Search found 1285 matches

by pdavi21
Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND risky?
Replies: 23
Views: 2652

Re: BND risky?

There are many different interest rates inside BND. I don't think it typically loses more than a few percent in a bad year.

I think BNDW might be a little less risky. It has had lower volatility and has less exposure to US federal reserve policy.
by pdavi21
Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to use limit orders / do I need limit orders?
Replies: 61
Views: 3742

Re: How to use limit orders / do I need limit orders?

You shouldn't ever need limit orders. If you frequently do large trades on illiquid holdings, they'd be necessary, but otherwise, they will just conspire with your subconcious to lose your money. If you are worried about market orders going haywire, put in a generous limit order that will get execut...
by pdavi21
Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not Experiencing Any Problems With Vanguard
Replies: 90
Views: 7284

Re: Not Experiencing Any Problems With Vanguard

I agree with the disagreements to my post. If you desire Vanguard Funds other than ETFs, there is currently a benefit to remain at Vanguard. Also, they were early to do free ETF trades.
by pdavi21
Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not Experiencing Any Problems With Vanguard
Replies: 90
Views: 7284

Re: Not Experiencing Any Problems With Vanguard

There is just nothing right with them any more. You can trade Vanguard ETFs anywhere else free. What advantage does their brokerage have anymore? I still am 100% Vanguard (where I have a choice). Only problem was changing my wife's name. The brokerage problems were a bit scary, but didn't affect me ...
by pdavi21
Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?
Replies: 167
Views: 16427

Re: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?

Because corporate bonds have higher yields and have the chance to perform differently than a representative mix of stocks and bonds.
by pdavi21
Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recommendations of 100% stock lately
Replies: 246
Views: 18507

Re: Recommendations of 100% stock lately

Emergency Funds are just another form of bucket accounting. It reduces your risk without admitting it's part of your AA.

Everyone should have the means to handle job loss, but it doesn't have to be 100% cash. Probably shouldn't be 100% stocks either.
by pdavi21
Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rebalancing Strategies That Are Tax-Efficient Too"
Replies: 6
Views: 873

Re: "Rebalancing Strategies That Are Tax-Efficient Too"

Good advice.

Keeping your assets a little spread out helps as well. For example I plan on keeping a bit of INTL stock in taxable even though it is my most tax efficient holding. This way, if I ever need to re-balance out of it without TGH, I have some wiggle room.
by pdavi21
Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recommendations of 100% stock lately
Replies: 246
Views: 18507

Re: Recommendations of 100% stock lately

we can't go a day without hearing that Buffett says everyone should be 90% in the S&P 500 and that bonds are a bad investment. I always thought this was highly irresponsible, especially since he is incapable of putting himself in the shoes of someone with relatively meager assets. His assets are no...
by pdavi21
Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FSKAX vs VTSAX
Replies: 10
Views: 2127

Re: FSKAX vs VTSAX

Neither, but they are nearly the same.

I like VTI for taxable and FZROX for tax advantaged.
The zero fund for US total is close enough.
However, I would still go FTIHX or (VEA + VWO) (EDIT: or IXUS) over FZILX for INTL.
by pdavi21
Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 117
Views: 16630

Re: Long Term Bonds getting killed today

They will probably fall to 2017-2018 levels again, if not lower.
They are very volatile over shorter term intervals.

I hold a lot, but I'd still rather be re-balancing out than in on a day/month/year/(maybe even decade) like this.
by pdavi21
Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy
Replies: 148
Views: 8694

Re: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy

Most people would start by dividing the national debt by GDP or some other relevant metric. Usually, when the debt rises, the economy (and possibly stock market) does slightly better because it means gov't stimulus. The most recent balanced budget came right before one of the worst decades for US st...
by pdavi21
Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Domestic v. International Megathread
Replies: 64
Views: 4305

Re: Domestic v. International Megathread

May as well pin this thread (or any of the others), so people can argue without having to create new threads.
by pdavi21
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retail investors are re-balancing - NOT bailing on stocks
Replies: 18
Views: 1969

Re: Retail investors are re-balancing - NOT bailing on stocks

There were net outflows in 2018 too. No gains to re-balance.
by pdavi21
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to treasuries in 2008?
Replies: 22
Views: 1751

Re: What happened to treasuries in 2008?

MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:43 pm
pdavi21 wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:40 pm They went up a little, then did nothing for a decade.

No benefit over total bond market funds.
Long bonds are a different story.
They are also a different topic.
by pdavi21
Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to treasuries in 2008?
Replies: 22
Views: 1751

Re: What happened to treasuries in 2008?

They went up a little, then did nothing for a decade.

No benefit over total bond market funds.
by pdavi21
Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Domestic v. International Megathread
Replies: 64
Views: 4305

Re: Domestic v. International Megathread

Domestic stocks are sometimes better for taxes (sometimes worse) and they have less volatility from currency effects.

Other than that, the US is just one country to split out. Nothing particularly unique about the US stock market besides its large market cap.
by pdavi21
Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged Equity - “Bull Markets Die on Euphoria”
Replies: 35
Views: 2240

Re: Leveraged Equity - “Bull Markets Die on Euphoria”

There certainly is interest in leverage here on Bogleheads forum. It seens like there are impatient people who want to FIRE NOW. That's the truth! I often wonder why people who choose decidedly non-boglehead investing strategies feel compelled to come here to talk about it. I don’t see using levera...
by pdavi21
Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recommendations of 100% stock lately
Replies: 246
Views: 18507

Re: Recommendations of 100% stock lately

It's part greed and part low yields.

"Recency bias" is a strange term because it implies that if you backtest further, you get smarter.
by pdavi21
Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain in simple English the current liquidity headline?
Replies: 7
Views: 761

Re: Can someone explain in simple English the current liquidity headline?

It's "not QE".
The main difference between QE and "not QE" is that the Federal Reserve said so.
by pdavi21
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: when in TY to perform Roth conversions
Replies: 5
Views: 532

Re: when in TY to perform Roth conversions

SpideyIndexer wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:12 pm A variant is to make a big "conservative" conversion early in the year followed by a smaller one late in the year when one's financial picture for the tax year is more complete to allow one to get closer to a MAGI threshold.
I like this one.
by pdavi21
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged Equity - “Bull Markets Die on Euphoria”
Replies: 35
Views: 2240

Re: Leveraged Equity - “Bull Markets Die on Euphoria”

I think the market probably needs some turbulence or rising interest rates to prevent the LETF crowd from getting their free lunch.
However, if there is euphoria, it's only in US stocks (and the LETF crowd isn't buying INTL LETFs).
by pdavi21
Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index Myth
Replies: 47
Views: 5133

Re: The Index Myth

It's lies, but for a good cause.
by pdavi21
Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retiring at 24 - Extreme FIRE is it possible?
Replies: 158
Views: 13705

Re: Retiring at 24 - Extreme FIRE is it possible?

Yes. It is possible. So far I have spent under 20k per year on average (currently under 13k) and also have a family of 4. How? Can you share your actual annual expenses over the last couple years? For the past 37 to 44 months: 5K property Taxes 9.7K medical 5k travel 3.7k utilities 24.6k credit car...
by pdavi21
Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retiring at 24 - Extreme FIRE is it possible?
Replies: 158
Views: 13705

Re: Retiring at 24 - Extreme FIRE is it possible?

Yes. It is possible. So far I have spent under 20k per year on average (currently under 13k) and also have a family of 4. How? Can you share your actual annual expenses over the last couple years? For the past 37 to 44 months: 5K property Taxes 9.7K medical 5k travel 3.7k utilities 24.6k credit car...
by pdavi21
Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retiring at 24 - Extreme FIRE is it possible?
Replies: 158
Views: 13705

Re: Retiring at 24 - Extreme FIRE is it possible?

Yes. It is possible. So far I have spent under 20k per year on average (currently under 13k) and also have a family of 4. What is strange is why someone would do it. Why not make 1-2 million before retiring if it only took you a little while to get over 700k? I think the reason is that person wants ...
by pdavi21
Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI P/E 20.9x vs VIOV 15x, price/book 3.0x vs 1.4x
Replies: 37
Views: 2496

Re: VTI P/E 20.9x vs VIOV 15x, price/book 3.0x vs 1.4x

FWIW, index providers like S&P typically calculated earnings by aggregating the entirety of all the companies, so if a company has negative earnings it actually detracts from the positive earnings of other companies in the index. For the small-cap S&P 600 index they report the past 4 completed quar...
by pdavi21
Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Indexing bubble
Replies: 31
Views: 3581

Re: Passive Indexing bubble

In order for there to be a passive investing bubble, there should be net purchases of an asset class by passive investors. Otherwise, something else is causing the bubble (assuming there is a bubble at all). EDIT: Also, the Russell 2000 has a PE ratio around 200-400. Where exactly are the small valu...
by pdavi21
Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Estimated Year-End Distributions
Replies: 71
Views: 8675

Re: Vanguard Q4 2019 Estimated Year-End distributions posted

Thanks. I wonder if they have estimates for Foreign Tax Credit yet.
by pdavi21
Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A surge in the market next year?
Replies: 37
Views: 2294

Re: A surge in the market next year?

No (EDIT: I really mean maybe, but not in any way we can reliably predict). Even if a trade "deal" happens before the election, something else could occur that impacts the market more meaningfully. I don't think the current tariffs are that large, but I have trouble looking them up without getting h...
by pdavi21
Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: December 6, 2019--Vanguard Releases 2020 Economic and Market Outlook Report
Replies: 84
Views: 6180

Re: December 6, 2019--Vanguard Releases 2020 Economic and Market Outlook Report

I don't recall prior economic outlooks from Vanguard having this much BS in them. Do we really need a chart forecasting the impact of Brexit on the UK Economy or one for industrial production in emerging economies in Europe and South Africa? It looks like they have also added US Growth, Large, Value...
by pdavi21
Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Process vs. Results:
Replies: 30
Views: 2153

Re: Process vs. Results:

Here's a thought: 1. A good process fails. 2. What made it a good process? I'll bite. My brother is an excellent online poker player. He has a positive EV in his play. So do his poker playing friends who also have a positive EV. They all have this edge in poker by having a strong process for playin...
by pdavi21
Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merrill Edge is Going Commission-Free
Replies: 20
Views: 2380

Re: Merrill Edge is Going Commission-Free

I have been ~100% Vanguard for a very long time.

They are close to getting my business. Between the free trades, signup bonus, and credit card rewards, I'm nearly there.

EDIT: Of course, considering how addictive credit card churning is, I'll probably get addicted to brokerage churning too.
by pdavi21
Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Process vs. Results:
Replies: 30
Views: 2153

Re: Process vs. Results:

Here's a thought:
1. A good process fails.
2. What made it a good process?
by pdavi21
Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Process vs. Results:
Replies: 30
Views: 2153

Re: Process vs. Results:

I see. No True Good Process would fail to prevail over a long period of time. PJW It's not a logical fallacy to measure a process by it's results. Nice try though. You're entirely incorrect with respect to your post I responded to, for the reason I linked, but we're so far apart I don't know any us...
by pdavi21
Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Process vs. Results:
Replies: 30
Views: 2153

Re: Process vs. Results:

... Anything can happen over a short period of time. Over a long period of time, good processes will prevail. If they don't, they weren't good. Making money on a bad process makes an investor dumber. So there is a behavioral aspect too. I see. No True Good Process would fail to prevail over a long ...
by pdavi21
Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Process vs. Results:
Replies: 30
Views: 2153

Re: Process vs. Results:

Results are better. It's a common misconception that results are somehow going to be different than process. Good process = good results. Bad process = bad results. If you wait long enough, you will get exactly the results you earn. Nonsense. You could have bet all your life savings on amazon a dec...
by pdavi21
Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What return is Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund returning?
Replies: 21
Views: 1875

Re: What return is Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund returning?

High Yield Savings accounts are better again. If you are moving money, I would go for a 2%+ HYS. VMMXX, VMFXX, and VUSXX (depending on state taxes) are probably the best if you must have a money market account, but are all around 1.7. What’s a 2% HYS? A High-Yield Savings account that yields 2%. Ci...
by pdavi21
Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Process vs. Results:
Replies: 30
Views: 2153

Re: Process vs. Results:

... Anything can happen over a short period of time. Over a long period of time, good processes will prevail. If they don't, they weren't good. Making money on a bad process makes an investor dumber. So there is a behavioral aspect too. I see. No True Good Process would fail to prevail over a long ...
by pdavi21
Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retail investors selling US stocks at record levels/WSJ article 12/8/19
Replies: 26
Views: 4021

Re: Retail investors selling US stocks at record levels/WSJ article 12/8/19

Is there a reason mutual funds and pensions are continually selling stocks for 5 years straight?

EDIT: I wonder how this relates to the big scary "passive investing bubble". :oops:
by pdavi21
Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You should own Int'l stocks for the same reason Bogle says you shouldn't
Replies: 74
Views: 5387

Re: You should own Int'l stocks for the same reason Bogle says you shouldn't

Yes, I suppose. Random thought I just had. When people say the US is overvalued (which from a historically perspective, the valuations do seem to be higher), are they saying that GM, Ford, Exxon, and Coca-Cola have higher valuations than Toyota, Volkswagen, Shell, and Nestlé? I think a pretty strong...
by pdavi21
Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What return is Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund returning?
Replies: 21
Views: 1875

Re: What return is Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund returning?

High Yield Savings accounts are better again.
If you are moving money, I would go for a 2%+ HYS.
VMMXX, VMFXX, and VUSXX (depending on state taxes) are probably the best if you must have a money market account, but are all around 1.7.
by pdavi21
Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So is everyone just ignoring the yield curve inversion and upcoming recession?
Replies: 56
Views: 4127

Re: So is everyone just ignoring the yield curve inversion and upcoming recession?

It was a very sexy story when the market was falling. The 5 and 3 years barely swapped and everyone got excited. Then quietly, as the market was rising, the yield curve pretty much fully inverted. Now, as the market continues to hit new highs, it is essentially back to normal. EDIT: It will be diffe...
by pdavi21
Sun Dec 08, 2019 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI P/E 20.9x vs VIOV 15x, price/book 3.0x vs 1.4x
Replies: 37
Views: 2496

Re: VTI P/E 20.9x vs VIOV 15x, price/book 3.0x vs 1.4x

There are several different ways for calculating the aggregate "earnings" or P/E ratio for a portfolio of multiple stocks. There are good reasons different people might calculate different ways. You may not like the methodology some use, but you not understanding how the methodology is done/calcula...
by pdavi21
Sun Dec 08, 2019 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI P/E 20.9x vs VIOV 15x, price/book 3.0x vs 1.4x
Replies: 37
Views: 2496

Re: VTI P/E 20.9x vs VIOV 15x, price/book 3.0x vs 1.4x

FWIW, index providers like S&P typically calculated earnings by aggregating the entirety of all the companies, so if a company has negative earnings it actually detracts from the positive earnings of other companies in the index. For the small-cap S&P 600 index they report the past 4 completed quar...
by pdavi21
Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI P/E 20.9x vs VIOV 15x, price/book 3.0x vs 1.4x
Replies: 37
Views: 2496

Re: VTI P/E 20.9x vs VIOV 15x, price/book 3.0x vs 1.4x

FWIW, index providers like S&P typically calculated earnings by aggregating the entirety of all the companies, so if a company has negative earnings it actually detracts from the positive earnings of other companies in the index. For the small-cap S&P 600 index they report the past 4 completed quar...
by pdavi21
Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI P/E 20.9x vs VIOV 15x, price/book 3.0x vs 1.4x
Replies: 37
Views: 2496

Re: VTI P/E 20.9x vs VIOV 15x, price/book 3.0x vs 1.4x

There are several different ways for calculating the aggregate "earnings" or P/E ratio for a portfolio of multiple stocks. There are good reasons different people might calculate different ways. You may not like the methodology some use, but you not understanding how the methodology is done/calcula...
by pdavi21
Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI P/E 20.9x vs VIOV 15x, price/book 3.0x vs 1.4x
Replies: 37
Views: 2496

Re: VTI P/E 20.9x vs VIOV 15x, price/book 3.0x vs 1.4x

There are several different ways for calculating the aggregate "earnings" or P/E ratio for a portfolio of multiple stocks. There are good reasons different people might calculate different ways. You may not like the methodology some use, but you not understanding how the methodology is done/calcula...
by pdavi21
Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI P/E 20.9x vs VIOV 15x, price/book 3.0x vs 1.4x
Replies: 37
Views: 2496

Re: VTI P/E 20.9x vs VIOV 15x, price/book 3.0x vs 1.4x

VBR is based on a CRSP index and has a whole lot of Mid-Caps in it. VIOV is based upon the S&P 600 Small Cap Value Index and is truly Small Cap, S&P screens for companies that actually have earnings. What is really weird is that VIOV has an expense ratio of 0.20% and a 4 star rating from Morningsta...
by pdavi21
Sun Dec 08, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16530

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

Predicting how one country will perform relative to the rest of the countries is an odd premise.

I think there are funds that weight countries by relative CAPE valuations or something. That would make more sense than just picking the largest country to compare and make bets.