprius
Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question About TIPs and TIP Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 2692

Re: Question About TIPs and TIP Funds

2. The fund yield is a good estimator for the expected real return over a time period whose length matches the duration, not a cherry-picked shorter timeframe. TIPS don't pay you the real interest rate; they pay inflation. The real interest rate plus inflation = the nominal rate, or the rate paid b...
by whiteprius
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 191
Views: 21774

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Here you go: "Bitcoin, PayPal Used to Finance Terrorism, Indonesian Agency Says" https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-paypal-used-to-finance-terrorism-indonesian-agency-says-1483964198 It has to be something bigger, like a big attack that's tied to crypto currency financing. In other news, the UK f...
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 30
Views: 2795

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

lol at the attempted post-hoc rationalizations, e.g. of the 80s as "tight money high inflation" and ignoring the Vietnam war, among other things. And who knew WW1 lasted so long? If you look at the graph, you'll see that almost all of the snapbacks were sudden, very violent (those are very steep lin...
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 30
Views: 2795

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

There is no such thing as a "natural" level. It depends on the rest of the economical environment. There is a natural level, the level the rubber band has snapped back to over the last 120 years and that's around 15. It might be a little higher or a little lower, but it's not the 20+ we're in now. ...
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 191
Views: 21774

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

The value of blockchain technology will not boost BTC's value. You can have blockchain without BTC. Also, of course Deutche Bank and others are making crypto exchanges. They want a fee on whatever's moving in the economy. Now show me a serious corporation that has invested a lot in crypto.
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question About TIPs and TIP Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 2692

Re: Question About TIPs and TIP Funds

I haven't checked the yields on specific TIPs maturities recently, but both Vanguard TIPs funds have positive 30-day SEC yields at present. This very likely translates to a positive expected real return over a period of time corresponding to fund duration. On the other hand, cash has a negative exp...
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question About TIPs and TIP Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 2692

Re: Question About TIPs and TIP Funds

The notion that a TIPS fund protects against inflation is totally wrong, especially in a rising rate environment. See graph below for the 12-month returns of FBIDX (a safe bond fund) and SCHP (a TIPS fund). I never understood the point of a TIPS mutual fund. I get investing in a single TIPs security...
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 30
Views: 2795

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

One gets the sense that the market's P/E can't really expand too much from here forward, leaving earnings growth to be the main driver of price returns in the years just ahead. P/E is not only unlikely to expand but it will shrink. To understand the OP's chart you have to read it in conjunction wit...
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Uber vs Ambulance - HUGE cost difference
Replies: 85
Views: 12297

Re: Uber vs Ambulance - HUGE cost difference

This is smart. I recommend everyone read their byzantine medical insurance policy to see exactly how much a trip to the ER costs for anticipated emergencies. You'd be surprised that two ER's right next to each other can result in a hugely different cost depending on your insurer's network. One night...
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 191
Views: 21774

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

It's up to 17,500 today. I think the top will be $17,500. The only rational conclusion is that the top is where it's currently at. Because there is no logical reason for this increase. 1. There is nothing bitcoin can't do as a currency that the dollar or other traditional currencies can't do, except...
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reached 50X annual spending. Now what?
Replies: 56
Views: 7138

Re: Reached 50X annual spending. Now what?

I remember seeing adidas basketball sneakers for the first time as a kid. No one had ever seen leather sneakers before, and I wanted them desperately. Of course, my parents couldn't afford to buy them. So they bought me a pair of very cheap knockoffs. Trouble is, they had FOUR stripes, not three. I...
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 30
Views: 2795

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

This chart is horrifyingly misleading and you should edit the OP. Why? Because it fails to reflect that P/E ratios in the early 90s were BELOW their historic average whereas P/E ratios now are wayyyyy above their historic average. So your chart makes it seem like P/E ratios are not inflated. They ar...
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to deal with Micro-manager
Replies: 42
Views: 4612

Re: How to deal with Micro-manager

If I could offer some reality to this thread . . . Writing about these issues on here won't help and neither will any advice you get. The solution is to accept the truth that when you're an employee, you have very little rights. You need to submit to the boss's authority completely and totally, unti...
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lexus RX 350 - new vs. preowned
Replies: 29
Views: 3163

Re: Lexus RX 350 - new vs. preowned

I purchased a Lexus Rx350 with a navigation system for my company fleet for $42k in 2010. I sold the vehicle AT AUCTION in 2013 with 105k miles for $26k. Personally, I was stunned at how much the vehicle brought. I had offered it to a company employee for $22k but he rejected that price as outrageo...
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reached 50X annual spending. Now what?
Replies: 56
Views: 7138

Re: Reached 50X annual spending. Now what?

I'd get a bunch of cosmetic surgery and other health expenses to try and look 50 again, maybe even 40 again if you're lucky. They say you only live once but sometimes you can live twice.
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need to find a Used/Refurbished Macbook Air
Replies: 24
Views: 2056

Re: Need to find a Used/Refurbished Macbook Air

Sorry, don’t mean to be snide but is this a joke!? Did you read the description of this “great deal?” No better way to saddle a student with a low productivity debt than to buy this. I’d rather have pen and paper. Pen and paper is even better. I heard a rumor that these modern computers come with a...
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lexus RX 350 - new vs. preowned
Replies: 29
Views: 3163

Re: Lexus RX 350 - new vs. preowned

When I purchased my first really nice car, a +$100k car, I realized that as fancy and new as the car is on the first day -- eventually it feels like a used car. Doesn't take long either, maybe six months to a year. By then it's just another car that you'll be tired of, regardless of how much you lik...
by whiteprius
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need to find a Used/Refurbished Macbook Air
Replies: 24
Views: 2056

Re: Need to find a Used/Refurbished Macbook Air

All she needs it for is to take notes and write papers, so there's no need to waste $800 on a Macbook Air. That's for games, youtube, instragram, tweeter, pornography and other modern nonsense; it ain't for academics. Explain to her that the $800 could be earning her interest in a mutual fund and pr...
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Can all future replies state how much you personally have in the S&P 500? What we have here is you knew my bet, but I don't know yours.
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Wouldn't it be funny if the S&P went on a huge bear run starting with today? I'll frame that article if that happens.
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

The SP500 hasn't gone down 5% today or even close to that so why is it even relevant today? I don't know. The fact that the S&P is on its longest no 5% loss streak in history, combined with the high P/E ratios ... all tilted things to make it seem like it was due for a fall. In light of the stress ...
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

barnaclebob wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:27 pm

Why did it take an article for you to come to know public information?
Do you really claim to know all public information?
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

slow n steady wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:25 pm

whiteprius

You posted the above comment on December 12. Is this what caused you to get back in the action?

Good luck.
Thought it was a sure thing.
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

But you were absolutely certain it was going up today. How does your brain handle this paradox? Is this a teaching moment for you? Or have you already forgotten your certain prediction from yesterday? No I wasn't, that's why I got out last night saving me from a four figure loss today. I can get ou...
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: any sense in purchasing an annuity before retirement?
Replies: 35
Views: 2740

Re: any sense in purchasing an annuity before retirement?

Hmm...I've categorically heard, "avoid variable annuities," so I don't think I want to lean in that direction. I'm not sure, either, I understand mortality credits -- have to research that. Anyway, below is what inspired my question: Suppose, for the sake of a nice round number $1,000,000. If I put...
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:05 pm

But you were absolutely certain it was going up today.

How does your brain handle this paradox? Is this a teaching moment for you? Or have you already forgotten your certain prediction from yesterday?
No I wasn't, that's why I got out last night saving me from a four figure loss today.
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

28% I'll probably move some into stocks. If it rises 60% and drops 30% I would still move into stocks. Remember I can't sell my HYB funds until 6 mos. to a year after the crash any way, thus allowing things to settle. What is your strategy for a 30% drop? Surely you'll liquidate some of your other i...
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: any sense in purchasing an annuity before retirement?
Replies: 35
Views: 2740

Re: any sense in purchasing an annuity before retirement?

SPIA's offer mortality credits when purchased in one's mid 70's and up. Variable annuities are fee sucking vacum cleaners siphoning your money into the hands of the insurance agent. You can do better usually holding low cost diversified index funds with an asset allocation that meets your requireme...
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: any sense in purchasing an annuity before retirement?
Replies: 35
Views: 2740

Re: any sense in purchasing an annuity before retirement?

This is not good advice. I don't recommend mixing insurance (the annuity is longevity insurance) with investing. Many don't like variable annuities, but historically, over the long-term, they have paid more investment income (and thus a higher monthly benefit) than SPIA's. That's why they blew up i...
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

He does have a point, though, as nearly all of us believe that the expected value of holding the S&P 500 long term is positive. If I could own shares in it every day from 9:45a to 3:45p without ever putting up any money of my own or paying any interest I would totally do it. The problem of course i...
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

I have heard many variants of this argument right before clients blew themselves up. 20 years is a very short period statistically speaking. Back-testing often hides risks when there have been secular changes. I have seen this go wrong so many times so many different ways. Overconfidence kills. Lac...
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: any sense in purchasing an annuity before retirement?
Replies: 35
Views: 2740

Re: any sense in purchasing an annuity before retirement?

They make sense for people like you, who don't want to bother with investing and who want a stable source of income, but try to get one indexed to inflation so you can be completely worry free and of course only buy from the highest rated gigantic insurers. Also, consider waiting a year to see how t...
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Given you've already lost $177k through bad decisions in a bull market No the $177k loss guy (I think it was $117k) is another person who posted a different thread. Ppl are getting us confused. He bet on health-related stocks on margin longer-term. But the rest of what you wrote is true. Small intr...
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

BogleMelon wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:45 pm
And you were so sure that it would be higher today. How many other predication you have it wrong? :oops:
Yeah I just took margin off my account. Now if I want to get into the S&P I have to sell funds, wait 2 days for the cash to settle . . . so no more morning temptation of a free $1,000 today.
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

David Jay wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:43 pm

Correct. No amateur should ever day trade on margin.
That's fair. I took margin off my account. Investing is already worrisome enough without having to worry about margin calls.
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

I am not sure where to begin. Bogleheads use passive investing because the market portfolio - (holding a portfolio that reflects the market) - has historically been one of the most efficient portfolios (best return for unit of risk taken). We take the long view and our tilts tend to be modest. This...
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

David Jay wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:28 pm

You say that but I am pretty confident that you still don't get it. YOU are the amateur here. Some professional trader on Wall Street was willing to sell you those shares.
By that logic no one should ever buy shares.
by whiteprius
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 7691

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Everybody in the world expected the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ to go up today. With all due respect, who the hell do you think sold you 6-figure amounts of SPY then? Do you think it was a charitable donation to the whiteprius fund? SPY is not penny-wide on the bid/offer because the entire world is in agr...