Search found 332 matches

by dukeblue219
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think I may Cut the Cord - help me with phone
Replies: 16
Views: 764

Re: I think I may Cut the Cord - help me with phone

I see a lot of older people very focused on landlines. Meanwhile, no one my age has one and seems to get by just fine. 58% of households do not have a landline and the number keeps plummeting. My parents keep one they never use "in case the power goes out" along with an old wired phone. Honestly at...
by dukeblue219
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: i cannot help myself anymore [buy the dip?]
Replies: 44
Views: 3423

Re: i cannot help myself anymore

Realize that a drop in stock price does not necessarily imply a discount. This. Stocks aren't 20% off and guaranteed to go back to MSRP. They will eventually regain past levels, but not necessarily grow faster from here than they otherwise would have. Expiring meat is often on sale at the grocer. D...
by dukeblue219
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Administration announces "only" 100,000 dead will be a success, lockdown measures to continue for at least another month (surely will be more), unemployment 3m+..... and the market opens higher? I am now 100% reassured in my conviction that I know nothing :-) None of that has really changed since F...
by dukeblue219
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is best option for freeing up a lot of cash?
Replies: 28
Views: 1308

Re: What is best option for freeing up a lot of cash?

Personally I would change the 15 into a 30 since the interest rate will be pretty similar and you won't add debt like a cash out. Pay it down faster than 30 if you'd like, but you'll have a lot more flexibility. Not the solution for everyone, but budget flexibility is great if you think you'll need ...
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's worth paying more for?
Replies: 30
Views: 2288

Re: What's worth paying more for?

Extra legroom on a plane.
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

nigel_ht wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:08 pm
Based on what?

Both have enough cash or credit lines to pay opex till this is over. And the share price is already higher than when I bought it (CCL $8.28 when purchased. $14 Friday). If they go down, VTI will be down more.
When do you expect Carnival to turn a quarterly profit?
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Not a clue how many will exist, but I’ll own the ones that do! There will be winners and losers in all this, that is the way of things. Always will be. No doubt. I too am just continuing my contributions each paycheck, and what's already in my retirement funds hasn't changed. For all the things I t...
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

, we can start to see businesses opening up in early May with moderate confidence. I guess the next question is when businesses are allowed to open up, how many will continue to be unprofitable for months or years? I can't fathom any major dine in restaurant chain making profit, nor movie theaters,...
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

/shrug. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to go “hmmm...RCL and CCL are both down 80%. Unlikely that they go out of business. That’s a safe enough bet. Same for XOM and DAL. And a 10% portfolio bet that he made is reasonable. It’s not too much to lose and enough that winning a couple cycles makes ...
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

This is the beginning of the end IMO. Shelter in place will be history in some states within 4 weeks at this rate. But keep up the doom n gloom, loving the prices I’m able to buy at right now. I hope you're right but it feels optimistic. There's been a lot of articles lately explain that the testin...
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:13 pm
rascott wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:01 pm
Odds we hit limit down tonight??
The US 'guidelines' were extended to, at minimum, April 30. If that wasn't priced in, it soon will be.
I would generally guess that "the market" already assumed as much despite any comments that hinted to the contrary.
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unicorn mortgage still just a dream
Replies: 13
Views: 1799

Re: Unicorn mortgage still just a dream

Our closing last week was handled by a traveling notary who came to our house. She was allowed to work under our states restrictions as a financial services exception. We did it on the porch at a comfortable distance, didn't shake hands, and used new pens. She avoided touching our IDs. The paperwork...
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much cash do you keep at home?
Replies: 113
Views: 6289

Re: how much cash do you keep at home?

A couple hundred in a fire-resistant pouch where we keep our vital documents. It's not enough to really care if the house was burglarized, but enough to pay for something in a pinch if I had to. I don't even know what that situation would be, but the idea is that if we had to evacuate the house imme...
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard individual HSAs?
Replies: 15
Views: 998

Re: Vanguard individual HSAs?

I'm another Fidelity user. Their HSA is great and the overall platform works very well for me. If you want Vanguard ETFs (or other ETFs) and the simplicity of a single custodian I would say move everything over to Fido and keep it there. Only reason to stick with V is their mutual funds, which are $...
by dukeblue219
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I refinance my 2yr old mortgage?
Replies: 2
Views: 401

Re: Should I refinance my 2yr old mortgage?

Get a quote. That's the only way to know. We just refi'd to 2.875 fixed for 30 years and got a credit to do so (i.e. No cash out of pocket).

Your current rate is really high compared to pretty much any time in the last decade. I don't know why you wouldn't.
by dukeblue219
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I have stuck with the Target 2045 fund?
Replies: 26
Views: 1559

Re: Should I have stuck with the Target 2045 fund?

I looked up Fidelity Freedom 2045 and was surprised to see its now at 93/7 AA. Wow.
by dukeblue219
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I have stuck with the Target 2045 fund?
Replies: 26
Views: 1559

Re: Should I have stuck with the Target 2045 fund?

Don't let the target date funds change the way YOU want YOUR money invested. 60/40 works well enough for almost anyone that isn't retired, and sounds just about right for a 40 year old. If you can stomach it a little more equities is probably fine, but 90/10 is pretty high unless you specifically de...
by dukeblue219
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Shopping List of Individual Stocks]
Replies: 48
Views: 3075

Re: Shopping List

Does the news about an instacart strike change your opinion of grub? Honestly, no idea. I'm not buying the idea that restaurants are doomed but I think it's reasonable to guess that delivery will be more common for the next few years than it already was. Then again, the rest of the market already k...
by dukeblue219
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SP500 PE is still above average 3/28/2020
Replies: 12
Views: 982

Re: SP500 PE is still above average 3/28/2020

Agree that interest rates play into this a lot. I think aside from the question of what the E actually is, expecting a P/E below 20 is a stretch given 0% interest rates on treasuries. That's a 5% risk premium for stocks which is on the high end. On the low side, a 3-3.5% risk premium would support a...
by dukeblue219
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stand Mixer
Replies: 43
Views: 1815

Re: Stand Mixer

It's worth getting one of the better models that has metal gears (Pro, but do your own research to be sure) and the lift bowl in my opinion. They're also powerful enough to grind meat easily, which is what I use my wife's mixer for.

If you have the counter space it's worthwhile.
by dukeblue219
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Shopping List of Individual Stocks]
Replies: 48
Views: 3075

Re: Shopping List

I don't actually recommend this strategy, but in the interest of general discussion VISA and GRUB. People are only going to use credit cards (contactlessly) more and order home delivery more. I also like BRKB for their cash that they can deploy for opportunities never available to mutual funds (buyi...
by dukeblue219
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a risk of US currency collapse with trillion-dollar stimulus?
Replies: 28
Views: 2682

Re: Is there a risk of US currency collapse with trillion-dollar stimulus?

Right now the most desired asset in the world is the US dollar. Seriously. Never say never, but there's no sign that the world will suddenly decide to use the Euro as the be all end all currency. Why would they? There's a reason we can borrow for 30 years at laughably low rates. Second, a few trilli...
by dukeblue219
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

There's our daily post-3:30 dramatic move.
by dukeblue219
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Owner financed mortgage question
Replies: 8
Views: 583

Re: Owner financed mortgage question

If you're just talking simple interest, $555x12=6660/year.

$6660/$226,000=2.95%
by dukeblue219
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My LenderFi refinance is going well
Replies: 224
Views: 24765

Re: My LenderFi refinance is going well

This week we closed on our 2.875% 30 year with Lenderfi. We received $1300 back at closing (this improved from final estimate to closing docs) and the only thing rolled into the new loan was escrow, which we'd have to pay anyway. That's $510k loan with something like 70% LTV. No appraisal, no bank s...
by dukeblue219
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Available cash do I buy into the market soon at a discount?
Replies: 18
Views: 914

Re: Available cash do I buy into the market soon at a discount?

I've used variations of this analogy a number of times now, but I'll chime in and ask if the market is really "at a discount" when we know there are very real economic disruptions on going. Are you buying USDA Prime steak at 30% off, or are you buying meat that expired yesterday for 30% less than it...
by dukeblue219
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Much of the bounce over past few days was short covering. Here’s Monday’s headline: US passes 100K cases, in fact this could be tomorrow’s headline! There will be bounces along the way, but without Fed intervention and backstopping, market would be down what? 50-60% It's hard to imagine what the re...
by dukeblue219
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Coming Baby Boom?
Replies: 24
Views: 1569

Re: The Coming Baby Boom?

Start a daycare and charge whatever you want. There will be at least some daycares that close up after this; some because their businesses failed, others because older in-home providers are no longer as comfortable with kids spreading germs. Charge whatever you want because once daycares open back u...
by dukeblue219
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Coming Baby Boom?
Replies: 24
Views: 1569

Re: The Coming Baby Boom?

A bunch of people may end up with their first kid in 9 months, but nobody who already has kids is going to make any more. I'm really not kidding; being stuck in the house with no school, no parks, no stores, no play dates for weeks on end is stressful. It wouldn't surprise me at all if that lowers t...
by dukeblue219
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stock market goes up 5x every 15 years?
Replies: 14
Views: 1306

Re: stock market goes up 5x every 15 years?

the 15th root of 5 is 1.11 or a geometric 11%. I'm too lazy to comment further. You believe that? A bunch of more famouser people also put out future estimates that were pretty low. Your buddy might be a better estimator than the famous guys are, but it's impossible to say right now. There *are* re...
by dukeblue219
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I have a co-worker who is a notoriously accurate market timer (in the opposite direction). He's all money market and planning to "call a broker to ask for advice when the market recovers." If I hear he's going back to stocks I'll be sure to let you know we are heading back down.
by dukeblue219
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

RayKeynes wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:21 am
2400 broken, nice. Lets get down to 2'100 - real quick. :mrgreen:
Unemployment claims coming in 4 minutes. Futures are trending like the market expects a downside surprise.

Edit: 3.28M claims
by dukeblue219
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I'm starting to think that I'm not on Bogleheads.org anymore. Did the whole community just throw their investment philosophy out of the window? Lol. This thread (and it's opposite) are pretty outside the box of the mainstream on this site. Being a Boglehead doesn't mean you can't enjoy watching the...
by dukeblue219
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:02 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm
What the heck happened in the last 15 minutes? :shock:
Short squeezers squeezed all the juice out.
That and new concerns about stimulus.
by dukeblue219
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

2500-2700 on spx for the bear market rally. Hey, negative yields in the US...Yoohooo, told you the party continues. I am going to short big @ 2'550. We touched 2549.20 today. Did you pull the trigger? Yes @ 2'552. Sold VTI and VIOV (30% of portfolio) and bought SPXU. Still a few minutes to go, but ...
by dukeblue219
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:17 pm
squirm wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:12 am
2500-2700 on spx for the bear market rally.

Hey, negative yields in the US...Yoohooo, told you the party continues.
I am going to short big @ 2'550.
We touched 2549.20 today. Did you pull the trigger?
by dukeblue219
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did the Futures open flat?
Replies: 13
Views: 917

Re: Why did the Futures open flat?

With the biggest stimulus in the history of the United States passing, why are the Futures opening flat but yet they had a historic run up yesterday. This reeks of inside information. Am I missing something? It's not inside information. Everyone knew the stimulus was going to pass based on the news...
by dukeblue219
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

peskypesky wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:22 am
Yesterday's rally seems played out already. Futures are down and the bad news keeps increasing...so I'm expecting we keep on dropping.
We were up 900 on the Dow futures this AM but have steadily fallen since, now slightly negative. I'm not at all surprised given yesterday.
by dukeblue219
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best individual etf non retirement
Replies: 3
Views: 271

Re: Best individual etf non retirement

I'd be curious about your goal too. Biotexh, Healthcare, and even QQQ are going to be volatile high risk high reward ETFs holding companies you hear about a lot. Those seem somewhat "fun" to play around with if that's your thing. I don't understand VYM or SDY in a fun money account though. They pay ...
by dukeblue219
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is there a device to connect to a regular phone to make wireless calls?
Replies: 25
Views: 1285

Re: Is there a device to connect to a regular phone to make wireless calls?

I think the poster is asking for a regular (old fashioned) phone that can plug into a box that connects to a mobile/cellular network. I'm not aware of any means to do that.
by dukeblue219
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco Senior hour Tue and Thur
Replies: 70
Views: 5573

Re: Costco Senior hour Tue and Thur

I am a senior and I don't understand the point of senior hours. Are seniors at a disadvantage to shop with everyone else? Yes. You're the group most vulnerable by far to coronavirus. You don't HAVE to shop during the special hours but you have the option to go in first after the store has been disi...
by dukeblue219
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Receiving dividend and feeling good
Replies: 33
Views: 2569

Re: Receiving dividend and feeling good

jb1 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:59 pm
I agree, not sure why many are against them
Because you could just as easily sell 1% of your shares each quarter and it would be exactly the same as a utility yielding 4%, but for people that didn't want to + they could choose not to take the tax hit.

That's pretty much all it comes down to.
by dukeblue219
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Understanding Bank Interest Rates
Replies: 11
Views: 578

Re: Understanding Bank Interest Rates

Look at it this way - the bank is buying money from you. They can get it from the other sources for less now, so they aren't willing to pay as high of a price. They can't turn it around and make loans for as much money either. That's a little boiled down but... The Fed funds rate is the basis for a ...
by dukeblue219
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Buyback: Breaking News
Replies: 25
Views: 3329

Re: Fed Buyback: Breaking News

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:41 am
I noticed over the weekend that Vanguard's Municipal Money Market Fund was over 2%. I think that's from last week's Fed announcement about municipals.
You sure that's accurate? The distributions are close to 1% each. 7 day SEC yield on these can be squirrelly at the end of a quarter.
by dukeblue219
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:24 am
Futures drop appears to be shallowing. A lot.
The Fed promising to buy unlimited debt has flipped this morning 180deg. So far. Edit: Nevermind, that didn't last past the open at all.
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Somehow I missed that we aren't limit down any more and haven't been for over an hour.
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Seasonal wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:33 pm
Corsair wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:12 pm
Stimulus bill has failed. Get ready ladies and gentlemen :twisted:
The current Senate draft failed a procedural vote. Negotiations continue. The initial 2008 bill failed, but a subsequent version passed.
Yeah, that's a relevant comparison, but when that bill failed the S&P fell 8.8%.
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Stimulus bill has failed. Get ready ladies and gentlemen :twisted: Wow. I predict S&P 500 will be at the first circuit breaker by 10AM tomorrow. Not that I'm doing anything more than guessing, but it'll open circuit breaker down yet again UNLESS Congress is sufficiently scared straight to make a bi...
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538546

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

ReformedSpender wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:00 pm
Futs -4%
They pretty much opened limit down 5%. The stimulus bill failing in the senate is not helping.
by dukeblue219
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking about moving Investments to Cash, Need Help
Replies: 25
Views: 1894

Re: Thinking about moving Investments to Cash, Need Help

Good information / insight! Suppose Trump stops all flights / halts Wall Street trading as has been put on the table, has this been done before other than 9/11, and if so, does one still keep their allocation as is? You won't have a choice if that happens, which is actually part of the logic for do...